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OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Two Polls Show Grim Reality for Fisher, But Hope for Strickland?

by: James L.

Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 7:43 PM EDT


CBS News/NY Times (9/23-27, likely voters, no trend lines):

Lee Fisher (D): 34
Rob Portman (R): 45
Undecided: 18

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42
John Kasich (R): 43
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Ipsos for Reuters (9/23-25, likely voters, 8/6-8 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 37 (36)
Rob Portman (R): 50 (43)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 46 (39)
John Kasich (R): 47 (48)
(MoE: ±4%)

More of the same for Lee Fisher, a guy whose campaign has few true believers these days. But what's this? Two polls showing Gov. Ted Strickland only down by a point? That's the best math we've seen for Strickland since May. Even recent polls from Rasmussen and the University of Cincinnati have this race in the low single-digits. Is it reasonable to hope that Ted Strickland has a fighting chance to hold this crucial office, despite the months-long narrative that Ohio Democrats are on the ropes?
James L. :: OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Two Polls Show Grim Reality for Fisher, But Hope for Strickland?
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OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Two Polls Show Grim Reality for Fisher, But Hope for Strickland? | 70 comments
Strickland is obviously doing something right...
It just sucks that Fisher is doing everything wrong.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
Strickland has ads everywhere...
...all over the Internet, even YouTube... He's certianly making the  most of Internet advertising (even though I think his ads could be better).  I guess it's working!  It's great news and a big shot in the arm for Dems in Ohio... just in time for early voting.
[ Parent ]
That's good, but what about field?
Don't get me wrong, good ads means good campaigning. I'm glad Strickland is getting that right.

I'm just wondering what he/and or the OH Dems and/or the unions have planned for field. At the end of the day, field is where a campaign is won.

And especially if the OH Dems and/or unions have a good field operation, that may also be good news for those vulnerable House Dems there.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Plouffe was in town with Strickland this week
President Obama's 2008 campaign manager David Plouffe joined Strickland on Tuesday's tour of northeast and central Ohio. Plouffe's remarks at the Cleveland rally were much more low-key than Strickland's, but the self-described "numbers guy" told reporters that he was beginning to see signs of greater Democratic enthusiasm.

"In terms of Democrats saying they're likely to vote, that's starting to look better for us," Plouffe said. "And the volunteer numbers here in Ohio, they're remarkable. This past weekend, we had tens of thousands of door knocks, over 2 million voter contacts, so volunteerism leads to better turnout."

Looks like they are taking GOTV operations seriously in Ohio.

Via RCP.

[ Parent ]
Historically, Strickland has had a very powerful machine field operation...
Whether it will be as strong this year is an open question, but I wouldn't be surprised if his improved standing is a result of ground game operations kicking in early.

He (and the Ohio dems) do maintain good contacts with his email list and certainly communicate with the activist base. I can say that from firsthand experience.

[ Parent ]
Hope, possiblity
When it comes to House races with the exception of Driehaus and possibly Kilroy I think the rest will survive. Fisher I never had much hope because I never thought of him as a great candidate while despite the obvious flaws Portman has becaome a great candidate to hold OH-Sen because of him being a walking political ATM and that wholesome down to earth moderate image he carved out during his days in Congress.

Kasich hasn't been able to carve out that moderate niche Portman has and the Dems have been airing ads regarding him and Lehman Brothers and his taxes. That could be bringing down.

Is there hope, looking like it. Can Strickland win, he could but I like to see some more polling to see if him catching up on Kasich is the read deal or just smoke if you know what I mean.

Strickland
knows how to run a campaign. Fisher doesn't. Any area where Strickland may carry the House member to victory?

