Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 9/27 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 8:01 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski is seeking clarification on just how expansively the state elections board will view misspellings or variants of her name. Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell, who's in charge of all this, previously said he leans "toward a liberal view" of how to count Murkowski ballots, but now he's refusing to get more specific. See you in court?

  • DE-Sen: Bill Maher keeps serving up the goodies:
  • O'DONNELL: You know what, evolution is a myth. And even Darwin himself -

    MAHER: Evolution is a myth?!? Have you ever looked at a monkey!

    O'DONNELL: Well then, why they - why aren't monkeys still evolving into humans?

  • FL-Sen: Former Rep. Robert Wexler became one of the most prominent Democrats to break ranks and endorse Charlie Crist. Wexler, who has long had a close relationship with Crist, famously abandoned his party earlier this year by resigning his seat in the middle of the term, before the final votes on healthcare reform.
  • FL-Gov: Douchebag zillionaire Rick Scott really just out-did himself with only three words. When asked if he had forked over another million bucks to his campaign (he had), Scott responded: "I don't know." I guess it's easy to forget writing seven-figure checks when you're Rick Scott!
  • IA-Gov: This race has been depressing for a long while now, and the latest news is no different. A Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register shows GOPer Terry Branstad crushing Gov. Chet Culver 52-33. Just ugh.
  • ME-Gov: Greenberg Quinlan Rossner (D) for Libby Mitchell (9/22-24, likely voters, July in parens):
  • Libby Michell (D): 34 (32)
    Paul LePage (R): 38 (44)
    Eliot Cutler (I): 10 (8)
    Shawn Moody (I): 8 (5)
    Kevin Scott (I): 2 (2)
    Undecided: 7 (10)
    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Mitchell also says her internal shows LePage's favorability weakening from 33-19 to 38-36 over the same timespan.

  • AZ-01: CQ got ahold of a month-old internal poll for Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick by Lake Research Partners, which shows the race to be very tight. Kirkpatrick had a 43-39 lead over Republican Paul Gosar. But of course, we're talking about late August. Who knows what's changed since then.
  • CO-03: Nice catch by Colorado Pols. Check out Republican Scott Tipton trying to backpedal away from his earlier statements that he'd eliminate the Department of Education:
  • Tipton said his plan for that department is the same as his plan for the entire federal government, to cut it in half. He said he plans to do that without cutting government services....

    That is some seriously lulzy shit right there, my friends. Even better is the fact, as CO Pols points out, that Tipton already tried to back away from this plan ("slice the gov't in half") a few days ago, but he's already re-un-flip-pivot-flopping back to it. Man.

  • CT-05: Smaller, fun-size cat fud: Mark Greenberg, who lost in the GOP primary to Sam Caligiuri, showed up on Caligiuri's hometown to make an endorsement... of the Republican running in Rosa DeLauro's district. A Caliguri endorsement sounds unlikely.
  • FL-22: I'm not a big fan of Politifact for a variety of reasons, but they sink their teeth into a good one here. At a recent candidate forum, Allen West claimed, "If you look at the application for a security clearance, I have a clearance that even the president of the United States cannot obtain because of my background." This is obviously insane, points out Politifact, because security clearances exist because of a presidential executive order... which is signed by, uh, the president. The other possible way of viewing this (which is what West's campaign proudly says is their view) is as a birther-esque claim that grew out of right-wing email forwards. This "school of thought" holds that Obama's shaaady personal background means that he'd never have gotten security clearance by normal means (if he hadn't been elected). Yeah, okay.
  • MS-04: Remember when, a few weeks ago, Heath Shuler suggested that he might run for Speaker of the House? Well now Rep. Gene Taylor is the latest ConservaDem to take up residence in fantasy-land, saying that he'd prefer 78-year-old Ike Skelton for Speaker, rather than answer a question about whether he'd vote for Nancy Pelosi again. Taylor also refused to answer how he'd react if Republicans approached him about a party switch.
  • NV-03: In response to a claim by the Smart Media Group that the DCCC was cancelling a week-long buy on behalf of Rep. Dina Titus, the D-Trip announced that three panzer divisions were reconsolidating on the Eastern front the cancellation was actually a sign of strength. Later that same day, perhaps realizing that sounded like bullshit, the same Dem spokesman said that the party was still committed to a million-dollar ad buy.
  • PA-10: After an AP report cited an anonymous Dept. of Justice source on this story, the Scranton Times Tribune obtained an on-the-record statement from the DoJ confirming that the department has no record of having given approval for then-US Attorney Tom Marino to serve as a reference on a casino license application for his buddy Louis DeNaples. If you've been following this story, you know that DeNaples was a possibly-mobbed-up "businessman" who was under investigation by Marino's own office - and when Marino got busted for providing the reference, he resigned in disgrace, and then took a sinecure with DeNaples. Marino claimed back in the spring that he had received permission from the DoJ to give a reference for DeNaples, but this has clearly turned out to be bullshit. Dem Chris Carney has gotten a lot of mileage out of this so far.
  • While we're on the subject, Maine-based pollster Critical Insights tested this race for the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader. They found Marino ahead of Carney 40-36. But the n on this poll was extremely low - just 196 LVs.

  • PA-11: The Times Leader also polled the 11th CD. Again, with a very small sample (211 LVs), they found Republican Lou Barletta leading Rep. Paul Kanjorski by a 43-32 margin. The Kanjorski campaign blistered the poll, offering some slightly dumber lines of attack ("Makes you wonder if The Times Leader didn't cook the numbers") and some sharper ones (noting that the TL doesn't seem to be very adept at polling, given that last week they tested the Lt. Gov. race, even though Pennsylvanians don't elect the LG separately). They also questioned the partisan makeup of the sample, and its small size.
  • NRCC: The NRCC just made $3.2 million in expenditures on a ton of different races - too many to list here. It looks like it's mostly for paid media, as well as a bunch of polls in a number of districts. Be interesting to see if any see the light of day.
  • SSP TV (by James L.):

    • DE-Sen: Chris Coons' latest ad touts reform and fiscal conservatism
    • KY-Sen: Jack Conway's out with a great ad that personalizes Rand Paul's nagging hostility to federal anti-drug funding
    • FL-Gov: Alex Sink attacks chrome-domed creep Rick Scott for attacking her over the Florida state pension fund
    • CO-04: Dem Rep. Betsy Markey paints Cory Gardner as a career politician with his hand in the trough
    • FL-08: Dem Rep. Alan Grayson takes off the gloves... and straps on a set of brass knuckles. In his latest ad, he paints his Republican opponent as a radical religious fundamentalist, going so far as to call him "Taliban Dan Webster". In another ad, Grayson hits Webster for his Vietnam deferrals. Also worth mentioning is this ad, which came out two weeks ago but went unmentioned here, where Grayson resurrects his famous "briefcase" theme from last cycle.
    • HI-01: GOP Rep. Charles Djou responds to the DCCC's latest attack ad
    • IA-03: Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell unleashes a decent ad hitting Brad Zaun on "personal responsibility" hypocrisy
    • IL-14: Dem Rep. Bill Foster goes after GOP state Sen. Randy Hultgren for his company's  role in fueling the mortgage crisis (and profiting from it)
    • NY-13: Frosh Dem Rep. Mike McMahon's first ad touts his accomplishments and votes, including his vote against healthcare reform
    • OH-15: Dem Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy touts her votes, while, in another ad, smacks Steve Stivers over his support of a national sales tax.
    • OR-05: A six-pack of seniors form a chorus to sing Dem Rep. Kurt Schrader's praises, and wave their hickory walking sticks in Republican Scott Bruun's direction
    • PA-11: GOPer Lou Barletta responds to Paul Kanjorski's attacks
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/27 (Morning Edition)
    Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
    Print Friendly View Send As Email

    NV-3
    Since Titus was ahead in the last two independent polls, if anything, this would not be a sign of her weakness.

