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CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Close Senate Race, Brown Lagging In Gov Race

by: Crisitunity

Thu Sep 09, 2010 at 10:10 AM EDT


Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 48
Carly Fiorina (R): 44
Undecided: 3

Jerry Brown (D): 46
Meg Whitman (R): 48
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)

Yesterday's onslaught of CNN/Time polls has a California component, and it's a split verdict: Barbara Boxer is squeaking by in the Senate race, while Jerry Brown is behind Meg Whitman by a small margin. While it's tempting to say "oh, those Senate numbers are pretty good," as with the other CNN polls, bear in mind that this is a registered voter poll. While it's not clear how much of an enthusiasm gap we're looking at in California compared with other states, it's reasonable to expect that an LV screen would yield results at least a few points worse.

If you're looking for interesting numbers from the crosstabs, what's keeping Carly Fiorina in this is how well she's doing with women: Boxer leads among women only 48-43. (OK, maybe it's not that amazing, considering that Fiorina is also a woman, which is probably why the NRSC thought she'd be a good matchup in the first place.) What's keeping Jerry Brown in this, even more counterintuitively, is how well he's doing with people over 50: he actually leads among oldsters, 49-47, while trailing among the under-50s 48-45. (So maybe that "remember the 70s, when things didn't suck so much?" advertising scheme makes sense in that context.)

SurveyUSA for KABC-TV (8/31-9/1, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (42)
Carly Fiorina (R): 48 (47)
Undecided: 1 (11)

Jerry Brown (D): 40 (43)
Meg Whitman (R): 47 (44)
Undecided: 4 (13)
(MoE: ±4.2%)

Then there's SurveyUSA's poll from over the weekend; SurveyUSA has given Fiorina the lead in its last three polls and (with the exception of the most recent Rasmussen) is the only pollster to give her a lead. Assuming that these pollsters are polling essentially similar populations (and that's a pretty big assumption), one might infer that the enthusiasm gap between RVs and LVs is worth about 5-6 points in California.

SurveyUSA has some better news down the ballot, although these two races also seem to have gotten closer than previous polls: Gavin Newsom leads the Lt. Governor race over Abel Maldonado, 44-39, while Proposition 19 (for the legalization and regulation of marijuana) is passing, 47-43.
Crisitunity :: CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Close Senate Race, Brown Lagging In Gov Race
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CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Close Senate Race, Brown Lagging In Gov Race | 65 comments
In California
 I have been making calls to young voters to get them interested. I am calling all registered Democrats but even so, almost everyone I talked to plans to vote and plans to vote Democratic. A good number of them are not too familiar with the candidates but they plan on voting Democratic so that's good. I guess Brown has to introduce himself more to the younger voters.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Thank you!
We really need all those Dems to get out and VOTE! As long as they do, Boxer will win and Brown will have a good chance to win.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
And
there's a Meg Whitman net ad as I'm posting right now...

Jesus Christ. I wonder when Boxer and Fiorina are going on the air. (Karl Rove's 527 has already been on the air attacking Boxer down in LA.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Airtime
Is there any airtime left for them to purchase?  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Airtime
Is there any airtime left for them to purchase?  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I remain confident that Boxer will win
Brown, I don't know.  And frankly don't care all that much since I do remember the 70s, and that Brown was, in many ways, the original "New" Democrat.
Whitman scares me, so I'd still vote Brown...
If I still lived in Cali. Arnold has been an EPIC FAIL in so many ways, and IMHO I don't know if California can afford another Governor who wants to slash and burn the state.

However, I'm still confident Boxer will win the Senate race. She's survived tough elections before ('92 and '98), so I know they're figuring out how to do so again this year.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I would like to amend a response to a topic a few days ago.
Remember when Esau asked which candidates winning that would be silver linings for us if we lost big elsewhere and which candidates winning would be flies in the ointment if we won big?  I would like to amend my gubernatorial responses.  I had said that Barnes winning GA-Gov would be a silver lining but Deal winning would be a fly in the ointment.  I'm switching those answers to Brown and Whitman, respectively.  

I want the redistricting trifecta in California.  Obama won way too many Republican-held districts for us not to take advantage, including stacking the deck.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Agree
I have to agree with you there as the deck is likely going to be stacked in PA, MI, OH and TX with Republicans favored in those states. I hate the gerrymandering process but it is what it is. If we can win in CA and FL and do what we can there it should help a bit.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
I don't think it's that bad in those other states
I think we should at least get a piece of the trifecta or have a good shot at it.  Plus, they're already Republican gerrymanders.  Plus again, I would imagine we'll get something out of Texas regardless.  But winning the Governor's mansion in California gives us full control, no bipartisan gerrymanders, no "fair fights."

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
If only that were true (might be...)
  California's redistricting system is up in the air at this point. Currently there is a redistricting commission set up by Prop 11 (2008) which will do legislative but not congressional redistricting. There are competing measures on the ballot: Prop 20 would extend the "nonpartisan" commission's work to include the congressional remap. Prop 27 would scrap the commission completely, giving the power back to the Legislature. The trifecta could give us nothing or everything as far as the redistricting. If I were a betting man I would put money on both 20 and 27 losing, leaving us where we are (which wouldn't be bad for our House delegation.)

  Brown, with all his imperfections, would still be a hell of a lot better than having Queen Meg as the Head of State. Jerry is quirky and unpredictable enough that it will be interesting. Meg would just be horrible...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Regarding PA/MI/OH/TX
If things break okay for the Democrats, it's possible that the Republicans may not get the trifecta in any of these states.  

PA - With the governor's race likely lost, the democrats will have to hold their advantage in the state house.  They currently lead 104-99.  With only 3 seats needed to flip control, I think the republicans should be able to do that unless Sestak is able to come back and win the Senate race and things go well downballot.  

TX - The Texas house stands at a 77-73 GOP lead at the moment, meaning 3 democratic pickups flips control.  With Bill White running fairly strong in the governor's race, it's possible that some house candidates could piggyback on that.  Still, I don't see this as all that likely either.  

OH - There's two options here, either hold the governorship, which is looking less likely, or hold the advantage in the state house, where democrats lead 53-46.  The two are fairly tied together.  If Strickland runs close to Kasich, even if he loses, I think the chances of a hold of the majority are better than 50/50.  The problem for the republicans is that there aren't a whole lot of vulnerable dem-held seats here.  I'll have a diary on the Ohio state house before too long.  

MI - This one I feel good about.  The governorship is gone, but the Democrats hold a huge advantage in the Michigan House, and the republicans would have to flip 10 seats or thereabout to flip control.  Yeah, good luck with that.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
I agree on Michigan
The only way the House flips is if Democrats completely give up on the governor's race and labor makes no effort to mobilize voters. With Bernero on the ballot, the latter is unlikely to happen even if Snyder pulls away, so downballot Dems should be OK.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
The House is definitely in play
The state GOP has a lot of money to play with, and it's looking less and less likely that they'll need it for any of the top-of-the-ballot races (with the exception of the Supreme Court races). As a result, they'll be able to more than overcome the Dems' money advantage in the state house races. Such races are also heavily driven by the national mood, since many voters don't really know their state reps at all. With a big R wave forming nationally, and a potentially even larger one in Michigan, there's still a very significant chance that the House could flip in MI
[ Parent ]
ive got OH memorized now
State legislative control doesn't matter in OH for redistricting bc its done as a committee and its always a Dem and a GOPer from that branch of gov.  The other spots are Gov, SoS, and Auditor.
[ Parent ]
just be aware
the the 5-seat committee only applies to state legislative redistricting.  Congressional redistricting comes down to state house, state senate, and governor, just like any other state.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
sigh
just when I thought I had it down.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks!
Stephen - Thanks for the great analysis. Looks like there should at least be some type of check to what the GOP would want to do as far a redistricting. Given a split in Florida as well that is an okay situation for me. I just hate things to be so gerrymandered that you have few competitive districts. Ohio is amazingly gerrymandered as is Florida. Texas is as well but it reflects their voting patterns much more. Regardless of what happens in 2010 it will be a very narrow margin for whoever controls the House. Redistricting is going to have a big impact on how things turn out along with how strong Obama's/GOP Nominee's coattails will be so it will likely be another stiff battle for control of the House again.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
PA-House
It is very likely the Republicans will retake the State House simply because there are too many open seats in swing areas and the remarkable gains the Democrats made in 2006 and 2008.  I suspect the Republicans will gain 5 to 10 seats in the State House based off some of the previous estimates.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
thanks ryan
I wasn't aware that there were lots of open seats in swing areas of Pennsylvania.  That's going to favor the GOP.  You don't really have that dynamic in Ohio, there's very few open seats there except in extremely GOP/Dem parts of the state b/c of term limits.  

Hard to think that the Ohio house would be an easier hold than the Pennsylvania house, but given the open seat situation and the fact that the governor/senate races are currently closer in OH, that's what we're seeing.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
MI-Gov
Michigan isn't gone yet.  Most polls show Snyder leading but there are at least 20% undecided.  So the public likes Snyder (so far) but many are still uncertain.    

The Michigan Democratic Party launched its campaign today with its first ad criticizing Snyder's business career.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

The outsourcing criticisms worked in 2006 and will be effective in 2010 too.  Snyder may still win but it will be much closer than polls currently show.  

[ Parent ]
CA redistricting
Isn't that done by a commission now?
[ Parent ]
IIRC, that's only for the state legislature.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Oh, okay
But didn't after 2000 both parties reached an "incumbents' protection" plan, which didn't change any seats even though Democrats were in control?
[ Parent ]
Again, IIRC, previous elections saw a large gain of seats for Dems
There were several pickups for Democrats in the Congressional delegation.  So, Democrats were looking to protect what they already had.  This time, every Democratic seat other than McNerney and maybe a couple others looks pretty safe.  

(*In both cases, I defer to someone with more knowledge of California political history than I).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
You're pretty much right.
No one expected those districts that had to be shored up would eventually go strongly for the Democrat in presidential races. They were very marginal in the 90s and could have easily been lost in a year like 2002; with Davis unpopular, there would have been a real chance of some Republican gains had we not gone the "incumbent protection" route. Plus we also had to save slimy DINO Gary "Gang of 5" Condit (Google condit gang of 5), though he did lose the primary to Cardoza, who seems a little better.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
At the moment, yeah
However, Proposition 20 would transfer Congressional redistricting to the commission as well.  So there won't really be a final answer until after Election Day.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)
[ Parent ]
Democrats: Which would you rather win if you could only have one?
Obviously, most everyone on here wants to see both Boxer and Brown pull through on election night. But if the races split, which would you rather have: CA-Sen, because Boxer is a strong progressive and a fave of so many on here,  or CA-Gov, giving you complete control of Sacramento?

For me, I think it comes down to whether the fair districts initiative passes or not.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Boxer


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Boxer
Honestly, if I were a Californian, I'd vote Whitman and Boxer.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I've completely on board with Boxer
But Brown and Whitman I've been going back and forth with.

A good friend of mine is excited about Whitman.

The fact, though, that she's saturating the airwaves with campaign drivel deflates any sense of enthusiasm for her candidacy.

Brown is a classic retread. I'm pretty pro-Labor and pro-government employee unions (read: 'cause I work in local government).

This one might end up being a coin-flip.

[ Parent ]
Brown
Him winning can mean control of the House, which to me is more important than the senate where it's all just a crap shoot to get to 60 now anyway.
[ Parent ]
Boxer
I am not sure how much extra there is in the CA House to squeeze out. Right now there are 19 Republicans and 34 Democrats; a 65% split for Democrats. In 2008 Obama took 61% of the vote there.

I would defer to someone who knows CA better then me but are there any easier districts that could be gerrymandered out? If there wasn't an easy answer to wash out at least 3 seats I would say keeping Boxer is much better.


28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Remember, though, that Obama carried several Republican-held districts there.
I'm sure there are ways to lower margins in some uber-Democratic districts to give to Republican-held districts or combine Democratic areas from adjacent Republican districts.  The fact that Democratic strength seems to now be moving eastward (ie. more directions to pull Democratic strength from.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yes it is definitely possible
to gerrymander more Democratic district out of the current marginal Obama-Republican districts. A quick glance brought me 6 seats that could be gerrymandered with little effort.

- We could shift McNerney's (CA-11) district a bit more toward Contra Costa and Alameda.

- Make Gallegly's (CA-24) district entirely within Ventura County and adding some heavily Democratic precincts from western L.A. County, while at the same time moderating Capps's (CA-23) district a little by shifting as much of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties into it.

- Move some heavily Democratic parts of eastern L.A. County (ie. Pomona) into Dreier's (CA-26) district

- Remove that slice of OC in Calvert's (CA-44) district

- Tack on Imperial County to Bono Mack's district (CA-45)

- Put in a little bit of urban San Diego into Bilbray's (CA-50) district

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Boxer
Not a contest.
[ Parent ]
Brown
I like Boxer, but besides redistricting I don't think E-Meg would be a good governor (I think she'd be the Termindator Redux), and I think California is too important of state to the rest of the country to have someone inexperienced running it. Plus, I think Brown would be able to work with the legislature to pass some much needed reforms.

I want them both to win, but I'll be crushed if Brown loses this.  

[ Parent ]
To clarify
I meant: Besdies the fact that if Brown won, Dems would control redistricting. Didn't mean to imply I thought redistricting would be a reason to vote for Meg.  
[ Parent ]
This should be a tough question only for California residents. For the rest of us...
...no-brainer, we need Boxer to win.

California is so heavily Democratic that we're always going to be in good shape in Congressional races.  A seat here, a seat there, all minor.

But the Senate seat is for the next 6 long years, and it's a big shift to lose Boxer and have Fiorina there.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Boxer
Most definitely.

http://mypolitikal.com/
[ Parent ]
Boxer...
Her campaign gets it. They're fighting for it, and in the end I think she'll get the win she deserves.

However, I'm not giving up on Brown yet. His campaign may not be the best, but IMHO he's doing something right if he's at least keeping it close.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Obviously Boxer
Federal trumps State. Polling totality here suggests she leads by a bit, Whitman by a bit more. Considering Jerry Brown is only now going up with ads and that they have three debates this isn't as bad as it may seem.
[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday California!
  Today is the Ninth of September, which is the least known holiday on the calendar. Admission Day marks the day in 1850 that California became the 31st state of the Union. If you asked 100 Californians you might find one who is aware of the day (but only if I am one of the hundred, lol). Let's just say that California nationalism is just a little bit less prevalent than Texas or Alaska nationalism...

 Huzzah for the mighty Bear Flag Republic!

   (and also for Boxer, Brown, Bowen, Chiang, Dave Jones, and all the rest...)

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

I never knew
I never knew this, and I get a day off from work every year because of it.

Thanks!

[ Parent ]
Yeah!
Happy 160th, most awesome state!

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
And, to celebrate the occasion...


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
and here I thought the anthem was either
   "Oh Susannah", "California Here I Come", or "California Uber Alles" !  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
"California, Here I Come" was considered.
I wish that had become the anthem, as it is widely recognized while "I Love You, California" is not known by many. Even I (embarrassingly) did not know until I looked up official state songs.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
CA has so many ballot propositions
someone should do one to change the state song to California Here I Come. That's not as silly as many of them.
[ Parent ]
state song
The only appropriate state song given the current condition of the state budget is "I Wanna Be Sedated" by the Ramones.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
What?!
You mean this isn't our state anthem?  ;-)


[ Parent ]
What about California Love
or, dare I even say it, California Gurls? (californianintexas, is it true you're undeniable and unforgettable?)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah! lol


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Happy birthday California!
 It's a little late but I still need to celebrate my favorite state.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
i knew that
but totally forgot. 160 today! woo.
also, i feel like asking, even though most of you don't care about state races. for the cali residents: if i have to campaign for either brown or boxer, which should i campaign for. i say boxer cuz i don't really mind whitman too much, policy-wise, and we still have a dem state legislature, but it would be nice for brown and redistricting.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
The key to success is
   Democratic GOTV! Find a local campaign office and help out Boxer, Brown and all the others. You don't have to choose Boxer or Brown; you can help both.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Barbara Boxer is the Bee's Knees!
C'mon, folks!  Senator Boxer needs us!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
Fiorina and women
I predict lots of abortion ads.
I don't think
People are worried about abortion when CA has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. I think that will be Boxer's biggest weakness. She will run on social issues, while voters care about jobs and the economy, and Fiorina will run on that.  
[ Parent ]
You are joking right?
Mrs. "The Board of HP Fired me and I shipped jobs overseas" Florina will be able to successfully on jobs and the economy?

When voters believe that, I will know once and for all my state has become too stupid to live in, and I will move to Vermont or something.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
When are Democrats going to wake up and realize that people don't care about abortion as much as they think?
Right now, people are worried about having a job, they're worried about their financial future. They don't care about whether the governor is pro-life or pro-choice. The only people whose vote turns on the abortion issue are those who will vote for the Democrat or Republican every time.

I'm not trying to dump on you, conspiracy, it just drives me crazy whenever either side brings up the abortion issue.

[ Parent ]
I was opining on what will happen
Not whether it should happen.
[ Parent ]
I actually think you're spot-on
This may sound a little extreme to some, but I think the only way Boxer wins is to portray Fiorina as a pro-lifer. Just look at that new CNN poll - Fiorina is netting 43% of the female vote, which is actually more than enough to best Boxer come election night. Boxer needs to reach out to the same female Independents who backed her in '98, and convince them that Fiorina's just another pro-lifer who wants to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Despite Fiorina's spotty business record, I actually don't think Boxer wins by attacking her on HP. At least, it didn't seem a very affective jab in their debate.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Didn't work in Massachusetts
Martha Coakley and EMILY's List hammered Scott Brown, who is generally pro-choice, with some pretty harsh abortion and womens' health ads, focusing on an amendment he wrote about emergency contraception.  The attack backfired, as it was a pretty obscure point to begin with, and allowed Brown to run a "shame-on-you" ad.

The difference here, of course, is that Fiorina is pro-life, which gives Boxer more room to attack her.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
But
Fiorina's argument for being pro-life is that her mother-in-law's doctors urged her to abort her husband. If she runs an ad defending her position on abortion with that reason, would voters find it acceptable, and could Boxer's attack even backfire, like in MA?  
[ Parent ]
CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Close Senate Race, Brown Lagging In Gov Race | 65 comments

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