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NY-24: Arcuri Leads by 8

by: James L.

Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 10:00 AM EDT


Siena (9/13-15, likely voters, no trend lines):

Michael Arcuri (D-inc): 48
Richard Hanna (R): 40
(MoE: ±4%)
James L. :: NY-24: Arcuri Leads by 8
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NY-24: Arcuri Leads by 8 | 78 comments
Not bad
Makes him a slight favorite.
Wow
I thought Arcuri would be a goner. Good news, maybe all of our upstate incumbents will hold on.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Not crazy about Arcuri but
definitely would like for him to hold this seat. Dem internal had it 50-37 so this essentially confirms that.
Just what I thought...
I agree. Arcuri certainly faces a competitive race, but for now it seems he still has the upper hand. Perhaps his close call in 2008 taught him a lesson. I certainly hope so.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Ditto.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
His 2008 result

was a mirror of the generic split of his district at the time, imo.  The district is very slightly national Democratic leaning and probably continue to trend Democratic very slightly.

Arcuri seems to be doing substantially more this go-around, but it's hard to say whether hard stumping does a whole lot of good in that kind of district (which may be why he soft-pedaled it in '08.)  It's been an Upstate economic decline area for a long time- I used to go there three or four times a year- but seems to have hit bottom sometime in the early 2000s and is now a bit on the mend.  

It will probably be politically erratic for a while longer.  But I've considered Arcuri safer than most here have all along.  As well as Owen, Murphy, and Hall.  Though I've had no hopes for holding NY-29 since Massa's implosion.

[ Parent ]
cuomo-schumer-gillibrand
Quite the dem firewall even upstate.
Interestingly
Dems seem to be in more trouble in the outer burbs than upstate. I'd much rather keep Hall than Arcuri, though.  
Siena should be polling NY-19 soon
I suspect PPP's poll and definitely would like alternate opinions.
[ Parent ]
Agree
I hope Siena polls NY-19, to see if it matches the PPP poll of the district.  It would be somewhat ironic if it ends up that, other than NY-29, the most vulnerable NY districts are not NY-20, NY-23 and NY-24, but NY-19 and NY-1.
[ Parent ]
Which would confirm the wisdom of Steve Israel
I gather from previous digests that he's campaigning hard, and hope Carolyn McCarthy is doing the same.

(Also confirms the emerging thesis among some here that Ds in big city suburban seats are more vulnerable than Ds from more rural districts.)

[ Parent ]
Makes the cash advantage
a little less relevant. Suburban districts are EXPENSIVE.  
[ Parent ]
Confirms what I've been thinking all along.
Localization will be the key here, and it is far easier for Dems from rural districts to localize their races than Dems from suburban districts, especially those that were elected recently and are in marginal areas.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Crosstabs
here.
A good bellwether
This is one of three districts Nate Silver rates as a perfect tossup: 50% chance that the seat will change parties.

Arcuri's 8-point lead makes me think Nancy just might hold on to that gavel.

We need to see more
from PA, OH, and MI.  
[ Parent ]
Early reports from OH haven't been bad
Driehaus was only trailing by 2, Kilroy by 4 in the latest polls out of there.  Sutton was ahead by 5, and we haven't seen reliable polling on Boccieri and Space. (That poll showing Boccieri down 14 was 100% bs because of the 84% over 50+ age sample they used)

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
No....
Let's look at the overall picture in OH-01: chabot is up by 10. The poll you reference is an outlier.

If Mary Jo Kilroy can't get above 41%, and I can bet that's where she's stuck, she's going to lose. She is a horribly uninspiring democrat who got 46%.. Or was it 45 in 2008.