    Yeah, these tea leaves contradict everything we've heard in recent weeks......
    Public polling has Titus on top with slow and steady gains over time, and reports from atdleft and other information suggest Heck is getting hammered without an effective campaign from his end.

    Strange that the DCCC yanking money would cause friction on this one.

    But then, they're going to spend a mil on ads anyway?  You don't reverse a big spending decision over mere flak; maybe there was miscommunication in the first instance regarding the DCCC's plans in the district?

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    MS-04
    If you actually look up past votes for Speaker, you'd see that Taylor has voted against the Caucus' choice before. I'd say Taylor voting against Pelosi is far from being "fantasy-land", considering he's done it before, granted he was in the minority party.

    1995 - Present (instead of Gephardt)
    2001 - Murtha (instead of Gephardt)
    2003 - Murtha (instead of Pelosi)
    2005 - Murtha (instead of Pelosi)

    It's not that hard to see how Taylor could vote for Skelton.

    And even if he didn't directly say "hey if they approach me I won't switch", the next sentence kind of says it all:

    "What I would want is a Democratic nominee for Speaker that is much more in tune with what I believe," he said. "Quite frankly I haven't seen that the last couple years."

    Doesn't sound like a switcher to me.


    Others
    I could see Bright voting for someone other than Pelosi.

    Overall though I do not see the Blue Dogs banding together to vote for a candidate.

    If there's a reduced majority, at least a 5-6 seat Democratic majority, then I could see Bright, Taylor, and maybe Marshall banding together to support Skelton.

    Notice that Taylor nor Shuler ever mentioned any actual effort to oust Pelosi, both are simply unhappy with her as Speaker.

    If Pelosi wins minus a few Democratic votes, I doubt anything will happen to them.

    What will they do, strip Taylor of his committee assignments? I doubt there would be enough support in the caucus to do that.


    [ Parent ]
    Taylor's statements
    were probably motivated in part by what Politico is reporting this morning: Palazzo has moved from a 44 point deficit in December to a 4 point deficit now (45-41), and the NRCC is planning to invest in the race.

    Obviously, Taylor is still the strong favorite and the poll comes with the usual caveats of internals, but the fact that any poll would show Taylor under 50% is pretty shocking. He's certainly behaving like he knows he's in a race.

    20, GOP, NH-02


    [ Parent ]
    Where
    Where are you finding that article on Politico?

    I found this one mentioning that the NRCC is polling: http://www.politico.com/news/s...

    But nothing about results.


    [ Parent ]
    Morning Score
    It's kind of buried. Not an article, just a paragraph.

    20, GOP, NH-02

    [ Parent ]
    Here it is
    http://www.politico.com/mornin...

    Other interesting stuff too.  Denish tied, Patrick Murphy up 3 in partisan polls.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    I think there is a reasonable chance
    that Taylor will not be voting for anyone for Speaker in 2011, and rather Palazzo will be voting for Boehner.

    The fact that Taylor voted for Pelosi in 2007 and 2009 is more than enough justification for this heavily Republican district (not conservative Dem) to give him the boot.


    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)


    [ Parent ]
    lol, sure...
    I mean beating the Pelosi horse really worked for you guys in 2008, I'm sure that's the final nail in Gene Taylor's coffin.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Voted today!
    I hadn't realized that for overseas voters they first send a limited ballot with federal/statewide races and a "blank ballot" for local races where you fill in the races and candidates yourself. Then I guess later on if you want to change your choices, they send a normal ballot with all the races printed. Weird!

    At any rate, I voted for Chafee for governor and straight D otherwise, though I guess in theory I can change that if I get my normal ballot in time :P

    Might I be the first SSPer to vote in the 2010 general election?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    My first time in the general
    I was one of those Unlucky few who turned 18 after the 2008 election but before the 111th congress began its session (Jan 1)

    It sucks, but I'm excited to vote in CA and hopefully lead Brown to victory.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    FL-08: those attack ads are just over the top and make me wonder......
    Why?  I understand Grayson himself is over the top, but did he micromanage the admaking, too?  A campaign staff and advisors and media consultant should act as a check on this.

    The sad thing is that the "Taliban Dan" ad correctly uses a damning video clip of Webster talking, and the message in the ad is correct, too.  But the over-the-top Taliban crap, imagery and in the tagline, dilutes the effectiveness.

    The Vietnam draft avoidance, too, is a good hit if tied into a larger point about Webster's integriy, but it doesn't quite get to any such larger point.  Instead, it suggests Vietnam is a freestanding reason not to vote for Webster, and I don't think that's going to work almost 40 years after the war ended.

    But who knows, maybe the intended points still will get across and resonate enough to hurt Webster?  I hope so.  Grayson makes me cringe a little just as other Dem SSPers have said, but I want him reelected to make a helpful point about what kinds of members CAN get reelected after casting tough votes and talking tough words.  Republicans get away with this all the time, it seems they can say anything at all and get elected and reelected.

    Regarding the briefcase ad, it's a sound point Grayson makes, but the legislation he talks about is obscure to the average voter, and I don't know if it will stick with people.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    The Vietnam war add is just sleazy
    It hits Dan Webster for being a "draft dodger" without noting that he was in a college ROTC program and tried to enlist but was disqualified because of medical reasons.

    http://www.factcheck.org/2010/...

    At least the Taliban Dan ad is based on the actual words of Dan Webster, although it's over the top.

    If this were a cycle where the Democrats were less endangered, I would urge anyone who lives in Grayson's district to vote against him. And I'm begging Chris Bowers and the rest of the Daily Kos team to stop raising money for this guy. Raise it for Tom Perriello or someone who deserves it.  


    [ Parent ]
    I didn't know that about Webster's Vietnam history, that really does undermine...
    ...the ad in a way that could cause serious backlash.  That's the sort of thing I can imagine the local media focusing on regarding Grayson's ad, and the blowback from voters could be bad.

    This is so unfortunate because Grayson really could get reelected, he has the resources and the opponent to pull it off.  But crap like this is self-defeating.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    The one thing saving Grayson
    Webster has no money. The Politico story says he has only about 100K on hand.  

    [ Parent ]
    If I'm Webster, I'm relieved to see THOSE attack ads "against" me because...
    ...with ads like those, I don't even need my own ads!

    Or, "with enemies like these, who needs friends?"

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    If someone gave me a choice between Perriello and Grayson surviving, I'd take Perriello without a doubt. He's the type of strong Democrat we need.

