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SSP Daily Digest: 9/22 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 8:09 AM EDT


  • DE-Sen: Christine O'Donnell has decided to go the J.D. Salinger route: She told Sean Hannity that she's doing no more interviews, ever. Okay, well, at least as far as the national media are concerned. But it's nothing to get upset over, sports fans: Thanks to the advent of the Internet, we will hear about all her gaffes and insanities even if she's only talking to the Kent County Evening Bugle-Reporter-Sentinel. In that same interview with Hannity, she also managed to tell some nice lies about Chris Coons, claiming that he "made some very anti-American statements, apologizing for America and calling himself a bearded Marxist." Of course, the "bearded Marxist" line was a joke, though undoubtedly O'Donnell is too dense to grasp that.

  • CO-Gov: You know, as we were getting to know Christine O'Donnell, I had a feeling that she was so low-rent, she'd make even Dan Maes look good. Well, that appears to be all but fucking impossible, even for O'Donnell. Maes raised just $14K in the first two weeks of September and currently has $24K in the bank. Not sure there's a sack big enough fit that much sad.

  • MI-Gov: WLNS-TV could have saved themselves some money by just reading the Swing State Project, but they went ahead and commissioned a poll of the gubernatorial race anyway. Anyhow, the Marketing Resource Group shows exactly what you'd expect: Rick Snyder beating Virg Bernero 49-31.

  • AL-02: The NRA's infiltration of the Democratic Party continues apace, this time with an endorsement for Bobby Bright.

  • AZ-07: This smells fishy to me. A Republican operative is saying he's seen internal polls showing Some Dude Ruth McClung in a dead heat with Rep. Raul Grijalva in this 57% Obama district. But local Dem and GOP pols say they've seen nothing of the kind. McClung has only $15K on hand, but this ain't good: Grijalva, after spending half a mil so far this cycle, has just $77K in the bank.

  • IA-02: Evidently Mariannette Miller-Meeks did not get the Club For Growth's memo: She's now saying she opposes privatizing Social Security, ostensibly because she thinks its finances are rickety. But isn't the whole reason conservative douchewads want to private Social Security is because that's how they think they can "save" it? I'm confused!

  • ID-01: Heh - fucker couldn't buy a break even if Ron Popiel was selling `em. Even though the NRA gave Raul Labrador a better grade than Walt Minnick, they declined to endorse either candidate. Suckaaaaa.

  • WATN?: Remember this story? Last cycle, Chris Shays' former campaign manager, Michael Sohn, stole a quarter million dollars from his boss's election accounts. Now, Sohn has been sentenced to 37 months in prison. Shays must go to sleep every night wondering if that extra $250K would have meant the difference between winning and losing....

    • SSP TV (by James L.):

    • FL-Sen: Charlie Crist's new ad hits Rubio for all the pork-laden bills that he sent to the Governor's desk while serving as Speaker of the Florida House
    • KY-Sen: Conservative group American Crossroads spending $235K against Jack Conway (D) - no copy of ad yet
    • NH-Sen: Paul Hodes' new ad is a folksy spot on fiscal conservatism, including chiding Kelly Ayotte for supporting tax cuts for the rich
    • CO-07: Ryan Frazier wields some kind of laser pen while reciting a bunch of B.S. GOP boilerplate
    • FL-22: Allen West says that Ron Klein is no moderate
    • FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas would like you to know that she's never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down
    • MO-04: Ike Skelton issues a fierce but vague attack on GOPer Vicky Hartzler's support for veterans, from the mouths of veterans
    • NY-20: Chris Gibson says that we have to let market forces drive healthcare costs down. Yeah, like that worked the first time, moron.
    • PA-03: Mike Kelly and the NRCC team up to hit Kathy Dahlkemper on SPENDING OUR CHILDREN'S FUTURE INTO OBLIVION!!!!11!
    • PA-04: Keith Rothfus' new ad takes the ice cream sandwich approach: two layers of delicious cookie crunch surrounding a mid-section of negative ice cream. I realize that makes no sense, but... God, I'm hungry.
    • PA-10: Tom Marino's first ad plays defense against Chris Carney's hard-hitting ads against his sleazy record

    Independent Expenditures (all from the DCCC today):

    • AL-02: $82K media buy
    • HI-01: $53K media buy
    • IA-03: $71K media buy/production
    • IL-14: $19K on direct mail
    • MI-01: $24K media buy
    • MI-07: $67K media buy
    • MS-01: $49K media buy/production
    • NC-08: $200K media buy/production
    • NY-24: $27K media buy/production
    • OH-13: $232K media buy/production
    • OH-16: $26K media buy/production
    • WI-07: $61K media buy
    • VA-02: $86K media buy/production
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/22 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 9/22 (Morning Edition) | 149 comments
    You guys didn't post the Quinnipiac shocker of the day....
    That being Quomo beating Palladino by only 6 points!?!?!?!

    What, exactly, IS in that Quinnipiac likely voter screen?

    Either that, or the world is really ending...

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x131...

    I'm pretty sure that will be worthy of its own diary.


    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    I'm not part of the "wave away any poll with a bad result" contingent
    but I'm pretty sure this one is out there. Paladino's been in the mid-20s in every poll up to this date, and now he's up to the low-40s? Something's not right here; even Rasmussen doesn't show a primary bounce this big.
    [ Parent ]
    The jump could be Paladino consolidating the GOP vote
    You would be surprised how excited a lot of the rank and file GOP are about Paladino. This is why I cant see any room for Lazio to pick up votes.

    What scary about this poll was it had Paladino beating Cuomo among independents.

    So Paladino's getting the Galisano vote and the base GOP vote.

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    [ Parent ]
    My God
    If that's even close to accurate, the world really is ending.

