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AK-Sen: Murkowski: "I'm Still In This Game", But Libertarians Don't Sound Enthusiastic

by: James L.

Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 6:42 PM EDT


How? That's not exactly certain. But a week after saying she would be "coming home" at the end of her Senate term, Lisa Murkowski's tone has changed:

Murkowski told The Associated Press on Tuesday that she's been inundated with calls and e-mails from supporters, asking her not to leave the race. She says she's been humbled and is listening - and weighing her options. ...

"But what I'm looking at is my state and the future of my state for my kids. So, I have not made that determination that I'm going to give up. I'm not a quitter, never have been. And I'm still in this game," Murkowski said.

She met briefly Tuesday with the Libertarian candidate, David Haase after friends of hers - without her direction, she said - approached his party, asking if they would consider a Murkowski candidacy. She said she had an interesting discussion with Haase but made clear she's not interested in changing her "political stripes."

Besides a third-party run, Murkowski also could seek a write-in candidacy, which she called high risk. Or, she could decide to stay out of the race. ...

She has until five days before the general election to decide on a write-in run but acknowledged a decision needs to be made soon. She said she's listening to Alaskans and giving "considered thought."

So let's get this straight: Friends of hers have reached out to the state Libertarian Party, and she's even gone so far as to meet with Libertarian nominee David Haase, but claims she's not interested in changing her "political stripes". And, for their part, the Alaska Libertarians, who already voted against allowing Murkowski on the ballot, are publicly saying that having her on their ballot line is probably not going to happen:

...Party chairman Scott Kohlhaas said the meetings are leading up to a discussion with Murkowski herself if she decides she wants a spot on the party's ticket.

But it's unlikely Libertarian leaders -- who have disapproved of Murkowski's voting record in the past -- will allow her on the ballot before the Sept. 15 deadline, he said. "I tried to warn the Murkowski people that they're trying to climb Mount McKinley here ... it's probably impossible."

Murkowski has eight days to somehow make a Libertarian run happen, if that's what she's interested in. The Libertarians, for their part, are the most curious players here -- voting to block Murkowski from their ballot, and calling a switch "probably impossible". Are they trying to get some major concessions out of Murkowski in exchange for their ballot line? Or do they just like the attention of a United States Senator for a change?

UPDATE: More details on Murkowski's play:

Libertarian Party nominee David Haase told POLITICO he met with Murkowski at the home of a private citizen Tuesday morning in Anchorage, where they discussed whether she was in interested in replacing Haase as the party's nominee on the ticket this November.

"My answer was that I was considering it and I wanted her to come up with some reasons why, and she's considering that," said Haase....

Haase said that he and Murkowski agreed they would touch base again Wednesday and would make a decision on the issue tentatively by Friday - just five days before the Sept. 15 deadline to make changes to party nominees on the ballot....

Nonetheless, Murkowski and Haase discussed the matter - and it appears the senator made some efforts to discuss some of her more Libertarian-leaning positions during the meeting.

Haase recalled that Murkowski told him that she has "reservations" about the Federal Reserve - a pet issue for the Libertarian nominee - and reminded him that she supported an amendment this year that would have called for an audit of the country's central banking system.

What a crazy race. Who knows if any of this will pan out. Also, I'm not surprised to see Murkowski tout her "reservations" about the Fed. After all, we wrote that little bit of PR for her a week and a half ago:

Anyhow, I wonder if Murkowski's support of a David Vitter amendment which supported a stronger audit of the Fed than the one that ultimately passed might endear her to the Libertarians.

SSP: Like reading Lisa Murkowski's memoranda a week early!

UPDATE: The Anchorage Daily News has much more, and by the sounds of it, the Libertarians are pretty cool to the idea:

In order for Murkowski to run as a Libertarian, Haase would have to step aside and the party would need to reverse its vote barring her from the ticket.

"It would be a serious flip-flop," party chairman Kohlhaas said. "And I don't think it's happening." ...

Haase said Murkowski does have Libertarian tendencies but that her support for the war on drugs is a problem. Party chairman Kolhaas has also identified other Murkowski positions as a problem for the Libertarians. Those include her vote to authorize the war in Iraq and her 2008 vote in favor of the Bush administration's Wall Street bailout plan, which Murkowski has said she regrets.

