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Dems Lead in Five Internal Polls

by: James L.

Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 6:24 PM EDT


AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (9/13-16, likely voters):

Chad Causey (D): 46
Rick Crawford (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)

DE-AL: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/15-18, likely voters):

John Carney (D): 50
Glen Urquhart (R): 32
(MoE: ±4.9%)

FL-25: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the DCCC (9/12-19, likely voters):

Joe Garcia (D): 40
David Rivera (R): 33
Craig Porter (W): 2
Roly Arrojo (T): 2
(MoE: ±4.9%)

The "W" stands for Whig (no joke).

GA-08: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/13-15, likely voters):

Jim Marshall (D-inc): 48
Austin Scott (R): 36
(MoE: ±4.9%)

ND-AL: Garin Hart Yang for Earl Pomeroy (9/10-12, likely voters):

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 46
Rick Berg (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)
James L. :: Dems Lead in Five Internal Polls
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Dems Lead in Five Internal Polls | 108 comments
FL-25
another pick up opportunity.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Definitely is now...
REALLY good news. The GOP really screwed up on FL-25.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Sometimes a good candidate on paper has dirt come out, it happens. But...
...it's a shot of good news for us for sure.

I think Garcia does end up winning this.  He's a great candidate who proved he can run close here, and Rivera is personally very flawed.  Meanwhile, Mario's switching districts I think, in my brainstorm of this very moment, is more telling than we realized.  Why switch districts like that THIS cycle?  No it wasn't as bad for us when he decided, but he survived '08, this cycle would be better than '08 for the GOP for sure, and there was no indication Garcia wanted to go after him again this time.  And he had to survive only once more before new boundaries would be drawn.  For all that, he still switched, and I think he was on to something about FL-25.

I feel increasingly confident about a pickup here regardless of the environment.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
DE-AL, FL-25, GA-08, and ND-AL seem reasonable on the face of it
Maybe a bit too optimistic for Garcia, Marshall, Carney, and Pomeroy, but reasonable nonetheless.

Don't know if I buy AR-01 right now, Blanche's performance is going to be atrocious in the first I'd think (we should assume that Lincoln will lose the district by 10 points if the polling so far has been correct, which is going to be pretty hard for Causey to overcome).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Lincoln
will do the best here.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
AR-01
is the same district she represented for 4 years (she retired from the house in 96 to take care of her newborn twins before running for the senate 2 years later.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I disagree
I'll grant that this used to be Lincoln's old district, but from what I can tell from the primary, she didn't do all that well in AR-01 (from what I can tell, she seemed to do better in AR-02, where there was a larger black population).

Incidentally, I think she's going to do best in AR-02 rather than in AR-01 given the trend-line

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
she did poorly
against a more liberal candidate in Halter and thus she'd do worse against more conservative Boozeman?

Nope, not logical.

[ Parent ]
Halter was also polling better than Lincoln statewide
Lincoln will do poorly for two reasons:

1. National Democrats (ie, those tied to Obama in any way) have become really unpopular in Arkansas, and particularly in AR-01 and AR-04.

2. If Lincoln wasn't doing that hot in her own home district against Halter, then it suggests that there isn't a whole lot of love for Blanche in that district. It doesn't bode well for her performance in AR-01.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I'm afraid ND-AL is a big surprise to me. What I've read before this poll suggested...
...that Pomeroy might be a goner.

If Pomeroy survives, then we might very well hold the House, since he's been on my informal "goner" list.  I say "informal" because I haven't done a race-by-race breakdown like my fellow SSPers here, but I wrote off Pomeroy awhile ago.

These other internals don't surprise me.  We could lose some of those seats anyway, but at least the internals don't surprise me.

But Pomeroy leading surprises me.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I've talked to others who feel that way too
And I'll grant, I belong to the more optimistic part of the SSP community in that I think we're actually reasonably likely to hold the House and that the Republicans take no more than 5-6 Senate seats from us (really, I think 4-5 but I could still easily see a sixth seat go) and that we still take one of Alaska, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Florida (though maybe that's being unrealistic).

I suppose there's good reason to believe that Pomeroy is going down, ND is a Republican state, he's a Democrat, it's a not friendly year for the Democrats, and Hoeven at the top of the ticket is a really daunting prospect.

