Expert analysis by nycyoungin

This isn't very good.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

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by: nycyoungin @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 13:43:42 PM UTC

But it's standard in a wave year

It's the kind of poll that tends to confirm an R lead in congressional generic polls.

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by: tietack @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:25:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In a wave year against our own party, a 19-point lead is, in fact, VERY GOOD. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:41:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He routinely gets 70% of the vote

From 2002-2008.

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by: Kendall @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:43:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nor is it horrible.

Even if the seat flips (unlikely), it isn't likely to stay flipped.  His replacement (in 2 years) may well be an improvement, and will certainly have more years ahead of him or her.

Would term limits of 30 years be awful?

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by: JimJ @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 19:36:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This will be

the kind of race that Fred Upton (59-39) and Mike Rogers (57-40) got in 2008.  Just indicative of the wave, but no serious danger.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 14:58:58 PM UTC

this

This is why I don't read too much into the generic ballot. An abstract preference for one party is more likely to translate into actual votes in uncompetitive districts with no real campaign.  

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:15:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Gov race

is a nightmare and every D on the ballot will be dragged down.  

TX-13,22,Dem

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by: buff2011 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:06:14 PM UTC

That's what I was thinking...

I think it's just a matter of the poor showing at the top of the ticket in Michigan. Bernero and the MI Dems need to fix this ASAP, at the very least so Dems still feel they have reason to go out and vote.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:57:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think this comes down to rural/suburban

We talked about this in other threads about the PA races and NYS congressional races. How suburban voters were moving to the GOP faster than rural voters in this wave.

I think this has a lot to to with the focus on the economy and taxes.

The Tea Party has moved the GOP's focus away from social issues (Guns, God & Gays) to fiscal issues of Taxes and Spending.

This is pulling moderates and independents back towards the GOP fold.

If the DSCC is doing triage right now they really need to look at the suburban districts. Because that where the surprises of this cycle might come.

As for Dingell I still go by the old rule of any incumbent polling under 50% is in trouble.

While I think he wins in Novemeber, he will have to do something he hasnt done in a VERY long time. Campaign hard in a general election.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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by: izengabe @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:20:08 PM UTC

Dingell could fall, but I doubt it

If Dingell campaigns hard, he will win reelection.  With local boy Rick Snyder slaughtering Virg Bernero the Republican boat will be lifted substantially in MI-15, but probably not enough.  I would not be shocked if he lost Washtenaw and Monroe counties though.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 15:44:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dingell

I'd love to see this old fossil lose, but I don't think it's all that likely.  Every time I've seen him on C-Span, he's always been obnoxious and full of himself.  I wonder if his loss of influence will hurt him at all in the vote?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:43:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you continue to make posts like this

You won't last much longer around here, period. We're simply not interested in hearing the fact that a Republican commenter doesn't like a Democrat.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:28:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dingell will win but this is concerning

for MI-07/9/11. I still think we can win the first two narrowly as Peters won by a pretty large margin and Walberg is very flawed as a candidate though the Dems. are going upstream in those races. The 11th is probably gone as a pickup opportunity which is to bad if we had made a race of it in 08 we would probably have the seat now.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:35:30 PM UTC

and MI-01

allthough my gut tells me then MI-07/9 would go first if the GOP were to make gains.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:37:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MI-7 goes first

Obama dragged Schauer across the finish line in 2008.  Walberg is not a great candidate, but with Snyder at the top of the ticket, even he will get dragged across the finish line.

MI-9 can fall as well.  Rocky is not a great candidate either, but being a wealthy suburban district in the Great Lakes this cycle is poisonous for most Democrats.

MI-1 is the race I cannot read at all.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:40:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right thats basicly my sentiment

MI-7 will probably be the first to go. I still think that all three could go either way though. I agree with MI-01 though I think UP Democrats are good at winning this race even though it's Republican at the presidential level (discounting Obamas lopsided margin). But still really no info and its an open race.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:45:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right thats basicly my sentiment

MI-7 will probably be the first to go. I still think that all three could go either way though. I agree with MI-01 though I think UP Democrats are good at winning this race even though it's Republican at the presidential level (discounting Obamas lopsided margin). But still really no info and its an open race.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:46:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right thats basicly my sentiment

MI-7 will probably be the first to go. I still think that all three could go either way though. I agree with MI-01 though I think UP Democrats are good at winning this race even though it's Republican at the presidential level (discounting Obamas lopsided margin). But still really no info and its an open race.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:57:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

sorry for the triple post heh.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 16:57:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think you set a record.

First triple post I've seen.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:14:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MI Congressional changes

All three districts are gerrymandered fairly well for the GOP -- except that they relied on numbers from back when the "do it local, and do it right -- we're the grown-ups" wing of the GOP was still pretty strong.  Moderate Democrats can therefore beat extremist Republicans.  