    Male, 23, NJ-12
    [ Parent ]
    Q
    They must have an even more apocalyptic likely voter scenario in mind than SUSA.  They were out of the mainstream with their Ohio polls last week putting Strickland and Fisher down 17 points too.  (Rass had Kasich leading Strickland by 6 yesterday)

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    Irony of ironies.
    Rasmussen is currently producing the best results for Democrats in quite a few states.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Love for Scottie
    I never thought I would see such love for Scottie Ras as I have seen over the last few weeks.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Trust me I have no love for Scottie.
    Just an objective observation.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Polling this cycle
    Seeing both sides twist and turn over polling this cycle is interesting.  On this site it has not got out of control, but on some others it has become a sport to see who can trash and love a pollster the most on a given day.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Ras
    I always thought the big knock against Ras was not that they were incapable of doing any good polling, it was that they put out skewed GOP-leaning polls early on to set the media narrative and then slowly moved back to the mainstream of polling as elections drew closer?  

    33, male, Dem, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    The pattern is all polling, Rasmussen and others, converge as an election gets close......
    Rasmussen may or may not move at all as an election gets close.  If their GOP-biased polls early are followed by real GOP momentum as an election approaches, Rasmussen's numbers don't have to move at all.  Or they still might.

    But there still is a GOP bias in Rasmussen that is detectable if an election moves away from Repbulicans toward the end, like in 2008.  Rasmussen was dead wrong on a bunch of important swing states, failing to see Obama winning Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, or Indiana, and understating Obama's margins in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and elsewhere.

    The problem with evaluating polling ultimately is that most or all polling converges at the end.  A lot of that is because as an election gets close, voters are engaged, it's easier to gauge who's really going to vote because respondents are more sure of it, and they are increasingly sure about who they will vote for.  So all the polling models move toward the same point.

    I've learned ultimately just to trust the totality of polling.  At the least you can correctly predict the winners that way in most cases.  But even then sometimes you can't; only one or two pollsters had Obama winning Indiana.

    Regarding NY-Gov, I think the tightening is real, I think a 6-point race is bunk unless others corroborate.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    but...
    that doesn't necessarily jive with the facts on the ground...the non-Razzy polls have moved closer to him than the other way round. This seems to indicate that Razzy had a better read on the pulse of the electorate than most others - it's all conjecture at this point though - I know it's a cliche, but the poll that counts is in 6 weeks...

    35, male, Indian-American, Republican, MD-08 (formerly MI-9)
    [ Parent ]
    It's worked out that way this year, but Rasmussen was way off in 2006 and 2008......
    In the previous 2 cycles Rasmussen showed the same strong GOP bias for long time until the final months, but then its numbers moved toward other polling to show Democratic momentum which everyone else saw many months earlier.

    Rasmussen just has a GOP bias no matter what.  If it proves warranted, their numbers don't move, and they look like geniuses.  More often, the bias is unwarranted, and Rasmussen's polling moves toward everyone else's.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I wonder if the reported Rasmussen "tight voter screen"
    moves towards Ds naturally as we get closer to election day.

    aka -- Rasmussen has a screen that counted only (near) political junkies, and most Ds don't get up to speed until Labor Day, or even later, when they get their voter pamphlets.

    If this hypothesis is true, Rasmussen will become even less R (relative to other pollsters) as we approach election day.

    [ Parent ]
    Just wait until tomorrow...
    I'm sure they will be releasing senate numbers tomorrow with their extremely tight voter screen.
    [ Parent ]
    They may have Gillibrand tied or even losing.
    Ras showed 16 point lead for Cuomo and 10 point lead for Gillibrand.  So if Quinnipiac shows the same six-point gap, Gillibrand is dead even with DioGuardi.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    That's what I'm seeing...
    Although their PA sample was much more friendly to the Senate race...

    With this "enthusiasm gap", Schumer may even have not so stratospheric numbers...

    [ Parent ]
    Somewhere in New York...
    Rudy Giuliani is noun, verbing and 9/11ing while kicking himself.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Yes but no one can hear him noun, verbing and 9/11ing....
    because George Pataki's noun, verbing and 9/11ing about not running is drowning Rudy out.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    1966
    Schumer is totally safe for New York's other Senate seat, and not since 1966 (in South Carolina) has a state simultaneously voted for Senators of different parties.
    [ Parent ]
    I can verify Q-poll in NY-Gov has a much more GOP-heavy sample than Rasmussen......
    The crosstabs show by party ID, in the Q-poll Cuomo is plus-78 with Dems, minus-70 with GOPers, and minus-6 with indies.  Rasmussen has Cuomo plus-67 with Dems, minus-51 with GOPers, and minus-5 with indies.

    You can see those are very comparable, the biggest difference being more Republican defectors to Cuomo appearing in Rasmussen than in the Q-poll.  But the "defection gap" between GOPers for Cuomo versus Dems for Paladino is only 5 points, meaning a 10-point gap favorable to Cuomo in Rasmussen, compared to a 5-point gap in the Q-poll.

    Ultimately the polls' differences in defection rates don't explain the wide variance in the toplines.  Rasmussen has Cuomo up 53-38, compared to the 6-point Q-poll spread, and tweaking crosstabs doesn't make up the difference.

    That means the Q-poll had to have more Republicans and fewer Dems than Rasmussen.  Rasmussen recently started displaying its turnout model by a few categories including party ID, but for some reason didn't do that for its recent NY-Gov poll, which was conducted last Thursday, so it's still very recen).  The Q-poll polled from last Thursday through this Monday, a 5-day stretch.

    Ultimately I'm inclined to take the Q-poll as an outlier absent other corroboration.  I don't doubt there is real tightening, but I don't buy a 6-point race.  If the election were held today, I don't doubt Cuomo would win by double digits.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Either it's an outlier
    or we've got a problem.

    [ Parent ]
    FWIW,
    Both Cuomo and Schumer are on TV.
    [ Parent ]
    New York
    New York clearly wants to go Republican.  The only bunch preventing it is NYGOP.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Well
    Democrats did get clobbered in the NY suburbs last year so it does fit your line of thinking. But the NY GOP is in shambles.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    I'm thinking
    That Paladino and DioGuardi can get to that 40-45% range just based on the cycle but getting over 50% will be the problem, basically because the NYS GOP is such a mess.  
    [ Parent ]
    A strong observation
    Unless Paladino/DioGuardi plan on winning Indies by 20 points, they'll need to siphon off a solid 15-20% of Democrats to prevail.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    NY
    This is scary.  Paladino as governor would be an absolute train wreck for NY.

