Google Ads


Site Stats

DE-Sen: O'Donnell Leads Castle in New PPP Poll

by: James L.

Sun Sep 12, 2010 at 9:38 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Christine O'Donnell (R): 47
Mike Castle (R): 44
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±3.8%)

Holy shit, man walks on fucking moon.

And the House nums:

Glen Urqhart (R): 50
Michele Rollins (R): 38
Rose Izzo (R): 3
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±3.8%)

An Urqhart win would be something of an upset here, since Rollins won the backing of the state GOP. Both are richie riches, though, so I can't say who I'd prefer to see Dem John Carney face in November.

UPDATE: Earlier this evening, we asked on Twitter: If Mike Castle were to lose the DE-Sen primary, would the DE-AL GOP primary winner step aside and let Castle run for re-election to the House?
James L. :: DE-Sen: O'Donnell Leads Castle in New PPP Poll
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

DE-Sen: O'Donnell Leads Castle in New PPP Poll | 227 comments
apparently
...you know what?  there are no monkey fighting words for this.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Not on this Monday-Friday Plane


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
"Holy shit" is right
Let's hope this isn't one of PPP's signature misfires.  
"Signature" misfires?
What were the others? (NY-23 doesn't count.)
[ Parent ]
PA primary 2008
was the one I had in mind.  
[ Parent ]
Wow
One bad poll and a firm becomes known for its "signature" misfires? Harsh stuff.
[ Parent ]
Well, that was one of their signature misfires,
but it isn't their signature to misfire.

SUSA has bad days too (In particular, the Indiana landslide they predicted for Hillary in 2008).

(BTW, I don't see why you set aside NY-23).

[ Parent ]
While the poll was in the field
Scoz. dropped out. And she may have endorsed Owens at that time too.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Right
That was an impossible situation. If PPP made any mistake that weekend, it was in choosing to release the numbers at all, rather than just tossing them into the rubbish bin. Though I can certainly sympathize with their decision to make the data public.
[ Parent ]
Then why did Siena and R2K come much closer
to the final result than PPP? Don't buy it, I have heard Tom Jensen's rational, and it is full of holes, not just the other pollster's results. They also had Hoffman ridiculously ahead before the repub Ded dropped out. If it was her dropping out that messed everything up they shouldn't have been so far off before she dropped out. I have my theories on why PPP missed the mark so much on that race, dealing with the peculiarities of the district and problems with automated polling with the demographics within it, but they do not do as well with CDs out of NC than they do with their other polls. It is a weak spot for them.

[ Parent ]
They botched PA-12 pretty badly too
But I can't think of a statewide race where they've been horribly wrong, primary or general. I trust them, upset as I am with these results.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Tough crowd
If I were a pollster, I'd only hope my record was as good as PPP's.
[ Parent ]
I know, right?
When your detractors can only point to one poll from the weekend before a special election during which, while the poll was in the field, a major party candidate dropped out and then endorsed the other candidate, and another special election poll where you were a few points off, I think you've got a pretty good handle on polling.  
[ Parent ]
They polled before
That crazy weekend.
[ Parent ]
Given what we know now...
are you sure you want to include R2K there?  They may have just made up numbers to look plausible, which turned out to be reasonably close to the final result.
[ Parent ]
R2K was closer...
... because they cooked the books.  PPP did have a bad poll, but that was  brutal race to poll.
[ Parent ]
OK, that's fair

[ Parent ]
PA-12 Special Election
Not a terrible misfire, but not a particularly good performance. CDs outside of NC, PPP doesn't match their statewide quality. But they are probably about right with this, maybe slanting slightly for O'Donnell because of higher enthusiasm, but it is going to be close.
[ Parent ]
Less surprising result
Urquahrt leads Rollins, 50-38. That does not surprise me. Her campaign seemed to lack energy. For those of you who were concerned, yes, I am breathing now and trying to find ways of discrediting the PPP poll and making a list for the liquor store.  
i
am with you as a fellow party member.  I am not happy about this.  However, I think a victory by Kelly Ayotte is much more important.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
I dunno
I too prefer Ayotte over Lamontagne, and think Ayotte will be a long term star.  But we still probably win NH with Ovide, but you can absolutely write off Delaware if O'Donnell wins.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Kelly Ayotte has interesting baggage too
I think Paul Hodes stands a pretty good chance with either Ayotte or Lamontagne.



21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Maybe he does
if he actually campaigns effectively. What has his campaigning been like, so far? I mean, what kinds of campaigning has he been concentrating on?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Here's one idea
and it won't be popular here.  But perhaps PPP is doing something that the Dems/left have been accusing Rasmussen of doing, i.e. putting out polls to "set the narrative".  I admit that I have no proof of this, but neither did anyone who was accusing Rasmussen.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
if ppp
hadn't nailed florida's primary, i would agree with you. seeing as how they had a very recent success when no one else did, i think they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I know
I don't actually think PPP is doing this on purpose, but I do think they have a sample that includes too many conservatives.

I predict Castle wins by about 10 on Tuesday.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
You can make a case
That Rasmussen is being selective to the GOP's advantage -- e.g. running so many ND-AL/SD-AL polls but choosing to pretend that DE-AL does not exist whenever they poll Delaware.
[ Parent ]
PPP
lives to make money. If Castle wins by a huge margin it will hurt PPP greatly. I have never accused Rasmussen of creating a narrative but in defense of some who did (Again I was never one) Rasmussen put out funky looking polls long before the election. The only polls people look at when judging a pollster is the one closet to the election. PPP has no reason to create a narrative. Especially if it hurts their credibility. Sorry but that is a ludicrous statement.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
That's right.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Your first sentence says it all, but you didn't finish the thought. I will......
PPP relies on paying clients to survive.

