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DE, MA, MD, NH, NY, RI & WI Results Thread #2

by: James L.

Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 9:03 PM EDT


10:06pm: In Rhode Island, in RI-01 with almost half in, it's Cicilline 36, Lynch 22, Gemma 22, Segal 20. And in RI-02 also with almost half in, it's Langevin 56, Dennigan 35.
10:02pm: As for the Dem House primaries in New York, we've got only 1% in in NY-14 but are looking at a blowout, with Maloney beating Saujani 83-17. There's only one precinct reporting in NY-15, with Rangel looking bad at 39% but still winning because of the fractured field.
10:01pm: Briefly back to NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster has been called by the AP as the winner, beating Katrina Swett. Still no call on the GOP side, where Charlie Bass faces Jennifer Horn.
10:00pm: Turning to some GOP House races, in NY-01 with 10% reporting, we have Altschuler at 46, Demos at 31, and Cox at 23. (More egg on the state GOP's face.) With 4% in in NY-23, Doug Hoffman leads Matt Doheny 55-45. (Remember if Doheny loses, he still has the IP line for November.)
9:58pm: Things are actually much tighter in the Senate race, where Joe DioGuardi had looked like the favorite. He leads David Malpass only 42-38, with Bruce Blakeman at 20. Kirsten Gillibrand is having little trouble with her primary challenge from Gail Goode, 77-23, on the D side.
9:56pm: Moving on to the Empire State, where there's finally enough votes to talk about. Maybe the biggest news: with 5% reporting, the teabagger trifecta may in fact be completed tonight: Carl Paladino is dominating Rick Lazio, 78-22. That should diminish, though, as the most precincts of any county have come in from Erie (which has Paladino's home town of Buffalo).
9:55pm: MA-10 has been called on the R side, with up-and-coming baggage-toting state Rep. Jeff Perry beating passe baggage-toting ex-state Treasurer Joe Malone.
9:53pm: Only 4% in in WI-08, but Reid Ribble seems on way to winning the GOP nod. He's at 55, leading Roth at 27 and McCormick at 15. Did the volleyball coaching make all the difference?
9:51pm: With 5% in statewide in WI-Gov, it's not looking as interesting as before. Walker leads Neumann 51-46. No problems for Johnson in WI-Sen, leading Westlake 84-11.
9:48pm: We're up to 325/325 in DE-AL... but no AP call. Glen Urquhart leads 49-48, with about a 500-vote edge.
9:47pm: Things are still happening verrrry slowly in New Hampshire. We're up to 16% reporting in NH-Sen, and it's 46 Lamontagne, 35 Ayotte, 11 Binnie, 7 Bender. Ovide's dominated in the commuter towns along I-93, which is his core area.
9:44pm: And with 3% reporting, it's a little closer in RI-02 than expected: Jim Langevin leads Betsy Dennigan only 53-38.
9:43pm: Also a few numbers from Rhode Island. In RI-01, with about 1% reporting, David Cicilline leads, with David Segal in 2nd, followed by Lynch and Gemma: 41-27-16-16.
9:37pm: We're getting our first Wisconsin dribbles in, and maybe it's too early to talk about it with less than 1% in, but the GOP gube primary is looking interesting: Scott Walker and Mark Neumann are both at 48, with Walker up by only 12 votes.
9:36pm: Hey, did we mention there's a GOP primary for MD-Sen (to go up against Barb Mikulski)? I'd assumed Eric Wargotz, a wealthy county commissioner from the Eastern Shore, had it locked down after Amadore dropped out, but he's only leading the heretofore unknown J. Rutledge 34-32.
9:34pm: And up in Southie, the AP just called MA-09 for Stephen Lynch, who survives his weird anti-HCR gambit. He beats Mac d'Alessandro 64-36.
9:32pm: In case you're wondering about the percentages on some of those Maryland races we glossed over, the GOP gube primary wasn't even close (memo to Brian Murphy: Sarah Palin can't save you now). It was Ehrlich 81, Murphy 19. And in MD-04, it was even more lopsided: Donna Edwards beat state Del. Herman Taylor 81-13.
9:30pm: The gap's closing on the R side in DE-AL. Michelle Rollins only back by about 500 behind Glen Urquhart.
9:28pm: In NH-01, we're up to 25% reporting, and Frank Guinta's lead is getting smaller as places other than Manchester report. He's now at 41, with Rich Ashooh at 30 and Sean Mahoney at 20.
9:20pm: Big shift in MA-10, with Keating pulling into the lead in the Dem primary at 53-47. I'd like to attribute that to him tackling that purse snatcher, but actually it has to do with Norfolk (the county where he's DA) coming him with 79% for him.
9:18pm: The DE DoE leapt to 320/325, with a 53/47 margin. Looks like a done deal.
9:17pm: Anyone wanna guess what those PPP numbers on the Coons/O'Donnell matchup are, that they teased today?
9:16pm: The AP calls it for O'Donnell!!!! (The Giants win the pennant! The Giants win the pennant!)
9:11pm: Sorry about the slow servers tonight, folks; looks like we're getting a lot of traffic. At any rate, here's a longish update to make up for lost time.
In MD-01, Andy Harris is rolling, 69-31, over Rob Fisher, including 65% on the Eastern Shore (Fisher's turf). In MA-10, it's O'Leary over Keating, 60-40 with 11% reporting, for the Ds, and for the Rs, it's Perry with 69% over Malone. In MA-09, Lynch is in control, at 64%. In NH-01, Guinta leads with 16% in, at 43%. In NH-Sen, Lamontagne leads in every county but one (Coos), over 50%, with only 7% still reporting. One more update from DE-Sen: O'Donnell leads Castle 54-46 with 85% reporting, with a 4000 vote spread.

