Democratic House Speaker Armond Budish started things off on a confident note, predicting that his Caucus’ successful legislative effort on job creation and other campaign advantages would allow House Democrats to localize their races and survive a tough climate:
Democrats will do well against the odds based on the strength of a significant fundraising advantage of roughly 3-to-1 and a strong ground game focused on door-to-door campaigning, he said.
"State rep races are local and even though you all know there is a strong headwind this year, we will keep and expand the Democratic majority in the House because we have a strong message of job creation," Budish said. The Beachwood Democrat cited a film tax credit, a renewal of the Third Frontier program and a $100 million expansion of the Venture Capital Fund as job-creating efforts pushed by Democrats.
When told that GOP leaders were already predicting victory in the chamber, Budish gave a characteristically pithy response:
"At the local level, Ohioans understand that we have fought for them, and we've put their interest first," Budish said. "We're hearing that people want common-sense solutions. They don't want extreme ideology."
Talking to reporters, Budish gave the exact measurements of the windows in the speaker's office, suggesting that Minority Leader William G. Batchelder could now stop measuring the curtains and "maybe he can spend time working with us on policy for a change."
That same day, the Dayton Daily News profiled two districts where observers feel Democrats remain on the offensive:
Republican Seth Morgan holds the 36th District seat but is not seeking re-election because he ran for the GOP nomination for auditor and lost. Democrat Carl Fisher, Jr., a Huber Heights school board member, is running against Republican Michael Henne of Clayton, an insurance agency co-owner.
Henne was a GOP “second choice” who won the nomination after frontrunner Joe Ellis had a bar fight, Budish said.
The 72nd is more competitive but Republican incumbent Ross McGregor, who’s seeking re-election, won in 2006 and 2008, great years for Democrats.
Democrat Gregory Krouse, a teacher and president of the Springfield Education Association, is challenging McGregor.
Winning either of these districts would complicate GOP electoral math, but it would also strongly suggest Democrats are doing well enough statewide to retain their majority.
Finally, as if to reinforce Speaker Budish’s original point, Democrats got two pieces of good news for their candidates. First, the GOP nominee in the Columbus-based 25th district withdrew from the race – leaving Democratic nominee Michael Stinziano unopposed this November. Stinziano was already considered the favorite in this race, but one fewer open seat to worry about is always good news for the defending party.
Second, the AFL-CIO has announced the start of its own Get Out the Vote operation targeting 650,000 union households in Ohio:
The Ohio union has established 16 call centers in cities across the state from which voluteers talk nightly with prospective voters about union-friendly candidates. Ohio AFL-CIO, which represents 650,000 workers from 1,600 local unions, also is targeting direct mail and worksite leafleting to union households and members.
Focused on helping the Democrats’ statewide ticket, this effort is also likely to boost down-ticket Democrats in vote-rich swing areas of the state – exactly the areas where swing legislative districts tend to be concentrated.
Part 2 of this series will look at the Democratic House Caucus’ field effort.
