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House Cattle Call (September 2010)

by: DavidNYC

Sat Sep 25, 2010 at 2:20 PM EDT


It's high time we do a House Cattle Call, seeing as we haven't done one all cycle.

In case you haven't done one of these before, rank House seats in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State's House race ratings. Have fun!  
DavidNYC :: House Cattle Call (September 2010)
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House Cattle Call (September 2010) | 39 comments
mine (top 20 likely losses)
1. TN-06
2. LA-03
3. AR-02
4. HI-01 (R held)
5. NY-29
6. OH-01
7. OH-15
8. LA-02 (R held)
9. NY-24
10. VA-05
11. PA-07
12. PA-11
13. FL-24
14. TX-17
15. MD-01
16. DE-AL (R held)
17. IN-08
18. NH-02
19. WA-03
20. IL-10 (R held)

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
Good List
How about FL 25 (R Held)?
[ Parent ]
Made one of these the other day
Just made a few adjustments.
For fun, possible Democratic pickups are in bold. All six of them!

1. TN-06 OPEN (Gordon) R+13
2. NY-29 OPEN (Massa) R+5
3. DE-AL OPEN (Castle) D+7
4. AR-02 OPEN (Snyder) R+5
5. LA-03 OPEN (Melancon) R+12
6. LA-02 Joe Cao D+25
7. KS-03 OPEN (Moore) R+3
8. VA-05 Tom Perriello R+5
---Sorry guys, but a liberal congressman in a conservative district who only won by 700 votes in a great Democratic year against a flawed incumbent doesn't have too much hope in a Republican year against a strong challenger. Shame, because he really is a great public servant.
9. MI-01 OPEN (Stupak) R+3
10. OH-01 Steve Dreihaus D+1

11. IN-08 OPEN (Ellsworth) R+8
---I could see this turning around if Ellsworth gets his act together with the Senate race. I don't have a lot of confidence in his ability to do that anymore.
12. MS-01 Travis Childers R+14
13. MD-01 Frank Kratovil R+13
14. IL-11 Debbie Halvorsen R+1
15. PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+5
---This seat certainly wouldn't be safe if it were open, but there's no reason for this race to be this high up except that Kanjo didn't get the message and retire after 2008.
16. ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R+10
17. OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy D+1
18. AR-01 OPEN (Berry) R+8
19. PA-07 OPEN (Sestak) D+3
---Ditto this seat and Sestak's campaign, though I have more confidence in Sestak's ability to emerge from the point when the "experts" declare him dead because he's done it before.
20. HI-01 Charles Djou D+11

21. CO-04 Betsy Markey R+6
22. TN-08 OPEN (Tanner) R+6
23. WA-03 OPEN (Baird) D+0
24. MI-07 Mark Schauer R+2
---I don't really buy Schauer's poll; I think at the end of the day Michigan is going to be
25. WI-07 OPEN (Obey) D+3
26. OH-16 Jim Boccieri R+4
27. VA-02 Glenn Nye R+5
28. TX-17 Chet Edwards R+20
29. FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas R+4
---Alex Sink will likely help us a lot out here, but I'm not sure it will be enough.
30. IL-10 OPEN (Kirk) D+6
---I wonder if the toxic environment in IL this year could wrestle this seat away from us.

31. NH-02 OPEN (Hodes) D+3
32. SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin R+9
33. AL-02 Bobby Bright R+16
34. NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter R+0
35. PA-03 Kathy Dahlkemper R+3
36. NM-02 Henry Teague R+6
---It's right about here that I start to wonder if Democrats are slightly favored in just enough toss-ups to hang on to a tiny majority in the house.
37. MI-09 Gary Peters D+2
38. WV-01 OPEN (Mollohan) R+9
39. IN-09 Baron Hill R+6
40. NY-19 John Hall R+3

41. AZ-01 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6
42. WI-08 Steve Kagan R+2
43. SC-05 John Spratt R+7
44. AZ-05 Harry Mitchell R+5
---I strongly suspect (and know in case) that what polling we've gotten in this district has badly undersampled ASU students. The question is how many of them actually bother to show up when Obama is not on the ballot.
45. PA-08 Patrick Murphy D+2
46. CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+1
47. FL-08 Alan Grayson R+2
---Does Democratic control of the house rest on the broad, crazy shoulders of Alan Grayson? May the Flying Spaghetti Monster have mercy on us all.

