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NV-Sen, NV-Gov: When POS Gives Better Results Than the LVRJ

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 9:18 AM EDT


Mason-Dixon for Las Vegas Review-Journal (9/20-22, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parentheses):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (46)
Sharron Angle (R): 43 (44)
Scott Ashjian (T): 1 (-)
Tim Fasano (AIP): 1 (-)
NOTA: 4 (3)
Undecided: 8 (6)

Gubernatorial numbers, trendlines

Rory Reid (D): 37 (36)
Brian Sandoval (R): 51 (52)
Other: 3 (2)
NOTA: 2 (2)
Undecided: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4%)

Is it safe to say that nothing new is going on in the Nevada races, at least according to Mason-Dixon? They see only a point or two of movement in each race.

Public Opinion Strategies (9/21-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 45
Sharron Angle (R): 40
Scott Ashjian (T): 1
NOTA: 7
Undecided: 6

Rory Reid (D): 39
Brian Sandoval (R): 45
Other: 2
NOTA: 9
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Instead, all the excitement seems to be surrounding this poll from the Republican internal pollster, POS (although thanks to lots of leaking from Jon Ralston, we all knew about it last Friday). I'm not sure on whose behalf POS polled the race, or whose partisan interest they're serving by leaking these results, but at any rate they give Harry Reid one of the best results he had since the GOP primary, and even more interestingly, the first poll ever to have Rory Reid within single digits of Brian Sandoval. Is there dual Reid-mentum going on, or just a blip?

UPDATE: atdleft, in the comments, points out that the poll was on behalf of the Nevada Retail Association, who are probably more interested in taxation issues and aren't likely to be interested in trying to spin the statewide race toplines.
Crisitunity :: NV-Sen, NV-Gov: When POS Gives Better Results Than the LVRJ
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NV-Sen, NV-Gov: When POS Gives Better Results Than the LVRJ | 44 comments
When did Meg Whitman
decide to move to Nevada and run for Senate?
Well
 Maybe she decided that although she spent 119 million, California was still too expensive for her to spend that much money and be sucessful. Therefore, she moved to Nevada because it is much cheaper and more Republican.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Whenever I see this type of innocent mistake...
It reminds me of this Onion article...

http://www.theonion.com/articl...

[ Parent ]
She's
She's taking a gamble.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
why not
She is trying to buy the Governorship of California, why not a senate seat in Nevada. lol
[ Parent ]
Sharron Angle is actually Meg Whitman?
The shocking truth comes out!

King Harkinian from the Zelda CD-i games

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
My boy
This peace this dinner holding two stadewide offices in two different states at the same time is what all true warriors ridiculously wealthy businesspersons strive FOR.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Bo
Bo could have done it - Bo could have been in the House and Senate at the same time!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Wow Meg Whitman is that dam rich
Running in races in two different states. What's next, chalenge Orrin Hatch for the Senate in Utah in 2012? lol

But in all seriously this is the first time I have ever seen POS give us a good poll result. I don't know what to make of that. To sum it up Reid is still up by a few points.

As for baby Reid, it's just a blip for him.

AshJian's numbers have collapsed
(per the POS PDF, it was 16% in Feb, it's now 1%)

which suggests that Angle (or Whitman or whomever) is crazy enough, so she has consolidated Tea Party support under her --ah-- platform.

true
but 'teh crazy' will lose to the moderates(indy's)and left in november; angle simply won't get over a 45% threshold in this race
[ Parent ]
plus there is NOTA
as a protest. Reid is hovering around 45% in most of the polling. He needs to drive Angle's negative up much much more to win.  
[ Parent ]
Not too much more...
Actually, her negatives are about as bad as his... Or possibly even WORSE, depending on which poll you want to believe the most.

I've always thought that Reid will have it in the bag if he can reach the high 40s and stay there. So if he's in the mid 40s, he just needs another 2-4% to clinch this win.

And with the exception of Razzy (which pushes everyone one way or another), everyone else has Angle no higher than the mid 40s. That's probably her ceiling. And NOTA may very well get mid-to-high single digits while the third parties and indie candidates split another few percent, so Reid just needs to close in the high 40s to win for sure.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
The one thing about Angle's favorability ratings that puzzles me...
...is that there still are 10-20% undecided on what they think of her.

Really?  After all these ads on all your favorite shows, and I presume on the radio, too, on your a.m. and p.m. work commutes, you still don't have an opinion?

I would understand it if there were positive ads helping Angle, in which case some in the audience could be legitimately conflicted.  But there's really been little-to-nothing on the air to make anyone like Angle.  Only the Republican base thinks well of her, and then only because she's conservative and has the "R" next to her name.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Blip
If it were just the NV-Sen numbers, I'd say it was real movement.  I've been amazed that Angle has held on to this tie given the level of fire that has come her way over the countless weird things she has said.  They must really hate Harry Reid for her to still be even.  But with those Gov numbers - I don't believe that; no other pollster has shown anything like it and I see no event that would have caused Jr. to pick up that much support, so I just think it's an overly friendly Reid sample.  Now if another pollster comes along and sees that sort of movement; well, then I'll admit to being wrong, but right now the poll just looks like an outlier.
I still would bet on Reid winning this race, but to me it looks like a game of inches.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
At least by reputation
POS is as pro-R in their samples as Rasmussen.