Sutton will lose only if the dga and the DSCC pull out of Ohio. I think we will lose OH-16 as well.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Ohio
I suspect Ohio is going to be the Dems' worst state for three reasons:

* Old people don't like Obama, and Ohio (like PA) is an old state; the drop-off in African-American voters in the midterms is going to have a disproportionate impact.
* The economy sucks eggs, if not to a Michigan-ish degree
* Unique to Ohio: Bob Ney is in jail; Bob Taft is out of sight at a think tank somewhere; Tom Noe is in jail. Ohio really had a perfect storm of Republican corruption stories going on in 2005 and 2006, which I think gave the Democrats two terms of lift that's now reverting to the mean.

[ Parent ]
I have read
that the drop off rate of African Americans is expected to only go down by a few points. They know what is at stake. Unlike many other people.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
AA Drop off
I really do not think AA drop is going to sink a lot of Democrats.  The mass abandonment of the Democratic Party by suburban voters is going to sink a lot of Democrats.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Exactly my point
about some people knowing what is truly at stake and others obviously not.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Don't forget stinkers like Lee Fisher at the top of the ticket...
Plus the overblown "corruption" scandal in Cuyahoga county may depress the soft dem vote in NE Ohio and doesn't help with independents out there.
[ Parent ]
I'm not really into "bellwethers"...
As each district essentially has its own "political microclimate". Still, I agree that it's certainly a good sign that Dems are pulling ahead in such "stereotypical swing districts" as NY-24, NM-01, AZ-08, and NV-03.

And yes, if we hold these and other somewhat similar "swing districts", Pelosi will remain Speaker.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Well, that's a monkey wrench in the conventional wisdom of the D blogsphere
A lot of us believed that Arcuri's votes for and then against HCR would doom him, by depressing the base.

If the X-tabs are to be believed, Arcuri is getting 27% crossover from Rs, while leading among Ds 77-16.

Siena, IMO, is the gold standard for NY polling.

I wouldn't call them the Gold Standard
They have had some huge fluctiations in their polls that don't correspond to actual events in the races they are covering. Their next NY-20 poll will likely show a smaller lead for Murphy, but it won't necessarily indicate movement. That 17-point lead for him was very unlikely, although the poll was probably within the MOE.

Siena is generally good but I stop far short of calling them the Gold Standard. Unfortunately they are the only independent poll who cover a lot of the CDs.

[ Parent ]
Everyone has fluctuations within the MoE
In fact, a lack of fluctuations would itself be suspicious. I think of them as the "Gold Standard" in NY because they seem to be a heck of a lot more reliable than say a F&M in PA or even a UNH in NH.
[ Parent ]
Meh, they're ok I guess
My guess is not as good as, say, Field in CA.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Is anyone?
;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
that's why it is always called
  "the Respected Field Poll".  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Heh. ;-)


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
One of their polls in 08 had Obama up just 5 points
it was right after the Repub convention but still, that was in no way credible. Then their next poll showed him up 17 points. Too much movement too soon.
[ Parent ]
Parties always have a bounce post-national convention
Is there any evidence that poll is not credible?

I think people are more fickle than you suggest, especially just after big events.

And even if that poll's results were screwy, every credible pollster has outliers. That's statistics.

[ Parent ]
No other poll ever showed it that close
and knowing other erratic movements Siena polls have made, I definitely consider that Obama 5 point lead not credible, even after the RNC.

[ Parent ]
People always remember the exceptions
It's the statistics that prove or disprove the credibility of a pollster.
[ Parent ]
Really Interesting
Looking at the crosstabs it shows Arcuri crushing among indys at 48-34 and taking a huge portion of Repbublicans at 60-27, while Hanna only takes 16% of Dems. I think a lot of the problem for Hanna is when you look at the Region voting. He is from Oneida County, as is Arcuri (he was DA there) and that is really the heart of the district population wise, as well as being more of GOP stronghold than some of the other areas (Geneva, Auburn, Cortland are all Dem-leaning cities and make up the population centers of the southern and western parts of the district).