Having said that, one thing that Pomeroy does have in his favor is that he's an incumbent in a state with only 3.6% unemployment.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Still, he's as much an institution in ND as the others
and he's not really controversial.  He survived 1994 as a freshman, so it's not like he isn't seasoned.
[ Parent ]
yes but
Beebe will be dominating (maybe enough to offset Lincoln)

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
[ Parent ]
I think the federal senate race is going to be more determinate of AR-01's fate
Beebe could help, but a House race shares a lot more in common with a Senate race, it's easier to see Lincoln dragging a House candidate down than Beebe raising a House candidate up (although you do raise a good point, and that could help us in AR-01).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Agreed. I don't know...
How Arkansas lists races on its ballot, but I'm used to US House coming right after US Senate. And even putting that aside, I've noticed that voters are more likely to think of US Senate & House as a "ticket" than make any Governor-US House connection just because US Senate & US House are both federal offices.

So perhaps Beebe can help, especially if he boosts Dem turnout, but it may not be enough to completely offset "The Blanche Effect".

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Jim Marshall.
I'm from Georgia (I am going to be voting absentee in the GA election this year). It's hard for me to see Marshall losing. He's kind of an institution, and Roy Barnes (D) in the GA-GOV race seems to be holding back anti-Democrat feelings in GA right now.

The sense I got from Georgians is kind of like, "If Roy Barnes is a Democrat, then Democrats can't be all bad."

Perhaps related, I haven't gotten any real sense that Tea            Party mania is in Georgia. At least not in the part of Georgia where I'm from. The primaries there were kind of a low turnout, bland affair. More usual than anything else.

[ Parent ]
what part of ga are you from?
i have to think the tea-party is strong in north ga
[ Parent ]
I Thought the DCCC Reducing AZ Buys Was Good News
THE SKY IS FALLING.
As a RuralDem post said... Democrats are leading in the South. Well those must be rubbish numbers...

Now in reality, they make perfect sense. Where are the numbers from Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Pennsylvania?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Good question.
These are states where turnout for the Senate & Governor races may very well affect the House races there.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
My buddy and I in college used to joke about resurrecting the Whig Party....
I'm glad someone has finally taken up the mantle of 54-40 or fight!!!
Whigs
Shouldn't Daniel Webster up in FL-08 be running on the Whig line?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Actually, Clay (Whigs) ran against "54-40 or fight"
back in (18)'44. However, the Whigs of the time were perhaps more for government intervention (e.g. National Bank, "American System," tarrifs, etc.).

OTOH, if the South was successful in the Civil War, there's speculation that their establishment party would have been the Whigs.

[ Parent ]
I'm holding out for a resurgence of the Federalist Party.

Me too.
If the Federalists came back, I would probably join.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
From what I've learned of your politics
I could see you as a "John Adams Federalist" back in the Revolutionary day!
[ Parent ]
If I get bored or wealthy
I'll just form the ultimate ambiguous party that'll mainly oppose candidates without major party opponents: The Alternative Party.

Although the number one flaw to any such party, making sure it's not taken over by crazy people (see the Independence Party of New York)

[ Parent ]
Personally
I'm still waiting for the Monster Raving Loony Party to come to this side of the pond. Absent them, I'd opt for the Pirate Party.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Rhinoceros Party
I am a fan of their Canadian cousins, the Rhinoceros Party.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Ha. Whigs? Federalists?
How about Bullmoose? A Republican spinoff party that was Progressive. T.R. came in 2nd 98 years ago. The mind boggles.
[ Parent ]
Keeping with...
...my policy of handling partisan polls (taking 5 points away from the candidate of the party that sponsored the poll and adding 5 points to opposing party's candidate), the only two of these five polls I feel good for the Dems are DE-AL and GA-8. And those aren't really any surprise. I would've said the Dems are going to win those two races without even researching them.

It would be nice if the Dem can win FL-25, but I'd have to see more evidence that he can do it.  

Good call on the ±5% rule
Clearly that's applicable in every case. Just like how when Glenn Nye released those polls two years ago showing him trailing by 5, he ended up losing to Thelma Drake by 15% in the end.
[ Parent ]
Also
Just like how Travis Childers released a sham of a poll claiming a 1-point lead on Greg Davis in the 4/22/09 special election, which Childers ultimately lost by 9%.
[ Parent ]
...
Uh, Glenn Nye didn't lose.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Oh!
Sarcasm

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
for every Nye and Childer
you have Madia +3 nd Kryzan +10!
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

That is why polls have margin of error ... not only so pollsters have a legitimate out (by not pushing the undecideds too hard) but also because people finally decide and vote.  

