Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):
Jack Conway (D): 46
Rand Paul (R): 46
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Hooray! The citizens of Kentucky have finally seen through Rand Paul's attempts to put a conventional Republican gloss on his oddball libertarianism! All the momentum is with Jack Conway! Oh, wait... what's that? It's a poll of registered voters at this late date? Taking into mind how much PPP's numbers have fallen off since the switch from a more-or-less RV model to a pure likely voter model, that should mean... aw, crap.
SurveyUSA for WHAS-TV and Louisville Courier-Journal (8/30-9/1, likely voters, 7/27-29 in parentheses):
Jack Conway (D): 40 (43)
Rand Paul (R): 55 (51)
Undecided: 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Oh, no! The bottom's fallen out for Jack Conway in the last month! Wait... what's that? The self-identified 47% Dem, 42% GOP, 10% Other breakdown of this poll is totally out of whack with Kentucky's historic voting patterns? (Dems have always had at least a 25% registration advantage over GOPers, and recalculation to reflect that traditional breakdown points to a 51-44 margin, according to analysis by Pete Brodnitz, of Conway pollster the Benenson Group.) Hmmm, guess we'd better get down from that ledge.
Well, how about a tie-breaker, then? On behalf of somebody called the Kentucky Leadership Council, Democratic pollster John Anzalone (I'm not sure if this is just imprecision on The Fix's part, or if he's operating truly outside of Anzalone-Liszt) is out with a poll that gives Rand Paul a 48-45 lead over Jack Conway. However... one other thing missing from the writeup of this poll is whether or not it's freakin' registered voters or likely voters! Aaaghghgh! [begins pounding head on desk] (Update: The polling memo gives us answers to two questions - it was by ALR, and its sample was of likely voters.)
Oh, by the way, at least we can be certain about one thing: how much money Jack Conway raised with his one-day moneybomb event yesterday. He set a $260K goal and went well past it, raising "more than" $300K (although it sounds like at least $45K of that was lined up ahead of schedule). As for Paul, he's up with his first TV ad of the general, highlighting his time as a physician, rather messianically titled "Gift of Sight." (No mention of his breaking with Big Ophthalmology to start his own renegade certification scheme, though.) No offical WOTSOTB, but estimates are of $250K. |
