NY-19: Hall Under 50, and Trailing Chief Challenger

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (9/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

John Hall (D-inc): 42

Nan Hayworth (R): 44

Undecided: 14

John Hall (D-inc): 42

Neil DiCarlo (R): 39

Undecided: 19

(MoE: 4%)

We decided to test this race because we thought it might serve as a helpful bellwether. Dem Rep. John Hall is a sophomore, first elected in 2006 to a district that had long been GOP-held. He sits in a suburban swing district (45% Kerry, 51% Obama) and has a progressive voting record. He’s drawn a strong opponent in Nan Hayworth, a Republican with a moderate enough record that could have earned her a serious teabagging, but which she was nonetheless able to avoid. Hayworth has also been a good fundraiser – she’s given her campaign half-a-million bucks, but she’s also raised more than $700K from individuals. Overall, she’s narrowly edged Hall, whose fundraising has proceeded at just 62% of his 2008 pace (to date).

In other words, this contest resembles many others in a number of ways, though in does stand out in certain respects (Hayworth’s relative sanity chief among them). And if this race is indeed representative, then it’s not looking pretty out there. Yes, on its face, the poll shows things more-or-less tied up, but 42% is not where you want to be if you’re an incumbent – especially when your opponent is unknown to 50% of the electorate. Among those who do know her, Hayworth sports a pretty decent 29-21 favorability rating, while Hall is struggling at a weak 39-43. In other words, Hayworth has room to grow, while Hall seems pretty firmly rooted at 42%. (That’s why we included Neil DiCarlo, an unknown and generally disliked Some Dude who will likely be turned into paste in today’s primary. Hall does no better against him than against Hayworth.)

There’s a broader picture here, too. Pollster Tom Jensen elaborates:

[I]ntensity isn’t really the issue. We’re finding an electorate in NY-19 that supported Barack Obama by a point, not much of a drop from his 3 point win there. … The problem in NY-19 is that Obama voters have soured on him to a much greater extent than they have nationally. Only 75% of his supporters still approve of the job he’s doing and his loss of support is rubbing off on Hall. With the Obama voters who now disapprove of or are ambivalent toward him Nan Hayworth has a 56-28 lead. Nationally our last poll still found 86% of Obama voters approving of him so this is an unusually disenchanted district.

If we’re lucky, then this might be another way in which New York’s 19th CD differs from others – namely, the fact that Obama is doing 10 points worse here among his own voters than he is nationally. Still, while things look tough for Hall right now, he does have some things going for him. For one, the Democrats at the top of the ballot in NY look set to dominate. For another, he’ll also have help from the DCCC (which still, thankfully, has more cash than the NRCC) – though advertising dollars won’t go as far on NYC’s super-expensive TV stations. And he may yet turn in a strong fundraising quarter.

Obviously, this is just one survey, but be aware that Hall trailed in his own internal polling in 2006 all the way until the election. Those polls nonetheless portended trouble for incumbent Sue Kelly, whom Hall knocked off by a 51-49 margin. If this poll is accurate, then, John Hall also has a very tough row to hoe – and so, it would seem, do Dems in similar districts around the country.

57 thoughts on “NY-19: Hall Under 50, and Trailing Chief Challenger”

  1. This was a dumb district to pick as a bell-weather right now. The GOP primary is in full-swing, so they are getting more press coverage and their base is more fired up. If you wanted a bell-weather district to poll, you should have picked one where the general election actually started or polled this one in 2-3 weeks.

    All you are doing with this poll is helping the “Democrats are doomed” narrative. Not sure why a progressive website is anxious to pile-on that narrative.  

  2. I moved NY-19 into the red column about a month ago.  R+3 districts in an environment like this, for incumbents that vote 100% democratic for the most part, districts like these are going to be very tough holds.

  3. between the strength at the top of the ticket and DCCC resources, I think Hall can pull this out.  He’s the type of congressman we need more of.

  4. is that neither party seems to be acting like this race is top tier.  Wasn’t on the NRCC’s initial targeted advertising list of about 40 districts, nor was it on the DCCC’s list of about 60 districts.

    I’m trusting public polling less and less and trying to focus on how campaigns and parties are behaving, including financial investment, leaked internals, and the reactions thereto.  Those kinds of factors are making a lot more sense to me right now than public polling.

  5. The Westchester County Ex race in 2009 was a real shocker. Most people thought Spano was a lock for re-election and he lost pretty handily.

    Turnout was a big factor in the 2009 elections. Dems stayed home while the GOP vote came out in force.

    The blowouts at the top of the ticket this year will work against Dems when it comes to turnout in this years NYS  elections.

    The angry Tea Party will show up come hell or high water but the new and younger Obama voters of 2008 might sit out 2010 figuring Gov race is a done deal.

    Also keep in mind if voters in NY are “angry” over pocketbook issues where they are angry is in the suburbs like Westchester.

    Hayworth is a good non threating female candidate running on pocket book issues.

    If there is a swing against Dems and Obama it is in places like NY-19 where it is occuring.

    I can see Hall losing this while other so called endanger upstate NY Dems manage to hang on somehow.

  6. Big fan of Congressman Hall. It looks like I’m going to have to open up the check book. I think he’ll pull this out in the end, but it sucks to have this be so close.

  7. is how the 14% undecided will split.

    8% of Democrats are undecided, but of those that have decided, 79% go for Hall and 13% go for Hayworth.  (Democrats make up 37% of demographics of the sample.

    16% of Republicans are undecided, but of those that have decided, 14% go for Hall and 70% for Hayworth. (Republicans make up 38% of the sample.)

    17% of independents/other are undecided, but of those that have decided, 30% go for Hall and 53% for Hayworth. (Independents/other make up 25% of the sample.)

    With this info, there must be some way to tell how the overall 14% undecided will split, especially if we assume the undecideds will break down in similar ways as their partisan identification has done so far in the poll.  

  8. Democrats in the Governor’s race and the Senate races are going to perform very well and that means a lot of Democrats are going to be drawn out to the polls. That will be Hall’s security here, it may or may not be enough, though.

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