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SSP Daily Digest: 9/29 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 8:13 AM EDT


  • FL-08: A poll for Sunshine State News, apparently by a firm called Voter Survey Service, finds GOPer Daniel Webster leading Rep. Alan Grayson 43-36. Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is at 6, and independent George Metcalfe takes 3.

  • IL-10: Bob Dold! must have superpowers. That's because Bob Dold! can seemingly exist in two places at once. He claimed the city of Chicago as his "primary residence" from 2004 to 2006, and received a tax credit for doing so... but somehow also claimed the town of Winnetka as his "permanent residence," enabling him to register and vote there during the same time period (which he did). So if I'm wrong and Bob Dold! is actually a mere mortal, it seems like it's either tax fraud or voter fraud. Bob Dold!

  • IL-11: I think this is going to be the last cycle we keep track of this whip count, because now it's becoming routine. The NRA endorsed Debbie Halvorson.

  • NY-20: Yep, definitely the last cycle. The NRA endorsed Scott Murphy, too.

  • PA-08: Yesterday we mentioned there was a Dem pol of this race, but that we lacked the toplines. Well, now we have the memo. A Harstad Research poll for the SEIU and VoteVets has Dem Rep. Patrick Murphy leading Mike Fitzpatrick 49-46 among likely voters. Interestingly, the poll shows slightly larger Murphy leads when an even tighter voter screen is applied.

  • VA-05: Ugh, this again? SurveyUSA's latest in VA-05 is pretty much the same as last time (and the time before that). They have Rob Hurt leading by an eye-popping 58-35 margin, a gap not seen in any other polling. Teabagger Jeffrey Clark takes 4%.

  • NRCC: The NRCC claims to be out with a bunch of internal polls, but they only provide the alleged toplines for races in seven districts. Forget about field dates or margins of error - they don't even bother to tell us who the pollsters are! If you want to know the numbers, you'll have to click the link.

    • SSP TV:

    • KY-Sen: Is mockery better than scolding? Compare this Jack Conway ad, which wryly features seniors saying they "don't know what planet Rand Paul is from" when it comes to his Medicare views, with the Halvorson spot below
    • WV-Sen: John Raese attacks Joe Manchin for being soft on coal and buddies with Barack Obama
    • IL-11: A bunch of seniors scold Adam Kinzinger (on Debbie Halvorson's behalf) for his anti-Social Security views
    • NV-03: Grr... Dina Titus seems to have pulled her latest ad off of YouTube!

    Independent Expenditures:

  • CO-07: American Future Fund drops $560K against Ed Perlmutter

  • A massive stack of DCCC outlays:

    		•
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/29 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 9/29 (Morning Edition) | 242 comments
    Before I state my business
    I ask why no news for Senate and Governor races? No news worthy for the daily digest?

    FL-8 Has anyone heard of the polling company that polled this race? Never heard of them until this day. Anyways with how hard Grayson is attacking Webster I doubt he's down by 7. So I have to take this poll with a grain of salt due to how the results and since I have no idea who the pollster is.

    VA-5 I have a very hard time believing SUSA's numbers since there have been various polls taken since the last time SUSA have polled this race and none of them showed Hurt by over 20, just around 2 or so points. Guess that why this poll dosen't get it's own thread.

    PA-8. Great you found the toplines for that poll.

    Since the NRCC provided little info to the internals I won't bother to read them.

    Regarding FL-08 and VA-05......
    Grayson is dead.  This poll combined with his outrageous ads convince me of that.  The seat is gone.

    SUSA's VA-05 poll just confirms that their polling is very poor this cycle and not at all trustworthy.  I have no idea why they sometimes match other polling in some races and why they're such a bad outlier in so many other races.  But I think it's clear at this point their methodology is a major fail, if they can't stay consistently in the same ballpark of partisan internals.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    FL-8
    I've always considered Grayson unlikely to win, given the district.  Same with Komas in FL-24.
    [ Parent ]
    Actually regarding Kosmas
    She isn't doing too bad as a recent internal showed her up by two over Sandy Adams. Big steach at this point since everyone thought she was DOA the moment she was sworn in.

    As for Grayson with his money and strong views he can pull it out in this purpleish district.

    [ Parent ]
    Grayson's running a theory
    that voters in swing districts prefer Dems with guts over Dems who sometimes vote with the GOP.  I commend him for testing this theory, because I agree with it and have been waiting for a good test case since way back when Howard Dean advanced it in 2004.  But I think those latest ads have sort of broken the experiment.  Lying about your opponent and comparing what by any lights is a moderate Republican to the Taliban don't demonstrate guts, they demonstrate arrogance and jackassery.

    Tom Perriello is also testing this theory, in a quieter sort of way, but he's in a deep red district rather than a swing one, so also not a good test case.  The third test case, Eric Massa, has failed for reasons obviously unconnected with his political views.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    [ Parent ]
    Webster's no moderate
    These results explain the over-the-top ad.  I think Grayson saw that he was trailing and tried to throw a hail mary.
    [ Parent ]
    He is no moderate that is correct
    As for the hail mary, he can do it since he does have a big CoH warchest. So he's got the money to run ads to win over voters and attack Webster.
    [ Parent ]
    that voters in swing districts prefer Dems with guts over Dems who sometimes vote with the GOP
    Well don't they? They always complain that Dems have no spines, Dems have no spines and you vote in one who does and you want to vote him out. I believe Dem and swing voters want a Dem with a spine that's why I think Grayson will pull it out.

    Your right Tom Perriello is doing the same thing but in a quieter way by having a spine but not attacking his opponent with over the top shit but become a Congressman who has a spine in a civil manner. Massa failed because he was too much of a purist for his red Southern Tier district and well you know...weird.

    [ Parent ]
    Swing voters want
    Whatever they want at any given time which is usually the opposite of the status quo. There is a huge difference between standing on principle and behaving like a loud mouth idiot.
    [ Parent ]
    The man isn't a loud mouth idiot
    He's a strong progressive Democrats want. Everyone at SSP, OpenLeft, TPM and DK all talk of how much of a great job he does, that he has a spine and the the mods here said he has huge balls. Thats want people want and that's why I think Grayson will win in the end.
    [ Parent ]
    Agree, but . . .
    you can do that without going out of your way to rub people, particularly non-partisan voters, the wrong way.  Which he's done.
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe the Taliban Dan was a bit too much
    But anything else i've seen him do hasn't been in a way to run non-partisan voters off.
    [ Parent ]
    A bit too much? Are you kidding me?
    The ad was an out right libelous fraud! And more importantly for SSP purposes stupid electoral politics that will cost him a heck of a lot more votes than it wins him.


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    [ Parent ]
    Yeah it was wrong and I mentioned that
    Read below

    But how you view things can be out of whack as well. You think Dick Blumenthal was a slimey fraud for a statement that was taken out of context and also thought DeDe would make a wonderful Congresswoman in NY-23. Makes me scratch me head in regards to you.

    [ Parent ]
    I said Blumenthal would be in trouble in this election and Dede would side a lot with the Dems in Congress
    If I am not mistaken, Blumenthal is in a tight race with McMahon and a lot of it had to do with him running around claiming to be some kind of war hero. That was the start of his decline and the start of this being a real race that the Dems need to be worried about. I said it back then and I stand by it now.

    And Dede would have been the most liberal GOP member of Congress which is why the Tea Party Scozzafavaed her!  

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    [ Parent ]
    and Happy Birthday!!!!!
    n/t

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    [ Parent ]
    Thank you for the Happy B-Day congradulations
    Blumenthal isn't really a tight race, this has been discussed by the SSP mods that because of different methology it looks like McMahon has gained ground but she hasn't since it's been how long since the NYT hit piece (and it was a hit piece whatever you want to believe it or not, it was) and McMahon can't get past thr 45 percent mark. This isn't a race the Dems have to worry about, never was. He's not in a decline because if he was he be losing right about now I said that back then and i'm standing by it like what you are wih your views.

    DeDe would not be the most liberal member of Congress. All she would do different from Hoffman is that she would quietly tow the GOP line and not show and maverick credentials.

    [ Parent ]
    "running around claiming to be some kind of war hero"
    Jesus Christ. No, Blumenthal was not "running around claiming to be some kind of war hero". In respect to the good people of SSP I'm not going to say any more.
    [ Parent ]
    To be ooposed to what most members of your caucus says
    (and votes) requires no less spine then to go contrary to the feelings of majority in your district. May be even more. So i don't consider, say, Minnick or Bright as having "less spine" then Grayson. I am sure voters want consistency in their congressmen voting first, and attention to the needs and feelings of most of the district - second. I don't think their value "party loyalty" equally high.  
    [ Parent ]
    Let me get this straight so I get what your talking about...
    Your logic is that Dems like Gene Taylor, Bobby Bright and Walt Minnick have more of a spine or the same as Grayson because even though they vote againist alot of Dem legislation they listen to their voters and vote their districts. Is that vwhat your getting at?
    [ Parent ]
    Almost.
    Because they withstand an enormous pressure from the leadership and (much more liberal then they are) House Democratic caucus and vote interests of their constituents and their district
    [ Parent ]
    That's what I thought you meant
    Your logic makes sense because they show spine by bucking the leadership and showing their independence by voting down certain pieces of legislation like Walt Minnick and HCR. Sure I didn't like it when he voted againist it but what I have to remermber (and alot of liberals need to remember this) that he's not there to represent me, he's there to represent ID-1 and i'm sure they wouldn't want him voting for this. There in Congress to vote their district and like it or not those guys do. Plus guys like Bright and Minnick are decent guys that quietly vote and don't make a big stink about sticking it to the leadership like what Dan Boren does you know.
    [ Parent ]
    I am essentially a centrist
    but we are in almost 100% agreement here))
    [ Parent ]
    I agree to an extent...
    Which is why I never have any real issue with Ben Nelson bucking the Party.  However the GOP should be supplying votes if they were properly representing their district/states - looking just at the senate Lieberman doesn't represent his state at all, Scott Brown should be to the left of Nelson even as a Republican, Snowe and Collins should be a lot more centrist than they've voted.  

