Mason-Dixon for various Idaho newspapers (9/13-15, likely voters, no trend lines):
Walt Minnick (D-inc): 46
Raul Labrador (R): 36
Mike Washburn (L): 1
Dave Olson (I): 1
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±5%)
Mason-Dixon dips its toes into the warm Idaho waters for the first time this cycle, finding frosh Democrat Walt Minnick in good, though not bulletproof, shape in this deep red district. To recap all of the polls we've seen of this race, Greg Smith & Associates released a poll back in June showing Labrador ahead by 36-24... which was the first and last time that Labrador led in any publicly-released polling, as his campaign followed up a month later with an internal poll showing Minnick up by 37-27. And local pollster Greg Strimple, who usually works for Republicans, pegged Minnick's lead at an eye-popping 52-29 in August.
Minnick sports a very impressive 54-16 favorability rating, while Labrador is not hated at 31-10. (41%, though, recognize Labrador's name but feel ambivalent about him.) Minnick wins 26% of Republicans and leads Labrador among independents by 48-27. In recent days, Minnick's been going hard negative on Labrador, hitting him for his record as an immigration attorney. (I disagree with my ex-boss Greg Sargent's take that Minnick is airing the ad out of desperation - I think he's just trying to rough Labrador up as much as possible before the race has a chance to tighten, which could precipitate a flood of outside money into the district.)
Meanwhile, we have another glance at the gubernatorial numbers:
Keith Allred (D): 29
Butch Otter (R-inc): 45
Ted Dunlap (L): 3
Pro Life (I): 2
Jana Kemp (I): 1
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±3.9%)
You bet I'm Pro Life! I didn't realize that the most bizarrely-named dude in politics was back at it (yes, the man legally changed his name to Pro Life in order to run against Jim Risch for Senate in 2008 - backstory here), but it warms my heart to know that there's no quit in him.
These numbers are actually pretty unspectacular all-around for Butch Otter, whose edge on Democrat Keith Allred has been cut in half over the course of the year. I'm not saying that Allred has a chance (though he's certainly a very solid candidate), but Otter is on track to under-perform.
Meanwhile, in the Senate race, incumbent Republican Mike Crapo leads Dem Tom Sullivan by 61-17, while GOP Rep. Mike Simpson (who has at least some degree of goodwill from SSP for being so candid with his opinions on Bill Sali in past years) leads Dem Mike Crawford by 51-23. |