But fwiw, Q3 supports the thought that Ds are recovering some in NV relative to Feb (or from your perspective, this is a more D-friendly sample).

Q3 is a state legislative generic vote question, which was

28-34 (D/R) in Feb
42-40 (D/R) today.

[ Parent ]
POS
Yea, I know POS is a (R) pollster, I just tend to suspect it's an outlier.  I don't usually waste much time fussing about poll numbers because they don't count or anything and if there is a trend, it'll show up soon enough.  As much as this race has been getting polled, I'll suspect it'll only be a day or two before we get some fresh numbers to chew on and then we'll be able to spot if there's a trend or not.  I really wouldn't be surprised to see Reid Sr. doing better, but I would be surprised at Reid Jr.  For now, I'm just enjoying all those new Fox/Ras polls.  Except for the Kasich one - dang, John, hold on!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Actually, I think it's the other way around...
The Fox/Razzy polls looked to ugly to be true, and I suspect they were. Not even the other Razzy outfit had Angle ahead!

And before anyone else mentions CNN/OR, remember that they're the ones who thought Reid was doing better in Washoe than Clark (remember this NEVER happens)!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Um, POS is actually Angle's OWN pollster!!!......
A different partner than the one who did this poll handles Angle's account, but it's the same firm.  Ralston has said given it's the same firm, Angle's own numbers aren't going to be much different.  I think that's right.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I am with you on that...
I too am amazed that she has withstood the onslaught wrought by Sen. Reid. I truly expected that this race would be lost by now - Reid has a 3-1 advantage in money and possibly resources. The fact that Angle is keeping it close should be worrisome for Reid and his campaign.

As someone who supported Tarkanian in the primary, I am not a big fan of Angle - without doubt, she's on the fringe of the Tea Party movement, but then I'm reminded that she is running again Sen. Reid....

This i going to close and whoever has the better ground game, wins this...and all indications are that it's Sen. Reid who's going have the superior effort on election day.

35, male, Indian-American, Republican, MD-08 (formerly MI-9)

[ Parent ]
Tark
Yea, I can understand people in the GOP primary not voting for Sue the Chicken woman - who ran a lousy campaign.  But why did they switch to Angle and not Tark?  He was running as being somewhat Tea Party-ish too, wasn't he?  I even recall one of the Tea Party groups endorsed him.  I knock I heard on him was that he was lazy and running on Daddy's name, but I think he'd have put this race away by now.  I have never understood what motivated that many people to choose Angle.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Thank
the Tea Party Express & Club for (Democratic) Growth for propping up Angle here.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Sheesh
The Club for Shrinkage should have known better, but I have never considered them tactical geniuses.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
That's quite the spin! Somehow this is bad for Reid, LOL!!!......
Reid was dead in the water in all trial heat polling pre-primary, even to Angle.  And he still trailed Angle narrowly immediately post-primary.

Since then, he's staked out AND HELD a small lead for several months.  And Angle does nothing to reverse it, she only keeps digging new holes she can't climb out of.

And on top of all this, you concede Nevada Dems have a stronger field campaign, which is true.  The Nevada GOP is broke and has no field campaign at all, the campaigns are on their own except for Rove's group trying to help but that's not effective as you can't just parachute in from out of state and do good field quickly.

Reid and his campaign are not the least bit worried at all.  They knew all along this was a tough slog, and they've known all along Reid can't and won't win by much, especially with the economy as it is.  They're right where they expected to be and wanted to be at this stage.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I don't think it's spin
Reid should be dead in the water now because Republicans should have ran Generic R. But they nominated a crazy who makes a major gaffe at least once a week, and a minor one daily. Angle is destroying herself without help from Reid and making even Republicans question whether she's fit for office. On top of all this, the incumbent Senate Majority Leader has been using his massive campaign war chest for the past 2 months to run an absolutely brutal negative campaign against her with a few Hall-of-Fame worthy attack ads. Angle has scored one hit of her own, with the immigration spot, but has not come close to challenging Reid's dominance of the airwaves.

Yet despite this amazingly good ad campaign and Angle's incompetency, Reid cannot break 45% and is tied with Angle in most polls. Despite her self-induced implosion, Angle is not going away. The POS poll is not good news for Angle because I expected Republicans to have this one in the bag now, but being up 45-40 against a crazy is not exactly inspiring for Reid.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Not spin really, just realty...at least from my vantage point
I was being honest about the current situation. Sen. Reid was certainly dead in the water about 6 months ago - but that was before our party settled on a nominee.