Rasmussen is subscriber-based, they can manufacture a GOP bias and build a large right-wing subcriber base wearing red glasses who won't question the results.

But PPP's revenue stream comes from paying clients who need correct numbers, and a public poll that's wrong really hurts PPP's reputation and ensuing business.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Thank You nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Flaw In Your Theory...
...is that the same profit-driven motive was the foundation of R2K's business model.

Now, I am in no way insinuating that PPP is a fraudulent operation. In fact, I don't think they are. But I also don't think SUSA is a fraudulent operation, and everything you said about PPP's business model applies to SUSA, and I think SUSA is putting out some polls right now that are a complete joke.  

The reality is that the media outlets that pay for polls don't want to pay to have them done right. So they use the cheapest pollsters, and especially far out from election day those pollsters put out a lot of crap.  

[ Parent ]
Let me clarify, Dana, with the distinction: PPP's clients are...
...partisan interests and others who NEED to know the state of a race or entire election.  PPP doesn't have media clients, DailyKos being their only quasi-exception.  My understanding is that PPP markets to candidates, party organizations, their (Democratic, since they are a partisan outfit) allies, and perhaps some nonpartisan clients like trade associations.  THOSE kinds of clients demand correct numbres, not just something they can wave around in front of an audience.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Not likely
The horserace question was asked first, so there's nothing you can really point a finger at. Plus PPP does not have a history of consistently putting out "outlier" polls like Rasmussen often does, with the possible exception of North Carolina. As inconsistent as this result is with the rest of the polling we have seen to date, I can't see any flaws with their crosstabs or methodology. Reminds me a little of their last FL-Gov poll, as they were one of the few to get that right.

Castle had better fire one heck of a closing shot tomorrow.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
The
rest of polling is internal. Remember there was an internal that had Murkowski up by a HUGE margin.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yes it is, but
There was that TPX poll from this week that had Castle up 7 or so, I believe. Unless that poll was a little older than we thought? Of course with primaries like this that develop quickly at the end, the TPX poll could have been correct a week ago but there could have been more movement to O'Donnell this week.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Fair Point
Though that was before the Palin endorsement.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Getting a reliable poll in AK is murder
look at the history of polling there, no one usually gets very close in the end, the repub or more conservative candidate almost always outperforms the polls significantly.

Delaware is on the other hand probably one of the easiest states to poll. I think this poll is pretty close to accurate, although Castle could win narrowly because O'Donnell's supporters are more enthusiastic about answering the poll.

[ Parent ]
Ugh...
That's based solely on '08, I don't remember ever hearing about this horrible Democratic bias in Alaska polling in '06 or '04.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
As a fellow Republican
do you really think the primary electorate is this stupid?  This is far worse than nominating Angle.  O'Donnell has zero chance to win the general.  

I still think Castle is up by around 10..  I don't think PPP is doing anything on purpose, but I do think this sample includes too many "conservatives" and tea party members, this is Delaware after all.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
I don't know what to think
What boggles me here is that unlike Angle, Paul, Miller, etc. O'Donnell is a failed past candidate. The other Tea Party faves were at least fresh faces who had never won statewide before, so you can't fault people for really wanting someone new. But anyone politically active in Delaware knows that O'Donnell has lost two elections before, and should know she's not electable statewide.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
in fairness
christine never won statewide either.  except for the republican 2008 primary i guess.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Angle was a twice failed candidate
but not statewide, she lost the primary for Nevada-2 in 2006, and lost a primary for a state senate seat in 2008.

As far as Delaware, I think this is plainly an anti-Castle vote.  I now think that Castle was bound to have 40% vote against him regardless of whom the opponent is.  It kind of reminds me of Lieberman in 2006.  What boggles me is that I'm sure that many/most of these voters have voted for Castle in the past and know that he is moderate.  His record this Congress, opposing the stimulus and Obamacare, has actually been more conservative than before.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
It's not about your voting record.
It's about passing the conservative cultural litmus test.

DavidNYC, 12/22/09:

It's important to remember that to remain a member in good standing of the conservative movement, it isn't enough just to vote a certain way. You have to evidence a very particular tribal belonging - you need to hate the right people, be ignorant of the right facts, be fearful of the right bogeymen, and be arrogant about the whole enterprise. If you somehow fail this tribal litmus test, it doesn't matter how right-wing you are - that's how, for example, a wildly conservative guy like former Rep. Chris Cannon could lose a primary to another wildly conservative maniac.

[ Parent ]
Sadly this is true
There is no other reason for why good conservatives like Bob Bennett and Bob Inglis were tossed out this year.  


38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Kudos to you for saying that
It's good to see sane conservatives on this site. Eventually, I hope people like you will change the Republican Party back into a constructive force for thoughtful people who dissent from the Democratic Party but don't demonize it, and who are willing to cooperate across the aisle on mutual interests, for the good of the country. The results of this primary will demonstrate just how strong the fanatical demonizers are, because whatever else anyone can say about Castle, his record shows (even if quite a bit less so, if we consider only no statements but only votes in the last two years) that he is a thinking man and no extremist, by nature. O'Donnell, on the other hand...

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
This kind of speculation
Is really not okay. The "case against Rasmussen" is based on a lot more than mere supposition. Throwing out accusations like this with, as you admit, no proof, is really not kosher here.
[ Parent ]
Oh C'mon
I'm not willing to accept the case against Rasmussen being a bad pollster as more than mere supposition, because it's predicated on the flawed premise that Rasmussen is a pollster.  
[ Parent ]
Sorry
I'm disgusted by the results of this poll, if true.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
In other news....
In the Republican House Primary for Delaware at large Glen Urquhart leads Michele Rollins 50-38% with Rose Izzo way back at 3%.