    29/D/Male/NY-01
    [ Parent ]
    Crazy
    Sometimes you need a crazy person to get something done - that's why I supported Perot!  Still, if Spitzer thought he was a f'ing steamroller, baby, Lord knows what Carl thinks he is.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Agreed about Carl
    But how much worse can he get than Paterson? At least, that is probably what a lot of NYers are thinking. Albany is such a trainwreck right now and Cuomo is the de-facto incumbent at this point so he might take a lot of heat for that.  
    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    New Yorkers had enough 4 years ago when they voted overwhelmingly for things to change from day one. Instead they got the train wreck of Spitzer, Patterson & Espada.

    The problem for Cuomo is if voters are so fed up at the current train wreck they might be inclinded to send Paladino to Albany with his baseball bat.


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    [ Parent ]
    Their question left off Lazio
    Even though he'll be on the ballot.
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe...
    He's being pushed to get off the ballot, and this poll just might do it.  The conservative party needs to  make sure they have 50,000 votes for the election or lose their ballot line, and Lazio just may not be enough to do it if Palladino is truly surging.
    [ Parent ]
    So tough in NY
    to get off the ballot. Basically you have to either die, move out of state or become a judge. I'm sure the Conservatives were really wishing they had put Paladino on their line at this point though.  
    [ Parent ]
    Not exactly . . .
    To get off the ballot you need only be nominated for a judgment.  Your chance of winning is irrelevant.  So if Lazio wanted to bail, he could have the Conservative Party nominate him for a judgeship in Long Island.  
    [ Parent ]
    or nominated for a judgeship in the Bronx....
    It happens all the time in NY. I beleive judical nominations are due by Sep 27th. So there is still time for Lazio to get off the ballot.

    I think this poll will force Lazio to drop out and give the Conservative Party line to Paladino.

    Paladino also needs to fix his Taxpayers Party line. Right now he has 2 different Lt Gov candidates so votes for Paladino on that line cannot be combined with his GOP vtes. Until that is fixed Paladino will also be running against himself as well as Cuomo.


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    [ Parent ]
    Ah
    nominated, for a judgeship. My bad. That is hilarious right now about the LG thing though. Imagine if he would have won by a small amount but didn't bc of the LG mixup?  
    [ Parent ]
    I sincerely doubt he'll break 30%
    call me shocked if he does.  

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
    [ Parent ]
    Honestly
    At this point I'd put Paladino getting at least 40% just based on the mood of the country and the state. Albany is despised in NY right now.  
    [ Parent ]
    Still strikes me as unlikely that he's a factor here
    Some downstate Republicans might bolt for him, but I almost think they'd back Cuomo instead, especially if Paladino makes this thing competitive. I'd be stunned if he pulled more than 3%.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    I was gonna say Quinnipiac might be oversampling Republicans...
    But, their Pennsylvania #s strike me as pretty dead-on. My hunch is, if this poll holds any water, Paladino must have upwards of a 20-point upstate. And, indeed, that's the only way he wins - my running up a crazy margin among the upstate crowd. I do think Cuomo needs to get his act together and actually excite some Democrats - his campaign thus far has been near-lethargic - but I suspect a few negative ads can bring Paladino back down to earth. Plus, as I've said before, Paladino needs at least 15-17% of Dems to win, and he's only at 8% here. The electorate make-up is holding him back and probably will from here on out.

    All that being said, this can't help Democrats down-ballot. I've been thinking DioGuardi out-performs Paladino by at least 5 points, and if this Quinnipiac poll were correct, NY-Sen would be a toss-up.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    andyroo read my comment elsewhere in this thread, Q did oversample Rs......
    I compared crosstabs between Q and Rasmussen who polled last Thursday and had Cuomo up 53-38.

    The single biggest difference was that Ras had Cuomo winning more crossover Rs than Q's results showed.

    But that difference was too small to account for the big gap in the toplines.

    The only other explanation is that the Q-poll had more Rs and fewer Ds in their sample than Rasmussen did.  Now, Rasmussen interestingly has revealed its turnout model in most recent polls, but for some reason not for NY-Gov last week.  So I can't say with certainty what the two turnout models really are, although informed guesses can be made through some rudimentary mathematical extrapolations of the crosstabs.  But ultimately the Q likely voter screen definitely picked up a Republican turnout surge and/or depressed Democratic base than were stronger than what Rasmussen is picking up.

    To put it bluntly, I don't buy the new Q-poll unless other polls corroborate it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Well see tomorrow...
    I'm sure they will release Senate numbers tomorrow...

    And Cuomo claims, for now, that he won't run a negative campaign.  Of course, highlighting Palladino's craziness may the "non-negative" way of doing it.

    This development cannot be helping us with our congressional delegation upstate, though, that's for sure!

    [ Parent ]
    I believe it and it isn't necessarily bad news.
    Cuomo's support is a mile wide and an inch thin.  He's universally known because of his name.  Some people probably even think he's Mario.  Whereas Paladino has either been mostly unknown or known primarily by negative news stories.  Through the power of throwing money left and right he can get people to know him on his own terms.  

    And he's rumored to be ready to go very heavily on the attack on Cuomo.  There is a divorce and years of service at HUD waiting to be exploited.

    The path for his victory is to get upstate and long island big and have base Democrats, particularly non-whites, sit on their hands downstate.  Then add in some non-hispanic ethnic catholic votes in the suburbs and outer boroughs.  And finally the fact the economy upstate is exceedingly horrible and the State Democrats have been a complete embarssment for the last four years.

    Now the good news is that the fact Palladino can win is known.  The Cuomo people were talking about this Palladino surge even before the Q poll which leads me to believe they see it on their own internals.  Why is this good?

    Because it's waking Democrats the hell up.  While it may be enjoyable to poke fun of the insanity that is the 2010.  But this is not the year any Democrat anywhere can sleepwalk to victory.  And Cuomo until recently has been treating this race as something he has already been coronated for rather than something he'll need to fight tooth and nail for.

    And a strong Cuomo campaign that fights is one that may actually be able to get Democrats out to vote.  Particularly in those tough House seats upstate.

