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SSP Daily Digest: 9/16

by: Crisitunity

Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 3:57 PM EDT


AR-Sen: Mason-Dixon takes another look at the Arkansas Senate race, on behalf of Arkansas News Bureau. Blanche Lincoln hasn't gotten any deader than she was before: she trails John Boozman 51-34, with 4 for other minor candidates (no real change from the last time they polled, back in May pre-primary, where Boozman led 52-35). Lincoln's faves have improved a smidge: now 30/47, instead of 28/53.

DE-Sen: Whooo, where even to begin? The national media is just starting to dig into Christine O'Donnell's gigantic and eminently mineable opposition file, with NPR and ABC detailing her history of getting fired from right-wing think tanks and her suing for discrimination in response, of IRS audits that she blamed on "thug politics" and liens that she blamed on "computer errors," of failure to pay for her college, and of using her campaign money to pay the rent on her house as it's also her campaign headquarters. We also know about her stance on AIDS prevention, thanks to helpful tipsters in the comments. At least O'Donnell's faring well in the fundraising department, raising $1 million since her victory (with Chris Coons raising only $125K, showing the harmful effects of a short-of-the-endzone victory dance). Not leaving things to chance, reports are coming in that Joe Biden will campaign for Coons "next week" and that the DSCC is starting to put money into Delaware, starting with an $85K buy in the Salisbury market.

The establishment isn't budging much on her: the state's virulently anti-O'Donnell GOP chair, Tom Ross, is staying in place (though calling for "unity"), and Karl Rove, although he sorta backed down in the face of a Rush Limbaugh broadside, is still challenging O'Donnell to be "honest" to voters about her difficulties... and again running through the list of all those difficulties in his media appearances. Meanwhile, O'Donnell strips.... her website, perhaps at the urging of the NRSC; after her nomination, all issues stuff vanished and it just became a donation ask. Still, Harry Reid seems to be doing all he can to fuck this up, issuing a strange quote that should play right into the whole "Obama/Reid/Pelosi agenda!!1!" messaging, expressing enthusiasm for Chris Coons but calling him his "pet."

NV-Sen, NV-Gov (pdf): Part of the CNN/Time onslaught yesterday was polls of Nevada (which we're relegating to the digest, as this state, as we've complained before, is veering rapidly into over-polled territory). This raised some eyebrows for showing a Sharron Angle lead over Harry Reid (42-41, with 5 for Scott Ashjian) among LVs, but that's only a point or three off from the narrow band of results that Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen have been consistently generating. (Reid leads 42-34-7 among RVs.) Many people (starting with Jon Ralston) also seemed surprised by some crosstabs weirdness, showing the race a dead heat in Democratic-favorable Clark County but giving Reid a big lead in swingy Washoe County. Brian Sandoval leads Rory Reid 58-31 in the Gov race.

CA-Gov: It's official: Meg Whitman is now the biggest self-funder in political history, having shown that piker Michael Bloomberg how it's done. She gave her campaign another $15 million, which brings her personal spending on the race to $118 million overall.

CO-Gov: Dan Maes just picked up Scott McInnis's former campaign manager, George Culpepper, so it seems like the local GOP establishment isn't totally abandoning him. The Colorado Independent has an in-depth piece, though, with a more nuanced look, based on interviews with at least a dozen county GOP chairs. Some of them fully back Maes, some grudgingly do so, some back Tom Tancredo, and some are still in a state of shock.

GA-Gov: After doing some pushback yesterday, Nathan "Let's Make a" Deal had to admit today that, yes, he is in some personally dire financial straits, saying his debts are even bigger than the $2.3 million loan that's outstanding... but also saying that he isn't releasing any more financial records to the press. It also turns out that he never disclosed that loan to the state Ethics Commission on his financial disclosure form, which he's now scrambling to update.

MI-Gov: EPIC-MRA's out with yet another poll of the Michigan gubernatorial race; I think we can start relegating their frequent polls of this pretty-much-out-of-reach race to the digest, too. They give Rick Snyder a 53-29 lead over Virg Bernero (a slight improvement for Snyder over 51-29 three weeks ago).

UT-Gov: OK, what kind of a world is it when we're faring better in the Utah governor's race than we are in Michigan? Not like this is a competitive race either, but it could be a good dress rehearsal for a 2012 rematch (remember that this 2010 race is a special election). Dem Peter Corroon trails Gary Herbert by "only" 21 points, 52-31, in a poll taken by Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News and KSL. The numbers haven't really changed since their previous poll in April (where Herbert led by 20).

CA-11: As with 2008, Jerry McNerney rolled out endorsements from some local elected Republicans, as part of a list of 16 county supervisors and mayors who are backing him. Maybe most notable is the backing from the mayor of Manteca (or, in Spanish, Lard), Willie Weatherford, who had previously backed GOP primary loser Brad Goehring.

CO-03: Here's a boost for John Salazar, in a suddenly-tough race in this rural western district against Republican Scott Tipton: he got the backing of the National Rifle Association, with an "A" rating.

IA-02: Another warning sign for David Loebsack: the Mariannette Miller-Meeks campaign is out with another internal poll, showing her creeping closer than her previous one. The Tarrance Group poll has her trailing Loebsack by only 1 point: 41-40 (with 6 for a Libertarian). She could do some damage her with more money.

LA-02: Lawyer Ron Austin dropped out of the LA-02 race today, where he was an independent candidate. This is really the first I'd ever heard of him, so I can't imagine he'd have been much of a factor here; I can't glean whether he was running on the left or the right, but he is African-American, so that in itself may shift at least a handful of votes in Cedric Richmond's direction in what may yet turn out to be a close race. Two other no-name indies remain.

MD-01: One other internal poll got leaked to the Fix today, too, and this one's a pleasant surprise for the Dems. Frank Kratovil is still claiming a lead over Andy Harris, who just won the GOP nod for a rematch. Kratovil's poll by Garin-Hart-Yang gives him a 45-39 lead. (When I say "still," Kratovil released an earlier internal with a 5-point lead. Harris has released two internals of his own giving him a lead.)

MO-04: Here's the good news: Ike Skelton got a shared endorsement from Missouri Right to Life, along with GOP challenger Vicky Hartzler. The bad news is: Skelton has generally had that endorsement to himself in the past.

NY-14: Give Reshma Saujani credit for one thing: she's persistent. She's already announced that she'll try again in 2012 to unseat Carolyn Maloney in the NY-14 Dem primary.

NY-23: Local teabaggers (or at least one of them) sound pretty upset with Conservative nominee (and GOP primary loser) Doug Hoffman, meaning that he, rather than the GOP nominee, may find himself in the third-wheel position this time around. Mark Barie, chairman of a local Tea Party organization criticized Hoffman for a listless campaign run by outsiders with little familiarity with the district. He threw his support behind Matt Doheny, who appears to have narrowly won the GOP primary despite a late close by Hoffman in late counting.

CfG: The Club for Growth launched a five-state buy in Senate races, to a total tune of $1.5 million (no word on specific allocation). The states under assault are Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

NRCC: Two different rounds of TV ad buys came from the NRCC today. The first one was in WA-03 ($900K) and NM-01 ($300K), and a second one covers PA-10 ($595K), NH-01 ($1 mil), NH-02 ($1 mil), FL-08 ($817K), FL-24 ($817K), and VA-09 ($?).

SSP TV:
CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer goes negative against Carly Fiorina in a new spot, hitting her on (what else?) her failed tenure at HP
MO-Sen: A new spot against Roy Blunt from Dem group Commonsense Ten (never heard of 'em, either) hits his consummate insider credentials
PA-Sen: Yet another ad from Pat Toomey, this one featuring an oppressed doctor who doesn't like HCR (who just happens to be a big Republican activist too, not the ad says that)
WA-Sen: Dino Rossi's first negative ad features him personally narrating an attack on Patty Murray (instead of using the off-camera voice of doom); he calls her "part of the problem"
NV-Sen: Harry Reid's newest TV spot, by way of fighting back against Angle's attacks on immigration issues, just goes ahead and says it: it calls Sharron Angle "crazy"
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo doesn't want to leave anything to chance despite his big lead (he has the money to burn, at any rate), and he's out with a new bio ad (not that he needs much introduction)
PA-Gov: Dan Onorato tries introducing himself to Pennsylvania again, this time with a shorter 30-second ad that helpfully lets people know how to pronounce his name
TX-Gov: Even Rick Perry's going negative: three different ads go after Bill White, two trying to tie him to Barack Obama and one attacking his handling of Hurricane Rita
VT-Gov: The RGA wades into Vermont with a negative ad against Peter Shumlin, hitting him on taxes
CT-04: Jim Himes has not one but two new ads, stressing his independence and debt hawkishness
KS-03: Stephene Moore's first ad plays up her day job as a nurse
ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy has two different anti-Rick Berg ads, one of which focuses on his crazy plans to drill for oil in Theodore Roosevelt National Park
NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster (who's now rebranded herself as "Annie Kuster") goes negative on Charlie Bass in her first ad, framing him as failed retread
NY-20: Scott Murphy's newest spot focuses on his own personal record of job creation as businessman before entering Congress
TX-17: Chet Edwards is out with a positive ad, touting his work on veteran's issues like VA health care
WA-02: John Koster tries to cram both a negative ad and a positive ad into a discordant 30 seconds
WI-07: Sean Duffy plays up his lumberjack credentials, saying he'll "take an ax" to Washington (I'll admit, that's kinda clever)

Rasmussen:
CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 49%
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 53%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 42%
NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 44%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 51%
NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 39%, Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%
WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 51%, Dino Rossi (R) 46%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/16
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That MI-Gov poll just hurts
It would be nice if Bernero could work some of that late surge to victory magic in the general too, but I'm not terribly optimistic about it at this point.  Other than ducking debates (which for most voters is a minor-to-non-issue), Snyder just isn't doing anything that endangers his chances of winning.  Blast...