I don't know much about this race but Urquhart leads with liberals and conservatives and Rollins leads with moderates.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Please, God. Yes

worse for castle
this could create a self fulfilling prophecy. How many people do you think there are who would only vote for castle because odonnell is seen as throwing away a vote?  5% of the electorate?  10%?  it seems like a real race now, and even if this poll is completely false, it will still be the driving dynamic going into tuesday most likely.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Here's the tell: does Castle leak an internal?
If not, I would take that to be a bad sign for him.  
[ Parent ]
Here's your tell.
The kitchen sink done got thrown at her.
[ Parent ]
Heh,
I wonder what that will do to the reverse gender gap PPP is reporting?
[ Parent ]
Do you really think that will change
any votes? The Republicans have shown time and time again this year to not care about scandals and wrong-doings. They only seem interested in electing the most conservative candidate possible.  
[ Parent ]
This thing is starting to reek of the Chafee/Laffey primary from '06
With the RINO, establishment-backed incumbent having to fend off a right-wing, grassroots-y challenger. A poll conducted two weeks prior to primary day showed Laffey up 17 points (!) over Chafee. Ultimately, the rank-and-file woke up and Chafee prevailed by 8.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
It's narrow enough to not be like that
I think this shows that O'Donnell is viable but I think it's a major stretch by any accounts to say that she's ahead.  It's somewhat sad to see that be the case, since PPP was one of the only ones that got FL-Gov right so it seems like they're betting a lot on their reputation to throw numbers like this without double checking.  

Overall, I think Castle's going to push back on Monday, but this is definitely a "wait until she actually wins" kind of game rather than something to pop the champagne for deal.

[ Parent ]
But this aint that year
Nobody woke up for Jane Norton, Trey Grayson, or Sue Lowden. In '06 the GOP base was asleep and the party was just trying to save seats from a Dem onslaught. This year the base is aggressive and pissed off against the GOP establishment.  
[ Parent ]
.
I agree. The Chafee/Laffey ordeal is more akin to the Dem challengers this year from the left based solely on Healthcare "No" votes. The Dems choose the more electable "No" voters in the primary (but they'll probably lose anyway).

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Thank You Delaware Republicans!
Thank you Sarah! Thank You O'Donnell supporters. I kid you not I literally just walked out of my house and yelled thank you Jesus! Not even playing I swear I did. I live in the middle of nowhere and no one heard me but still. Oh Beau Biden must be kicking himself right now. Well you deserve it Beau.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Not the time to celebrate yet
If this is true, there's a lot to celebrate on Tuesday.  Otherwise, this may just be an outlier.  PPP has been doing some stellar work recently, so one outlier out of the numerous polls they do is reasonable to expect.
[ Parent ]
Werent they the only ones to get
Rick Scott correct?
[ Parent ]
Yeah I mention that in another comment
I'm just saying that, with all the good work they've been doing so far in the primaries, it's not unexpected if they have an outlier or two (the whole 1 in 20 kind of deal).  
[ Parent ]
Yes!!
Recently, PPP has been the gold standard for polling. As mentioned, they're not the best at polling individual Congressional races, but they're pretty on top of their game with statewide races.

Win or lose for Castle, Tuesday seems likely to be a splash of cold water on his face. And considering how self-centered and unreasonable O'Donnell is, she might go for a write-in and continue to teabag Castle to death during the general election.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
^^^^^^^THIS
Political Geeks and Nerds rejoice. The rest go, "Wha? There's an election?"

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
I've been trying to get my friends to care at all about the Mass primaries
Honestly I don't blame them.  Most of our Statewide offices are uncontested as are most of the state house and senate seats. Even my housemate, who majored in Political Science, is going to be out of town and didn't bother voting absentee.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
If you're Chris Coons, you start fundraising
off of this PRONTO.  
Wow!
If O'Donnell really wins the primary, it will be time to post a new tune for Swing State: "I Know that My Redeemer Liveth" from Handel's "Messiah"!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
Although
a lot of things happened over the course of this poll including a Sarah endorsement and everything else. Will the momentum last? Even if not it is clear O'Donnell is a serious candidate now, if she does go write in I can see her getting a significant number of votes to make this thing competitive for Coons. Also I read a blog that said the state party may actually back Coons over O'Donnell. It was a right leaning one but still.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
The momentum is late breaking
I think it was a double edged sword for her to rack up so much support later on in the game because, if that didn't pan out for her, it'd be a case of too little too late.  On the other hand, if she's still somewhat formidable, the fact that these endorsements got rolled so late is only something that can help her.
[ Parent ]
Having it happen so late
Didnt allow Castle to create the narrative of how batshit crazy she is.  Hard to do that in two weeks time.
[ Parent ]
Exactly right
She could've either flopped, or it could've been her one real shot at winning this primary.  It was a hail mary at its finest and, so far, it seems like it's having its intended effect, although by how much and, more importantly, if enough at all is completely up for debate.
[ Parent ]
Prayer works!
Thank you, Flying Spaghetti Monster! May your Noodly Appendage slash the tires of Castle supporters on Tuesday.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
Prayer works...
... thank you Aqua Buddha!
[ Parent ]
If you're wondering two steps ahead
Castle could run write-in, but not third party unless the libertarian quits, it seems.
wouldn't that be like
lieberman or zell miller running as a green?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I think
either one runs third party somehow now.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
I may not have been clear.
It's too late for either to reach the ballot as an independent.  Only the slots of parties which have already sought ballot access (D, R, L) are available.
[ Parent ]
If either runs third party
Chris Coons is likely the next senator from Delaware.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
Or
As we suggest in the update, he could try to prevail upon whichever GOPer wins the DE-AL primary to step aside and let him run for the House again. Maybe.
[ Parent ]
as mentioned down thread
his wife wants him to retire.  i can't imagine being rejected statewide for... christine odonnell... and wanting to continue in politics when you're 70 and your wife says it's time to quit.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I
would certainly hope not. That is very un-democratic and self serving to the max.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Tell it
To Rob Andrews!
[ Parent ]
Camden County
Camden County NJ is the most machine-run county in a machine state.  The voters are totally irrelevant there.  Delaware is not the same thing.
[ Parent ]
David, Castle won't want his House seat back. To refresh your memory...
...last year Castle was very clear he either would run for Senate or retire.  He was not running for reelection, that was his first decision.  His wife all cycle wanted him to retire and the both of them to move to Florida.  Mike Castle probably had to do quite the sales job on her to convince her to let him run for Senate and serve there for awhile.  If he loses the primary, the Castles might be relocated to Florida even before November.