    I've never been fond of Alan Grayson, he's always struck me as a real asshole, and it's unfortunate that so many on our side have conflated being strong with being an asshole.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, but this year, my attitude is he may be a d-bag
    But he's our d-bag.  

    [ Parent ]
    ugh
    If you have to speed up your legally required "I'm ___ and I approve this message," then your spot usually stinks.  Couldn't they at least get some good editing software so he doesn't sound all choppy?

    [ Parent ]
    Grayson
    Grayson was just playing to his base at Daily Kos with that one - it's a love letter to Kos with his book.  I suspect by running those sorts of ads he figures (probably correctly) that he'll be able to raise even more money.  Which I don't think he needs, btw, he's not going to win or lose because of that.  That ad's really over the top - Webster's a Baptist and so he just effectively called members of one of the largest denominations in the south 'Taliban'.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

    [ Parent ]
    Partially Agree
    I agree with you that the ad is over the top but when you have a political candidate on tape saying that a woman should be submissive to him because it is "said in the Bible" I think that freaks a lot of people out. He isn't calling out all Baptists by any means but I would be very curious to hear in what context Webster said that. It is a very damaging clip as that district is not a bible belt district where something like that you could get away with easier. Grayson doesn't need the extra money but it should be troubling to National Republicans that despite the target (I believe he is #2 on the Republican "wish list" only behind Harry Reid) he has on his back and Webster's high name recognition that Grayson isn't getting destroyed in whatever polls are out there.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Alan "Breitbart" Grayson
    If you are curious, here is what "Taliban Dan" said:

    "I have verses for my wife. Don't pick the ones that say, 'She should submit to me.' That's in the Bible, but pick the ones that you're supposed to do. So instead, 'Love your wife even as Christ loved the church and gave himself for it.'"

    He has produced the full video.  I think Grayson is a real asset to the GOP.  Forget just backfiring on him, this ad and "draft dodger" seems like a sure go-to for the press for a "desperate dems sling mud, avoid issues" narrative.  


    [ Parent ]
    Your nickname
    Is pretty dead on with that one. I had a feeling that while Webster is likely very culturally conservative that video must have had some editing to it as that is a pretty awful/dumb thing for a season politician to say.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    If that's the context
    then I am changing what I said before and would condemn Grayson for libelous character assassination.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Wow! Greyson ad is really a complete lie
    Here is the full unedited video:

    I mean come on! This kind of blatantly false campaign ad only hurts the attacker. Greyson edited the footage to completely change what Webster was saying.

    By doing stuff like this it only reinforces the image that "My Congressman is Nuts". Really stupid stuff off on Greyson's part.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Grayson
    I am not a fan of this Grayson ad as well but unfortunately ads like this on both sides of the aisle work. That is why they are run. Think of the abhorrent Swift Boat Vets for "Truth" ads that were run against Kerry or juxtaposing Max Cleland to Osama bin Laden. Totally bogus and false but they stuck really well. The ads get people talking so they get a lot of "free play". Now comparing your opponent to the Taliban is a stretch but hearing Webster say the things that he does in the ad is pretty damaging. Add in that this is close by where the Terri Schiavo incident was and I don't think those people are really interested in an "extreme" social conservative representing them. I just wish that there wasn't the Taliban reference. Grayson has proven that he is willing to say whatever it takes. He is without a doubt the GOP's #2 target this year (after Harry Reid) and the fact that he is in a swing district and that Webster has a high name ID and he isn't putting him away in this type of climate is very interesting. With Grayson there is little doubt where he stands on the issues. Wouldn't it be ironic if the GOP failed to get a majority by a handful of seats and one of their misses was Grayson? Add in if Sink wins and you figure that along with the increased Latino voters in his district Grayson's district and a bit of a redistricting effort he may safer in the future.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    If Grayson is the GOP's #2 target
    Why does Webster seem to have so little money?  

    [ Parent ]
    Good question
    I think that most of the money against him is via the third party route. It is definitely a wonder why Webster hasn't raised the money that he should be. I think the late primary certainly hurt his case as well and I am very curious to see how much money he is going to have on hand as of 9/30.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Not always
    There are TONS of examples of over the top attack ads that cost candidates elctions.

    Mark Green's 2001 anti-Bloomberg "Kill It" ad is a great example of this. The ad backfired so badly it probably cost him the election.

    Tim Bishop probably won his 1st election in 2002 because Rep Grucci ran radio ads accusing Bishop of falsifying rape statistics at the college. The attack was basesd on bogus claims and it cost Grucci re-election.

    I have a feeling the backlash from these ads will hurt Geyson more than help him.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Grayson is down in the polls
    and about to lose.  He doesn't have any dignity, so he has no shame in running an ad like this, and he has nothing to lose.

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

    [ Parent ]
    He was down 7 points
    but in a GOP internal, I believe. even if it were a neutral poll that's really not a sign of imminent defeat a month before the election.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I'm Charles Djou
    "Hey, is my wife filming an ad in this house, which may or may not be ours?  May I walk in an interrupt?

    Exactly!
    He seems like a nice guy, but he has that awkwardness about him that he's never really shed despite already having a successful campaign under his belt.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Almost as awkward?
    That Lou Barletta ad, which makes Luca Brasi's wedding speech sound like the guy in the FedEx ads by comparison.

    [ Parent ]
    I like the awkwardness
    I think it works to his benefit. It makes him seem like an honest uncorruptable guy. I think thats what the ads was going for.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    its the same sentiment
    I think Minnesotans have for Mark Dayton; a little awkward, not the best showman, but that just makes him a normal seeming guy.  (As normal as someone who sells paintings worth tens of thousands of dollars to help fund his campaign can seem, anyway.)

    [ Parent ]
    Selzer Iowa poll for DMRegister is brutal
    IA-Sen numbers released today: Grassley 61, Conlin 30.

    Grassley's tv ads have been very good and in heavy rotation.


    statewide offices in Iowa

    Like you tell in your last comments I worry too about the lower level offices in the ticket.

    I wish ask you about the Secretary of State M Mauro since I see a poll with -3% for him (I remember not the details of the pollster). What you think about this race?


    [ Parent ]
    I don't put much stock in that poll
    because it was commissioned by a Republican blog, but any reasonable person would have to be worried about the top of the ticket dragging down Mauro. He's only in his first term so doesn't have huge name recognition.

    The Republican candidate, Matt Schultz, is ignorant about Iowa election law and loves to throw around fraud allegations with no basis in fact.

    Last week a bunch of Republican county auditors endorsed Mauro. I hope word gets out about that. I don't know how much advertising Mauro will be able to do statewide. As of July, Mauro had $136,896.58 cash on hand, while Schultz had under $1,000 cash on hand.


    [ Parent ]
    Very interesting report

    You work the answer, thanks.

    I glad you tell this. And surely you are right. The worse trouble for M Mauro can be a low name recognition. I remember better numbers in the poll for IA-AG with stronger challenger like your links explain.

    I would like M Mauro can survive.


