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Political Cowardice/Self-Preservation Rewarded - The "Yes" and "No" votes on Health Care.

by: spiderdem

Sat Sep 11, 2010 at 1:49 PM EDT


The Democrats who voted against Health Care Reform are very well situated for re-election, considering that they are almost all from red districts.  Those plucky kids who voted for it in tough districts, not so much.  Not going to comment on the overall political wisdom of the vote (who knows where we'd be if HCR had failed), but the numbers tell a pretty clear story and it is an interesting aspect of the coming election (at least to me).

Here are the "no" votes on HCR.  Of the 34, 20 are up in the latest poll.  Only 2 (Edwards and Nye) are down.  One (Space) is tied.  The other 11 are either not running or there is no polling.  

AL-02 - Bright - up 9 in DCCC poll.
AL-07 - Davis - not running.
AR-01 - Berry - not running.
AR-04 - Ross - up 18 in public polling.
ID-01 - Minnick - up 23 in public polling.
GA-08 - Marshall - up 6 in Republican internal.
GA-12 - Barrow - no polling.
IL-03 - Lipinski - no polling.
KY-06 - Chandler - up 14 in public polling.
LA-03 - Melancon - not running.
MA-09 - Lynch - no polling.
MD-01 - Kratovil - up 5 in Dem internal.
MN-07 - Peterson - no polling.
MO-04 - Skelton - up 12 in public poll.
MS-01 - Childers - up 5 in Dem internal.
MS-04 - Taylor - no polling.
NJ-03 - Adler - up 6 in public poll.
NC-07 - McIntyre - up 7 in public polling.
NC-08 - Kissell - up 17 in Dem internal.
NC-11 - Shuler - up 17 in Dem internal.
NM-02 - Teague - up 3 in public poll.
NY-13 - McMahon - up 33 in Dem internal.
NY-24 - Arcuri - up 13 in DCCC poll.
OH-18 - Space - tied in Republican internal.
OK-02 - Boren - up 34 in Dem internal.
PA-04 - Altmire - up 27 in DCCC poll.
PA-17 - Holden - no polling.
SD-AL - Herseth-Sandlin - up 2 in public poll.
TN-04 - Davis - up 11 in Republican internal.
TN-08 - Tanner - not running.
TX-17 - Edwards - down 12 in Republican internal.
UT-02 - Matheson - no polling.
VA-02 - Nye - down 6 in Republican internal.
VA-09 - Boucher - up 10 in public poll.

By comparison, here are the 39 Democratic House members in Republican PVI districts who voted for the bill.  Of these, only 7 are up in the latest poll.  15 are down.  5 are tied.  The other 12 are either not running or there is no polling.

AZ-01 - Kirkpatrick - tied in Republican internal.
AZ-05 - Mitchell - down 6 in conservative poll.
AZ-08 - Giffords - tied in conservative poll.
AR-02 - Snyder - not running.
CA-11 - McNerney - up 1 in conservative poll.
CO-03 - Salazar - down 8 in conservative poll.
CO-04 - Markey - tied in Dem internal.
FL-02 - Boyd - down 15 in Republican internal.
FL-08 - Grayson - up 13 in Dem internal.
FL-24 - Kosmas - down 12 in Republican internal.
IL-08 - Bean - tied in conservative poll.
IL-11 - Halvorson - down 20 in conservative poll.
IL-14 - Foster - down 7 in conservative poll.
IN-02 - Donnelly - up 2 in conservative poll.
IN-08 - Ellsworth - not running.
IN-09 - Hill - up 7 in Republican internal.
KS-03 - Moore - not running.
MI-01 - Stupak - not running.
MI-07 - Schauer - down 8 in conservative poll.
MN-01 - Walz - no polling.
NY-19 - Hall - no polling.
NY-20 - Murphy - up 5 in conservative poll.
NY-23 - Owens - up 2 in conservative poll.
NY-29 - Massa - not running.
NC-02 - Etheridge - down 1 in public poll.
ND-AL - Pomeroy - down 9 in public poll.
OH-06 - Wilson - no polling.
OH-16 - Boccieri - down 14 in conservative poll.
PA-03 - Dahlkemper - down 14 in conservative poll.
PA-10 - Carney - down 15 in conservative poll.
PA-12 - Murtha - not running.
SC-05 - Spratt - tied in Republican internal.
TN-06 - Gordon - not running.
TX-23 - Rodriguez - down 6 in Republican internal.
TX-27 - Ortiz - no polling.
VA-05 - Periello - down 2 in Dem internal.
WV-01 - Mollohan - not running.
WV-03 - Rahall - up 16 in conservative poll.
WI-08 - Kagen - down 10 in conservative poll.
spiderdem :: Political Cowardice/Self-Preservation Rewarded - The "Yes" and "No" votes on Health Care.
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Political Cowardice/Self-Preservation Rewarded - The "Yes" and "No" votes on Health Care. | 21 comments
The conservaDems
The ConservaDems are going to largely hold on where as the moderates will be slaughtered it appears.

I would be curious what the analysis looks like if you do the same thing for every district that is Even to D+5.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

Hard to draw a contrast in that range
As 99 percent of Dems in that range voted for it.  May take a look though.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Barrow's the only one
In that range who voted against it.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Thanks
I was just curious.  I figured a few more in that range would have voted against it.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I
don't mind some of the nay votes. If Gene Taylor had voted yes he would be done. Same with Minnick or Bright and many conservadems. I thanks the ones who are risking their jobs to better the country. What makes me mad is ones from safe districts who voted against it. Cough Stephen Lynch cough.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
i think the only dems that
progressives should really try to primary in 2012 are stephen lynch, jane harman, and dan lipinski. if they focus all energy on those three, they could make a difference, and i'm sure the areas they represent all have viable state senators or something.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Lynch
is getting a challenger now. I am not sure what his chances are though. Anyone have updates on that? Lipinski is someone who I hate. Not just his ideology, although that is a big part of it but also do to the way he slimed his way in. He deserves a challenge badly. We keep working on getting one for Harman but have never been successful.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
D'Alessandro is running a good campaign
I haven't seen a poll, but I think it's very unlikely that Lynch goes down. However, that isn't for lack of effort, as the unions have been very active in support of D'Alessandro and he has been out campaigning hard despite his fundraising disadvantage. Neither candidate is on the air, but I did hear an anti-Lynch radio spot a couple weeks ago from a third-party group (perhaps a union, I couldn't tell.)

Nevertheless, Lynch is a pretty good fit for this district, which has a lot of moderate Catholic Democrats. I wouldn't rule out a surprise, but it would be a of a Joe Miller-in-Alaska degree.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Not
Lieberman?  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
That goes without saying. nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
i meant
the house. but he's also not really a dem

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
This is a totally two-faced dilemma
On one hand, if more democrats would have voted against health care reform, they might be in better shape for re-election.  

On the other hand, it only passed 220-215, so with 3 more no votes the bill would have been defeated, denying Obama and the Democrats one of their major policy goals.  

So it's a question of what you rather want, do you want to keep a strong majority, or do you want to use your political capital to pass important legislation?  I'd side with the latter, but that's a debate probably not best served for SSP.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Totally right
I bet Earl Pomeroy is wishing it had been 219-216 right about now.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I
am going to go out on a limb and say that had HCR had never happened we would be doing almost just as bad as we are doing now. I think many of the people we have doomed soley for voting for HCR would probably still have lost regardless do to the unemployment rate. While it is true that HCR got the Republicans energized the stimulus and the Obama presidency did as well. I think HCR has hurt us slightly but the same independents who are upset over HCR  and voting GOP probably would have voted GOP just because of the economic conditions. Just my view though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I agree.
n/t

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Agree
HCR is not the reason the Democrats are going to lose the majority.  It might sink a few members, but if the bill was not passed, the base would be more disheartened.  The economy is hurting the Democrats far more and I think we are seeing a natural correction after two terms of strong Democratic gains.  Additionally, with the focus being on economic issues, some of the seats the Democrats gained over the last few terms are likely to go back to their previous ways.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Totally disagree
Talked to too many rank and file Democrats (not far-left types) who are unhappy with HCR and are either planning to vote Republican or not vote at all. It's not just Republicans and Independents turning on the party.
[ Parent ]
Max Baucus
should be credited with most of these losses. It's because of those closed door stuff in July, that then created the fear of what might be in the bill in August and things went downhill from there.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Baucus was following orders
He's not the President or the Majority Leader of the Senate.
[ Parent ]
This is not
a good forum to get into a discussion about this, I think. (a little too much policy).

But if Max Baucus hadn't stretched the whole healthcare thing into the fall, Obama's "honeymoon" wouldn't have ended in August of 2009. (How low it might be right now because of the lousy economic recovery and whatever else is up for debate.) The town hall stuff would also not have occurred.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
They're parasites.
They leech off of limited Democratic resources (money, committee assignments, etc.) and then benefit from opposing, obstructing, stalling, and watering down the Democratic agenda or supporting the Republican agenda.

And in the process, the rest of the party suffers as the promise this presidency and Congress had fails to materialize.  Rank and file Democrats have become disillusioned at the impotence of these huge majorities we've worked to build.  Republicans are fired up, angry at the very suggestion of progressive legislation and a black/Democratic President, now smell blood.  

Republican talking points are given bipartisan support and the air of "moderation."  Democratic messaging is undermined both by having "Democrats" arguing Republican memes and talking points but also from having "Democrats in disarray" stories.  Attempts at remotely progressive legislation is stalled, allowing the conservatives to use their resources to beat it to death and drive down Democratic approvals.


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Political Cowardice/Self-Preservation Rewarded - The "Yes" and "No" votes on Health Care. | 21 comments

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