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KY-06, NM-02, OR-05, PA-12: Dems Lead in DCCC Polls

by: James L.

Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 6:43 PM EDT


The D-trip is out with four new internal polls showing Democratic incumbents in the lead.

KY-06: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 52
Andy Barr (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.9%)

NM-02: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):

Harry Teague (D-inc): 51
Steve Pearce (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)

OR-05: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):

Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 42
Scott Bruun (R): 29
(MoE: ±4.9%)

PA-12: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):

Mark Critz (D-inc): 48
Tim Burns (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)
James L. :: KY-06, NM-02, OR-05, PA-12: Dems Lead in DCCC Polls
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KY-06, NM-02, OR-05, PA-12: Dems Lead in DCCC Polls | 110 comments
Teague
People really should have put more faith in that independent poll that had him ahead. This is happening quite a bit now, people assumed to be dead aren't dead at all.
I've not had NM-02 at anything other than toss up
But I really don't know what to make of this one. Is Pearce just that unpopular that he can't even get his own job back, or what?

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
There was insightful analysis last year on this race that said...
...Teague would be competitive and would NOT be hurt by his cap-and-trade vote, and the CW to the contrary was wrong.  This was on a nonpartisan NM politics blog, and the reasoning was that the peculiar local voting behavior of the district was such that the swing area of the district doesn't care about cap-and-trade, it's an issue only for the oil-dependent part of the district that's already heavily Republican and Teague didn't have enough support there in 2008 to worry about bleeding there.  This analysis said that the health care bills were bigger votes, and Teague would have to vote "no" on those or he'd be DOA.  Sure enough, Teague voted no on both bills.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
That seems to be what's happening
I don't think Teague is out of the woods yet, but he's looking better and better in an almost must-win race for the Republicans if they want to take the House.

[ Parent ]
Teague's vote
I don't remember where I heard this, but the reason I heard that Teague voted for cap-and-trade is that Dona Ana county has a lot of environmentalists and activists in the county and that was a vote he had to make in order to keep them excited for the election.  He understood the reservations the oilmen would have, and he tried to assuade them with his amendment, but in the end he always had to vote for cap-and-trade due to the votes in the vote rich county of Dona Ana.
[ Parent ]
Las Cruces, in Dona Ana County, is a major college town
With Socorro it's really the only area of Democratic strength in the district.

Getting out the vote in those areas is important, but he still has to keep himself from getting blown out in southeastern NM (Lea, Eddy, and Chaves counties; where the towns of Hobbs, Carlsbad, and Roswell are, will probably produce as many votes as Dona Ana, and are typically a lot more Republican than Dona Ana is Democratic).

This is why Teague voted yes on Cap and Trade but no on HCR (though he did vote with the Democrats on the procedural votes, which I think indicates if he was needed he would've voted aye on it). Whatever happens, it's going to be a close one.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Teague's vote on cap-and-trade
is what brought Pearce into the race.  So you can argue that it was that vote which made this race competitive to begin with.  Teague's strength in 2008, getting 56% in a GOP district, might have shied away other opponents.

If Teague had voted no on cap-and-trade, he would probably been safe today.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Disagree 110%
Pierce can say that but he did not get in for the cap and trade vote. Just because he says something does not mean it is true. He got in because he wanted back in public office and he thought it would be a good year.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Continued
I have little doubt Pierce would have ran regardless of Teague's vote.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Pearce was getting back into public office
He was running for Governor.  He switched into NM-2 after the cap-and-trade vote.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
That was the timing of it
But so what? I bet he had decided long before that to run and was just waiting for a good opportunity to announce. The Cap-and-Trade vote was the best opportunity to do so.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Bullshit
Steve Pearce wanted to win his old seat back, if it weren't Cap and Trade he would have found some other excuse to run.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I disagree
Pearce was already running for Governor.  And I think if he had, he may be the nominee today.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Steve Pearce could never have won a statewide general election and he knew it
After his humiliating 21 point loss to Udall, which do you think is more attractive; running for a statewide office he had a very slim chance of winning at or run for his old House seat where he would've had a 50-50 chance?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Susana Martinez
will be your next Governor, and I think Pearce would have had a decent shot against Denish as well.  He isn't the near slam dunk that Denish is, but he isn't a certain loser than he was in 2008 either.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
We
did not know it would be close then. Whether or not he would be ahead now is irrelevant. At the time Denish looked heavily favored and he stood a much better shot at the house seat than the Governors mansion. I hate to be rude but to actually think that he pulled the trigger based on one issue like that is a bit much. Of course he is going to say that. Had I ran against Baron Hill this cycle I would do the same, had I say ran against someone like Northup in 2006 I would have said the war in Iraq. It was pure politics, are you honestly telling me that you believe he would have stayed in the Governors race had Teague voted against cap and trade?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
And there's one more big thing he's ignoring
Martinez was the only Republican candidate who was even close to Denish right up to the primary. If Allen Weh had won the nomination, this race wouldn't even be worth talking about.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Actually I do
Teague was a strong candidate (and for that matter he still is).  The guy was an oil man who also supported alternative energy, and won 56% in a clearly GOP district against a competent candidate.  He was, in normal circumstances, only going to get stronger (and a vote against cap-and-trade would probably have made him nearly unassailable in normal years.)  My inclination in early 2009 was that Teague was going to hold that seat for as long as he wanted it.  