I think Hanna is just unknown outside of his base in Oneida County and Arcuri's strength there somewhat negates that strength. I think the key to Hanna's campaign would be to reach out to the other areas of the district, some of which can be quite Republican, as well as consolidate his GOP base in Oneida. The two are about even financially so we will see if Hanna can use the money to good effect or whether the D-trip, NRCC or other groups will pump some cash in (remember, if the NRCC had thrown just a little money this way in 08 we could be talking about Hanna as the incumbent).

Nevertheless, great poll for Arcuri but I think it shows a lot of room for Hanna to grow.  

I'm feeling some hope, not just here but elsewhere. Really the best thing to happen to me emotionally...
...was that series of generic ballot polls that showed us down by about 10, all in the same week around Labor Day.

That strangely gave me some peace of mind because it felt like we'd hit the "bottom" I'd felt we had actually reached awhile earlier.  So those polls come out, and I immediately felt, "good, now it can't get any worse, it will get only a little better."  That the media narrative has put all the eggs in the basket of GOP House takeover helps us in the expectations game, as it gives our voters a bit of a wake-up call as the election gets closer.  And it actually helps us feel OK "the morning after" if we lose the House but the net change in seats is in the low 40s, putting the GOP in the low 220s with no margin for error and no real working majority to do a lot except on the margins, far from where the teabaggers want their party to be.

I was, indeed, one who thought Arcuri's flip-flop on health care was fatal for a guy who already had run such a bad campaign the last time around.  I'm very happy to eat my words and thoughts, as I'm rooting for victory for every last House candidate running on the Democratic line.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

I'm with you.
Everything feels like it's moving back towards the mean.  Economic news is much better the last few weeks(not that it will necessary be digested by the average voter).  Media is focused on Christine O'Donnell and the Tea Party movement and doesn't seem to want to let it go.  The tax cut debate is going well so far.  Some good advertising by Boxer and Murray has me feeling very good about those races.  The DCCC polls have made me feel better about some of our House candidates.  And the generic ballot seems to be tightening.  Cautiously optimistic that Dem losses can be held in check, although I still think the House is right on the brink.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I don't doubt we'd lose the House if the election were today. What we need to do is...
...press in unity the message that the Republicans have become too extreme, focusing on the many crazy Senate and House candidates they're offering.  Make the Republicans play defense and say "no we're not."  The GOP has given so many federal office nominations to nutbags that the "too extreme" meme is plausible and persuasive.

This of course has to be integrated into localization of races, and it's not uniform since we have some vulnerable Ds who are limited to localizing as their strategy b/c of too many conservative voters who won't buy the "extreme" narrative.

But in purple districts, it can work.

I only fear that the Obama Administration and Congressional Democrats are too lost and confused to "get it" that this is the message that can work.  They show signs of getting it, but then I don't see the coordinated attack.  I just shake my head that the White House thinks there's any mileage in attacking John Boehner...stupid, stupid, stupid.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
With you all the way.
We should be making Sarah Palin, Sharon Angle, and Christine O'Donnell the three-headed face of the GOP.  Not John Boehner!  Nobody gives a fuck about him.  Just like nobody gave a fuck about Pelosi in 2006 and 2008.

The coordinated message I'm seeing right now is about Social Security privatization, outsourcing, and tax cuts for the rich.  Those are all good.  But the most compelling message is that these are some crazy fuckers.  Don't attack the Tea Party movement (you don't attack regular joes), but the candidates themselves.  And the great thing is that the media will help, because they won't stop talking about these crazy fuckers if you get them going.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
The coordinated message you're seeing is CORRECT but just missing the tagline......
The tagline is "too extreme."  Just keep repeating they're "extremists," "too extreme," over and over again.

Focusing on those issues is good, focusing on the individual candidates' personal whackiness (Angle's tanning beds for inmates and 2nd amendment remedies; O'Donnell's corrupt campaign practices and other personal blemishes; etc.) is equally good.  It's all part of the same narrative:  too extreme.  It's Harry Reid's tagline applied nationally.