[ Parent ]
No...
In fact, having a really large number of undecideds close to an election is seen as being the sign of a bad pollster or polling sample.

Margins of error exist for statistical reasons that are completely unrelated to whether or not "pollsters have a legitimate out" or voting at all.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
...And the Nye and Childers polls should have been taken with a heavy grain of salt as well. Just because they ultimately won their races could've just meant something changed in their favor between the time those polls were taken and their elections.  
[ Parent ]
So you're saying
That the Childers and Nye polls were probably wrong, but they got lucky? I'm not going to go spelunking through the archives here to find two dozen polls similar to those two, but rest assured I could. And would you still then hold to your theory?
[ Parent ]
David is right, Icarus, your comment is an absurd "comeback." You can say the same about...
...every poll before October of an election year, or even IN October!  You can say that about Republican polls as much as Democratic ones.

All these polls have margins of error and confidence intervals, so those caveats attach automatically.  And Dem and GOP pollsters can disagree about the likely voter universe and turnout models to produce differences.  But ultimately these Dem internals are just as reliable as released GOP internals.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
.
Imagine:

1. Republican internal shows their candidate leading 50-45.

2. Democratic internal shows their candidate leading 50-45.

If you apply this ridiculous plus and minus 5 bulls***, each candidate's poll will show them losing 50-45. We're still left wondering what the reality is of the race.

The better approach is to split the difference of the polls and say that each candidate is garnering anywhere between 45 to 50 percent of the vote.

Never lock yourself into saying that a single candidate has an exact percentage of the vote. Always phrase in terms of saying that the candidate has somewhere between this amount and this amount of support with whatever amount of confidence that can be inferred by the size of sample.

I.E. RIck Berg would have anywhere between 40 and 48 percent of the vote and Earl Pomeroy would have between 42 and 50 percent of the vote (with somewhere between 90 and 95% confidence of those numbers).

The real numbers could be any combination of numbers that you can make from those ranges - anywhere from a Pomeroy lead of 50-40 to a Berg lead of 48-42. The only problem with this is that the further you go from 46-44 the less reliable the number become. It is all a bell curve. The numbers are more likely to be real the closer they are to the given data. So you have possibilities like a 48-46 Pomeroy lead being more realistic than, say, a 48-42 Berg lead.

Besides, a lead of any kind is always going to produce more outcomes favoring the candidate that is leading than the candidate that is losing.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Also.
Read this:

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I linked that column here awhile back, and it's a great one. I think the bottom line is...
...we have to just look at the totality of polling and other tea leaves for every race.

And regarding how to treat internal polling, I think an informed understanding of the given district, of voting behavior among demographic groups predominant in the district, and of the nature of polling itself all are in order.  There is no numerical discount that's appropriate to apply, just take polling at face value and apply the smell test to see if it seems like it's in the ballpark of what makes sense.  And if Dave Democrat says he's up 50-45, and Rick Republican says no, he's up 50-45, don't "average" them or do any other silly thing, instead just say "OK, it's a tossup."  That's good enough for understanding the race, the exact numbers of the polling aren't instructive of what happens on election day anyway.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
.
I suggested the 'average' only because it is better than some arbitrary five point penalty. Obviously I agree that both are crude methods, though.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
May be true for general internals
but it is not true for released internals, because you only release the good polls.  There is nothing that prevents a pollster from asking the head-to-head question, then asking a loaded question, then asking the head-to-head again, and releasing the latter.

Or releasing a poll that is a clear outlier in favor of your candidate.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
But that's where common sense kicks in
This is true of partisan and nonpartisan polls. Yes, it's definitely the case that polls released by campaigns/committees can very well be the release of a message-tested poll in which the numbers aren't a true reflection of the race. That's where you start using your common sense about the area being polled, the candidates, and whatever you might have heard prior to .

For example, if Blanche Lincoln's campaign released a poll out of Arkansas showing her only 3-4 points behind Boozman, I'd take one look at that poll and laugh.

However, if Harry Reid (for example) released a poll showing him 3-4 points ahead of Sharron Angle, maybe it's somewhat optimistic, but it's clearly not out of the ballpark either and should be taken more seriously.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
THANK YOU for pointing out the bell curve in the range of error!!! This is a major screw-up of political reporters in addition to...
...their not understanding in the first place what the margin of error really is--so many of them think it refers to the margin between the candidates instead of each unique data point!