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

It's not over
This poll shows pretty much the same results as the last one.  Snyder has been on the air since February and people are familiar with him.  If people aren't committed to voting for him after 7 months, I don't think they'll see/heard anything that will change their minds in next 6 weeks.  There's a fairly large number of undecided Democratic voters (17%).  I think most of them will end up voting for Bernero.  

Bernero has made big comebacks before.  Two to three weeks before the primary, Dillon was leading Bernero by 10-20%.  It will be an uphill battle but Bernero can win.  Regardless of who wins, it will be a single digit win.    


[ Parent ]
You keep telling us this, and I want to believe you
But even with the undecideds all going to Bernero, Snyder still wins.

I know you're from Michigan, and I realize Bernero made a comeback before, but that was against a conservative-leaning guy in a Democratic primary. This seems like more than an uphill battle to me - as was pointed out in the digest, Bernero is more behind in this poll that the Democratic candidate for governor of Utah is.

But I'm willing to be surprised.  


[ Parent ]
If I was betting...
I would go with Snyder winning.  People, however, mistakenly think it's over.  It's not.  Things can change and many in Michigan expect polls to narrow:

As Labor Day marked the kickoff of Michigan's race for governor, both candidates and most analysts agreed on one thing: Republican Rick Snyder's huge lead over Democrat Virg Bernero will tighten by Election Day.

"Races in Michigan always tighten," said political consultant John Truscott, who in 1990 helped John Engler overcome a 20-point gap in the polls to defeat incumbent Gov. James Blanchard. "It could very easily be down to single digits within a month."

http://detnews.com/article/201...

In 2006, all the blogs said Granholm was a goner.  DailyKos referred to her as the most endangered Democrat in the country.  She won by 14%.

My point is this race isn't a runaway for Snyder.  This is why he's so scared to debate Bernero.  Snyder may win but it won't be by 20%.    


[ Parent ]
WA-Sen
That's four out of the last five polls showing Murray up.  

Murray
is beating the shit out of Rossi on his statement that he would repeal Wall Street Reform.  Feeling pretty good about Murray overall.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Anything on the seminars yet?


[ Parent ]
Nope, not in her ads yet that I've seen.
They're all either puff pieces on how she created jobs (one related to a hospital and one Boeing) or beating Rossi over the head for being Wall Street's bitch.

Rossi's argument so far: "She's a Democrat and she votes like one."  If that's all he's got, Murray should win.

My impression from watching all of the ads is that Murray is running circles around him so far.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
"She's a Democrat and she votes like one."
Not a winning message in a blue state.

[ Parent ]
Hey, give Rossi a break
"Winning messages" are not his forte, as evidenced by him hoping third time's the charm.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
To clarify,
he's hitting her on the same broken record Republican themes: failed stimulus, expensive HCR, job losses, etc.  He's generically running against the Democratic agenda of the past two years.  I'm slightly oversimplifying by saying: "She's a Democrat and she votes like one," but I'm sure you get the drift.  He doesn't seem to have anything unique to Murray, which is why I think she'll survive.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Cook moved CT-Sen to Tossup
Even I have to admit that's pretty premature, much as I have held that this race will be a major thorn in Democrats' sides right up until election day.

This race has been all over the map: started at Likely D (Dodd's too entrenched to lose) then crept its way to tossup (AIG, Dodd's part of the problem) and to Lean R (national blowback against Democrats in late '09.) Dodd gets out and the unflappable Blumenthal enters, and we're back to Likely D. Then the NYT report, the sky is falling, Tossup again. But Blumenthal does a nice bit of damage control, McMahon forces Simmons out of the race, and everything quiets down as we move to Likely D yet again. Finally, McMahon's money allows her to slowly erode Blumenthal's standing, and according to Cook, tossup once more.

This race, and McMahon's movement, is really all about money. She has it and is willing to spend it in a very expensive state, and so far Blumenthal has shown no interest in putting his personal fortune on the line as well. He needs money--either from his bank account or from the DSCC--to put McMahon away before she can make this any closer.


20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


If Rasmussen has him up 9
I am more than confident calling this strongly Leans.

[ Parent ]
Well
I was under the impression that Cook was the one that was so eager to switch the race to Tossup after the Blumenthal miniscandal.  If that's the case, he might just still be smarting from being forced to change it back to Likely D.

[ Parent ]
Sandoval up 13 or 27?
Tells me Harry Reid is still ahead.

Jon Ralston reassures that the big Sandoval margins are bunk, it's a LOT closer than that......
Ralston says there are credible private polls that show the race in the high single-digits, and perhaps it could be in the low double-digits.  But he confirms the 2 recent polls showing Sandoval up by almost 30 points are absurd.

Reid is winning, no doubt.

Oh, and that ad answering Angle's immigration salvo, it's just awesome.  Reid has been great on offense, but defense is harder, and this might be the best "reversal" ad I've ever seen.  It hits hard and efficiently, the keywords are easy to remember, the narration is crisp, the information answering Angle's charge is persuasive, and the pivot back to Angle to hit her on social security is smooth.

God I want to know who makes Reid's ads, I will forever acknowledge them as the best political admaker out there.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Um, big mistake in my OWN pivot in the 2nd paragraph......
I meant to say "Sandoval is winning, no doubt."

By the time I typed that, I had Harry on the brain, thus the errant keystroking.

The rest of my comment was about Harry.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
this year in NV you need first and last names
  at least for Harry and Rory Reid. With Sharrron Angle its a question of how many extra 'r's you want to put in her first name. I'm a bit restrained, using only three, but I have seen as many as seven...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
No need for retraction...
So long as you're talking about Harry. ;-)

Actually, I wouldn't completely count Rory out yet. He does have A LOT OF MONEY, and he's just starting to really hit hard on Sandoval. But yes, I am wondering if it's "too little, too late"...

Right now if I had I guess where everyone is REALLY at here, I'd say Harry is up 5, Rory is down 10, and Dina (Titus) is up 5. No doubt the Senate race is close, but Angle's campaign just isn't pro and Harry has the best workin' it here.

And Sandoval lucked out on Rory not kicking his campaign into high gear earlier (when it really could have helped)...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Whereas I express a loss of respect for Charlie Cook......
Cook changed his CT-Sen rating today to "toss-up."

Where I lose respect is in reading the write-up explaining why.  It's head-scratching because nothing in it actually justifies calling the race a toss-up.  All the information in the write-up itself justifies "lean D."

Cook argues McMahon has slowly closed over the past few months.  Yup, that's correct.

The write-up points to McMahon's money and ads.  Yup, that's correct.

But the write-up explains the polling as follows:  the new Q-poll shows a 6-point race; Democrats answered with a poll showing Blumenthal up 15 by a pollster Cook writes he respects and doesn't actually question; and private Republican polling has Blumenthal up in the "high single digits."

You read the Cook write-up, and it's effectively an argument for moving the race from "likely D" to "lean D."  But no, he moves it all the way to toss-up.

I really don't know if I can trust his ratings with this kind of silliness.  It's fine if Cook has information to justify a rating that surprises me, but when the very information he cites doesn't support his rating, that's pretty bad analysis.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


I think it has to do with the movement he is seeing
Cook probably sees the momentum going towards McMahon. If Blumenthal was a sitting Senator I am sure Cook would have this race as Lean Dem but since it is open he moves it to Toss Up.

Basically this isnt anything we didnt already know. Weather this is Slightly Lean Dem or just Toss Up is quibbling with words.

Right now Blumenthal is the favorite but McMahon could pull an upset IMHO.  

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
I think it has to do with
Cook wanting attention in the Beltway media.  It's a cheap headline when he does this, just like the other five times he's moved this race, and just like when he moved the PA-12 special for no reasonably articulated reason.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
It's not quibbling with words at all. This race isn't a toss-up. When you admit...
...McMahon's own side has Blumenthal up in "the high single digits," and Democratic polling has it well into the double-digits, that is NOT toss-up territory.

The new Q-poll didn't actually show any tightening, either.  The Q-poll shifted from a RV model to a LV model, and that by itself explains the change from a 9-point margin to a 6-point margin.

Yes McMahon clearly isn't down by the same kind of margin as 3 months ago, but this is not a toss-up.

As far as "quibbling" goes, it's quibbling if a candidate is consistently up by a mid-single digit margin, barely on the edge of the error margin......in THAT case, you can argue between "lean" and "toss-up."

But there's no basis for calling CT-Sen a toss-up when ONE poll calls it a 6-point race with LVs, and everyone's private polling and all other public poling says Blumenthal leads by more than that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
He is only seeing what we see
As suggested above even the write-up doesn't support a tossup rating. Besides, since everybody knows Blumenthal and he has such good personal numbers he is as good as an incumbent anyway.

[ Parent ]
I expect to see him on MSNBC at any time talking about this.....
I would not be surprised to see him on "Hardball with Chris Matthews" tonight or tomorrow talking this up. Of course, Matthews will go along with the narrative.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
I
love CM coverage of policy most of the time but in terms of horse race stuff he is god awful.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Have to keep up the Dems are doomed narrative
Need to replace Castle with somebody.

[ Parent ]
It's a disgrace
The write up cites the pollster.com average at 51-43, which they call a seven point lead.  Since when is an eight point lead a tossup?  And why can't Cook do simple arithmetic?

[ Parent ]
I like Charlie Cook alot
And have alot of respect about him but one thing that irks me regsrding him is he's so quick to change a rating of a certain race by a single poll even if the needle is hardly moved (like in CT-Sen). I don't know if it's fear that motivates him or what but he's known for it.

[ Parent ]
Good News, Bad News
From a keyed-in guy from my original home state (Massachusetts).

Good News - The new three pronged strategy of hitting Republicans 1) SS privatization 2) tax cuts for the wealthy, and 3) outsourcing is REALLY working already. It resonates with voters who WILL vote in midterms.

