Quinnipiac (9/9-14, likely voters, 6/22-27 (RVs) in parens):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 37 (43)
John Kasich (R): 54 (38)
Undecided: 7 (15)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Quinnipiac (9/9-14, likely voters, 6/22-27 (RVs) in parens):
Lee Fisher (D): 35 (42)
Rob Portman (R): 55 (40)
Undecided: 9 (17)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Given that every other pollster has seen a very bumpy ride for Democrats as they make the transition from a registered voter model to a likely voter model, I was already expecting a steep drop for the Dems in Quinnipiac's Ohio polling (they're the last of the major pollsters to make the switch to LVs). But, dang, that is one unbelievably steep drop, not consistent with the 5-point-ish RV-to-LV difference seen elsewhere (including Qpac's Connecticut polling this week, or PPP's latest round of Ohio polling). Take the Senate race, for example: I have absolutely zero doubt that Lee Fisher is trailing in reality, and probably by at least 10, but the 20-point reversal plus these favorables suggest a decidedly GOP-ish sample (Fisher 29/36, Portman 44/20, and Obama 38/60).
SurveyUSA for WCMH (9/10-13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 40
John Kasich (R): 52
Other: 5
Undecided: 3
Lee Fisher (D): 40
Rob Portman (R): 49
Other: 7
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4%)
Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/16, likely voters, no trendlines):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44
John Kasich (R): 51
Undecided: 1
Lee Fisher (D): 41
Rob Portman (R): 52
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)
I hate to be that guy who cherrypicks polls, but SurveyUSA and particularly CNN/Time's polls seem more plausible here. Neither of them have trendlines, but CNN/Time is instructive because it looks at an RV model as well as an LV model. Among registered voters, they find Kasich leading 49-46 (a 4-point variance from the LV model) and Portman leading 49-42 (a 3-point variance). That's much more consistent with usual enthusiasm gap findings, so it's a good bet to assume that the Republicans are "only" leading in the 7-11 point range. Yay!
Well, Ted Strickland knows how to fight back. He rolled out an internal poll showing a 3-point lead... for John Kasich?!? (It's from the Feldman Group, and the toplines are 48-45). Given the Raul Labrador rule, and on top of that, the fact that Strickland is the incumbent, that internal poll doesn't leave me feeling any more confident than before. The Strickland camp is rolling out two new ads and is also benefiting from a huge AFL-CIO direct mail blitz on their behalf, but given the national climate, it looks like money alone isn't going to fix these races. |