    Dems should be able to lose red state Dems on occasion without issue if the Blue State Republicans didn't vote party line on every issue.  

    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    It's because of that that i lounge sometimes about 1960-1970. With Jacob Javits, Clifford Case, Charles Mathias, Ogden Reid, Donald Riegle (as Republican!), Charles Whalen and many others. It was then that both parties were really "broad tent" parties. Now Democrats preserve that to some extent (though even Bright and Minnick are no match for Larry McDonald, John Rarick, Bob Stump and so on), but Republicans - sigh.....
    [ Parent ]
    Chris Van Hollen
    As a young man, Chris Van Hollen was on the staff of Mac Mathias.
    [ Parent ]
    I have great respect for both of them...

    [ Parent ]
    You see that will never happen with the GOP
    Because even when there just towing the party line thry make the case that there being independent and voting their district by standing up to "Big bad" Obama and Speaker Satan. Plus it also has to do with the fact that they don't give a crap and like being the party of no. Lieberman should be better to his state but he dosen't because he cares about himself and not his state. Scott Brown will not be a moderate because he isn't (he voted againist DADT and I know damn well if Kennedy was still alive and in office he would of voted for it) and he probally  dosen't care because there is that chance he'll lose in two years if he draws a stronger challenger and Snowe and Collins are as about as good as it gets when it comes to a moderate Republican in the Senate. It's sad but true.

    But your logic makes sense as well.

    [ Parent ]
    that's reliant on the assumption they're bucking leadership
    If Nancy Pelosi says, don't worry Bobby we've got the votes so vote no on everything, isn't really bucking the leadership.  Now, when it comes to needing his vote and he still votes with the GOP, then I'll agree that he has a spine of gold independence.

    Although now we're saying people like Lipinski has a spine when he actually is just a douchebag.

    [ Parent ]
    Um
    Do you really think Bright has not bucked the leadership?

    Seriously?

    If we go by your logic, no one is independent unless they're there is a Democrat voting against a bill and that bill fails by one vote.

    Very odd.

    [ Parent ]
    It's not bucking the leadership
    if the leadership is telling you to do whatever you want and they dont care.  You can't "buck" if your "buck" is approved of in advance.
    [ Parent ]
    he does buck the party though
    I didnt okay his vote on HCR  ;)
    [ Parent ]
    Right
    That's some real insider information right there.

    I find it hard to believe that there has not been a time where Bright voted against the wishes of the leadership.

    [ Parent ]
    Going against the Leadership takes spine
    if you're a Republican - not if you're a Democrat, as proven by the lack of any consequences worth discussing to Lieberman for out-and-out betrayal and opposition to his own party's Presidential candidate.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    There is a bright line between "guts" and inflammatory behavior......
    Grayson's behavior comes off as inflammatory rather than courageous, and I'm stunned that his ads reflect his personality rather than the work of a professional campaign.  I think the sentiments on this site are enough to establish that Grayson makes some of his own partisans very uncomfortable with him.  That's a bad place to be, because if you've got a fair share of your own partisans uncomfortable with you, then nonpartisans and soft partisans are largely going to vote against you.

    I hate the comparisons of Grayson to Bachmann and Steve King because Grayson is not a fraction as bad as them, but where it's fair is to point out all these people come off as inflammatory and are not well-liked by all their own partisans, but Bachmann and King represent such strongly partisan districts that they can get away with it.  Grayson does not and cannot.

    I believed for a long time in my gut that Grayson might be able to pull out a surprise win, but his ads are so bad that I'm now convinced he's toast.

    It's sad because good ads could get Grayson over the hump in spite of himself, but I'll now be shocked if he survives.  I now think even if we surprise everyone and lose only 20 seats, Grayson still will be one of those 20.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Well I guess we will all have to agree to disagree on this
    Basically because i'm tired and down want to spend by whold 23rd birthday talking about Alan Grayson lol.

    Wait a minute, losing 20. I thought we were losing 30. I'm very optimistic on things (including this) and I think well lose 30 in the House and about 5-6 in the Senate.

    [ Parent ]
    Happy birthday! (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Thank you very much Cyclone I appreciate the congraulations

    [ Parent ]
    I would be tempted to not vote in FL-08
    because of Grayson's behavior. Even though I agree with most of his positions, I believe his temperament is an example of what's wrong with America.

    btw, happy b-day, user Drake K Hatcher.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree but I would hold my nose anyways
    Because he's a Dem in a important seat.

    Thank you for the congradulations tietack.

    [ Parent ]
    There's a difference between....
    ...having guts and going nuts.  Grayson is doing the latter...
    [ Parent ]
    I don't necessarily believe that regarding FL-8 the seat is gone Cyclone
    Grayson is a very outrageous man to begin with,so those make sense (although refering to Daniel Webster as "Taliban Dan" may be over the top) but by no streach he's dead because of this poll. I like to see more polling prefabally by a independent source to change my mind on the race. Plus Grayson is a strong progressive that can bring people to the polls and has lots of money to spend, which will come in handy right about now

    Regarding SUSA's VA-5 poll and SUSA in general. Your preaching to the choir. They polling and methology this year has been very bad it's not even funny.  

    [ Parent ]
    FL-08
    I have several friends and family in FL-08.  Some of them voted for Obama, but none of them are voting for Grayson this time.  He just seems to put everybody off.  I suspect what he was trying to do with his ads was make Webster out to be just as bad as he is, only on the other side, but it's not flying.  Webster has a history in elected office of not being a bomb-thrower.  I'm cynical enough to wonder if his over-the-top ads are just an attempt to raise more money from the progressive base that loves him so in order to pay himself back for whatever of his own money he's loaned his campaign.
    Kosmos is gone too, btw.  Obama's plans for NASA iced her.  FL-02 is the Dems best chance for a hold, though I do give them a surprisingly decent shot at picking up FL-25.  In an ordinary year, I'd give them the advantage.  Even if their guy doesn't win this time, I'll bet he has another go at it in 2012.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    I disagree
    His ads are in attempt to define his opponent and could work by the time election day comes around. By no means is Grayson is dead. As for Kosmas she isn't dead either, espically in the internal by her campaign that was released recently showed her up by two over Adams (the mods here did say everyone here was pessmistic about that race)and the mods here said that was good news given hoe everyone thought Kosmas was DOA when she was sworn in. so if she can keep that and hang on she can beat Adams. As for Joe Garcia, we could pick that up I don't know well have to see more polling.
    [ Parent ]
    Drake, the NRCC released their internal today showing Kosmas down 49-39......
    I'm sure both released internals have integrity, but they're obviously working off different turnout models and perhaps there are other methodological differences that explain the divergent results.

    But the totality of polling is bad for her.  She's the incumbent in a year that her party is disfavored, and she's only at 45 in her own internal and at 39 in the opposition's polling.  That means she's almost certainly toast.

    I made this point in yesterday's digest that these kinds of numbers we're seeing in SOME of these internals even from our own side, and certainly from the NRCC's side, are very bad for us even if they show close races.  If we're down 45-44 in an open purple seat, we're in great shape; less so this year than most years, but still with a plausible path to victory.  But an incumbent down 45-44 in a year like this is very likely to lose.  There will be exceptions, of course.  I bet Gerlach and Kirk and Heather Wilson and Chris Shays had some scary internals in 2006 that we never saw, but they still survived.  But most of their colleagues with similarly scary internals got beat, some convincingly.  As an example of what can happen in a wave, after Clay Shaw lost by 5 points to Ron Klein in 2006, Shaw said he never saw hit coming because his last polling right before the election had him WINNING by 5.  The wave just overcame him and the polling understated hostility to Republicans.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Cyclone your smarter than that
    You want me to believe a internal comprised from the NRCC that only shows the toplines and the toplines only. I won't because if it's one thing I don't trust is GOP internals, espically ones that won't provide any data to the race they polled. The fact is Kosmas is up by two in her own polling in a district that everyone thought was unwinnable. That's good in my book.
    [ Parent ]
    Open question with these internals
    showing the "D" incumbent close or just behind --

    does the notion that "undecideds break against the incumbent" hold true this year?

    I suspect the fate of about 10 House seats rests on that question, possibly including FL-08 and FL-24.

    I think the answer depends on the "momentum," aka, is the polling locally and nationally going towards or against the incumbent / incumbent party?

    [ Parent ]
    I think that depends on a race by race basis
    Not just as a whole. I believe it comes down to campaigns (making the race local and being independent to your party) and how the D incumbents run them as we come through the home streach. Ad blitzes and stumping will be alot to break open the undecideds in my opinion.  
    [ Parent ]
    There is a national component
    Where undecideds are conflicted or have no opinion of current candidates, the national environment does have an effect.

    Unfortunately, as long as the generic ballot is truly anti-D, I believe that undecideds will break against us. Fortunately, the "promise with America" or whatever it's called has landed with a thud, so that break will be much smaller than it was in '94.