Bad News - In MA10 he watched closely the vote totals because it had two competitive primaries, and it was 56k for Dems and 51k for GOP. That's not what internal polling was showing on either side. He thinks there's a "hidden" Republican vote, and the internals (on both sides) are still too conservative in projecting Republican enthusiasm.


MA-10
Funny you say that because I looked at those same numbers and came to the opposite conclusion. Especially as the vote isn't all in yet in the Dem primary. I've moved it to Leans Dem from tossup.

[ Parent ]
MA is Quirky
Unenrolled voters are more Republican leaning than you'd expect given the blue state qualities but don't seem to understand that they can vote in an open primary.

I think Keating will win because Perry is so flawed, but it's closer than you'd want it to be.


[ Parent ]
Open seat
Not a particulary overwhelming Dem district. 52-48 isn't bad really considering some of the turnout in similar seats in other states, Washington for example.

[ Parent ]
Keating needs to get some of the witnesses in that purse-snatching into a TV ad...
...for him.  I think there were several people involved, and since it's a D+5 district surely someone in that bunch is a good Democrat!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
MA-10
In races like this, the candidates matter more than they normally would.

Perry is not only two or three clicks to the right of the electorate, he's to some extent damaged goods. As the more tea-party friendly choice and the guy likeliest to get out of state money involved in the race, he was probably the right choice over the hack-tacular retread Joe Malone, but that doesn't make him anywhere close to an ideal candidate. (Scott Brown hit the equivalent of an inside straight.)

Being from a slightly different part of the state, Bill Keating's not really the best fit for this district, but voters in Massachusetts (Coakley notwithstanding) generally like prosecutors. Progressives may not be Keating's biggest fans, but those with long memories remember that Keating was a relatively lonely voice in the State Senate against Billy Bulger's crew back when they held sway on Beacon Hill.  

There are two independent candidates who are nominally Democrats but, as I explained in a previous thread, both are at least as likely to take votes away from Perry as they are to take votes away from Keating, assuming either gets any traction.

You never know how big the enthusiasm gap is going to be exactly, but I have this as Lean D thusfar.    

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
You HAD that race as toss-up???!!! I never would have done that without...
...giving the Republicans 50 seats.

Yes in this environment a bad Democratic campaign and a good Republican campaign can combine to throw MA-10 to the GOP, but IMO that combo is what one must assume to call it a toss-up.  I don't care how well Scott Brown did there, a race shouldn't be rated based on a single outlier.

Considering you've got us barely holding the House, I'm surprised you ever would've had MA-10 any worse than lean D.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Open seat
Odd things happen. Chellie Pingree should have won by much more than she did two years ago for but didn't for the same reason.

[ Parent ]
Brown won the district 60/40
As far as this race goes, Perry is a risky candidate. He's young, telegenic, and has that "change" feel to him that Malone didn't, but he has the incidents with the strip-searches as baggage. Keating is pretty much generic D at this point (the purse-snatcher heroics could not have come at a better time) and is from that more heavily populated northern part of the district.

Parochialism will play a big role, as Cape Cod (~35% of the district) is likely to break heavily for Perry, while Norfolk County (~25% of the district) should break strongly for Keating. That means Plymouth County, which leans Democratic but is the most Republican county in the state will be the deciding factor.

I have the race at Leans D just because this storyline has played out many times in Massachusetts: Strong Democrat + Equally Strong Republican = Comfortable Democratic Win.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
MA-10
I've had that race as a toss up all along.  Its a district that can easily flip and I should know....I live in it.  

Whether you want to accept the Brown results or not, you can't deny that Deval didn't fare much better in this district vs Healey.  Healey won 13 towns in the district even with Mihos on the ballot, Deval only got 50% in 12 of the towns in the district.  

Many sections of the distrcit are Represented by Republicans on the state level too.  

Also, there are 2 independents in the race, both are former Democrats.  Mary Anne Lewis is a former State Repand James Sheets is the former Mayor of Quincy, one of the areas where Dems need to win big to win this district.  

Despite Perry's flaws, and he has many, he convincingly won the Primary.  Keating will have many obstacles to overcome to win this.  I think he can do it, but it won't be as easy as you think.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
No one said it would be easy
Everyone said Keating will win, but no one said it will be a walk in the park. I seeing Keating winning closely because of who he is and Perry's flaws in his past.

[ Parent ]
I disagree
The statement was mad that it would take a good Republican campaign and a bad Democratic campaign for the GOP to win this race.  That is not the case.  Keating can very easily lose this race even if he doesn't run a bad campaign.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
There we respectfully disagree
Because flaws mean something and Perry's flaws can bring him down and give Keating the victory if he runs with it and runs a good campaign.  

[ Parent ]
we can do that
thats if Keating runs with it.  He can run a good campaign and not go negative on Perry.  

The real question is...Will it matter.  Perry won the primary big despite being beaten over the head with these flaws by Malone.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
I think it will matter
When Perry has to campaign in front of the entire electorate and in campaigns flaws matter and can drive down a man's campaign. Plus regarding Malone that wasn't a shock he beat him since he was a rethread and had baggage of his own.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the info. Both your good news and bad news are intriguing......
The House ad campaign strategy obviously is a national one because gobs of Democratic candidates across the country are using the same attacks in their ads:  outsourcing jobs with trade deals and tax breaks, social security privatization, and any crazy talk an opponent may have offered such at 17th Amendment repeal or other stuff.

I like the strategy intuitively, and I like the consistency across the country.  That's the definition of "message," when we keep repeating the same things repeatedly.  We haven't been very good at it the past couple years, so at least our TV ads do it better.

I figure, too, these attacks must have polled well in advance.

But you never know if it's working for real until you see if the ads and messages actually move numbers.  Hopefully they will.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
PA
Those three things you mention all sound like stuff that Sestak could use to attack Toomey. Has he not done this, or is it just not sticking for whatever reason?  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Sestak
Marches to the beat of his own drummer. He has a trusted inner circle that he listens to and follows their advice. It's worked for him in the past so it's hard to argue, but I'm not sure that the strategy he's previously used really fits his current campaign.

[ Parent ]
It worked against weak candidates
His electoral successes have all came against weakened candidates:  Curt Weldon (weird and aura of corruption), Craig Williams (grossly underfunded), and Arlen Specter (no explanation).

Toomey is beating Sestak in at least PA-6 and PA-8 based on the internal polls we have seen by margins equal to or higher than the margins he is losing statewide.  As I discussed two days ago in regards to NYC suburbs, this line of attack being used by the Democrats is not going to work in these areas and actually might push voters over the edge.  
Sestak needs to attack Toomey on something else in these areas unless he plans on ceding the Philly suburbs and the Lehigh Valley (which he practically has already) to Toomey.  

Sestak has two win three of the four suburban counties if he has a shot because he is going to fall flat in the T and nobody can win by just winning the southwest anymore seeing its been throughly depopulated and he would suffer from the same suburban problems he will suffer in the southeast.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
Very True
I have a intrest since i'm a PA guy(I live in PA-12 in Fayette County) but my opinion on Sestsk is he's a poor campaigner. I mean outside of a few D-trip ads he's been dark and I get the same crap in his e-mails on how he has the best ran campaign of all the Senate candidates and he frequently touts this poll from Franklin and Marshall having him tied with Toomey 38-38 whild all other pollsters have Toomey up close to 10 points. I think he thought Toomey was going to be a walk. He was wrong and sadly that's why I pegged this as a GOP takeover. Sestak can win, Toomey has said stuff that can be used againist him but i'm going to be frank with you...I don't think it's going to happen.

[ Parent ]
Heh, O'Donnell is distracting the conservatives away from
Sharron Angle.  Sending money to O'Donnell is like throwing money into a sink hole.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


But it's a fun sinkhole
And so very, very distracting. Christine O'Donnell! Hooray!

Christine O'Donnell WINS!

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Best picture I've seen all day
I give you props, good man.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
hahaha


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Harry Reid and Leadership
What are people's thoughts of Reid being able to stay on as Majority/Minority Leader in the Senate if he is re-elected this year? I mean he has been a horrible leader of the chamber, a disaster as spokesman for the caucus, and has provided plenty of gaffes like today's "pet" comment about Coons. Would the Democratic caucus in the Senate actually retain him as leader after seeing their ranks severely reduced with him at the helm? If so why?  

Democrat: TN-8

Yes
Senators themselves sing his praises apparently.

[ Parent ]
I don't agree with you at all, and I don't think Senate Democrats do, either......
I'm happy with Reid's leadership.  He's been remarkably good at steering legislation and getting it passed.  He's singularly responsible for making sure a big health care reform bill made it through the Senate.  He got Wall Street reform done, and so much more.  He has great relationships with Senate Democrats across the board.

Yes he has a big mouth that gets him in trouble, but frankly few of the gaffes are very big or remembered for long.  I'm sure his Senate colleagues roll their eyes at that, but they like him.

There's never been any rumor of Senate Democratic disgruntlement with Harry Reid.

He won't be forced out at all.

Now, maybe he'll decide to pass the torch so that he can do so on his own terms?  Maybe also to take one for the team in terms of helping the party's public image?  Reid is a great Democrat, and I wouldn't be shocked if he did that for his party.  I won't expect it, though, because he doesn't owe it to anyone.

The Democratic Party is the victim of circumstance this year for a horrible recession for which our party is not to blame, but being in complete power these 2 years we receive blame anyway.  That's life, that's democracy, life and democracy aren't promised to be fair.

Beyond that, if there is any blame to be placed, it's on the Obama Administration for a terrible and often nonexistent communications strategy that failed to tell the story of what's been happening these 2 years.  Obama has governed well but explained his governing very poorly.

Harry Reid is not blame for any of that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Communications
Talk of Plouffe replacing Axelrod at the WH. Shoulda been there from the start.

