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FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Things Looking Up for Sink, Rubio

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 1:24 AM EDT


Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):

Alex Sink (D): 49
Rick Scott (R): 42
Undecided: 3

Kendrick Meek (D): 24
Marco Rubio (R): 36
Charlie Crist (I): 34
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±3.5%)

We're clearing the decks with a couple Florida polls from late last week, including the Sunshine State portion of those CNN polls that seemed to have mostly good news for Dems, although that may have been largely by virtue of their use of a registered-voter model. Here, they find Alex Sink with a pretty convincing lead over Rick Scott. Sink has to be helped on an ongoing basis by Bill McCollum, who keeps popping up every few days just to say "Nope, still not endorsing," thumb his nose at Rick Scott, and retreat to his sulking place again.

In the Senate race, it's been pretty clear ever since Kendrick Meek's convincing victory over Jeff Greene in the Dem primary that things were going to get rockier for Charlie Crist. The CW seemed to shift almost immediately from "OMG, he's actually threading the needle" to "uh oh, he's gonna lose." This poll's a case in point: Crist isn't going to win with Meek polling in the 20s, as Meek's pulling away too many of the Dems that Crist needs to pull off his feat. Nevertheless, Crist is still forging ahead, out with two new ads, looking resplendently tan on the beach and saying he's drawing a "line in the sand" (presumably with regard to his independence).

Susquehanna for Sunshine State News (9/2-7, likely voters, no trendlines, gubernatorial numbers here):

Alex Sink (D): 44
Rick Scott (R): 42
Undecided: 16

Kendrick Meek (D): 23
Marco Rubio (R): 43
Charlie Crist (I): 29
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±3.1%)

In case you were wondering what these races look like with the switch to a likely voter model, we've got that too, thanks to Pennsylvania-based Republican pollster Susquehanna, here operating on behalf of local GOP-flavored online news outlet Sunshine State News. The shift in the FL-Gov race seems pretty plausible, with Sink up by 2 on the free-spending Scott in a sample that breaks 45 self-identified GOP and 41 Dem. (That's thanks to a decent lead among indies, 47-36... how rare is that, among Dem gubernatorial candidates this year.) But it looks a little ambitious in the Senate race, where this seems to be the biggest lead Rubio's had since Crist pulled his party switch (although certainly reflective of the recent trend).
Crisitunity :: FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Things Looking Up for Sink, Rubio
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FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Things Looking Up for Sink, Rubio | 45 comments
after labor day
any poll of registered voters is bullshit

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
Not true at all
It is what it is.

Registered voter polls are always useful, and usually more useful.

Polling firms decide "likely voters" in an inconsistent way, often as a sledgehammer.  I got polled by Rassmussen a few days ago, and my choices were likely voter or not, so someone 51% likely gets in one category and someone 49% likely goes in another.  Total black and white, when in this case the real difference is nothing like that.

Clearly the best poll has both numbers, registered voters and then likely voters (ideally graded, not a either/or), but registered voters alone offers a more clear signal than likely voters, even if you have to still use your brain to then judge what you consider actual turnout will be.

[ Parent ]
You got polled by Rasmussen??
Do tell, do tell.  Did they ask other questions that never saw the light of day?
[ Parent ]
Please share more on what they asked you on being a "likely" voter......
Did they really just ask if you're "likely" to vote, and that was it?  No questions about your past voting history, or your interest in, or attention to, the upcoming election?

Rasmussen guards his likely voter model very tightly and refuses to disclose anything about it.  He was asked about it at a polling forum once a year or two ago and gave an answer that made me marvel in that he went on and on talking for awhile and never answered the question.

So what exactly was asked to gauge whether you're a "likely" voter?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Pollsters didn't used to go to LV models
until October, and there have been some outlandish results of LVs in September, especially early September.

RV polls still need to be taken seriously.

[ Parent ]
Sink or Crist
If I had to choose between Sink winning or Rubio losing, I'd take a Sink win any day. Rubio holds a single Senate seat for 6 years, maybe longer if he doesn't vote quite as conservatively as he's running. A Sink victory means a half-dozen (or more) House seats for a decade.

Btw, I finally got around to donating to Scott McAdams today. We're almost there, SSPers, and David, James, Crisitunity, the whole crew works so hard for you, won't you support their one big endorsement this cycle? ....Maybe think of it this way: how much will it screw with Sarah Palin's head if her chosen candidate manages to win the primary then lose the general in her very red home state?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Rubio will be the 2016 GOP nominee...
...and take away the hispanic voter edge for dems for a generation.

He's extremely dangerous.

[ Parent ]
Rubio is Cuban
To say that he's got some magic appeal to non-Cuban Hispanics is a bit ridiculous.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Did FL Hispanics make that distinction for Martinez
Both Gov. Bob and Sen. Mel?

I'm guessing not.  

I agree, Rubio has a better shot than anyone of being on the GOP ticket on or before 2016.

[ Parent ]
But Florida Hispanics would presumably be more Cuban than the rest of the nation's
Aren't there whole communities of exiles or something?  Rubio is going to have a hard time finding common ground with the Latino community, and it's hard to believe that speaking Spanish is just going to entice those voters over.  Bush was always soft on immigration comparatively speaking, and he couldn't do more than lose the vote by 20pts.  

Honestly, this sounds somewhat like the argument that blacks would vote for Steele over Cardin when that just wasn't the case.  Rubio would need to do a lot as a Senator to win over those votes, and it hardly seems worth it on his part.  There's also the issue being that, by 2016, the Republicans will have many Governors/former Governors that would have better cred to take on the Dem nominee.

[ Parent ]
The African American Electorate is different from the Hispanic Electorate
AA's are very loyal Democrats and are very suspicious of black Republicans.  Despite every effort by the GOP to alienate Hispanics, the Hispanic electorate is still very swingy and is poised to vote for Republicans in CA, NV, and NM.  A significant number of Hispanics still "want" to be Republican.  That may change by 2016 with he anti-Hispanic demagoguery of the GOP, but it seems like it will take a lot to move them into the solid D column.

Obviously, I'm overgeneralizing... The hispanic community is very diverse and a "one size does not fit all".  Democrats still face an uphill battle with the demographic as a whole.

[ Parent ]
Rubio
Rubio is extremely dangerous. He's not your average tea party candidate either(remember how much he was crushing Meek in the one on one's before Crist went indy?). He is very likable and has great political skills.

I wouldn't be surprised that if he wins he either becomes entrenched for a long time or gets on the ticket as either President or Vice President nominee in 2016. That's why Crist needs to win this race.

[ Parent ]
LordMike, with all due respect, your opinion on Hispanic voters is wrong and indeed absurd......
Hispanic voters reliably vote Democratic by anywhere from 60-40 to 70-30.  That's very one-sided, and easily far more one-sided than white support of Republicans.  Even in 2004, when the national exit poll claimed Bush won 44% of Hispanics over Kerry, a closer examination revealed flaws in the national exit poll, with a more accurate review of the 51 (including D.C.) state exit polls revealing Bush got only 40%.

Hispanic voters don't swing that much, they're part of the Democratic coalition.

Your impressions in your comments here are just nonsensical, ALL data on Hispanic voting behavior and political concerns contradict you.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Uh, I wouldn't say that the Hispanic vote in NM is poised to vote for Susana Martinez
She'll do better than most Republicans among Hispanics, but I sincerely doubt she wins that vote, the Democratic Party in New Mexico relies on the Hispanic vote, and they've been loyal Democrats for a long time.

This is true for both the recent immigrants and the ones who have been here for generations.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Can't speak for Bob Martinez without exit polls....
But I can look at Mel Martinez's performance. According to the Florida exit polls in 2004, Martinez got 60% of the Hispanic to Castor's 39%; this compares to Bush's 56% to Kerry's 44%, but that doesn't tell us anything, they don't differentiate between Cuban Hispanics and non-Cuban Hispanics, so we can't really say that Martinez's performance relative to Bush had anything to do with over-performing among all Hispanics or just Cubans.

And, as a matter of fact, if Cubans made up roughly half of the Hispanic electorate in 2004 (which is likely), Martinez would only have to perform 10% better on the margins than Bush among Cuban voters (which is not that hard to fathom, given that Obama outperformed Kerry's margin among black voters by a full 14 points).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
and somebody on here said
FL-Gov can't veto redistricting legislation. :(
[ Parent ]
They can for the Congressional plan, but not for the state legislative plan.

[ Parent ]
Correct, that thankfully got cleared up on a comment thread here a few weeks ago......
If Sink wins, we get a better Congressional map.  The state legislature is still potentially very screwed, and for that I feel for our Blue brothers and sisters in FL, but for the rest of us, it's not as critical.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Late comment, but I disagree
the Florida state legislature is way too one-sided and unless things start changing it might hurt us in the future. There is no guarantee that we'll win the governor's race in 2018. That's why I'd feel better with a state legislature map that gave the Dems a fighting chance.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
he'd have to give up Senate seat then
And Sink winning sets her up nicely for 2016 as well.  (Just to throw in some further analysis)
[ Parent ]
although he'd have an easier
Time waltzing into the governorship in 2018 with a failed Presdiential candidacy under his belt if that is how it went.

I've got Rubio's life planned out for him pretty much.  And Gov is a much better position for more Pres runs.

[ Parent ]
There is no way a non-white is the GOP
presidential nominee.  
[ Parent ]
A half dozen seats?
Sink winning means an incumbent-protection compromise map. The current delegation is 15R-10D, and the new seat would likely be evenly balanced. The new map could be anything from 15R-11D to 17R-9D because there's no way to shore up Boyd.

Scott winning would mean another round of Republican gerrymandering, but there's not much more that can be done. Maybe they weaken Grayson and Kosmas, but there are a lot of Democratic voters in Central Florida. My guess is they dismantle Kosmas, pack Democratic votes into Grayson's district, and draw themselves a new Republican 26th. The other Democratic incumbents can't be dismantled. So the map would be 17R-9D or 18R-8D depending on what happens to Boyd.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Not looking at the old polls but
this doesnt seem to be entirely a shift from Crist to Meek. There's some Crist --> Rubio here, or Rubio surge.

Also, note the low number of undecideds in the Susq poll. Closing minds or pushing leaners?

Great
Kendrick Meek gets to play spoiler. Oh well, I guess the fringe would prefer Senator Rubio over Senator Crist.

It's unfortunate that the Florida Democrats could not get a somewhat credible candidate to run this cycle.

I would not call either party candidate fringe
I would not call Rubio or Meek fringe candidates.  The support for Rubio by the tea party types has always been mainly anti-Crist.  Rubio if anything is an establishment center-right conservative and Meek is an establishment center-left liberal.  I have had doubts about Crist's candidacy from day one.  Florida Democrats in general are pretty center-left and Meek fits them nicely in an ideological sense.  Crist is an ideological train wreck since his decision to go Indie.  Additionally, Rubio is getting pretty much every Republican regardless of their ideology at this point.  He might be leaking some moderates, but if he is getting 43% of likely voters, he has to be taking a majority of moderate Republicans as well.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
To be perfectly honest with you
It's not 100% clear that we should prefer Crist to Rubio. They are two pretty bad alternatives.  
[ Parent ]
If I lived in Florida
I would vote for Meek. I don't see why anyone can vote for or trust Crist, given what a mercurial, opportunistic slimeball he's shown himself to be. He changes positions at the drop of a hat in order to appeal to whatever segment of the electorate he's trying to win over that day. Mark Kirk is the only candidate running this year that I find more disgusting in that regard.
[ Parent ]
The Susquehanna poll looks insane...
Is Rubio really ahead by 14%? I'm not believing it.

CNN's poll isn't perfect with the registered voter model, but it still seems to make more sense. And besides, who really knows what turnout will look like in November? The supposed "likely voter models" being used by some pollsters may not actually work out like that once the election actually starts happening.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

I said it before and I'll say it again
I don't believe that Meek will stay above 20 unless he's able to show that he has a realistic chance of winning. If Meek doesn't start getting within 10 points of Rubio soon, I suspect that he'll start bleeding some support (though I doubt he ever really gets below 17%-18% either).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

If this poll helps pop the Crist balloon somewhat
then Meek is back in the game. It's an odd calculus. . .
[ Parent ]
It comes down to whether Meek has any money for more TV buys......
I think he's on the air again, but I have no idea on the size of the buy(s).

As long as Meek is able to stay on the air statewide with big enough ad buys, Crist is screwed.

I was wrong in my previous analysis on this one because I figured Meek would go broke trying to beat Greene.  But he seems to have been able to hoard a little cash for post-primary as he went on the air relatively soon afterward.  The question is how much did he have left, and how much has he raised since.

I would love to see Senator Meek sworn in come January, but I'm a realist and a cold calculating liberal who counts votes before all else, and I have to root for Crist to regain his lost ground and pull out a win here.  The only way I'd root for Meek now is if he surges to where he has a plausible path to victory.  But right now he just doesn't.  Either Crist or Meek has to tank into Alan Schlesinger territory for the other to win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Same here
I'd love to be able to support Meek, but Crist is almost certain to caucus with us if he wins, and I suspect he'd end up being slightly to the right of Bill Nelson (not great, but a lot better than Rubio would ever be).

As for money, as of August, Meek's CoH was at $2.6M, Rubio's was at $4.5M, and Crist's was at $8M. In the month before the primary (July 1 - August 4), Rubio raised $1.1M, Crist raised $243K, and Meek raised $233K (Meek's burn rate increased, but that's probably explained by the primary rather than problems with spending on his campaign).

Meek probably needs at least another $2M for him to sustain his current support, and I question whether or not he can do it, he's still behind Crist and Rubio has a double-digit lead over him no matter how it's polled. Still, it is worrying, and it's no longer the slam dunk that it appeared to be.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Would be nice if Crist and Meek
could work out a gentlemen's deal and double team Rubio, but I think Crist's level of influence would invariably benefit him and he doesn't seem like much more than an opportunistic politician.

Meek's got a chance if he can keep peeling off Crist Democrats. Crist probably made a mistake in veering too far left, making it pretty transparent that he only cares about winning - he'll have to make up ground with moderate Republicans/right-leaning independents somehow.  

Sink, obviously, can
and even must win if nothing spectacular happens. Republicans fucked thinghs up by nominating Scott. Meek, as obviously. can't win, but he can give victory to Rubio on a plate... Christ can beat Rubio if Democrats abandon Meek, but that's unlikely scenario
OK, assuming...
the CNN poll of registered voters is correct, and nobody seems to have raised any red flags yet about its findings when it comes to registered voters....

I'm just spitballing here, but given how the enthusiasm gap seems to strongly favor Republicans this cycle, if Meek is getting 24% of registered voters in Florida, I'm assuming that's coming from mostly Democrats, mixed with a few Independents here and there.  If Democrats are really that unenthusiastic about voting, then when switching over to likely voters, does it make any sense that Meek's numbers would stay the same?  You think there would be enough "unlikely" Democratic voters to depress Meek's numbers a bit.

So the Susquehanna and CNN polls don't seem to be very compatible when it comes to their Senate numbers, even with different voter models.  At least one of them is off.

Why I think Rubio in the 40s is realistic...
... I realize that voter preferences don't always line up entirely logically, but do people really think that Rick Scott is going to outpoll Rubio? Even if Scott loses, so long as he's solidly in the 40s - and I expect he will be, with Chiles out of the race - it's pretty hard to imagine Rubio doing worse than that. How many Scott/Crist or Scott/Meek voters do you think there really are?
I honestly can see Scott himself plausibly in the 30s on election night......
I don't think attacking Sink by tying her to Obama and other federal Dems is a good strategy for a Florida Governor's race.  People don't care as much about federal electeds in a Governor's race as in a Senate race, and indeed Republicans have had total control of state government for a long time now.

And Sink's ads are decent, she definitely seems to be running a better campaign than earlier this year.

If Scott can't attack Alex Sink AS Alex Sink, then Sink really could win this thing in a big blowout, as in 62-38.  I know that seems ridiculous to people now, and indeed I was quick post-primary to say here that this thing would be a nailbiter.  But Scott's attacks on Sink have been weak, and I think so far he's really been wasting his money.  Really, Scott is running ads as if this is a Senate race rather than a Governor's race, and that's a big problem for him.  Voters are hurting and want their state government to take action to help the economy on the state government's own terms, without regard to Obama or Congressional Democrats.  Scott is not offering them anything.  And this from a guy who is very disliked by the general electorate and has done nothing to rehabilitate his own public image.

I think Rick Scott hurts Rubio and weighs him down.  Rubio needed McCollum to win the primary.  Now Rubio has to keep distance from his ticket-mate at the top.  And Crist could have a real opening from this if Meek runs out of money.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
But that doesn't get to my basic point: can people really see a lot of Scott/Crist or Scott/Meek voters? It'll be hard to defeat Rubio if he's getting support in the upper-30s to low-40s, unless either Meek or (less likely) Crist completely collapses.  
[ Parent ]
But it wouldn't be that hard to imagine Sink/Crist voters
And it's not totally clear that there will be all that many Sink/Rubio voters. What's going to matter here is whether Meek keeps his support above 20% or not, and if it drops below 20%, Crist's path to victory becomes a lot easier.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
There should be virtually NO Sink/Rubio voters......
Sink's voters will split between Meek and Crist in the Senate race, those two combined cover the entire ideological ground that encompasses Sink.  I imagine a Sink/Rubio voter is a rare thing.  Not 100% nonexistent, but as infrequent as a $2 bill.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Your point is a fair one, but I think we ARE seeing some Scott/Crist voters already......
The polling averages alone suggest that Scott will outperform Rubio, which automatically means some Scott voters are voting for someone other than Rubio for Senate.  I think it's safe to say that the "someone else" is Crist.

Crist has been getting support all along from some voters who can't stomach voting for anyone with a "D" next to their name.  He's consistently getting 20/25% of Republicans, and that's more than Sink likely will get, although if she gets the blowout I can see happening if Scott doesn't adjust his campaign messaging, then she could get the same.

So yes there already are a non-trivial share of Scott/Crist voters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'm hoping for something like
a last-minute endorsement of Crist from Meek who drops out, or something like that.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Not last minute, but a week or two before the election so it can set in for voters
This is probably the best way the Senate seat doesn't go to Rubio, so there has to be some kind of understanding here.  Meek's only path to victory is if Crist takes enough moderate votes and Republicans that Meek only has to consolidate Democrats.  That's not realistically going to happen, but I would still expect Florida Democrats themselves to be smart enough to strategically vote if it turns out that Meek isn't going to surpass Crist, much less Rubio.
[ Parent ]
Taken with the two Rasmussen/Fox polls
Sink is clearly ahead head now and will likely stay there as long as Scott focuses on the president. Dum, dumb move.
FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Things Looking Up for Sink, Rubio | 45 comments

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