Fresh new thread.


Results:

James L. :: DE, MA, MD, NH, NY, RI & WI Results Thread #2
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teabaggers have stormed the Castle
81% in
54% O'Donnell
46% Castle

given her anti-masturbatory views...
wasn't O'Donnell already "Queen of the Castle?"

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
logging in to eat crow
I said a few days ago that Castle would win easily. I based this in large part on an assumption that there would be enough strategic voters to pick Castle as the most electable candidate even if O'Donnell was closer to their own views. That used to work at least at the presidential level, but it doesn't seem to be working this year.

Congratulations to senator-elect Chris Coons.

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
Well, I wasn't too far off
in predicting a close Castle win, but I was expecting the decades of voter goodwill and the lack of nepotism to work more in Castle's favor than the dislike among the party base against him. Obviously I was wrong.

Now most of the primaries are over, except Hawaii and Louisiana runoffs, so now it's time to see how these nuts fare in the general. (My hunch: not as well as they think.)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Tonight
Tonight is a fucking AWESOME NIGHT!!!

I LOVE YOU GOP, I LOVE YOU BECAUSE YOU ARE SO STUPID!!!!!!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


Poor poor poor
Castle... I guess he can retire now..... I guess.... :)

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Seriously
It actually is kind of sad.  I'm as happy as every other Democrat, but Castle seems like a nice guy who totally got screwed by a loon.  He should've listened to his wife and sailed into the sunset.

Male, 23, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
I aggree
I am angry when I think about what they did, but I am also sad for Castle. HE seems like a really nice guy and he has had a great career, He does not deserve this.  

[ Parent ]
At least his wife now gets his wish
and they can retire in style down in Florida.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I mean "her wish"


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I agree.
I too feel bad for Castle.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
He just needs to realize
this is simply the beauty of politics.  He now gets to be a giant footnote in history as Id call him the marquee example of what has happened this cycle.  A very popular 30 year-statewide elected official got beat by a complete neophyte in a state where these morons, by CW, shouldnt even have that much clout.

I cant wait for the books to start coming out about this cycle, what a total shit show this has all been.


[ Parent ]
Well, one historical parallel was '66
A bunch of neophytes defeated establishment GOP'ers. The marquee race being CA-Gov, where Ronald Reagan defeated moderate SF mayor George Christopher, who most observers considered the runaway favorite.

Of course, that didn't work out so well for the Democrats in either the short or the long run. I expect 2010 and 2012 will still wind up being better.


[ Parent ]
Yes, but Reagan was a lot more reasonable than these folks.
At least he wanted the state government to work.

[ Parent ]
I agree too
Not that I think Castle was great or even good, but we can all stipulate that he was at least sane and decent.

I don't share in the good spirits about the crazy people winning Republican primaries. Even if some go down, whereas more normal Republicans would have won, still a lot of them will probably win in November. If, God forbid, the Republicans win the House or Senate, those lunatics will be calling a lot of shots. At the very least, they'll be in Congress, gumming up any attempt to hammer out humane, thoughtful policies.


[ Parent ]
Castle actually stood up for Obama
During a "Tea bagger" moment, he told a crazy, racist lady that Obama was, in fact, born in the U.S.

From what I gathered, the Republican party doesn't like Castle and his 40+ years of service to Delaware.

Could it be that saying something that is truthful regarding our President is a "no-no" amongst GOP voters?


40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Maybe he should have kept
his integrity in the last few years. He voted lock step with the decidedly right leaning (far right) republican caucus.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Sad for America
I know this a Democratic site and tonight's result is good for Democrats but seeing one of the major parties veer so far out of the mainstream is not good for the country.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I agree completely.
You don't hear this point made as much as it ought to be. This is not a time for rejoicing, really.

[ Parent ]
That ship sailed a long time ago.
The tea party victories just put it all out in the open IMO.

[ Parent ]
Its actually very sad
The quantity of sad is equal to (sadness of seemingly decent public servant ending his career in ignominy) + (sadness of homophobic smears and extremism prevailing in a state known for its politics of civility) - {(happiness of one senate seat) x (.78)}

[ Parent ]
I'm not sad
Coons is better than Castle, and I don't care if Castle has served 40+years in Delaware.

As Republicans like to say "The people have spoken!"

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
well
it certainly wont be sad to watch her get thumped in november. especially if she's bitter.

[ Parent ]
Don't feel bad for him
He treated this race like it was a coronation, not an election. He deserved what he got.

