So far, so good...

I'm glad the "Big D" org's are pumping up their war chests. I just hope they have no intention of sitting on any of it. :-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 14:29:32 PM UTC

Money

What this isn't showing, though, is the outside group spending.  I had no idea that it was so lopsided in favor of the GOP, but according to Politico it's 5 to 1.
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

I'm a little surprised the NRCC isn't doing better given that they are considered the favorites to take back the House.  But most of this shortfall is because of the lousy leadership over at the RNC and so donors are giving to the RGA instead and that isn't reflected here.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 14:37:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In this climate

I don't think they have any intention on sitting on much of it. They may be in debt by the end of this, but it will be so worth it. They are really picking up in there advertising and it is slowly, but surely closing the gap.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 14:47:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

the groups generally do spend themselves into debt

David has a little blurb he probably memorized by now about why this is so.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 17:13:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Outside groups are spending silly money...

Rove's American Crossroads hauled in $14M in August - 2/3rds of the haul of the total GOP haul. Then you have the TPX throwing around millions, the Chamber of Commerce, Club for Growth all throwing around tens of millions.  

On the Dem side you have the Unions - but if I was to wager, I'd say the GOP third party expenditures are 5x that of the Dems up to this point.  

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by: Roscoe @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:17:11 PM UTC

Politico did a story on this, the IE gap is HUGE and hurting us. The only good thing is...

...the IEs are focused disproportionately on Senate races over House races.

That really helps us, because frankly we're going to hold the Senate anyway.  If the surrogate groups were smarter, they'd shift money toward House races to serve as an equalizer for the NRCC and put a dagger in our hearts on House control.

As it is, I do think our House incumbents really are recovering somewhat, but they still have a lot of work to do even just to make a GOP takeover a tossup instead of likely.  But Dem retention is very plausible right now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:21:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The senate is for 6 years...

Those elected in November will serve out the remaining of Obama's time in the White House.  Toomey, Blunt, Paul, Rubio, Portman will all be there for the rest of Obama's presidency.  The house changes drastically every two years - there is no point to sinking in real money, because in two years time that money is needed again.  Besides 2012 will be a Presidential year, so House races then will be a different beast.  

Another area where there is huge spending difference is in Governors races.  Even not counting Whitman's $130M and counting, the RGA greatly outraised the DGA.  

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by: Roscoe @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:27:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wondering about the relative effectiveness of IE ads

Most seem generic. I don't see many IE ads that address local issues.

I mean, how many indies look at Nancy Pelosi and feel scared?

(FWIW, I don't remember any IE ads against Patty Murray. There are some up against Ron Wyden, but that'll be a waste.)

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by: tietack @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:29:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They can't be generic.

Here are two good (pro-Dem) IE's running here:

They have to be specific. They need to address the weakness(es) of the actual candidate.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:39:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, man, that ad attacking Heck is just KILLER!!!!!!......

That's just a great hit.  And using his own status as a doctor AGAINST him is amazing!  It turns his own bio around on him and says, "some 'doctor' YOU are, asshole!"

No wonder Titus has the polling momentum with ads like this one helping her.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:59:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The right-wing IE ads the past few weeks have been BETTER than any GOP candidate ads......

Virtually the only good ads helping Sharron Angle were by Crossroads; her own ads sucked.  Her only good ad was the immigration hit, but Reid's immediate answer was at least as good and probably better.

In other races I've seen, online, some great right-wing IE ads in recent weeks.  These are 30-second spots, clearly airing on real TV with real money behind them.  A bunch of the ones linked here on SSP digests are among the ones I'm talking about.  Good production values, good visuals and script, crisp and clear and relevant messaging.

Some Republican Senate candidates and a few House candidates are going to owe their victories to these groups.

The left just isn't answering at all.  Nobody is motivated to give money this year, everybody is sitting on their hands.  It looks like we're going to have to lose soemthing this time to motivate our people for the next time around.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:55:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank you for the info

wish I had the time to scan more of the ads. All I can say is that the IE I've see here in the NW has been generic.

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by: tietack @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 16:03:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The only Angle ad that might have hurt...

Was her immigration ad last week, but Reid responded within 24 hours... And considering I only saw her ad once on TV in the last week while I saw Reid's response at least 7 times, I think it may have been blunted quite well.