Haase said he might be willing to talk to his party's leadership on Murkowski's behalf. "If she convinced me I would do everything I can to convince them. But she hasn't convinced me. And she hasn't decided that she wants to run...she doesn't want to be seen as somebody that will switch parties just to get elected." Haase said.

Kohlhaas said the Libertarians are trying to be polite. But he said he understands [Murkowski] "is not going to change her stripes," and if that's the case it would be impossible for the party's executive committee to reverse itself and allow Murkowski on the ticket.

James L. :: AK-Sen: Murkowski: "I'm Still In This Game", But Libertarians Don't Sound Enthusiastic
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If Hasse were to step aside on his own
Wouldn't the Libertarians be "stuck" looking for a replacement candidate?

The Libertarian Party
in AK seems to be missing an opportunity here for a real shot at possibly getting someone elected as a Libertarian (Murkowski) to a high office, as opposed to a totally zero shot with whatever Some Dude is on their ballot line now.

Undoubtedly she isn't 100% pure to whatever their ideology is, but that's life. At the very least they'd get some publicity for their party for the next 2 months.


[ Parent ]
If Libertarians weren't purists, they'd be Republicans. It's central to all minor parties that...
...they are uncompromising on their ideology.

Major parties build coalitions to win elections.

Minor parties bring together purist malcontents.

So it shouldn't be surprising AK Libertarians would reject a shot at winning an election to maintain ideological purity.  They don't think about politics like Democrats or Republicans do.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
^ this comment.
I really like it.  A very nice bit of insight into the psychology of minor parties.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Jeez!
So much drama in Alaska!  It certainly sounds like the wheels are in motion, though.  I feel like a Murkowski candidacy is just too tempting for the Libertarians to turn down.  Have they ever had a credible candidate in a Senate race?  Of course, this would be bad news for Scott McAdams, and potentially bad news for everyone else if this somehow results in a Miller victory.

Male, 23, NJ-12

So what does everyone think?
Are we McAdams supporters better off with Murkowski in the race or not?  

Polling indicates no
Murkowski would split the moderate vote, which McAdams needs to consolidate in order to win. His path to victory is uniting Democrats, Independents, and Republicans put off by Miller's far-rightness. With Murkowski in the race, the latter two parts of that coalition bolt.

The best shot of Democrats picking up this seat is in a one-on-one.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
That was just ONE poll, by PPP, and no one should trust a sample of one......
I think it's awful tough to guess where nonpartisan soft partisan voters end up in a 3-way, and PPP's stab at it was a good effort, but far from gospel.  I don't think PPP's 3-way poll is any more trustworthy than their NY-23 polling last year.  Voters are fluid in a genuine 3-way.  Even the FL-Sen race is tough to pin down, even with so much polling under its belt.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree with this comment.


[ Parent ]
the polling last week
   seemed to show McAdams with a better chance in a two way race. I would tend to agree with that idea, but I am not in AK so I defer to those with instate knowledge.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure either..
 But I think that support for Miller would consolidate after the drama between Murkowski fades into memory in a race between McAdams and Miller. If Murk got in the race, I imagine that she would take some of those Republicans who would have ended up going to Miller at the end, and thus detracting support from Miller. I think it would also be good if there were two candidates attacking Miller on the airwaves instead of one..

What an interesting race!  


[ Parent ]
I'd prefer a 1v1 against Miller, but I think McAdams has a decent shot in a three candidate race
I don't think we should grow too convinced that Murkowski would win all the moderate votes that there are to be had. As I've said before, she's no Charlie Crist, and with a genuinely exciting Democrat in the race, I think she'd be forced into an extremely negative race with Miller for Republicans and Rep-leaning indys.

Two months of Miller and Murkowski tearing one another apart on the airwaves might drive enough moderates towards McAdams for him to slip by, along with what's left of the Dem base.