    The alternative is Tom Souzzi.  He enjoyed his comfortable poll numbers and never saw the locomotive coming.  Now is when we need the bad news.  So we can adjust and do something about it.

    NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

    [ Parent ]
    Sestak down only 7
    with THAT Quinnipiac sample is heartening to me.  He may actually be narrowing the gap a little, although I expect he is still behind somewhere between, say, 3 and 7.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    On what basis...
    Pretty much every other poll has Toomey in the high single point range as well.  I am actually very skeptical of Corbett being up 15 at this point as pretty much every other poll has Toomey and Corbett having similar leads.  Maybe the most recent Onorato ad, which is painful to watch, is driving people away at this point.  

    Not saying Corbett is not up by 15 or that Toomey is up by 7, but I have a hard time with any poll that shows an 8 point gap between them when pretty much every other poll is not showing that gap.  This race has been the same for two months.  Toomey seems to be inching ever so slowly towards double digits.  This poll really does not refute that at all.  If anything, it shows Toomey will probably win by double digits in the end as Obama and the Democrats are toxic and most voters have made up their mind.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    The basis is just what you said
    Other polls, including a week-old Rasmussen poll, have had the Corbett and Toomey margins pretty close.  This one shows a much larger lead for Corbett.  

    I consider Quinnipiac to have one of the most aggressive likely voter models among pollsters.  So it is intuitive for Quinnipiac to show Corbett up 15 when Rasmussen shows him up 10.  For Quinnipiace to also show Toomey up 7 when Rasmussen shows him up 8 makes me think that Sestak has done something right in his campaign recently.  The DSCC is spending big here and Sestak has a good positive ad out.  It makes sense to me.

    Certainly none of this suggests that Sestak is down double digits.  That's just speculation on your part, consistent with your frequently expressed view of the election.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Also
    Not only does Sestak outpace Onorato by 8, he outpaces Strickland by 10 and Fisher by 13 in Q's polling.  Which were ridiculous because there's no way those two are down by 17 and 20.  Even Ras has those races at 7 and 13.
    [ Parent ]
    Progression
    Toomey has slowly, but surely, been widening his lead on Sestak.  If he continues at this pace, he will be over double digits by election day.  Toomey's lead has expanded roughly a point per month since July.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah but that all happened in an atmosphere
    where Toomey was spending heavily and Sestak was pretty much just raising money.  There's no reason to believe the margin is just going to grow and grow.  The enthusiasm gap should narrow at least some.  If the margin grew 1% per month with Sestak barely making a sound, why would that pace continue with Sestak going all out?

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    spiderdem is right, it's silly to expect Toomey to keep expanding his lead......
    At some point Toomey hits a ceiling and Sestak hits a floor, and the race stabilizes.

    And on top of that Ryan is wrong anyway, Toomey is not continuing to expand a lead.  The lead has been in the high single-digits for 2-4 weeks now, and it's stuck there.  That's about what I expect the final margin to be, 5-9 points.  Sestak needs a heck of an argument to make to voters in a clear, crisp message to do any better than that, and he needs both that argument and unexpectedly strong Dem turnout to get over the hump.  I no longer expect those things to happen.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Averages
    I agree there has not been movement over the last two weeks, but on average since July there is a clear movement that actually has not occurred in the Governor's race.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    I think Sestak has stopped Toomey's momentum
    and is holding ground now, down about 6-8 in almost all polling.  That's Lean R territory, but closer to Toss Up than Likely R.  

    I still hold firm that Pennsylvania is a state in which the democrats can and will close strongly, because they always do.  The state leans democratic according to the PVI, and if the generic ballot is really only R+2 (what pollster.com shows today), you'd expect this race to be competitive.  Now perhaps democrats have a unique problem in PA but if Sestak campaigns well, this one will probably go down to the wire.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    PA-3: Kelly 44 Dahlkemper 38
    Kelly 44
    Dahlkemper 38

    Franklin and Marshall has polled PA-3 using an RV model.  Not a huge F&M fan because they seem to push nobody.

    http://www.pittsburghlive.com/...

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    I personally had written off Dahlkemper already, so no surprise to me......
    I bought into your theory awhile ago regarding Dems cratering in certain states, including PA.  Dahlkemper was a big surprise winner to me last time, and I have a feeling a few years from now we'll look back on her 2010 defeat as something that should have surprised no one.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Big Surprise
    Her victory was a big surprise like Altmire's victory in 2006 was a big surprise.  Both of those races featured Republicans that were in relatively Republican districts and got caught flatfooted by aggressive Democrats.

    The defeats of Hart and English should serve as examples for Democrats in relatively Democratic seats in the D+0 to D+10 range.  If you do not have your act together and the Republican does you can lose a relatively Democratic seat.  


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Yup. And I want to clarify a couple things......
    My comments on Dahlkemper in no way impugn her, she's no mere accident making it into Congress and she's a fine Member.

    But she did need a lot of luck to win there in both the primary and November.  Her victory was no shock on election night because by a month out it was obvious she was in great shape to take the seat, but an incumbent has to be ready long before that to avoid an upset.

    In Altmire's case, he had the benefit of the NRCC successfully recruiting a favored candidate to serve as his wake-up call, and he was smart enough to act no differently when that favored candidate got trounced in the primary.  That's why Altmire should be fine while I think Dahlkemper MIGHT be a goner, although if she's got sufficient oppo material against what's-his-name and gets good attack ads on the air she still has a plausible path to victory.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Altmire is a great campaigner
    While Altmire has had some luck, he is just a good fit for the district and a great campaigner.  That is the reason he beat Hart in 2006 when very few saw that coming.  

    Dahlkemper is a good campaigner too.  The difference is that she drew a Republican that is stronger than many thought he would be.  I actually had this race Lean Democratic until about two months ago as Kelly came off as very weak initially.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I've found Dahlkemper
    to be a bit of a prick personally, with her whole, 'unemployment benefits encourage people to stay jobless' bs.  
    [ Parent ]
    I've found Dahlkemper
    to be a bit of a prick personally, with her whole, 'unemployment benefits encourage people to stay jobless' bs.  
    [ Parent ]
    Sounds about right
    A tossup, but with a slight edge to the Republican.  I have it as the 34th most likely Dem to Rep turnover.
    [ Parent ]
    pollster.com regression
    was updated yesterday.