    [ Parent ]
    IA-03
    I wasn't wild about that Boswell ad, or about the ad the DCCC cut for Boswell, but they are a lot more professionally done than Zaun's ads. Zaun has to hope people just vote for a generic Republican and think as little about him as possible. Zaun has to get a boost from Culver and Conlin being so far down.

    Ugh, the coattails could be ugly. And I think Zaun's ad is actually pretty good......
    He introduces himself and that helps, he's smiling and talking coherently, and he has a simple message that sticks.  I think it works well.  "Professionally done" doesn't automatically mean more effective.

    But the Boswell and DCCC ads are good, I'm happy with them.

    I hope Boswell can survive, I agree that the coattails are a real risk.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I understand that Culver's going to have some negative coattails
    But I can't imagine that Grassley's coattails would be all that stupendous. I'm sure that there are plenty of voters who are used to voting for Grassley and then voting straight Democratic for the rest of the ticket.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    But it's synergy that's the problem......
    You have an incumbent Dem Gov at 33 and the Dem Senate candidate at 30, that combo potentially reveals more people likely to vote Republican straight ticket than polling in downballot races might reveal.  Maybe not, I'm an Iowa native and I know the heavy ticket-splitting quite well in Iowa.  But in waves Iowa goes all one way just like other states, that's what happened in 1994 and 2006 and 2008.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    when Branstad was re-elected in 1986
    Grassley won re-election by 30 points, but Democrats still held the state legislature and one or two U.S. House seats, plus offices like state treasurer, attorney general, etc. Even in 1994 Democrats held one of the two legislative chambers.

    [ Parent ]
    When Branstad was governor
    Iowans also elected a Democratic-controlled legislature and Democrats to several statewide offices at the same time. However, Branstad wasn't winning those elections by 20 points.

    [ Parent ]
    but he was running for re-election all but one time, right?
    I don't know what it's like in iowa now, but i figure lots of anger, mostly directed at dems and culver.  that anger is what will probably motivate people and result in a any possible coattails for the reps, not grassley's 20 point victory.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: Blumenthal lead cut to 5
    You may mistrust Rasmussen's toplines, but his trends are worth watching
    It's no secret that he's the most Republican-leaning of the independent pollsters, and the race probably is not quite this close, but the fact that Blumenthal's lead in Rasmussen polling has gotten smaller and smaller indicates that McMahon is not going away. This race is badly in need of non-Rasmussen polling, and I hope that PPP, Ipsos, or CNN/Time makes their way to Connecticut soon.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    This poll's internals actually are good for Blumenthal and bad for McMahon......
    Rassy has Blumenthal's favorability still at a sky-high 61-38, and Obama's job approval is a healthy 53-47.  Even on party trust on issues, Rassy gives Dems the edge in this poll on the economy; ethics; health care; and taxes(!).  Repubs get a 3-point edge, 41-38, on immigration.  And in the crosstabs, Blumenthal breaks even with indies and has only slightly more defections by Dems than he gains from Repubs.

    McMahon's own favorability is 56-43, which either is an outlier or shows that Dems haven't done enough on the air to attack her.

    The turnout model, which Ras publishes for most polls now, is 40D-31R-29I.  That compares to the 2006 exit poll with 38D-36I-26R.  That means the poll already takes into account the shift in turnout favoring the GOP.

    Also, I think the Governor's race favoring Dems ultimately helps Blumenthal, as it blunts any cross-ticket effect that is hurting Dems in Middle America.

    Ultimately, Blumenthal just needs to get on the air with good offense-defense ads to create the space that's there to be created.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    mcmahon's strength
    is a combination of $$$ (Everyone already knew that ofc) and ass-weak response ads from the campaign.  from the ads i've seen here, mcmahon comes off as personable, while Blumiere is a generic dem, with a bad retaliation.  the fact that her favs are so high (if they're to be believed) shows her ads are working to some extent, or his aren't.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    I think
    if Blumenthal continues to sleep this off, even if he unleashes a barrage of attack ads against McMahon detailing her questionable ethics at WWE, her favorables will be so high she survives. Just like how Scott Brown survived a barrage of negative ads from Coakley, DSCC, the unions, and other Democratic leaning 527's in the last two weeks of the election.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    she can still be weakened and blumiere's still favored, but if he doesn't start soon it will be too late, though he might still eke out a narrow win.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    What's with the "Blumiere"? n/t


    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    A 5 point lead with less than 5% undecided
    is not the worst position in the world to be.

    [ Parent ]
    It is when Blumenthal...
    Is pulling a Coakley and McMahon has $10M+ to spend over the final five weeks.  

    [ Parent ]
    Coakley
    I realize some people here believe that history began with the Coakley-Brown race, but the situations are not comparable.  This is not a special election, Blumenthal's fav/unfav are higher than Coakley's, and Blumenthal's been taking her challenge more seriously than Coakley did with Brown.

    [ Parent ]
    In this post-Coakley world...
    Rest assured that ANY Democrat who loses an election after having been ahead in ANY poll at ANY point in the campaign will have "pulled a Coakley" in someone's eyes.  And some of the ones who win will still be branded as such.

    [ Parent ]
    People who invoke Coakley

    - even around here- tend to have a painfully superficial and denialist understanding of what happened here in January.

    "A Coakley" is probably what is going on with Joe Manchin.  His support is declining in WV pollings and not recovering despite not having the flaws and making the mistakes Coakley supposedly did.

    Because it's really all about the previous incumbent and a post-mortem backlash against way he held the office far too long, taken out against the nominee from his party who promises to carry on in the same way.


    [ Parent ]
    That was clearly part of it
    But the fact she did basically nothing for an entire month surely has to be important too, doesn't it? I don't think anybody can argue Manchin is doing that.

    [ Parent ]
    So you're saying Coakley lost due to anti-Kennedy voter sentiment???......
    That doesn't make any sense.  I've never read that anywhere.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    It is the whole "people's seat" thing
    I agree it was an issue but one of many and not the most important.

    [ Parent ]
    That wasn't about Kennedy, it was about the Democratic Party's sense of entitlement and taking voters for granted......
    That was a slap at our party, and it was a great line by Brown.

    But it's purely notional that it helped him move votes, that he wouldn't have won 52-47 anyway.
    e
    It certainly DOES explain WHY Coakley lost, because SHE DID take victory for granted as the Democratic nominee.  In that sense Brown's line perfectly explained WHY she was losing, but it was not a cause.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Eh, I dunno about that
    Let's face it - Martha Coakley ran a dreadful campaign. She was awful. Scott Brown ran an energized, center-right campaign, and, unlike Coakley, he had the (necessary?) ability to go out and shake a voter's hand. Coakley had the warmth and charisma of an ice cube.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    In the part of Massachusetts I live in, there was no Kennedy fatigue
    Ted remains loved here even after his death, and the only resentment toward his legacy in the Senate is from people that never liked him while he was alive. If Coakley was Kennedy 2.0, she would have won. She lost because she ran an awful, complacent campaign, she had a strong opponent, and the environment was terrible.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Worth repeating
    "She lost because she ran an awful, complacent campaign, she had a strong opponent, and the environment was terrible."

    [ Parent ]
    FYI, a Quinnipiac poll is set for release tomorrow


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Whatever it shows
    I think Rasmussen is more reliable. I know, I know...

