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NY-20: Murphy Leads by 17

by: James L.

Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 10:00 AM EDT


Siena (9/12-14, likely voters, no trend lines):

Scott Murphy (D-inc): 54
Chris Gibson (R): 37
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4%)

A surprisingly impressive spread.

UPDATE: Crosstabs available here.
James L. :: NY-20: Murphy Leads by 17
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NY-20: Murphy Leads by 17 | 47 comments
I just picked up my first batch of Murphy signs
last night, the past few years I have been a roadsing warrior for Gillibrand and Murphy. I big part of my "mission" was to make sure my neighbor, ex-Congressman John Sweeney, had to look at plenty of signs whichever way he drove from his house. Of course with his license suspended I may have to rethink this.

Nah!

LOL
Oh, Sweeney and his troubles...

Anyway, I think the hapless NY GOP can stick a fork in this one.  John Hall is a better target for them, even Bill Owens might be likelier to lose than Murphy.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Wow what typos in my message
Sorry for that. But definitely, Owens and Hall have more to worry about than Scott Murphy this year.

[ Parent ]
Hall definitely
Owens should be ok with two legit opponents.
[ Parent ]
Is Hoffman staying in?
I thought he was bleeding support as his backers thought he ran a crummy campaign and Doheny is pure enough that they don't want the vote split again and that doheny won fair and square.  

Owens straight up against Hoffman or in a three way is a win, against Doheny straight up, it's probably "lean GOP".

[ Parent ]
He still hasn't conceded the primary
As far as I know.  Absentees have closed the margin with Doheny.
[ Parent ]
does he have the conservative
Ballot line again though?  Everything I've read is he's sticking it and giving us the freebie.
[ Parent ]
Looks like
He's staying in no matter what accrording to this article. Conservative Party chair is trying to claim he can win a 3-way race. Hoffman definitely just has the Conservative line while Doheny has GOP and IP. I'm pretty sure Owens has Dem and WFP, it was just Arcuri and McMahon they ditched as far as I can recall. It could definitely cost Doheny the election thought if Hoffman pulls 5-8%.

http://www.watertowndailytimes...

[ Parent ]
Really? Why do you say that? I can perhaps buy a tossup but Leans Republican seems like a stretch.
The big three forecasters all have Leans Dem as do I.
[ Parent ]
Hoffman
is still the conservative party candidate in NY-23, so a repeat of the 3-way race last year could still happen.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
Hoffman
Hoffman is definitely not legit this cycle. He has the Conservative line but Doheny has the GOP and the Independence Party line (which Owens had last year). Also Doheny can self-fund and Hoffman has no money now that he's not the national tea party darling. From what I can tell people are sick of him in the North Country and he's such a terrible candidate there's not much he can do to change that (there's a reason the GOP chairs didn't pick him a year ago, he's an awful candidate). I expect NY-23 to be very close and Hoffman to do pretty poorly.  
[ Parent ]
Hoffman
If they're so sick of him, how come he came within 600 votes or so of winning the primary?
[ Parent ]
The fact he barely lost the primary
Suggests he still has a following. Agree he won't do well but he will do well enough to make it impossible for Doheny to win.  
[ Parent ]
Agree, his primary strength plus have the CP line will ensure he registers more than...
...one percent or so.  Even if he gets low single-digits, that might be enough.

And for the record, I don't write off Owens breaking 50% anyway.  He seems to be in better shape than a lot of Dems in marginal districts.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Actually...
I am pretty sure last year Dede had the Independence Party line, but the IP chairman endorsed Owens after she did.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
To me, Siena is the gold standard in NY
Murphy's Law is with him....

(sorry, couldn't resist.)

No, it's Scott's Law
Remember, the upset victories of Scott Murphy, Scott Brown, Scott Lee Cohen, and now Rick Scott?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Scott McAdams?
I hope!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
hopefully this year's Murphy's Law
Young Congressmen named Murphy from swing districts will get reelected easily.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Good news for me when I run for something!
[ Parent ]
Regarding
the New York House delegation...I almost want to lose one (Besides NY-29) to shore up other borderline upstate districts.

Regarding Murphy: I am happy he's winning. He's only 40, so maybe in 40 more years, he'll be the Louise Slaughter on upstate NY.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Though MUCH more conservative
then Louise))
[ Parent ]
Thank you very much
Moves to Favored.
Nice to see Murphy pulling away...
And nice to see NY Dems looking so great! Sure, Hall & Owens have more work to do, but hopefully they're up to the task.

It'd be a real shame to lose NY-20, but I guess Murphy really is ready to continue where Gillibrand left off. (Oh, and hers, Schumer's, and Cuomo's coattails will hopefully also be of help.)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

This all goes back to an epic recruitment FAIL by NY GOP
I really believe if the NY GOP went with John Faso instead of Tedisco in the Special election Faso would have won.

How the NY GOP didnt go all out to recruit Faso to run is beyond me.

This was the best and probably last shot the GOP had to win this seat.