    Obama approval rating:
    Disapprove - 50.5%
    Approve - 45.4%

    National Congressional ballot:
    Republicans - 45.1%
    Democrats - 43.0%

    This is the first time all year I have seen the congressional democrats running this far ahead of Obama in terms of absolute margin (-2 vs -5).  I think the democrats' advantage in local politics might be working it's way up to the national ballot a bit.  

    It should be noted that the national congressional ballot has closed by 3% in the past 2 weeks.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    If the tightening if the generic ballot is real...
    ... we should start to see some individual races post better numbers within a few weeks. It seems like local polls typically lag the generic a bit - for example, when the generic ballot cratered for Dems in August, it took till the end of the month for polls in individual races to show Dems inexorably behind.  
    [ Parent ]
    Or, the generic ballot tightening could reflect improvement already present in individual races......
    The generic ballot is not necessarily a leading indicator.  It might be, or it might not be.  Our incumbents are on the air and going hard negative with the right attack material, as they should and I'm heartened by it.  My suspicion is that the generic ballot tightening most likely simply reflects the effect of what's already happening as the result of ads and field campaigns.

    Tim Sahd's updated House race rankings on National Journal included quite a few blurbs on individual races that indicated that some Democrats had benefitted in polling from a head start in TV ads, and that some of those races likely would pull back the other way once the Republicans in those races finally got their ads up.  I think Sahd is probably right, and we might not see any significant trend going forward.  The generic ballot polling average as it is now, wtih Dems down 2-4 points, is probably what we'll see the rest of the way.  I hope I'm wrong, but I'll be surprised if individual campaigns are enough to move the generic numbers much more.  

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Just for kicks
    Here are the polls that have come out on the generic ballot in the past 7 days:

    Zogby - 44-43
    Ipsos/Reuters - 46-45
    Gallup - 46-45
    Rasmussen - 38-48
    YouGov - 46-45
    Zogby Internet - 41-47
    CBS/NYT - 38-40
    PPP - 45-44

    Prior to the period 9/14-9/20, the Republicans led in 5 polls out of the previous 7, now they trail in 5 of 8, although their leads are bigger than the D leads.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Starting to resemble NJ-gov 2009
    Not good news.
    [ Parent ]
    Huh? What are you talking about? How is this anything like NJ-Gov 2009? (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Christie shot up during the summer
    then seem to flounder in the fall. By November, the non-IVR polls were beginning to show a tie.  
    [ Parent ]
    couple iffy pollsters there
    I don't like that several of our leads come partly from Zogby (meh), Zogby Internet (definitely no), and a Gallup poll that's still using an RV model.

    That said, even if you don't look at those, the fact that PPP and the news agencies are showing us close or leading looks like positive movement.

    From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

    [ Parent ]
    Movement
    I think there has been some movement to the Dems for sure.  Not sure how much, but it's not negligible.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Stephen
    I've been following that closely.  The only bucket of cold water that I would throw on it is that a lot of the polls showing a tie or Dems up on the generic ballot have been RV polls.  Another one was the Zogby internet poll.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    A tie on generic ballot RV polls....
    ...is a hell of lot better than being down 5-9 on RV polls, which is what was happening in August.  This is palpable and important improvement.
    [ Parent ]
    No doubt.
    But likely voter polls still by and large have us down.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    TN-GOV: WSMV Poll Haslam 55%, McWherter 24%
    WSMV Channel 4 Nashville has released a poll by Crawford Johnson and Northcott that indicated Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam is crushing Mike McWherter, 55% to 24%. Poll conducted with 600 registered voters with a error of +/-4.

    The whole McWherter will bolster the Democratic vote to help down ballot races for the state legislature looks to be collapsing like a house of cards when a brick is dropped on it. I am having doubts McWherter will break 40% statewide. What is most telling about this race is that McWherter is MIA in Jackson/Madison County, his home, and has no visible  support; while Haslam is here all the time making visits, knocking doors, talking to the paper, and has a lot of visible support. What does it say about a candidate if he is willing to cede his home county to his opponent? All I  assume is that he is following the example of another notable Tennessee politician who took their home for granted, Al Gore.

    Democrat: TN-8

    TN looks like a killing field for Dems this year
    Lincoln Davis will be lucky to hold on.
    [ Parent ]
    That's what I've said from day 1
    Tennessee is going to be a bloodbath state for Team Blue this year because of the environment and the rightward turn of the state. TN-6 is beyond gone already, with TN-8 not looking strong based on what I'm hearing from wtndem and other news from there.  Davis released an internal (or maybe it was the DCCC) putting him up 9 or 10 points about a week ago.  Dejarlais isn't the greatest candidate, but in a district in which McCain took 64%, I don't think he has to do much to get over the hump.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    I'm not sure what StephenCLE
    is talking about regarding the Davis internal poll. There has been no Democratic internal poll.

    There has been a Republican internal poll showing the Republican down by 4! If you can't show yourself in the lead, you probably aren't in the lead. And Davis is probably up by at least 10 right now.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Lincoln should be able to hold on
    Lincoln Davis is tough and active campaigner with a voting record that is hard to spin against him. This being the case I believe he should be able to hold onto the seat, even if the top of the ticket is slaughtered and the TNDP becomes irrelevant. This would have held true in TN-8 had John Tanner sought re-election.

    I can't rule out Davis being upset in this environment, but the caliber of his opponent makes it a much less likely proposition than the environment makes it appear. It will probably be a race in the single digits on election night either way, but Davis should be on top.

    Democrat: TN-8

    [ Parent ]
    I personally
    think that all three Tennessee incumbents (Tanner & Gordon & Davis) could have won.


    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    They all would have had to campaigned hard and won by margins smaller than normal, but hey that's what happens when you get legit challengers. I don't blame Bart Gordon though, State Senator Tracey would have given him a serious race, with the only reward being redistricted out of his seat in 2012. Tanner on the hand is 65 and wanted to retire in 2008, so it was no surprise he retired in 2010.