    [ Parent ]
    Quinnipiac
    Polled it two weaks ago (Blumenthal +6) and will have another poll out this week, I think tomorrow.  

    [ Parent ]
    So I go away for a week
    And return to find y'all have let races in WV, NY and CT get closer. I'm very disappointed. More seriously I'm increasingly exasperated by Democratic apathy. I get that people are hurting but schadenfreude is looking like an increasingly attractive result right now.

    I think Democratic apathy will be less a problem than it currently appears......
    No question the GOP will have a relative turnout edge, and a clear one compared to 2006, but I think in the end enough Democrats will show up in enough states that, with some exceptions, we won't be able to blame bad results on turnout.  We have lost indies, and that hurts us far more than a turnout gap.

    But I'm actually more optimistic about holding the House than I've been in months, and I only hope I'm not fooling myself now.  Not that I think we're likely to hold it, but I've moved the odds of a GOP takeover down from 60-40 to something barely better than 50-50.  Our candidates and campaigns are aggressive, they're going hard negative, they're using attack material that I can see resonating viscerally with voters.  There are a few tea leaves this stuff is working, like a SSPer's report here that the stuff is sticking in MA-10, and polling evidence that Titus is recovering and in the driver's seat now in NV-03.

    When I do my own informal race-by-race analysis, which I didn't do at all before Labor Day, I find myself stuck once I get close to 40 GOP pickups.  After that, there are at least a dozen races that look like a total crapshoot to me.  And of course that's before I consider 4 GOP-held seast I'm currently confident we'll take, plus a few more that I think could offer a pleasant surprise or two for us.

    In Senate races, as scary as some races are getting, I ultimately think Blumenthal will survive, and Gillibrand I suspect ends up winning comfortably (and Cuomo in a blowout after all, I believe).  

    I'm much more worried about Manchin, but as long as he campaigns competently he will be no worse than a tossup heading into election day, because he's just too personally popular to fall any further than that.  If I had to bet my life savings on this race, I'd bet on Manchin pulling it out.

    But then I'm feeling worse right now about IL, as I fear Quinn's negative coattails will drag down Alexi.  So for now I have that leaning against us, and I have us losing a net 7, which includes no pickups.  I really think it could be as good as minus-5 for us, if Alexi can survive on Obama's home-state strength and Kirk's own problems and if we can pick up a GOP-held seat somehow, KY being most promising.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Don't forget CO
    I really think that Bennet can win. It'll be tough, and Buck is probably the narrow favorite, but Bennet is close enough, and registered voters polls have him narrowly up or tied. And at least he has Hickenlooper leading the ticket. That may not save him, but it won't hurt him, unlike Quinn vis-a-vis Giannoulias.  

    [ Parent ]
    I give Bennet no worse a shot than Conway, and maybe a little better......
    I agree on CO.  I'm not writing it off at all.

    But if I have to do bottom-line macro predictions in line with my view of cold reality, I have to write off both of them.

    I can see us losing as few as 4 seats......I really can.  I can see a scenario where nominee selection ends up biting the GOP's ass in a big way, so that we win NV, CO, DE, KY, CT, and even AK because of it.  There are lots of swing voters who will always choose the safety of establishementarians over scary calls for revolution, and it's plausuble the GOP wave stopped cold by that counter-force.

    But the state of the races right now, and my best guess about where they are headed, leave me having to surrender CO and KY and calling a net loss of 7.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I differ somewhat on CO and CT
    The primary in DE certainly cost us a seat, the primary in NV turned a lean R race into a lean D race, although Reid may have beaten Lowden or Tark and Angle may yet stumble into the Senate. The primaries in KY and AK certainly put both races neadlessly in play. But I think, in the long run, the GOP got the better candidates in Colorado and Connecticut. Jane Norton, though I liked her better than Buck, didn't inspire anyone and seemed like she had a glass jaw. The gubernatorial disaster would have made it really hard for Norton to turn out the base, something Buck, for all his warts, won't have trouble doing.

    Simmons was a better candidate on paper than McMahon, but he was a pretty lousy fundraiser for such an expensive state, and was way down to Blumenthal in the polls at the time of the primary. It's been McMahon's money that's made this a race, and while she's not the best fit for the state, she's doing her darndest to spend her way into the Senate.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    Buck hasn't run a very good campaign though
    He relied on tea-party support to get him past the primaries and the only reason he's in contention now is because this is a bad year for Democrats.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    he's also running away from the tea party
    at least in terms of undoing the dept of education and such.  will this depress their support, as he's turncoating already, or are they smart/angry enough to vote republican anyway?

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    I actually agree on Buck/Norton
    I think Norton would have been the weaker candidate for the Republicans. Buck is no great shakes, but he isn't bad either. Norton was a terrible speaker, an awkward campaigner, and unpopular with the GOP base AND with the general public.

    [ Parent ]
    Manchin was an idiot
    For pushing for a race this year.

    [ Parent ]
    second
    n/t

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Most West Virginians wanted a special election
    They did not want a caretaker for two years.  

    [ Parent ]
    That is not the reason
    There is actually going to be one.

    [ Parent ]
    Regardless
    West Virginians wanted a special election.  

    [ Parent ]
    I don't know what that
    Has to do with what Manchin wanted which is the only thing that mattered.

    [ Parent ]
    There
    are not 5 people in WV that would have cared if the caretaker had served until 2012.

    Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

    [ Parent ]
    That's bull
    And you know it. It's hilarious how fast you guys flip flop around here.  

    [ Parent ]
    The first legal call
    Was no special election and nobody blinked. This would not be happening if Manchin hadn't wanted it.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    But Manchin's ambition got the better of him.

    [ Parent ]
    That's not true
    There was complaining. Stop with the revisionist history. Manchin made the decision for several reasons: There was support for a special election, the business community wanted Manchin in place, shutting the GOP up, scaring Capito out of the race, taking advantage of Manchin's approvals (who knows he might not be that liked after two more years as Gov). Nobody but nobody saw Raese winning.

    And yes of course, Manchin saw it as convenient for him. What no one counted on was WV being so against Obama that they would vote against Manchin despite his popularity.


    [ Parent ]
    Revisionist history?
    Please. I'm amazed you think the will of the people is at all relevant.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm referring to posters (such as you) on this website
    when I made the remark.  

    [ Parent ]
    I know who you were referring to
    It is nonsense.

    [ Parent ]
    The will of the people of WV
    was a special election. I've said all I have to say about this.  

    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough
    I think both our positions are clear.

    [ Parent ]
    Manchin's popularity
    How do you think he got a 70% approval rating? Because he gives West Virginians what they want. He would've been blasted for the two years straight if he had blown off a special election. No one was complaining about it a month ago because they figured it was a slam dunk. Now the polls are getting close and here comes the second guessing.

    [ Parent ]
    Everybody said it was dangerous


    [ Parent ]
    Everybody?
    National dems were for it. Local dems were for it. The WV Chamber of Commerce and the Unions wanted Manchin to appoint himself for christ's sake! The were several local polls showing major support for a special election (try reading a WV newspaper sometime).  