    Second bit -- With appropriate internals, it is possible to make a judgment of and then take in --both-- D and R polls into the database.

    btw, user DCCylone is perhaps the most intelligent and articulate active user here. I don't always agree with him, but believe it is inappropriate to slam him as you did.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't think what I said to Cyclone is considered a "Slam"
    All I did was say to him your smarter than that (and he is as he's one of the most smartest poster here) and you shouldn't be duped in by a GOP internal (which I don't trust for the most part) that shows no data outside of the toplines that's all and I said to him I can't believe that poll because of the reason I mentioned. There's nothing wrong with what I said. Being inapproitate towards him was saying thatb he was say... "Dead Wrong" and shouting obsenities. I did not do that and will not do that because cursing and bringing out fighting words is pointless in a regular discussion.

    Well from what I read the generic ballot has tightened than it was in August which is good news for us and their promise with america has landed with a hard thud which is good. But in the end I believe how the undecideds will break is on a race by race basis in some cases. Dems with small leads can hold on to them be campaigning hard, running the ads positice and negative and reaching out to the undecided by touting your acclompishments and your independence from your party.

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks for sticking up for me, but as it was I was not offended. I will admit a double-standard...
    ...here in how I react emotionally to Democrats and Republicans.  Team Blue trumps all else for me for purposes of this blog.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    I think it holds true in a wave, THAT'S WHY it's a wave in the first place......
    Waves happen BECAUSE the marginal voters break overwhelmingly one way.  We're going to be the victim of that this time.

    And I'll be honest, I now expect Grayson to lose by double-digits.  He could have lost narrowly or even won with great ads, but his campaign is a mess in a tough district in a bad year for his party.  That's a recipe for disaster.

    As for Kosmas, I don't apply any arbitrary math adding or subtracting 5 points to either side's internals, I just accept both as valid based on different assumptions and, combined with Adams being a challenger completely unfamiliar to voters, draw the conclusion that Kosmas is very likely toast.  If the NRCC internal had said Kosmas was down 45-43, then I would say she still has a chance, but she's still likely to lose.

    I contrast this with, say, Patrick Murphy, where dueling internals are closer to mirror images rather than showing a tight Murphy lead compared to a big Fitzpatrick lead.  The "closer to mirror image" polling combined with the fact that Fitzpatrick himself recently held the seat and was the ballot twice in the past 6 years, meaning he's got name recognition and familiarity very close to Murphy's own, makes me view PA-08 as a pure toss-up.

    We will have some surprise survivors on election night, but make no mistake Grayson and Kosmas are on most analysts' lists of near-certain losers.

    I don't want to discourage confidence in holding the House in these comments, because I think we actually might be close to 50-50 on keeping the chamber after all.  But we're going to lose 30something seats at best, and that's a LOT of losses to absorb without losing Kosmas and Grayson among them.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I disagree
    I don't think this will be a wave ala 1994. I see us keeping the House and losing 30 seats. I been saying that all year and I been sticking to it. Kosmas isn't toast like what everyone else has said. Her internal recently has her up by two and that's good given what you and  everyone else has said. I'm not going to believe it's over because of a NRCC poll that provides little data regarding the poll that and the fact that I don't trust GOP polls. I see Kosmas winning narrowly in the end.

    As for PA-8 given the fact the '06 race between Murphy and Fitzpatrick was close and polling has been close (the latest poll shows Murphy up by three and by 5 with heavy screening) making it a pure tossup makes sense.

    [ Parent ]
    turns out too
    That the quote Grayson used in the ad about women being submissive to their husbands was taken majorly out of context Andrew Breitbart style.  Webster is actually talking about the opposite and he says something along the lines of ignoring certain bible passages in favor of ones you are actually supposed to follow.  I'd link to an article about this but I'm not on a computer.

    Grayson is fucked and he deserves to be.

    [ Parent ]
    Wow that is bad
    Well I guess it will be a sad day in the progressive universe if he loses since sites like OL and DK have pretty much anointed him as their savior.
    [ Parent ]
    Got a link
    This is just low. Grayson can piss off.

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    OK dsregard anything nice I said about the man
    Jesus what would make him say something so stupid like that. Goddamn Alan.
    [ Parent ]
    Here's the link to the factcheck.org criticism
    [ Parent ]
    I just have to add my two cents...
    If Grayson was running ads defending his cap and trade vote or his vote on Health Care or demanding a public option, I woulc call that courageous.

    How is it courageous to slime your opponent with misleading and outright false accusations? Just curious.

    Also, I find it very depressing that Kos is still raising money for this guy. In addition to the fact that Grayson is the most loathsome Democrat (heck maybe the only one) running this year, HE DOESN'T NEED THE MONEY. It's like Kos is doing some cross promotion of his American Taliban book with Grayson.

    Kos has built up a lot of good will with me for his terrific defense of progressive positions and candidates over the years, as well as leading the charge against Joe Lieberman. I'm just so dissapointed in this.  

    [ Parent ]
    My guess is
    Kos keeps supporting is because Kos probally likes what he's doing. Kos dosen't take no shit, you know that from his site and his style and personality so these ads Grayson is airing Kos is probally eating it up. Just my opinion though.
    [ Parent ]
    But Kos has never supported someone who outright lies in his ads before
    Kos is take no sh*t, but he's also been principled. I'm sorry, but there's nothing principled about raising money for Grayson at this point, particularly with so many deserving progressive Democrats out there.

    I have to contrast raising money for Grayson with SSP's raising money for Scott McAdams, who seems very principled - the classic citizen legislator. I was proud to give money to him.  

    [ Parent ]
    Hey I was guessing when I said that
    To be honest I have no clue why Kos would raise money for him because of the ad and because Grayson has enough money and Kos clout can go to other candidates like SSP hero Scott McAdams who was added to Kos orange to blue program.

    I was happy as well when I made my $100 donation to him. Made my proud.

    [ Parent ]
    Gotcha
    Happy birthday man.  
    [ Parent ]
    Thank you Mark, I appreciate it.

    [ Parent ]
    Completely agree
    It's one thing to have a naturally combative personality, which Congressman Grayson certainly seems to have.  It's also fine to sort-of posture yourself as a contrarian, in-your-face SOB -- the Republicans certainly have enough of those, and we could probably use a few more.  I think all of that has really made a favorable impression on lots of people.

    But Grayson has moved way far away from that.  The "Taliban Dan" ad, and the one where he falsely accused Webster of being a draft dodger rank as some of the worst ads of the cycle -- and certainly not in-line with progressive values.  

    As you correctly say, there are a lot of good, progressive Democrats in tough but winnable races that both need and deserve your money more than Alan Grayson.

    [ Parent ]
    very low
    Negative ads don't bother me, but damn lies do. I agree with the poster that said Grayson is no better than Andrew Breitbart.  

    41, Ind, CA-05
    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    I saw this on CNN -- Webster was speaking to a conservative religious group, and was saying basically NOT to pick and choose bible verses like "women submit to men".  What Grayson did here was so far beyond sleazy -- not only taking this statement out of context, but then throwing the label of "taliban around".  Disgusting.  
    [ Parent ]
    You cant look at these 2 clips and tell me Greyson didnt just commit political suicide with his ad
    Here's the Greyson ad:

    And here is what Daniel Webster actually said:

    I mean come on! No way a stunt like this doesnt backfire. It's just so stupid and wrong. If Greyson had the guts he claims he has he would apologize for the ad and fire the ad team that made it.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

    [ Parent ]
    Yes your right
    But here's the problem. Greyson isn't the type of guy who apologizes so having him apologize and having his ad team fire will never happen. It's the right thing to do but will never happen.
    [ Parent ]
    Alan Grayson
    is now officially the Liddy Dole of this cycle.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    Good call
    Her "Godless Americans" ad was probably the sleaziest of last cycle, and the one that had the biggest backfire.  I think Kay Hagen was going to probably win that race anyway, but Dole's ad, and her staunch defense of it after it ran, further sealed the deal.
    [ Parent ]
    the ad that backfired the most
    Was from the guy Kosmas beat.  It was a total toss-up until the fool put out an ad apologizing for his ties to Abrahomoff.  The goal was to neutralize the show so it wouldn't be a drag on his re-election but jokes on him.  And he did this in the summer or even April IIRC so he was DOA throughout the whole season.  
    [ Parent ]
    When it gets down to it,
    Grayson seems like a really rich dude who ran for and served in Congress primarily for shits and giggles.  Kind of like I suspect Jeff Greene would have been if somehow elected.  I don't think he really cares whether he's re-elected or not.  He probably does care about progressive social policy, but not more than he seems to care about getting his shits and giggles in.  If he's not re-elected, he'll find some other way to do that.  I just hope he doesn't become a national poster child for Democratic sleaze, thus dragging other candidates down.

    That's my armchair psychoanalysis.  That'll be $500, Alan.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Big gender gap in FL-08
    And not what you would expect, either, after Grayson ran that ad hammering Webster on women's rights. Webster leads 41-40 with men but 45-33 with women.  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Turns out this was done by a Republican pollster
    So it might not be as bad for Grayson as this poll makes it.

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    [ Parent ]
    Hmmm could be hope for him afterall
    Guess well find out soon.
    [ Parent ]
    Wonder
    when Dan Webster's wife will appear in ad exorcising Grayson for lying about her husband.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    With how crazy this cycle is going
    Could be any day lol.
    [ Parent ]
    Exorcising?
    Do you really mean that? I'm thinking excoriating.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    What's the rule when a partisan pollster polls for a non-partisan outfit?
    The group that did the polling has ties to Republicans, but the poll was on behalf of a news outfit that is non-partisan. Do we still treat it like a GOP internal?