The bell curve aspect of the range of error is something that I bet most political reporters don't realize even if they're aware the margin of error applies to each data point separately.  There is a misconception out there that anywhere along the range of error is equally likely, when that's not true.  I'm sure plenty of SSPers have the same misunderstanding.

Political reporters should be required to learn the basics of the science of statistical sampling.  It's really not that hard, you don't have to be a math wiz to grasp the basics.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
.
You know, I've long thought that someone should be given a weekly front page post here about how to understand and analyze polls the proper way so that we can elevate the discussion in the comments. Something along the lines of what was done for awhile with the long detailed posts post-election with maps and analysis, etc. etc. etc.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
.
For what its worth, I don't think the Republicans will gain the house this year.

If you take JUST Nate Silver's model and look at what seats he has changing hands, there are easily ten to fifteen going to the Republicans that I just don't see based on current polling (in no particular order):

CO-3     John Salazar
SD-1     Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin
MO-4     Ike Skelton
WI-8     Steve Kagen
KY-6     Ben Chandler
TN-6     Lincoln Davis
AL-2     Bobby Bright
GA-8     Jim Marshall
SC-5     John Spratt
WV-1     Mike Oliverio
PA-12     Mark Critz
and, thought I'm probably alone in this one:
FL-8     Alan Grayson

plus one pickup that Nate has as a Republican hold:

LA-2     Joseph Cao

If you give Republicans every other seat that Nate thinks they'll pick up (such as Pomeroy) that gives a 225-210 Democratic-controlled House of Representatives.

Granted, I also think that Republicans will probably win the overall popular vote. This is because I believe that instead of expanding their support into swing districts, Republican have simply deepened their support in places that they already hold.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Salazar is down 6
in Republican polling and did not rebut to my knowledge.  Suggests he's down to me.

Kagen is down 10 in an Ayers McHenry poll, and did not rebut to my knowledge.  Same thing.

Spratt is tied in a Republican internal, but my gut tells me he's going to have a hard time here, largely because of his "yes" vote on HCR in a red Southern district.

Otherwise I agree with you, including FL-08 (so you're not alone).  I love the fact that we haven't seen anything from Webster after Grayson's weird poll showing a double digit lead.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
.
I can easily replace those three with others.

Howabout:

Pomeroy, Teague, and Patrick Murphy?  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I can't completely discount Rasmussen
enough to buy that Pomeroy is really up based on his internals.  I think Murphy may be running slightly behind or even and he's in what may be a top-down implosion state.  

Teague I suspect may really be up slightly.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Pomeroy is gone IMO
Teague is almost gone, and Murphy is a slight underdog.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Teague is not almost gone
There's been a non-partisan poll giving Teague a 2-point lead and a DCCC poll giving him a 7 point lead (I'll grant the DCCC poll should be taken with a grain of salt, but there is corroboration that Teague is not a dead duck).

As a New Mexico resident, my feel for the race before those polls came out was that Teague was a slight underdog (Teague is reasonably popular in the district) but I'm revisiting that assumption right now (although I'd still err on thinking that Teague is the underdog).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
In almost any other year
Teague would have won, he is a very strong candidate.  But not this year.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
I'm not saying that Teague can't lose
Even in a neutral year, it'd be difficult, but to say that Teague is "almost gone" when there is at least one non-partisan poll giving him a small lead, a partisan poll giving him a decent lead, and no polls saying anything to contradict either one.

To say that Teague is "almost gone" is a joke, based on any reasonable estimation of the race.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
And that shows
that you either don't know or don't care about the polls that show otherwise.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Well
I more or less ignore released internal partisan polls.  There is no accountability with them.  

I do consider PPP and Rasmussen seriously, because both of them have a track record of accuracy, of course, with the caveat that their likely voter pools could be wrong.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
I think you are 250% right...
but...Siena (yes Siena) polled NY-20 and found Murphy +17. There are other outside conditions before looking at a poll, and you would know Murphy is probably up.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Oh I was talking Patrick Murphy not Scott
Scott Murphy will be reelected.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
And sorry if that earlier comment
came off a little too hard btw.

I also agree with you that Rasmussen is not "faking" the numbers regarding Pomeroy, but it is weird that the SD-AL numbers suddenly became Herseth Sandlin in the lead after the DCCC released their internal poll.