I think Driehaus is done, more because of his district. Kilroy is done after her performance in 2008. Not sure about OH-16.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

they were on the same ticket
strickland couldn't have taken him aside some time in 07-10 and explained to him how to run a good campaign?  I imagine a lot of it is fishers' personality but still.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Fisher's entire strategy was riding Strickland's coattails...
...and counting on the governor's machine for the necessary votes.  Now that is out of the question and Lee is on his own, he's totally sunk.
[ Parent ]
When was the last time OH-15 was polled?
I have a feeling that if Strickland can pull out a win and OH Dems can at least narrow the gap a little for Fisher, perhaps Kilroy will squeak by again. IMHO she's one of the better Freshman Dems and I don't want to see her lose.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
OH-6 is his old district...
That makes Mr. Wilson more safe... There would be positive spillover into Zack Space's district.  If turnout in NE Ohio ends up being good, that saves Betty Sutton in OH-13.  so, there will be some positive effects from this development.
[ Parent ]
Lordmike you are right on target
Strickland always runs strongest in the northeast and southeast of the state, though he usually does well in Columbus too.  The northwest and southwest, particularly the latter, was where he really struggled in his first governor race in 2006.  (He failed to carry Hamilton County despite being north of 60% of the vote).  

Space, Wilson, and Sutton will definitely get a bounce if he is running close or winning.  Boccieri might get in on that as well but he might not because his district is more agriculture-based, exurban territory.  Kilroy is another question mark, for her it will all come down to GOTV in Columbus as a great student population resides in OH-15 (that's where Ohio State University is).  Strickland won't be able to help Driehaus.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
I want to say thank you for your smart take on this topic here and in a comment in another thread......
Your explanation of why and how Strickland can and cannot help various House incumbents is an example of exactly why I read this blog so obsessively.  Awesome stuff!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Strickland may help in the legislature
Right now we have a 53-46 Dem controlled House but a 21-12 GOP Senate.  I think Dems will pick up 1 Senate seat (Coughlin-open) to bring that to 20-13.  The House will be close.  It is essential to keep as many seats as possible for the upcoming budget fight.
[ Parent ]
Driehaus's problem
is that, unlike many of the freshmen and sophomores, people elected him solely because of the wave, not because they disliked Chabot.  So now the same voters who tossed out Chabot last time are clamoring for him back, and there's nothing Driehaus can do about it.  I really can't imagine a candidate who could win under those circumstances.

Patrick Murphy, in a similar situation, has the advantage that people tossed out Fitzpatrick really disliked the bastard.  So they don't want him back now even if they're dubious about Murphy.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Strickland
 Was never popular in Cinncinati because he did not even win Hamilton County when he won with 61% in 2006. Also, I see him as a Democrat who is more popular with working class voters and the unions so I think he will not be much help in Columbus. I would not be surprised if Strickland lost Franklin County but managed to win due to his margins in NE Ohio and the Ohio Valley.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
How did Strickland do...
In Franklin County in 2006? Was it better than the state average? Worse? And since Columbus is the state capital, aren't there a number of state workers in the Columbus area?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
True
 But Strickland seems to have an old school Ohio Democratic coalition and Franklin County used to be more Republican.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Strickland won Franklin County by nearly 2 to 1
(65% to 33%) in 2006.  He will need to win there again by 10 points or so to eke out a win statewide.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

[ Parent ]
I think you are right
 But in 2000, Gore won Franklin by only 2 points and still lost by 3.5 points statewide even when there was no gigantic turnout in Cuyahoga County. I think any Democrat needs to win big in Franklin County today to offset Republican margins in the suburbs but Strickland may be able to counterbalance Republican margins with NE Ohio votes.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
does the Ohio Dem Party
have any kind of real coordinated campaign? Strickland is going to need strong GOTV to pull through.
candidates and campaigns
This shows that candidates and campaigns matter and the economy and the national environment aren't everything. A little while ago these two races were in about the same place. Strickland seems to be doing a much better job than Fisher (and/or Portman doing better than Kasich) at playing the hand he's been dealt.

41, Ind, CA-05
still stirckland is an incumbent
whether that means his campaign is easier or harder is difficult to tell these days

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Let me be the first to say it
Portman will not only win, he'll be the GOP VP nominee in 2012.
He was on the McCain shortlist....
His running now is to get him back in elected office to set him up for the gig in the future.  
[ Parent ]
why I disagree
I don't believe either major party will nominate an all white/male ticket for a while again.
[ Parent ]
they could be nominating a female at the top
just sayin'....
[ Parent ]
depends on who gets the nod
i couldn't see romney nominating another moderate business conservative in portman, unless he's going for a clintonian double-dip of demographics (bill choosing another southerner in Al Gore).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
bold!
And sounds about right, but his Bush baggage would really come into play here so I wouldn't do it.
[ Parent ]
Fisher has been an embarassment...
He seemingly pulled a Coakley, but took the whole summer off.  He's an epic drag on Strickland as well.  If Lee could have been within single digits, Strickland would probably be ahead.

