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Gubernatorial Cattle Call (September 2010)

by: James L.

Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 8:30 AM EDT


In lieu of a morning digest, let's continue our series of community surveys by holding a cattle call for all the Governor's races up this year.

In case you haven't done one of these before, rank the gov seats that are up this fall in order of likelihood of flipping party control. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State's gubernatorial race ratings. Have fun!
James L. :: Gubernatorial Cattle Call (September 2010)
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Gubernatorial Cattle Call (September 2010) | 43 comments
Blah
Wyoming
Kansas
Rhode Island (to D or I)
Tennessee
Michigan
Iowa
Hawaii
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Ohio
Minnesota
Florida
Illinois (painful to put it this high...)
California
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Maine
Georgia
Oregon
Texas
Maryland
Massachusetts
Vermont
Arizona
South Carolina
Idaho
New Hampshire
Nevada
Oklahoma
Alabama
Colorado
Arkansas
South Dakota
Utah
New York
Alaska
Nebraska

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
I am a dummy!
Move Oklahoma up between Iowa and Hawaii. I forgot that the current governor is a D.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Oh jeez...
Let me try...

Likely Flip:

Wyoming
Rhode Island
Kansas
Tennessee

Leans Flip:

Hawaii
Iowa
Connecticut
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Florida
Illinois

Tossup:

Ohio
California
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Maine
Oregon

Leans Retention:

Georgia
Texas
Maryland
Massachusetts
Nevada
Arizona
Vermont

Likely Retention:

Arkansas
New Hampshire
Oklahoma
Alabama
South Carolina
Colorado

Everything else looks safer than safe...



Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

haha, I just realized we made the same mistake...
assuming that Oklahoma would be a retention, when, in fact, it is most likely going to flip from D to R :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
WHOOPS!
Then in that case, change both of ours from "Likely Retention" to "Likely Flip". I guess it's so likely, we forgot Henry is still Governor (for the rest of the year)!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Rank and Probability (sounds like a Jane Austen book title)
Definite:
WY
KS
HI
OK
TN
IA
MI
PA
RI (R to I, possibly D)

Probable:
CT
FL
OH
MN
IL
WI
CA

Possible:
VT
NM
ME
TX
MD
GA

Unlikely:
MA
AZ
NV
SC
AL
NH
SD
CO
AK

Very unlikely:
AR
ID
UT

Definitely not:
NY
NE

My turn to mess up
California should be in the "possible" category, not "probable," but I would keep the ranking.
[ Parent ]
My guesses
Florida (I to D)
Kansas
Wyoming
Tennessee
Rhode Island
Iowa
Hawaii
Oklahoma
Ohio
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Minnesota
Michigan
Wisconsin
California
New Mexico
Maine
Oregon
Maryland
Vermont
Georgia
Texas
Colorado
Nevada
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Arkansas
Arizona
South Carolina
New York
Alabama
Idaho
South Dakota
Alaska
Utah
Nebraska
Interesting choice for Florida at #1
You really think Dems are more likely to win in Florida than Republicans in Wyoming and Kansas?  I think Sink will win, but her chances are nowhere near as good as the GOP's in extremely red states like WY and KS.
Florida is a 100% likely turnover
because Governor Crist is an Indy and there is no credible Indy running.  It's a technicality, but that's what blue onyx meant.  Nate Silver has Florida as the #1 flip for the same reason.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I assume that you were replying to my comment?
Florida has an Independent governor.  I don't think there are any viable Independents running so it's pretty much guaranteed that it will switch to another party.  If you view Florida as still having a Republican governor, then yes, it should be lower on the list.  
[ Parent ]
Here is a list not of my subjective belief
but one based on pollster.com polling averages.  This gets Republicans a whopping 14 pickups, with 6 Dem pickups, for a net of 8 to the Republicans.  Flips in bold.

1. Wyoming R+34
2. Kansas R+33
3. Michigan R+26
4. Tennessee R+22
5. Hawaii D+19
6. Iowa R+17
7. Rhode Island D+16
8. Oklahoma R+16
9. Pennsylvania R+12
10. Connecticut D+11
11. Maine R+11
12. Ohio R+10
13. Illinois R+10
14. Minnesota D+8
15. New Mexico R+6
16. Florida D+6
17. Wisconsin R+5
18. California R+5
19. Oregon R+4
20. Maryland D+3
21. Massachusetts D+5
22. Texas R+5
23. Georgia R+11
24. Arkansas D+13
25. South Carolina R+13
26. Alaska R+14
27. Idaho R+16
28. New Hampshire D+17
29. Vermont R+19
30. Nevada R+19
31. Arizona R+21
32. Colorado D+22
33. Alabama R+24
34. South Dakota R+30
35. Nebraska R+33
36. Utah R+34
37. New York D+35

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

California should be a hold on that list
Arnie is an R.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Oops right.