[ Parent ]
Best of several bad choices
Reid will remain leader because simply the choices are that bad.  Does anyone really want Schumer bossing them around?  Reid seems like he gets along with his colleagues and does not draw down the entire team with his personality.  Schumer could be an electoral liability elsewhere with his personality.

I also agree with the previous posters.  He is a victim of circumstances.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Evidence Shows ex-candidate Tarkanian
illegally collaborated with Angle campaign.  The NV Democratic Party has filed an FEC complaint.
For more info, read this:
http://nvdems.com/index.php/po...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I was robpolled last night by the DNC!!!......
I don't know what it is about me, but I get polled all the time.

Last year I got polled twice in June by the RNC for VA-Gov.  The first was a short robopoll right before the Dem primary, the second a live caller poll later in June.

Earlier this year I got polled, live caller, by a firm with an undisclosed client who I took to be Jeff Barnett, the Democratic nominee in VA-10.  The tip-off was that the last set of questions were negative message-testing against Frank Wolf, and there were no similar negative message-testing questions against Barnett.

Now I got a robpolled by the DNC for the midterm.  No named candidates, it just asked "Democratic" or Republican" House candidate in "your district."  It asked Obama job approval, my partisan ID, and demographic questions that conspicuously went into surprisingly great detail in pegging race.  After I initially picked "Asian-American" from a list of choices, the questions kept coming to narrow it down all the way to the exact country of ancestry (in my case "India," and yes Pakistan and Bangladesh each was a separate choice).  The poll then asked very specific questions about immigrant households, asking not just if I was born in the United States or was an immigrant, but in my case, after I said born in the U.S., it asked if both my parents were born in the U.S. or if at least one parent was born in another country (the latter in my case).  And if all that wasn't enough, the poll asked a detailed question about religion, with a ton of choices (I pressed "4" for "Hindu").

Fascinating stuff, I've never received an election poll like that.  I'm curious what results the DNC gets, but I'm sure I'll never know.  Since it's a robopoll, a low-cost option, I bet they have a huge sample.  I'm very happy they did this detailed a poll, because they need to stay ahead of the curve in learning as much as possible about the politics of every racial and ethnic and religious group in America.  Having this kind of information helps microtarget groups that are all varying degrees of liberal and Democratic.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Are you cell phone only or landline?


[ Parent ]
It was on my landline. I'm married with kids and would never...
...go cell phone only.  Only in dire financial straits would I do that.  With a family, you can't afford to lose or damage your only phone and be cut off in your own house.  We got a landline with 3 handsets plus our cells.  And with bundling, a landline is inexpensive these days.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Thanks, I guessed you'd have to have a landline
to have a chance get 4 (presumably random) polling calls like that.

[ Parent ]
MD-01: C'mon Kratovil.
If you win this, I have little doubt the state will redraw your district to be safer.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I dont know
When an incumbent is well under 50% in his own internals that is usually cause for concern. It just that in this cycle Dems are getting such bad news and poll results that even stuff that in any other cycle would look bad starts to look good to them.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
I dont know
When an incumbent is well under 50% in his own internals that is usually cause for concern. It just that in this cycle Dems are getting such bad news and poll results that even stuff that in any other cycle would look bad starts to look good to them.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
Once again
People moaned when there were no Dem internals now there are people still find ways to be negative. No win situation. By all accounts he should be toast the fact he isn't is encouraging.

[ Parent ]
I agree
Damned if you do, damned if you don't...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Senate forecast update later today
tweets Nate Silver.

His current Senate forecast is: 52.1 D, 47.5 R, 0.4 other.  (Sept 7th)

Any guesses on the new numbers?
Surely that "other" number will be moving down closer to zero.

Also, I hope Murkowski goes for the write-in campaign. That'll be a challenge for his modelling.


Hmmm 52 Dems come '11
I have them pegged in at 54-55.

[ Parent ]
Still say they get 7 max


[ Parent ]
I would take 7
Before the O'Donnell nightmare and Murray pulling away I had visions of 10 but now I think 7 is a very reasonable goal (ND, IN, AR, PA, CO, IL and WI.) That would make the Senate 52-48 going into 2012, which I think is pretty reflective of the country as a whole right now--more so than 60/40.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Here's my thought
Right now we have 59 seats with one vacant (WV)

Losses:

Arkansas
North Dakota
Pennsylvania
Indiana

Close ones we retain

Deleware
Nevada
Connecticut
Colorado
California
Washington
Illinois
West Virginia

Gain
Kentucky

On the Fence but probally not gain:
New Hampshire
Alaska

Overall 55-56 seats but although I think we will retain them, we can lose CO and IL.


[ Parent ]
Senate is a tough call because there are so many tight races.
Four - ND, AR, IN, PA - look like they're going to flip.

CO looks tough for us but we have a big $$$ advantage.  I expect Buck to win there though.

WI, NV, and IL are real tossups.  We really need a poll in WI, and I have no idea there.  Worried we have oversaturated the "crazy" meme in NV.  I suspect we'll pull through in IL because of undecided Dems (mostly) coming home, but there's a chance we won't.

Getting increasingly comfortable with CA and WA as Boxer and Murray seem to be running some resonant negative ads.

So I'm seeing 5-8.  I hope it's not 8, as that will set up the Ben Nelson/Lieberman defection that I fear.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
I'm sending some money to Feingold
Although the polls show that he's running neck and neck with Ron Johnson, I think in the end he will be reelected.  Nevertheless, I'm not resting on my gut feelings here...I'm sending him some moola.


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
There are a lot of tight races yes
But I see up retaining CO because of money, the strong upticket from Hick and Buck is very conservative.

They have polled WI and showed Feingold and having him in the lead but that hasn't been recently. Maybe it would be best for PPP to poll that and WI-Gov soon. I see Feingold winning because Feingold has been a good Dem and Johnson has came off crazy.

IL will be as close as NV but I see Alexi winning by 1-2 points because the tilt of the state and because of the stuff that has been happening with Mark Kirk.

NV, I don't think the crazy meme has been overplayed since Angle is a lunatic hence why alot of people wish she wasn't the one taking on Reid. But I see Reid pulling out a squeaker like in '98.

CA and WA, yeah your right, nothing to see there. The real races in those states will be CA-Gov and the two congressional races in WA.


[ Parent ]
Carzy meme
People on the ground of all persuasions seem to think he is doing slightly better than the polling suggests. That jibes with recent history where Democrats tend to outperform the final polls. I'm hoping Reid can build more of a lead when they debate. That should be worth watching.

[ Parent ]
Oops
Crazy. Nothing about the toilet.

[ Parent ]
Republicans need 9 for Lieberman to defect
If the Republicans get 9, Lieberman sits as an Independent Republican.  He will then run as an Indie in 2012.

Nelson does not flip.  He would get slaughtered in a Republican primary.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
Thats is Ben Nelson runs again
Remember in '06 they had to beg him to run for re-election. I see him retiring and his seat getting easily flipped like by someone like Heineman of even Adrian Smith.

[ Parent ]
Nelson retires
This seat goes Republican next time.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I know
I said that in my post.

[ Parent ]
my fear is
Nelson switches and retires.  If Republicans get that close, Lieberman will be dying to flip the chamber.  Nelson would be the most likely partner in crime.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
So he switches again
Because I believe before becoming Governor he was a Republican. I don't see this senerio playing out because I don't see it getting close, but if it does I can see those two play kingmaker and if that happens shame on CT for re-electing him when he lost the primary brcause we all knew he a real shady pol.

[ Parent ]
Nelson?
Nelson's first elected office was the Gubernatorial race in 1990 and he ran as a Democrat.

He was politically active before then, but I've seen nothing to indicate he was a Republican.


[ Parent ]
doubtful
Nelson- what can the Repubs offer him he doesn't have now? Nothing. He ain't getting a chairmanship from them. He'll likely just spend the next 2 years as a Dem being a thorn before retiring.

Lieberman- more complex- he's a douchebag on some high profile stuff, but his Dem voting record is good in general. Again what can he be offered by the GOP he doesn't have now? Heck, Reid let him keep his chairmanship despite campaigning for the enemy McCain; he apparently has Reid by the balls.


[ Parent ]
Neither will defect
It's not like Nelson has any prayer of winning a Republican primary (and he has to know it, plus why would he stay a Democrat for as long as he has in a place like Nebraska if he didn't genuinely agree with the Democrats on something over the Republicans).

The same is true of Lieberman, if he gives the Senate to the Republicans, he loses all chance of winning re-election, the Republicans don't trust him (so he can't win a primary) and it'll piss off enough Democrats that he'll never beat anyone (especially in a presidential year).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
The new 538 forecast: 52.7 D, 47.1 R, 0.2 other
One full seat move towards the good guys.

THANKS CHRISTINE!

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...


[ Parent ]
Sorry if this sounds like a stupid question
But nate has for the Dems .7 and the GOP .1 and the .2 for others. What does that mean?

[ Parent ]
Nate runs a simulation 1000 times and takes the average
He's got a pretty complex linear regression model that takes into account polling, demographics, past party performance, and other key factors of the state. He runs the model many, many times (1000 I think) and then averages all the individual results.

The 0.2, in this case, really means that Charlie Crist has about a 20% chance of winning.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Damn he's good he really is
Despite the fact he works for the NYT now. Now the .7 for us, who's that directed to?

[ Parent ]
The .7 for us is nothing, it's just the mathematical average. The reason .2 refers to Crist is...
...that Crist is the only independent with ANY chance of winning, so he's isolated that way and no one else figures into the average.

But for the parties, the decimal places are just averages taken out to a decimal place.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
52.7 Democratic Senators
is just the average of Silver's 100,000 computer simulations he runs to make his predictions.
You can round the decimal place up or down to the nearest whole number if you like.  That would be a forecast next term in the Senate of:
53 Democrats, and
47 Republicans.

[ Parent ]
I see thanks for clearing that up man.