My guess if Murphy win re-electio and Hall loses in NY-19 you'll see NY-20 and NY-19 swap Republicans for Democrats in redistricting.

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I don't agree, hindsight is 20-20 but Tedisco looked like a great recruit at the time......
There was no reason way back in the first half of 2009 to foresee an anti-establishment sentiment hurting Republicans, after they were booted completely out of power across the country.

Tedisco seemed like a safe choice to me, and I figured he would win.

And I think he actually would have won except he simply ran a terrible campaign.  That's something you never really know, you don't know for sure whether someone will run a good campaign until they actually do it.  After all, I never thought Coakley would "pull a Coakley" until she actually did it; you figure people who've won elections know how to win elections.  And has John Faso ever won an election?  Tedisco did, even if only for state legislature and nothing bigger.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah I agree
Tedisco is a pretty standard candidate that either party would put up in swing districts. Murphy winning that district showed that it has moved from being a Republican one to more Democratic leaning. Tedisco did not run the best campaign, but there were not significant flaws either.  
[ Parent ]
Are you kidding me?
Tedisco is the Martha Coakley of Republicans. He started off with a 2:1 lead and sat doing nothing for two months while Murphy hammered him relentlessly for refusing to take clear positions on the major issues and introduced himself positively to voters.  
[ Parent ]
As I said
He did not run the best campaign, but he was a fairly ordinary candidate. It certainly was not a recruitment failure.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I don't see any conflict between your comment and jwaalk's comment, so...
...I don't know where "are you kidding me" comes from.  He's right, and so are you.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Tedisco and Scozzafava were actually at least decent picks.
Tedisco didn't run a good campaign, and...Scozzafava got caught up in a noodle incident.

But on paper, both should have been strong candidates, so they aren't fail-picks.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
By "strong"
I meant "reasonably decent", since Tedisco was the state house minority leader (which should have meant he knew how to do politics), and Scozzafava should have been liberal enough to win over lots of crossover support.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Faso is a gadfly
with huge unfavorables who got crushed and humiliated by Eliot Spitzer in 2006. It would have been stupid to nominate him.  
[ Parent ]
NO!
Faso was the Assemblyman who respresented that district. He's quite well known and fairly popular there.

Unlike Tedisco Faso actually live in NY-20 and Faso is a better campaigner and fundraiser than Tedisco is.

And while he did get blown out by Spitzer in 2006 keep in mind Faso was almost elected NYS Comptroller in 2002 (he lost by only a few points statewide to Alan Hevesi).

BTW, speaking of hindsight what's up with the records of the 2 guys who beat Faso? After electing the disgraced Hevesi and Spitzer dont you think NYers might have has some buyers remorse.

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[ Parent ]
No. I don't think so.
I know several moderate Republicans in suburban NY. One from Dutchess, another in Winchester, and another in Manhattan. They all revile Faso. What they've told me is that all moderate to liberal Republicans and independents hate Faso. I've had a few tell me that they would have voted for David Patterson rather than vote for Faso, so take it for what you will. He has rather high unfavorables and the stench of a two loser, I understand quite well why he wasn't selected by the Party Committees.  
[ Parent ]
Disagree
I think not pickig Faso was a GOP gift to the Dems.

Faso is an inteligent fiscal conservative. He's got the profile of a winning GOP candidate this cycle. One who can talk about taxes and jobs without looking like a hack or nutjob.

Tedisco came across as the typical Albany insider hack and he still almost won. It would be real hard to paint Faso with that same brush. Furthermore I think Faso would have done a much better job marshalling the tea party discontent into votes. And the Spitzer and Hevesi scandals would have played to his benifit in the election as a sort of buyer remorse told ya so.

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[ Parent ]
I think it was too early in the cycle
Before the Teabaggers really got going. That wasn't until August 2009.
[ Parent ]
Where's Winchester?
Do you mean Westchester?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Next House Analysis
This seat will move to Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic whereas the more metro New York seats will be moving more favorably towards the Republicans.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
Take a look at the crosstabs
Here. Gillibrand is still doing great in her old district (62% favorable).  
She won her last race there 62-38
Of course we will see an ad featuring her supporting Murphy.
[ Parent ]
Fun fact
Gillibrand won the most votes of any House candidate in NY in 2008. Even more than those NYC congressmen who win 90%+ of the vote.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't sleep on any upstate house races.
He's in good shape or at least is in good shape in this poll but it all comes down to turnout and people showing up despite a so far non-competitive Senate and Governor's race.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
I doubt the smelly mailers
are going to do much to encourage the base.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Excellent that's all that needs to be said
Murphy is over 50, leads by a decent amount and the poll was conducted by a independent and credible source so you don't have to take the poll with a grain of salt like you have to do with internal. I wasn't worried about Scott Murphy's chsnces but i'm glad Siena conducted a poll to show where there race is going with less than 50 days away. Now if they can poll NY-23 that would be great.
As well as Hall's district.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
PPP already did that this week
He's down by two to Nan Hayworth. But not at 50.
[ Parent ]
NY-20: Murphy Leads by 17 | 47 comments

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