Brunner might not have been a good fundraiser, but she brought energy - something the Fisher campaign is lacking completely.  

I don't see what else he could do
With the funding disparity. Unless he had spent early in the hope of staying in touch then bringing more in. The Jerry Brown strategy was never gonna work because Ohio is not California.
[ Parent ]
Roscoe, I couldn't have said it better
Brunner was charismatic.  Brunner always worked hard on the campaign trail.  Brunner fights hard for what she believes in and doesn't compromise.  Brunner would've brought out the base in big numbers.  The only thing she couldn't do was fundraise, unfortunately.  The fact that she often butted heads with the ODP and Strickland, especially leading up to the 2010 Senate primary, didn't help matters.

Fisher on the other hand, is a generally unlikeable, somewhat lazy, career politician that nobody really likes.  Major primary fail for Team Blue.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Sigh, could we please stop comparing EVERYONE to Coakley??? No Fisher is NOT...
...pulling a Coakley.  He's just a bad candidate and always was.  He won the primary because he was less bad a candidate than Brunner.

Fisher didn't sit on his ass because he had a 20-point lead and he took victory for granted and tried to just run out the clock.  That's what Coakley did, and that's different from Fisher because she COULD have run a lot better campaign.

Fisher is constitutionally incapable of running a good statewide campaign.

Coakley is not incapable, she just failed to do it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I second this opinion
Coakley was, without a doubt, the worst statewide candidate in recent political history; a distinction previously held by Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Comparing every lackluster candidate to her is really unfair to them and underestimates the level of incompetence shown in the MA-Sen campaign.

20, Ind, PA-14
[ Parent ]
The latest Rasmussen poll for FOX
Has Kasich up just 45-43.
Hope he pulls this one out
Seeing Strickland show signs of life makes me really happy. The Midwest is looking like it's going to be a real shitshow for Democratic governor's seats with Culver, Bernero and Barrett likely losing to faux moderates. Dayton picking up Minnesota and Strickland winning re-election would be a real bright spot.

I don't think Fisher's necessarily a bad candidate, but you can't win in a swing state in a bad year for your party when you're being as outspent as he is. If he had the cash to compete, this might be close, but Portman's already pulled away.  

In defense of Lee Fisher
As I predicted earlier we are getting a lot of "well Brunner would be doing so much better". Well I want to give one reply to this and I pledge here and now this will be my last Fisher V Brunner comment until after the election.

Yes Brunner is so energetic and such a good campaigner. She knows how to bring the base out. Yeah because she totally got her base out on primary day, oh wait... Fisher has ran a crappy campaign, but what do you expect? Portman is a great candidate. He is probably the best the GOP could have gotten. He is a GREAT fundraiser, good on tv and very electable. I can't think of a better candidate the GOP could have gotten. He would be crushing anyone, and yes that definitely includes Brunner. I see no evidence that she would be doing better now at all. I am aware that we can never know for sure but I honestly think she would be doing worse. This race has always been, as clone put it, fools gold. So who won the primary is really pointless. Even if we would have gotten an A list candidate we would still have little to no chance. I correctly predicted a few nights after the Ohio primary that we would be hearing a lot of people saying how better we would be with Brunner regardless of how the campaign went. Everyone complains about Fisher running a crappy campaign, well do you want to know his biggest problem? Money. He has gone silent because he does not have the money to make this an effective race. Does anyone here honestly think Brunner would be doing a whole lot better on that front? I don't think any candidate would, who wants to give money to a candidate who can't win? Of course the biggest argument, "Brunner brings out the base". Bull, she has a boat load of net root love but net root love does not add up to actual votes most of the time. I am guessing that this race currently looks like 55-45 Portman, had Brunner been the nominee I would say, 60-40 Portman. I started this campaign as a Brunner backer but at the end of the day the thing I want most in a candidate is their ability to win the general. She did not possess this ability. I foolishly thought Fisher did, but I still do not regret my support for Fisher, he is still the better candidate to them in my book.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Portman is not a great candidate.
He was OMB Director and Trade Representative during the Bush administration. If anything, this is the place to use anti-Bush ads.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
While
that is not a thing for him to campaign on I do not see that as being the worst thing in the world. He should probably avoid mentioning it for sure but Bush bashing plain and simply will not work this cycle. Don't get me wrong if this was 08 he would be toxic but 2010 not so much. If you don't mind me asking who do you think the GOP should have gone with? I can't think of anyone personally. DeWine is the best I could come up with and that is saying something.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I do not know.
I can tell you that Jon Husted, who will likely be Secretary of State after this year, is a great guy for the Republicans to have in the Senate.