And regarding NM-02, the Alb. Journal polled that and found Teague in the lead.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Spratt
Has Spratt's race even been polled? I'd also like to see a poll of Kagen's race now that the primary is over. I agree on most of your others except Grayson. He's a hyperpartisan Dem in a swing district in a Republican year.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
You're obviously right
that this is not a rule. But while I'm glad to see all these numbers, I'm suspicious that the Democratic leads of 2 points could represent a best case for turnout. Anything that's that close is really likely to hinge on getting out the vote, in any case.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Republican majority?
These polls are showing what I have been feeling for some time...this suppossed Republican majority has no clothes.  Where are these 40 odd seat pickup coming from?  3/4 of all the targeted seats have the Democrats ahead in some substanially.  Yeah Gordon's seat is gone prob Snyder's too...but so are Castle's and Cao's.  I'm not so sure Democrats might get by with not more the a net loss of ten or twelve.
32 Democratic incumbents
have been tied or losing according to Charlie Cook.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
yeah many of them in GOP polls
Recent polls have shown those Dems considered the most at risk in better shape than though...Acuri, Kratovil, Herseth-Sandlin...If they are ahead the next tier are in even better shape.  Massa's old seat is gone...be tough to see Perriello make it...but when you subtract the 3-6 GOP seats likely to flip to the maybe 15-20 Dem seats that are definitely gone I don't see where these other 25-30 seats come from.
[ Parent ]
these are the polls that DCCC want to release
they aren't releasing all of them and certainly being under 50% is nothing to really be happy about because they can still lose due to late deciders. Not to be a downer and I'm actually pleasantly surprised by AR-01 but just being ahead within the margin doesn't mean the race is over.  
[ Parent ]
Agreed
But all the common wisdom the past few weeks is the house is gone and maybe by 50, 60 or more seats.  Are some of these folks gonna lose? sure...but 30 or more? very doubtful.  I mean folks are acting like all the members listed in the DCCC and other polls are goners.  Stories are seriously going round that Pingree, Dingell and others like them are now in trouble. The facts don't reflect this...in the 30 most vulnerable Dem seats the GOP is ahead in about 1/3 tied or close in 1/3 and well behind in 1/3...even if they somehow sweep all these they still need about another 15 seats...
[ Parent ]
Well, I can get you to 32
after that though, it's hard. And seems each day it gets a little harder. I'm sticking with Dems hold by 6-10 (for this month at least)

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Or it may not be...
Looking at the House ratings here...

There are 2 Dem held seats considered "Likely R" and 3 Dem held seats considered "Leans R". I'll assume they're lost in this scenario. We're now at -5.

Now, let's say Dems lose 22 of the 33 Dem held seats listed as "Tossup". We're now at -27...

However, Dems win one of the 2 GOP held seats listed as "Tossup". Now we're only at -26.

There's 1 GOP held seat listed as "Leans D", and there's 1 GOP held seat listed as "Likely D". Add those to the total, and we're at -24.

Now I don't even consider this my "optimistic" forecast. I gave 2/3 of the Dem held "Tossup" seats to the GOP, plus all the Lean/Likely's. And I only gave 1 GOP held "Tossup" seat to the Dems. And even under this model, we only lose 24 seats and Nancy Pelosi remains Speaker with a bit of breathing room.

And if Dems can close well in the next few weeks, I can actually see fewer than 20 seats lost.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
how is a 27 term non-scandal Representative in a D+13 district
but under 50% reelect not a sign of serious trouble? He probably will win reelection but who knows with Michigan and the anti-incumbency mood.
[ Parent ]
Because Michigan...
Just isn't an easy state for us this year?

Seriously, I'm sick of hearing "THE SKY IS FALLING! SPEAKER BOEHNER!" every time an occasional bad poll comes out... Or in this case, Dingell is just under 50 but still leading by over 20%.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Actually it's 18 points
But your point is good despite my nitpicking :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
OK, 18%...
Sorry about that. Point taken. ;-)

But yes, otherwise, thanks for letting my point stand. Michigan just isn't an easy state for Dems this year. So it's not really fair to take one poll there and conclude "THE SKY IS FALLING!" That would be like taking that FL-25 poll released today and concluding that this means Dems will actually get a net pickup of seats this year.

As I keep saying here, each state has its own "political microclimate". Hell, each district can have its own "political microclimate"! Even in "wave elections", "the wave" doesn't crash evenly everywhere. And so far, I haven't seen any strong indication that this supposed "Red Tide of 2010" will be all that big.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
The sky is following
The sky does seem to be following in a area bounded by the Mississippi River to the west, the Ohio River and Mason-Dixon Line to the south, the Atlantic Ocean to the east and the Erie Canal and Canadian border to the North.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Actually, the 27-term thing
may be the source of the problem.  Recall Phil Crane losing to Melissa Bean in what was basically a Republican wave year, solely on the argument that he was out of touch with his constituents because he'd been there too long.  The people in this district have been represented by a man named John Dingell since 1933.  Even for them, that may get old at some point.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
What I'll find really funny
is if like 30 House Dems lose reelection and Walt Minnick isn't one of them; I wouldn't have bet a plug nickel on that in 2008.
[ Parent ]
Walt Minnick
I would actually be surprised if Walt Minnick lost.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Walt Minnick & Bobby Bright
I actually feel pretty good about both of their re-election prospects. Wouldn't it be hilarious if Nancy Pelosi remained Speaker thanks to Walt Minnick & Bobby Bright?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
How ironic
The irony in this election is going to be epic.  The conservaDems are going to hold on for life while the moderates and progressives lose.  The tea party candidates are going to crash and burn while more moderate and establishment Republicans win.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Minnick and Bright aside
After the election, I'd bet money that the Democrats who lose their seats this year will have a much more conservative voting record than those who win (Teague, Herseth-Sandlin, Pomeroy, Nye, AR-01, AR-02, TN-06, TN-08, and several others are not incumbents or districts that are known for progressiveness (though I'll grant that some like Teague are probably more progressive than meets the eye).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
What Progressives are losing in the polls?

I know not.
[ Parent ]
Only 3 members of the CPC have trailed in any poll
Hare, Hall, and Loebsack, and only Hall trailed in a non-GOP internal. Grayson is another endangered CPC member, but we've only seen one poll of his race, an internal in which he led.

But, looking closer, most of the CPC members are from very safe districts, and most of the members in swing districts who can be considered "progressives" are not CPC members.

For example, I would consider Shea-Porter, Kilroy, Perriello, Halvorson, Patrick Murphy, and Kagan to be non-CPC progressives in danger of losing this year, and I'm sure there are a few others I forgot.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Loebsack too?

Hare and Hall are in the Progressive caucus, true. Loebsack is too, but he lead the three polls what I know by +1%, +8% and +5%. And if I'm not wrong they are not more losing no-one poll, despite we include the GOP internals.

About the list of the representatives what you would consider progressives, as example Patrick Murphy (PA-08) is a Blue Dog.

I think the conservative democrats are in risk of lose much more than the progressives. The Progressive Caucus will remain strong.

[ Parent ]
I would too, at this point.
Which kind of baffles me.  This is Idaho:  shouldn't there be a passel of good-quality state legislators looking to move up?  How'd they get stuck with two weirdos?
[ Parent ]
The folly of the tea party
The tea party really shot itself in the foot in several districts like ID-1.  The irony is that the Republican pickups are largely going to be in areas where the tea party was relatively weak in the primaries.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Much as I'd like to agree
It's not as though Vaughn Ward was going to be any more superior a candidate than the hapless Labrador. The entire party/movement/etc. messed up here, not just the Partiers.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Minnick
The Republicans in that district can't find their butts with both hands.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
wouldn't be surprised
if we lose 40-50 seats. There are a lot of races the DCCC is polling but not releasing info on.

But I wouldn't say the House is gone yet. We definitely still have a chance to hold.

[ Parent ]
South is not going to be bad for the Dems
I am working on a scenario where the Republicans win only around a dozen seats in the South, but run up the margins in the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes.  Hopefully I will be able to post it tonight.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
MO-Sen poll out
Global Strategy Group for the Missouri Democratic Party (9-14/18, 601 likely voters):

Roy Blunt (R): 43
Robin Carnahan (D): 39
Jerry Beck (C): 3
Jonathan Dine (LBT): 3
(MOE: ±4%)

the margin is 37-37 without leaners

Those are good numbers
But, I'll need outside confirmation of this.

It could be an outlier like I feel that WI-sen poll by PPP is an outlier if Feingold is really losing by double digits.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
rassy says it's 7
ppp says double digits.  at this rate any poll showing feingold leaning will be the outlier.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
PPP hasn't said anything yet
What has been said has been deleted.

Till now, every poll besides Ras has shown Feingold leading.  All Ras polls except one have shown no lead for Johnson greater than 2 points.

[ Parent ]
what do you mean deleted?
as in PPP's twitter comment was deleted, a comment on here was deleted or something else?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Markos's Twitter is still up
It says it is a double-digit deficit for Feingold, regrettably. Although apparently the poll was posted briefly (by mistake?) and their were very weird internals, as in only 7% of the electorate was 18-29 years old. The link to that poll now leads to a page that says the poll has been removed.
[ Parent ]
thank you Mike Castle for:
1. giving up a locked safe House seat, which Carney now seem to be on the cusp of flipping, and
2. somehow running a losing Senate campaign, allowing us to retain that seat which all had assumed lost.
That's a twofer. Go Delaware.
I'll tell you one thing
Chris Coons is looking like an absolute fricking genius right now.  And Beau Biden is looking like even more of an idiot than he already proved himself to be.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Thank you Delaware GOP!
I feel like Michelle Rollins could have made this maybe a little bit competitive (i.e. - lost by high single digits), but this Urquhart gentleman is going to get crushed by John Carney. I don't think the Delaware Republicans could have picked a worse slate for the general election. The video of this guy calling liberals Nazis and tracing the principle of separation of church and state to Hitler is just as crazy as anything Christine O'Donnell said.

As far as the other races here, I feel like Pomeroy is almost certain to lose. Jim Marshall will probably win. Joe Garcia has a great shot to pull off an upset. This race could be a bright spot in a very dark night for the Democrats. The Causey-Crawford matchup is definitely a toss-up. I'm sure Beebe will cruise in this district while Blanche will likely flop. I'm interested to know how that will affect the down ballot races.  

I don't know about Pomeroy.
I think holding this seat when he retires will be a real challenge, but he's got a lot of years and credibility logged in; this is clearly going to be a close call, but I think he can pull it out.
[ Parent ]
I am not comforted by his poll
I was hoping for at least a little more of a lead. Just two points in an internal, with a 5 point MOE, and re-elect at just 46%, is a disappointment after the SD-AL numbers.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not well-versed in this race
Is his challenger very credible or is it just the environment that's killing him so badly?  I feel like he can pull out in the latter but the former might be difficult.
[ Parent ]
His opponent is the majority leader
of the ND state house IIRC. It seems like it's a combination of the two factors, plus Hoeven at the top of the ticket.
[ Parent ]
It is to bad Dorgan did not run again
If he did Pomeroy would probably be in better shape and of course we would'nt be certain of losing that senate seat.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
You shouldn't be disappointed at all. First...
...don't compare to SD-AL, there are special circumstances there helping SHS now, with Noem's personal baggage coming out and damaging her.  No similar thing with Berg.

Second, all the tea leaves I've read the past few weeks suggested Pomeroy was toast.  There are plenty of Dem incumbents in trouble for whom no internals have been released, probably because quite a few are losing in their own polling.  That Pomeroy has leads in his own internals is better than you should expect.

I bet Pomeroy still ends up losing, but this is still hopeful because if his internals are right and he splits undecideds and ends up pulling it out, it might not be as bad a night as we fear.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Pomeroy
I work for a Progressive Dem. member of the House. The feeling I'm getting from most people I talk to is that his seat is gone. Seeing him around here the last week you can tell he's exhausted and we've still got a month to go in that race. You couldn't find a nicer guy and I'm pulling hard for him, but it just feels like one of those races where you work and work but the lines never move all that much.

I'm a lot like one of the earlier folks commenting above who said they tend to add or subtract 5 from internals. I don't necessarily go that far, but I assume the numbers are going to be cooked a little bit either way depending on which side is doing the polling and am pleasantly surprised when that's not the case.

I'm pulling hard for Chad Causey in Arkansas. He was really well liked when he was Berry's CoS... put himself through law school while doing a pretty demanding job. That said, I feel about his numbers the same way I do about Pomeroy's. I hope I'm wrong on each of those races in the worst kind of way, and that we see some more polling that backs these numbers up, but I'm just not optimistic about them.  

[ Parent ]
Thank you for your comment and please do share regularly here, we value perspectives like yours. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Heck trailing by 3 in internal poll
Dems Lead in Five Internal Polls | 108 comments

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