Google Ads


Site Stats

DE-Sen: Defeat From the Jaws of Victory; SSP Moves to Lean D

by: Crisitunity

Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 12:45 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, 8/7-8 in parentheses):

Chris Coons (D): 50 (44)
Christine O'Donnell (R): 34 (37)
Undecided: 16 (19)

Chris Coons (D): 35 (35)
Mike Castle (R): 45 (48)
Undecided: 20 (17)
(MoE: ±3.2%)

The loud rumbling sound you're hearing is the implosion of Republican chances in the Delaware Senate race, previously one of their gimmees that were the foundation for big overall Senate gains. As you can see, Democratic New Castle Co. Executive Chris Coons was well on track to lose to Mike Castle (although by a narrower margin than others polls have seen)... but the state's remaining Republican electorate saw fit to nominate Christine O'Donnell last night, giving Coons a pretty clear shot at the win.

How bad a fit for the Delaware general electorate is O'Donnell? Let's look at some of the underlying details: Castle's favorables are 44/40, while O'Donnell's are 29/50. 45% thought Mike Castle was "just right," while 31% said "too liberal" and 15% "too conservative." On other hand, Christine O'Donnell is 40% "too conservative," with only 35% "just right" and 9% "too liberal." By a 59-26 margin Castle was seen "fit to hold public office;" by a 49-31 margin O'Donnell is not. 18% say a Sarah Palin endorsement would make it more likely for them to vote for a candidate, while 52% say less likely. 15% say they're members of the Tea Party, 71% are not. All in all, a pretty serious indication that the Delaware Republican Party, shrunken by the defection of many moderates to the Dems as in many other northeastern states, has been distilled to irrational purism in its purest essence.

UPDATE: Swing State Project is moving this race to Lean Democratic (from Lean Republican). While this poll might be more suggestive of "Likely D," we don't want to underestimate the power of a particularly revved-up Republican base in an open-seat race, even in a blue state like Delaware.
Crisitunity :: DE-Sen: Defeat From the Jaws of Victory; SSP Moves to Lean D
Tags: , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

DE-Sen: Defeat From the Jaws of Victory; SSP Moves to Lean D | 103 comments
I was worried yesterday that GOP might force her out...
Like they tried with Maes, but given the level of pushback today, Rush is even attacking Rove for his remarks last night on Hannity, I think she's sticking around.  

Cornyn did a 180 and is embracing O'Donnell, which only helps us further......
The question is whether national Democrats realize that painting the GOP as a whole as extremists is our best path to holding down our losses.  I sure hope so.  Republicans are shoving this talking point into our guts and demanding we use it against them.  I hope our elected leaders are smart enough to do it.

We were in good shape to use O'Donnell against the GOP already, but the fact that the establishment now is pro forma embracing her helps that cause even further.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Absolutely...
I want a minute long commercial with quotes from various GOP candidates, along with identifying the candidate giving the quote and the seat they are running for with the final fade to black being "Is this who you want to put back in charge?"
[ Parent ]
I've been pushing for that ad for a long time.
When I tell my non-political friends about some of the GOP crazies running for office, they think I am exaggerating.
[ Parent ]
a former prof told me
How she was in the airport randomly chatting to the guy sitting next here and he just wouldnt believe the chicken-bartering thing Lowden said.

These are the exact ads we need to be running.  And like whoever said above, just end it with, "Is this the party you want to put in charge of the country?"

[ Parent ]
This is exactly what happened in Harry Reid's campaign focus groups.....
Reid's campaign ran focus groups where the audience refused to believe that Angle said things that were claimed......until they saw the video and her the audio of her just talking and actually saying them.

You've got to get verbatim quotes from reputable sources on the air in attack ads; video and audio is best, but if you don't have it, source it best you can and run it exactly as spoken.  Rinse, wash, repeat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well, I got this email from John Kerry
The news from Delaware is crystal clear: it's Sarah Palin's party now.
Her chosen radical rightwing candidate Christine O'Donnell, a candidate so extreme her state's GOP leader called her "delusional," defeated the well-respected Congressman Mike Castle. Mike Allen, in his influential Playbook this morning, sums it up, "Sarah Palin, who endorsed O'Donnell, is STRONGER."

But it's up to you to make it clear it won't be Sarah Palin's United States Senate.

We have to fight back. Click here to contribute right now to make sure we defeat the Tea Party extremists.