--Control of the House--

48. CO-03 John Salazar R+5
49. MO-04 Ike Skelton R+14
50. NY-24 Mike Arcuri R+2

51. PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
---I think Marino's scandal has some legs. If it fizzles, this seat probably moves up about ten spots.
52. FL-25 OPEN (Diaz-Balart) R+5
53. IA-03 Leonard Boswell D+1
54. IL-14 Bill Foster R+1
55. TN-04 Lincoln Davis R+13
56. NV-03 Dina Titus D+2
57. OH-18 Zach Space R+7
58. FL-02 Allen Boyd R+6
59. NY-01 Tim Bishop R+0
60. IL-17 Phil Hare D+3

61. NC-08 Larry Kissell R+2
62. TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4
63. FL-24 Ron Klein D+1
64. GA-08 Jim Marshall R+10
65. AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords R+4
---Republicans nominated the wrong candidate here without question. Giffords will probably win the Northside suburbs and then it's pretty much over for Kelly.
66. WA-02 Rick Larsen D+3
67. PA-12 Mark Critz R+1
68. CA-47 Loretta Sanchez D+4
69. OH-06 Charlie Wilson R+2
70. IN-02 Joe Donnelly R+2

71. MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt) D+5
72. ID-01 Walter Minnick R+18
73. CA-03 Dan Lungren R+6
74. NC-11 Heath Schuler R+6
75. NM-01 Marty Heinrich D+5

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

Great list
Great list, even if all may not agree with your rankings, because you identify the incumbent and the PVI ranking.
[ Parent ]
Thoughts
I agree with you about Jesse Kelly being the wrong person to take on Giffords. She caught a major break with that one. I'll be curious if she wins if she decides to run for Senate in 2012 especially with an open seat if Kyl retires.

It also does suck that Tom Perriello is in a lot of danger. I disagree with you about his position on the line but it is hard to put him in a specific spot. He is in the top 20 for sure. I would say that Glenn Nye is much more likely to lose as Perriello is going to be able to get his base out. Both bases are African-Americans and I have a hard time seeing them turn out for Glenn Nye. Disclaimer here in that I am a Virginia resident and have helped Perriello's campaign through canvassing though I don't live in VA-05.  

You also seems much more high on both Dems going down in NH then I am. I see these as must holds for team blue as they are not going to be lost in redistricting and the state has trended much more blue lately. Bass is a retread and Guinta has many flaws that Shea-Porter can exploit. The X factor is going to be how Hodes can grow vs. Ayotte and either keep it close or even possibly win.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
AZ-08, VA-05, NH-01, NH-02
The funny thing about AZ-08 is I can think of like half of a dozen moderate or mainstream conservative Republicans who have been elected somewhere in the district. Jonathan Paton was probably to the right of all of them, yet he was still teabagged to death. On paper the district leans slightly Republican, but it tends to overall support whoever is perceived as more moderate. Until Republicans figure that out again (they got it right with Kolbe), I don't know how they win this seat. In the mean time, that makes me hopeful that we can hold this seat in 2012 if Giffords runs for Senate.

The way I see it with Perriello is that, yes, he might not lose by as large of a margin as other Democrats on that perilous part of my list. At the same time, it feels inevitable that he's going to lose. I think that's the main reason that he's so high up my list.

As far as New Hampshire goes, that state seems quite susceptible to trends. In 2006-2008, anti-war sentiments among other issues seemed to really resonate there, and it swung pretty hard to Democrats. I think this cycle's heavier focus on spending and the deficit may well result in a strong Republican swing. I don't know though; I could easily see someone listing these seats 10-plus places further down.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
Well-Done
I make no list myself, but blend the rankings of Cook, Rothenberg, Cilliza, Todd, SSP, etc. informally.  Yours is well done.

What I see in all of the lists is that vital line of control, and ask what we can do to hold the line.  Using your list, I would focus on the races from about 29 through 65.  Every election, big surprises happen, so races above 65 may fall and someone in the top 20 might win, but all we can do is choose the most effective place to target our energy and contributions to try to hold the line.  

My choice of 29-65 is a bit arbitrary, as I think #29 (FL-24), #31 (NH-02), and #34 (NH-01) deserve as much fight as we can put up.  I live near #46 (CA-11) and have contributed to and worked for McNerney, so he stays one of my priorities.  I think he is in trouble, but it rates a GOTV toss-up.  

I agree with your FL-24 comment, but think the senate race will also drive higher turn-out, helping us across the board (cutting that pesky enthusiasm gap).  In that light (and due to recent polls and a screwed up R candidate), I would push FL-25 up the list.    

[ Parent ]
NH's 2 Seats
I really have to agree with you on those two. They are must holds based on what I noted in my other post. Kuster needs to hammer Bass about his past experience in Congress and why the voters showed him the door in 2006. This is the perfect example of brining back the past and why do we want to go back to these policies? Kuster can and should run against Bass the incumbent.

Shea-Porter has gotten the message and is actually raising some good money. She has only won in great environments so it is a fair question how she can fare in this type of environment. She has a flawed opponent who didn't dominate his primary so it remains to be seen how great of a candidate Guinta really is.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Great list!
Since I don't find much to disagree with, and since I'm just too damned tired after a busy day, I'll just ditto your list instead of making my own. ;-)

I'll just add that I have a good feeling the flips will stop somewhere between #20 and #30. It still sucks that we'll be losing seats, including a couple I really like, but I'm still not seeing a bloodbath here and at the end of the day I think Pelosi will remain Speaker in 2011.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Kanjorski
Nico,

You are right about Kanjorski. Weak incumbents such as Karjorski or Boswell were rescued last time by spending disproportionate shares of party resources.  There ought to be someone (whether leadership or DCCC) who can tell these candidates, "Next time, you are on your own."

[ Parent ]
DCCC didn't have to spend
for Boswell (IA-03) in 2008--GOP nominated a nobody with no money. The DCCC did spend for him in 2002, 2004 and 2006, though.
[ Parent ]
One race I think we lose that no one has ranked high enough as likely to flip is...
...TX-23 with Ciro Rodriguez.

I will never forget that when he beat Henry Bonilla in 2006, it was in a December runoff where his victory required the DCCC to swoop in and completely take over the campaign.  Rodriguez just isn't a good campaigner at all and was in over his head even in that runoff, which he achieved only because of the weird redistricting court ruling that forced a weird election in Texas that year with district lines that Bonilla couldn't quite defend in such a bad climate.

That Rodriguez needed the DCCC to take over his entire campaign a couple cycles ago leaves me with zero confidence in his ability to survive now.

All that said, I've been so wrong about special elections and primaries all cycle that I have less confidence in my prognostication abilities for November than I have in Rodriguez's campaign abilities.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
He would go down
if Latino turnout is low.  But if the Arizona law gets Latinos energized, Rodriguez should survive.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
I share your reluctance to prognosticate
We're just not in a very stable political environment right now. Also, I suspect that a number of factors are making polling less reliable than in recent memory (i.e., the cell phone dog will finally bark; also, outdated full census figures).    
[ Parent ]
Republicans got the primary right (a rare occurence this cycle) in TX-23
Rather than nominate some random anti-immigrant Tea Party crazy, they went with Quico Canseco, who is both a Latino and a self-funder. I looked at his website-one of the only Republicans this side of Meg Whitman who has a "En Espanol" link clearly visible-and he seems like he can appeal to both Latinos and suburbanites. This is a tough district because of the Hispanic percentages, but if anyone can beat Rodriguez, it's Canseco.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Right the fact Obama only got 51% is also
concerning this district tilts slightly towards the GOP and Rodririguez is a weak incumbent. Ugh I wish Cuellar and Rodriguez represented each others districts they would be better fits.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I'm not convinced
Henry Bonilla was a Bush Republican on immigration as well.  I think the conservative reaction to immigration resulting in the Arizona law is going to motivate Latinos to vote Dem. This is one of the few districts where the Arizona law will hurt us rather than help us.

But i agree that Canseco is the best that we could get.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
I would still class WA 2 and "lean D" and WA 3 as "toss up"
I hope the DCCC will release another round of polling in WA 3 since Herrera's double speak on Social Security. I think Heck is going to pull this one out but it will be close. There seems to be slow but steady erosion of support for Herrera as more small business people from Thurston and Clark Counties endorse Heck.
I
have never done a House Cattle call before. Sounds like fun.  