    Democrat: TN-8
    [ Parent ]
    Gordon should have at least
    stuck around for one more term. Tanner should have retired in 2008, when it is would have been easier to hold his seat. And seriously, the State Legislature in 2000 couldn't have anticipated this lurch to the right... Looks like Davis will be screwed come 2012.

    And what do you know about him wanting to run for State Attorney General or some office like that?  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Well Yes and No
    The legislature drew great lines for the Congressional seats, while doing a poor job for the State House and Senate seats. Redistricting aside the biggest reason things are so bad in Tennessee is the absolute failure of the TNDP and the leadership in the General Assembly over the last 10 years to adapt with the times in terms of running campaigns, candidate recruitment, messaging, developing county level infrastructures, etc.

    Davis wanted to run for Governor, but I think he looked at the environment and the candidates, esp. Haslam, and decided it was a bad bet. I think he would have been competitive against Haslam, and could have legitimately ran to the right of Haslam as the "real conservative" in the race. McWherter is trying this angle, but it just looks forced and contrived. As far as AG goes, that is appointed by the Governor, we only elect the Governor and US Senators statewide.

    Democrat: TN-8

    [ Parent ]
    Scotty confirms Brown surge
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Apparently actually campaigning is a good idea.  Who'da thought?

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    AZ-07
    There was a the-sky-is-falling diary at dKos last week, saying Grijalva is endangered and needs our help.

    Naturally, I was eviscerated for pointing out the obvious, that Grijalva is totally safe and that there are more productive uses of our money.

    Kos
    No doubt, someone at Kos wanted you to send $ to Alan Grayson.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Funny, but true!

    [ Parent ]
    AZ-7
    I suspect a few D+5 to D+10 seats will fall this cycle, but I doubt this is one of them.  It would be interesting if the Republicans took this seat while not being able to take one of the Republican leaning seats, AZ-1, AZ-5 or AZ-8.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    That combination would be a disaster for Republicans......
    I was thinking just last night about how there are definitely seats you WANT to take over more than others, even though you don't really control that, based on how hard they are to hold the next time out.

    If Dems hold one or two known vulnerable seats in Arizona but Grijalva loses, that's a symbolic nicety for the GOP that evaporates quickly because Dems take back that seat 2 years later.  But if the GOP knocks out Mitchell or Kirkpatrick or Giffords, they can hold those indefinitely.

    In that vein, the 49 districts where McCain won have to be the GOP's biggest prizes.  Those are the districts that, once won by a Republican, are the easiest to hold going forward.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Trophy Seats
    The GOP might take some trophy seats, but as you stated, they will be hard to hold in 2012 without some creative redistricting.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    You have to think like a Republican though, here
    Grijalva is a co-chair of the Congressional Progressives, a caucus that is the bane of the Beck wing of the party's existence. KO'ing him would be a huge symbolic victory for the Tea Party, even if it would only be for two years. It would be the equivalent of a Democrat getting to Tom Price, Mike Pence, or Paul Ryan.

    The current AZ-07 would be an impossible hold for a Republican, but most redistricting maps I have seen for Arizona split in into an even more Democratic AZ-07 and a slightly Republican AZ-10. Maybe McClung will be drawn into the new 10th if she wins.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    New VA-05 Poll
    The Perriello campaign has released an internal poll showing them down by only 2: http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    Similar to the DCCC poll showing a similar spread from a few weeks ago. And similar to the GOP poll released a few months ago that showed Perriello down by 6 but didn't include the independent Tea Party candidate in poll. I think this is down to a statistical tie, much closer than the Survey USA polls.

    Perriello
    I think that a 2 point Hurt lead is probably a tad low as I have the race pegged at about 5-8 points for Hurt. This is a winnable race in the fact that Perriello has done a lot to energize his base. In this district there is little to no energy gap for his base. Problem obviously is if that is enough. He is going to need to run-up margins in Charlottesville and Albermarle County (suburbs of Charlottesville) in order to have any chance. In 2008 he won each with about 13,000 votes. The x factor is how much of a percentage of votes Jeffrey Clark will be able to steal from Hurt. As a disclaimer I am a resident of Virginia and have canvassed for him. In Albermarle county people are luke-warm to him and I heard some "I voted for him in 2008 but no way in 2010" and in Charlottesville city which is predominately African-American and young people (University of Virginia is there) people are very energetic about him and there are Perriello signs everywhere. Charlottesville city gave me some comfort that he may be able to pull it out. It is going to be really tough to do it but I give him a much better chance than Glenn Nye of winning. Their districts are pretty similar as far as PVI but Nye has done zilch to get his base energized. It would really suck to lose someone like Perriello but in every wave there is collateral damage.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    Too High
    I think a 5-8 point spread for Hurt is too high when the GOP internals gave him a 6 point spread without including the Independent Tea Party candidate. I think including the splinter helps Perriello close the gape by two to three points. So a GOP poll that was rigged to favor Hurt in several ways probably was covering up a four to three point lead. I know that GOP internals tend to overstate their candidate more than the Democratic internals. So I think we're back to two or so points, well within the margin of error. Keep up the good work!
    [ Parent ]
    You are probably right...
    As I had not thought about the GOP poll. The Survey USA polls which showed him getting blown out by 30 points were crazy. No incumbent would lose by that much unless if they were scandal plagued. I live in Jim Moran's district so it is a safe democratic seat. Perriello has taken a lot of very tough stances and has actively defended what he has done. He hasn't shied away from going into any lion's den and he is exactly the type of Democrat that we could use more of, someone with convictions that is not afraid to say who he is. I am not a huge fan of the in-your face style of politics like Michelle Bachman/Alan Grayson but Perriello just goes about his job works hard and gets stuff done. Losing him would be a major dagger. If he were to win it would show a lot of Democrats in like districts that they don't necessarily need to be blue dogs but that they need to proactively defend what they are doing and take their case to the people. Even if he loses I can see him with a political future such as running in 2012 against Hurt or even running for Governor in a crowded field in 2013.  

    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
    [ Parent ]
    WA-9 Smith internal
    This, my friends
    is exactly how you respond to a poll like yesterday's if you are really up. I believe Smith is safe, and I think that if most of the Democrats who we've seen bad polls for were leading and over 50, they would have done this as well.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Not necessarily true. In fact, most campaigns will shrug and not release in response even if...
    ...they're up big like Smith is.