Yes, the Crossroads ads have been hard... But so have Patriot Majority's. That's why Angle's favorability ratings are now so low.

So I won't say the left isn't responding. Patriot Majority, AFSCME, and EMILY's List have already dropped big bucks here.

What I will say is that we're not seeing the kind of IE feeding frenzy on the left that we see on the right at this point. I have no clue what MoveOn is doing. I don't really know what PCCC is doing.

It seems we'll really need the party committees and unions to keep spending to keep up with the right-wing attacks in places where the candidates aren't flush with money (like Reid is here).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 17:05:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

atdleft, Nevada is unique, in most places IE ads are one-sidedly attacking Dems......

I know what you're talking about in Nevada, I've noticed that Patriot Majority and the unions have gone whole hog after Angle and Heck.  IE ads might even be heavier on our side than theirs in Nevada.  And you can see yourself it matters, as your candidates are overperforming given the state and national climate.

But everywhere else IE ads are hammering Dems with little or no IE response from the left.  In some cases that's not putting our team at a disadvantage but just leveling the playing field where our candidates have a huge cash advantage, but that's the very problem, that we have tossups where our cash advantage is getting negated.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 17:32:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ironically in MN

Even with all the Target and Best Buy happenings, the GOP IE's are getting outspent by DFL IE's.  The total listed in the paper two weeks ago was roughly one million to 1.3 million.  

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by: Andrew @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 18:18:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But that also hurts House races...

That are in the same states as the Senate races. They must think they get more "bang for the buck" with the Senate races.

HOWEVER, I also bet most of this money is being spent on TV ads. And yes, that sucks. However, it still means GOP infrastructure is left in shambles. A number of state Reep parties don't have good field operations. And last I checked, TV can't get people to the polls.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:34:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I believe

I believe both the RGA and American Crossroads are putting $ into GOTV efforts.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:41:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Their efforts are weak and inefficient......

The Republicans have grown to detrimentally rely on the national party for field operations everywhere.  Rove et al. built that model in the Bush campaigns, and it was smart and effective beyond the Republicans' own wildest dreams in 2004.

But McCain let the machinery go to hell in 2008, and now Michael Steele is running it into a ditch.

Having 3rd-party groups try to fill the void is not going to be effective.

None of this will change the macropolitical result on election day, but some tight races will go Dem that would not have otherwise.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:50:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And it's terrible long term...

Because Karl Rove probably isn't interested any more in building up state party infrastructure.

It seems that in many ways, the two parties have reversed roles on field work. In 2004, Bush won thanks to all the money the RNC lavished on state parties for "turnout machines". Kerry had to rely on the unions and 527s like Americans Coming Together to dump money on GOTV. And while the unions are always around, all those 527s left nothing behind after the election.

Now, it looks like total role reversal. Howard Dean started implementing "The 50 State Strategy" for the DNC in 2005, then built it up some more in 2006, then Obama ran it on steroids in 2008, and now a number of state and local Dem parties have some real infrastructure. Meanwhile that vaunted "GOP turnout machine" showed some rust in 2006, then in 2008 McCain just let it fall apart. Republicans are now banking on an "enthusiasm gap", but many people don't just magically vote because someone on TV says there's an "enthusiasm gap".

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 17:14:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

and they cant coordinate, correct?

So having all of these groups trying to do the field work of what was once just the RNC will end up in some sloppiness and double dipping of voters.  (Not that someone receiving 10 GOTV calls is really that bad a thing.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 18:23:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Dems hold the House, everyone will point fingers at Michael Steele because...

...the RNC is deadweight this cycle and will have been responsible for what's shaping up to be non-existent GOTV by the bad guys.

The biggest disparity is in field campaigns, and the NRC usually cuts fat checks to state parties to pay for it but can't and isn't this time.  So we're going to have a field program advantage to offset some of the organic voter interest gap we're suffering.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 15:24:42 PM UTC

by "NRC"

do you mean RNC, or NRCC, or an organization I'm not thinking of?  

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

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by: gabjoh @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 17:02:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably RNC...

They're the ones who used to cut the fat checks to state parties for field activities.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 17:06:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK, makes sense. (n/t)

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

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by: gabjoh @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 17:10:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yah, RNC, I had a moment of temporary dyslexia! (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 18:57:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]