In Delaware, Chris Coons is running against O'Donnell, and he's a fantastic candidate. He knows we need policies that will put Americans back to work, to strengthen health care reform, not repeal it.

And the Tea Party assault doesn't stop in Delaware. One of our most valuable progressive Senators, a man who has fought as hard as anyone for our civil liberties, Russ Feingold, is under heavy attack by a very wealthy, very extreme candidate who has pledged to spend millions attacking Russ. Russ stood up for us against the abuses of the Bush Administration. He's one of my best colleagues in the Senate, and he needs our help.

Click here to contribute to Chris Coons and Russ Feingold and make sure we have people in the Senate who are working for us, not for the shadowy Karl Rove-backed interests and radicals that are pushing the Tea Party agenda.

We can't let this opportunity slip away from us. We inherited a brutal economy from the Bush Administration, and now those same forces that brought us to that point are trying to get back in power. But they are going too far, and we can stop them.

So please, do what you can to help.

Thanks,
John Kerry

It's only for Delaware and Wisconsin, but I wonder if this is a sign of things to come.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
My great frustration today is the campaign analysts, namely Josh Krashaaur......
Krashaauer tweets this afternoon that DE-Sen(R), back-to-back:

If nothing else, the #DESEN results should end the WH/DNC-fueled myth that the GOP and Tea Party are one and the same.

The danger for Dems is that they've been misreading the Tea Party movement all along, and aren't prepared for a backlash in November as well.

Oh, sigh.  Delaware proves the GOP and tea party ARE one and the same.  The GOP is whoever they put on the ballot for November.  Every time a teabagger wins, that's a merger of the two.  That that's happened so much, and the polling that shows the teabaggers are all right-wing Fox News lovers, underscores that these people are just part of the Republican base.

And Democrats aren't misreading anything, Josh is.  The teabaggers are just a loud part of the GOP base, nothing more.  They've been voting for Republicans for years, it's just now they're a little louder since their party has its back to the wall and they're pissed off at Democrats because they hate us and they're pissed off at their own establishment for not being far right enough when in power and then losing elections to boot.  Swing voters have turned against us, too, but they're coming from an entirely different place psychologically than teabaggers.  For them, it's low national morale; as Bill Clinton put it, they don't feel like they're winning.  Josh doesn't get that, he thinks swing voters equal teabaggers.

It's really become part of political journalists' DNA that no matter what happens, it's bad for Democrats and good for Republicans.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

That dude is a Republican hack, so
not surprising he'd be pushing pernicious narratives.
[ Parent ]
That's the last straw
Im deleting Politico from my bookmarks.  I only ever go there when Im super bored but god they are just awful.
[ Parent ]
Kraushaar
actually works for the Hotline now.

For anyone who's read his work at Politico, you can definitely tell where he's coming from (ideologically) pretty easily.

[ Parent ]
And just to comment on Kraushaar and add to your point
What makes his point even more stupid is that when you look at the people who make up the liberal fringe, you see that they went and created the Green Party.  And I have a lot of experience with fringe liberals having been a Justice and Peace Studies major; they could care less about their voting hurting the chances of liberals who can actually get elected.  They want to make their point and that's that.  (This reminds me that I need to look-up a classmate who just got arrested for setting some ferrets on a farm free.)

Tea-baggers, however, have outwardly said many many many times, we will not form a third party because that will just make it so the GOP loses and the Democrats win.  There was NY-23, but that was under very special circumstances and I cant think of a single race where the GOP is determined to throw themselves under the bus again like that come November.  They did all that in the primaries instead this time.  :)

[ Parent ]
DE
I'm a little worried that Coons favorability is under water.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Of course you are

[ Parent ]
ROTFLMAO!!! Thanks for that! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
DE
Don't get me wrong, I think we will win this one, but that's just not a good sign.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
It doesn't matter
When her numbers are so bad. The flip is that Coons is one of very few Democrats PPP have found leading among indies.
[ Parent ]
Coons' unfavorables are lower than O'Donnell's 2008 vote share......
O'Donnell lost to Joe Biden 65-35 in 2008 DE-Sen.  Coons should be at 35% unfavorability based on that alone if the survey question simply identifies him as a "Democrat."  But he's at 33%.  Regarding his favorability, voters are much more stingy with that always, they won't say "favorable" for someone whose name they don't recognize, unless they reflexively say so based on the guy being a Democrat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It means he's not known...
31-33 just means the 33% don't like him because he is a Democrat, 31% like him because he is a Democrat and the remaining 36 percent don't know enough about him.  