With all that said, I'd still prefer a conventional D-vs-crazy R race.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
three-ways are when weird things can start happening
I think many low info voters would still just vote for Murkowski as their incumbent Senator, scarcely noticing she's no longer on the GOP ballot line.
GOP faithful will of course vote for Miller. And in the chaos, I think our guy McAdams has the best shot to emerge with the plurality.

Come to think of it, there's that oddball Alaskan Independence Party, too. Are they running a Senate candidate? That would make it a four-way.


[ Parent ]
Hello again, TX-Gov 2006! And ME-Gov 2006.


My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
or Alaska 1994
Anyway, Alaska is a cheap media state so the NRSC will have to go in to defend Miller especially to keep their projected gains.
I really hope Murkowski goes back and forth on this and keeps everyone guessing. Hopefully, she ultimately stays out and pisses off the Miller camp because I think she could try and win up the middle.  

[ Parent ]
AIP is not running a candidate for AK-Sen this cycle
"There were no US Senate Alaskan Independence Party candidates on the Primary Election," Fenumiai wrote, "so there is no option for them to place someone on the ballot."

Sauce: http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets


[ Parent ]
I think it's a win-win for us...
If Murkowski bows out for good, McAdams has a chance to reach out to Alaska's GOP establishment, which is not very happy with either Joe Miller or Sarah Palin right now. And of course, it's not like independents and moderates are enthralled with Miller's extremism.

But if Murkowski jumps back in as an independent write-in or Libertarian or something else, it may just prolong the GOP infighting and give McAdams a chance to win just by consolidating all the Dems and Dem-leaning independents.

Hopefully, McAdams' campaign is smart enough to take advantage of either situation.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Me too.
While Miller and co. are distracted with nationalizing the race, this is McAdams' chance to define himself as an Alaskan through and through. The candidates that localize, will win. (And it is a lot more fun to look at the local circumstances rather than repeat the same old, tired, boring "Democrats are doomed".)

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Fed audit
Hasn't Alan Grayson made a big thing of this? Strange bedfellows indeed. Goodness knows what will happen here but it is fun to follow.

Yep
There are some issues that Progressives and libertarian leaning Republicans (and some mainstream ones, like myself) agree on. So far left that you are right, or so far right that you are left.  

[ Parent ]
bernie sanders
and ron paul are working together on this issue.  is indeed weird.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
I'm not ready to gamble on Miller...
I like McAdams and think he could give Miller a real run for the seat, however I'm not willing to risk what essentially would be a coin flip at best to put Miller in the Senate.  

So with that being said, if Murkowski was assured of winning if she ran, I'd be more than fine with that.  

What I don't want is a Florida situation where she splits the 60% of the Dem/Centrist/Moderate GOP vote with McAdams and Miller pulls 40% to win.  

Ideally McAdams would pull 40%, and have Miller and Murkowski split the other 60 virtually right down the middle to win 40/30/30.  

If it's a three way race and I was advising McAdams I'd have him not attack Murkowski, because that could turn her voters to Miller if she falls behind as a 3rd party.  Let Miller do all the attacking, and have McAdams focus on the issues.  That way if Murkowski is polling behind her voters might start voting against Miller if nothing else, and throw their vote strategically to McAdams on Nov 2nd.  

Further I'd advise McAdams to start reaching out to Murkowski voters now while Miller and Murkowski camps are still at odds given her toying with the idea to run.

Ultimately I don't think she will run though, odds are long that she could win. She could play spoiler to Miller though, but it would hurt her legacy.  


NRSC
Miller is the official candidate of the NRSC, but how much money would they spend on him if Murkowski were running a strong 3rd party campaign and McAdams were way back in 3rd place.  Even as a libertarian I assume she would still vote for McConnell.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

The funny thing is
I'd suspect Murkowski, elected as a 'Libertarian', would be a more reliable vote on matters like leadership than the Republican Miller, who I could see being enlisted in a coup attempt against McConnell by someone like DeMint.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
That would be the ultimate irony
if the Republican leadership got dethroned by their own Rove-originated astroturfing gone awry.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
As thunder booms and the votes roll in for his challenger
McConnell, flanked by John Cornyn and Chuck Grassley, reaches dramatically to the sky before shouting, in his best Gene Wilder impersonation, "What have I done? Oh God in Heaven, what have I done!?"  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
McAdams
If there is a three-way race, McAdams finishes a very distant third. Lisa M would get the Inds and moderate Reps and some Dems. Miller would get the Tea Party right and those who would be put off but what could be seen as Lisa's 'sore loser, me first' attitude.