    Private polling is "private" for good reason, you don't want to show your opponent your cards.

    The rule is you need justification for releasing, and you need to make a consciousness decision that you gain something and lose nothing by releasing.

    The Smith campaign made that calculation this time, but there are Dems in good shape who won't feel the same.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    NM-Gov
    POS has another poll out here - this one showing Martinez up 11 with leaners (52-41).  The GOP looks likely to emerge from this cycle with three prominent Hispanics - Rubio, Sandoval and Martinez.  Let's hope that this will help limit some of the damage from the anti-immigration talk (which I don't much like).
    http://nmpolitics.net/Document...

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    Denish would've won this in '06 or '08
    I could see Martinez on anyone's VP shortlist come 2012.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    All 3 will be on the shortlist
    I have trouble seeing her being picked this early tho. 2016 she is Pres/VP material. In 2012, she would seem way to close to Palin. Young woman who came out of nowhere to be elected Gov of a small state. While MArtinez is a lot smarter than Palin, she still would be ripped apart in the media. I think, at this point, Marco Rubio is very likely to be our VP nom in 2012. Martinez and Sandoval will be mentioned heavily, but Florida is much more important.  
    [ Parent ]
    PPP Poll: Lungren ahead 46-38
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    Lots of room for growth for Bera in 2 regards......
    First, he's largely unknown.  He's got the money to get on TV and define himself.

    Second, the internals show that he hasn't yet fully consolidated people of color, who by and large are unaware of him and haven't moved into his corner as strongly as people of color normally move for a Democrat.  In other words, the 38% understates his natural base vote.

    CQ moved this race from lean R to tossup on Monday, and others have had it among the Top 40 likely to flip.  So we've got a real shot here.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    AZ-07: lol
    For some reason that I can't get my head around and that has me concerned that runoff from an old mine is getting into Arizona's drinking water, but if you talk to conservatives around here they really super seriously believe that a down-the-line conservative "some gringa" Ruth McClung is going to beat Grijalva. The central issue seems to stem around Grijalva's support for a boycott of Arizona over SB 1070. Calling for a move that could be economically damaging to an already poor district might cost him some votes, though, unfortunately for McClung, I feel that AZ-07 is a sufficiently liberal and Hispanic district that enough people are going to be more upset for Brewer and the legislature for crafting the bill in the first place for Grijalva to not have anything to seriously worry about. Most of that outrage over Grijalva seems to be coming from outside his district (I keep seeing McClung signs in the 8th for some reason). Yet, McClung is apparently not a good enough campaigner to turn that anger into fund-raising dough.

    Ruth McClung will probably do somewhat better than Grijalva's last opponent, noted white-supremacist Joe Sweeney, who only got 32% of the vote. However, even with a small but uber-motivated base of White conservatives in Yuma and Pinal Counties, I just don't see how she has path anywhere terribly close to 50%.

    22, Democrat, AZ-01
    Peace. Love. Gabby.

    Rhode Island poll
    NBC10/Quest Research

    Caprio 36% (D)
    Chafee 24% (I)
    Robitaille 13% (R)
    Block 2% (Moderate)

    Lt. Gov:
    Roberts 44% (D)
    Healey 19% (I)
    Rogers 11% (R) - Rogers pulled out of the race after the poll was done

    Attorney General:
    Kilmartin 37% (D)
    Wallin 9% (R)
    McKenna 9% (I)
    Little 3% (Moderate)
    Rainville 3% (I)

    Secretary of State:
    Mollis 52% (D)
    Taylor 23% (R)

    CD-1:
    Cicilline 49% (D)
    Loughlin 26% (R)

    CD-2:
    Langevin 54% (D)
    Zaccaria 20% (R)

    http://www2.turnto10.com/news/...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    Looks like it will be a dem sweep in Rhode Island
    Glad to see one state isn't slipping away from us.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
    [ Parent ]
    AZ-GOV, AZ-05: Goddard only down 7 in swing district
    AZ-GOV in AZ-05: Harstad Strategic Research for Project New West
    Jan Brewer 52%
    Terry Goddard 45%
    Poll is of 509 likely voters

    A poll of only one congressional district (and one a couple of points more Democratic than the state as a whole at that) should probably be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, it's good to have something to go on besides those barrage of Rasmussen polls, which I don't completely trust. If you look back at '08, Rasmussen completely missed Obama gaining ground in Arizona in September, shooting out a "business as usual" 21-point McCain lead at the end of September while several other pollsters had already found a much closer race.

    This may yet be a single-digit race.

    22, Democrat, AZ-01
    Peace. Love. Gabby.

    Eh not to encouraging Obama came within 4
    and still lost the state by 9.  

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
    [ Parent ]
    I thought
    Rasmussen put out a poll like a week before the election showing Obama and McCain practically tied in AZ, that's why Obama made a last-minute push there.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    FL-22, Klein internal has him up by only 8
    http://www.sunshinestatenews.c...

    I guess adopting the Republican position on Bush's tax cuts hasn't enabled him to put away this race.

    I consider that good news.
    He only won by 10 in 2008.  To be up 8 or, hell, even 3 or 4 in this environment there is pretty good.  

    This district does not lend itself to a Democratic blowout.  It's rich and has a lot of Republicans.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Yup, in this environment and in that district, that link is ONLY good news. More......
    That link showed Klein up 48-40 in his internal, but the response by the West campaign indicated he, too, has Klein up, but by "only" 4.  And West's revealed internals have Klein at 41-40 favorability compared to 42-23 for West, which isn't bad for Klein at all coming from West's own internals.

    All this against a repeat candidate who got 45% last time in a Democratic wave year in a district that happily reelected a very conservative Republican in Clay Shaw until Klein knocked him out in the 2006 wave.