This was all public information Castle revealed in one or more public comments.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I could see him
Resigning early if he loses.  
[ Parent ]
I can't imagine Castle wants it that much though
From what I've gathered, he ran for Senate in the first place because he got a strong challenge from Carney. He thought he'd get a Senate seat for not too much trouble. Apparently he thought wrong!

Besides, to win as either a Libertarian or a write-in would be next to impossible with O'Donnell as the actual Republican nominee.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
does anyone else think
she looks like julia louis dreyfus?  if so can you say new adventures of old christine?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
maybe a little bit like her
   She sure is great looking on the outside (not to go all SSP Cosmo on y'all). It is on the inside where she is ugly. Plus it is weird how she is so against sex that she even is opposed to masturbation. I wonder what she is really like; she must have some interesting demons in her that make her the way she is.  

  Whatever. I just hope she wins the nomination, loses the general election, and we non-Delawareans never have to hear about here again...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Here's a big question: if Castle loses, does he endorse Coons or no one? I bet he will NOT endorse...
...O'Donnell.  I'd be shocked if he did.  Castle is the old school Rockefeller Republican who surely has zero respect personally or politically for someone like O'Donnell.  I bet he at least respects Coons, because everyone does.  And he's retired permanently if he loses on Tuesday, he has no political future to protect that would be destroyed by endorsing Coons.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
I
read that the state GOP (!!!!) is thinking of endorsing Coons if O'Donnell wins. Now I doubt this actually happens, they are probably trying to scare people into voting Castle or it is just a right wing story but all the same I have no doubt Castle either stays neutral or endorses Coons. I would put money on a Coons endorsement. Castle is too old to make a political comeback, what does he have to lose?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Castle said publicly last year his wife wanted him to retire, so yes his future is...
...retirement for sure if he loses Tuesday.  His wife wants to pack up and go to Florida...literally.

So Castle, a septegenarian already, really truly has nothing to lose by endorsing Coons.  As a matter of personal integrity, I won't be surprised if he does.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Agree
If I was his age I probably would as well. Honestly it doesn't matter though. Even if Castle does endorse O'Donnell the race is still 100% Coons.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, he would pull a Cartman.
"Screw you guys, I'm going home."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
awesome

[ Parent ]
This kind of raises the question about the seat in the first place
I guess this is conspiracy-like, but couldn't it be possible that Beau Biden didn't seek the seat because of some prior arrangement with Castle?  Biden and Castle were both institutions in Delaware, and I haven't seen anything about them being anything less than chummy with one another.  With Castle being 70, I find it hard to believe he'd go for another term in 2016, which would give Biden a clear shot at winning.  

I'm sure Biden's working his tail off for Coons, but it still seems odd that Beau didn't go for it, since his father's endorsement and his own poll numbers would've suggested the race to be pretty good for him if he actually put himself into it.

[ Parent ]
I mean 2014 n/t

[ Parent ]
Like I've said a million times
It could very easily be the case that Beau just didn't want to run for the senate now (whether Castle ran or not) and Joe engineered this whole thing on his own before even talking to his son about it (I'm sorry, but Joe Biden strikes me as the type of person who would do something like that).

Like I said before, any blame I give to Beau is minor relative to the blame I give to Joe for running for the damn seat while on the ticket.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
A lobbying job
No Republican who endorses a Dem gets a lobbying job.  Whather Castle has the time or interest in such a job decides whether he endorses O'Donnell if he loses.

The lobbying job may be the determining factor for Lisa Murkowski.  She's younger and has no political future as she hardly has the persona or the grit of a Wally Hickel.  And neither of the godfathers of the Republican pork RINOs, Ted Stevens or her father Frank, can help.  Stevens, the biggest pork master on the planet is dead.

[ Parent ]
I think this happened too soon for O'Donnell...
The local newspapers and the NRSC are in full battle mode, and this poll will only further motivate moderates to get out and vote on Tuesday.

However I wonder if this will hurt Castle even when he wins.  I wonder if this will make people see him differently in that he could barely beat a nutter of a candidate and needed a full court press from the NRSC and local media to drag him to a narrow win.  

Will folks start seeing him as old, tired and give Coons a real look as politically moderate, but with the ability to build seniority for the next 30 years?

Will the O'Donnell supporters stay home in November? Castle and the NRSC didn't pull no punches in it's counter-attack.

