| The first round of election occurs Oct. 2; however, as both LSU and Southern University play at home that day (a Saturday), more voters are expected to turnout during the early voting period, which ends today, than usual.
Turnout so far has been very light. According to the Secretary of State's Office and reported by The Advocate, only 50,540 of the state's 2.92 million registered voters have turned out to vote as of Thursday. Election forecasters expect turnout to hover around 20% of registered voters.
Due to the number of candidates, the race will certainly head to a runoff. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, a Republican from Baton Rouge, will almost surely be the top vote getter.
Thus, next week's election will determine who will face him for the seat. A poll conducted Aug. 15-16 for WWL-TV of New Orleans shows that country music singer and perennial Republican candidate Sammy Kershaw in second.
The poll gave 20% to Jay Dardenne (R), 15% to Rep. Sammy Kershaw (R), 8% to St. Tammany Parrish President Kevin Davis (R), 4% to state Republican Party Chairman Roger Villere (R) and 2% to each of the other remaining candidates.
Notably in the poll, no Democrat tops 2%. That is because up to recently, the Democrats in the race had very little name recognition. The Democrats in the race are State Sen. Butch Gautreaux, New Orleans lawyer Caroline Fayard and former Caddo Parish Police Juror Jim Crowley.
Since then, a couple of news developments seem to have changed this. First off, former President Bill Clinton endorsed and hosted a fundraiser for Caroline Fayard, a former congressional page and intern in the Clinton White House.
Additionally, campaign finance reports were released from the latest period, showing Ms. Fayard raised more money than all other candidates. Those reports do not include money raised during the New York fundraiser with Mr. Clinton.
Finally, Ms. Fayard has gotten on the airways with television buys in New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Shreveport.
The goal of this campaign is to finish second to Mr. Dardenne.
Mr. Dardenne will almost surely win. He has a decent record, statewide name recognition and comes off as experienced and friendly. He is the closest thing to a generic Republican I can think of.
He is probably slightly to the left of the state Republican party but has the type of ideology that would be typical of establishment Republicans across the U.S.
This race for second place does, however, carry some significance.
Rumors around the state suggest that the party is grooming her to run against Gov. Jindal in 2011. Right now, there are no viable democrats up to the job, and a strong second place showing by Ms. Fayard would certainly help.
Most likely, Ms. Fayard would not win against Mr. Dardenne or Mr. Jindal, but at age 32, she could be a viable candidate for future higher office.
Please, if you would, support Caroline Fayard for Lt. Gov. of Louisiana, and if you are a registered voter in Louisiana, please vote for Caroline next Saturday.
(Just to be clear, I am in no way connected to the state Democratic Party or the campaign of Caroline Fayard) |