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
sure, why not?
1 (guaranteed gone for incumbent party): Kansas, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Wyoming.
2. Hawaii
3. Illinois
4. Michigan
5. Tennessee  
6. Iowa
7. Ohio
8. Minnesota
9. Connecticut
10. Maine
11. New Mexico
12. Florida
13. Oregon
14. Wisconsin
15. California
16. Texas
17. Georgia
18. Arizona
19. New Hampshire
20. Idaho
21. Maryland
22. Massachusetts
23. Vermont
24. Alaska  
25. Nevada
26. Alabama
27. Colorado
28. Arkansas
29. New York
30. Utah
31. Nebraska (So safe I keep forgetting it exists)
You forgot the Palmetto State - SC

[ Parent ]
I'll post this here
Shumlin now leads Dubie in Vermont according to Rasmussen, 49-46.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

You have got to be kidding me.
Rasmussen's last poll had Dubie up 19 on Shumlin.  Talk about a primary bounce!  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I know
Crazy. Poll was taken four days after the announcement of his win. Makes you wonder what he will give O'Donnell.
[ Parent ]
people here still want to argue
that Rasmussen cooks up numbers to "set a narrative"?

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Straw man.
Nobody says he cooks numbers, at least not here.  The argument was that he spams his polls out at such a rate as to dominate the media narrative.  He takes one-day samples, potentially compromising the accuracy of his polls, to be able to do so.

My thought now is that Rasmussen was never particularly pessimistic for Dems in relation to other pollsters.  He was just using a likely voter model much sooner than others.  He has lots of other problems, like the wording of his issue polling and his use of likely voter samples for non-horserace polling.  But I have not seen an accusation of "cooking" numbers on this site.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Oh please
His post-primary polls are a joke.
[ Parent ]
Yup, he had Deeds up 48-41 on McDonnell immediately post-primary in VA-Gov, and...
...I've detailed in my comments over time the very many ways in which Rasmussen is screwed up, mostly for the purpose of making Republicans and conservatives look good, but sometimes as a side effect there are bad polls that make Dems look stronger than they are.

That said, one can never say a Democrat leading by 3 in Vermont shows an inaccurate Democratic bias.  A Democrat winning in Vermont is never truly shocking, no matter what.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Dubie will be ahead again
Next time around.
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure

This poll make me doubt more about the previous results from Rassmusen for this race (what I was ignoring). Rasmussen gets polling alone this race with so bad results for dems in the last months. Now, likely, they will be more pollsters covering the race, and maybe they want not appear as very far from all other pollsters.

Im waiting to some poll from other pollster.

[ Parent ]
I'm no expert on Vermont politics, but my current hunch on this is...
Independent - 39%
Democrat - 33%
GOP - 26%

Dubie - 53/19/97 = 52%
Shumlin - 47/81/3 = 48%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
looks good, BUT
we have a cadre of (usually left to far left) third parties in VT that usually make up about 5% of the vote.  There's no progressive running this time around (She dropped out) but between the liberty union party, the marijuana party and a bunch of independents, Dubie 52 Shumlin 44 Other 4 is more likely.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I think the Progs said they weren't going to run anybody


30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
We need an open thread! Too much to say today! Can we treat this as one???......
Please, oh benevolent moderators?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
I would like to talk about
The email I just read from Markos. He wants 500 Kossacks to send Grayson $10? That makes me angry. He can look after himself. There are many, many more deserving Democrats running across the nation who could use financial help. Making a point is useless if you stand alone.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
Periello, Shea-Porter, Titus, Kagen, etc.  And that's just incumbents.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
It just seems to me
that Grayson makes these statements just to attract netroots support to begin with. Dude's smart, has money, and doesn't need mine.