In addition, Pearce basically announced a couple weeks after the cap-and-trade vote.  There was no guarantee ahead of time that Teague was going to vote yes.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Sigh…
Fine let's agree to disagree.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Martinez also was performing a lot better than the rest of the Republicans right before the primary
Martinez will likely win, but that's not true of the other Republicans who ran (Martinez has a lot more appeal to Albuquerque than Pearce ever will, and can do well in Dona Ana County, which is also something that Pierce couldn't do).

Pearce might not have lost by the humiliating 21 points that he did against Udall, but he still would've lost by double-digits, he has absolutely no appeal outside of southern New Mexico (and that includes Albuquerque, which Pearce would absolutely have to keep close in order to have a prayer in the rest of the state).

How Martinez is doing aside, New Mexico is still a Democratic state at the local and state level and even with Richardson's poor numbers, Martinez was still the only Republican who was even close to Denish before the primary. The rest of them were behind by double-digits.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
You need to take off your dark red glasses, 2008 proved Pearce is not viable statewide, period. You don't come back...
...from a 61-38 shellacking, failing to reach 40%, all the way into a statewide victory just 2 years later.  Pearce very clearly has a terrible statewide profile, the state doesn't want to elect a guy who fits the cultural profile of a white hard-core conservative Texan--which is what white New Mexicans in that part of the state really are.

It's extraordinarily naive to think Pearce would drop a statewide bid for a House race due to "personal anger" toward cap-and-trade.  That's just absurd.  That was his cover, and the reality was he saw a much better chance of victory in his old House seat than another iffy statewide bid before an electorate that so thoroughly rejected him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Thank you!
That's exactly what I've been getting at, what makes Pearce a good fit for NM-02 makes him a horrible fit for Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Taos, and the heavily Hispanic and Native American parts of Northwest New Mexico.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I thought
Pearce lost his own Congressional District by quite a large amount during the 2008 Senate run as well.

Also, considering Pearce's background in the oil industry, I do not think it is far fetched to think he switched because of the Cap and Trade vote.

[ Parent ]
Anyone who knows New Mexico politics would understand what I'm talking about
Pearce can't statewide, but he can win in his old district. I don't understand why so many people don't seem to believe that politicians act for political reasons.

Maybe his Cap-and-Trade vote made him more certain, but even Steve Pearce isn't stupid enough to believe that he would have had a better chance of running for Governor than of winning back his old House seat.  

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
And it wasn't a 50/50 shot in 2009
Teague was a pretty damn strong incumbent, he had won 56% in an open seat in a McCain district.  In any other year, Pearce would have been a clear underdog.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Correct
me if I am wrong but most people moved that race to a tossup when he announced. I would certainly hope so anyway, I knew it was competitive the moment he announced . 50-50 seems very accurate. Regardless at the time Denish looked very favored in the general, he wanted back in politics and this seemed the easier race.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Teague has a base in heavily Republican Hobbs
Pearce is also from Hobbs, which limits (though not eliminates) any advantage Teague gets from that, plus you're talking about running against a House incumbent in a traditionally Republican district vs. running against a relatively popular Lt. Governor (at the time, Denish's numbers were quite good) in a state that is a lot more Democratic than the district which he had been a congressman for six years (again, coming right off of a 21-point defeat in the state after typically winning his own district by 20 points).