    For example, PPP is a Democratic outfit that does internal polls for Democrats in addition to their work for DKos and their independent work, but their regular polls don't skew Democratic. This pollster, of course, does not have the proven track record of accuracy that PPP does.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Grayson
    Grayson was in serious trouble before his latest ad.  But I thought the crowded late GOP primary as well as Webster's lack of money and relative low profile (up til now) would allow Grayson a narrow win despite himself. This ad totally f#@$ed that up.  I have no idea if the repub poll is accurate but it was taken before the damage of this ad could be measured.  I lived in Grayson's district 2004-06 and now live in Kosmas' but I get all the Orlando media and this is getting a lot of play. Webster who has a terrible record in many regards including women's issues looks like a martyr.  Folks are focusing on the "taliban Dan" line but what is more damaging is the way Webster was "Shirley Sherroded" with his "submit to me" statement not taken outta context but actually twisted to be the opposite of what he said.  Grayson and his campaign refuse to backdown or apologize so the story keeps festering because he is obviously in the wrong...tapes don't lie and his refusal to budge adds to the narrative that he is a stubborn ideologue and a bully.    
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah your right
    I guess well see in future plls or on election day if this ad did him in.
    [ Parent ]
    Also I have a question
    Stupid one possibly but a question I like answered regarding this:

    A massive stack of DCCC outlays

    What is that, are those the districts the D-Trip plan to run ads in?

    Dayton ahead by 11
    Encouarging, but recent polling has been weird in this race......
    Just as a couple polls come out showing a dead heat, a couple more come out showing Dayton up in the ballpark of 10.

    I'm confident he's winning at least.  That's ultimately all that matters.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Tom Emmer
    has run a dogshit campaign. Despite the waiter/waitress flap (which was stupid politically from so many ends), he hasn't really been able to attack Dayton convincingly.

    I'll repeat, he hasn't been able to attack Mark Dayton convincingly. I just don't get it. Norm Coleman did a shitty job trying to soften Al Franken up too (whom I love, but there are some spots that could have been exploited).

    The best that Emmer can come up with is that he wants Minnesota to be more like South Dakota, which is like running for President because you think Mexico is great.

    The Independent (Tom Horner) has actually run a pretty solid campaign. He's too conservative fiscally for my liking, but he's basically running as on having basic competency.  

    [ Parent ]
    I honestly think
    Horner has more of a shot at winning than Emmer.  And Emmer's campaign I dont think is the problem, it's Emmer.  His policy positions are clearly fucked up and the people of Minnesota know this and are terrified of what he would do to the state.  The campaign did a great job with their budget plan because on the surface, it looks like a great one to cut the deficit because it doesnt appear to cut very much.  (The trick was he said he'd freeze MN spending on services, except the feds helped pay for a lot of our last budget so that equals one fat cut.  Really great way to hide that fact though through messaging.)
    [ Parent ]
    he did take a big hit in the news
    Concerning his budget plan as it turns out it'd only raise half the amount of taxes he thought it would.  And the news on this came out a few days before that one poll showing it close came out.  That was two weeks ago and people seemed to have moved on and his campaign handled the negative press very well.

    I was starting to think Horner could pull it out when that happened and I was mentally preparing for that but it seems all is as it should be here in MN.  And the Alliance for a Better Minnesota now has a great ad attacking Emmer's budget plan to cut 1.8 billion in education spending.  Yikes, that number is going to kill him.

    [ Parent ]
    The best the NRCC can put up
    is a 4-point spread against Kratovil and 5 against Nye?  Really?  And here I had Kratovil losing by 5-10 and Nye by double digits.  I'm shocked that the NRCC sees them as that close.

    Oh, and I love low they say the generic ballot shows double-digit leads for Republicans in these districts.  I'm sure that's going to scare Kratovil, given that Obama lost by 14 points in his district at the same time he was pounding Andy Harris in 2008.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    The others aren't good either
    We talked about it yesterday but the last GOP polls all had better numbers, particularly against Salazar. The tightening in the generic ballot is now a certainty - the NBC poll was very, very encouraging.
    [ Parent ]
    Scotty has Buck ahead by 8
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    As I've said many times, Colorado Dems deserve what they'll probably get by choosing Bennet over Romanoff.

    His FOX poll was much closer though it looks definite that Buck is ahead. Am equally sure Bennet still has a shot. It isn't clear to me that Romanoff would be doing any better.

    [ Parent ]
    Ya because if Ras says it, it must be true

    [ Parent ]
    No
    But CNN/Time and Reuters/Ipsos also had Buck ahead.
    [ Parent ]
    Due to the fact that
    Romanoff has to sell his home just to get money to get through the primary, he would be in much much worse shape. Bennet was the much stronger one of the two and I wouldn't put too much stock into what Scotty Ras says.  
    [ Parent ]
    Money, money
    Romanoff would have had enough money.  (And isn't that argument many on here made for wanting Fisher to win over Brunner?  How's that working out?)

    Bennet is a dreadful, uninspiring, candidate, who's never run a general election campaign before.  Romanoff would have created more enthusiasm and has more campaign experience.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh don't start and cry over sour grapes
    Romanoff and Bennet were the same when it comes to his views.and if Romanoff had enough money why did he have to sell his house to raise cash for his campaign? It's called desparation Paleo. Bennet is none of the things you make him out to be. He's a good Democrat in the Senate and if certainly not a dreadful candidate. and Romanoff would of fared worse againist Buck. There's no evidence to back up your claim that we be better off with Romanoff as our candidate.
    [ Parent ]
    I agree on one thing: the Romanoff argument is as valid as the Brunner argument......
    The notion that Romanoff was a better choice has zero evidence, just unsupported assertion.  I, too, was put off by his selling his house to pay for his campaign, I don't have confidence in someone who can't raise enough money from others.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Romanoff would have money? From Who?
    And how is Elaine Marshall doing in NC? Down 20 points to Burr for crying out loud.  And the National Dems are not giving her a dime, figuring that if the progressive activists fund her to win the primary, they can fund her in the general - they broke it, they bought it.  

    Romanoff was a DLC'er, tricked progressives into thinking he was some great progressive insurgent, had no money and was acting desperate with the house selling gambit.  

    If there is one state that should have went with the non-establishment pick it should have been Ohio with Jennifer Brunner.  

    [ Parent ]
    She had less money than anyone
    So, according to your logic, she had no business winning the primary.
    [ Parent ]
    Correct, and sure enough she didn't. Because she ran a terrible campaign. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Romanoff was the uninspiring candidate here
    He did better in Denver because he represented the area, but he's no progressive nor is he someone who people are that enthusiastic about. Bennet has run a good campaign by most accounts, it's just a really bad year to be a Democrat.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed completely regarding Romanoff
    Although a bad year, Bennet has done fairly well under the circumstances and can see him winning in the end.
    [ Parent ]
    Oh me too
    In fact, I'm one of the very few people here predicting outright a Bennet win in the end.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

    [ Parent ]
    Buck ahead yes
    By eight, that seems too much for now.  Other polls have been holdings steady at four.
    [ Parent ]
    New poll
    [ Parent ]
    wonder what the next DCCC ad in IA-03 will be
    I wasn't too impressed with their first one.

    Zaun is up on the air with a couple more low-budget ads of his own:

    He's trying to be generic Republican, with nothing about his own record or achievements as mayor or in the Iowa Senate. It may be enough in this kind of a year--who knows?

    Whitman's new problems
    This is interesting: Meg Whitman's Housekeeper -- 'Explosive' Allegations': http://www.tmz.com/2010/09/28/...

    Gloria Allred's presence will make the whole case a joke


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    tmz?
    People must really be annoyed and hate Whitman if even TMZ is forced to report on her.  I spose she is on tv much more than any other celeb in Hollywood.
    [ Parent ]
    IA-01
    How many Republican challengers are as lucky as Ben Lange? The American Future Fund is going to spend a million dollars against Bruce Braley. Braley thought he had a 6-1 money edge against a challenger with no name recognition. Now he may get outspent by the American Future Fund.

    The district is D+5. Braley outperformed Obama in 2008, but his opponent didn't have money for a real campaign. Culver and Conlin are down by a lot statewide, but I don't know how far they are down in IA-01.

    Urrrgh, please don't tell me Lange can actually win this
    I love Bruce Braley. He's a great campaigner and a good guy (and possibly a future Senator), so I'm going to believe this is all smoke for now.

    How's Braley doing for money? Should I contribute? (I don't live in the district, but I know several people who still do).  

    [ Parent ]
    According to Open Secrets
    He has over 600k on hand

    http://www.opensecrets.org/pol...

    Lange has little over 100k on hand
    http://www.opensecrets.org/rac...

    [ Parent ]
    Braley "should" be ok
    I think the AFF is mainly trying to soften him up before he runs for office statewide (once Harkin or Grassley retire). I also don't think the AFF message is anything special--He votes with Pelosi 98 percent of the time, Obamacare bad, failed stimulus. But I can't dismiss $1 million spent against him in a bad year for Democrats, when Culver and Conlin are down.
    [ Parent ]
    NRA Link
    Here's a NRA link that lists the endorsements.

    http://www.nrapvf.org/news-ale...