    I actually feel slightly BETTER about this race right now than I did before.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Now that you told me about the West internal,
    the good news of this poll becomes great news, because a West internal poll from April had West up 2.  This one is moving in the right direction of the good guys.  You can only take "Teh Crazy" so far.

    http://www.postonpolitics.com/...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    The exact quote in the Sunshine News story is...
    ..."Our internal tracking shows we're within the margin of error (4 points)."  That's from West campaign spokesman Josh Grodin.  It's possible the quote means "4 points" refers to the margin of error and it's actually closer than that, but I don't think so, I think it means they have West down 4 and that's within the margin of error.

    Your link is helpful, it shows that whatever attacks West has made on Klein have not hurt Klein at all, since his favorables are almost exactly the same in West's own polling.

    I hope Klein pulls this out, and I think he will.  If Sink can hang on, Klein will get more favorable lines going forward.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    FL 22
    I'm in this district and I think it's a total toss-up and the answer won't be known until the votes come in.  I would not want to bet either way.  West comes across like a black drill Sargent in a Hollywood movie.  That appeals to a lot of guys, but not so to women.  I'm figuring to see a HUGE gender gap in this race.  Keep in mind that this is also quite an old district - there may be some discomfort among older women about a black guy who not only seems to have a temper but advertises this fact.
    I think polls will be close until election day - I'd be very surprised to see either side pull away.  I don't see Klein being up as much as 8, but 4 sounds quite likely.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    A drill sargent....who tortured prisoners in Iraq.
    That totally nullifies any honor he ever had as an officer.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    To you
    To you, perhaps, but to Rambo-types that's actually a plus.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Never mind the dishonorable discharge.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    Again
    Again, that fits the 'Rambo' profile.  Rambo wouldn't win an election in a swing district during an ordinary year, but this is not ordinary.  The fact that his opponent is Jewish also sets up some interesting racial dynamics.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    Do you not realize the gravity of a dishonorable discharge?


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    Discharge
    I understand it, but given what everybody knows it's for, I don't think it will hurt him very much at all and may actually gain him some votes in this environment.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    I'm surprised that this is even close
    black guy who not only seems to have a temper but advertises this fact.
     

    Angry blacks don't get elected except in extremely partisan districts.

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

    [ Parent ]
    Not
    Not usually, but the way he has packaged himself is very different.  He doesn't seem like the caricature of an angry black - because of his military background he can mostly get away with it and turn it into a plus.  The image of a black drill sergeant is a guy who will yell in your face and call you a maggot, but has your best interest at heart.  This is less appealing to women, to be sure, which is why I predict a huge gender gap.

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    It isn't that appealing to elderly males either
    even those who served in the military.  They mostly saw blacks as grunt material.  If the Dems choose to racebait, they could probably get a lot of mileage on this.

    38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
    [ Parent ]
    Agreed, they're (surprisingly) decent numbers
    My understanding is West is adored by the Tea Party crowd, so it wouldn't surprise me if these polls are underestimating his base's enthusiasm. I suspect Klein barely eeks it out, but West could prevail with strong GOTV.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    These are decent results for Klein.  West can win this race, but I am really skeptical at this point.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    I don't know why
    you think that the liberal position is going to fit well in 435 districts. You can't clearly say that without knowing localized conditions etc.


    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    The Liberal position?
    It's the Democratic position.  From the platform to Obama to congressional leaders.  Do you see one Republican coming out in support of letting tax cuts for the rich expire?  Are they all from "wealthy districts"?
    [ Parent ]
    No,
    they aren't from wealthy districts. I remember reading a column that if the Senators were based on wealth of the country, there would be two Senators representing the very wealthy, instead of around 90. And do most voters vote in their best interests? No.


    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    And btw
    in case my response didn't make sense...there are some states where you might have to run against the Democratic position.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    Wow--Blanche is at 39%
    That's improvement!
    Now how much is Menendez
    going to spend to lift Lincoln from 35% to 44%? We need to pull out of Arkansas, except for the AR-01 race.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    If I were her, I'd go after Boozman's ears
    I mean come on:


    [ Parent ]
    Unfortunately
    she's probably in the midst of a bounce for voting against DREAM & DADT repeal yesterday.  Ugh.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    I agree, yes,
    but I would think it would probably make more liberal Democrats have a negative view of her. (not vote for her? I don't know) I mean, if she had voted against healthcare, I don't think she would have gotten a bounce. But DREAM and DADT, I'm sure are a very bad thing to support in Arkansas.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    Poll was taken Friday to Sunday

    [ Parent ]
    Barney Frank up by 10 (48-38) in MA-04!
    Highly doubt it.

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    Ehh, maybe...
    I have to imagine his opponent's base will be fired-up, but I still think Frank wins by about 15-20%.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Internal poll
    So add 5 to the lead.  And add 5 more for implausibility.
    [ Parent ]
    Frank +20
    seems right.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    Actually, that same link has a Frank campaign spokesman reveal...
    ...that Frank is up by "more than 20" in Frank's own internals.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Brown
    How did Scott Brown do in this district?  

    43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
    [ Parent ]
    IIRC, Brown did quite well in a significant part of his district...
    ...which is why Frank was so freaked out by Brown's win and almost gave up on health care all together.  That was reported by someone at TPM after Brown's victory.
    [ Parent ]
    He won it
    But only by a thousand votes or less. It's slightly more Democratic than the state as a whole. Patrick will win it unless Baker surges in the next month.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Barney is far to entrenched to lose
    or even get within  single digits
    [ Parent ]
    I had this race in the Likely column
    for a while back in April and May when there were reports that the republican base there was fired up.  I eventually let it slip out of consciousness without any polling to back it up, but this result isn't all that surprising to me.  Frank is one of the most visible, most liberal democrats in the whole House.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    NY-Governor
    Could Paladino's I am "F-ing nuts vote for me strategy" really work?  If I was Cuomo I would not attack him on his terms, but this staying above the fray thing could really backfire.  Paladino is a nutcase, but New York has a tendency for liking ego driven individuals.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    Cuomo needs to run an energetic, exciting campaign
    Competent probably isn't enough, even when the competition is liable to implode. To prevail, Paladino will either need a) 15% of Democrats or b) a 20-point lead among Indies. Both are pretty steep climbs.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    So, if you believe the Ras numbers, Schumer will out-perform Gillibrand by about 12%


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    SSP Daily Digest: 9/22 (Morning Edition) | 149 comments

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