McAdams only hope would be a two-way race and then some sort of big disaster hitting Miller late.


[ Parent ]
I hope that Murkowski runs
because I suspect that this race (as a two-way) is going to be the Dems second best shot (after Kentucky) to win a Senate seat.  It might even end up being their best shot.  Miller is totally unqualified to be in the Senate IMO.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
Florida?
I mean, I guess I'm taking it as a given that Crist will caucus as a Democrat (and the Democrats will retain control of the Senate)..  

[ Parent ]
McAdams would not be a distant 3rd, that's not a plausible outcome at all......
This isn't like FL-Sen, Murkowski can't attract base Democrats like Crist can do.  She's too established and loyal a Republican, and running on the Libertarian line is much more limiting than running as an independent.

McAdams will easily hold the Democratic base and win some swing voters, and I imagine his floor in a 3-way still would be around 30%.  Murkowski likely would end up a distant 3rd on election day, but possibly take enough from Miller to throw the race to McAdams.

I don't care what PPP's results were, their one poll is not a reliable gauge of how a 3-way would turn out.  Voters would be too fluid until well into October to get a grip on the outcome.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Well
I've lived in Alaska all my life. McAdams is a very weak candidate with no name recognition in a state that has only 15% registered D's. The I's and NP's heavily favor R's - heck, Bill Clinton couldn't carry this state, neither did Carter or JFK.

If this is a two-way race, Miller wins easily.
If Lisa Murk runs as a write-in, Miller wins comfortably with McAdams in 3rd.
If Lisa Murk somehow gets on the ballot as  Libt, it will be very close and she could win if she manages to paint Miller as an extremist.

The only way McAdams and the Ds could win is if Lisa Murk bows out completely and then Miller is found with a little boy the night before the election.


[ Parent ]
Horseshit, polling already proves you completely wrong......
Two polls have come out already, by Rasmussen and PPP, both of which have given Republicans strong numbers in most of their polls all cycle, and they both have McAdams very competitive.

In a 3-way, even Bill Clinton cleared 30% in 1992 and came in 2nd.  And you're trying to say McAdams can't finish 2nd when he already polls well in a 2-way?  Nonsense.

And big deal that Dems are only 15% of registered voters, Republicans are only 26%.

And given your recency and the tone of your posts, and the history of sockpuppetry and trolling some have carried out here, I'm not inclined to 100% believe you're even in Alaska.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Sorry to be irrelevat for this thread
But, Mayor Daley announced he is not running for reelection and Rahm Emmanuel is being talked of as a potential replacement. Big surprise.

I think
Daley made his decision to save the Democrats from having the only political story of the day being about the doom facing the Democrats. Maybe I'm wrong though..


[ Parent ]
I don't think it was anything so superficial
I think he was ready to be able to spend time with his family. And I think he wanted out while his legacy was still untarnished.  

[ Parent ]
This is not the right place
for off-topic chatter. Please keep this stuff to the open threads/daily digests.

[ Parent ]
A
Republican just penned an article talking about Joe Miller. She talks about how Joe Miller left the party in March of 2008 and decided to come back in October of 2009. Her last two paragraphs are the most interesting though.

I'm beginning to think Miller suffers from a personality disorder. We know from his amateurish performance at the 2008 Republican convention that he acts impulsively and irresponsibly - ignoring reality and failing to count his votes. And for someone who's never been elected to anything, his sense of self-importance seems wildly inflated.

With his well-rehearsed lines and fake bodyguards, it's inevitable that some will be drawn to Miller's act, but I'm still not buying the script. He doesn't get the rules, he can't work the system and he's not honest. He's a bearded, unfamous Lindsay Lohan. Another warped drama queen.

Read more: http://community.adn.com/adn/n...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12



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