    Kasich at 50
    Kasich 50 Strickland 42
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    I know, I know, it's Ras and their FOX poll from yesterday showed it closer, but it's still good news to me as Kasich is my favorite of this years Gov candidates.  I expected the race to tighten and I'm sure it has, but this poll makes me think that it didn't tighten as much as was suggested by the last few polls.  All the same, I'll wait for another poll to confirm this one.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    Due to the fact
    It's Rasmussen I would put that much stock into it. There has been three polls in a row showing OH-Gov tightening with Strickland down by 5 in the University of Cinncinati poll and two in the CBS and Ipsos poll. That's a big change from what we were seeing before where the numbers from non-Rasmussen pollsters mirrored the numbers your showing us now. So the race could very well be changing.
    [ Parent ]
    Oooh, pollster cat fud
    Scotty must be getting nervous about this one, ha ha.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    Stephen your from OH
    You think the poll numbers changing is for real or is it just smoke? I mean three polls in a row has shown Strickland creeping back into retainable territory.
    [ Parent ]
    I think what's happening
    Is quite a wild transformation in the voting mood.  Last month, things were going awry because people were blaming Strickland for the state's economic situation.  Now in the last few weeks, with Strickland going negative on Kasich and touting his economic infrastructure projects and research/development initiatives, it appears that two things have happened.  

    1.The more people get to know about Kasich, the less they like.  

    2.Strickland has driven a bit of a wedge between him and the national democratic party on the issues of spending and economic recovery.  

    It seems like in many ways, Ohio voters are now using the Senate race to wag the fist at the national democrats (and to a lesser extent, Obama), and aren't putting the blame on Strickland as much as they were earlier.  In a strange way, Rob Portman's recent ad blitz may have helped Strickland, because in those ads Portman has hammered away at the fact that Lee Fisher is de-facto Ohio's "job czar".  So he's getting dragged down while Strickland is pushing his own plans and beating Kasich at the same time.  

    My feeling is that this race will go down to the wire, and there's no doubt that the dynamic has changed drastically from a month ago.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    In a weird way that makes alot of sense
    Question is as a OH resident are you wagging your fist at the President? Honest question.
    [ Parent ]
    Me personally or Ohioans as a whole?
    Me personally, no.  

    Ohioans on the whole, the liberals no, the conservatives yes, and the independents, maybe.  Most polls in Ohio have Obama's approval ratings tracking very close to the national average, maybe a point or two below.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Dude, the "FOX poll from yesterday" ALSO was RASMUSSEN......
    They're the same.  Scotty owns both Rasmussen Reports and Pulse.  Pulse is the cited contract pollster by FOX nowadays, and they're the same entity that Scotty used for Rasmussen Reports.  It's the exact same methodology.

    This disparity in the same race a day apart by the same pollster just establishes how untrustworthy these snapshot polls are that conservatives salivate over.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I know Fox is Ras
    That's why I said that it was "their FOX poll from yesterday" and I don't put too much stock in any one poll.  I just found it odd that the race seemed to be tightening that quickly without any specific reason and I'm now looking to see if any more polls come out that shows Kasich holding his bigger lead.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough, but 2 polls yesterday showed a 1-point race, and the Ohio Poll...
    ...from last week showed a 4-point race.

    So that's 4 polls in a row that showed tightening before this Rasmussen poll came out showing an 8-point race.

    For now, this new poll is the outlier.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Bob Dold! didn't commit tax or electoral fraud
    The two are distinct and not mutually incompatible legal categories. Primary residence for tax purposes means he spent the majority of the year there. Intangibles like community connections, voting registration, etc. aren't important. Permanent residence for voting purposes means he intends to make that place his home. Intangibles like community connections, voting registration, etc. are important.

    It's pretty irresponsible for SSP to accuse him of anything illegal or unethical. He probably worked in downtown Chicago full-time and only commuted home during weekends.

    No, not irresponsible at all, it's a fair hit......
    Unless you can argue that it would have been unlawful for Dold to have called his in-district home his "primary residence," it's fair to question why he chose his Chicago adobe.  If it was for a tax advantage, that's no different from a businessman-candidate headquartering operations overseas for a tax shelter.  It might be legal, but it's a fair attack on a candidate for doing it.  Just like it's legal to ship jobs overseas, but it's a fair hit to attack it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    He probably chose it because he legally needed to
    It would've been a violation of tax law for him to cite his Winnetka home as his primary residence because he didn't spend the majority of his time there. I mean, what tax advantage is there? Downtown Chicago probably has much higher taxes than Winnetka.

    Smears like this are why so many good people are scared to get into politics.

    [ Parent ]
    You say "probably" but that means you don't know. I'm a lawyer and...
    ...one thing I've learned is that many of my initial impressions that make perfect sense on the surface are proven wrong when I actually read the law or consult with a colleague who understands a particular body of law better than I do.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Watch yourself
    SSP is not a site for Republicans to lecture Democrats about alleged issues of propriety.
    [ Parent ]
    Hello! New NV-03 ad right HERE!

    They wanted to fix it, and now it's re-released with perfect spelling. :-)

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    OH-Gov
    Democratic pollster Benenson Strategy Group says Strickland 41, Kasich 40.
    Intrestring
    Did Strickland commission this poll?
    [ Parent ]
    Looks like the DGA commissioned it. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Intrestring
    Won if it will get it's own thread or just be mentioned in this afternoon's digest.
    [ Parent ]
    That's one thing about SSP that's completely unpredictable......
    The choices of what polls to single out and which ones to submerge into digests seems arbitrary.  I'm not really complaining, it's ultimately not something that hurts anyone.  But I do scratch my head sometimes wondering why one poll gets its own diary while another gets buried in a digest.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah your right about that
    Odds are since it's a poll showing a 1 point lead for Strickland it could get it's own diary. I don't care either way but it will be talked about and it is weird how they pick and choose which polls and stories gets singled out and which ones get put into a digest.
    [ Parent ]
    AFAIK, this is not their day job
    So with so many polls, there isn't a lot of time to make a judgment on which one to single out for diaries.
    [ Parent ]
    This isn't their day job
    What is it then. Anyways I don't care where they put this poll, all I know is that it will be talked about today.
    [ Parent ]
    That's a reasonable question
    The answer is, of course, that we have no strict methodology. Factors that affect how we place things:

    1) Internals are almost always likely to go into a digest, rather than get their own post, unless they get packaged with independent polls. It's not because we trust internals less per se, but because we're only ever likely to see the internals that campaigns want us to see.

    2) Independent polls typically go on the front page in their owns posts. Exceptions: Over-polled races; polls where the trendlines have barely moved; races of limited interest (ie, blowouts); if we have questions about the pollster (eg, Rasmussen, UNH, ARG or someone totally new to us); whether we have enough time for a full post.

    [ Parent ]
    NY-Sen: DioGuardi, Townsend voted for Lazio
    FL-Sen: Meek/FL Dems run best ad by anyone in the race......
    All the pundits are calling this a devastatingly good attack on Crist, and they're right.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    This is a smart move by Meek.  His one shot is to unify Dems and Dem-leaners behind him and have Rubio and Crist split Republicans.  This ad is perfect for that strategy.

    Honestly, if Meek can make this stick and move numbers, I cannot completely write off his chances anymore.

    This cycle has been so weird, with conventional wisdom turned on its head so many times in so many races all year, that I don't dare say anymore that "Meek has no chance" as I had been saying.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    Brutal
    that's all I can say.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    It's a damn good ad...
    But Meek can't beat Rubio, so he's just battling for second place.

    Not that I think there is much difference between Rubio and Crist.  Rubio dabbled in teabagger land in order to win the primary, but the man has much higher office aspirations so he can't vote with the far right.    

    [ Parent ]
    It even works with Rs who still support Crist
    by giving them a reason to stay with Crist.
    [ Parent ]
    Yes, that's WHY it's so effective, it accomplishes 2 things at once......
    It gives Ds and D-leaners motivation to move away from Crist, and Rs and R-leaners who still like Crist the motivation to stay with him.

    If Meek can unify the Democratic base, he can get to 40 or a little over that.  It's a tall order, and it's just as tall an order to keep Rubio from inching any higher than he has.  But Meek has to do it.

    Meek also has to attack Rubio in tandem with Crist.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Meek has continuously impressed me
    For a guy once considered a lightweight legacy candidate, he has made the absolute best of every situation he's been in this cycle -- first pulling within single digits of Rubio in a head-to-head, then pounding Jeff Greene into the dust, and now making a real play for a win in an impossible situation.  I don't think anyone expects him to win here, but I maintain that he's been one of the best and most effective Democratic statewide candidates all cycle, and that he'll be an excellent candidate for some other statewide office going forward.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
    [ Parent ]
    I hope so
    I really like Kendrick Meek. I'd love to see him pull this off.  
    [ Parent ]
    How?
    I'm the complete opposite when it comes to Meek. The Democrats in Florida really dropped the ball by going with Meek. I'm not saying Greene was a good candidate, but it's too bad they couldn't have recruited at least a mediocre candidate this cycle.

    All he's doing is playing spoiler. The main thing he stresses in his interviews is that he's the real Democrat in the race etc.

    I just don't see him attracting anyone but party loyalists, and that's simply because of the D next to his name.

    The guy has no appeal whatsoever! He's well to the left of most Democrats, he has no personality whatsoever, and the ONLY thing he can really say is that he's the "real Democrat" in the race. He's a lackluster candidate.

    At this point (as has been the entire time) a vote for Meek is a vote for Rubio. For all his party loyalty talk, he sure does want Rubio in office.

    Meek and the Florida Democratic Party should meet with Crist privately and find out if he'll make a private commitment to them to caucus with the Democrats in the Senate. If he does, then Meek should just sit back and let Crist continue to build his coalition.

    Meek going after Crist will only help Rubio become the next U.S. Senator from Florida.

    The Florida Democratic Party really, really, dropped the ball here.