    [ Parent ]
    Everybody is an exaggeration, yes
    But in most cases people were clear it was not without risk, myself included.

    http://www.swingstateproject.c...


    [ Parent ]
    You can put me in the minority camp here, I think this was the smart move by Manchin......
    Yes there's a real risk of losing the seat, but people here underestimate the risk of losing it in 2012, anyway.  Obama on the ballot is at best a non-factor in WV, but very plausibly a drag.  And a 70% job approval rating is awfully hard to maintain long-term, a lot of Democratic Governors are seeing their job approvals tank after doing nothing wrong.  Even further, a long campaign for the seat by Manchin leaves him more exposed to screwing up or having extraneous factors hurt him than a short campaign that he's got now.

    If you're in the driver's seat, you want to run out the clock and get the win.  Manchin is in the driver's seat, and yes he still could lose, but an open seat likely would be no less vulnerable 2 years from now.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    And, again
    It doesn't matter what newspaper I read. The law was there for him had he wanted to wait and people would have understood that.

    [ Parent ]
    As I just commented above, I think you and others are understating the risk...
    ...in 2012.

    There's a lot to be said for striking while the iron's hot.

    John Lynch, too, had a 70% job approval, and won his last reelection with about that much of the vote.  He's in much more of a dogfight now.

    Manchin might not have a 70% job approval a couple years from now, Obama could be a drag on the ticket, and a long campaign for the seat could expose him more than a short one now.

    I think this was the right move.

    And I think we all need to understand that what is really hurting us is less the current environment than the fact WV is changing and aligning its voting behavior increasingly with its conservative political mindset.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I see and saw
    The risk in either. But since I expect Obama will be in a better position two years from now, IMO this decision was riskier.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama lost WV by 13 points in 2008
    Even in a better position, it's still likely that Obama will lose WV by at least 10 points.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    His approval rating is more important now
    Besides, that is surmountable in terms of ticket splitting in an open race.

    [ Parent ]
    His approval rating in WV won't necessarily be any better......
    There's not uniform swing.  WV was as bad for Obama as it was for Kerry, and in fact absolute voter turnout was down in 2008 compared to 2004.

    Obama in 2008 had the benefit of being just the Democratic nominee for President at a time that Dubya was universally despised.  In 2012 he's the President himself, and in WV that hurts him more than his condition in 2008.

    And there's really not a lot Obama can do to endear himself to West Virginians.  They're always going to be suspicious of Democrats in the age of environmentalism and "new" energy.  Culturally Obama is not their cup of tea.  Yes an improved national economy helps Obama everywhere a little, but I doubt that offsets the reasons West Virginians will find to dislike him.

    I don't think the risk now is clearly any bigger than in 2012 for Manchin.  I think there are offsetting factors that ultimately make it debateable at best.  That being the case, the fact is Manchin badly wants this Senate seat, so just going ahead now makes sense.

    It's a myth that the alternative timing was predictably better......it's not.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Last para
    It depends on your individual POV. And you said yourself you were in the minority. Anyway, we could well be wrong but there is no way of proving it now.

    [ Parent ]
    No way
    The right-wing noise machine would have jumped and screamed for a while.  But like their call for an independent prosecutor to investigate Obama's job offer to Sestak, it would have faded away.

    [ Parent ]
    Good news for MN-Gov's race.
    Star Tribune Poll has Dayton up by 9 among likely voters.

    lazio to end campaign so says
    taegan goddard http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    Just how corrupt/inept/dysfunctional is the NY judiciary if a chunk of it is filled with political candidates payed off to leave the line?

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


    It's an election law loophole
    Rick Lazio will not be a judge. He will get the Conservative Party nomination to run for judge in some D+25 district where he'll have zero shot at winning.

    But you are right. NY should change the law and create a less dishonest way to get off the ballot. But then again if the NYS legislature functioned in any sort of rational or reasonable way we would'nt be talking of the potential of Governor Carl Paladino.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Excellent
    three panzer divisions were reconsolidating on the Eastern front

    Why I read this site. Hilarious.

    24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


    DE-Sen: Rassy polls Castle as write-in, and...
    ...Coons wins 49-40-5.  That's Castle, not O'Donnell, with 5.  :-P

    I'm not surprised by Coons in the high 40s or that Castle is in single-digits.  O'Donnell at 40 seems a bit high, but she got 35% against Biden in '08 and polled at 42 by Rasmussen last week, so 40 now might be about right.

    Rassy has Coons at 57-36 favorability, and O'Donnell deep underwater at 39-56.  Obama job approval is 52-46, the Dem Governor's job approval at 60-34.

    In a nutshell, nothing to see here, move on.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    5%?
    Did they tell the sample that if they brought a pencil to the polls, they'd be arrested?  No way he'd get that low.

    In any event, I don't think he'll run.  But this poll will have nothing to do with it.


    [ Parent ]
    I don't know why you're so shocked
    Write-in campaigns are really difficult, and especially with so little time to put together an effective information campaign (and especially with no support from a political party).

    More to the point, I have a sneaking suspicion that any polling Castle is doing is showing the same thing.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Agree, I, too, bet Castle's topline is in the same ballpark. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Murkowski's numbers?
    Same situation, 27%

    [ Parent ]
    Of course
    Murkowski had declared by that point and Castle has not.

    [ Parent ]
    No, NOT the same situation......
    Coons is a strong Democrat, an A-list recruit, in a blue state.

    McAdams was a Plan C recruit in a red state.

    And I doubt the 27% would hold for Murkowski into election day.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I agree with this
    What we're seeing in Delaware is Coons and O'Donnell consolidating their bases. Apparently the Delaware GOP is pretty big on unity, because I would have expected Castle to take more support from O'Donnell than he does.

    In Alaska, Democrats don't know much about McAdams so they haven't rallied around him as their guy yet. Likewise, Miller has apparantly not done well as well as O'Donnell at consolidating Republicans, leaving the door open for Murkowski to get votes from both parties.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    Murkowski is an incumbent
    For all this talk about how Castle is like an incumbent, he's still not the incumbent senator from Delaware, Murkowski is the incumbent senator from Alaska and that in itself will make some difference.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    i disagree
    castle has YEARS more experience than Murkowski, and was their only house member.  in small states, being a house member can be BETTER than being a senator because you don't have to compete with the other person for attention in your chamber.  your their only representation in the chamber.  

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    He represents the whole state.  Just like a senator.

    [ Parent ]
    My sentiments exactly
    n/t

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    Except he'd be trying to get a different job
    Which is the point I'm trying to make, there's a difference between an incumbent seeking to keep the job they had as a write-in and someone trying to be elected to the position for the first time as a write-in (no matter how long they might have served in a different position).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    I just realized.
    I don't know off the top of my head who the other Delaware senator is.

    Well, I don't live in Delaware.  But I thought I would've heard his name by now. :-)


    [ Parent ]
    Yes I think he'd get that low. I don't see why people think Castle would do any better......
    You lose a primary, you've lost your validation with large numbers of voters across the board.  Your name isn't printed on the ballot, you lose some percentage from that alone from people having to write in your name manually.