Even if Pearce would've been a clear underdog (which I certainly don't buy), his chances were still a lot better in NM-02 than statewide (no matter how well Martinez is performing now).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Right
I thought too that Teague's vote for Cap and Trade was the main reason Pearce jumped into the race. I seem to remember a ton of ranting and raving from Pearce about the vote.

I've always found it interesting that Teague supported Cap and Trade considering his background in the oil and gas industry. In a way, his background could help with having to defend his vote.

[ Parent ]
Let me see if I can shed a little enlightenment on this
1. I don't think that DCCC poll is totally accurate in that, I can totally see Teague leading, but not by 7 points.

2. Teague himself is pretty popular in the district, and he's quite a good fit for it. He's also a real work-horse, he knows that outside of Las Cruces (the largest city in the district) it's basically a bunch of rural areas and small towns (Las Cruces is the only place in southern New Mexico that is even close to 100K people with the rest of the towns being 45K (Roswell) or less). He's worked those areas hard, and that's why Pearce and the NRCC are trying to tear him down rather than prop him up.

3. Even though Pearce still holds a level of popularity within the district, he still gave up the seat to run for Senate (and even lost his own district to Tom Udall, a Santa Fe liberal).

4. Teague's biggest advantage in 2008 is the fact that he lives in the extremely Republican southeastern part of the state (Hobbs) and while this advantage is blunted by Pearce (who also lives in Hobbs), it should still be enough to keep him from losing Hobbs by anything close to what Obama lost it or Roswell by (for some perspective, Obama won state-wide by a 15 point margin, he lost this district by 1 point, Lea County (where Hobbs is the county seat) went for McCain 71-27 and Chaves County (where Roswell is the county seat) went 62-37 for McCain; Teague basically tied Tinsley that year in Lea County and only lost by 5 in Chaves County).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I too doubt it is that large a lead
But if you use my "5 point internal" rule it is basically the same as the independent poll.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
And it still leaves me feeling pretty good about our chances there (and for control of the House, it's hard to imagine a scenario where a district like NM-02 doesn't go Republican while we lose 40+ seats).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
If Pearce is behind, you have this ad to thank:

It's so powerful.  It even makes me dislike Pearce despite the fact that I usually have a mental firewall against political ads.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Brutal.
   They have some political geniuses over at the Defenders of Wildlife office.  I remember seeing that the "shooting wolves from helicopters" ad from 2008 was the most effective TV ad in the presidential race.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
yeah, the DCCLive on youtube 2006 and 2008
were so much more effective then this year. I guess it's easier to lob bombs when you are going after seats instead of defending them.  
[ Parent ]
That ad is VERY effective
It should be playing non-stop, I don't even know Pearce well and I already hate him.


21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
Defenders of Wildlife
 Is known for its great ads. In 2006 in CA-11, corrupt and environment hater Richard Pombo faced some great ads against him. They had an ad with Abraham Lincoln stealing (not so honest Abe) and he said if it's okay for Pombo to steal, it's okay for me. Also, they had George Washington lying about the cherry tree and he said, "If it's okay for Pombo to lie, it's okay for me."  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Ah yes. Pombo
Pombo losing in 2006 was soooo sweet. Happy memories. (And for that matter, him finishing in 3rd place in his comeback primary in June was as well).

Here's hoping this Wildlife organization's ad works the same magic against Pearce.
Seems effective to me:  Pearce is helping the polluters of your child's drinking water.

[ Parent ]
I hate Pombo too
 I am glad he is out of congress where he belongs. DOW is good at creating ads. They also ran another ad against Pombo showing a girl in detention asking why she is getting punished while Pombo is not.

I wish DOW ran ads for every big race because whoever runs their ad department has skill.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Nothing surprising
Only NM-2 do I consider a serious Republican pickup opportunity.