I would consider the entire Republican congressional delegation besides Boehner, Austria, and Schmidt as being somewhat better than Portman. If the electorate had been even neutral, they probably would have had to go with one of these rather than Portman. But since it is a Republican year, Portman is certainly fine.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
It's pretty obvious that the anti-Bush strategy isn't a winning one this year.
The public have shown themselves to have incredibly short memories.
[ Parent ]
Thank you thank you thank you! I, too, am tired of the foolish counterfactual re Brunner......
Brunner was a GODAWFUL candidate.  She made Fisher look like a fundraising powerhouse.  And her field campaign was much touted but didn't deliver.

If Brunner was a better candidate than Fisher, she would have won the primary.  This wasn't a scenario where voters were unsure what to do and managed to nominate the wrong candidate, it was simply that the better of the two candidates won.  But the best candidate was still bad.

I hear this same shit here about VA-Gov last year, that we should've nominated McAuliffe or Moran and we would've done better.  It's equally horseshit.  Deeds proved far worse than any of us imagined, but McAuliffe and Moran both had obvious and loud damaging flaws that made them weaklings against McDonnell right from the start.  McAuliffe ran the best campaign in that primary, but his public baggage was very heavy to be running for Governor right out of the gate, as his first try for elective office, and everyone saw that.

In OH-Sen, it's even more obvious that Fisher was less bad than Brunner.  I agree completely, she'd be down by a LOT more right now than Fisher.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree
And honestly, Brunner's attitude just before and after the primary shows not only someone who is vindictive but someone whose political skills aren't all that they're cracked up to be (because, rightly or wrongly, she will be partially blamed for Fisher's loss in November because of her challenge and her refusal to endorse or campaign for him during the general).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
She got 45% of the vote....
...without a SINGLE TV OR RADIO AD.

Lee fisher had to spend $1 million to get 55% of the vote.  She spent practically nothing.

Give her some money (which was choked off to her) and she would have done significantly better than loser Lee Fisher.

[ Parent ]
If you can't raise even $1M for a statewide campaign in a year's time in Ohio
You shouldn't be in the damn race. I don't want to get dragged into another round of Fisher vs. Brunner. She lost the primary because of lack of money, Fisher is, at best, an average fundraiser, Brunner is an atrocious one, end of story.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Money was NOT "choked off," that's the biggest lie and delusion there is regarding Brunner......
There is gobs of money out there to be had.  If you really have the "grassroots support" you claim to have, then the money will follow.  We are in an age where donors do what they want, they don't take orders from anyone.  Small-dollar donors have proliferated into the millions.  Freakin' Christine O'Donnell is raising 7 figures, I bet most of it without picking up the phone, for a race she has zero chance of winning, that's how easy it is these days if you have any organic following at all.

Brunner surely didn't do the work one must do to raise money, probably because she hates it like everyone does but in her case she wasn't willing to overcome that and just do it.  And she uses "choked off" as a cover story that her sycophants buy wholesale.

You can always raise money if you do the work unless there's something very wrong with you that targeted donors realize quickly.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
...and I'm sorry for the harshness, but this just triggers me because it's just like...
...VA-Gov last year, and I have to listen to people complaining we should have nominated McAuliffe or Moran.