Assuming De has a sore loser law, will the TPX try and run a third candidate? Could O'Donnell run a write-in campaign?  

too soon?
it's sunday before the election and most voters won't find out about this until tomorrow morning or the 6 PM news.  I'd say it's perfect.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Primary is Tuesday...
There is a whole day yet to get out the news and wake up enough primary voters to get to the polls for Castle.  
[ Parent ]
I can only answer the last part
Christine O'Donnell can and probably will run a write in campaign as she did after losing the '06 Senate primary to a similarly low-profile Republican.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
yes
of course she will.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
No matter what happens..
Chris Coons should be popping champagne....and then figuring out how to fundraise to run a gloves-off campaign.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
If O'Donnell wins, Coons is a shoo-in.
He'd get all the Dem vote and at least 60% of the Castle GOP/indie vote.  
[ Parent ]
Urquhart will be easier to beat
I think the one poll that included a Carney/Urquhart matchup had him doing about as well as Rollins (who isn't self-funding, by the way -- she just has a rolodex full of her fellow rich people to donate to her), but Urquhart is the conservative in the race who's dragged Rollins to the right in the primary. He doesn't seem to have much appeal beyond the Republican base.
About the original question
Assuming that it were legally possible for a failed Senatorial candidate to switch gears and declare himself the Republican nominee for his own abandoned seat, which state party officials would support the move?
More importantly, what would motivate an elected candidate to step down inorder to allow a rejected candidate (i.e. Mike Castle) to run in his or her stead?
If Glen Urquhart wins the nomination to run for the Congressional seat, it would be a clear victory for the conservative wing of the Delaware Republicans which they would relish esp. with O'Donnell at the top of the ticket.
I don't see a chance of him giving up his spot.
If Michele Rollins wins (and Castle loses) there is a slight, but better chance that she would relinquish the nomination under the pretext that moderate Republicans could still hold a House seat with an experienced representative.
Even this scenario sounds farfetched though.  
[ Parent ]
I don't think Urquhart would drop out for Castle
As far as I can tell, he hasn't endorsed in the Senate race, though his wife did show up to a Castle fundraiser. But the fact that he's a staunch conservative, and Castle is... not, makes me believe that he'd rather see Carney win than give up the nomination for Castle.
[ Parent ]
OMG


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
Exactly what I thought


21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
does it even matter now?
DE is over anyway now. O'Donnell seems to have enough support now that she will run a third party write in campaign now. That plus the damage that has been done to Castle ends this one even in Castle wins Tuesday.  

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
I wouldn't be so sure
She got 4.4% in 2006 as a write-in in a race that was in no way, shape, or form competitive. I think she'd probably have to pull double-digits to throw the election to Coons.
[ Parent ]
that was
in a dem year, pre tea party.  if she comes close, it shows tea partiers are alive and well in DE and her write in totals could be higher.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
this is a race they'd be very willing to throw
to stick to the GOP establishment I bet.
[ Parent ]
i think
she might get 10%.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Cat food becomes cat nip.
    Never, ever say "never" when talking about the preferences of a tiny, Republican primary electorate.

24, Male, GA-05
As I said in the weekly open thread
the electorate went from 35% GOP in 2006 to 29% GOP in 2010.

I has become smaller and more conservative.

It happened around the country, and is why tea party people are winning primaries.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
In DE anyway...


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
A Point Worth Tweeting
[ Parent ]
Haha, Dang, I should put my twitter in my sig
it's @RyanDack if you care at all.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
From PPP on Twitter
GE numbers we'll release later show Coons clocking O'Donnell, closer to Castle than he has been

http://twitter.com/ppppolls


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Fantastic news for Coons
but it gives me pause as to whether the sample they got was just...off.  Still, if this does pan out on Tuesday, and there's still every indication that it won't, then this race doesn't shape up to be a prime target for Republicans after all.
[ Parent ]
Even Tea Partiers can't be this stupid.
Hope I'm wrong but this poll sounds to good to be true to me.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Sure they can
If they weren't that stupid they wouldn't have tried to spend money on her behalf at all in Delaware.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
my thought as well
There aren't a lot of moderate Republicans left in Iowa, but I had the impression they were still plentiful in Delaware.
[ Parent ]
I think they've shown they are that stupid.
They've picked Miller, Buck, Scott, and Angle all of which are less likely to win the general election than their less conservative opponents.  
[ Parent ]
Well, to be fair about Alaska
Miller is still the favorite (granted it's a lot more competitive than it was, but still...)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
But, Lisa wouldn't have needed any party money
for her race. Miller is going to need party money to compete and that is money that could be spent in many other states instead.
[ Parent ]
Alaska's cheap
But your point is definitely correct and I'm mostly playing devil's advocate

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
That all depends on McAdams
Miller doesn't have a ton of CoH, but he has more than McAdams. He was also endorsed by Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund and the TPX, both of which will channel funds to him. If McAdams turns out to be a non-contender (and we'll know that within the next couple weeks from fundraising and poll numbers), Miller will not need party money because there will be no one to drive up his negatives and he will win in what is perceived as a generic R vs. generic D contest.

If, however, McAdams runs a serious campaign (which is I think SSP made a good call in directing money his way), Miller will either need to prove that he can do this on his own, or the NRSC will have to needlessly spend here.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Ah, sorry, I'm off topic
These primaries seem to overlap sometimes. I'll stick to Delaware.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
have you see their protest signs
they are this stupid

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
I have to say, one of the best things that would come out of an O'Donnell victory...
would be that Chris Coons, the one person that actually deserves the Senate seat, would win it. Not Mike Castle, because it's "his turn", not Beau Biden, because it was his dad's seat (but he'll just wait four years for Castle to retire kthxbye), but the one guy that's actually stuck his neck out when nobody else would dare challenge the "Delaware Way" and ran.
Amen

[ Parent ]
yes yes yes
I would love to see Coons pull this out for that very reason.
[ Parent ]
Yes.
    It's only too bad a progressive Democrat did not run.  I've read that Coons is rather conservative.  Thoughts?  Objections?