He's a very solid candidate and a likable guy.  

[ Parent ]
He's not THAT unknown
He is County Executive (in effect, Mayor) of a county that makes up 60% of the state.
[ Parent ]
Not that it matters
But a Castle spokesperson says there won't be a Coons endorsement.

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

Last sentence
"When asked whether, given his opinion of O'Donnell, Castle is concerned she'll become a U.S. Senator Dickens said simply, "she won't."

He may not be endorsing Coons publicly, but he's working with him privately. I think Castle is so bitter with what O'Donnell did to him that he's going to do whatever he can to make sure she doesn't win.

And I hope he does. O'Donnell is a wretch, who slandered one of the most well respected political figures in Delaware. If I was Castle, I would ask my entire campaign staff to jump ship to Coons.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
I need to vent
I admit it, me and my buddy took a victory shot last night when O'Donnell won because, obviously, it'll lead to Senator Coons. But as I think about it, I'm not sure how great of a thing this is that she won.

O'Donnell's victory emboldens the loud, racist, and ignorant faction of the Republican Party. It's sad. Why? Because it undoubtedly drags the party further(!) to the right. When they're so far right, a couple of them will slip by and win their races--think Joe Miller and Marco Rubio. A lot of these guys will be on Sunday talk spewing out hateful and deceitful talking points; remember, if a senator says it, it's GOT to be true! I think a lot of people will start to believe what they say, no matter how ignorant and untruthful it is.

I love the fact that we'll get a Senator Coons. Good for him. He stuck his neck out and took a chance in an uphill battle. He deserves the seat. Yet, a Castle-Coons debate would have been a productive one for our country: a sane, respectful conservative vs. a centrist Democrat would have contributed infinitely more than a Coons vs. TAKE OUT COUNTRY BACK discourse. Further, a Tea Party-infested party will make the Democrats more conservative, as they will try to scoop up disenfranchised Republicans.

In the long term, who knows what it'll happen. I'm happy about last night, don't get my wrong. But I think we have to be careful in rooting for all tea party candidates; some of them will win!

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

I really disagree, I think the risk to the nation is very minimal......
Yes some of these characters will slip by.  Joe Miller and Rand Paul certainly are favored to win, and Ken Buck is a slight favorite.  Any or all of them actually could lose, but in this environment at least a couple likely slip into the Senate.

But they are a few loudmouths who ultimately hurt their party, they don't last, and swing voters come back our way in the next election and again 4 years after that to boot these very clowns who rode a wave into office.

This happened in 1980.  A bunch of unprepared Republicans got elected to Senate, and in fact I think the GOP got a whopping 12(!) takeaways that year to take the Senate for the first time since 1954, so it was 26 years.  That was, of course, on the Reagan landslide.  But then 6 years later a bunch of those bozos got booted, and Democrats regained Senate control with 8 takeaways.  Four of the 8 came from knocking off freshmen, one an appointed guy and 3 others who had first won in 1980.

What's scary now is that some of the Republican nominees are far crazier than anyone the Republicans got elected in 1980 or the 1994 wave.  But still they're just a few in the Senate, they'll hurt their party more than our country, and they won't be able to survive in a non-wave cycle in 2016.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well I think its more the fact
that we will be stuck with some of these folks for the next 6 years that I find upsetting  

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
[ Parent ]
I understand, these people upset me, too, but their kind are always in the Senate......
We already have people like them in the Senate.  Jim DeMint, Jim Inhofe, and others are cut from the same cloth.  In my younger adulthood it was Jesse Helms and Strom Thurmond and others.  At least from states like Colorado and Kentucky it's easier to knock out these people the next time around than from states like South Carolina and Oklahoma.

Don't get me wrong, I gave Jack Conway $250 and Harry Reid $250 specifically because I despise the Republican nominees in those races just as much as you do.  I'd do the same for Scott McAdams and Michael Bennet if money wasn't tighter in my household this month than it was in the summer.  But remember we'll survive these cretins even if some of them win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I have mixed feelings too.
Ever since it seemed like O'Donnell might win -- sure, holding the Senate just got a lot easier, but my god, whatever sanity was left in the Republican party is gone.

Every other teaper victory had some caveat to it.