The truth is sometimes a good candidate just isn't available.  That can be hard to believe in any relatively big competitive state, but it happens.  There just wasn't a good candidate available last year in Virginia, just like there wasn't a good candidate available this year in OH-Sen.  Yes there were good prospective candidates who COULD have run, but I'm talking about the people who CHOSE to run.

If anyone wants to point fingers in OH-Sen, the DSCC is a good place to point.  Candidate recruitment is their job, and it looks like they didn't do their homework, assuming they didn't try and fail to recruit someone better than Fisher we don't know about.  People complain about the party establishment taking sides in primaries, but this is WHY they take sides, to make sure electable candidates are offered, but yes they screw up sometimes.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
on the topic of ohio
I could see kuchinich getting a surprise loss.  sure his district is very democratic, but in an odd, anti-incumbent anti-dem year, i could see voters just saying eh to kucinich.  not saying it's likely, just about 1-5%.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
no chance
not reality
[ Parent ]
it's only D+8
dems have districts far more republican than this one is republican and it's hard to tell what kind of year it will be for ohio.  plus he isn't exactly the best congressman.  i'd say 1-5%, considering the surprises of 2006, like shea porter for example, is perfectly reasonable.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
meant to say
dems have district more republican than this one is democratic.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Extremely unlikely...
Had the GOP nominated a decent candidate like Jim Trakas, then yes, Kucinich could have been vulnerable in his conservadem district.  But, they have some nobody on the ticket with zero dollars and that just won't do it.  Dennis has a strong base of support due to his local and ethnic roots.  That's enough to win against a nobody.
[ Parent ]
I'd like to add...
...that I expect Dennis to run one of his standard homemade/home video camera commercials with regular (mostly union) folks in his district saying how Dennis supported them in their time of need.  Kucinich runs a very down to earth homespun campaign and it really works.  He's holding a birthday party fundraiser in a couple of weeks.  The cost?  $10 a head.  He doesn't need the money... he just wants to maintain a general goodwill with his constituents.  That relationship had been strained as of late, but time heals all wounds, and he's done a good job of bringing his supporters back in the fold.
[ Parent ]
Ohio CBS-New York Times poll
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-50...

Kasich 43%
Strickland 42%
Undecided 11%

Portman 45%
Fisher 34%
Undecided 18%

A 4th poll showing Strickland closing.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

That's one of the polls in the post n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
oops
Sorry about that.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
How good is the Democratic ground game/GOTV in Ohio?
I remember hearing a ton of buzz in 2008 that Obama's ground game in Ohio was amazingly good, but he only improved on Kerry's number by 2.5%, much less than he improved on Kerry in most other states. If there is a strong existing Democratic field operation in Ohio though, that could really help Strickland, because success in that state depends so much on turning out the urban and union vote.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
If memory serves
Kerry actually had a really strong GOTV operation in Ohio too. Kerry actually did better than Gore did in Ohio even though he did worse nationally than Gore did. What I'm hoping for is Democrats to take advantage of early voting like they did in 2008, it's something we should have done a long time ago.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Early Voting will be the key in a lot of states
Ohio, Nevada, California, Florida, Colorado for example. Much easier to get an unenthusiastic voter to vote when you have a few weeks to do it or can do it by mail.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Don't forget New Mexico
In 2008 it was estimated that over half of all ballots were cast before election day. Obama guaranteed his victory long before November 2nd, at least here!

If Heinrich, Teague, Denish, and the New Mexico Democratic Party are smart, they've invested a large amount into early voting this time around (if Denish wants to win, that's part of how she does it).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Alex Sink is already posting ads encouraging people to vote early.
Saying that if you don't vote, Scott will be your next Governor.  Quite a good motivation.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The Kerry campaign revitilized a moribund state party...
Had the Ohio Democrats been actually viable in 2000, Gore would have won the state.  He only lost by a hair, and that was with ZERO GOTV effort.
[ Parent ]
In 2000
 Gore decided to put all of his eggs in one basket so he pulled out of Ohio in mid October and lost by only 3.5 points, despite barely winning Franklin County and losing Hamilton County by about 11 points.