I'd much rather give it to NY State Senate candidate like Tony Avella (disclosure:  I've volunteered for him), whose race might actually be more important in the grand scheme of things.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
Mine
SAFE FLIPS 100%

1. Wyoming
2. Kansas
3. Rhode Island (to I or D)

VERY LIKELY FLIPS >90%

4. Michigan
5. Tennessee
6. Nevada
7. Connecticut
8. Pennsylvania
9. Hawaii

LIKELY FLIPS >75%
10. Oklahoma
11. Florida
12. Illinois

LEAN FLIP >55%
13. Minnesota
14. Ohio
15. Wisconsin

TOSSUP ~50%
16. Maine
17. New Mexico
18. Oregon
19. California
20. Vermont

LEAN RETENTION <55%
21. Maryland
22. Texas
23. Massachusetts
24. Georgia

LIKELY RETENTION <75%
25. Arizona
26. South Carolina
27. Idaho

VERY LIKELY RETENTION <90%
28. Alabama

SAFE RETENTION 100%
29. Utah
30. Colorado
31. South Dakota

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

32. Nebraska


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
Err
I think you meant to put Nevada in the retention column? unless you think Rory Read is 90%+ likely to win? ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Reid, not Read.
I need to learn how to Reid.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Don't Swett it.


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
Away we go
1. Florida
2. Wyoming
3. Rhode Island
4. Kansas
5. Oklahoma
6. Tennessee
7. Hawaii
8. Michigan
9. Iowa
10. Connecticut
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Pennsylvania
**Insert Florida here if you consider it R-held**
14. Ohio
15. Maine
16. New Mexico
17. Wisconsin
18. Oregon
19. Vermont
20. California
21. Georgia
22. Texas
23. Massachusetts
24. Maryland
25. South Carolina
26. Arizona
27. Alabama
28. Nevada
29. Alaska
30. New Hampshire
31. Colorado
32. Arkansas
33. Idaho
34. South Dakota
35. Nebraska
36. Utah
37. New York

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Here's my list.
Again, this list may look crazy to some of you, but again, this is what I see. The voters will be the ultimate judges.

FLIPS
GONERS
(1) Wyoming
(2) Hawaii
(3) Tennessee
(4) California
(5) Connecticut

WILL NOT GO DOWN WITHOUT A FIGHT (these were the toughest to rank)
(6) Oklahoma
(7) Kansas
(8) Florida
(9) Georgia
(10) Texas
(11) Iowa
(12) Rhode Island (Chafee)
(13) Pennsylvania
(14) Illinois
(15) Michigan
(16) Alabama
(17) South Carolina
(18) Wisconsin
(19) Maine
(20) Massachusetts
(21) Minnesota

HOLDS
MOST COMPETITIVE
(22) Arizona
(23) Colorado
(24) New Mexico
(25) Vermont
(26) Ohio
(27) Maryland

RACES TO WATCH
(28) Oregon
(29) Nevada

NO CONTESTS
(30) Alaska
(31) Idaho
(32) Arkansas
(33) New York
(34) New Hampshire
(35) Utah
(36) South Dakota
(37) Nebraska

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

Ranking
1. Kansas
2. Tennessee
3. Wyoming
4. Oklahoma
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Pennsylvania
8. Illinois
9. Hawaii
10. Ohio
11. Minnesota
12. Maine
13. Connecticut
14. Rhode Island
15. New Mexico
16. Oregon
17. Wisconsin
18. Florida
19. Vermont
20. Maryland
21. Massachusetts
22. California
23. Georgia
24. New Hampshire

Nothing else looks to be competitive. Today, I'd say 1-18 flip, 19-24 hold.

how come you have RI so far down?
Robitaille is like, nonexistent in the polls. at least Foley in CT is keeping it high single digits/low double digits.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
in fact, I made RI my top pick (eom)

[ Parent ]
These are much harder than the Senate picks, at least for me
Safe Takeover (>95%)
1. Rhode Island (R to D/I)
2. Wyoming (D to R)

Likely Takeover (80-95%)
3. Kansas (D to R)
4. Hawaii (R to D)
5. Tennessee (D to R)
6. Oklahoma (D to R)
7. Iowa (D to R)
8. Michigan (D to R)
9. Pennsylvania (D to R)
10. Connecticut (R to D)
11. Minnesota (R to D/I)

Lean Takeover (60-80%)
12. Florida (R/I to D)
13. Illinois (D to R)

Tossup, Edge Takeover (50-60%)
14. California (R to D)
15. New Mexico (D to R)
16. Ohio (D to R)
17. Wisconsin (D to R)

Tossup, Edge Retention (40-50%)
18. Maine (D)
19. Georgia (R)

Lean Retention (20-40%)
20. Oregon (D)
21. Texas (R)
22. Maryland (D)
23. Vermont (R)
24. Massachusetts (D)
25. South Carolina (R)

Likely Retention (5-20%)
26. Arizona (R)
27. Idaho (R)
28. Nevada (R)
29. Alabama (R)
30. New Hampshire (D)

Safe Retention (<5%)
AK, AR, CO, NE, NY, SD, UT (no particular order)

Gubernatorial Cattle Call (September 2010) | 43 comments

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