    [ Parent ]
    Statewide
    Oh, and the idea of Meek running statewide in the future is frightening. Hastings could probably do better than Meek statewide.

    I hope DWS runs for a statewide seat. She might be very liberal, but she's got personality, understands politics, and will go toe to toe with anyone. She's a rising star.

    [ Parent ]
    LOL
    An impeached federal judge doing better than a credible congressman who is a strong fundraiser and campaigner?  
    [ Parent ]
    Not Quite
    The bit about Hastings is right, but that's about it.

    Maybe you're confusing Meek with Meeks in NY, like most people have this entire campaign :)

    [ Parent ]
    Isnt
    Meeks incredibly sleazy?  
    [ Parent ]
    yes
    To give you an idea how sleezy the NY Meeks is, he created a fake Katrina charity and basically stole all the money.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...
    [ Parent ]
    I thought that was him
    I expect to hear a lot about him on TV in Cao ads tying Richmond to him.
    [ Parent ]
    RuralDem, for a long time your comment was true, but things have changed now......
    Candidates and campaigns matter.  Especially in a 3-way.

    Crist really is getting squeezed hard and is bleeding support.  That's established.

    Meek has inched up.  That's established.

    And Meek's and the FL Dems' new ad is strong enough that I'm betting it moves Dems strongly away from Crist over the next couple weeks.  Assuming that ad reflects the strength of Meek's campaign going forward, I'm willing to say now that Crist will finish 3rd.

    The only question left is whether Meek can consolidate enough Dems and Dem-leaners to get into the high 30s or even break 40.  He might be able to do it.  Can he get a spike in black turnout?  He has a chance.

    This is still Rubio's to lose, but Meek is making a real move.

    And the notion that Meek is "well to the left of most Democrats" is nonsense.  Well to the left of you, perhaps, but he's a garden variety liberal, there are LOTS of those in the Senate including from purple states (e.g., Tom Harkin; Sherrod Brown; Russ Feingold; Herb Kohl).

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    ^^I like this.
    nm
    [ Parent ]
    Florida
    Things have changed? Meek is still hovering in third place! If he was in second, I'd agree wholeheartedly, but he's not.

    That ad was alright, but come on, it's taken Meek's campaign this long to do a half-way decent ad?

    I meant that Meek is to the left of the average Floridian, hence the reason he's doing so poorly with Crist taking the center-left, centrist, and Conservative Democrats, so I'm not sure how Harkin or anyone else factors into that. I'd venture to say that if Meek was a typical Florida Democrat then he'd be doing much better even though he's boring. DWS might be very liberal, but she's a skilled politician and very likable.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh
    And you're right, candidates and campaigns do matter, hence the reason I'm so frustrated with the Florida Democratic Party.

    Meek's a lackluster candidate who's been running a non-existent campaign, until now, when a fairly good ad finally comes out.

    Why wasn't he doing anything half this good before?

    Florida Democrats really dropped the ball this time.

    [ Parent ]
    That's a significant question
    Why wasn't he doing anything half this good before?

    The answer should tell us whether Meek got lucky, or will have a better campaign from here on out.

    [ Parent ]
    Meek's voting record is in the middle of the D caucus
    Per progressive punch, he's the 122nd most liberal member.  
    [ Parent ]
    I agree that the FDP dropped the ball
    My comment is on what Meek did with the opportunity handed to him, not on whether he was the best candidate available -- clearly he wasn't.  But I don't agree with your support for Crist at this point.  I've always felt that a third party candidacy of that sort draws very soft support.  It's one thing if you're Lieberman and there's no viable third candidate against you, but in this sort of race it's Crist who can't rely on a base or a grassroots operation to back him up.

    I don't think we're going to win the seat in either matchup -- truly, I thought the seat was lost the minute it looked like Rubio was going to be the GOP nominee -- but I think our best showing at this point would come if Crist dropped out and endorsed Meek.  We could keep it a single-digit loss that way, at least.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    [ Parent ]
    Honestly, I don't see why
    people keep saying that this was such a major fail on the part off the FL Dem Party. They don't really have a large bench of office holders. Their only statewide incumbents are Senator Nelson and CFO Sink, and both obviously could not run. After that, US Representatives are the highest office-holders, and there are 10 Democrats among them. Obviously, frosh reps Deutch, Grayson, and Kosmas weren't really possibilities. That leaves seven. Brown and Hastings are both aging liberal black incumbents in safe districts, and neither would likely play any better statewide than Meek, who at least has (relative) youth and is ideologically more acceptable to voters. Boyd is an old, experienced Blue Dog, and I doubt he would have much appeal to the Democratic base. That leaves, other than Meek, Klein, Castor, and Wasserman-Schultz. Of those three, only Wasserman-Schultz strikes me as being particularly stronger than Meek. And there was no strong reason to give up her House seat, so it strikes me as lucky we even got a congressman to run. Then again, I don't know much about FL politics. Maybe there was some other strong candidate. Any locals can feel free to elucidate me on this.

    Radical or something, WA-07
    [ Parent ]
    Melancon
    airing an attack ad detailing Vitter's role in the DC Madam scandal...and get this, it's two minutes long!



    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    Wow!

    [ Parent ]
    Um, is this really on TV? It wouldn't surprise me if it is in this instance since Melancon NEEDS a Hail Mary, BUT...
    ...even a 60-second video almost always is a web ad, NOT for TV.  At 2 minutes, this would cost Melancon a bundle on TV.

    Like I said, I'm not surprised if he's actually putting this on the air in major rotation, because he needs a fast game-changer.  But I don't believe it without some kind of reporting that it's really on TV.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    From Politico
    From Politico:

    A source familiar with the buy said the commercial will initially run largely on cable - possibly during the New Orleans Saints or LSU games this weekend. It is expected to reach every market in Louisiana.

    [ Parent ]
    I thought James L. said a while back
    The tell is whether or not there's the disclaimer of "I'm (blank) and I approve this message" which this ad has. I think this is actually a TV ad.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

    [ Parent ]
    Length is not a perfect tell
    Remember all those Ross Perot infomercials?

    And yeah, all the media coverage of this ad reports that it's a cable buy.

    [ Parent ]
    Many of us are too young for Perot!
    But I do remember the informercial/half-hour special that Obama ran in October 2008, and that seems like it was pretty effective. Did he, by law, have to say "I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message" during that block of time, or were the rules different because it was more of a TV special than an ad?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    I can't see why
    length would remove the disclosure requirement. I haven't looked at the relevant law, though.
    [ Parent ]
    When I was six years old, all I did was watch Ross Perot informercials :P


    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

    [ Parent ]
    Adler leads Runyan by 2 among likelies
    9 among registered.  Rutgers/Eagleton poll.

    http://www.northjersey.com/new...

    Good.

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: Malloy up 3
    (Make that CT-Gov.)


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Total outlier
    and gives me some comfort that the close Blumenthal race is due to an extreme likely voter model, and not an actual close race.  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    I felt exactly the same as you, spiderdem, that this undermines the Q-poll on CT-Sen. Worth noting is...
    ...Rasmussen had Malloy up 50-40 with the same sample that had Blumenthal up only 50-45.

    So Rassy has Malloy with more breathing room than Blumenthal, but Q-poll says they're the same.

    Someone is wrong.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Kirk ahead by 4 in PPP poll
    40-36, with Green candidate getting 8% and Libertarian 3%.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    Kirk has moved into a narrow lead in all recent polls, and yet...
    ...he's still stuck in the low 40s.

    IL voters REALLY don't like their choices.

    I am worried anytime momentum turns against us, and a small bit of momentum obviously has turned against Alexi and toward Kirk.  But it really is small, and Alexi can still turn this around.

    Obama really needs to rally base Dems to get behind their nominee.  People of color in particular need to back Giannoulias, and Obama can motivate them.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Man IL voters really hates these two guys
    But having early primaries and not finding thr right nominees can do that. It's a small lead for Kirk but it's very small and with so many Dems undecided in this Alexi can turn this around given the Dem undecides and if Jones can keep his support at 8 percent or not. I still think at the end of the day Alexi can bring his base home and win this and Obama can rally the people in IL around Alexi and I have a feeling we will be seeing that very soon. Don't you think Cyclone?
    [ Parent ]
    I hope so, but I think Obama and other Dems have to get visible and aggressive here......
    It needs to be made clear to liberal whites and to people of color that supporting Obama means voting for Alexi.  The base just has to show up and vote for the DEMOCRAT, and everything must be done to convey to the base that the President demands it.

    If we can save Reid and Alexi and Coons wins as expected, those are 3 races (Senate Majority Leader; President's seat; Vice-President's seat) where we deny the Republicans major trophies they badly wanted.  That will help us in the post-election narrative.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    That's why it's important for Obama to come to IL to stump for Alexi because Obama has the power to shore up the undecided Dems that can push Alexi over the top and I believe that can happen and like you I believe at the end of the day Alexi will win denying the GOP the major trophies as you called it they badly wanted and yes that will help us in the post-election narrative.
    [ Parent ]
    GP is at 8%
    Will this support tank at the last minute and break for Giannoulias?
    [ Parent ]
    That's what we NEED to happen, and aggressive persuasion needs to be done. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    We need it to happen and it can be done

    [ Parent ]
    Way too early too tell
    Whether Jones collapses or not is largely dependent on the quality of his campaign and whether Alexi recoups his image to some degree. If Jones can get his message out there and make himself look like he would be a good Senator, and Alexi does not give Democrats reason to vote for him, his support will hold up. If Obama can convice Democrats to "come home" or Jones acts like a nutcase, he collapses.

    It has gone both ways in the past. Dean Barkley in MN-Sen-08, who admittedly had more qualifications and name rec than Jones, did not collapse and took a large chunk of the vote, leaving the two major candidates at 42%. Chris Daggett in NJ-Gov-09 did collapse to a degree, and it looks like his supporters broke towards eventual winner Christie, but not overwhelmingly so. If Jones collapses, his support most likely goes to Alexi because he's pulling mostly liberals and Democrats, but I could see 30-40% of them going to Kirk.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    No, Jones isn't going to maintain that support. You can't compare...
    ...Jones with Barkley or Daggett.  Those were serious candidates running serious campaigns.  Jones has no resources and no real campaign.  He is just short-term parking spot for people answering telephone surveys, not a serious voting option.

    Neither Alexi nor Kirk has the same depth of personal baggage that Blago had in IL-Gov 2006 when the Green candidate got 10%.  Topinka, too, had ethics allegations arise in that campaign, to help the Green.

    I think ultimately we're going to see both Giannlouias and Kirk in the high 40s on election night, and hopefully Alexi is in first place.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    OK, thanks
    That was the big x-factor that I didn't know about Jones--whether he has the political skill and resources to run a serious campaign over the next 5 weeks. If he doesn't have that, he will almost certainly bleed support unless Alexi completely tanks it (unlikely), in which case it won't matter anyway.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Whitney got 10% of the vote as a Green in 2006 Gov election
    and he's running for Governor again this year.

    I can totally see Jones getting in the high single digits.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    protest votes?
    Is there any way to tell whether Jones is drawing mostly far-left types Giannoulias could conceivably get, or just protest votes that would go to the Libertarian or be left blank if Jones were not on the ballot? Given how unpopular the R and D candidates are, I could see an unusually high number of protest votes in this race.

    41, Ind, CA-05
    [ Parent ]
    Jones isn't going to get 8%
    There's at least 5% there that could switch to G at the end.
    [ Parent ]
    Dear David Hoffman
    I miss you.  :-(

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
    [ Parent ]
    So, they'll probably have Brady up double-digits


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Scoreboard

    Senate: Republicans gain 8

    Republican pickups (8): AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, PA, WI, WV

    House: Republicans gain 34

    Republican pickups (39): AR-01, AR-02, CO-04, FL-02, FL-08, FL-22, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-08, KS-03, LA-03, MI-01, MI-07, MS-01, ND-AL, NH-01, NH-02, NM-02, NY-19, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-11, TN-06, TN-08, TX-17, TX-23, VA-02, VA-05, VA-11, WA-02, WA-03, WI-07, WI-08

    Democratic pickups (5): DE-AL, FL-25, HI-01, IL-10, LA-02

    Governors: Republicans gain 6

    Republican pickups (13): IA, IL, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, OR, PA, TN, WI, WY

    Democratic pickups (7): CA, CT, FL, HI, MN, RI, VT

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    I'm not ready to flip WV yet!!!......
    The one thing Manchin has going for him, the same as Blumenthal really, is time.  There's such a thing as peaking too early, and their opponents might have done that.  I think Manchin (and Blumenthal, for that matter) will recover and get back over the hump.

    If this were October 29 instead of September 29, I'd say stick a fork in him, Manchin's done.  But with almost 5 weeks to go, he can still pull this out and I'm betting he still will.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    This is all fluid to me.
    Last week I thought Manchin would win.  This week I think Raese will win.  I don't mind twisting in the wind.  

    It's a toss-up race, the outcome of which will largely depend on how much baggage Raese has and how well Manchin exploits it.  West Virginia's opinion of Washington isn't going anywhere, and that's what's dragging Manchin down.  He just needs to beat the shit out of Raese.  He's in a good position to do it because his favorables are so high.  Negative campaiging usually drags down favorables, but Manchin has a lot to spend in that department.  I just don't know how much there is out there on Raese.  The workers comp/minimum wage/sales tax stuff that the Dems are hitting right now don't seem like enough.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Seem about right...
    I still think (and hope) we pull out Pennsylvania
    [ Parent ]
    PA Senate, that is...
    I don't think we'll pull out the governor.

    And like DC, I'm not giving up on Manchin, either.  

    [ Parent ]
    PA Sen
    Why on earth would you want that, unless you're a Republican?  There's a better shot of Sestak winning than Onorato.
    [ Parent ]
    I think he means win
    He's not saying that the DSCC will "pull out" its resources from PA, he's saying that he thinks, in the end, Joe Sestak will "pull out" a narrow victory despite the polls.  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Disagree on IL
    One big thing that Giannoulias has going for him (if PPP's numbers are correct) is that Kirk is every bit as unpopular as Giannoulias is (33/48 for Giannoulias; 33/47 for Kirk. My theory is that if a state features two candidates of nearly equal popularity (or, in this case, unpopularity) the state should revert to its normal partisan lean.

    Another interesting thing is that the undecideds in the race are largely Democrats and Independents, and Giannoulias's numbers are so low among Indies right now I have to wonder how many of those undecided Indies are left-leaning ones.

    I might be the last one here to say it, but I'm going to predict a Giannoulias win (as well as a Bennet win) come election day. Also I think that Manchin still wins WV and if Conway continues running good ads like the one he just played, maybe even knock off Rand Paul (now that would make anything else that happens in November worth it!)

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

    [ Parent ]
    Polls are slowly trending
    away from Giannoulias, plus Kirk has way more money to close with.  There is potential for a comeback for all the reasons you mention though.  A big Chicago turnout drive could do it.  The machine should be working hard.

    But, more importantly, what is Giannoulias' compelling case for being a United States Senator?  I don't see it.  And I don't see it with Bennet either.  If Giannoulias wins, it will be through the combination of the sheer strength of the Democratic machine in Illinois and the unforced errors that Kirk has committed.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Goes both ways though
    Kirk doesn't seem to have a very compelling case to make either, neither does Buck (well, unless he wants to help Maes stop Hickenlooper's bicycle conspiracy that is!)

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

    [ Parent ]
    IL
    I have to agree with you that while Alexi is terrible Kirk is inspiring nobody. Given the partisian nature of the state I see Alexi being able to take this. I think here is a state where Obama is popular so wouldn't they want to vote for a guy who will help his agenda in Congress? I know that Kirk has been moderate but exactly how will that hold up when McConnell gets in front of him. Unfortunately to win this is going to take a major drain of DSCC cash and Obama's time. Like Cyclone said, winning this seat and the GOP is really losing any major trophy talking points if they fail to get a majority. Would they really consider victories in ND, AR, IN, PA, WV, CO, WI trophies? Their trophies a few months ago were NV, IL, DE and to a smaller extent CA as they would have loved to have taken out Boxer.

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    This is only one LV poll
    but Obama is actually underwater in Illinois now at 44/49. I think that's a product of Chicago not enthusiastic to vote (therefore, people who like Obama but not likely to vote in the midterms aren't counted), and real disillusionment in the suburbs. Remember, the Chicago suburbs are usually more Republican then say, the Philly or NYC suburbs, as they went about 54% for Bush before swinging to Obama because of the home-state effect.

    Obama can still help by getting some of the people who like him excited and ready to vote for Alexi, but he won't have the sway outside of Chicago that he would have 2 years ago.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    National Journal House Cattle Call
    National Journal just released it's up to date look at which house seats are most likely to flip:

    1.TN-6
    2.NY-29
    3.LA-3
    4.AR-2
    5.DE-1 (dem)
    6.LA-2 (dem)
    7.TX-17
    8.CO-4
    9.VA-5
    10.IL-11
    11.PA-3
    12.FL-24
    13.KS-3
    14.IN-8
    15.IL-10 (dem)
    16.OH-1
    17.OH-15
    18.MS-1
    19.VA-2
    20.TN-8
    21.FL-2
    22.PA-11
    23.AR-1
    24.WA-3
    25.AZ-1
    26.AZ-5
    27.ND-1
    28.PA-8
    29.FL-8
    30.MD-1
    31.OH-16
    32.NY-19
    33.CO-3
    34.WI-7
    35.MI-1
    36.PA-7
    37.NH-2
    38.MI-7
    39.HI-1 (dem)
    40.NM-2
    41.NY-24
    42.WV-1
    43.NH-1
    44.SD-1
    45.SC-5
    46.AZ-8
    47.NY-1
    48.IN-9
    49.OH-13
    50.WI-8
    51.IL-17
    52.GA-8
    53.WA-2
    54.CA-47
    55.MA-10
    56.NV-3
    57.CT-4
    58.CA-3 (dem)
    59.AL-2
    60.GA-2

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    I'd have Joe Garcia winning before I'd have CA-3 flipping

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed


    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    Djou
    They seem overly bullish on Charles Djou's chances to maintain his seat. I'd have him pegged in the top 20 as I see no way he can split the left vote the way that he did in the special election. Other then that it's hard to find too big of a fault with many of these but having seats like both of the NH's rated near the control line is comforting as seats like these are ones where theoretically an uptick in the base's energy should be able to save the seat. I am also wondering why they don't have FL-25 on the list. On paper it seems as though the Dems have a good shot given a candidate who took 47% in 2008 vs. an incumbent who retired and is now running against a guy with very questionable ethics to say the least.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    no IA-03?
    I think Boswell is slightly favored to hold on, but I am surprised not to see the district on any list of 60 most likely to flip.
    [ Parent ]
    NJ had him toward the bottom at no. 57 last week, so...
    ...no surprise if he dropped out now.

    That's good news.  I bet private polling and field reports must have really turned around in that one.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    don't know about that
    DCCC just dropped another $82K on an ad buy in the district.

    I have no inside information on polling, but I assume it's still very close.

    [ Parent ]
    NY-Sen: Joe DioGuardi now graces NRSC's home page
    NM-Gov: Martinez up 8
    "Flood the Zone" (FTZ) Scotty: Reid by 1
    See my comment below analyzing this poll, which is more interesting than most. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    And one more from FTZ Scotty: Rubio by 11 over Crist
    Interesting internals on this one......
    Meek has a lot of work to consolidate the Dem base, which is to say he has a lot of room to grow.

    Meek supposedly is at only 58% with black voters--not sure that's right, the crosstabs could just be wrong on that one, but in this rare instance it's plausible even though that's not where he'll end up.

    Crist is at 50% with liberals, which again could just be bad crosstabs for a small subsample, but again it's plausible given the Dem is at a poor 21% in the topline.

    Democrats still split 41-41 between Crist and Meek.  That's a bigger subsample and likely true, again given that Meek has consolidated no more than half the Dem base.

    I think that if Meek's great ad works to get him past Crist, that could steamroll and lead to Meek consolidating the entire base, leaners included.  At that point, others, too, might start to abandon Crist as having no chance--but THOSE voters might go more toward Rubio than Meek...or maybe not.

    Totally unpredictable from here on out.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen: Interesting and unusual Rasmussen poll that's great for Reid......
    The topline today is ordinary:  Reid up 48-47 with leaners, 47-45 before pushing leaners.

    But internals are interesting on 2 things.

    First, favorables:  Reid is up to 48-50, his best in any poll perhaps in a couple years.  Angle is deeper underwater at 43-56 with a whopping 46% with a "very unfavorable" view of her.  Mason-Dixon's biweekly track commissioned by LVRJ doesn't show any movement upward in Reid's favorability, but Rasmussen has showed Reid inching up for some time.

    Second, the racial breakdown in this Rasmussen poll is eye-popping.  Rasmussen queries on the respondents' race with choices of "white," "black," and "other."  Their non-white samples are often screwy, especially for "other," so nothing unusual that they have "other" supporting Angle by an absurd 62-27 margin.  In reality Reid, not Angle, will win over 60% of "other" which in Nevada is mostly a large bloc of Hispanics.  But what is unusual is the white vote:  a 48-48 tie.  Keep in mind the crosstabs and turnout model show 74% of the 750-person sample was white, which means 555 white respondents.  The margin of error on that is roughly 4%, not too high at all.  So this subsample isn't so bad.

    Conclusion:  if Reid is really flirting with a tie among white voters, he's on track to win this running away.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    A couple more tidbits from the internals on this NV-Sen Rasmussen poll......
    More on white voters:  they have Reid's favorability at 46-52 with them, Angle worse at 45-55.

    And Obama job approval:  an improved 47-52, including 44-55 with white voters which is actually decent.

    It's always possible the topline is accurate but the internals are off due to subsample issues, that's true in this poll and all polls.  But I'm hoping these tea leaves are signaling more movement toward Reid.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Where did you find the internals, DC?
    Do you subscribe to Razzy?

    Hmmm, this is getting REALLY interesting! I also suspect Razzy pushed most Latin@s into "Other", which likely means Harry has a slightly bigger lead. And what % was other? (And for that matter, what % was African-American?)

    Ralston recently pegged Latin@ turnout at about 12-14%. I think that may happen, though there's potential for it to be higher if Angle's recent immigration flaps keep backfiring on her. (Yesterday, HER OWN FORMER SPOKESWOMAN bashed Angle's immigration ads on Spanish language radio!) If Reid can maximize East Side and West LV turnout (two heavily Latin@/AA areas) while winning Henderson & Summerlin (ritzier LV suburbs where Angle's Bible thumping hurts her) and winning Clark County overall by
    double digits, he'll win statewide.

    Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
    24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

    [ Parent ]
    I subscribe. I'm torn on that fact, but the only way to scrutinize Rasmussen...
    ...is to pay them for all the data.  And I'm enough the campaign junkie to do it.

    The crosstabs break down by "white," "black," and "other" in ALL Rasmussen polls, regardless of state and demographics.  They don't change the respondents' choices like a good poll would in states like Florida and Nevada or elsewhere.

    Only recently did Rasmussen provide a breakdown of their turnout model, but only for certain categories, and for race they provide only "white" and "nonwhite."  So no way to know what % black and what % "other."  No doubt "other" in Nevada is mostly Hispanic, but because Rasmussen doesn't even let respondents say they're Hispanic, we have no idea who they're really picking up with their automated calls.  Of course I presume the calls all are in English, so some Hispanic voters wouldn't even take the call, although I bet most Hispanic voters speak English anyway.

    Regarding Hispanic turnout in Nevada, exit polls pegged it at 7% in 2004 and 15% in 2008, thanks to the Obama machine combined with natural demographic change.  I read earlier this year that Dem strategists, pre-primary, feared it would be just 10% this fall, and that Reid needed it at 15% to have any chance to win.  But that was before Angle won the primary and everything changed.

    That's all really up to all of you on the ground now.

    My point on this Rasmussen poll is that the white subsample is large enough to have some reliability, much more than most subsamples, and if Reid is really running close with white voters, he's going to win big.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    CO-Gov: Dan Maes. The true story
    All of you probably remember when the Colorado Republican party almost convinced Dan Maes to drop out of the race, and there was a suggestion that there was something pretty bad in his background that hadn't come out yet?

    I think this was it. Apparently he was fired from his job as a police officer in Kansas for tipping off the subjects of an investigation

    http://blogs.denverpost.com/th...

    Not that it matters, since Tacrendo seems to be taking over as the defacto Republican candidate. But for those (like me) who were wondering.  

    If Maes gets less than 10%
    The CO GOP is relegated to minor party status for the next 4 years.  Sure that means they're being pushed down the ballot, but it still is quite embarrassing.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    Does the Constitution Party acquire "major party" status?
    Would be kind of weird, seeing them second on the ballot!

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    PPP: Burr up by 13
    Race is a toss-up
    Race is a toss-up when voters are educated about Marshall.

    Race becomes 47-45 Marshall.

    With no DSCC investment, this becomes a big, smelly, "Oh, well!"

    [ Parent ]
    If I were the DSCC, I wouldn't spend a dime on this race
    The numbers are all going the wrong way for Marshall. The DSCC doesn't have the extra money it had in 2008 to weigh in for her. It was up to Marshall to show she could be competitive on the fundrasing front. It's appears as if she's failed.

    The whole "among people who know them both" number is useless when she's not going to have enough money to mkae herself known. Also, note among this group of likley voters, Burr has 11 point favorability.

    I was always skeptical of Marshall given her lack of fundraising prowess. She's right on all the issues, and I'm sure she's a nice person, but without the money she's basically DOA at this point.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, agree with you
    If this were a "nice" contest, she'd be in the Senate already.

    Perhaps her dollars will turn into votes down the stretch.

    [ Parent ]
    Castle leaning against write-in
    Announcement could come today.

    http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/cnn_...

    Maine polls
    "Critical Insights" again.

    LePage and Mitchell now in a dead heat.  And the congressional races:

    In the race for Maine's 1st Congressional District, voters supported Democrat Chellie Pingree over Republican challenger Dean Scontras, 54 percent to 26 percent. Pingree's support had been 53 percent, compared to Scontras' 29 percent in the past poll. The undecided pool in that race shifted only a little, from 18 percent in the last poll to 19 percent.

    And in the 2nd Congressional District, Democrat Mike Michaud's support slipped from 48 percent to 44 percent, compared to Republican Challenger Jason Levesque's increase from 28 percent to 32 percent. The undecided pool stayed unchanged at 24 percent.

    http://www.onlinesentinel.com/...

    I guess LePage's dickishness is catching up to him.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    Like this?
    [ Parent ]
    Also where he was uncouth to a reporter a press conference
    who was asking about some issue with his campaign.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    Mainer's appreciate mean
    But crazy I don't think they get.
    [ Parent ]
    For what it's worth, Whitman quickly shot-down the allegations
    AK-Sen: Joe Miller did not file personal finances disclosure.
    That is illegal and he could face a $50K fine.
    http://thinkprogress.org/2010/...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    New Time poll
    Miller and Murkowski are neck-and-neck.

    From Political Wire:

    A new CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll in Alaska shows Joe Miller (R) leading Sen. Lisa Murkowski (I), 38% to 36%, with Scott McAdams (D) at 22%.

    Murkowski is running as an independent write-in candidate, though she says she'll still caucus with the Republicans if re-elected.

    How could a pollster even presume to poll this race, and in AK of all places!

    McAdams should just continue doing the positive stuff, 'cause it looks like Murk and Miller are gonna nuke each other.

    On Election Day, 20% of Murk's support could jump to McAdams.

    [ Parent ]
    You
    know the old saying the worst thing you can be is the frontrunner in a crowded southern primary. I think this is similar. I seriously doubt we win here but at the same time Murkowski and Miller are going to go uber negative on each other and McAdams can spend the whole time running a positive campaign and he could potentially squeak by. Like I said, I think it is highly unlikely we win here though, but at the same time I feel better about this race than NH, OH and NC. Let's just see if Murkowski holds up as viable as she is now.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    MI-01: Judge rules that Dan Benishek
    deliberately underestimated his income by $100K during court proceedings in order to pay significantly less in child support.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    Here's the link:
    http://michiganmessenger.com/4...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    SSP Daily Digest: 9/29 (Morning Edition) | 242 comments

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