Crist? Well, Rubio isn't really that far-right, and he had the backing of Jeb Bush. Plus the whole Obama-praisy thing.

Greyson? Rand Paul's famous name won him a lot of money from confused libertarians.

Bennett? Screwed by the convention process.

McInnis? Scandal.

Lowden? Terminal stupid.

Murkowski? Caught napping.

None of this applied to Mike Castle. He had the money, he hadn't made any major gaffes or been cuaght in any scandals, he had the total support of the local party, including the conservatives. (Especially the conservatives -- they know O'Donnell all too well.) As soon as there was the slightest hint of a race, he came out swinging -- no Coakley or Murkowski he.

And none of it mattered. If you're a Republican, you exist at the Tea Party's and the Mama Grizzly's sufferance, or at least that's how it looks. Period.

I forsee serious problems ahead.

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
This has got to be one of the classic SSP lines:
Lowden: Terminal Stupid

Rolling around in my chair at that one. Hopefully it's contagious among people of conservative dispositions.  

[ Parent ]
Hopefully this race will do two things
1. End the myth that far right-wing Republicans cannot win Senate primaries in the northeast. It is very clear that conservative Republicans have taken over the party almost everywhere, and their preferences will be even stronger in closed primary states.

2. Put a halt on all the attacks against PPP. Once again, PPP has come out well, although of course they are prone to showing an outlier just like every other pollster once in a while.

Any rumblings of a Castle write-in run?

No, Castle was asked and he explicitly said NO. He's retiring. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
No
He said last night that wasn't happening.
[ Parent ]
Beau Biden seen roaming the streets of Dover with his head shaking back and forth...
Though I suppose he'll be in line for the Carper seat someday...
IIRC I read that Biden wants the Governors gig...
He wants to be his own man and not win "Daddy's seat".  Also it would have been difficult for him in the Senate as any time he broke with the White House it would have been blown up into a huge issue.  I think Markell could go avter the Carper seat, with Biden looking to the Gov mansion.  
[ Parent ]
Now that's an interesting point!

[ Parent ]
or he could run for Gov when Markell is term-limited out
I wasn't holding my breath on him running for Senate.  He had just gotten back from Iraq, after all.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Safe Dem
C'mon.  Half the Republican voters are as discouraged right now as they can possibly be.  She has no path to victory short of a plague killing everyone with an IQ over 90.
Agree

[ Parent ]
hahahahaha
"She has no path to victory short of a plague killing everyone with an IQ over 90."

[ Parent ]
This Primary Reminds me of a similar case in New Jersey
Clifford Case a liberal four-term senator
.
Case sought a fifth Senate term in 1978, but lost the Republican primary to Jeffrey Bell, an anti-tax conservative. Bell went on to lose the general election to Bill Bradley. No Republican has been elected to represent New Jersey in the Senate since Case's last victory in 1972.


Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
DE-AL: Glen Urquhart has no chance of winning. He's a nut as well.
Watch this:


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I like how the tracker is participating and Glen doesn't suspect a thing.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm surprised he has to remind us that Hitler was evil.
Is he overcompensating for his late-night thoughts about Hitler not actually being that evil, or something?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
O'Donnell cira '97: AIDS Research and Care Gets Too Much Money


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Are you fucking kidding me?!
Yeah, This is Solid dem if this is put out publicly.

This is pathetic.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Nah, not quite.
I can totally see stupid people falling for this.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Lean Dem?
Come on, guys. I've been Mr. Optimism for the GOP this cycle, and even I'm willing to say that Coons' term in the Senate starts on Jan. 3rd, 2011. This one's essentially over.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Actually, no.
Since this is a special election, for the last four years of Biden's term, Coons' term in the Senate starts on November 3rd, 2010.
[ Parent ]
Cornyn claims NRSC stands by O'Donnell and gives her $42K
No word on whether they will do IE for her campaign.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
They won't do IE. The $42K was pro forma, they won't give another dime. IE would mean...
...the race is tightening enough to justify it.

That won't happen.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I know, I was just paraphrasing the article.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Wow - 42K. That might even allow her to win one county this time

[ Parent ]
Considering that Delaware only has three counties ...