1 LA-03  
2 TN-06  
3 AR-02  
4 NY-29  
5 DE-AL  
6 LA-02  
7 KS-03  
8 PA-07  
9 HI-01  
10 IN-08
11 CO-04  
12 NH-02  
13 PA-11  
14 OH-01
15 OH-15  
16 PA-03    
17 TX-17  
18 VA-05  
19 MS-01  
20 FL-08  
21 IL-11  
22 ND-AL  
23 OH-16
24 FL-02  
25 PA-08  
26 IL-10  
27 MI-01  
28 AR-01  
29 MD-01  
30 NM-02  
31 TN-08  
32 MI-01  
33 NY-24
34 VA-02  
35 MI-07  
37 SD-AL  
38 NY-19  
39 IA-03  
40 FL-24  

Wow, that was very hard, I am stopping here. I more than likely left some DOA's or likely DOA's off. I am sure if I had to rewrite this list without seeing this one it would be different. I am also sure when re-reading this I am going to rethink it. It's my first time. Oh Well, I did my best.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

MI-01
You have MI-01 in there twice.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Here we go...
1) TN-6 OPEN (Gordon)
2) LA-3 OPEN (Melancon)
3) AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) - should have gone with Wills
4) LA-2 Joseph Cao - don't care what any polls have been saying, this thing won't end up being close
5) NY-29 VACANT (Massa)
6) OH-1 Steve Driehaus
7) VA-5 Tom Perriello - sigh... I like this guy
8) KS-3 OPEN (Moore)
9) DE-AL OPEN (Castle) - Dems have solid candidate, and DE Repubs chose crazy on all fronts
10) CO-4 Betsy Markey
11) TX-17 Chet Edwards - I also like him (he outperforms his district big time), unfortunately he probably loses badly
12) IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth)
13) HI-1 Charles Djou - I hate Ed Case for putting us in this situation in the first place
14) OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
15) MD-1 Frank Kratovil
16) WA-3 OPEN (Baird)
17) MS-1 Travis Childers
18) ND-AL Earl Pomeroy
19) FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
20) MI-1 OPEN (Stupak) - Gary McDowell is actually pretty strong
21) AR-1 OPEN (Berry) - This would be top 10 if there candidate wasn't Rick Crawford
22) PA-11 Paul Kanjorski
23) TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) - Roy Herron is also strong
24) IL-11 Debbie Halvorson
25) WV-1 OPEN (Mollohan) - Very bad environment in WV
26) VA-2 Glenn Nye
27) PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
28) MI-7 Mark Schauer - At least Walberg sucks
29) OH-16 John Boccieri
30) PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper
31) NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
32) FL-8 Alan Grayson - Grayson v. Webster ought to be fun
33) AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
34) IN-9 Baron Hill
35) WI-7 OPEN (Obey)
36) NM-2 Harry Teague - for a while I thought he was DOA, but I think he still has a decent shot
37) NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
38) AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick - too bad we have so many pro-choice women (Markey, Kilroy, Kosmas, Halvorson, Shea-Porter, Kirkpatrick) in swing districts facing tough odds against anti-choice d-bags (Gardner, Stivers, Adams, Kinzinger, Guinta, Gosar)
39) IL-10 OPEN (Kirk)
40) AL-2 Bobby Bright - if he loses, its simply because of the D next to his name as he is a perfect match for this district
41) SC-5 John Spratt
42) SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
43) NY-19 John Hall
44) FL-2 Allen Boyd
45) PA-8 Patrick Murphy - I really like this guy as well, hopefully voters don't go for retread Fitzpatrick
46) NC-8 Larry Kissell
47) IL-14 Bill Foster
48) NY-1 Tim Bishop
49) WI-8 Steve Kagen
50) CA-11 Jerry McNerney
51) MI-9 Gary Peters
52) NV-3 Dina Titus
53) GA-8 Jim Marshall
54) PA-12 Mark Critz
55) IA-3 Leonard Boswell
56) CO-3 John Salazar
57) OH-18 Zach Space
58) CA-47 Loretta Sanchez - open mouth, insert foot
59) MO-4 Ike Skelton
60) MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt)
61) NY-24 Mike Arcuri - by far most overrated district for chance of flipping, even though he's not my favorite
62) NM-1 Martin Heinrich
63) ID-1 Walt Minnick
64) AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
65) PA-10 Chris Carney - big time Marino baggage, plus positive press for Carney pretty much all cycle
66) FL-25 OPEN (M. Diaz-Balart)
67) TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
68) NY-13 Mike McMahon
69) IN-2 Joe Donnelly
70) VA-11 Gerry Connolly
71) IL-17 Phil Hare
72) NJ-3 John Adler
73) WA-2 Rick Larsen
74) PA-15 Charlie Dent
75) TN-4 Lincoln Davis
32) FL-8
actually is Grayson v. Webster v Dunmire (a FL Tea Party female candidate spending $250K on TV. http://www.swingstateproject.c... ) And hopefully will split the rightmost vote, helping Grayson to better his previous winning margin of 4%.
[ Parent ]
Also good list...
Looks very much possible... But again, all I'll add is that I think the flips stop somewhere between #20 and #30. Well, except that I have a sense MD-01 may end up being an easier hold than AR-01...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Why not?
Gone:

TN-06. 100% chance of flipping.
LA-03.
AR-02. Wrong candidate, wrong year.
KS-03. Ditto. Don't run the retiring incumbent's wife.
NY-29. Buh-bye.
VA-05.
OH-01. Chabot only lost b/c of black vote for Obama.
TX-17. Edwards is hosed.
SC-05. So is Spratt. (Hint: don't announce you have Parkinson's then immediately file for re-election!)
IL-11. And Halverson.

Likely Gone:

DE-AL
HI-01
MI-07. This is a weird district that hates Walberg, but hates being represented by a Dem even more.
OH-15. Kilroy sucks at campaigning.
CO-04. Red district, red year.
FL-24. Kosmas is weak.  
PA-03. So is Dahlkemper.
LA-02 .
AR-01.
FL-24.
VA-02.
PA-07. Philly suburbs suck for us this year.
PA-08. Not optimistic about this race.
NY-19. And got a bad feeling about this one, too.
FL-02. Boyd might pull it out, but I doubt it.
IL-10 Can't be taken for granted, though.
MS-01. Childers will go down fighting, at least.
FL-25 Garcia is a great candidate and this area is bluing fast. Good feeling about this one.
WI-07. Not enough polling, but WI is shaping up to be one of our worst states, so I'm not optimistic.
MA-10. Too many Dems spoil the broth here.
NH-02. Kuster a good candidate, but starting too late.
TN-08. Like MS-01, not going out without a fight.  
MI-01. We're down, but close to tying. Could still win here.
WA-03. Ditto.

Tossups:

MD-01. Ugly, ugly district, but Harris has lost before.  
IN-08. Ellsworth is working harder to save this seat than he is to actually win the Senate race.
OH-16. Not too sanguine about Boccieri's chances.
AL-02. Dead tossup. No idea how it'll break.
MI-09. Even district, bad state, bad year, tossup race.
IL-17. No polling, so let's leave it here.
KS-04 . Pompeo's gone "full Sali" here.
NY-23. Hoffman is a non-factor at this point.
WV-01. Olivero teabaggish enough to win, but he'll be a Republican by spring.
NM-02. I have no idea where to put this one.
WI-08. Or this one.

Lean incumbent:

IL-14.
CT-05. We're in way more trouble here than we think.
ND-AL. Rumors of Pomeroy's demise are greatly exaggerated, but it'll still be close.
IA-03. Ditto for Boswell.  
CA-11.
NY-01. I don't trust blue-state suburban voters this year.
NV-03. Titus gets a lot of ex-Porter voters and is fighting.
IN-09. No way a guy from Bloomington/Carmel beats Hill.
NH-01. Guinta sucks. CSP will defy the pundits once again.
NY-24. Arcuri will win in spite of himself.  
TX-23.
CT-04. Himes is made of money.  
NY-20. Murphy will hold on.
AZ-01.
NM-01. Will be surprisingly close.
ID-01. Minnick's in great shape given his district.
IA-02. Closer than it should be.
CA-03 . Ditto, only in our direction.
SD-AL. Not even this year.
NJ-03. Winnable race for the GOP, then they picked Runyan.
OR-05. Bruun is overrated. Schrader will sweep rural areas.
AZ-08. Another GOP fail.
IN-02. Ditto. Donnelly can lose, but not to Wacky Jackie.
NY-13. And while we're at it....Staten Island GOP WIN.
MI-03 . Mostly overlooked, but still worth watching.
AZ-07.  
CA-47.
PA-15 Right candidate, wrong year.
MA-05. Because Tsongas is weak and MA voters are idiots.
CA-45 . Had to put it somewhere.
MN-06 . We can dream.
PA-12. Critz is facing Burns. Otherwise there'd be trouble.
OH-18. Really don't see Space in trouble.
PA-06 .  