    Castle can't win the one-half of Republicans he got in the primary because a substantial minority of them will accept O'Donnell as their nominee, and another share who dislike her will still reject him as a sore loser.

    That Castle can't actually WIN as a write-in further depresses his support; a vote for him is a vote thrown away.  Coons is a perfectly acceptable alternative, no one outside the Republican base is offended by him, so Coons is going to hold all the swing voters who would have picked Castle in a 2-way vs. Coons.

    Some people here have an inflated notion of Castle's organic support.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    It's not that so much
    Castle is doing it to prevent O'Donnell from winning, plain and simple.  I doubt he cares what percentage he gets so long as that end is accomplished.

    I suspect Castle wasn't look forward to six years of doing the Capitol Hill-to-Wilmington run several times a week anyway.  But he's not going to let one of those Machiavellian-nihilistic bipolar/OCD-ish conservative activists get into positions of power if he can help it after all the abuse he took from from her.

    As a respectable politician you can't get up on a podium and explain what you're doing that way, though.  So Castle is pretending to campaign to win the office.  I think Murkowski thinks she has a shot at victory in the General and she does care passionately about the outcome on Nov. 2.  I don't think Castle has any illusions there.


    [ Parent ]
    On this evidence
    He would be more likely to help O'Donnell.

    [ Parent ]
    Disagree, I think Castle is "on tilt" if he runs
    If Castle's primary aim is O'Donnell's defeat, clearly the smart move is to stay out of the race and let Coons do it.

    Castle choosing to run only makes sense if his primary aim is to end his political career as a Senator (or a "winner"), OR if he is so enraged at O'Donnell that he's not thinking clearly.


    [ Parent ]
    Wow
    I believe it because they polled Murkowski as a write-in last week and got a pretty reasonable result, so there's not a flaw in the methodology of polling a write-in campaign. Looks like the two nominees have consolidated their bases enough here that a Castle write in wouldn't be much more successful than O'Donnell's write-in in 2006.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    They don't mention his name in the poll
    and how many people in Delaware even know that he is running.

    [ Parent ]
    Except he's not running, he's just thinking about it, and I bet he won't. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Rothenberg
    on the SUSA Kentucky polls.  Good news that his impression is that the first poll (Paul up 15) was "way off."  When that poll came out, even the Paul camp was like, "Err, we like that poll but, umm, seriously..."

    http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    i think you mean
    "umm, srrrssssllyyyyyyy???//?"

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    PA-10: Encouraging Poll
    Carney internal has Carney up 46-38.

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Building here on my reply above to conspiracy, this is one more reason I'm more hopeful than before......
    The fact that so many Dem internals are getting released the past few weeks distinguishes this election from what I remember of 2006 and 2008, when Dem-released internals were met with consistent silence from Team Red.  I don't remember Republicans releasing many internals EVER in those past couple cycles.

    I suspect this isn't all smoke and mirrors, that we really are close to 50-50 in our chances of still holding the House, and that a lot of these seats really are VERY winnable still.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I think you're right
    It may be the Dems money advantage is finally starting to pay some dividends, plus the flawed candidates the GOP has been nominating (see the Herseth Sandlin post below).  

    [ Parent ]
    I sorta agree on the House
    Trouble is the Senate seems to be going in the other direction.

    [ Parent ]
    SD-AL: Chris Cillizza tweets that Herseth-Sandlin up 13 in own internal......
    Unfortunately no link to the poll or a story on it, just the tweet itself.

    Another tea leaf that we might be recovering just enough......

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    The democratic congressional recovery is real
    The pollster.com regression average on the generic ballot is down to a 45.2 to 43.6 lead for the GOP, the lowest advantage they've had in months.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    And another: FL-24: Hotline Jeremy tweets Kosmas up 45-43 on Sandy Adams.....
    If THIS one is right, that would mean Kosmas has rallied, her ads have worked, and we're getting into position to retain the House for real.

    But that's a big "if" on the poll being right.  You just never know with these released internals.

    But it's one more example of Team Blue releasing private numbers when I don't think that happened so much with a defending party in previous waves.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Probably still down in reality
    What was her last internal?

    [ Parent ]
    I don't remember a Kosmas internal ever before being released. Adams released...
    ...a POS poll earlier this month that showed Adams up big, 49-37.

    I have seen online a Kosmas attack ad against Adams, and the ad was good, like so many of the attack ads our incumbents have aired so far.

    I'm hopeful that the attacks are working, and maybe Kosmas is rising from the dead.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I see
    Then I don't think we can determine much about her ad strategy working just yet. Taken together I'd say Adams is up by a few points at least.

    [ Parent ]
    My view, hopefully not merely wishful thinking, is that...
    ...Kosmas' internals before always were bad, and dumb to release, and these are her best internals in a very long time and perhaps EVER against Adams.

    I tell ya, find the Kosmas ad(s) and watch, our incumbents are waging good attacks with issues and narratives that reach voters in the gut.  I've been impressed, our campaigns have been better than I expected they'd be.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Not surprised myself
    I said so for like forever this would happen. Still, internal rule still says she is down. But still in the hunt.

    [ Parent ]
    Kosmas really lucked out having Adams as the GOP nominee
    if they nominated a sane person she would be down.

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

    [ Parent ]
    the irony of this being that Adams' main primary opponent
    was Karen Diebel...

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    SHS
    As far as SHS I think that the very damaging revelations about her opponents driving record were a crushing blow to her. Normally that wouldn't be a big deal but given that SHS won her seat because her predecessor was charged with manslaughter based on a hit-and-run incident that has a lot of traction. If the GOP can't beat SHS their path to 40 is getting smaller and smaller as they need to win a lot of those solid red districts to really get anything north of 40.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Sure, but that's how we have to win ALL these races, one at a time, based on...
    ...peculiarities of the Republican candidate.

    The GOP has handed us plenty to attack, with weak nominees who go out on a limb in their policy stances and also in some cases have personal baggage to exploit.

    In SHS' case, it's Noem's driving record as a signal of questionable personal character.

    It's something else in some other GOP challenger's case in another race.

    But there's plenty material in total against enough candidates to pull this out with great campaigns, which I get the impression our incumbents really are waging.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Adler ahead 38-30
    Higher than probable support for "tea party" candidate, and a lot of undecided:

    http://www.nbc40.net/news/14774/


    Believable
    It's Zogby, but I think Adler by 8 is pretty accurate. The low numbers for both candidates means this would be a probable GOP pickup if they had gotten someone better than Runyan to run (seriously, there wasn't a reasonably popular state legislature or a telegenic rich dude available?)

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    GOP
    There are a couple in the "shore" area of the district, but they didn't want to leave the legislature.  Runyan's known from his days with the Eagles.  I'm not sure anyone else would be polling any differently.

    [ Parent ]
    Runyun
    Are you saying that the hairiest man in the NFL is not telegenic? I am personally a Cowboys fan so I am happy to see Runyun lose here.


    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

    [ Parent ]
    Two new polls
    ARG in NH-Sen has Ayotte up 46-32 and over in PN IPO has PN-Sen, Toomy up 46-39 and in PN-Gov Corbett up 46-37.