In MI-1, Stupak was pretty entrenched; I'm not sure McDowell is sufficiently well-known to win unless Benishek makes a lot of mistakes.  (He has made some, and will almost certainly make more, but it doesn't look like he'll make enough to matter.)  So I would guess that this one will flip, unless Glenn Wilson (Independent) gets traction.

I do expect Peters and Schauer to pull it out, though, because of candidate effects.  I'll freely grant that MI-7 flips back before MI-9; if you replaced either Schauer or Walberg with a generic, MI-7 probably wouldn't even be competitive.

Background:  

Even in 2008, MI-9 was only won because the incumbent was left over from a more conservative district.  He had already fended off Republican Primary challenges from the left before Democrats got serious.  Republicans could probably have held it if he had retired for a moderate, or they they could have taken it back with a moderate this time; the actual challenger is a bit erratic, but competent, so they still have a chance.  But if had been able to seal the deal, we would have heard more from him by now.

MI-7 is one district where the moderate/extremist gap can really hurt Republicans.  They have a couple hotbeds of far-right activism, but much of the District (including the part near me) is more moderate.  A few cycles ago, moderate Joe Schwarz snuck through a crowded primary.  Once past the primary, he could probably have won General Elections even if he were in a coma, so Democrats didn't bother to really run a candidate two years later. (Well, Sharon Renier, who is currently running for something else -- this time as a Republican.)  So when the Club For Growth primaried Schwarz, Walberg got one free pass.  He didn't get two, and I've heard from people who voted for him even in 2008, but won't this time.  (That said, the folks I've heard from are from the more moderate part of the District.)

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by: JimJ @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:52:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MI-01 will be the first to go

McDowell is a good enough candidate on paper, but he just isn't going to win this cycle. The UP and northern MI are ground zero for Tea Party activity in Michigan. People up there are pissed off, and they're not going to vote for another Democrat. With the dead girl/live boy caveat, Benishek will win this one.

MI-07 will almost certainly flip too. Walberg is polarizing, and I'd much rather have had Rooney come out of the primary, but this is a Republican-leaning district in a Republican year. I know Dems love Schauer (they're planning on accelerating him into the leadership if he wins), but he's just too liberal to hold this district.

MI-09 is more complicated. It's a district filled with conservative small cities (Rochester, Rochester Hills, Clarkston, Lake Orion, Birmingham, Troy, etc.), but a few Dem strongholds as well (majority-minority Pontiac, parts of Bloomfield, Auburn Hills trending that way). Also, the Republican areas are not all that culturally conservative; these are fiscal conservative, country-club Republicans. This means that they can be persuaded to vote for sane Democrats if they perceive the Republican as an extremist (or too focused on social issues). Knollenberg lost here because he was old and corrupt and out of touch. Rocky isn't the best candidate, but in a good year, he could definitely knock off Peters, who is well to the left of the district.

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by: MIJunkie @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 19:59:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dingell had a close election in 1994 if I recall....

...but that was a district that was far less friendly if I recall.

However the Ann Arbor/Ypsi district of Lynn Rivers (which the Republicans put into Dingell's 10 years ago) did have some scary pre-election polling though luckily they really got their act together and closed it strong.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

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by: Taget @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:00:58 PM UTC

I think this at least merits "Race to Watch" status

Dingell and his father have held this seat for nearly 80 years and he hasn't had to campaign in a while. One also must wonder how good he will be on the campaign trail at his advanced age (not to say he won't be good, since Daniel Inouye is still an excellent campaigner both for himself and other Dems.)

If Steele gets some traction and the DNC gives up on the governor's race, Dingell is going to have to at least work for this one.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 17:43:19 PM UTC

I'd say likely R right now

For Steele to win, he is going to have to likely win the Washtenaw county part of this district, which is mostly Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti.  Dingell isn't particularly liked there, but this is a place where McCain got 23%.  That is a really uphill climb.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

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by: BearFanTX @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:00:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You mean Likely D I hope

I wouldn't go that far, but I will grant MassGOP that it is a Race to Watch ... and it will be watched.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:15:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

safe D

for the reasons you suggest. I lived in Ann Arbor for 9 years and the only type of Republican I could see beating Dingell there would be someone who is to his left on environmental and social/cultural issues while being to his right on economic issues. (Someone like former NY rep Sherwood Boehlert, if anyone remembers who he was.) From what I can tell from Steele's web site, he's just a garden variety conservative.    

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 18:56:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Totally agree

People here really seriously think Ann Arbor is going to go Republican in anything but a perfect storm? Get real.

If there's anywhere that Republicans could make up some ground in this district it would be in the working-class Wayne County suburbs. I don't see that really happening as long as Dingell is in office.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 01:28:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]