[ Parent ]
And in the general, only one of them counts. (the one she won't win)

[ Parent ]
She lost all three counties to Biden in 2008
Even bat-shit crazy Sussex County.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
More O'Donnell: Obama is "sooo liberal" and "anti-American"


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
She sounds like High School girl
"OMG, He is SOOOOO Dreamy"

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I couldn't help but think that too.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
No wonder she won.
Fox News propped her up.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
More OMGWTF with O'Donnell
In 1998, she was on "Politically Incorrect with Bill Maher", where she stands by telling the truth no matter what because it "disrespects reality".
http://thinkprogress.org/2010/...


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I like how she just keeps talking
Even after Bill Maher said he was going to commercial.

The GOP elected a real winner yesterday.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
So apparently
Fox news thinks the Key to an O'Donnell victory in November is for her to run on a platform of "Throw the Bums out"

But don't you folks realize this is an open seat? there is no one to throw out

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

Can we all agree that Chris Coons is the luckiest politico of the cycle?
If we have a daily digest today, I'll reveal who I think, in light of yesterday's picks, is the second luckiest of the cycle.  
no--Hickenlooper's the luckiest
but Coons is a close second. I am so happy for him--he had the guts to set out on what looked like a really steep climb.  
[ Parent ]
Jim DeMint is the luckiest


26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Those are two good nominations - but here's why I disagree
Hickenlooper - was barely behind (or tied with) McInnis before he exploded. Everybody thought he had a shot. Virtually no one (besides some of us progressives on this site and others) thought Coons did. Colorado governor was rated at either tossup or slight lean Republican when Hickenlooper got it. You all have to admit, DE-Senate was not considered a tossup (see Nate Silver today for more info on that).

DeMint - nope. There's very little chance he would have lost this election, IMHO, even with a credible opponent. South Carolina is way too conservative. Totally disagree on this one. He's not even the luckiest Republican.  

I still think it's Coons.  

[ Parent ]
Still
Hickenlooper got the nomination because Ritter thought/knew he couldn't win against Inglis and dropped out, only to find out that the plagiarism scandal would've made him look very good in comparison.

Luckiest candidates:  Reid, Coons, Hickenlooper, Gillibrand, McAdams (even though he's still not favorite to win)

[ Parent ]
And one Republican:
Mark Kirk. Four reasons:

1). If the Illinois primary had been even a couple of months later, he likley would have lost (his record is just as liberal as Castle)

2). He's up against a flawed opponent

3). Brady, the Republican governor candidate, will pull voters from downstate that Kirk needs and he would have had a tough time getting if Dillard had won the primary

4).  He running in a bad year for Dems, in a state where the Dem party is perceived very negatively right now.

He may still lose - I think he's a slight favorite, but others disagree. But given all the flaws he's exhibited as a candidate, can anyone argue he's not the luckiest Republican?  

[ Parent ]
That he is
I think outside of Indiana, Arkansas and North Dakota, Illinois probably ranks higher than Pennsylvania as a pickup for the GOP even though the polls show Kirk behind by a point.
[ Parent ]
Reactions to the DE Senate race from GOP bigwigs:
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...
Michael Steele:
Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele told CNN Wednesday that he has instructed his staff to devote resources and money to help Christine O'Donnell in Delaware.

Specifically, Steele said that he has emphasized to the RNC's finance staff the need to help set up fundraisers to help stock O'Donnell's campaign war chest. O'Donnell, with the help of Tea Party activists, defeated establishment favorite Mike Castle Tuesday in the Republican Senate primary.

Steele has reached out to O'Donnell, and as of early Wednesday afternoon had not yet connected with her.


Mike Pence:
"I categorically reject that Christine O'Donnell cannot win in Delaware. This is a whole new world, we elected a Republican member of the Senate from Massachusetts."
(O'Donnell is NOT Scott Brown, you dolt.)
Rove:
"I'm for the Republican, but I got to tell you, we were looking at eight to nine seats in the Senate. We are now looking at seven to eight in my opinion. This is not a race we're going to be able to win."

Mitt(ens) Romney:
"Now is the time for Republicans to rally behind their nominee, Christine O'Donnell," Romney said. "She ran an impressive campaign. I believe it is important we support her so we can win back the U.S. Senate this fall."

What can I say, the GOP is officially cowed by the teanuts.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Well, at least Rove is smart enough to know what's going on
The GOP should just cut O'Donnell off in both rhetoric (outside of token congratulations and whatnot) and be done with it.

Instead, Cornyn and the rest of the GOP now have to appease the teabaggers and pay as much lip-service as they can to O'Donnell.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
That's right Mitt
Insinuating that your opponent is gay and also needs to wear his "man pants" (what the hell?) is an impressive campaign.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
More good news for Chris Coons:
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...
In Delaware's Senate race, the upset on the Republican side of the ticket has been a boon for the Democrat. A campaign aide tells CNN Democratic Senate nominee Chris Coons raised $40-50,000 online in the two to three hours after word broke that the Tea Party-backed Republican Christine O'Donnell would be his challenger.

The campaign also expects plenty of help from the White House. According to the aide, Vice President Biden called Coons last night and they expect the Vice President, whose seat Coons is trying to win, to campaign for him just as he did during the primary. Aides say President Obama also has an open invitation.



Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
A few thoughts on the Delaware race
Rand Paul won the Kentucky primary, and I thought to myself "Wow, they picked the craziest possible candidate to run for anything."  And then Sharon Angle happened.  Then Dan Maes.  Then Joe Miller.  Now comes the icing on the cake.

That said (and we all know this here) don't just crown Chris Coons senator.  Does he have a huge advantage?  Of course.  Is he probably going to win by a comfortable margin?  I think so.  But he's got to go out and campaign for it every day between now and early November.  Especially in this environment, don't just assume voters anywhere are going to write O'Donnell off as crazy.

I actually feel bad for Mike Castle.  He and Bob Inglis and Lisa Murkowski and Bob Bennett are all good people, who are somewhere near the center of the constituents they represent, and have been dumped to unqualified, and in some cases, mentally unbalanced right wing challengers.

Finally, this race shows the absolute necessity of having good candidates on the Dem line in all races, because you never know what's going to happen.  The little bit I've read about Chris Coons, I'm pretty impressed.

The number one lesson from all these elections.
Do not be asleep at the wheel.

This applies to candidates AND parties.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Oh, it also applies double if you are intentionally driving
in especially dangerous conditions.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I'm perfectly comfortable crowning Coons as a Senator right now......
Coons himself, yes, needs to work his ass off everyday as if it's a tie ballgame and will be decided by one vote.  Same for his campaign staff and advisors and paid consultants and volunteers.

But for me, never having set foot in Delaware except to pass through by car or train, I'm going to safely assume voters everywhere will write off O'Donnell as crazy.

Yes Coons could blow it, it's always easy to lose, but he's not going to.  He's going to seize the opportunity that's fallen into his lap, and win in a blowout.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree with this...
I feel very comfortable in saying there's no way Coons loses. But if I were in Delaware, I would work my ass off for him nonetheless.  
[ Parent ]
If I were in Delaware
I would drive to MD-1 and campaign for Kratovil. Coons needs to keep working but volunteers are better needed elsewhere.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Nope, I don't think you can ever be too sure.
How would you feel if you made this decision and then woke up and found O'Donnell in contention (unlikely? yes. impossible? no).

This year, I don't think we should take anything for granted, especially when it comes to the Senate.

(now I might agree with you if were two weeks before the election and Coons is up by 20. Even then though, Kratovil is a mite too conservative for my tastes for me to actively campaign for him, although of course I support him over the nutjob he's running againt)

[ Parent ]
ThinkProgress' analysis on why Mike Castle lost:
http://thinkprogress.org/2010/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Looks like we're starting to see the supposed tail wagging the dog.
The irony is that, in the movie "Wag the Dog", the tail was the political elites, while in this case, the tail is actually the monster masterfully crafted by the elites, and the dog being wagged is the elites themselves.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
There's some hyperbole there, but it's much closer to accurate than the nonsense from Josh Kraushaar......
Kraushaar on Twitter and in a Hotline On Call piece tries to argue Castle lost because of backlash against his attacks on O'Donnell.  Seriously, that's what Kraushaar argues.  He says Delaware voters don't like negative campaigning, so they punished Castle.  He doesn't offer any evidence for the argument, it's pure conjecture, and impulsive and poorly conceived at that.

I parried with him on Twitter on his argument, and he never answered my point that if Castle didn't attack, the result would've been the same:  O'Donnell wins.  I made the point Castle wouldn't have attacked if his private polling didn't already show her making it a game.

Think Progress is on the better track, although in less hyperbolic terms it's simply that the voters decided Castle isn't conservative enough for them, the vote was purely ideological.  By "ideological" yes that includes the insane shit like birtherism and whatnot that isn't purely about policy, but conservative ideology necessarily encompasses veiled racism and other cultural lightning rods.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And this disproves Ryan_in_DelCo's statement
that DE Republicans are by and large, moderate.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Actually, user Ryan_in_DelCo was saying the opposite
at least recently, in his response here, ref http://www.swingstateproject.c...
[ Parent ]
tietack, did you see my apology reply comment?......
I had posted a comment to you that was poorly written that only in hindsight I realized it looked like a jab at you, when in fact it wasn't.  I posted an apology afterward.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Appreciate the highlight and apology
We're good.  
[ Parent ]
Literally
LOLed when I read this line:

Last night, anti-masturbation activist and Tea Party darling Christine O'Donnell (R-DE)



19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Wolf O'Donnell on Christine O'Donnell
"No way!  I don't believe it!"

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
If anybody's gonna tan your hide
it's gonna be me!

DO A BARREL ROLL!!!

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Can't let you do that, StephenCLE.
The Tea Party Express has ordered us to take you down.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
OK, methinks best-case-scenario for O'Donnell...
(First off, for now, I have this race pegged as Likely Dem.)

Democrat - 44%
GOP - 35%
Independent - 21%

Coons - 83/15/53 = 53%
O'Donnell - 17/85/47 = 47%

That's probably the most GOP-friendly model that's not implausible. Internals-wise, O'Donnell sweeps the 10% of Democrats who are self-described "conservatives," and siphons off about a fifth of moderate Dems. She's bound to have trouble among the Republicans, though - in '08, 24% of them voted for Biden and 18% for Obama. She needs to hope the disgruntled Castle supporters just stay home - they're more prone to vote Coons over her. Among Indies, she also has a steep climb. They went almost 2-to-1 for Obama and narrowly backed Kerry in '04 too. Let's pretend O'Donnell runs as competent a campaign as Bush '04 and garners the same 47%.

Even in this perfect storm, she can't pull within 5.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I agree with your models for the most part, but...
I don't think she'll make it this close.  
[ Parent ]
I nominate this as Christine's campaign song...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
Every Sperm is Sacred.

But before we completely dismiss her because it is Delaware let's remember Rod Grams in Minnesota.  

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

Interesting Historical Footnote
If Chris Coons and John Carney win the Senate and House races in Delaware in November, it will be the first time since 1899 that Democrats have held the Governorship, the two U. S. Senate seats, and the U. S. House seat.  Yes, that's 1899!
I
am really pumped about Chris Coons. I was just on his website and was heavily impressed. I think he has the possibility to be a long term incumbent and he is SO progressive. It's odd, I remember reading that he was moderate to conservative but that's not what his website says. That is even his tagline on his website, "a progressive voice for Delaware". He supports marriage equality, HCR, pretty much everything. He looks like your average Joe and I can not think of many more deserving. Most people here said this was the sleeper race of the cycle but no one really said it with conviction. I am sooooo happy to see him as the Senator-elect from DE. Thanks Sarah!  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
It's a smart call
It's an intelligent move to only move this to 'Lean' instead of 'Likely', since reality is so different from that poll.  The poll shows the Democrat ahead by 16 points, but that was taken in the middle of a huge, possibly multi-million dollar, ad buy by the Castle folks doing savage personal attacks on O'Donnell.  It was about a month and a half or so ago when a poll came out showing her ahead of the Democrat.  Then the attacks came, and she went down in the polls, but now that the primary is over, and the brutal attack ads from her own party have stopped, the polls will likely tighten again quickly.  I believe O'Donnell is going to win, and I think the best evidence of that is the incredible financial support she received today from folks across America, in a backlash to the treatment she received from the GOP Establishment.  The only thing better in 2010 than running against the Democratic Establishment in Washington, is running against the Establishment of both Parties, and that's what O'Donnell is doing, and that's why she's going to win in November.  
In the words of Barney Frank
On what planet do you spend most of your time?
[ Parent ]
Cool story, bro.
monkey eating bananas

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Yeah...suuuure
For some reason I bet you have an 8 x 11 glossy photo of Pat Buchanan near your bed.

O'Donnell is a joke.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Why isn't AK-Sen on SSPs Senate Ratings?
Should thik it's somewhere between tossup and lean rep. now?  
The kitty got in the dryer.
"Oh, thank you!  Oh, thank you!"

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Now to shut the door before the kitty can get back out.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: Defeat From the Jaws of Victory; SSP Moves to Lean D | 103 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox