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MI-Gov: Yet Another Bernero Blowout; SSP Moves to Likely R

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 3:33 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (9/18-19, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parentheses):

Virg Bernero (D): 31 (28)
Rick Snyder (R): 52 (44)
Undecided: 16 (28)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

PPP's poll of the Michigan gubernatorial race is a pretty clear indicator this one has moved out of play for the Democrats, Virg Bernero's best efforts notwithstanding. A look at all polling shows that over the month of August, after the primary, this gradually moved from a lead for Republican Rick Snyder in the mid-teens, up to the low 20s.

Not only is there the problem of Bernero being weighed down by Jennifer Granholm's unpopularity (Bernero's at 28/43), but as PPP's Tom Jensen points out, this is one GOP primary where they actually managed to shepherd through their most electable candidate (a Bernero/Mike Cox race would have been interesting, but we won't get to find out). Snyder has 43/28 faves, including an amazing 53/17 among independents. With this race probably having already landed on the wrong end of DGA triage decisions, we're moving this race to Likely Republican (from Lean Republican).
Crisitunity :: MI-Gov: Yet Another Bernero Blowout; SSP Moves to Likely R
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MI-Gov: Yet Another Bernero Blowout; SSP Moves to Likely R | 19 comments
Rasmussen has this race at 51-38
Going... Going... Gone...
The Governor's race is pretty much over.  The interesting races are downballot.  The SOS and AG's races appear to be somewhat competitive.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
Stick a fork in Scott Brown
There is no way he gets reelected with this bs he's pulling

http://www.senate.gov/legislat...

Maybe he wants to run for Prez instead?


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I don't
I don't see that.  He could easily frame this as being against procedure, not against DADT.  He has to worry about a primary from the right flank as well.  I think, given the tough spot he's in, he's playing it exactly right.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
You have no idea how unpopular DADT is in here
It's probably the equivalent of an Iowa senator voting against farm subsides and Ethanol
[ Parent ]
OTOH
He could just as easily spin a vote for DADT to the base as being for the troops. Anyone to the right of him is DOA in Massachusetts anyway.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13
[ Parent ]
Nope, not working...
Not if MA Dems are smart enough to turn the "procedure" argument on its head and argue that Brown is more interested in playing politics with soldiers lives than supporting the troops.

In fact, I think a number of Dems should use this NOW to hammer the GOP. But especially with Scott Brown running in MA, he's just digging a hole and the Dems should start softening him up over this.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
It won't hurt Brown more than marginally
There are about three different obvious arguments Brown can use against this:

1. I wanted to wait until the Pentagon has completed its review to pass DADT repeal

2. Democrats were playing politics by also attaching the DREAM immigration act to this completely unrelated bill, so I voted it down on principle

3. Winning smile I wouldn't worry about that...

This is not going to be even an minor issue in 2012. Believe me, it'll still be all about the economy then

[ Parent ]
I don't know what will be the issues in 2012
But 1) it isn't a repeal. the legislation gives the pentagon the authority to repeal after a thorough study so your first point is irrelevant
1)a. Seriously.DADT is extremely unpopular in here. Brown can't vote against the wishes of 90% of his constituents and cover with a lame excuse like that

2)DREAM act also pretty popular. and again, not a good excuse.

3) It's much more than a minor issue. particularly if  the economy gets better he won't take any of the credit because he voted against everything and, again, DADT is hated in Massachusetts  

[ Parent ]
Bernero vs. Cox
Definitely would've been the best match-up for the Democrats.  Part of me wishes this is how it turned out.  At the same time, I don't think I could have tolerated Cox being my governor.  I seriously would've contemplated relocating if he had won.  So the other part of me is relieved we won't end with a far-right guy as governor.  Unfortunately, I think Snyder will not govern as a moderate in order to prevent a primary challenge in 2014.

I think Snyder will win but I stand by my feeling that it will be closer than expected...something like 52%-47% or 53%-46%.  Bernero will probably get most of the undecided voters.  Unfortunately, it probably won't be enough to win.    

Snyder shows Gov's how to win...
Sink is doing it in Florida right now as well.  White should pick it up in Texas.

Run as a non-threatening executive and completely downplay your party affiliation.  

Bernero is hyper partisan, Scott is trying to run against Obama.  Perry is far right Republican.  

I think folks are tired of the hyper-partisanship, especially for a position such as Governor.  

Good point...
It probably explains why Sandoval is holding onto the lead here in Nevada while Whitman's numbers are falling again in California. Brian Sandoval has tried to "stay above partisan politics", and he's running away from Sharron Angle as fast as he can. (Not to mention, he took her on in 2003 over Kenny Guinn's famous budget battle royale.) Meg Whitman, OTOH, has been taking on such polarizing issues as Prop H8 as well as unpopular positions like suspending Cali's AB 32 climate law. Perhaps not even all her money can save her at this point.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
You know what really sucks
Us winning so big in 2006 riding that wave of disaster means that we got totally fucked in 2010 as they ride this disaster back, just in time for redistricting. And  PA and MI just cycled right on through parties with us winning in 2002 and them getting their two-terms.

We just cant ever win.......

If
we can hold both the state houses in PA or MI we might be able to push through incumbent protections maps. Though right now that's more doable in MI than in PA where the GOP is poised to take the state house and push through another dummymander.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Well, given that we're going to take NY-Gov and (probably) FL-Gov
And we have a decent shot of keeping the state senate in NY (even if not, it'll be incumbent protection, which is what we need there more than trying to take out the last 3-4 Republicans in the state).

Also, if we can take CA-Gov, we'll be able to knock off at least 3-4 Republicans, maybe more depending on how ambitious the California legislature wants to be.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
PPP really goes off the deep end
This is PPP's most wild sample yet.  Fully 1/3 of Obama voters will stay home and vote for nobody relative to Mccain voters.

What this means:

In 2008 Obama got 2,872,000 votes
In 2004 Kerry got 2,479,000 votes
33% of 2.872 is 948,000

So PPP is saying that not only is the quivalent of every single person who voted for Obama but not Kerry is not going to vote... but that about 16% of the Kerry voters will not vote either.  This is an amount greater than the number of people who voted for Kerry but not Gore.

PPP's sample says none of these people will change their mind to vote for a Republican.  PPP is saying turnout will not be "different than 2008", they are saying zero Obama voters who didn't vote for Gore will vote at all.

In 2006, 3.8million Michigan voters turned out (for the Gov race). About 4.8 turned out for Bush/Kerry in 2004... so the midterm turnout was about 80% of the previous Prez election.  (It was about 85% between 2000 and 2002.)

So this sample says that if 80% of Mccain voters show up in November, about 56% of Obama voters will.

It's just not going to happen.  Bernero may be beaten badly, but it's not going to because of a no-show rate harkening back to before women got the right to vote.  It will be because some Obama voters change their mind and vote for Snyder.

Obama voters
I wonder how many Obama voters are not saying they voted for him.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
That is an unknown question
but as with any other aspect of polling, the more people lie, the more the whole idea of polling becomes a useless exercise.
[ Parent ]
MI-Gov: Yet Another Bernero Blowout; SSP Moves to Likely R | 19 comments

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