[ Parent ]
What's with Anne Kuster dumping the "McLane" in her name?
Actually, I would think for the general election it would be an asset -- she is the daughter of two well-known (moderate) Republican politicians in the state -- her mother Susan McLane (a state Senator) and father (mayor of Concord and NH Executive Council member). Both were revered figures among NH Republican moderates - both had heated battles with former wingnut governor Meldrim Thomsen.

Going up against Charlie Bass and needing to win over independent and moderate voters, you would think that campaigning with the family name would be somewhat of a positive thing?

Any idea what's up with that?  


Simplification I guess


[ Parent ]
Thats what i'm getting
Although her nsme isn't hard to remember as someone like say...Shelley Sekula Gibbs for a good example.

[ Parent ]
She's had an identity crisis since the get-go
All the official literature (on the ballot, on the header of her website, on signs) has always read "Ann McLane Kuster." Yet she always refers to herself as "Annie Kuster" both in her ads and when referring to herself on the website (i.e "Meet Annie" "Stand With Annie" "Annie was here today...")

It's probably that she's always preferred to go by "Annie Kuster" yet filed under her full name, so displays that officially since that's what's going to be on the ballot in November.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Well Charlie's
dad Perkins, (who is still around), represented this area in the 1950s, and his granddad was Governor of the state from 1911-1913, last governor before Benson to lose reelection, (though to be fair he lost because he threw the state GOP into disarray when he backed Theodore Roosevelt.

What's odd is that NH is still somewhat of a hold out, (though much more liberal than it was in decades past), in NE. The only area where Democrats were traditionally competitive in New England, yet formerly rock-ribbed states around it have gotten far more progressive, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Vermont for example.  


[ Parent ]
WTH are conservative candidates running against the 17th amendment?!
Honestly, I don't see any logical reason to put the election of senators back in the hands of easily-corrupted state legislatures.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Also, for candidates claiming to be populists
They sure are supporting quite a few anti-populist ideas.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I say we repeal the 17th
along with Article One, Section 3.

[ Parent ]
WAA IL-Sen
http://weaskamerica.com/2010/0...

Kirk 39-36. It was 39-33 last month.


Lots of Dem undecideds here
and Kirk doesn't seem to be capturing Indies the way some Republican candidates are, although he leads.  This is the toss-up of toss-ups.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
For Kirk to win, I think he needs to be up about 6 heading into election night
In '98, Carol Moseley-Braun was down ten points prior to election night, and she lost by only three. To be fair, I dunno if Gianniaoulias has a Cook County GOTV operation as sterling as CMB's, but I suspect he's over-perform nonetheless. Kirk needs to have at least a mid-single-digit lead to prevail, methinks.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
That's dubious, there's no pattern of Democrats outperforming Illinois polling......
Even Obama got the same exact margin as his Real Clear Politics final polling average, a 24.7-point margin over McCain.  The final polls were on target.  There was a surge at the end, but that was for their home state favorite in a year they hated Republicans already.

I otherwise can find no history besides possibly what you cited about CMB of Democrats overperforming polling.

If anything this year, we can only hope Alexi is tied or narrowly ahead in the final week, and that an anti-Democratic surge of undecideds and soft voters doesn't knock him out.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Nate's Post Wayback
In the waning days of MASEN, Nate had a post about how in states with Cook PVI +6 or more, the favorable candidate overperformed his polling.

I don't know whether he specifically covered IL, but there was a pretty wide range of states making me conclude that the pattern was significant.


[ Parent ]
I'm sorry for being a tad rude
But why again are we debating WAA polls. There polling they have done recently have been arabic and head scratching. Espically in there congressinal polling.

[ Parent ]
Yeah that's been a problem with there polling as well
The mods brought that up when they started to post WAA polls.

[ Parent ]
I'm thinking about donating to Chris Coons


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


You should
He's a good candidate. The day after O'Donnell beat Castle I donated to his campaign.

[ Parent ]
Just sent him 10 dollars.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Hello Everyone
Been reading alot over the years at SSP but decided to finally register and join the community with the others. Look forward to engaging in good debates with the regulars like Conspiracy and Cyclone and Republicans like Ryan and co.

IA-2 What do you think. I for one don't trust internals from any party for the obvious reasons which is why I don't believe Loebsack is only up by 1 over MMM espically when 13 days ago a poll conducted by a GOP polling firm showed Loebsack (along with Boswell and Braley) up by more. I donated $50 (alomg with $100 to Patrick Murphy) for the hell of it but I have a feeling he won't need it because according to Open Secrets he has about 3x more money than MMM but I wanted thoughts since no one here brought it up and i'm suprised.


Welcome
Thanks for the kind words. I look forward to reading your input.

[ Parent ]
IA-2 is an odd race
Loesbeck is not known as a good campaigner, but his opponent has almost no money. I'd probably rate Loesbeck as the favorite, but I think you made a good investment since he will probably need money to make up for his lack of campaign skills.

That said, I don't believe the internals either.

A woman named Desmoinedem is our resident expert on Iowa politics. She also has a site called Bleedingheartland.com, which contains lots of interesting information. Hopefully she will comment on your post.  


[ Parent ]
No money is right
She barely has 100k on hand while Loebsack has over 400k on hand. I know who Desmoinesdem is but didn't know she was a female (thought she was a guy sorry). Yeah she provides good news on her site and on here espically regarding IA-Gov and Sen.  

[ Parent ]
no problem
I even fool the Blog Gender Analyzer, though that's pretty easy because it tags just about every female political blogger as a man.

Every few months I run Bleeding Heartland through the blog gender analyzer again, and I've never failed to be tagged as a man. I just got this:

We think http://www.bleedingheartland.com is written by a man  (76%).


[ Parent ]
Cool feature!
They're right about SSP at least: they say there's an 87% chance it's written by a man (or 4 men.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
For the record, I'm an Iowa native with family there and know its politics pretty well......
desmoinesdem is there on the ground and she's going to have more knowledge than me on many things, but I bet among the regulars I'm the 2nd-most knowledgeable person here on Iowa politics behind her.

Not to toot my own horn, but I do know the state, and I still have three straight-Democratic voting family members living in Marshalltown.

Regarding IA-02, Loebsack is weak enough personally that he could get upset in a year like this if he doesn't run as strong a campaign as he can.  He was a sacrificial lamb in 2006 and was an accidental winner thanks to the district's Democratic nature combined with the anti-Republican wave.  Since he was always weak, he'd be a goner for sure in a purple district, but the district is Democratic enough for him to win.  Miller-Meeks actually is a decent campaigner and some think arguably comes off better than him in public, if you take off partisan goggles on where they stand ideologically and on policy.

In a year like this, where election night will have surprises that almost always go against us, this seat is on the C-list of what I'd say are 30 or so barely-vulnerable (as opposed to clearly vulnerable) seats out of which I bet we lose 2-3.

That said, this is also a seat that Democrats would take right back in 2012 with a stronger candidate.  Miller-Meeks is no Leach, she's too conservative to survive more than one term.  This being Iowa's most left-leaning seat, much stronger Democrats than Loebsack will fight for the right to take it back, especially with Obama on the ballot (which I'm very convinced will again be a strength in 2012 regardless of his job approvals today).  Miller-Meeks will be one-and-done at best.

Yes there's redistricting, but that's nonpartisan in Iowa, done by computer, no gerrymandering allowed.  And it's very tough to draw this district without a strongly Democratic seat centered on uber-liberal Johnson County.  Iowa is losing a seat in redistricting, and the reality is that makes it even harder to make the seat any more conservative.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Very Good Post
Really it is, didn't know you lived in Iowa. Judging by your sig always thought you lived in VA.

Resgarding Loebsack your right he won by a fluke of all flukes. The Dems in '06 didn't even bother to field a candidate againist Jim Leach and Loebsack won the nom on a write-in basis and shocked us all by beating him. I mean we all knew that district was ours one day because it's D+7 and the bluest in IA just no one thought he could be the moderate and popular Jim Leach. He did. That said I think Loebsack will be fine. Other polling done on this district has shown him up by more than 1 point. It's a D+7 district so it would be a hard nut to crack for the conservative MMM to win plus there's money. Loebsack has over 400k on hand while MMM barely has 100K unless her fundraising gets better or outside groups come in she won't win. Out of all the districts we have i'm barely breaking a sweat on this one (same with Bruce Braley), Len Boswell that's another matter.


[ Parent ]
He's got a perfect name
DC/Cyclone. DC for Northern Virginia, Cyclone for Iowa (State.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I agree
For some reason before everyone here started putting where they lived I thought he lived in Cincinnati, OH because there a AA minor league hockey team there called the Cincinnati Cyclones. Didn't know where the Cyclone part of his name comes from (I follow Pitt so i'm not framiliar with Iowa State). Now I know.

[ Parent ]
Oh, I don't live in Iowa. I was born and raised there but moved away for law school in 1990 and...
...returned for a summer to a Des Moines law firm in 1992 before leaving the state for good.

I lived in D.C. for 15 years after school (in North Carolina, where I was very active in Democratic politics in my short time there), and moved with my wife and kids across the river to Northern Virginia 2 years ago.

Anyway, that's my geographical bio.

I do think if Loebsack wins, this is a year he might have to find himself thanking the state party's GOTV/early voting effort for it.  He's the kind of guy in the kind of district where he could lock down votes from soft Democrats and leaners early who otherwise might not vote this year or could break late for the GOP.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
That's a nice bio about you
And I agree with you regarding Loebsack.

[ Parent ]
we need more details on the poll
I am trying to find out the demographics of the sample to see if the age/gender/partisan breakdown looks anything like the IA-02 electorate.

I asked the Loebsack campaign for a comment and got this:

"I think we all learned our lesson in 2008 to not believe any internal polling having to do with Dr. Miller Meeks. She released her own polling just a few days before election day claiming she was in a statistical dead heat and then went on to get trounced by 18 points at the polls.  Dave Loebsack is continuing to fight for Iowa, working to bring good-paying jobs into the district, keep the tax burden low on families and small businesses, and protect Medicare and Social Security. Iowans have already rejected Dr. Miller-Meeks at the polls once before - manufactured polling numbers didn't mean anything that time, and they don't mean anything this time." - Loebsack Campaign Manager Greg Richardson

They included a Cedar Rapids Gazette story published on November 1, 2008, about Miller-Meeks touting an Eagle Media Group poll showing Loebsack 45.4, MMM 42.7. A few days later Loebsack won 57-39 with a few points going to the Green Party candidate (who isn't running this year).


[ Parent ]
I like to know as well
Because The Fix just posted the poll numbers and approve/disapprove numbers for Loebsack and MMM. While the polls the GOP group done on him Braley and Boswell they disclosed everything you would want in a brakdown. I think Loebsack will win because of the district, money and candidate but I would like to know more about the breakdown of this poll. If you get more details, let us know. BTW you do a fantastic job reporting political news regarding your state espically regarding IA-Gov. Keep up the good work.

[ Parent ]
Miller-Meeks was thinking about dropping out of the race
a couple of weeks ago because her husband had lost his job. She has some interesting views on health care since she is a ophthalmologist and her husband the works in health care field. She is actually declining health care coverage.
http://www.press-citizen.com/a...

Anyway, we may even see American Academy of Ophthalmology PAC
OPHTHPAC get involved and spend some money in this district like they did last time.  


[ Parent ]
Shoot I didn't know she was thinking of dropping out
Because her husband lost his job. Dosen't give her a clear head when it comes to being on the campaign trail. I think Loebsack will win but if MMM wants any chance of even coming close to him she'll need some PAC money because she got nothing compared to Loebsack.

[ Parent ]
Anyone know
which state won PPP's which state to poll next?

20, male, independent, WI-07.

Vermont
Since I saw a Ras poll yesturday with Schumin up 3 over Dubie in VT-Gov and Wisconsin with WI-Sen and Gov.

[ Parent ]
Wait?
They are polling VT too now?  

[ Parent ]
Yeah you didn't see that yesturday
Rasmussen polled VT Gov yesturday and gave a 3 point lead to Schumlin.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


[ Parent ]
No
I mean PPP. I thought you were saying they decided to poll VT also.  

[ Parent ]
I didn't saying PPP was polling this race
I said they should because of the Rasmussen poll. Like to see what they come up with. Cold happen I mean they recently polled Maine, they can do Vermont.

[ Parent ]
Why would you think
that PPP would poll a race just because Rasmussen polled it?

PPP is polling California, Michigan (I think), Wisconsin (I think)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
I'm just saying
Down the road it be nice to see them polling since this is a Governor's seat and it's open.  

[ Parent ]
It would be. I agree.
But it's such a boring state otherwise. Welch & Leahy will romp, and PPP will probably be focusing on "competitive states"

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
But it's such a boring state otherwise.
Maine's boring but polled their Gov and Congressional races. The Gov race is very competitive that's why I like to see them poll it.


[ Parent ]
I disagree
Maine isn't really that boring, both of the congressional races have proven somewhat interesting, and of course the gubernatorial race, to say nothing of looking ahead to Olympia Snowe's fate in 2012. Vermont's only interesting race is governor and even then that looked like a pretty safe R hold before the primary.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Wisconsin was up by 10 votes the last time I was able to check.


[ Parent ]
Me too
Which means it probably lost. When I go to sleep, whatever is winning (esp. by a few votes) always ends up losing.  

[ Parent ]
I had to wake up 8 months later
for Franken.

[ Parent ]
Ouch!
That Boxer ad hits REALLY hard.  If that gets significant air play, I see Fiorina as dead meat.  How the hell did she think she would win in this state with that record.

The CA-GOP really failed at candidate recruitment there, they should have tried to clear the field for Tom Campbell.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


I still think Fiorina is better than Campbell could've ever been
Had Campbell won the nomination, you'd see at least one right-wing third-partier come along to split the GOP vote. Beyond the rank-and-file, there'd be great discontent among conservatives over a Campbell candidacy. Plus, perhaps more importantly, Campbell was dirt-broke at the end of his primary run. Fiorina's no Meg Whitman, but she can at least pump a few millions now and then.

Also, I happen to think Fiorina's run a relatively-competent campaign. We'll see how her ads look (she's been a mixed bag on that front), but I think she's got at least a 40% chance of prevailing.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
See I disagree on that
Because in my opinion Fiorina's gaffes and her pretty much almost running HP into the ground when she was at the helm has made her a bad candidate and a plus for Boxer not to mention her views aren't exactly moderate. While Campbell during the campaign came off as decdent, sane moderate Republican who could of gave Boxer a run for his money. One problem though: he had no money by the time primary came around.

Meg Whitman on the other hand, she has ran a good campaign and could darn well beat Brown.


[ Parent ]
Bill Clinton has run a good campaign
Whitman hasn't.  The Chamber of Commerce also is running good ads against Brown.  If Whitman would just hide her unlikeable mug, she could have a chance if she just let Clinton and the Chamber do the talking.

[ Parent ]
I'm
glad Boxer took off the gloves and started attacking Fiorina. Can't wait for the Boxer ad that has a former HP employee who lost their job under Fiorina to tell California about how bad Fiorina's tenure at HP was.

I think it'll get played significantly. I did see Boxer's first ad while watching Good Morning America a few days ago.


19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Also, Fiorina still has an apologist stance towards out-sourcing.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No they shouldn't
First of all, she was in the race long before Campbell. Fiorina is not a bad candidate. She has stayed on message very well, she can raise money, and self fund. She can also go toe-to-toe with Boxer in debates, even coming out in front in the last debate. Not a recruitment fail. Her response to this ad has been very good, rolling out a website with statements of support from HP execs and employees and a very good web ad that really should go on TV.  

[ Parent ]
She is a bad candidate
That fine and all she can self fund and all, in CA you'll need all the money you can get just to run for dog catcher there but it dosen't translate into votes as we have seen in polling and her gaffes during the campaign and her failure at HP is what bringing her down. Not to mention Boxer is a strong campaigner.

[ Parent ]
But...that's the thing
Fiorina really HASN'T made any huge gaffes thus far, and she IS polling within the margin-of-error of Boxer. I don't doubt that Boxer is a terrific campaigner, and I imagine she out-performs the final polls by a few points, but I'd be hard-pressed to not praise the Fiorina campaign a bit.

(As I've said before, I'd vote for Boxer and Whitman, although I don't dislike Fiorina. Not a fan of Brown's at all.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
I guess well have to agree to disagree on that
BTW Don't blame you for not wanting to vote for Brown. He's a he makes common rethreads look obscure with him pretty much running for every office in CA known to msn pretty much.

[ Parent ]
I cannot beleive that anyone would Ticket split for Boxer and Whitman
Boxer is far more liberal that Brown, and Whitman has just made headlines that she has spent more money on this campaign than Mike Bloomberg.

I see that as a glaring negative, especially with the unemployment rate that it is here.

Any mention of whether Schwarzenegger is going to endorse anyone?  While that may be a kiss of death, some people still like him here somehow.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
Well
It could be because Boxer is a good liberal and makes people want to vote for her while Jerry Brown offers nothing new but the past, I vote for him because I rarely split the ticket but others do.

[ Parent ]
On the Boxer/Whitman ticket split...
I agree. I don't want to vote for Jerry Brown one bit, but I will. If Tom Campbell had stayed in the race, and somehow beaten Meg Whitman ... I'd suspect a lot more people would be voting or Campbell. Brown in the past. It speaks volumes to the Democratic Party that they are running Jerry Brown for governor.

On the other hand, I am enthusiastically voting for Boxer.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
I right with you here
I'm voting for Brown in spite of himself. I was leaning toward Whitman during the primary, but when I saw her acceptance speech the day after she won, I woke up and remembered I'm a Democrat and a moderate no less. Her sense of entitlement to the office of governor and her record spending make her detestable.

Actually, I wasn't initially excited about Boxer either (I skipped the Senate primary on my ballot), but it looks like she's hitting her stride now.


[ Parent ]
Agreed.
Though I would say that while Brown doesn't motivate me at all, Whitman (Fiorina too) scares the ever-living hell out of me. If Campbell was running for governor I would at least consider voting for him (probably wouldn't due to redistricting though).

[ Parent ]
I may do that myself
For me, the Senate race is a no-brainer because the national Republican leaders are making no sense at all and I would rather give Harry Reid another vote than Mitch McConnell. Fiorina brings nothing to the table in terms of issue expertise the way a handful of Senate Republicans (Lugar, Graham, Corker) do.

At the state level, it's different. Jerry Brown is acting like Al Davis (thinking that what worked for him in the 70s will still work today) and I'm not convinced that at age 73 he has the energy to handle the daily grind of being governor. Brown has been vague about what he would do. Whitman has at least proposed more specifics, some of which make sense and some of which don't. She would be more of a check on the excesses of the Democrats in the legislature, who on balance are well to the left of their national counterparts. I don't know which one would be better on the budget, which in practice requires at least some bipartisan agreement. Brown at least has some experience there. If Whitman is inclined to work with the Dems, she may be more able to persuade Republicans to vote for the budget than Brown would. On the other hand, she might turn out to be just as stubborn as the other Republicans are. I'm still undecided there.  

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
Al Davis...
Real good example man, real good. But your rightv CA is in crisis mode and I don't think Brown has the energy to tackle it. While Whitman has some ideas I don't envy her if she wins. But regarding her and the Dems. In order to get things passed she'll have to work with them. Arnold didn't in the beginning and he almost lost because of it (than and his props that died at the ballot box).

[ Parent ]
wow, that is pretty killer


[ Parent ]
Tuesday Night Thoughts
(don't blame me for not posting this yesterday; blame the lack of wi-fi on greyhound buses on the nyc/ohio corridor)

1) GOTV is... wow. I don't believe I have ever gotten less sleep in a 3-day span in my life. Seeing the results is a great reward, though.

2) Carolyn Maloney ought to have the pizzeria vote locked up, with the amount the campaign ordered.

3) Random (happy) woman at Schneiderman victory party, paraphrased: "Do you know how much money NARAL is going to be able to raise off Paladino winning?" (Has he said extremist-y things on the abortion issue?)

4) Our opponent (Saujani) underperformed generic Some Dude, I think. (Of course, we wouldn't be running contrast mailers against Some Dude.)

5) O'Donnell winning = awesome. Attractive and absolutely, utterly insane - what more could we ask for in a Republican Senate candidate in Delaware?

6) Sheldon Silver does not answer his door (I got his apartment on my canvass list twice).

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets


Come to think of it
His place in Albany is probably nicer. Those Lower East Side apartments are definitely not luxury.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
NH-Gov
PPP sees lynch up 51-39

Maybe he can drag Hodes over the Finish line?

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


Great point
I was wondering the same thing.  Any ideas in SSP land???

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Possability
Lynch is popular and Hodes has been polling closely with Ayotte. Could happen. Well have to see.

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
Lynch is going to have to work a little to keep Stephen from sneaking up on him, but Hodes-Ayotte and the House races are going to be much bigger profile, I think.

With this cycle going the way it has been, Hodes and the congressional candidates have to be the ones driving people out to vote. That's not to say Lynch's numbers aren't helpful; he's not a Pat Quinn or Rory Reid(?) at this point, so he's certainly not going to do any harm, which is good enough for me.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
For Lynch to help Hodes, Lynch would have to campaign WITH him and even do ads together, BUT...
...that would drag down Lynch a little even while pulling up Hodes.  Lynch could risk it if he were up 20, but a lead barely in the double digits with 6 weeks still to go in a year hostile to our party is not strong enough to take the risk.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
This is going to be the first competitve re-election for Lynch
He ran a great campaign to unseat Craig Benson in a close race in 2004 while Kerry won by a similar margin atop the ticket (Gregg won with a 2-1 margin against Granny D that year.) But his re-elections in '06 and '08 have been against only token opposition and probably helped Shea-Porter and Hodes win their seats.

Having Stephen on the ballot is a good thing for Republicans since he's actually campaigning and drawing up excitement in GOP circles. The downballot candidates stand a better chance when the gube nominee isn't losing 80-20. But forcing Lynch to go out and campaign will help the Dems too, since his GOTV operation will bring Dems to the polls.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
But forcing Lynch to go out and campaign will help the Dems too, since his GOTV operation will bring Dems to the polls.
That is very true. Because in the end when it really matters (espically in close races) GOTV matters along with how the campaigns are managed.

[ Parent ]
Tuesday IN-09 polling
I forgot to post about this on Tuesday in the midst of all the DE/NH excitement, but that evening a live interviewer phoned me about the Ninth District race.

Unfortunately, I don't remember the polling group for certain. I would've written it down, but I was working in the barn at the time (had the handset with me just in case), and didn't have pen and paper handy. I'm fairly sure the interviewer identified the company as Global Strategy Group, but I could easily be wrong. Given the questions, though, I'm pretty sure it was an internal poll either for the DCCC or Baron Hill's campaign.

Having never participated in a poll, despite reading about them on a daily basis, it was interesting to have this come up. Beyond the usual partisan ID, demographic, and information level questions, there was a significant amount of message testing for the Dems, specifically focusing on Young's waffling on Social Security privatization (it's everywhere, nowdays!), as well as his background, the whole 'rich lawyer from Carmel that doesn't understand rural folks' thing.

Something that stuck me as odd was a couple of fav/unfav questions about Rand Paul. Peculiar, considering he's not actually a candidate in Indiana, but then again a significant proportion of this district (including where I live) is in the Louisville media market, which might partially explain that.

Goes without saying I'd like to see the results from that poll, but I doubt they're going to be released, if it was an internal.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


That
is interesting. Maybe they are trying to see if tying Young and Paul would work. Seems weird, but that is the best I can think of. Did they do Senate numbers as well? I think it is probably the DCCC if they did Senate numbers as I do not see Hill bothering to poll that.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, forgot that
There was a Sen question, just whether I planned to vote for Ellsworth or Coats. They never brought it up after that.

As for Paul, that was the only thing I could think of, too. I hope that's not actually the case. That doesn't really sound all that effective to me. Really, neither has the "He's from CARMEL!!111" nonsense, either. Just hit Young on 'bad SSP' and let the votes roll in, or think of something else.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Yeah
I have never thought the Carmel thing was all that big of deal either. People don't care about carpet bagging and Carmel is an area everyone is familiar with anyway. I definitely hope he does not tie Young to Paul, that seems rather stupid. Maybe they just want to see how Paul has been covered, we are in the Louisville media market after all. I agree stick to SSP. Since we are on the subject have you noticed a lot of Young signs and bumper stickers? I have. I've seen maybe 5 signs and a couple of bumper stickers. I have only seen 1 Hill sign. Do you remember how I told you about those Hankins signs? They are still up, I don't know why. Commercial wise I have seen an equal number of Hill and Young commercials. Young's are not very impressive to me. I love the Hill SSP one, that is effective. I have often been pessimistic about Hill but I think he will pull it out, the SSP is going to help himtremendously.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I haven't really seen much support for Young OR Hill
Beyond that obnoxiously large sign off the interstate at Georgetown, there seem to be many less signs and stickers for federal candidates this cycle than there were in '06 or '08. I know it's a somewhat silly subject to talk about, but (around here at least) there's many more signs to be seen for county commissioner/sheriff/prosecutor/etc. then there are for the House and Senate races. I guess that reflects how dissatisfied with national politics people are nowdays.

I think Young's campaign really dropped the ball with that terrible ad they made about Hill's disastrous town hall. I'm honestly convinced that had that ad been made better it could've had a very significant impact, but they executed it so poorly that I think that particular bolt's been shot now. Meanwhile, I'm in full agreement with you, the Hill SSP (this acronym is great) ad is pretty darn good.

I'm feeling pretty positive about the race right now. Hill's campaigning energetically, he's got all the resources he needs, and Young's "ponzi scheme" gaffe isn't going away anytime soon. Given that I'm increasingly sour on both the Senate race and the Eighth, at least Hill should be able to give us something to be pleased about.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Don't
get me wrong for every 1 Young sign I have probably seen 10 Byrd for prosecutor signs. I don't know if people are just upset or if maybe they have not fully printed yet. I should go down to the Democratic headquarters and see if they have any. I seem to remember a lot of Sodrel signs last year. Although yard signs really mean little.  I agree that it is looking good though. I am hoping Hill keeps his head at the debates coming up, he is known for having a hot head sometimes and I always worry about it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Christine O'Donnel has a lesbian sister
well O'Donnel certainly doesnt take the Dick Cheney route
on things.  She probably has inner family drama on top of whatever else goes on inside her head.

[ Parent ]
...AND as long as Jennie is a virgin and doesn't masturbate, it's all good! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Republican Agenda Rollout Begins
http://www.politico.com/news/s...
It will continue to roll out over the next two weeks. Personally, I think it is a bad idea. They were doing just fine without an agenda, and now it gives Dems something to go through an attack us on.  

MI-09
The Michigan-based Rossman Group is out with a poll showing former State Rep. Rocky Raczkowski leading Dem Gary Peters in Michigan's 9th district.

Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) - 45%
Gary Peters (D) - 40.7%
Undecided - 10.3%

300 LV, MoE 5.6%

Kind of a small sample (300 is about the bare minimum for a credible poll), but I can definitely believe it. The 9th isn't as liberal as Peters is. Still, unless Rocky picks up his fundraising, I don't think he'll be able to win.


What do you know about these guys?
Are they working for the NRCC or Rocky, or are they independent? And are they the same group that polled the primaries and nailed them (I remember some local pollster correctly predicting the Benishek/Allen tie in MI-01)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
They're a pretty well-respected firm in Michigan
It was Practical Political Consulting (Mark Grebner's firm) that hit the MI-01 primary almost dead-on, not Rossman. Still, they're well respected, and despite one of the founders being Republican, they're nonpartisan and work (and hire) both Republicans and Democrats. They're not working on behalf of either candidate in this race

[ Parent ]
I don't trust parisan polling for the most part
Because of the obvious reasons so i'm inclined not to take too much with this poll but your right if Rocky don't raise some dough he won't beat Peters. I checked his numbers. There not too good.

[ Parent ]
Rossman group
is a PR firm affiliated with Audrey Perricone, a Republican, on the polling.

http://therossmangroup.com/trg...

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/di...


[ Parent ]
MI-9 should be in play, but
Remember this is Rocky.  This guy was the worst of the candidates the Republicans could have picked.  

The Democrats should be thankful that someone did not talk the sense into Bouchard to run for Congress instead of Governor.  He could have easily won the primary and beat Peters.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
Your right
Bouchard could of. Rocky can't. Oh well this happens to both parties when it comes to candidate recruitment. Some run and some don't making into a hit and miss. Like with John Adler's district in 2008.

[ Parent ]
Believe me, people tried
I talked to Bouchard personally twice and tried to convince him to switch. He was too convinced by his own internal numbers that he could still win. If he'd just dropped down to run for the House, this race would be Lean R.

[ Parent ]
Well you can't blame Junkie
I mean the man thought he could win because he thought his numbers were right. Hell I thought he coulds do it and never thought Rick Snyder would win. Oh well the saying goes heinsight is 20/20 you can't go back in time and change things because of how the present looked. Hey think of it this way since your a GOPer. '12: Peters vs. Bouchard it could very well happen if he wants it.

[ Parent ]
early voting numbers for Iowa
Democrats start with a three to one advantage over Republicans in absentee ballots requested. Early voting begins on September 23.

In 2008 strong early voting saved several Democratic-held Iowa House and Senate seats. In the 2009 special election for Iowa House district 90, Democrats had a 1000-vote advantage in absentee ballots and won the election by 107.


Darrell Issa PAC robocalling in Iowa
Maybe in other states too, I have no idea, but a Bleeding Heartland user got a call from ISSAPAC the other night.

I'm likeing that new Democrats.org website and logo
That old DNC logo just looked disgusting and old.  What do you guys think?



20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


It looks modern and trendy.
I like it alot.

[ Parent ]
It looks like a European traffic sign or something you see at the airport
Lets just say I'm not a fan. Stick to basics with this kind of thing. Being edgy like this just risks opening you up to the potential for ridicule over something extremely unimportant.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
This was their logo before
It was ugly Fugly

This sucks

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
I think it is fine
and something that wont get ridiculed and laughed at as a European traffic sign or a Target logo.

After all all that matters about the logo is that no one makes fun of it.

Just waiting for Leno or Steward to make jokes about this.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
I like this old one much better
It's got the colors of the flag.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I seriously doubt Politico and Newsmax
Would make a story over ridiculing a party's new logo. If they do no one would care like how Politico two years ago wrote a huge story on Obama having his convention acceptance speech at Invesco Field with "Pillars" in the back. Believe me, no one will care. It's just a logo.

[ Parent ]
I saw Gawker post some snarky comments that it looks like the target logo
Alluding to the fact that the democrats could be easy to attack...

Democrats Target

I mean, I kinda see it, but, I think they were trying to incorporate the Obama logo with the circle thing.

I like it, and I dabble in Graphics design.  I couldn't really think of a better way to do it honestly.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
reminds me of dunkin donuts
only blue instead of pink and orange

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
^This
I bet most New Englanders who see it will think the same way too. Can't hurt them though, because America Runs on Dunkin'!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I went to New England with some friends two years ago on Spring Break
Went to Hartford, CT for some hockey games but we went everywhere, Boston, Lowell, Wocester, Maine, Providence and the kicker the Ben and Jerry Factory in Waterbury, VT and I swear for every 5 miles there was a Dunkin Donuts. I never seen so many in my life I shit you not. I saw one next to a BP that resembled the outside of a Church. I can't say America runs on Dunkin, but New England certainly does and there no problem with that at all.

[ Parent ]
yes, they are indeed everywhere
they're great, but i tim horton's would be nice too.  Also, for anyone getting coffee, ask for a cup of ice, b/c it is about 20 degrees hotter than coffee should be.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
There's a Tim Horton's near where I live
In Wheeling, WV about 45 minutes from my house. And there's about 3 in Erie (where I frequently go during the winter as i'm a season ticket holder with their hockey team the Junior A Erie Otters of the Ontario Hockey League). It is indeed the best from their donuts to their fresh coffee. Around Christmas they make this Christmas themed donut. It taste like a cake donut with mints on top. It was the shit.

[ Parent ]
That one's in Rutland, MA
Unless there's another one that looks the same!

And Doug, I agree with you for this time of year, but in February, coffee can never be too hot.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Around here we run on Krispy Kreme.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
We used to have one around here
In Greensburg, it went out of business because the Wal-Mart's and Sheetz's (a very well known chain of convience stores around here) sold them in there stores and it made it easier for people to buy the donuts there than to go to the actually Krispy Kreme. It is now a Chik-fil-a.

KK is alright but it dosen't beat Tim Horton's by a longshot.  


[ Parent ]
timmy ho's
is the best ever.  thank you madam canada.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
OMG
I concur. I have some family in Mass and NH and every time I am up there I am stunned at the high amounts of Dunkin Donuts. They are everywhere. Strangely enough I could find a star bucks around anywhere though. Hoosierdem can't run without his star bucks.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
lol, you clearly were not in Providence...
there's one in Wayland Square, one on Thayer St next to Brown's main quad, and one in One Financial Plaza. In other words if you walked down Angell St. in Providence for about a half hour, you would come across three different Starbucks. and that's just off the top of my head. you were looking in the wrong area ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Dunkin Donuts
is based in Canton, MA (not far from the Route 128 commuter rail station). RI has the highest number of Dunkin Donuts per capita. I'm from Providence and I can think of at least six Dunkin Donuts locations in Providence alone (let alone other towns), and there might be some I'm missing. I hope the 2008 political term "Dunkin Donuts voter" gets revived. :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
lol
reminds me of like a year or two ago when the Republicans adopted a line that turned out to be the same as the marketing slogan for some antidepressant.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Have
to agree, I am not overly impressed with it. Then again I doubt anyone really cares so it's a moot point.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Interesting choice
I like the colors, but the logo does look too much like a European traffic sign.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I agree
That is pretty laughable.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Say WHAT?


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
OH-Gov: Strickland internals have him down 3
kinda shows it's pretty bad
the whole "never show an internal that has you down" rule.  Granted, i see his reasoning as all of the other polls have him down by large double digits, but still, it's not good.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Yowza
Well, absolute silence would be worse. Maybe. I always interpret silence or the vague "our polling shows us in good shape" as a sign of doom, but an incumbent showing himself at 45 and down is a sign of trouble. He had better hit Kasich hard, and quickly, perhaps on Goldman Sachs or free trade.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
He has
And the DGA. They have been hitting him hard and constantly since May.  

[ Parent ]
Bloodbath
Right behind Pennsylvania, Ohio has joined the Democratic bloodbath club.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Governor's race wise atleast.


[ Parent ]
senate too
and at least 2 and probably 3 house seats  

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Oh yes espically OH to be the first
PA, depends. As for House Seats in Ohio it's Driehaus getting axed and PA it's Kanjorski and Sestak's open seat for sure.

[ Parent ]
I expect NY to lose a few house seats too
not really the fault of anyone, it's just that they became a jenga state, a state where a party builds themselves up so much that eventually the party will collapse a bit.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I don't see a few
The only one I see them losing is NY-29 and to be honest I think they wanted that so when redistricting comes around they can chop it up to shore up Owens and Murphy and that's why they put up a some dude candidate. Arcuri leans (although that's because of how inept he is) but still winning and I don't see John Hall losing.

[ Parent ]
That could be a dummymander though
NY-29 is R+5 and does not really have an obvious center of Democratic strength. It border NY-26, an R+6 district that would have to shed conservative territory elsewhere if it were to pick up the South Tier. Otherwise, the district would have to go in with NY-24, which is tenuous as it is, or NY-22, which would be a really stretchy, gerrymandered nightmare.

Assuming Reed and Hanna both win, Democratic redistricters will combine NY-24, NY-26, and NY-29 into two very Republican districts and shore up all their upstate incumbents. If Hall goes down this year, they could either be aggressive and draw Hayworth out or try to shore up Scott Murphy with by swapping some of the more conservative areas of NY-20 for some of the more liberal areas of NY-19.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
I don't see Hayworth or Hanna winning
Well maybe Hanna because Arcuri is sounding more and more like a spooked moron every day but who knows with that race  but that's a good example on how they could do it. I just used NY-29 as a example on how they can redistrict since they don't have to protect another Dem because if I wanted to create a map it would be a map to help shore up Murphy and Owens up. That would be important for me. I'm not a expert on gerrymandering like how most of the regulars are. I wish I was because i've seen maps drawn out here from states of members of both Dem and GOP and i'm really impressed with them.

[ Parent ]
BREAKING: in 2007, scientists created mice with human brains!
Betcha didn't know that.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Wow, just Wow
Thats the TPX for you ladies and gents. Crazy, conspiricy theorists, racists and damn proud of it. I still can't believe they took down who everyone thought was unbeatable. Sad since I like Castle alot and it a shame that within a period of two weeks his career in DC would end like that. Oh well it salvaged a seat for us and that's what matters.

[ Parent ]
MN-06 -SUSA poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Bachmann 49
Clark 40
Others/Undecided 11


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


Thats not a shock
They polled this race before and had the nutcase up by 9 as well.

[ Parent ]
Only shock...
... is that they found it to be that close. IMHO Bachmann will win by double digits.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Bachmann will win by double digits
Sadly. I'm not paying attention to that race though, my eyes in MN is on MN-Gov with Dayton and Emmer. That's the race to watch.

[ Parent ]
Internals
As usual SurveyUSA has some unusual internals

Men/Women 52/48

Bachmann up 27 with voters under 50

Clark up 7 with Voters over 50



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
Given it's SUSA
That's not unusual.

[ Parent ]
The topline
looks very accurate.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
It's a stagnant 55R-45D district

and this might be the year Bachmann gets to the 10 point spread.  But I think it'll be the usual: Bachmann just under 50%, the Democratic challenger in the mid/low forties, and the None Of The Above vote goes to the minor candidates.


[ Parent ]
Christine O'Donnell: "America is one of the most free places in the country."
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...
Chris Coons conducted himself very well at the debate.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


He will win comfortably
But if both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA and Ipsos and CNN have it far closer then Quinnipiac are just wrong here.

[ Parent ]
MA-Gov: Patrick up 3, Cahill imploding
Check out the primary bounce in WI
Need more polls from other firms. Ridiculous it has been ignored.

[ Parent ]
And Patrick STILL Leads
I'm rapidly losing faith in Baker, if he can't lead even with Cahill essentially gone, how will he ever lead? Patrick is also getting close to 50.

Primary bounce or not, WI is beginning to look like it's more likely to flip than NV, CA, or even IL. Shame, because out of the four Democrats there, Feingold is the one I like the best.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Remember
That local pollster said if Cahill were not in the race at all, Baker would win in a walk.  

[ Parent ]
Feingold in big trouble
Agree with that. But I still think we need other sources of polling before we can say exactly where it stands.

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Murkowski to hold "campaign kick-off" tonight

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