Likely incumbent:

NC-08. Kissell fits his district well.
OH-13. Even in Ohio this year, Sutton will be fine.
WA-02. Overrated. Nobody knows how to poll Washington.
WA-09. Ditto.
ME-01. Pingree is weak, but no real opponent.  
PA-10. Yes, I put Carney this low, even this year.
CA-18. Overrated.
CA-20. Ditto.
VA-11. Tritto.
UT-02.  
MA-03. Even I don't see this one being that competitive.
ME-02. Don't buy the poll showing Langevin down.
KY-06.
KY-03.
RI-02. Not here, either.
NC-02. Only on the MSM list because some teabaggers threw a hissy fit after big bad Etheridge called them stupid.
RI-01. Safest Dem open seat of the cycle.
IA-01.
PA-04.
VA-09.  

Crap.
Forgot FL-08. Between IL-14 and CT-05.

Forgot NC-07. Between AZ-08 and IN-02.

IN-02 should be higher. Meh.

Totally forgot about Georgia, but I don't think any seats in that state will change hands this year, and if anyone loses, it'll be Bishop, not Matheson.  

[ Parent ]
Matheson doesn't represent Georgia...
He represents Utah.

And isn't Mick Olivero supposed to be very pro-EFCA, pro-union?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Nope
That's the problem...we got screwed on all sides with this one.  I remember reading here that the AFL-CIO said it wasn't dropping dimes here because of Oliverio's noxiousness, even towards labor, but someone else needs to grab the link.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
MA-10 Notes
I see that 4-candidate race differently, and someone who's on the ground here is free to correct me on anything....

This year's electorate seems close to evenly split between people who want a Congresscritter who does on Capitol Hill more or less what Delahunt does now (or perhaps someone more progressive even) and people who want someone more conservative.

The former group really only has one option, Bill Keating. The latter group has three - GOPer Jeff Perry, and independents James Sheets and Maryann Lewis.

I don't see who's voting for Lewis at all anyway. She's just as much of a carpetbagger Keating is and she's going for the same unenrolled vote that Sheets is chasing. (Don't forget that Perry needs them too; the actual Republican/movement conservative vote's not enough.) As Tom Finneran's BFF on Beacon Hill (from a completely different part of the state, to boot) it's not like she's getting any progressives or Democratic loyalists to vote for her.  

As for Sheets, what I've heard of him sounds like he wants to repeal the health care bill and get tough on illegal immigrants. Perry needs a near monopoly on the votes of people who feel that way to win. Sheets' only other possible appeal is to people from Quincy who want someone from their town who isn't Bill Keating, who isn't really from Quincy...but Sheets has been out of office for a decade anyway.

I also wonder where their funding is coming from, because they're going to need that to get any traction. I've read nothing suggesting that either can self-fund.  


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
FL 12
No one seems to have this anywhere on their lists despite polling suggesting the Dem, Lori Edwards can hit 40 percent and still win. That's because there is a legitimate 3rd party Teabagger in the race who was polling around 25 percent. Anyone think we can take this seat?

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
Is the independent candidate spending a lot of money on TV ads???......
If he's not, then the polling is a fraud.  Third wheels don't get serious vote shares without visibility, which almost always has to be bought.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
that could be very different with tea-baggers though
They're probably the one group that'd actually stick with a well-known tea-bagger rather than the usual drop-off
[ Parent ]
I'm going to say
AR-2
TN-6
TN-8
VA-5
LA-3
LA-2
IL-11
PA-3
DE-AL
PA-7
HI-1
MI-1

...That's all I got right now.

Without having read anyone else's....
excluding possibly Democratic pickups.

1) TN-6
2) AR-2
3) NY-29
4) LA-3
5) KS-3
6) IN-8
7) VA-5
8) MI-1
9) IL-11
10) TX-17
11) AR-1
12) TN-8
13) MD-1
14) OH-1
15) MS-1
16) PA-8
17) PA-3
18) PA-10
19) OH-16
20) CO-4
21) WA-3
22) NH-2
23) PA-11
24) ND-AL
25) PA-7
26) OH-15
27) FL-24
28) WV-1
29) IN-9
30) MI-7
31) NY-19
32) AZ-5
33) NM-2
33) AL-2
34) GA-8
35) NH-1
36) WI-8
37) AZ-1
38) IL-14
39) CO-3
40) VA-2
41) FL-8
42) SC-5
43) SD-AL
44) FL-2
45) NV-3
46) NY-24
47) MI-9
48) TN-4
49) PA-12
50) IL-17
51) WA-2
52) OH-18
53) TX-23
54) CA-11
55) CO-7
56) NC-8
57) OH-6
58) NC-11
59) NJ-3
60) PA-4

My current house ranking
Goes like this:

1.TN-6
2.AR-2
3.NY-29
4.LA-2 (dem)
5.LA-3
6.PA-11
7.DE-1 (dem)
8.WA-3
9.IL-11
10.VA-2
11.OH-1
12.MI-1
13.AR-1
14.KS-3
15.NH-2
16.VA-5
17.MD-1
18.TX-17
19.PA-3
20.ND-1
21.MS-1
22.PA-7
23.OH-15
24.CO-4
25.HI-1 (dem)
26.IL-10 (dem)
27.MI-7
28.AZ-5
29.FL-24
30.PA-8
31.SC-5
32.TN-8
33.FL-2
34.WI-7
35.IL-14
36.FL-25 (dem)
37.NY-19
38.FL-8
39.PA-10
-------------------- my flip line
39.OH-16
40.MO-4
41.NY-24
42.AL-2
43.IA-3
44.NM-2
-------------------- house majority line
45.AZ-1
46.FL-22
47.NY-1
48.NV-3
49.GA-8
50.CA-11
51.WA-2
52.FL-12 (dem)
53.TX-23
54.SD-1
55.CO-3
56.TN-4
57.ID-1
58.NC-8
59.WI-8
60.WV-1
61.IN-9
62.MI-9
63.OH-18
64.OR-5
65.IL-17
66.NY-13
67.MA-10
68.CO-7
69.NJ-3
70.CT-5
71.NY-23
72.MS-4
73.OH-13
74.UT-2
75.KY-6

I hope I didn't forget anybody obvious.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Here's My First Shot At It.
(Republican-held seats in bold.)
LA-02
TN-06
LA-03
NY-29
DE-AL
AR-02
VA-02
TN-08
OH-01
AR-01
HI-01
KS-03
PA-07
OH-15
PA-11
NH-02 (-10)
-- I think the losses above the line are sure things. --
MI-07
VA-05
CO-04
SC-05
MI-01
IL-10
PA-08
MD-01
ND-AL
IN-09
-- Toss-Up territory starts about here. --
FL-08
NM-02 (-20)
NY-24
IL-11
AZ-05
FL-24
NH-01
NY-19
MI-09
IL-14
-- I think here's where we are now. Certainly the next couple dozen seats down are still very much in doubt. --
FL-25
IA-03
FL-02
TX-17 (-30)
NC-08
WV-01
NY-01
WA-03
TX-23
AL-02
PA-12
SD-AL
-- Line of Control --
WA-02 (-40)
NV-03
GA-08
AZ-01
NY-23
-- I'd say the incumbent party was favored by at least a little from here on down. --
OH-16
PA-04
CA-11
WI-08
OH-13
KS-04
ID-01
MO-04 (-50)
NC-11
OH-18
NY-20
IN-08
CA-20
NM-01
MA-10
CA-18
TN-04
NJ-03
AZ-08 (-60)
PA-10
CT-05
GA-12
NC-02
-- Here's about where the stunners would start. --
CO-03
IN-02
PA-06
WA-09
UT-02
CA-47
VA-09
MS-04
VA-11 (-70)
MN-01
KY-06
PA-15
AR-04

I actually feel better about holding the House after doing this. There's sadly a near-complete lack of good second-tier Democratic opportunities...but Team Blue only needs to hold seats where they seem to have a better-than-even chance of keeping to hold on.

I see a few seats above the line where I like our chances reasonably well.


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

Since you live near MD-01, what do you see there?
Also, I'd move AR-01 lower down.  Chad Causey is running a good campaign and Clinton can stump for him again, I'm sure.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
MD-01
Here's what I am seeing in MD-01.

It's an R+13 district in a Republican year. The main contest in the state is the Governor's race which is a tossup; Bob Ehrlich is going to run up big margins in this territory in that race, significantly bigger than the 58-40 McCain got. So in effect Kratovil needs even more ticket splitting than he did last time.  

But unlike many other districts on here, I'm not seeing a lot of polls. I have been expecting to see some pro-GOP outfit put out a poll showing a significant Harris lead and that hasn't happened. The last poll I saw was a Dem internal saying Kratovil's up 6. I don't trust that poll at all, but I saw no Republican response. Harris is not short on funding.

The most disturbing thing I saw was Andy Harris having more total primary votes than Frank Kratovil despite the former having a primary opponent in Rob Fisher. Fisher described himself as a conservative but his main appeal seemed to be among voted who wanted an Eastern Shore representative (as opposed to Baltimore suburbanite Harris) or wanted someone who wasn't a professional politician.    