I see the same thing you're seeing, and I like it, but it's not wrapped up in quite the succinct package it could be a for a winning nationalized message.

My new big complaint about campaigns is lack of a unifying tagline.  Every candidate and campaign needs to be schooled to develop one.  Every campaign that has one is always the better for it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Ha!
The DSCC is clearly listening to you.  Here's the latest ad against Ken Buck, with Harry Reid's (and your) tagline:

http://thepage.time.com/2010/0...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Not that I love the 17th amendment argument.
A little technical.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
IMO that argument is very good if you frame it
as a 'He wants to take your rights away' issue.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
what makes the extremist lingo nice
Is that we haven't really been attacked nor is it an msm meme that we're extremists our big liberal ideas are causing this disaster.  People just think we suck and can't get the job done, which are opinions that speak little about policies.
[ Parent ]
"This of course has to be integrated into localization of races"
Couldn't agree more. Run against Palin, Angle, O'Donnell, etc. Not against Boehner. Like Pelosi, he is nowhere near vulnerable in his district. (Hell, Pelosi is far more likely to lose to Cindy Sheehan than the token Republican that is lucky to crack double digits.)

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Attacking in suburbs
The problem is that the GOP nominated mainly establishment and moderate candidates in the swingy suburban seats.  Typically the nutcases are limited to more rural seats.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
For the House yes
for the Senate no, and that's why we won't win back the Senate.

We could have had Colorado, Nevada, Delaware, and California locked down now if we had nominated more slightly less conservative candidates, which would give us 8 solid pickups.  Now it is possible that we still win some of these, but it will take a lot more work and money to do so.  With these 8 in hand, we could have hammered Feingold, Giannoulias, Blumenthal, Murray, and Manchin the rest of the way.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Sure, I agree. But as a Democrat I'm trying to save maybe 10 or fewer seats...
...to save the House.

At least, that's what I think is needed.  I see the GOP right now with a gross gain in the mid-to-high-40s, and losses of 4-5 to make it a net gain in the low 40s.  If Democrats can reduce the gross gains by a half-dozen or so seats, that saves the House, in my math.

Regarding Democratic gains, right now I'm the most optimistic I've ever been that all 4 of our top opportunities will be pickups.  I have a feeling Djou is going down based on primary turnout and the fundamentals of that particular race (Obama sky-high job approval; unpopular GOP Governor; big organic Dem advantage in base vote; Dems motivated to take back governorship and now to turn out Djou).  Cao's seat I penciled in for us as soon as Cao won his runoff over Jefferson, and Richmond's consolidation of support only solidifies him.  Carney is holding firm in DE-AL.  And Seals is the biggest sigh of relief, holding consistent leads in all polling in his race and on track to take IL-10; this is one suburban race where the GOP fucked up by NOT picking the right nominee and instead going too far right, as I bet Coulson would be winning or at least in a true dead heat right now.

And I'm increasingly thinking the Democrats might enjoy a special surprise elsewhere, either FL-25 or CA-03.  I'm actually encouraged by the MN-06 polling even though I don't really see Clark getting over the hump, but I would've guessed even a nutbag like Bachmann would be running away with it in this environment.  I'm also encouraged that Callahan is down 11 in the latest poll vs. Dent, because frankly Dent is a strong enough and smart enough campaigner that I could see him beating Callahan by 11 even in a neutral political environment; that it's 11 in this environment tells me that Callahan still has life.  I think Raj Goyle also has a better shot than he should in KS-04, thanks to dislike of Pompeo.  Don't get me wrong, I know Dems are decided underdogs in all these, but right now I think there's a 50-50 shot that one of these will flip unexpectedly.  Surprises do happen for a disfavored party even in a nasty wave, as we learned in 1994 when Ken Bentsen won in a district that everyone thought the Republicans would take even before anyone saw the big wave coming that year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree
I suspect the Democrats will have a few surprises. The sad thing for the Democrats is that their stronger than usual performances in the South will probably have no coattails while their implosions in the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic will sink fellow Democrats down-ballot.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Agree, but
There will be positive surprises, but in all likelihood, there will be negative surprises too. And given a wave election, the negative ones will probably outnumber them.
[ Parent ]
Hey, it's working here!
Seriously, if Reid and Titus win reelection (and I'm feeling much more confident now than I was 6 months ago) Democrats elsewhere should take a look at what happened.