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
He looks pretty solid to me
http://www.chriscoons.com/issues/

He supports cap-and-trade, which jumped out at me. That's not something conservative Democrats like to talk about. He also voices support for the financial regulation and health care bills. He wouldn't be another Bernie Sanders, but he's definitely to the left of Tom Carper.

[ Parent ]
Being to the left
of Tom Carper is fine in Delaware.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Oh please, oh please...
Regarding the above, even if Castle did lose and try to get back on the House ticket (which, as others have said, I think is unlikely; he seemed pretty inclined either to the Senate or to retire, and if he outright loses the primary, I think he'll be smarting pretty bad), I think that would make him look kind of bad (tried to move up, failed, made a backroom deal to keep his old job).
PPP was right about Rick Scott in Florida, so . . . .
hopefully a repeat here.
Olympia Snowe
is watching.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
Regardless I'm still betting on a 2012 retirement for her
Dick Lugar meanwhile, well, let's see what happens. Especially since he has said he's running again.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
I don't think they'd dare
go after him. He would be much more likely to retire.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I have heard that Stutzman is thinking about it. nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He can try....
But I would bet he would lose. This could be a moot point though. Dick Lugar could choose to retire. If that were to happen I would for Vi Simpson to have a go.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I would put my money on a Lugar retirement. Vi Simpson is tempting but I would be in the Hill column.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Another viable option!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Haha.
Hoosierdem made his way into a RedState "Diary"

http://www.redstate.com/redtil...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

hoosier
This is the greatest compliment a SSPer can ever get.  wear this distinction proudly.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
haha
I will Mr. Tuttle, I will.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Cool! nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Guess who wrote it?
;)
[ Parent ]
double agent alert!


18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Ah, that makes sense
Forgive me for calling you a moron in my post below. I thought the post was written by Erickson or someone else who had previosly supported O'Donnell.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Trust me
I regret not writing that post long ago. I didn't think she was that much of a threat until this week.  
[ Parent ]
LOL
Clever screenname, too.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
Good Diary
You must be the voice of reason over there.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
UGH
Why didn't those morons realize this earlier? If RedState had put out a diary like that weeks ago, O'Donnell may have been down. Instead, it took until now for them to figure out nominating her was a bad move.

Nice as it is to have a blog for conservative netroots, they need to start making some better electoral decisions.

Jeremiah made it in too!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I don't know
how accurate RedState reflects the "Tea Party" or whatever you want to call it.

But there have been a bunch of people arguing for Castle over there.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
They're a hybrid
Sometimes the tea-party speaks, sometimes logic finds its way.  It's what makes them such a fascinating read.
[ Parent ]
Logic is drowned out
Arguing with facts with those people is like trying to Christine O'Donnell to pay her bills. What amazes me is that she epitomizes everything the Red Staters hate in government. She is greedy, she wants everything handed to her, she is not responsible with money, and she does not pay her own bills, but yet they love her.  
[ Parent ]
Kind of like it was OK
for Palin's daughter to have an illegitimate baby, but horrible when poor, black non-Republicans have them. It's that tribal identification thing that came up in this thread: It's OK because she's "one of us [them]."

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
you'll probably know more than i would
does red state have much influence over conservative activists?  it seems unlikely that a single blog could influence more than a small group of people, outside of the money they can raise for a candidate.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
They boast
of the being the first to endorse Rubio & Hoffman (NY-23)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I don't know
I'm not a big reader of RedState, especially not during primary season. But I'd say they have less influence over the base than say, Glenn Beck or Rush Limbaugh (despite Beck's rise to prominence, I would argue that Rush is still king when it comes to appealing to the GOP base.)

I see RedState a smaller DailyKos for the right. They attract a very strong following of flaming conservatives, but some readers think they take things a step too far. Their positions do tend to overlap with the TPX, which has far more power, but I'm not sure there's a causation factor there as much as there is a common goal for the two.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
They do
Erick Erickson is Jim DeMint's leader I think. Everyone DeMint endorses, he endorses first.  
[ Parent ]
Did Erickson endorse Jerry Moran or Todd Tiahrt?
because I remember that DeMint supported Moran because he lived with him at some point.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
They're panicking.
They saw what happened to Bill McCollum in Florida and now Alex Sink is in the driver's seat to become governor.
[ Parent ]
Oh God
That makes me want to create an account to prop up O'Donnell (not because I think it really matters, but just to annoy the RedStaters!)

Alas, the fact that I am actually not that much of an asshole prevents me :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Whoa, sockpuppetry?
I'm calling the Interwebs Police :)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Oh gee my account must have been hacked
Why I would never even consider such vile things :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I would lie if I didn't do that on RS
I actually advocated for Hayworth (sad to see him lose), O'Donnel and Ovide.  They all called me stupid for supporting people who couldn't win.

I eventually stopped, but I find it funny how they did all this crap to themselves.  I didn't even need to make a sock puppet account.

Also, there is no way I'm telling anyone what account it is.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I know you were kidding
And you said you wouldn't actually do it, but please don't discuss fucking with others people's blogs here. It's only likely to encourage people to want to fuck with us - and we truly don't want that.
[ Parent ]
Sorry David
I understand your concerns about it, and it won't happen again.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
NH poll out
Ayotte 37, Lamontagne 30, Bill Binnie 13, Jim Bender 12.

So how do you feel about spending $6 million to be tied for third, Bill?

The tea-party needs to let loose in New Hampshire too
You guys can't be half-assed in your craziness, you have to go full-tilt crazy and give it to another crazy right-winger.

