The Democrats who voted against Health Care Reform are very well situated for re-election, considering that they are almost all from red districts. Those plucky kids who voted for it in tough districts, not so much. Not going to comment on the overall political wisdom of the vote (who knows where we'd be if HCR had failed), but the numbers tell a pretty clear story and it is an interesting aspect of the coming election (at least to me).
Here are the "no" votes on HCR. Of the 34, 20 are up in the latest poll. Only 2 (Edwards and Nye) are down. One (Space) is tied. The other 11 are either not running or there is no polling.
AL-02 - Bright - up 9 in DCCC poll.
AL-07 - Davis - not running.
AR-01 - Berry - not running.
AR-04 - Ross - up 18 in public polling.
ID-01 - Minnick - up 23 in public polling.
GA-08 - Marshall - up 6 in Republican internal.
GA-12 - Barrow - no polling.
IL-03 - Lipinski - no polling.
KY-06 - Chandler - up 14 in public polling.
LA-03 - Melancon - not running.
MA-09 - Lynch - no polling.
MD-01 - Kratovil - up 5 in Dem internal.
MN-07 - Peterson - no polling.
MO-04 - Skelton - up 12 in public poll.
MS-01 - Childers - up 5 in Dem internal.
MS-04 - Taylor - no polling.
NJ-03 - Adler - up 6 in public poll.
NC-07 - McIntyre - up 7 in public polling.
NC-08 - Kissell - up 17 in Dem internal.
NC-11 - Shuler - up 17 in Dem internal.
NM-02 - Teague - up 3 in public poll.
NY-13 - McMahon - up 33 in Dem internal.
NY-24 - Arcuri - up 13 in DCCC poll.
OH-18 - Space - tied in Republican internal.
OK-02 - Boren - up 34 in Dem internal.
PA-04 - Altmire - up 27 in DCCC poll.
PA-17 - Holden - no polling.
SD-AL - Herseth-Sandlin - up 2 in public poll.
TN-04 - Davis - up 11 in Republican internal.
TN-08 - Tanner - not running.
TX-17 - Edwards - down 12 in Republican internal.
UT-02 - Matheson - no polling.
VA-02 - Nye - down 6 in Republican internal.
VA-09 - Boucher - up 10 in public poll.
By comparison, here are the 39 Democratic House members in Republican PVI districts who voted for the bill. Of these, only 7 are up in the latest poll. 15 are down. 5 are tied. The other 12 are either not running or there is no polling.
AZ-01 - Kirkpatrick - tied in Republican internal.
AZ-05 - Mitchell - down 6 in conservative poll.
AZ-08 - Giffords - tied in conservative poll.
AR-02 - Snyder - not running.
CA-11 - McNerney - up 1 in conservative poll.
CO-03 - Salazar - down 8 in conservative poll.
CO-04 - Markey - tied in Dem internal.
FL-02 - Boyd - down 15 in Republican internal.
FL-08 - Grayson - up 13 in Dem internal.
FL-24 - Kosmas - down 12 in Republican internal.
IL-08 - Bean - tied in conservative poll.
IL-11 - Halvorson - down 20 in conservative poll.
IL-14 - Foster - down 7 in conservative poll.
IN-02 - Donnelly - up 2 in conservative poll.
IN-08 - Ellsworth - not running.
IN-09 - Hill - up 7 in Republican internal.
KS-03 - Moore - not running.
MI-01 - Stupak - not running.
MI-07 - Schauer - down 8 in conservative poll.
MN-01 - Walz - no polling.
NY-19 - Hall - no polling.
NY-20 - Murphy - up 5 in conservative poll.
NY-23 - Owens - up 2 in conservative poll.
NY-29 - Massa - not running.
NC-02 - Etheridge - down 1 in public poll.
ND-AL - Pomeroy - down 9 in public poll.
OH-06 - Wilson - no polling.
OH-16 - Boccieri - down 14 in conservative poll.
PA-03 - Dahlkemper - down 14 in conservative poll.
PA-10 - Carney - down 15 in conservative poll.
PA-12 - Murtha - not running.
SC-05 - Spratt - tied in Republican internal.
TN-06 - Gordon - not running.
TX-23 - Rodriguez - down 6 in Republican internal.
TX-27 - Ortiz - no polling.
VA-05 - Periello - down 2 in Dem internal.
WV-01 - Mollohan - not running.
WV-03 - Rahall - up 16 in conservative poll.
WI-08 - Kagen - down 10 in conservative poll.