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Women in Congress 2010

by: MassGOP

Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 7:44 PM EDT


There are currently 75 women serving in the House, an all-time high but still less than 18% of the chamber as a whole. A similar percentage (17 of 100) of Senators are women. The female percentages have gradually crept up over the past 50 years, but with the Republican lean of this cycle, I wondered if we would see the number of women in Congress actually decrease in 2010, given that women are more likely to be Democrats. The State of the Female Lawmaker, below the jump.
MassGOP :: Women in Congress 2010
HOUSE INCUMBENT WOMEN

Safe Female (by seniority)

Marcy Kaptur, OH-09
Louise Slaughter, NY-28
Nancy Pelosi, CA-08
Nita Lowey, NY-18
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, FL-18
Rosa DeLauro, CT-03
Maxine Waters, CA-35
Corrine Brown, FL-03
Anna Eshoo, CA-14
Eddie Bernice Johnson, TX-30
Lucille Roybal-Allard, CA-34
Nydia Velazquez, NY-12
Lynn Woolsey, CA-06
Sheila Jackson Lee, TX-18
Zoe Lofgren, CA-16
Sue Myrick, NC-09
Jo Ann Emerson, MO-08
Diana DeGette, CO-01
Kay Granger, TX-12
Carolyn McCarthy, NY-04
Lois Capps, CA-23
Barbara Lee, CA-09
Tammy Badwin, WI-02
Shelley Berkley, NV-01
Judy Biggert, IL-13
Grace Napolitano, CA-38
Jan Schakowsky, IL-09
Shelley Moore Capito, WV-02
Jane Harman, CA-36
Susan Davis, CA-53
Betty McCollum, MN-05
Marsha Blackburn, TN-07
Candice Miller, MI-10
Linda Sanchez, CA-39
Melissa Bean, IL-08
Virginia Foxx, NC-05
Cathy McMorris Rodgers, WA-05
Gwen Moore, WI-04
Allyson Schwartz, PA-13
Debbie Wasserman Shultz, FL-20
Doris Matsui, CA-05
Jean Schmidt, OH-02
Kathy Castor, FL-11
Yvette Clarke, NY-11
Mazie Hirono, HI-02
Laura Richardson, CA-37
Jackie Spier, CA-12
Donna Edwards, MD-04
Marcia Fudge, OH-11
Lynn Jenkins, KS-02
Cynthia Lummis, WY-AL
Judy Chu, CA-32

Otherwise Safe Female

CA-33--The retiring Diane Watson will be replaced by Karen Bass.
FL-24--Rep. Suzanne Kosmas has a female challenger in GOPer Sandy Adams
MN-06--Likewise, Michele Bachmann's challenger is a woman, Tarryl Clark
SD-AL--Ditto for Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Kristi Noem.
NY-14--Carolyn Maloney faces only a long-shot primary challenge, but it's from a woman.

Likely/Leans Female Holds

Loretta Sanchez, CA-47
Mary Bono Mack, CA-45
Gabrielle Giffords, AZ-08
Betty Sutton, OH-13
Niki Tsongas, MA-05
Chellie Pingree, ME-01

Female Incumbents In Tossups/ Lean Male Takeover

Carol Shea-Porter, NH-01
Kathy Dahlkemper, PA-03
Debbie Halverson, IL-11
Mary Jo Kilroy, OH-15
Ann Kilpatrick, AZ-01
Betsy Markey, CO-04
Dina Titus, NV-03

Safe Male Takeover

Ginny Brown-Waite, FL-05
Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, MI-13
Mary Fallin, OK-05

HOUSE PICKUP OPPORTUNITIES

Safe Female Pickups

Terri Sewell, AL-07 (Artur Davis)
Diane Black, TN-06 (Bart Gordon)
Frederica Wilson, FL-17 (Kendrick Meek)

Lean/Likely Female Pickups

Jaime Herrera, WA-03 (vs. Denny Heck for the seat of Brian Baird)
Colleen Hanabusa, HI-01 (vs. Charles Djou)

Tossups
Vicky Hartzler, MO-04 (vs. Ike Skelton)
Martha Roby, AL-02 (vs. Bobby Bright)
Julie Lassa, WI-07 (vs. Sean Duffy for the seat of Dave Obey)
Jackie Walorski, IN-02 (vs. Joe Donnelly)
Nan Hayworth, NY-19 (vs. John Hall)

Lean/Likely Male Holds
Annie Kuster, NH-02 (vs. Charlie Bass for the seat of Paul Hodes)
Ann-Marie Buerkle, NY-25 (vs. Dan Maffei)
Lori Edwards, FL-12 (vs. Dennis Ross for the seat of Adam Putnam)
Beth Anne Rankin, AR-04 (vs. Mike Ross)
Joyce Elliott, AR-02 (vs. Tim Griffin for the seat of Vic Snyder)
Paula Brooks, OH-12 (vs. Pat Tibieri)
Mariannette Miller-Meeks, IA-02 (vs. Dave Loebsack)
Stephene Moore, KS-03 (vs. Kevin Yoder for the seat of her husband, Dennis Moore)
Suzan DelBene, WA-08 (vs. Dave Reichert)

SENATE INCUMBENT WOMEN

Safe Female Holds
Barbara Mikulski, MD
Kirsten Gillibrand, NY

Otherwise Safe Female Seats
Barbara Boxer, CA (vs. Carly Fiorina)

Leans Female Hold
Patty Murray, WA

Likely Male Takeover
Blanche Lincoln, AR
Lisa Murkowski, AK (Miller or McAdams, unless she wins as a write-in)

SENATE PICKUP OPPORTUNITIES

Leans Female Takeover

Kelly Ayotte, NH (vs. Paul Hodes for the seat of Judd Gregg)

Leans Male Hold

Sharron Angle, NV (vs. Harry Reid)
Robin Carnahan, MO (vs. Roy Blunt for the seat of Kit Bond)
Elaine Marshall, NC (vs. Richard Burr)
Linda McMahon, CT (vs. Richard Blumenthal for the seat of Chris Dodd)

Likely/Safe Male Hold
Christine O'Donnell, DE (vs. Mike Castle, then Chris Coons)
Roxanne Conlin, IA (vs. Chuck Grassley)

CONCLUSIONS

In the House, women will be lucky to break even. The certain losses of Kilpatrick, Watson, Brown-Waite, and Fallin will be made up for by the certain additions of Wilson, Bass, Black, and Sewell. However, there are 7 female incumbents in serious danger of losing to men and 6 more who cannot be considered safe at this point. The likely addition of Hanabusa, and somewhat likely addition of Herrera, will help somewhat, but if all or most of the endangered women lose it will be up to the likes of Lassa, Hayworth, et al to keep the number of women at 75.

In the Senate, the picture is similarly discouraging. There are two clear losses on the horizon, and only race in which women are favored to pick up a seat (NH, if Ayotte wins her primary.) If Republicans do even better than expected, it will help women in the Senate, as the additions of Angle and McMahon, plus Ayotte, would mean a net change of +1 woman.

Fun facts: Three of the four "Congresswidows" (women who succeeded their deceased husbands in the House) are from California (the fourth is from MO, home of the most recent Senate Widow,) and three women are running underdog Senate campaigns against men with the initials RB.  
Poll
Is the gender imbalance in Congress undemocratic?
Yes, women should control about half of all seats
No, one can represent both genders in Congress

Results

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Women in Congress 2010 | 66 comments
I would put MO-4 and IN-2 as Lean D/male hold
and Ayotte as Lean Female takeover, but the rest of this looks good.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
Yeah
being as neutral as I can I would rank IN-02 at Lean D.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
agree
...assuming that Ayotte wins the primary.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Kind of amazing
that California sends 19 women to Congress.

In any case, if every single member of Congress were to retire and a whole new slate voted in, I'd guess the number of women would double at least.  Incumbency, and the low percentage of retirements, is preventing a more rapid shift.  Women may very well see their numbers break even this year, but I expect to see the number continue to grow in subsequent elections.

Los Angeles is particulary helpful in that regard
Of the 12 districts that comprise the city and its inner ring of suburbs in LA County, 8 are held by women, with a 9th,  Loretta Sanchez, a little further outside the city in Orange County.


20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Also
 Lois Capps represents the 23rd which goes into Oxnard and Ventura

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
While Lois Capps is counted as one of the "Congresswidows"
    her husband Walter Capps held the seat for less than one full term before passing away. Mrs. Capps has been in office for over a decade so many folks who don't follow things closely have no memory of Walter Capps. Doris Matsui took over her husband Bob's seat (in the Sacramento area) and Mary Bono took the seat of her popstar/bad skier husband. She has since remarried twice, now to a FL member of the House, so it's a bit hard to think of her as Sonny's widow anymore.

   Nice diary! I believe we should have a Congress that reflects the population of the country, but the "more women" I want to see are more like Karen Bass or Colleen Hanabusa and not like Christine O'Donnell or Sharrron Angle.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
As a widower
"married again for the very first time"

I can definitely and definitively say,

once a widow(er), always a widow(er).

for more, see http://www.dailykos.com/story/...  

[ Parent ]
I read your diary
  and was moved by it. I wish you all the best in your new life.

  I was thinking about the Congresswidows in terms of politics, not their personal lives. Bob Matsui was a longtime Representative and in the party leadership so Doris Matsui is maybe seen more as his widow. Walter Capps was a great guy who could have had a fine career in the House had he lived, but because he had only about a year in Congress he didn't make much of an impact. He was a professor of religious studies at UC Santa Barbara before winning the House seat on his second try in 1996. Lois Capps won a special election in early 1998 and has been in the House ever since.

  Mary Bono Mack is sort of a special case; because she was so young when Sonny died it is not surprising that she has remarried. Her current husband is a House member from Florida so she now is Mrs. Mack as much as the former Mrs. Bono.

  The best CA Congresswidow was the one that didn't get elected, Marta Macias Brown. Her husband was Rep. George Brown, a progressive longterm member from the Inland Empire who died around the same time as Walter Capps. She lost the special election to replace him to Rep. Joe Baca, who is somewhat of a Blue Dog (and also a sexist prick--he's the one that allegedly called Loretta Sanchez a slut.) Mrs. Brown would have been a much better Representative in my opinion.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
It is interesting
in that all the districts completely within L.A. County are held by minority women and Jewish whites.

27 - Sherman (Jewish)
28 - Berman (Jewish)
29 - Schiff (Jewish)
30 - Waxman (Jewish)
31 - Becerra (Hispanic)
32 - Chu (Asian)
33 - Watson (black); soon to be Bass (black)
34 - Roybal-Allard (Hispanic)
35 - Waters (black)
36 - Harman (Jewish)
37 - Richardson (half-black)
38 - Napolitano (Hispanic)
39 - Linda Sanchez (Hispanic)

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
It's the vast Jewish conspiracy!
It's also responsible for the Senate (Jews hold both Wisconsin seats, both California seats, a Minnesota Seat (that seat has been held by a Jew for at least 30 years, if you don't include Dean Barkley), a Vermont Seat, a Connecticut seat (unfortunately...), a New York seat, a New Jersey seat, an Oregon seat, a Michigan seat, a Maryland seat, and a Pennsylvania seat)

We're everywhere, and if you're not careful, we'll be representing you (laughs manically).

Anyways... :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
CA, Jews
The only Republican in CA House circles is Mary Bono Mack.  I figure she is likely to retire soon or be defeated with her husband having better prospects in FL.

Eric Cantor, IIRC is now the only Jewish Republican.  Arlen Specter was but switched and was defeated.Maine has more women in Congress than men with both Senators and one of two House members.  Iowa and Mississippi are the only states that have never had a woman Governor, US Senator or US House member.  Lots of tries in Iowa but no successes.

[ Parent ]
true
about cantor. there was also norm coleman, and maybe another representative.  linda lingle is the only GOP Jewish governor, there's also jack markell, and that might be it.  

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Ed Rendell


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Except....
....unless Xavier Becerra had a sex change, he's still probably the sexiest MAN in the CA delegation...other than that, that is sort of strange that LA's all Jews and minority ladies.

Btw, I love this diary. Very interesting and very well done.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Becerra???

[ Parent ]
Jinx!
nt

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Great minds think alike!

[ Parent ]
Oops, my bad!


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Interesting
It's surprising that women make up such a small percentage.

Anyway, good rankings, except for four in the House:

Lean/Likely Male Hold to Tossup:

FL-12: Edwards is a sleeper candidate. Sure, it's a bad year for Democrats, but she might surprise a lot of people. She's Blue Dog endorsed, so that helps her there too.

Tossup to Lean/Likely Male Hold:

MO-04: I don't buy Skelton's seat being a tossup.

AL-02: I've "put most of my eggs in this basket" on this site. Bright's lead in the polls, he's to the right of Roby, and they both served on the City Council when he was Mayor and she was a Councilwoman, so she does not have the advantage some claim in that regards. Bright grew up in the deep red Wiregrass portion, which will help him out.

IN-02: Isn't this "Wacky Jacky" or something? I thought I saw that nickname mentioned on this site, though I don't remember why.

I'm with you, RuralDem
I don't buy a lot of the calls, but I do like the overall post and info an awful lot.

But I agree with you, RuralDem, on your individual calls...
Edwards is a sleeper candidate.
Skelton is in full battle mode and people are remembering why they like him. It's Lean at worst.
Bright is going blow the roof off AL-02 (maybe winning by 4 points this time!) and surprise everybody.
Wacky Jacky is like the House version of Sharron Angle, ask hoosierdem, she's going nowhere against the centrist Donnelly.

Oh, and let's not forget Robin Carnahan, who is going to wipe the floor with Blunt when she overperforms in the counties near her family farm. Maybe someone can ask Roy Blunt what he grows in his Washington condo....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I hope you're right about Carnahan
I expected her to wipe the floor, but that hasn't been evident. At best, she may get a squeaker of a win, and that would be quite good enough and may not happen. Right now, I'd put the odds at 60/40, at best, against her winning.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Haha, the rankings were more off the top of my head than anything else
I consider Ross a favorite in FL-12 just because of the cycle, PVI, and cash advantage. A sleeper nonetheless, but Lean R for now.

No one else (at least no one credible) has MO-04 at tossup, so that's all me. I think it's a sleeper because of Skelton's age, ties to Democratic House leadership, and this being the type of district that I think will really be hostile to incumbent Democrats this year. But that one could easily be at Leans D.

I actually wasn't aware of any craziness on the part of Walorski in IN-02 (thought she was Wacky Jackie just because it rhymed) so this might merit a change. I had it at tossup because at least one of the national committees has already gone up with ads here, which means they think it's one of the more competitive races in the country.

And thank you very much for the kind words! This one was fun to research.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Carnahan's not going to wipe the floor with
anyone, not even with Blunt. She's losing, and it looks right now like it won't even be close.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
While all the facts
you have given about AL-2 may be true, the fundamental underlying factor this year is that Roby is the Republican in a Republican district in a Republican year against a freshman Democrat.  That alone merits a tossup for this race.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
No
Simply saying that a Republican running in a Republican district is enough to indicate a toss-up in a Southern district is insane and shows a lack of understanding of Southern politics and the role numerous factors play.

This is a Southern seat. There are many more factors at play than PVI. Geography is a major factor in an area like this. Bright's more conservative than Roby, that's another major factor.

[ Parent ]
As RuralDem
said, you obviously don't understand a southern election if you are basing it solely off PVI.

I wouldn't be surprised to see all southern incumbents (this is minus Florida) win reelection. I would worry about Childers (running for a second full term) and Spratt (who is not at the top of his game) this cycle. Now, of course, 100% of these seats are probably Republican when the Dem retires, as you saw in AR-01 and AR-02, but incumbents should be fine.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
It is not just PVI
It is the nature of this district.  Both conservative Dem districts and GOP districts have high R PVIs.  But conservative Dem incumbents in the former will be ok, but those in the latter will have trouble.

AL-2 is not a conservative Dem district.  It is a GOP one.  The Montgomery suburbs/exurbs and the Dothan area vote for Republicans.  The rural areas may prefer conservative Dems, but there is enough GOP territory here that would give Roby a good chance.  

If Bright were a several term incumbent, that would count.  But as a one-term incumbent who barely won in 2008 in large part due to historic black turnout, this race is a tossup.  And I would guess that Roby will win.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Huh?
I'm not sure where you're getting some of this stuff from, but the rural portion of AL-02 is less likely to support a Conservative Democrat than Montgomery. The Wiregrass is the deep red part of AL-02. Bright grew up there though and the voters are very territorial.

Roby's from Montgomery and served on the City Council, but Bright has ties there too having served as Mayor.

My point is, Bright has ties to the rural Wiregrass region and also Montgomery.

That, combined with his voting record, combined with his ability to run to the right of Roby, should be enough to give him the victory.

I can understand a toss-up, but saying it Leans Republican is simply far fetched.

[ Parent ]
I don't
want to just continue to restate RuralDem, but Bright has connections to basically all parts of the district. I voted for him in 2008.  He is extremely popular in the Wiregrass Region.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I'm sure he does
but remember that despite sky high black turnout unlikely to be repeated, he barely won.  

Roby has a real chance to unseat Bright if she wins the Montgomery suburbs (Autagua and Elmore counties) and the Dothan area with decent majorities.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
But
There are also many voters who probably never voted for a Democrat for Congress, especially in the Wiregrass who might now feel comfortable voting for "one of their own".

Bright's an incumbent now too and it's hard to deny the importance of being the incumbent. More and more longtime Republican voters could easily feel comfortable voting for Bright.

I just don't buy the black turnout argument in this district.

[ Parent ]
What don't you buy about it
Blacks made up 28% of the district, voted in large numbers in 2008, and almost unanimously voted for Bright.  Get that black turnout down even a little and we'd be talking about Jay Love being safe for reelection.

I expect black turnout to be substantially lower in 2010 in Alabama.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Well
Again, in 2010 there are a different set of circumstances. AL-02 is now Democratic after 4 decades of Republican dominance. Many voters have never voted Democratic, and now with having Bright in there, they might feel comfortable voting for a Democrat.

Also, Bright's now the incumbent. Voters in AL-02 see he's not a liberal, but instead, he's more conservative than his Republican challenger.

Black turnout will be lower, but there are other factors that more than make up for it.

[ Parent ]
How is Bright more conservative than Roby?
I looked at Roby's page of issues and didn't find one issue where she wasn't a strong conservative.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Immigration
I'm not too familiar with what all occurred on the Montgomery City Council, but Roby has been attacked (I believe by one of her Primary opponents) as being soft on immigration, and there has been speculation that Bright could run to her right on the issue.

She also touts how her district was the most diverse, which makes me think there are likely votes somewhere that make her look moderate.

[ Parent ]
Voting or one of their own, as you eloquently put it...
trumps party. Having personal connections in this district is a key to being reelected. It's the same reason that Gene Taylor was reelected over and over.

And some of the elderly in this district might have voted for George Grant, who was a Democrat, who held this seat until 1964.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Simply put...
Bright's support probably does not lie in the black community. It lies in getting a good portion of the white vote, which will be very easy for him to do. He is extremely popular in Wiregrass.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
He might be
but I also think this is more of a straight ticket year, especially with Bentley likely to crush Sparks.  So Bright might end up like Lincoln Chafee, that is many Repubs who like Bright vote against him anyway.  And without massive black turnout, Roby wins.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Doubtful
I actually think Sparks will do decent, though he's certainly the underdog. Sparks was supported strongly by blacks in Alabama, over Davis, so even if he's polling terrible, it's logical to assume there will be decent black turnout due to the House/Senate/Statewide elections.

Which, again, I think basing Bright's ability to win or lose on black turnout is a huge mistake.

The only thing the GOP can throw at him is that he voted for Pelosi. That's it, nothing else.

Using that tactic only works so much.

[ Parent ]
Bright voted for the "fair pay" legislation
that all but 3 Repubs opposed in the House.  I'm sure that there are other votes where Bright voted with the Democrats.  

And voting for Pelosi is a big thing when control of the House is at stake.  (Gene Taylor to his credit doesn't vote for her.)  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Gene Taylor
did in 2009.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Do not
be surprised when the likes of Minnick, Bright, and Ross are in the House in November, and those Democrats sitting in D+1 to R+6 districts are retired.

It sucks a lot, but if you voted for HCR and you were in a tossup district, you have a good chance to lose. They also stand the chance of the base not showing up as high as it did in 2008 for Obama. Minnick and Bright are used to winning elections without Democrats.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Just to let you know
You are aiming this comment at the wrong person.  I am a Republican, so voting against HCR is a plus for me.

I agree that Minnick and Ross will be back, the former because of a very weak and nutty GOP opponent.  But Bright faces a much tougher road because Roby is a good fit for that district, and the fact she is a Republican helps even more.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Just to let you know
You are aiming this comment at the wrong person.  I am a Republican, so voting against HCR is a plus for me.

I agree that Minnick and Ross will be back, the former because of a very weak and nutty GOP opponent.  But Bright faces a much tougher road because Roby is a good fit for that district, and the fact she is a Republican helps even more.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
I am very pro-HCR...
but there's no hiding the fact that a pro-HCR vote in an R+5 district is going to hurt this cycle.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Sure
Of course there were times when Bright voted with the Democrats.

However, if you're talking about the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009,

http://clerk.house.gov/evs/200...

For some reason Wikipedia leaves out Boren and Bright on the "Nay" list.

Also, Taylor voted for Pelosi since they've been in the majority.

[ Parent ]
Bright's vote on Ledbetter noted
I think we should have went hard negative against Taylor then in his district.  I'm sure that there are many good GOP candidates in the district who could give him a run. I was under the assumption that Taylor voted for Murtha, not Pelosi.

What I don't appreciate is Bright's double-dealing on this matter.  He votes for her in Washington and then states that "she might get sick and die" in front of a crowd in Alabama.  I would consider such language crass and inappropriate coming from a Repub, but it is particularly bogus when coming from someone like Bright.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Bentley is going to win by 20
This is one of the few states in the South that we nominated a candidate without serious flaws.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Um
Y'all nominated a candidate that explicitly ran against the establishment.

Bentley is certainly the favorite, but don't think James and Byrne's supporters are automatically going to fall in line.

Also, Sparks has been elected statewide. Don't count him out of this.

[ Parent ]
Bentley and Haslam
were the only two decent nominees we have in the South.  The rest of our nominees are either ethically challenged (Deal, Scott) or crazy/pander by acting crazy (Scott, Haley, Perry).  

I would expect Byrne supporters (I would have been one) to fall in line.  James and Moore supporters, who knows, but they aren't going to vote Sparks.  And I'm willing to bet that many Davis supporters will defect to Bentley.  Bentley reminds me of Rick Snyder in Michigan with his broad support.

Sparks is a liberal in Alabama.  He's far too left for the state. My prediction is Bentley 62 Sparks 36.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Huh
Sparks is a liberal?

He's already been elected statewide and was one of the top vote getters.

Even though it's a down-ballot race, if he was the liberal you portray him to be, he wouldn't have done nearly as well as he did.

[ Parent ]
Not a liberal eh?
I wonder what he was doing over here pandering to these guys:

http://www.dailykos.com/user/u...

Ideology generally matters less for lower ballot races.  Sparks can sell himself as 100% Alabama for Ag Commish, but when he has to start taking real positions, his true positions (for Obamacare, etc.) come out.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
And occasionally liberals do get elected statewide
in conservative states.  You may disagree, but I considered Don Siegleman an Alabama liberal as well.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Ahh ok
If posting on a partisan blog dictates whether one is liberal or conservative, then considering you and I are posting on SSP, what does that make us?

I'm certainly not a liberal, and neither are you.

Brian Schweitzer is close with the "Netroots", but I do not consider him a liberal.

Sparks is a populist if anything, and that's the kind of Democrat that gets elected in Alabama.

[ Parent ]
Completely Agree.
I have a different question for RuralDem, what about South Georgia, in particular GA-02? A populist?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
GA-02
TheGradyDem,

GA-02 is a traditional Southern Democratic seat. There are still quite a few counties who have never been represented by a Republican in Congress. Also, it's like you mentioned in Alabama, most of, it not all, of the local officer holders in partisan races are Democrats.

GA-02 is a populist district. Very conservative on social issues, very pro-military, but fiscally populist, especially in areas like public education, rural healthcare, etc.

The GOP is also very, very unorganized in this district. That's not to say that Democrats are organized well (they're not), but then again, there's never been a reason to have a strong Democratic Party in most of these counties.

We're slowly starting to see the GOP make gains, but it's on a top-down level.

[ Parent ]
We are not candidates for office
coming here asking for support like Ron Sparks was on dKos. Also SSP is hardly the liberal and partisan atmosphere that dKos is.

I'm not even saying he would be a liberal nationally (I'm not sure he would be), but for Alabama, he is quite liberal.  I would guess that at least 85-90% of Alabama whites would be to the right of Sparks.

Also Sparks has taken several liberal stances like supporting Obamacare and attacking Artur Davis for opposing it.    

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Sparks
can campaign however he wants. He's not going to win, or come close. What he does is in no way tied to Bright, Raby, or any other local Democratic office.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I'll tell you
one thing though and I agree with you ... voting pro-HCR in Alabama (with the exception of the 7th) is not a good way to campaign. You need to be pro-HCR, and anti-2009 Healthcare Reform to win.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I disagree
Sparks won't win, and can't win. He maybe have been elected statewide, but he has no personal popularity among conservative Democrats. He hasn't run a wonderful campaign either.

And also, Sparks campaign, is in no way tied to Brights, or Steve Raby.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Sparks might have been competitive
against James or Moore.  But he had little chance against Byrne, and Bentley is even stronger than Byrne.  He reminds me of Rick Snyder in Michigan, someone respected by all political factions.

I predict that Bentley will win a pretty substantial chunk of the black vote as well.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
I'm actually interested in the results for the poll.
You don't get many polls on forums in which opinion doesn't go more than 60% one way.

I wonder what the national result of that question would be - and how it would break down between men and women.

http://mypolitikal.com/

Jane Harman
Jane Harman shouldn't be that high up on your seniority list. She was elected in 1992, left the House to run in the primary for Governor of California in 1998, and then returned to Congress in 2000. In your list it's as if she never left.
Ah, thank you
The list is in order of what Wikipedia gave me, and they listed it by the date they entered. Fixed!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
God, I wish Janice Hahn had won in '98
She didn't have the greatest profile for the district, though.  Being from San Pedro, she was too easily associated with the ILWU, which can inspire raised eyebrows even from members of other unions.  We really needed Debra Bowen... but I'll forgive her if I'm "calling her Senator" in 2013.
[ Parent ]
Women in Congress 2010 | 66 comments

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