Reid has been going after Angle for her extremism, and Titus has been tying Heck to Angle's extremism. And they compare and contrast their local work on bringing jobs here and fighting foreclosures with their courting of "Tea Party, Inc." As soon as Sarah Palin tweeted her thumbs up for Angle, Reid hit immediately... President Obama also should have gone after Palin. She's the much more obvious GOP/teabagger icon than Boehner.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
People dont care about no-names
unless that no-name has a job offer
[ Parent ]
Not to be the bearer of bad news but...
Any incumbent polling under 50% is not good.

I always thought the Arcuri/Hanna race would be close.

The cross tabs make me a little nervous because it shows Hanna has room to grow if he can get more of the GOP vote.

In the end a lot of NY races will come down to turnout. That was the lesson of the 2009 NYS local races.  

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[ Parent ]
50% isn't really a concern until the end
mid-September is still early to say any incumbent not at 50% is in trouble. Also, as some have argued, in house races it isn't as applicable, since people are frequently not as familiar with the congressperson as with the president, their senator or governor.

[ Parent ]
Dog shit.
A poll with an 8-point lead for a Democrat who EVERY person on this site who expressed an opinion was leaving for dead just a month ago is not good news, it's GREAT news.  Especially when it confirms an internal showing a 13 point lead.

What a ridiculous downer you are...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
The 50% rule is a myth in the first place......
It's really a convenient tool that political reporters like to use, but in reality there's nothing magical about polling above/below 50%.  If you're up, you're up, if you're not, you're not.  And if you're sitting at 48/49, you're in pretty good shape UNLESS the challenger is within the margin of error or close to it.  Frankly after Hanna lost 51-49 last time, he should be worried he's not doing better now already, when so many other Dem incumbents look dead in the water already.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It works better for new candidates
where the new candidate is relatively unknown, has funding, and reasonable favorability numbers.

Hanna is not a new candidate. While I'm a bit surprised at the numbers who have no opinion of him (44%), I'm thinking he's already raised his visibility just about as high as it would go in the '08 campaign.

And as user DCCyclone suggests, the 50% guideline is less credible when the incumbent is already pretty close to that number, as s/he will get some proportion of undecideds.

[ Parent ]
I'm wondering
whether the constant polls showing blowouts for Dems in Gov and both Senate races won't serve to depress Dem turnout it becomes common wisdom that they are done deals? Not that it will affect those races but downballot in Congressional and key State Senate races it could have an effect. Although now that Paladino is the nominee my parents (big Dems, but barely vote) have said they definitely intend to get out to vote against his batshit crazy ass. He might fire up some Dems more than the blah Lazio would but he also ensures that the nuts that voted for him will be heading to the polls as well.
[ Parent ]
Quite possibly
I have thought for awhile that Democratic turnout might be depressed in a place like New York State because they perceive the top of the ballot races except AG being in the bag.  This will leave the Republicans, whom are fired up in general, ready to go out and flip some House and legislative seats.  

That basically happened in the Westchester and Nassau county races last November.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Last November is not a valid comparison......
Those local races were the only thing on the ballot.

This time, you're going to have enough organic voter interest to get Democrats out.  An open governorship and two U.S. Senate races all on the same ballot, along with all the downballot stuff in addition, will do that.