[ Parent ]
Ovide's perfomance tonight has been Homeric


I think it's over in Delaware.
Fifty precincts left, and O'Donnell has a 4,000 vote lead.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

That NY Repub Gov primary...
...is some crazy crap. I hope old crazy guy wins it instead of slightly younger, slightly less crazy guy.

Sadly...
Rick Lazio is leading Paladino 6 votes to 2 so far.

[ Parent ]
Oh pleasant surpise...
Paladino 85% to Lazio's 15% (with 4 precincts).

HaHa!


[ Parent ]
MSNBC showed what is apparently an MTV video of O'Donnell
Talking about the evils of masturbation.

I am rolling on the floor laughing.


is there a link?
n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I assume when they post Maddow's show later on tonight on MSNBC.com
That it'll be on there.

[ Parent ]
In honor of Christine O'Donnell's spectacular win, I promise to
refrain from masturbation for 48 hours.  Anybody with me?

(P.S. I'm male, so obviously this is quite a disruption to my life)

Congrats Christine !!  


[ Parent ]
I've been married for 15 years
And trust me, 48 hours is a big commitment for what you are asking!

I'm with you on this one, however...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Not me
back in 5

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
The Republicans basically just decided
to spot us a seat tonight.  Maybe two, depending on how things go in NH.

Ovid's percentage is down, but his lead is almost 4,000 votes.
He leads Ayotte in every county that's reported something except one (where she leads by five votes)

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Just 25 precincts out of 301
Bad job NH.

[ Parent ]
don't blame NH
Blame the Republicans of NH...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
reply
Now it's suddenly down to 2900.  Long way to go

[ Parent ]
I think I miscounted.
And it was 3000, not 4000.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
DE- Sen: AP calls it...
Or so says Rachel Maddow.

Castle has indeed been stormed.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)


Joe and Beau can twist in the wind
and once again the key message of the night is, no matter what, running a solid candidate always makes sense, even if it looks like a longshot.

Hehe, I don't know anything about Coons, but I hope he is President in 20 years and appoints beau to be ambassador to Albania.


Beau
Beau is going to get quite a beating from daddy for this misfire

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Now we know what is going on
if Beau ends up in the hospital again, mysteriously.  

[ Parent ]
27 out of 301 precincts in NH
Ovide 49%, Ayotte 34%.

She's...making progress. I guess.


AP has called it for O'Donnell
this is suddenly a likely Democratic win instead of a likely Republican one

Nate Silver said 95% R hold w/ Castle win
17% R Hold with O'Donnell win.

[ Parent ]
Not an R hold, this is a Democratic seat
Currently held by Ted Kaufman, who was named to replace Joe Biden.

It would have been a R takeover, not a R hold.

But not likely now.


[ Parent ]
Oh my
What have they done! Snicker.

[ Parent ]
And the trend of the 21st century continues...
the Republican party marginalizes itself into a phone booth.

In this case, with a complete nutjob in the phone booth too.


[ Parent ]
This is now SAFE Democratic, not "likely." Coons will obliterate her and remember that...
...he's already been running TV ads.

The 3rd-biggest loser tonight behind Castle himself and the national GOP:  Coons' oppo research staff, whose workdays just got a whole lot longer!  Forget your families for the next 2 months, gang!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I thought Delaware was known for their clean
campaigns, which is why people got so surprised at how ugly the Castle-O'Donnell race got.

[ Parent ]
It got nasty because O'Donnell truly is an outsider in a state with bipartisan insiders......
There is a bipartisan "establishment" in Delaware that is the result of it being an inherently small and intimate state.

O'Donnell is not part of that.  For good reason, because she's fucking insane and also a complete fraud.

So any race involving her making a serious run becomes ugly fast.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Congratulations Senator-elect Chris Coons


It's over in Delaware
Five precincts outstanding.  53-47 O'Donnell.  Castle's not making that up.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Fuck it
Well, on the bright side, on election night the suspense of a potential Republican senate takeover is gone.  

I think you just
Redefined "cold comfort" there, buddy. But seriously, there's never been a better time to become a Democrat.  :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Beau
I think a lot of people here are being really unfair to Beau. He was in Iraq when others were able to set the groundwork for a senatorial run. He is still really young, and will be a solid candidate for governor in a few years.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Beau
No one's angry because he didn't run, but everyone was angry that he waited until the last minute to decide not to run. Castle even jumped in when Beau took too long to scare him away and have an (snicker) easy race to the Senate.

We got lucky with Coons entering that race.  

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


[ Parent ]
Governor?
Is Jack Markell going somewhere? I agree with your general point, but Beau Biden might have to wait more than a few years.

[ Parent ]
Markell is a fine governor, but he won't be governor forever.
Beau is 41, and could spend the next 30 years holding any number of political offices for the Democrats in Delaware.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Tom Carper may retire
I remember reading some speculation about him possibly retiring in 2012. I mean, who knows, but he will be over 70.  

[ Parent ]
Mike Castle
I'm not positive, but this may be the first race he ever lost, or at least the first in 40-something years.

Florida beckons, Mike!

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


I bet his wife is thrilled
and in six months he will be too.  His choice to run for the dysfunctional Senate instead of retire to greater happiness was one of the oddest of the cycle.

[ Parent ]
Can't blame him though for trying
He probably would have just served the rest of this term and then retired, as a bookend to his long career serving the state.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Matthews babbling about Hilllary voters supporting O'Donnell
Shut up moran.

Does the dumbass even KNOW it's a closed primary???......
So Hillary voters switched party registration to vote for O'Donnell, of all people?  All so they could indirectly stick it to Obama by indirectly sticking it to Biden, all contingent on O'Donnell actually winning the seat?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
How can such an elitist be so stupid?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Dubya
Made it fashionable.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
He's in the Beltway
and he seems to have a crush on Hillary.

And I suspect no one sane takes him seriously.


[ Parent ]
Now the race is
 O'Donnell 27,674  53.7%
Castle 23,874 46.3%

85.5% in

I wish they would say where in Delaware these votes are from. Even if the rest were from New Castle County, there is no way it is enough. MSNBC already called it for O'Donnell. If Ayotte loses in New Hampshire, it will be a great night.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


No, it's over.
The Delaware elections board says there are only five precincts left to be counted.  Doesn't matter where they are.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Langevin trails in RI
By one vote.  

This is truly beyond hilarious...
I'm watching NBC and seeing these loon supporters of COD dancing around in Delaware. Chris Matthews is a total dipshit talking about how COD's enthusiastic supporters are going to carry her into the general election and comparing her to Ronald Reagan.  

LOL
Matthews is one patronizing son of a bitch.  I bet that he's saying one thing but believing something else.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I'm sure he is getting a tingle down there
asshat.  

[ Parent ]
I think
I think they're trying to appear "fair and balanced."

And it's not working (no one believes that they believe what they're saying)--only Lawrence O'Donnell is basically saying the DE seat is now a DEM hold.


[ Parent ]
Yeeeeeeeeeehaw!
Now come on Lamontagne! Bring a second win home for the... good guys? I guess?

Yikes
    Republican State Senator Booth from Sussex county nearly got tea-bagged out of office.  He won by just 120 votes out of 4200.

24, Male, GA-05

Their anti incumbent message
 Is so strong it knocked out the candiate who was thought to be one of the most popular incumbents, someone who had not lost an election in 30 years in Delaware, who almost every voter knew. What people said about Delaware Republicans not being so conservative...

Maybe there was just really big turnout in Sussex County but still...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


I said it a couple years ago
the DE GOP went from 35% of registered voters to 29%.

That major shrinkage made it a whole lot more conservative.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
I mean days ago


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
PPP Coons lead
Will be double digits. Even Rasmussen has him up 11.

Coons 56, O'Crazy 40 something
n/t

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but don't worry
her primary bounce will push her up by 5 in Rass's next poll.  

[ Parent ]
From MSNBC
Entire NRSC statement: "We congratulate Christine O'Donnell for her nomination this evening after a hard-fought primary campaign" in DE.

Translation:
"FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK!"

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I was thinking the same thing


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
They're probably really saying "DAMN, DAMN, DAMN" like Florida Evans


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
anxiously awaiting a statement from
Delaware Republican Party Chairman Tom Ross.

[ Parent ]
He is likely through
The Tea Partiers won't forgive him, and he can't credibly support O'Donnell after this point. The bigger problem is that the same could be said for the rest of the party apparatus.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Wasn't the DE GOP
in a pretty bad state of disarray anyway? This was once a pretty 50/50 state that has gone so far to the Dems that it will be left with only one state office after November (assuming Dem wins in DE-Sen and DE-AL)

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
O'Donnell won by more than I thought she would
I predicted 51%-49%. But, nevertheless, she won, so I can say I was one of the ones that was right.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

I predicted 52-48 O'Donnell
So I was a little off.

I think someone else had 55-45 O'Donnell.


[ Parent ]
Defeat from the jaws of victory, Delaware GOP
n/t

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

Too strange
The song "Another one bites the dust" has just blasted accross my household.

I doubt 96.1 is referring to Castle....

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


Is the senate safe enough...
that we can think about rooting against Reid to get a better leadership? Man, imagine if Durbin made them actually fillibuster for months at a time every time they wanted to block something. Course that assumes a narrow hold on the house.  

And have Angle as a Senator
Have you lost your mind?

[ Parent ]
All she can do is vote
and generate talking points. Which have a certain up-side.  

[ Parent ]
Not true
She can put holds on everything.  A single Senator has great ability to be extremely disruptive.

[ Parent ]
depends on the leadership...


[ Parent ]
Try again
We don't need another fucking idiot in the Senate.  Good chance that Paul will be in there to generate the talking points.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
If we are going to concede that 60 votes are necessary for any
remotely controversial (or, at this point, uncontroversial) legislation, we've already lost the Senate, since we are obviously not likely getting back to 60. Its another way to think about the big picture. I dont know that it's a clear cut question. Mull, is all I'm saying.

[ Parent ]
Big picture?
Listen to Angle and make the determination on whether the good folks from NV needs a nut-job senator representing them.


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I've listened
she is a reprehensible lunatic, and sure sounded like she was encouraging the assassination of Harry Reid. And she'll probably be in good company in the class of '010. Rhetoric and tone matter and boundaries of discourse matter a lot. Individual senate seats matter. Leadership might matter more. Maybe.

[ Parent ]
You forget about...
all the constituent services that she probably won't give a shit about.  To which actual Nevadans will suffer.

[ Parent ]
it matters.
it's one seat.

[ Parent ]
No thanks
Six years of Sharron Angle is too frightening to contemplate.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Mother fuck, I just went and got the tequila
so I could party while the numbers come in.  I missed all the fun.

Here's to celebrating!


Funny
We're both grabbing the hard stuff tonight.  

[ Parent ]
In New Hampshire
Lamontogue is leading 48%-34% with 11% in

He is leading by 24 points in Hillsborough County, New Hampshire's most popoulus county and he is leading by 8 in Rockingham, New Hampshire's second most popoulus. Even  if Ayotte does well outside of these counties, she still should not win. Even when Rommney carried the two big counties by about 1 point, he still only lost by 5 statewide.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


To RyaninDelCo:
I'm sorry too.  I could not believe they'd choose O'Donnell.  Although I'm happy for Coons' chances, it still bothers me that the Delaware Republican base has gone off the reservation

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


It's not Delaware, it's Republicans EVERYWHERE. This is the most extreme...
...relatively to their real-time America that Republicans have EVER been.

I say "relative to real-time America" because in absolute terms America was an extreme right-wing country for most of its history by today's ideological measures.  Republicans, even when pretty reactionary, were never so far removed from the country of the times.

Today, the GOP is completely off the reservation compared to the nation.

And really, wins by people like Paul and Angle and Miller and O'Donnell have potential for settling into the national consciousness these last couple months the idea that the GOP is just too extreme.  Democrats will argue that case with plenty of material to support it, and I hope voters listen.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I know, but I always thought DE GOPers to be a moderate crowd.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Indeed
The only reason we didn't, for example, end up with a teabagger in my house district (OR-1, Wu's district) is there were 3 of them who split about 60% of the primary vote.

Now Wu is going to hold that seat easily, although less easily than he would had a teabagger won.


[ Parent ]
Todays Republican party if fucking nuts
And they are holding McConnell, Cornyn, and Steele by the nuts, so they are scared to speak up. The whole leadership of the Republican party needs to be changed to people who understand electability, but also please the base, like Coburn and Pence.  

[ Parent ]
It's a bit sad though
 That voters are supporting candidates this extreme. I am happy of course for the Democrats having all these chances. Still, seeing the voters pick all these extreme candidates, even in supposedly moderate state Delaware says something about the Republican party. And the teabaggers want to appeal to minorities and Jews? Really?  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Campaign expert Amy Walter tweets before she thinks on DE-Sen in November.....
Walter tweets:

DSCC psyched in DE, but a Castle loss undermines "go negative" strategy Dems are counting on in Nov. Castle and media went after her hard

Um, Amy, no, it's not undermined at all because only Republican primary voters are batshit insane.  Everyone else is voting for Coons.  You're smart enough to know the difference between voters, you should know better.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Like we've seen with Angle in NV
We don't even have to do much, let the Repubs kill themselves with their extreme positions.

[ Parent ]
They are locked into their meme
They predict huge GOP gains so that is how they see everything.

[ Parent ]
She means
Across American, not just in DE SEn.  

[ Parent ]
So why use a GOP primary
In Delaware to prove a point? It proves nothing.

[ Parent ]
I don't think so, her tweet comes off as specfically about Delaware. I think what she did is...
...put fingers to keypad before thinking through a brainstorm.

I can imagine the brainstorm, without pausing:  "Attacking O'Donnell didn't work in the primary so it might not work for November."

An appropriate pause leads to:  "Well, no, a GOP primary electorate is nothing like a general electorate."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Whereas I walk back my last comment: Amy Walter vindicates GOPVoter......
She tweets a follow-up that she did not, indeed, mean Delaware, but nationally.

But her argument still doesn't work.  You can't say failure of attacks on O'Donnell in a primary undermines Dems attacking Republicans elsewhere, that makes no sense.

On the contrary, we now have enough extremists winning GOP primaries that Democrats' case is stronger than ever across-the-board that Republicans as a whole are just too extreme.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Amy Walter does not know what she's talking about
She came up with this instant analysis that fits into the narrative that we are going to lose everywhere in 6 weeks. The GOP has gone completely off the reservation. Castle and the media started going after her hard last week. That is not analogous to a long term campaign strategy.

If they would've started taking her seriously two or three weeks ago, Castle would be the nominee tonight.

The woman has more damning soundbites than Sharron Angle. She lives off her campaign contributions for God's sake. She's afraid of the opposition hiding in the bushes! I don't expect to see it in Coons' campaign ads, but I certainly expect to hear more about her stint as an anti-masturbation crusader in the next month and a half.  


[ Parent ]
Over-Extending a Point
I think Amy is extending her point too far, but it seems likely to me that Castle's go negative strategy did backfire. His strongest argument was that he had done a lot for the state and that people liked him. By going massively negative he negated that and fought the race on O'Donnell's turf.

That said, this is the same thing Reid is doing, and the consequence is Nevada is that the race is being fought on his turf.

The difference is that in Nevada, voters actually agree with Reid on the issues but don't like him. In Delaware the situation was reversed. The voters agreed with O'Donnell on the issues but liked Castle better. Going negative therefore backfired.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Yes,
You could just feel, even on the other end of the country, that the condescension and haughty laughter of Ross and the negative personal attacks of the Castle campaign were going to backfire. That's a lesson to be drawn by Democrats: stick to issues and show respect (even if you don't really feel any).

[ Parent ]
whither the biden dynasty
or to put it another way, sucks to be beau

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

nah, beau will run when carper retires
the biden dynasty will live again.  unfortunately.

[ Parent ]
Say hello to Sen Carney then
Beau will not be a US Senator in the next two decades (unless somebody dies and he is appointed).

[ Parent ]
think
he'll switch to gov in 8 years?  quicker than waiting on carper.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Anyone still discount PPP?
I think they really proved their chops tonight.  

Indeed
Particularly since they actually have the balls to call a race at the end. Naming no names.  

[ Parent ]
yo
thats a fact.
and the turn in FL-SEN is bearing them out as well.

[ Parent ]
GOPvoter, Ryan_in_del_CO
you guys are okay right?  no computer smashing fits of rage, right?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Thank God
PPP warned us. If not, it would probably be happening. However, now, I am also hoping Angle loses. Maybe if Angle and O'Donnell lose, and Reid is a horrible (for Reps) majority leader, and Coons is a very liberal Senator, they MAY learn something.  

[ Parent ]
they?
with all due respect, you guys have nominated angle, odonnell, paul and possible lamontagne (which isn't as bad).  I get your beliefs that the policies dems are enacting are bad, but at least they're able to elect enough people to make policy.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
And somewhere in Washington
John Cornyn pours himself a shot.

Actually
at this point he's probably shotgunning a bottle of rotgut.

[ Parent ]
Just a shot?
I'd expect he's just drinking straight from the bottle by now.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

[ Parent ]
Just wait until
the NH results come in....  :-)

[ Parent ]
Nice results
With Angle in Nevada and O'Donnell in Delaware it looks like Dems might be able to avoid a landslide.

Would Beau primary Carper?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Can't imagine.


[ Parent ]
He could retire
I remember reading when Beau first bowed out that there was speculation Carper may retire in 2012. Although he'll only be 65, so it seems a little doubtful. But you never know.  

[ Parent ]
Carper would retire
in 2012.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
On MSNBC
 They are saying it is an anti establishment year, not exactly an anti incumbent year. The voters are protesting the establishment because they are fed up with their party. Although the news says that it is an anti Democratic year, many polls show that most voters do not like the Republicans either.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Meanwhile, back at the ranch...I mean, New Hampshire
Ovide's percentage margin has decreased some, but his lead is still around 2,800 votes.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Almost 3000 now.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
New Hampshire needs to speed this shit up
I mean, jeez.  They closed the polls a hour earlier, and they only have 12% reported?!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

This may be off topic
but seriously, Chris Matthews is really bugging me (not the first time, that's for sure).

He seriously believes that Christine O'Donnell could win the Senate race, because 1. Women seem to like her, and women only vote for people who share their chromosomes (an exaggeration, but basically he is saying that.) and 2. OMG She has so much momentum!

It would probably be off-topic for me to just rant about Chris Matthews, so I'm going to channel my frustration into a germane post and just ask about the electoral implications of these two arguements he's making:

Can either of these supposed advantages, even if they have some real basis, overcome the fact that O'Donnell is just plain incompetent?


Absolutely not!
Her fringe loon support isn't enough to win a general election and women don't just automatically vote for the woman in a race. It's really sexist for him to suggest that she's in any way similar to Secretary Clinton.

[ Parent ]
I could give you 30 examples of the fact that women don't always get female votes in OR alone
From state leg. races....

[ Parent ]
She has neither women's support nor real momentum
Matthews is clearly incompetent. I'm surprised he hasn't given a metaphor comparing Delaware to Pennsylvania yet. He did this in 2008 too; he just can't fathom how different primary and general electorates are.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Absolutely no way in hell
this lunatic wins a general election in Delaware. Not after a primary this bloody. And just not. Chris is on glue.

[ Parent ]
I don't really agree with you all, though I wish I did.
You never know what will happen in an election, how the dynamics will play out. She has a chance. Nate says a 17% chance. That's scary. And I do think she has some momentum. I hope that the Coons campaign will handle the challenge more sharply that the inept Castle campaign did. You obviously have to do something different than belittle O'Donnell. That doesn't work.  

[ Parent ]
Castle's hands were tied
he had to get personal because he couldn't draw issue contrasts with her. Coons can paint her as an extremist without throwing foul punches. Not that Castle's attacks were unfair

[ Parent ]
Johnson cruising in WI
With 80% of the vote early.

Nate Silver on MSNBC right now


And he is
 Talking swing state project style, mentioning all the polls like the one that showed Castle ahead by three points (PPP) and he mentions that map of his with 2-3 chance of GOP taking the House. He now mentioned if Lamontagne wins in New Hampshire, 15% chance for Republicans there.

He said that 30% chance of taking Senate is now 12% for Republicans.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Can Nate replace Chris on election night?
Please, pretty please.

[ Parent ]
38 precincts in NH
showing once again VT is better than NH.  we had a lot up by now last month.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

After seeing what happened to Castle
I bet Mark Kirk is thanking Jeebus for early primaries in Illinois and that the Tea Party Express didn't get involved on Patrick Hughes' behalf.

Although
 Lamontagne is now ahead by 12, I think he should still win because it seems that the counties outside of Rockingham/Hillsborough are reporting. Those counties seemed to be going to Ayotte by a small margin but it is not nearly enough.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


WI-Gov: Neumann definitely has a shot
No polling data obviously, but lots of people on the ground here in Wisconsin (including myself) think that Neumann has an excellent chance to pull it out.  As one Republican blogger noted earlier this morning, Neumann has been acting like a candidate who is ahead, and Walker has been acting like a candidate who has blown a 40 point lead and has been trying to climb back into the lead.  

Also, your preview suggesting that Barrett has polled better against Neumann than against Walker... not too many people in Wisconsin think that Neumann is actually a weaker candidate.  We actually think it will be much tougher for Barrett to beat Neumann than it would have been to beat Walker.  


Whats going on in DC?
Polls closed at 9, no link?  

DC BoE
http://dcboee.org/election_inf...

No results as of yet... most frustrating, indeed.

Male, 23, DC-At Large


[ Parent ]
DE-Sen and AL are all in:

UNITED STATES SENATOR

325 of 325 Districts Reported

REPUBLICAN PARTY
 MICHAEL N. CASTLE 26201 820 27021 46 . 9 %
 CHRISTINE O'DONNELL 29882 679 30561 53 . 1 %

325 of 325 Districts Reported

REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS

REPUBLICAN PARTY
    ROSE IZZO 2025 57 2082 3 . 7 %
    MICHELE ROLLINS 26045 744 26789 47 . 7 %
    GLEN URQUHART 26651 690 27341 48 . 6 %

As to the House seat, does DE have an automatic recount threshold?

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)


Its WAY too wide a margin to trigger a recount
Or if it did, it wouldn't change much.  

The total may be off by, maybe 100 votes if that.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, there's no way it would make a difference
Given it's a 600-ish vote gap.  But percentage-wise, I know that auto recounts vary state to state...0.5%, 1%, etc.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

[ Parent ]
The room where Castle was going to declare victory.
Feels like a graveyard now. :(
http://www.facebook.com/photo....

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Best comment
"What exactly would Castle have blocked? He voted with Obama on almost everything."

This is it in a nutshell.


[ Parent ]
I was just going to post that!
Seriously, it is hard for sane people to udnerstand the comments of insane people, but people should just read through the comments on this Facebook page.  Incoherent, factually absurd, mean-spirited comments reflecting the "thought" of a large part of the "energized" GOP...

The one dude seems to be saying good riddance to everyone who doesn't type in all caps...


[ Parent ]
AHAHA
I think I'm going to enjoy the party infighting on the internet over the next couple days more than what actually happened tonight.  Time to fire up that microwave and start heating up that popcorn.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Man...
they're having their own GOP civil war in the comments section of that photo.

[ Parent ]
What
a sad way to end a 40 year career. I admit I feel a bit sad for Castle. I am still very happy though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

I was just about to post something similar
It's sad to end your career by losing to a loon.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Right now
 Katrina Swett, Tom Lantos's daughter is getting a challenge from the left. Apparently, she is losing by 50 points to strongly pro choice Ann Kuster with 12% in.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Swett
She's a Lieberdem. Hopefully she loses big.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
It's been called for Kuster (nt)
 

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

[ Parent ]
I have mixed feelings about this race.
If the DCCC needs to spend their money elsewhere to avoid losing extra seats, I'd rather Swett win so she can lose big, and we can get rid of her for good. On the other hand, I am politically more aligned with Kuster.

And I think either will probably lose to the Republican.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
*watches Mike Castle concede*
I think he's about to break into tears.  Poor guy.  :(

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Sucks to be him...
A small part of me feels sorry for him. He is a decent man and represents a brand of sane Republicanism that died off a long time ago. His political career is obviously over. I wonder if Biden can get him to endorse Chris Coons now.

[ Parent ]
I feel sad for Castle too
 He is a moderate and he has worked so hard throughout his career of more than 30 years. He also was really nice to everyone, especially his wife.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Castle
"I am very proud of the integrity and honesty of everyone involved in my campaign"

Slap.


What the hell,
I mean this is just upstate so far, no NYC in, I think, but Paladino's cruising so far, getting more than 75%.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

Lazio's base should be Long Island and NYC (for whatever the latter is worth).
Paladino is the upstate/rest of NY candidate.

[ Parent ]
Some MA results.
MA-04: 52% reporting

Barney Frank 82%
Dining Room Table 18%

MA-09: 56.4% reporting

Stephen Lynch 66%
Mac D'Alessandro 34%

MA-10: 55% reporting

Keating 52%
O'Leary 48%


I've moved on from anger
To pure sadness for Mike Castle, his wife, and his supporters. This is probably really hard on his wife after watching his sickness years ago and campaigning for him that year, and knowing how bad he wanted to be a Senator (She let him run b/c she said it would break her heart to tell him no).  

Me too.
After hearing his concession speech, I just want to go into the TV and hug him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Where can I see it?


[ Parent ]
I saw it on MSNBC.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Me too.
After hearing his concession speech, I just want to go into the TV and hug him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yeah, it really doesn't make any sense.
I mean, I'm glad he lost, because it means we keep the seat, but Castle, though not particularly moderate in his voting, was moderate in temperament, which is a valuable asset in a democracy (see also:  Dick Lugar).  He did nothing to deserve this.

[ Parent ]
Agreed on the bad way to go.
I'm watching his concession speech now. He sounds to be taking it in stride, but I still feel that this was an unfair way for him to lose. It sucks that after winning every race before, he lost to the Republican version of Alvin Greene. (Either that, or the Delaware version of Basil Marceaux. But I think that this is the best line to go after O'Donnell for.)

From Nate
In the New York Governor's race, Carl Paladino, the insurgent Republican is off to an early lead in first returns. But there are no returns yet from Nassau County and only 8 percent of precincts are reporting in Suffolk County, where Rick A. Lazio, the former U.S. representative from Long Island, is up 2-1. In Erie County, though, A.P. reports Mr. Paladino has 12,005 votes to Mr. Lazio's 792.

It will tighten, but Paladino's in awfully good shape
Keep in mind, over half of the GOP primary vote will hail from Upstate. Lazio will have to run-up 3-to-1 margins on Long Island to keep-up.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Lazio
Seems to be losing in NYC. It looks like Lazio will not win.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
WI-08
Ribble is from Brown County, which is almost 20% in, whereas McCormick and Roth are from Outagamie County, which has not reported results.  So this is probably Ribble's high water mark.

Castle's speech
 Was okay and he stumbled a bit. He was thanking everybody but the way he talked seemed like your nice next door neighbor or someone you have over for dinner.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


He sounds stunned
Can't blame him.

He was an honest politician, an honest Republican, an even faster dying breed than the former.


[ Parent ]
Contest
Whoever picks the closest time as to when New York passes New Hampshire in percentage of precincts counted wins a free beer from me.

NY's at 4.5, NH at 18.6.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


New Hampshire clearly missed
an opportunity to generate temporary employment:  they clearly need more ballot-counters.

[ Parent ]
From what I understand
They've counted the ballots, the problem is the AP has issues tracking down all the little town clerks to call in the totals since their is no central reporting.

[ Parent ]
Like I said before...
...they have a single eighty year-old woman counting every ballot.  And she doesn't do shit when it's time for her ganja break.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
This picture...OMG
Is it supposed to be a reference to her courageous crusade against the forces of self-pleasure?

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...


LOL


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Best photo ever.
Coons should use that in all his ads.

[ Parent ]
I'm not saying a word
That picture just says some very bad things.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Madison political junkies crash Dane County results
This is super annoying, as I want to see how my precinct reported.  

Trouble for Charlie?
With a trickle of the vote in, Rangel's up 39-22 over Joyce Johnson. Keep an eye on this.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Opposition is too split for him to lose
Johnson is probably only doing that well because she got the NYTimes endorsement. She raised virtually no money.

[ Parent ]
Wow
Paladino getting 93.8% of the vote in Erie County. That isn't a typo.

Now, he is from Buffalo, and Lazio from Long Island, but wow. The upstate/downstate hatred continues (I will not get into the redistribution of taxes from downstate to upstate).

Aside from that, Politico's maps piss me off. They are not Staten Island, Brooklyn, and Manhattan Counties. They're Richmond, Kings, and New York Counties.  

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


That smells wrong
I'm sorry but I can't think of a single candidate in ANY competitive race that has gotten that high a percentage of vote in any county of size.

[ Parent ]
Creigh Deeds would disagree
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg...

Of course, it's unusual for this kind of polarization to happen outside of the South.


[ Parent ]
that's what I was thinking
but it's been up there on the map for a while and Erie County is big enough where 13,000 votes can be 20% of the precincts in a GOP primary

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Niagara County
Paladino at 94.1% in Niagara too. Upstate outreach fail from Lazio?

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Just saw that
Those numbers are indeed real then.

Holy crap.


[ Parent ]
No 75% of the vote for his opponnet would be a fail
They really hate Lazio if he's only getting 5.9% of the vote for some reason.

[ Parent ]
What might be more worrying for Lazio
He's only winning Westchester by 2%.

[ Parent ]
time for a new thread?

Love that O'Donnell photo- that's the 2010 midterm elections in a nutshell.... :D

Oh, and Joe Malone lost in MA-10.  Good riddance to bad slime.  He spoke at my HS graduation...bleh.



Democratic site
I understand this is a Democratic site, but is anyone circulating petitions to run against Rangel as an independent in November?  He's wrong on a number of issues including trade not to mention the obvious ethical lapses.  Are they allowed to run as an independent after losing in the primary?  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2



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