Screw "electability", this is about insanity... er... principles!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, PPP says it doesn't matter
Their blog post: "Unlike Delaware it may not matter from a general election standpoint who the Republicans nominate in New Hampshire. Numbers we'll release later this week showed Ayotte and Lamontagne performing basically the same against Paul Hodes."
[ Parent ]
three things
one: can we change this to a thread that involves NH too, or at least start a new thread for it?  two: the normal dynamic has been tea party splits the conservative in a three plus way race vote and the moderate wins, but if one collapses, that could change.  three: how can you not vote for someone named Bender?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I predicted the tie for 3rd
I think Binnie will go the way of Steve Pagliuca, spending millions to come in last place.  
[ Parent ]
Haha
I've barely seen any Binnie ads, so I can't judge there, but Pagliuca ran perhaps the worst rich guy campaign ever. He flooded the airwaves but gave people no reason to vote for him, and eventually people just got sick of seeing him on TV all the time. His collapse led to Capuano's late surge.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
If Ayotte wins, it's because of Palin
If Palin had endorsed Lamontagne, we'd be seeing the same thing in NH as in DE. But Ayotte was conservative enough to merit "Mama Grizzly" status, and it looks like she just may weather the surge.

Two little things will help Ayotte: there are 7 candidates on the ballot and she is the only woman, and her name will appear second and Lamontagne's last.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Nah, if Ayotte wins it is because the anti-
Ayotte vote got split among three legitimate candidates unlike Delaware.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Lamontagne peaked too late
Ayotte wins.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Please keep off-topic chatter
confined to open threads. In any case, we have an NH-Sen post up on the FP where you are encouraged to move this discussion.
[ Parent ]
Good signs for Castle
Ya'll know im desperate.
1. I can't imagine OD getting 39% of liberal voters
2. 10% of moderates are undecided, less than the 7% of Conservatives
Only 3% of likely Voters...
... in the Republican Primary consider themselves Liberal.

The Liberal Republican vote is a non factor.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
yes
Those look like good finds on my third tequilla sunrise.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Sorry to burst your bubble GOPVOTER
1. Liberals are 3% of the sample, it just doesn't matter what they do.

2. Since conservatives make up 64% of the sample and moderates make up 33% of the sample, of the 8% of undecideds (if these numbers are all correct) conservatives make up 4.5% of them and moderates make up 3.5%.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
SHHHH!!!
My bubble has been bursted enough tonight. I was well aware of that, but it makes me fell better!  
[ Parent ]
Just make sure you have plenty of booze on Tuesday GOPVOTER
Whatever happens, you're gonna need it!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Unless . . .
these "liberal Republicans" are effectively Democratic voters on the federal level.  Like lots of "conservative Democrats" in Kentucky or Arkansas are effectively GOP voters in federal elections.  

In effect, these "liberal Republicans" may want a Dem victory and are supporting O'Donnell to sabotage GOP chances for a Senate pickup.  

[ Parent ]
Do average voters really do that?
Vote strategically in mass numbers?  It's been my impression that the opposite is more likely, that if Democrats are to vote in the Republican party it would be to support Castle, who has always been decently popular with Delaware Democrats.
[ Parent ]
Crossover voting would be very difficult...
This is really a closed/closed primary.  To vote in it, you must have registered as a republican prior to March of this year.  You don't get to pick your ballot at the polls.  If you wanted to vote in someone else's primary, you would have needed to have done it 6 months ago.  You can't get much more closed than that.
[ Parent ]
Updated projections on head-to-heads with Castle and O'Donnell...
Democrat - 45%
GOP - 34%
Independent - 21%

Castle - 23/97/58 = 55%
Coons - 77/3/42 = 45%

O'Donnell - 7/83/44 = 40%
Coons - 93/17/56 = 60%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

You
really think that Castle would get 97% of GOP voters?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I think the voter turnout split would be different
depending on who is nominated.  Also I think there will be some undervotes from Republicans.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
In the immortal words of Frank Barone: "Holy crap!"


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
what's funny
is that this one primary could determine who wins the senate.  it's possible for the republicans to win 10 seats now to reclaim the senate, but 12, this late would be more seats won in a single election since 1980

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
i mean 11
would have corrected myself earlier, but i was watching the season premiere of Venture Bros.  awesomeness.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Republicans would still only have to win 10
Delaware just wouldn't be one of those 10. It would be a Democratic hold.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
right, whoops
still, reducing a seat from their potential take overs will make it that much harder.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
If O'Donnell wins, it would have to be ND, AR, IN, CO, PA, IL, WI, CA, WA, and NV. Less room for error, and you would have to win all four of the last seats I list, which I consider Lean D for now. WV or CT could become competitive, though, which would slightly make up for this disaster.

Of course, the GOP also has to hold NH, KY, MO, OH, and (gulp) AK.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
ND, AR and IN are in the bag already
Colorado begs the question of whether turnout will be low thanks to Maes being the gubernatorial nominee, which would conversely mean that Hickenlooper would have a coattail effect on Bennett.  Nothing set in stone, but it's not a pickup just yet and might be one of those trending away from the GOP.

Illinois is the exact opposite, where the gubernatorial nominee for the Democrats is probably going to have a negative effect on the turnout.  Of course, voters seem to hate both nominees, so it's up in the air.

If I had to put money down on Dems winning any of those GOP seats, I'd be wagering on Kentucky.  Fisher doesn't have the money to run against Portman, there's no movement for Carnahan in MO, and Hodes isn't doing so hot in NH.  Alaska depends on the ground game and it's apparently hard to poll so there's nothing to comment on for that.  

[ Parent ]
Right
They'd have to invest in WV then.  
[ Parent ]
And Connecticut


38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
McMahon's got that covered
They don't need to spend there. Spend a million in WV painting Manchin as a liberal, while Raese defines himself and also attacks Manchin, I think he could win.  
[ Parent ]
Better way to use that money would be to go and attack Feingold
Top of the ticket looks really weak in Wisconsin right now and Feingold's never run away with an election.  On the other hand I think his opponent's rich so I don't know if it'd be worth the while.  

If I were GOP I'd look at WA too, since neither side has really defined the other, contrary to other races.  Reid's already done a good job painting Angle as crazy, Boxer has a treasure trove against Fiorina, who's only shot at winning now relies solely on Whitman ramping up turnout, and it's a virtual deadlock over ethics fails in Illinois right now.  WV has pretty good support for Manchin, so unless a dead girl live boy thing gets uncovered, it's highly inconceivable that anything the GOP can do will be able to dent something like a 60% approval rating.

[ Parent ]
Money is not an issue in Connecticut
Finding a way to convince 50%+1 people to vote for a wrestling exec over their Attorney General is the issue. Who knows, McMahon has run a good enough campaign that it's at least a sleeper race at this point.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
The one thing that
Makes me happy about that race is she has not started hitting him hard yet and she is keeping it a single digit race. Once she starts hitting him hard, I think this race become much closer.  
[ Parent ]
I don't think you guys can really win the senate without Delaware though
You'd still have to win several states where you guys aren't really favored to win (IL, NV, CA, WA, WI) and still not lose your open seats (NH, OH, KY, MO are still not totally foregone conclusions yet).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
in my opinion
mo pretty much is

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Crazy
Looking quickly at his bio, I think this would be the first race Castle ever lost in 40 years of public service. If this pans out, it would be quite a sad and inglorious end to his career.

I'm pretty sure he'd just fade away and not even make an endorsement should he lose; at least it's a good market to buy down in Florida.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

.
Unfortunate, but true.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
.
Unfortunate, but true.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Yeah lets leave a little piece of the celebration behind
to reflect on what it means for civility and the possibility of colaitional politics when people like Castle go down to what ODonnell represents, tactically and ideologically.  
[ Parent ]
Amen! n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I saw this coming, and it makes me sad despite being a Dem
It wasn't just Palin and DeMint endorsing her (although I figured they wouldn't have done so without some hint she was going to win), it was also that Limbaugh and Hannity both are clearly backing her as well.

But it makes me sad that a loathsome figure like Christine O'Donnell can be the nominee of a major party and beat out a halfway respectable Republican like Castle. I know it probably says more about how much the Republican party has shrunk in Delaware, but I just can't believe anyone would turn out for thie woman. If I were in Delaware, I'd be tempted to register Republican just to vote for Castle and prevent her from having any triumph.

That said, our Republican commentators who are holding out any hope on this one are delusional, sorry to say. She's got the momentum, and Castle supporters are going to be dispirited bunch come tomorrow.  

Scares me
power isn't just the number of seats. Sometimes its wielded by changing the limits of acceptable discourse, deterring compromise, and simply displaying symbolic power outside the context of public policy. I cried when Obama was elected, and not just because the policies of the USFG would be reoriented, but because I thought my country had changed. And if five people like this woman are elected, I might just cry again, and not because their votes are that different from the republicans they've replaced. This must be like what the French center-left felt when extreme natonalists finished second in 2002.
[ Parent ]
THIS!!
"power isn't just the number of seats. Sometimes its wielded by changing the limits of acceptable discourse, deterring compromise, and simply displaying symbolic power outside the context of public policy."

SO TRUE

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
Oh please please please let COD win this thing...
This should serve as a valuable lesson to the GOP. You cannot unring the bell after you've catered to a seething, activist base that bristles at the idea of a relative moderate, even if he's a well-established, many times elected figure in liberal Delaware.  
Wow
Unbelievable.  I had figured O'Donnell would be lucky to get a third of the vote.  Even if Castle does end up winning with like 55% of the vote that's still a huge surprise, and a ridiculously low score from a long-term congressman and former governor.

I can't believe that Delaware Republicans have so truly gone over the edge that they would prefer a perennial candidate to their sole representative in Congress.

This is big
This isn't actually 'that' big of a surprise, about a week and a half or so ago the Tea Party did a poll showing it 44-38 in favor of Castle.  Basicly in that time O'Donnell got better known (thanks in no small part to Castle's huge negative ad campaign, that clearly backfired) and went from 38 to 47, while Castle stayed at the same 44 he had all along.  Since he's probably the best known politician in the state, its hard to see a bunch of voters suddenly switching to him at the last minute.  I think O'Donnell is going to keep gaining, she could end up winning this thing by a fair margin, with Castle not being able to get above 44. As a bigtime O'Donnell fan, I hope so anyway :) .  
The Tea Party Express
Saving the Democratic Senate majority one seat at a time! Haven't read other comments yet so likely others have said this but since PPP were rewarded for going out on a limb in Florida am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt here. I guess teh crazy extends to every state which is why no teabagger will stand aside for Castle in the House race either.
This poll is scary
If this poll is accurate, and I have nothing but respeot for PPP so I don't doubt their work, I am scratching my head on how the Delaware Republican party could support O'Donnell over Castle.  Castle is an establishment within Delaware, and his nomination would have given the Republicans an excellent opportunity to pick up a seat in a blue state.  O'Donnell has almost no chance of defeating Coons in the general election.  In addition, I think Castle is a rather good fit amongst Delaware Republicans.

If Castle wins the primary, he might be bloodied, giving Coons a small opportunity to surge.  If he loses, I'd rank this seat as "Likely Dem" in a matchup between Coons and O'Donnell (I'd almost put it as "Safe Dem").

Teabaggers gone wild.  We should have a video on this phenomena.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Don't forget
She could get 20% as a write-in which would certainly hand the seat to Coons.
[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: O'Donnell Leads Castle in New PPP Poll | 227 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox