SurveyUSA for KFSN-TV (9/10-12, likely voters, no trend lines):
Jim Costa (D-inc): 48
Andy Vidak (R): 46
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Jim Costa's coming off a whopping 74-26 win over unheralded GOP challenger Jim Lopez in 2008, but SurveyUSA thinks that cherry farmer Andy Vidak is within striking distance of an upset here this fall. The 20th District is at least somewhat competitive, having gone for John Kerry by only three points over Bush in 2004 (but also supporting Obama by 60-39 in '08 and Al Gore by 55-44 a decade ago). One big red flag is SUSA's estimation of the Hispanic turnout: they're pegging it at just 30%. (Note that this CD was 63% Hispanic as of 2000.) In what appears to be an effort to preemptively address criticism with their sample's demographics, SUSA broke with their normal practice and banged out the following:
* If Hispanics make up 30% of voters on Election Day, Costa and Vidak finish effectively even, Costa 48%, Vidak 46%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. At this hour, Republicans are, subject to change as the campaign unfolds, within reach of a take-way. If Hispanic turnout is 30% or less on election day, other turnout issues, such as the number of males vs females, could potentially come into play and help decide the contest.
* If Hispanics make up 35% of voters on Election Day, Costa is better positioned to hold the seat for the Democrats: he would lead today by approximately 7 points, 50% to 43% in a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.
* If Hispanics make up 40% of voters on Election Day, Costa today would lead by approximately 11 points, 52% to 41%, according to a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.
Meanwhile, in the open seat race to replace George "Who?" Radanovich, GOP state Sen. Jeff Denham leads physician/attorney Loraine Goodwin by 63-30.