I wish they would have released numbers for PA-12 regarding the Gubernatorial and Senate races.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

OR-5
This poll pretty much sucks for Schrader, unless his opponent is a tea party candidate who has lots of baggage.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Not really
If most of the undecideds are Dems. Neither is is fundementally different from the Republican poll that had him up 8 points.
[ Parent ]
Didn't you all hear?
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!

Srsly, this is good numbers for PA-12 and NM-2, yet the pundit class says these are toss ups or surely lost.

Stupid, so stupid.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

PA-12
The stupidity with PA-12 really makes me wonder about the pundit class.  Everything but PVI points in the Democrats favor.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
James L. please fix the dates on those polls b/c I almost had to correct you...
...for using the word "new" and missing that these polls are more than 2 months old with the "7/9" date.

But then I clicked the link and saw the polls were conducted "9/7-9," not "7/9."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Already done
Thanks for the eagle eye, though.
[ Parent ]
surprised about Teague's numbers
I've just been hearing that the cap and trade vote and the heated town hall meetings and was counting Teague for dead.  
There have been a number of polls...
... with Teague polling well.
[ Parent ]
What's the track record on "Grove Insight"?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
OK, they're DCCC polls...
So I'll take them with the appropriate grain of salt, but nonetheless this is some welcome good news. I guess this coming "Red Tide" isn't as big and bad and scary as the RNCC wants us to believe. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
whats up in OR-05?
30% undecided seems a little high no?  
Freshman incumbent v. 2nd term state representative
Seems like the formula for a relatively high undecided poll.
[ Parent ]
Harry Teague
NM-02 is a district very close to my heart as I grew up there and still have lots of family there. That said I really don't see any way Harry Teague wins that race absent a very large turnout in Las Cruces. Things that are working against him are the following:
1) Strong Republican tilt of the district. Picture the bottom half of New Mexico as a district. All of the counties that border Texas are oil rich and vote like Texas which contributes to the strong Republican lean. Pearce while not loved in the district (heck Tom Udall the Liberal from Santa Fe beat him here but please understand that the Udall name is gold in NM) is a good enough name to win in a strong Republican year.
2) Teague needs a strong turnout in Las Cruces which is where New Mexico State University is. However, Susanna Martinez is from Las Cruces and should be able to do above average for a Republican there.
3) Teague has the story of his businesses kicking their employees off of health care, that is not going to help his cause at all.
4) Teague can self-fund as he is very rich but it is unlikely to be enough. He is liked but given the current climate I see Pearce winning this one by 6-9 points.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
But there are still things working for him and against Pearce
1. The Udall name might be golden in New Mexico (and it is) but losing your own house district is really bad, regardless of the opponent.

2. Martinez might help turnout there, but I doubt it translates to any help for Pearce (much in the same way that Obama got no help from Teague in Hobbs despite the fact that Teague is from there).

3. Teague is still from Hobbs (though I'll grant that Pearce is too), that should at least give him 30%-35% of the vote there and possibly go over 40% in Roswell which will be extremely helpful. Plus, Pearce is easy to go after on things like immigration which will allow him to tap into some of the Hispanic vote in the south (that some of them will be voting for Martinez is irrelevant to me, they'll still probably vote largely for Teague).

4. Like I said earlier, Teague has been a work-horse in the district, that ad the Teague campaign came out with was very good for those small towns that line NM-02.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I want to weigh in on the point about Pearce losing his own district to Udall......
WTF!!!  Seriously?!  I didn't even know that.

I don't care how popular the Udalls are in NM, a conservative district like Teague's/Pearce's can always be expected to vote ideologically in a federal race in a presidential year.  I understand the record Hispanic turnout had something to do with NM 2008 results, and that Udall can be expected to outperform Obama statewide who performed well in the district, but still a sitting Congressman is expected to win his own district in a Senate race when the ideological contrast is so stark.

That's the one tidbit I learned from Cool Arrow's post that I have to reject as part of his analysis.  There's something wrong that Pearce lost to Udall among Pearce's own habitual voters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Pearce's Senatorial campaign was a joke
Even if Obama hadn't performed as well as he did, Pearce still would've lost by at least 16-17 points (actually, I think that it was more the case that Obama caught up to Udall rather than Obama providing any real coattails for Udall).

I'm looking through the state right now, but the only county that I can see where Pearce outperformed McCain was Lea County, where he's from, everywhere else he did horribly. This was even more true once you got outside the district, Pearce only won two counties outside of NM-02 (both he won by 3 points, McCain won both by 20 and 40 points respectively).

This is why I've been more bullish than a lot of others on Teague's chances, Pearce only knows how to appeal to the base, while alienating everyone else.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Pearce
Thanks for all of your great analysis. Definitely am glad to be here and read your very thoughtful analysis.

Pearce had no business running for Senate in 2008. The best Republican candidate was Heather Wilson. Pearce is basically a clone of one of the West Texas conservative ideologues and it turned off a lot of moderate Republicans. He is very much a hardcore social conservative.

I still believe that it is going to be an uphill race but maybe that is rooted in growing up in Las Cruces and consistently seeing Dems being blown out time after time. While Teague blew out Tinsley he did get a lot of Obama voters that I am not sure that he can count on in 2010.

I hope that I am wrong on this one and the polling is consistently giving me second thoughts about my bias.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Teague got a number of Obama voters
But Teague also got quite a few McCain voters, and that's what gives him a fighting chance this year (despite the things going against him).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
At some point
You have to believe the polling. I find the gut often unreliable.
[ Parent ]
Agree. The "gut" is useful for seeing around corners, I think, but in this case...
...the fundamentals of the race are set, and the outcome will be decided by candidates and campaigns.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
.
I grew up there as well - in Ruidoso.

That being said, I disagree with everything you said.

The district only has a PVI of R+6, not overwhelmingly Republican by any measure.

Denish is from Hobbs. So if you reckon Susanna Martinez is going to run up turnout in the most Democratic area of the district, then surely Denish can run up turnout in a very Republican part of the district as well? Sure.

I see Teague winning by a point or two.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
And plus, Teague is from Hobbs
Granted, Pearce is from there too, but it still means that Teague should do better in Hobbs and maybe Roswell than most Democrats.

Incidentally I never realized how many current and former New Mexicans are on this board, we need our own snooty club or something :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
The
second two polls worry me. Being near 40 in your own poll is not a good sign. Critz being that close in his own internal is not comforting either.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
.
...these are DCCC internals, not the individual campaigns'.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Critz's last internal in the special had him +8
he won by 6-7, relax!
[ Parent ]
Actually, no, Critz won by 8, same margin as his last internal. And the numbers were...
...44-36 in his internal, and 53-45 on election day.

We all laughed off his internal here as an outlier for public consumption only.

But no, those proved honest numbers.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well alright then
I thought the late vote narrowed the margin down some from that, but hey, if dem internals are exactly right, I'm down with that!
[ Parent ]
I was the only person not laughing in America at that poll <nm>


23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
To your credit, you've been very consistent in predicting a specific pattern for this fall......
I will be interested to see how well the actual House results fall in line with your theory that it's in purple suburbs where Dems fall hard, NOT in our more conservative rural seats.

And you did smartly point out that a lot of the released Dem internals showing things better than we feared were in rural districts.  That's very true.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Does anyone think
that these are the best 4 polls that the DCCC had on hand out of some larger number of districts that were polled?  They may have polled some other districts but did not release results for those that came out bad.
Of Course
But Republicans do the same thing with their internal polling.
[ Parent ]
the DCCC released 9 other polls last week
of competitive races. So, they cherry pick ... It's basically to scare off the other side from coming in and pouring money into a particular race.  
[ Parent ]
True
And other reasons: good news cycle, hearten supporter, dishearten opponents, increase donations to your candidate, etc.
[ Parent ]
I think the main criterion in picking the cherries is to sell hope......
Almost all the internals they've released show vulnerable Democratic incumbents winning.  That's by design.

The exception was Perriello, where the disastrous SUSA polls changed the expectations so that a poll showing Perriello down 2 looked good in comparison.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
If I Can Be Very Cynical ...
I think leaking bad internals (not necessarily saying the Perriello one was) could be an attempt to get donors to stop giving to that candidate and divert their funds.

A part of me thinks that was the rationale behind the DSCC (I can't imagine it was his own campaign) leaking that awful Ellsworth internal.

[ Parent ]
Did Ellsworth ever poll before getting into that race?
His running in that race was probably the dumbest decision any politician has made all decade.  Even worse than Heather Wilson running for Senate in 2008.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah it's anka.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Disagree on Wilson
She entered before Tom Udall changed his mind on running, before that it was Marty Chavez running, who frankly doesn't excite a lot of people (there's a reason he lost re-election last year) and it wasn't a given that Steve Pearce would be able to beat her in a primary early on anyways.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
No, Thanks to Evan Bayh
Let's remember how Ellsworth got into this race--Evan Bayh dropped out at the very, very last minute and we recruited Ellsworth to jump in because he was basically the best we could come up with. I still think he is. I still think he can win. He's got a stellar profile and Coats is a baggage-laden vampire (the unsexy kind).

The point is, I hate Evan Bayh. Also, national Dems better help Ellsworth because he shouldn't lose to a scumbag sellout like Coats.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I join you in your hate of Bayh
A DINO who leaves his party in the lurch at the last minute.  What a POS.  One of the good things after this year is not having Evan Bayh in the senate.
[ Parent ]
In his defense
Maybe he waited to the last minute and we had it worked out to get Ellsworth because our best while the GOP got stuck with not theirs.  And I definitely think Ellsworth can close-in if he works the ad strategy that he needs to.  Paint him as a douchey DC person, do the NC quote, be the local Sheriff who knows IN, who has actually lived there lately.
[ Parent ]
You're thinking too much on this one, tallsy. No they don't do that. The reality is...
...money isn't there to be "had" for just any purpose, and parties and candidates know that.  There's no way to divert money from projected losers to possible winners.  And there's no reason for a party committee to be so underhanded.  You just publicize the candidacies you favor and stay quiet about others.  And mostly the committees just raise money for themselves, anyway, not for candidates.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Then Ellsworth Leaked it!!
If that's right, then Ellsworth doesn't deserve to be a Senator.
[ Parent ]
And I'm Just Not Sure
The people who actually give $$ are a tiny, highly informed segment. Some must abandon a candidate who has bad internals leaked publicly and thus give somewhere else.
[ Parent ]
People complained
When there were no internals and now they complain when they are.
[ Parent ]
I think they are being smart and trickling out these polls to
keep the news cycle going.  
[ Parent ]
Good News
Particularly Chandler. And I'm glad DCCC realizes that allowing the GOP to fill the narrative with their internal polls.

Still, if you follow the "5% rule" which admittedly I don't think is hard and fast, you have to be concerned about NM-2 and PA-12.

Still up two
Considering most continue to leave Teague for dead I would call that a great sign. The Critz lead is exactly as I would expect.
[ Parent ]
Not really with NM-02
Teague is running against the former representative for that district, that basically means his name recognition is at the same level as Teague's. Plus, most people probably have thought that NM-02 was a goner, especially if the Republicans are poised to take the House. If NM-02 isn't in the bag for the Republicans, it means the chances that they're taking the House back are probably significantly diminished.

And yes, with the caveat that waves can be really unpredictable and that it can't really be said that any one district will be lost depending on the number of seats being taken out, I have a really hard time imagining a scenario in which the Republicans win over 40 seats and NM-02 not being one of them (or even 30 seats).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Different 5% Rule
I'm not talking about the "incumbent Rule" which I agree won't play a role here, but rather the supposed 5% boost that leaked internals give their side.
[ Parent ]
Understood
But still, a two-point lead for Teague is better than what most have thought about this race.

It's not to say that we don't need to be wary of the seat, but this is still very good news for us.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
It certainly isn't hard and fast
Merely a possible guide towards how things really are.
[ Parent ]
Yeah I think people put too much into that
We had a DSCC poll last week showing Murray up 5 in Washington, now an independent poll shows her ahead by 9.

And that independent poll of NM-2 a week or two ago also was about the same as this DCCC poll, maybe a point or two closer.

So let's not vest too much into the idea that partisan polls have a 5 point lean in their own direction.

[ Parent ]
Y'know the DCCC might know what it's doing
Think about it, they are silent until around Labor day, they let the NRCC release their polls through the summer, dems are doomed, etc. Build this narrative they don't combat except by the candidates within each seat.

Then, when people start paying attention, begin to unleash their narratives, start showing their cards, and suddenly "D.O.A." dems start looking pretty good, they come back, and the narrative changes to "GOP snags defeat from jaws of victory." It knocks them on their heels, and they suddenly have to unexpectedly, fight back on their own narrative they had established all summer.

Good job, Van Hollen. I knew I liked you for a reason (besides how well you played special elections, and how better you spread your resources in 2008 than Rahm in 2006)

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

These polls were just taken
and the ones they released last week were also recent, so I don't think there is any strategy in holding polls for the right moment. They are probably not releasing polls that aren't so positive, but these districts, along with NV-3, NY-24, and SD-AL, are all critical for repubs if they want to take over the house. At the least they have a hard battle to win any of them.
[ Parent ]
Oh I know they are new
What I am saying is to build the narrative they want, these are probably the 3ed-6th time each of these districts were polled, these are just the most recent, and the first time they decided to make the numbers public. As I said, part of narrative building to start making it DCCC policy to begin leaking SOME polls as of late August, but not before.

You think it's coincidence that things are quiet from all dem campaigns (except Shuler, I think) until THE day the DCCC releases their internals, and suddenly 4 campaigns open up right away with others following in the following weeks, like Pat Murphy? This is built in a way to create a narrative.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Can always get a new poll
 to show what they've known all along.

To the overall point of them letting the GOP building a narrative so that we squash it and look like heroes, I wish.  Building a narrative means building momentum and that's literally money in the bank.  Them getting more in donations long-term (and expectation) can kill you.  And this has been the main problem all along, we let them build a narrative of us sucking and we did nothing to battle it.  I cant think of a single buzzword/phrase positive about HCR but can think of a whole lot negative ones.

And it's not like it's hard to battle "no."  The Party of No theme should have really been applied because after the umpteenth time of them saying no, it'd finally click with voters that wow, they really do just poo-poo everything.  Imagine the GOP saying no to the small-business bill and Obama getting the free press for going, "Oh here they go again.  They cant even support a bill that helps small-businesses get Americans back to work."  

This has all been such a fucking disaster because we sat back and let them act like they have the Presidency and majorities in Congress.

[ Parent ]
They seem to do this a lot
Republicans have dominated summer in the past 2 cycles and this one too.  By the time we have the election season start, all of a sudden Democrats go into a blitz like this.  The trick is whether or not this is a good idea, since the GOP momentum could be a little too strong to overcome.  In the past, however, stopping the momentum from snowballing has been a winner.  
[ Parent ]
If we had fewer open seats, we would probably hold the House
Imagine if Democrats had convinced Paul Hodes, Brad Ellsworth, Paul Hodes, and Charlie Melancon to run for reelection rather than go for highly risky Senate runs in what was likely to be a very tough year.

Then imagine if Democrats had worked harder to convince Dennis Moore, Brian Baird, Marion Berry, John Tanner, Bart Gordon, and Bart Stupak to run for reelection?

We probably would have won all of those seats unstead of being highly favored to lose every one of them and would have kept the House 220-215, rather than likely losing it 225-210 as Nate Silver says.  

Hi
welcome to SSP, I am terribly sorry to ask but you are not anka are you? If not you are probably wondering what I am talking about and I apologize greatly. I ask this because you fit the profile, I mean no offense. Thanks.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Paul Anka?
The singer back in the late 70's/early 80's.  Im not him, but I am a fan!!!
[ Parent ]
lol
You know very well what I mean.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Great minds!

[ Parent ]
Profiling? Lol.
Who is Anka??

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Did I miss something?
Who's anka?  Is he anything like Tekzilla?
[ Parent ]
I think
 anka was a troll here who was pessimistic.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
House isn't lost yet Anka.

[ Parent ]
Bart Stupak
is in a situation where if he had run he would have lost. His waffling and national attention regarding the abortion issue in the HCR debate was not appropriate. I would compare it to Ben Nelson.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
How?
That's quite a stretch.
[ Parent ]
I agree
I think Stupak might have won again in his district, and that he actually was truthful in giving as his reason for bowing out that it wasn't worth his family getting death threats.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I think
he definitely backed out due to the family threats. But I also really think he was losing his charm in the UP.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
KY-06, NM-02, OR-05, PA-12: Dems Lead in DCCC Polls | 110 comments

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