Ultimately I think it's misguided to think the Dem blowout wins at the top somehow help Republicans more than the alternative.  After all, if one or more of those races was tight, both Democratic and Republican enthusiasm would be higher, and there wouldn't necessarily be a net Democratic gain in turnout from the competitive race.

Ultimately the Dem blowout wins at the top only hurt Republicans downballot.  Those blowouts reduce the reasons for Republicans to show up and vote.  Democrats might not be "enthusiastic" but they'll certainly show up.  And state Dems have better field than the state GOP, which of course is in shambles.  That Paladino is the Gov nominee only helps Dems more by providing a foil.

I won't be surprised if NY-29 proves the only seat Dems lose in the state.  Yes maybe Hall loses and maybe one more, but I think it's 50-50 that no incumbent goes down.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
But that's the point....
In 2009 only local races where on the ballot. If the Gov & Sen races are done deal blowouts than the only competive races might be the down ballot ones which could depress turnout.

Also keep in mind Cuomo is running an Anti-Albany cmapign. He's running from the right not the left. Cuomo even clained he was the Tea Party candidate:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

So I can see the blowouts at the top of the ticket keeping turnout down.

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[ Parent ]
You're not going to have turnout THAT depressed among Dems with those things on top of the ballot.....
No matter if they're blowouts, there will be TV ads for top-of-ticket candidates and field organizing to help downballot, and base Democrats are going to make a much higher percentage of total turnout in 2010 than they made up in local races in 2009.

That's MY point, that 2009 isn't a valid comparison.  Blowouts favoring Dems at the top won't "cancel out" the turnout spike that would otherwise exist for those races compared to a local-only ballot.

I think some of you are taking too far the notion that a blowout FAVORING DEMOCRATS is going to depress Democratic turnout more than Republican turnout.  It will mute Democratic enthusiasm compared to more competitive races, yes, but it's not going to help Republicans.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yes but its WHY the top of the ticket is a blowout that should worry Dems
The top of the ticket is a blowout because the GOP bascially ceded these races to the Democrats and the Democrat candidate for governor is running against Dems from the right!

Cuomo's ads got the fmr GOP chairman in it saying what a great guy Andrew is and how he will fix Albany. Fix it from who? The Dems running the place?

The problem is I'm not sure Andrew cares about coattails or will even have them.

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[ Parent ]
New Yorkers understand from whom
Whether we're Democrats, Republicans, or Independents, we overwhelmingly agree that the State Legislature sucks. There are exceptions, but what we see is that in general, legislators seem to be more interested in selfish deal-making and sometimes worse forms of misconduct than they are in actually running the state competently and taking actions in the public interest. And Cuomo's statement that he advocates policies he claims the Tea Party stands for will not hurt his votes among Democrats, because the things he said in the Post article you quoted will strike most New Yorkers of all political stripes as common sense, not as extremist in any way.

One thing I don't think Cuomo can pull off, though, is to cut New York State taxes. If he did that, he would destroy vital services that Congress refuses to sufficiently subsidize. And therefore, he may be engaging in some demagoguery, but considering the insane rants Paladino has spewed, he'll get away with it. I don't expect him to singlehandedly reform the Legislature as Governor, either, and I certainly hope he doesn't declare war against them like Spitzer did as Governor. For better and mostly for worse, he needs their votes (which mostly means the assent of the Assembly Speaker and whoever will be leading the Senate, as all New Yorkers who follow state politics know) to approve anything.

And how is this relevant to discuss here? Only to the extent that if he promises to cut our taxes and fails, or/and if he wages all-out war against the Legislature - which he would definitely lose - he will hemorrhage popularity very quickly and set himself up for a third ignominious Democratic Governorship of New York in a row. If that happened, I think even in this Democratic a state, it would provide an opening for a somewhat moderate Republican or perhaps a Governor Bloomberg, should he be interested.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Agreed!
Pan, I think  you are dead on with what you wrote.

My only point from a SSP perspective was that even though Cuomo will win in a landslide I am not sure he will have the kind of coattails Spitzer had when he won in 2006 or Obama had when he won NYS in 2008 because of why he is winning this race so big.

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[ Parent ]
I think I get what you mean
Spitzer was someone people were proud to vote for, and Obama was someone people were excited to vote for. Cuomo may be someone people are OK with voting for and strongly motivated to vote for in order to prevent a lunatic-fringe character from winning, but perhaps he does not have such a strong movement behind him. Is that another way of saying what you posted above?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I can tell you that's exactly what happened last year in Virginia but not in the way you describe......
I'm a party activist in VA-10, and I can tell you Democratic turnout cratered at the end when it was apparent Deeds was toast.  That did, indeed, kill us downballot.  My very good Virginia House Delagate, Margi Vanderhye, lost her Dem-leaning seat to a hard right conservative GOPer.  I examined precinct-level turnout in the district afterward, and 6 of 7 Dem-leaning precincts saw absolute lower turnout than 4 years earlier despite growth in voter registration, while all but one of the GOP-leaning precincts saw growth in turnout compared to 4 years earlier.  That was THE difference in the outcome, and that played itself out in many places.

Of course, this was a scenario where a GOP blowout win helped Republicans downballot and hurt Democratic turnout, the traditional coattail effect.

You're arguing reverse coattails in New York.  I think it's possible and even plausible, but ultimately the GOP needs strong organic voter realization of downballot stakes to take advantage of any such thing.  Remember that the state GOP has no turnout program to speak of, they're a disaster.  So individual campaigns are on their own, and that's not where they want to be against a better-organized coordinated Democratic effort.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
OTOH, 1996 might be an example...
... of what he's describing. For a presidential election, turnout was dismal. And while that was partly because it was an extremely boring race, a lot of it had to do with would-be Clinton voters not bothering because they assumed he would crush Dole by 15+ points.

The result? Clinton got under 50% of the vote, his margin over Dole was only 8-9 points, and Dems failed to retake the House or Senate (losing ground in the latter) despite actually leading the national House popular vote.  

[ Parent ]
hmm
I thought Arcuri was toast. A few weeks ago I made a list of districts that I was pretty sure the Dems would lose. Since then I have moved Arcuri, Kratovil (MD), Titus (NV), and Teague (NM) back to uncertain.  

41, Ind, CA-05
Rural vs. Suburban and stimulus
The stimulus is viewed pretty favorably. Me thinks that suburban voters are much more concerned with the price tag and rural voters like what the stimulus has done for them in terms of projects. Perhaps this explains the national mood somewhat?

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
Actually, I've seen the opposite here...
Even though much more money (proportion wise) has gone to the rurals than to Vegas, the rurals are still going heavily for Angle and many folks out there talk about the Recovery Act like it's "Reid's bribes" (even if, again, they're benefitting the most from it). In contrast, Reid's education attacks on Angle really worked here in Henderson (the Vegas suburbs) and Titus' reminders on the Recovery Act funds going to road improvement projects around town have given her good press.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Local exception to general rule
I think it varies regionally.  In the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, rural districts seem to love their pork while suburban districts suffer from sticker shock.  Pennsylvania is the best example of how this plays out.  Bringing the bacon home simply does not work as well in a wealthy suburban district as it does in somewhere like PA-12.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
then here in the Twin Cities
These projects have only created massive amounts of traffic so far with lane closings ans such on the freeway.  The projects to tout will be done just as the election is about over.  (Sucks you can only do major highway construction during the summer here.)
[ Parent ]
I would not have expected Arcuri to be in such good shape
Good news.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Know it's not an open thread
But Markos just tweeted that PPP has Feingold down double digits. Fuck

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
Lots of discussion on that in the ... um ...
open thread below.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
just noticed that
thanks

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
NY-24: Arcuri Leads by 8 | 78 comments

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