This district should be a slam dunk for the GOP; it was drawn for them. Except for the fact that he's flush with money, Harris is a bad candidate. He has no cross party appeal and is one of the least liked people in Annapolis. In a district where the health of the Chesapeake is important to swing-type voters, Harris can always be counted on to oppose anything designed to protect any environment.  Kratovil is about the strongest Democratic candidate that can be hoped for here, with a moderate profile and Shore residence.

But it took a perfect storm - perfect Democratic candidate, great year for Democrats driven by turnout for Obama, and a bitterly divisive GOP primary that resulted in a lousy candidate for their side   for Team Blue last time. I'm afraid too much has changed for the worse...but I've been expecting polls that tell me this district is as good as gone and haven't seen them.  


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Yo
SAFE FLIPS 100%

TN-06 Gordon R
AR-02 Snyder R
NY-29 Massa R
LA-02 Cao D
LA-03 Melancon R
OH-01 Driehaus R
PA-11 Kanjorski R
OH-15 Kilroy R

8 to Republican, 1 to Democratic, NET 7 Republican

LIKELY FLIPS 75%-100%

OH-16 Boccieri R
TX-17 Edwards R
DE-AL Castle D
IL-11 Halvorson R
NH-02 Hodes R
MI-07 Schauer R
HI-01 Djou D
PA-03 Dahlkemper R
PA-08 Murphy R
WA-03 Baird R
IN-08 Ellsworth R
PA-07 Sestak R
WI-07 Obey R

11 to Republican, 2 to Democratic, NET 16 Republican

LEAN FLIP 55%-75%

IL-10 Kirk D
VA-05 Perriello R
AR-01 Berry R
AZ-05 Mitchell R
MI-09 Peters R
MI-01 Stupak R
SC-05 Spratt R
FL-02 Boyd R
IL-14 Foster R
NM-02 Teague R

9 to Republican, 1 to Democratic, NET 24 Republican

TOSSUP 45%-55%

CO-04 Markey R
TX-23 Rodriguez R
FL-25 Diaz-Balart D
VA-02 Nye R
ND-AL Pomeroy R
NV-03 Titus R
KS-04 Tiahrt D
AZ-01 Kirkpatrick R
MS-01 Childers R
NH-01 Shea Porter R
FL-24 Kosmas R
NJ-03 Adler R
CA-11 McNerney R
WI-08 Kagen R
MO-04 Skelton R
NY-24 Arcuri R
MD-01 Kratovil R
NY-19 Hall R

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FLIP-TOSSUP/TILT DEMOCRATIC RETENTION

IN-02 Donnelly R
FL-12 Putnam R

18 to Republican, 2 to Democratic, NET 40 Republican

LEAN RETENTION 25%-45%

NM-01 Heinrich R
NC-08 Kissell R
SD-AL Herseth Sandlin R
WA-02 Larsen R
FL-08 Grayson R
AL-02 Bright R
IA-03 Boswell R
NY-01 Bishop R
FL-24 Klein R
IL-17 Hare R

10 to Republican, 0 to Democratic, NET 50 Republican

LIKELY RETENTION 10%-25%

AZ-08 Giffords R
IN-09 Hill R
OR-05 Schrader R
CO-03 Salazar R
PA-10 Carney R
TN-04 Davis R
OH-18 Space R
CA-47 Sanchez R
PA-15 Dent D
PA-12 Critz R
NY-23 Owens R
WA-08 Reichert D
PA-06 Jim Gerlach D
MN-01 Walz R
MS-04 Taylor R
NY-13 McMahon R
PA-17 Holden R
ID-01 Minnick R

15 to Republican, 3 to Democratic, NET 62 Republican

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

Top 50
46 D, 4 R.

TN 6
LA 3
NY 29
AR 2
LA 2
MS 1
MD 1
CO 4
OH 1
MI 1
DE
VA 5
KS 3
VA 2
FL 24
OH 15
TX 17
PA 7
TN 8
IN 8
HI 1
FL 2
AR 1
FL 8
OH 16
NM 2
PA 11
IL 11
WA 3
PA 8
ND
MI 7
IL 14
WI 7
NH 2
SC 5
WI 8
IN 9
NY 19
NH 1
AZ 5
NY 24
NV 3
AL 2
PA 10
SD
AZ 1
FL 22
IL 10

House Cattle Call (September 2010) | 39 comments

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