    I remember ARG being sucky in 2008 during the primaries.  I think Ayotte's up, but not by this much.  PN sounds about right, I suppose.

    http://americanresearchgroup.c...
    http://www.muhlenberg.edu/pdf/...

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22


    PA Poll
    More Republicans than Democrats in a state with a 1 million Dem voter registration edge.  And only 9% independents in the sample.  Possible, but doubtful.

    [ Parent ]
    Very few indies in PA
    My model has an equal number of Dem and Rep likely voters.

    [ Parent ]
    Was 19% in '06
    According to this exit poll:

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...


    [ Parent ]
    Sure
    There will be more than 9% but that just means more Toomey voters.

    [ Parent ]
    Not necessarily
    The poll has the two splitting the independent vote.

    [ Parent ]
    That means a lot less than people think
    It's entirely possible that a number of conservative Independents were misidentified as Republicans. It's entirely possible that this sample has too many Republicans but is balanced out by an Independent sample that is too Democratic.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    I'm becoming less and less
    Trusting of many of these crosstabs across all polling. Unless they are ridiculously out of whack.

    [ Parent ]
    Turnout models are relevant, crosstabs are unreliable. But even with turnout models...
    ...tweaking the model using the provided crosstabs doesn't necessarily change the toplines much.  Of course, the fact that crosstabs are unreliable undermines applying those crosstabs to a tweaked turnout model, so even that isn't necessarily reliable!

    I agree that we're not going to see more Republicans than Democrats voting in a state where half the voters are registered as Democrats and card-carrying Republicans are in the ballpark of one-third of the total.

    But the topline sure looks the same as all the other polls that have come out recently.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, isn't ARG a notoriously horrible pollster?


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Pirates in every sense


    [ Parent ]
    Encouraging from Kos
    "RT @markos: Got NM results--3 CDs and Gov race. 1st impression: House Dems doing much better than I feared, and far better than Denish."

    Maybe Teague can really win
    That would be a surprise given that he was originally thought to be one of the most vulnerable Dems.

    [ Parent ]
    Not too worried about NM delegation
    Lujan is safe, Heinrich has been up in every non SUSA poll, Teague has been up and down.  

    [ Parent ]
    Me neither
    Teague's resilience is a welcome surprise. But we should wait for the actual numbers.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm going to take a wild guess:
    NM-01: Heinrich 47, Barela 40
    NM-02: Pearce 47, Teague 46
    NM-03: Lujan 46, Mullins 35

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    I reckon Teague is up
    Would jibe with him doing "far better" than Denish with Martinez probably up high single digits.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, I bet the numbers are better than DGM speculates, because DGM's numbers are not...
    ..."far better" than what I'd expect.

    It's been CW that Teague is running close with Pearce, this isn't one that's been getting away from us.

    And most people seem to think Heinrich still leads narrowly.

    So "far better" than an informed observer "fears" would be, in my best guess, Heinrich up 10 or more, and Teague up very narrowly.  And of course Lujan cruising.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Well, to be fair, it could be my sense of caution...
    Keeping my numbers low. If I'm wrong, then all the better!

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    It depends entirely on what Kos
    Expected. Seen as though their assumption over there is all the Blue Dogs will lose then I guess he though Teague was toast.

    [ Parent ]
    Looks like I was pretty much right for Heinrich
    Denish leads by 1 in the district, which probably means she's behind by at least 2-3 in the statewide poll:

    http://www.dailykos.com/pollin...

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    There's the alternative possibility
    That Denish is doing worse than we think.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    well
    He didn't just say "far better than Denish", he said "much better than I feared".  "Much better" would suggest something positive.

    [ Parent ]
    BTW
    I know this has been said before, but it's so ridiculous that we have to argue semantics about a tweet...just give us the numbers, dude!

    [ Parent ]
    The practice is both irritating
    And very clever all at the same time.

    [ Parent ]
    NM Thoughts
    As some of you may know I am a native New Mexican though I now call VA home. Grew up in Teague's district so I never thought that I would ever see a Democratic Representative. I was very skeptical that Teague could hang on but now I do see this as an even money chance after having talked with friends/family and read local media back home. Pearce has rubbed enough people the wrong way with his failed Senate run that they are seeing themselves as a "stepping stone". His very close and unbreakable support of President Bush has hurt him more than you would think. Teague has done a very nice job in going back to the district and he has made himself very visible which in a very geographically stretching district is tough. He has been to Las Cruces countless times more then what anyone ever remembers from Pearce. He is also not a divisive person that Pearce and presents himself as a problem solver. There are a few Republicans that I know that are planning on voting for Teague in part because they don't like Pearce/Bush and because Teague voted "no" to Health Care Reform. The biggest baggage that Teague has right now is that his former Companies dropped a lot of employees Health Care and I can easily see an attack ad on this.

    Lujan is very safe and could potentially be a target for a future leadership position in the House. Fits the profile of young and from a safe district. Heinrich I think should be safe as well as NM-01 has trended blue a lot more lately. While he did win by a solid margin in 2008 he beat a very competent opponent in Darren White. Keeping Heinrich must be a priority to keep the House as he is also a fairly reliable Dem vote on most issues. Given his age too once Jeff Bingaman decides to retire (possibly 2012) I think you will see a lot of NM Dems promoting the idea of Senator Martin Heinrich especially if Lujan feels like he can get a House Leadership position.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


    [ Parent ]
    Rass's generic 46-40
    Closest in a month.  Highest Dem number in a year.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


    Bizarre
    Now he starts showing some of the best numbers across the board?

    [ Parent ]
    How Bizarre!
    Hey, baby, how bizarre, how bizarre!

    I hope I'm not the only one who remembers that song.


    [ Parent ]
    How Bizarre!
    Hey, baby, how bizarre, how bizarre!

    I hope I'm not the only one who remembers that song.


    [ Parent ]
    Oooh baby, oooh baby, it's makin' me crazy, it's makin' me crazy
    Every time I look around, it's in my face!

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah!
    I have no idea what that song was about! Yes!

    [ Parent ]
    NH-Gov
    ARG strikes again! Lynch up 42-40.  

    Rasmussen had the same spread
    Probably just a post-primary bounce but worth watching.

    [ Parent ]
    the thing that scares me...
    Is the race feels like the same thing that happened in 2004 with Benson.  He was fairly popular, and just couldn't hold on.  It was one of the biggest surprises I remember six years ago:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.c...


    [ Parent ]
    Lynch's support
    always seemed fairly soft to me when I lived in NH.  It's not like people were wild about the dude; it was just that he was kind of inoffensive and very careful about never stepping on anyone's toes.  Candidates like that seem to be having a lot of trouble this year, so I'd believe Lynch was having problems.

    I actually wouldn't be totally shocked to see Hodes win (that guy is a great politician, and campaigns really hard) even as Lynch runs into trouble.

    From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.


    [ Parent ]
    Politifact
    Why are you not a fan? And is there another, similar site that you find more reliable or unbiased?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  



    Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

    Primary Sponsor

    You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

    Menu

    Make a New Account

    Username:

    Password:



    Forget your username or password?


    About the Site

    SSP Resources

    Blogroll

    Powered by: SoapBlox