In 2004, Kerry campaigned as hard as he could in Ohio. He got almost every Democrat in NE Ohio to vote. He increased his margin over Gore's by 60,000 votes in Cuyahoga County (which was losing population.) If Bush's rural margins remained about the same, Kerry would have won by about 15,000-20,000 votes. The problem was that Bush got almost every Republican to vote in rural Ohio, therefore Kerry lost.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Kerry "lost"
because of tremendous vote-suppression in heavily Democratic areas. We both know that it somehow took no time to vote in heavily Republican areas, and that by some "odd coincidence," people lined up for more than 8 hours in the rain in heavily Democratic areas. And that doesn't count caging, etc., etc., etc.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Oh, please, no more Ohio conspiracy theories......
Bush won Ohio fair and square.

Florida 2000 was another story.

But Ohio 2004 was fair and square.

Kerry EXCEEDED the campaign's own vote goals all over the state.  They and the Bush people knew that, and BOTH sides entered the late afternoon/early evening thinking Kerry had won the election.

It was only after returns came in that it became apparent the Bush turnout machine had far exceeded the Bush campaign's own expectations.

That's why we lost:  Bush just scrounged up a lot more votes than anyone thought possible.

Ohio had a whopping 66.8% of eligible adults actually vote; that's not the percentage of registered voters, but the percentage of adults whether registered or not.  Thc country had 60.1% turnout, a few points higher than what most analysts and both campaigns thought would clinch a Kerry win on the assumption that extra voters translate to better results for Kerry in linear fashion.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
You don't think
all of the shenanigans could have accounted for Kerry's ultimate 100,000-vote deficit in Ohio? The stuff you mention doesn't change the facts of how Democratic votes were successfully suppressed. Bush might or might not have won Ohio without Blackwell doing all kinds of shit, but "fair and square" is certainly NOT how I would expect any reasonable person to describe the 2004 Presidential election in Ohio, and since I have found your political points reasonable until now, I'm surprised you are making this claim.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Why does early voting only benefit Democrats?
Can't Republicans get more of their voters to the polls with early in-person and mail voting too? I never hear about how early voting can help our side, it seems like every time it's ever mentioned it's considered a Democratic strength. How did that happen?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Because early voting provides more opportunities to vote
For the Democratic coalition (young, nonwhite, and/or poor) it makes it easier to vote. Your question should not be "Why isn't early voting good for Republicans too?" it should be "Why didn't the Democrats use this to their advantage earlier than 2008?"

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
To expand on this
In the average swing constituency, there are more Democrats than Republicans, but the Republican turnout rate is higher than the Democratic turnout rate, leading to a roughly equal number of votes for each party.

As DGM said, early voting provides more opportunities to vote for people who otherwise could not.  But even if it affected Republican and Democratic populations equally, there are simply fewer Republican non-voters for it to help.

Example:

70,000 Democrats, e-day turnout rate 50%
50,000 Republicans, e-day turnout rate 70%
Result: D 35,000 - R 35,000 (50%/50%)

If early voting allows 10% of previous non-voters to participate:

70,000 Democrats, turnout rate (50% e-day + 5% early)
50,000 Republicans, turnout rate (70% e-day + 3% early)
Result: D 38,500 - R 36,500 (55%/45%)

[ Parent ]
Obama's improvment
 Was more like 3.0 over Kerry. Also, the small increase is probably because Kerry had already turned out most of the Democrats and unlike North Carolina or Indiana, there were not too many new Democrats to turn out. In Cuyahoga County, Obama only got 10,000 votes more than Kerry and turnout overall there decreased.  Also, Obama lost ground in SE Ohio which brought down his statewide percentage.

Another factor is that the rural areas had lower turnout and Obama improved in some of them (turning a 22% Bush margin in OH-5 to an 8% McCain margin.) Turnout overall increased only by 15,000 votes and McCain got 183,000 votes less than Bush.

Obama did improve in Franklin County which has some population growth and is trending Democratic. He also worked much harder in Hamilton County which Kerry did not work too hard in.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Two Polls Show Grim Reality for Fisher, But Hope for Strickland? | 70 comments

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