In my opinion (and I believe many of this forum), this race would have been leaning R at this stage if we had nominated Tarkanian or the chicken-lady (forgot her name). The fact that Sen. Reid is tied or slightly leading is a function of his opponent being Angle and not because Nevadian want to necessarily return him to DC.

The other point I was trying to make is that with all of his resources, to be tied (2 or 3 point ahead) to Angle, who is assuredly one fry short of a happy meal, cannot be a position of comfort for the Senate Majority Leader.

Our only hope at this point is (1) get a better turnout and (2) hope the undecided break for Angle.

Peace.

35, male, Indian-American, Republican, MD-08 (formerly MI-9)

[ Parent ]
Two problems with your theory...
First, this isn't a traditional "Incumbent vs. Challenger" election. Angle's favorability numbers are as low as Reid's. It isn't a given that undecideds will break toward Angle... Or Reid, for that matter. That's why some are suggesting we could see NOTA as high as 10% this year.

Secondly, stronger turnout will probably help Reid. The Nevada Dems have a VERY strong field operation. The GOP has none, and at this point they're hoping Karl Rove can give them a "Hail Mary".

And finally, while both Lowden & Baby Tark were better candidates than Angle, that still doesn't mean they were good candidates. Lowden obviously provided plenty of fodder for us, but Baby Tark also has his own skeletons hiding in the closet. And he's about as despised by the GOP establishment as Angle is.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
with Ashijan plummeting in polling
Its probably more of an indication of Angle tying up loose ends with those supporters to stay competitive vs Reid's campaigning not doing its job.  Hell, maybe the ads up to this point have actually helped Angle consolidate her base of crazy.
[ Parent ]
Actually, two other pollsters have...
Rory Reid's internal from a couple weeks ago had him down 7%, and a private poll Ralston leaked had Rory down 9%.

And considering POS' track record here and Mason-Dixon's occasional screwiness, I'd go with POS here. Sometimes, the public polls aren't always the best when it comes to judging the real state of the race.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Yup, correct on other private polls showing Rory inside 10......and also POS is Angle's own pollster!!!......
A different partner, from the one who conducted this released poll, at POS does Angle's own polling!

Ralston pointed out this fact in a tweet in explaining Angle's own numbers, by the same firm, can't be much different.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What is it with POS?
Their House polls paint a dire picture for Democrats yet their Senate numbers, here and in Colorado, have much more positive numbers for the incumbents than all other polling. Odd.
Because the Nevada Retailers Association...
Paid for this poll. Usually GOP campaigns hire POS, but here in Nevada "the other NRA" uses them to poll on tax and business issues.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
The Retail Association of Nevada...
Paid for this poll. They're mostly concerned about their own issues, but they also wanted to poll on the big races to see who they may be dealing with next year. Ralston mentioned it on Friday.

And btw, Meg Whitman is NOT running here... She's next door. I don't even see her ads here. (But please do NOT give her ideas!)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

Las Vegas market is entirely in Nevada
No reason to advertise there.  The Reno market does bleed into California a bit, but it only touches a few sparsely populated counties in the Sierra (Alpine, Mono, Lassen and the eastern half of El Dorado).  Even for Whitman that seems like a relatively large market to reach a small number of voters, so I suspect the Reno folks aren't seeing her ads either.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Actually, the Las Vegas market...
Does spill into California, but it only reaches the mostly unpopulated desert along I-15 up to Mountain Pass.

Btw, I was kidding about eMeg buying ads here. I know her campaign wouldn't be foolish enough to do that, but then again they've already been foolish in oversaturating California markets to the point of voters turning AGAINST her because of her ads.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I get a kick out of calculating the NV races...
Democrat - 36%
GOP - 34%
Independent - 30%

Reid - 87/5/40 = 45%
Angle - 7/85/43 = 45%
Ashjian - 0/3/3 = 2%
Other - 2/3/5 = 3%
None - 4/4/9 = 5%

(My August projection had Angle up 47-46.)

Reid - 83/3/38 = 42%
Sandoval - 13/93/50 = 52%
Other - 1/1/4 = 2%
None - 3/3/8 = 4%

(I think I had Sandoval up 53-39 in August.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

That's an awfully high # of Indies...
Non-partisans (aka Independents) only make 15.4% of all registered voters in the state. And most often, they don't "over-represent" in midterm elections.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
And btw...
Democrats make up 42.3% of registered voters in the state, and Republicans make up 36.9%.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Meg Whitman's money can buy a lot
But I'm pretty sure it can't buy her spots on the ballot for two different offices in two different states.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
The filing fee's only chump change for her.
If Alvin Greene can find $10,440 lying around...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Residency laws
Make it slightly more difficult.
[ Parent ]
Residency laws
are for the little people.
[ Parent ]
I guess the mods are napping or ganja-ing
nm
[ Parent ]
There we go!
nm
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen, NV-Gov: When POS Gives Better Results Than the LVRJ | 44 comments

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