The Senate half of the Field Poll is out today, giving Barbara Boxer an increased lead over Carly Fiorina from the previous poll in early July. Oddly, though, the lead doesn't come from gains for either candidate, but from voters moving from Fiorina to "undecided." To me, that's pretty suggestive that Boxer's ad campaign so far (which includes a spot hitting Fiorina for her tenure at HP) has been effective at driving up Fiorina's negatives.
Compared with the gubernatorial race, where both candidates are playing to the center and courting swing voters, this is one about base agitation, and there's just a much larger Dem base in California. On top of that, Boxer leads 48-29 among Latinos (a much bigger spread than in the governor's race, where Meg Whitman has spent a lot on Latino outreach), and even leads 46-40 among independents. Unless Fiorina can find a way to either take a huge lead among indies or to get a lot of Democrats to stay home, she's not on track to win this.
