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SSP Daily Digest: 9/7 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 4:09 PM EDT


AK-Sen: Once again, the Swing State Project is proud to issue one of its once-in-a-blue-moon endorsements, and to do it for Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee in Alaska. We're two-thirds of the way to our $2,400 goal, and we've just hit 50 contributors, so please join in!

CO-Sen, CO-Gov: This is a real head-scratcher: Ken Buck's camp is out with an internal poll by POS... showing him losing (despite what a number of public polls have said)?!? The poll gives a 43-40 edge to Michael Bennet, with 5 going to the Libertarian candidate. Either this is an odd attempt to mess with Dems' heads, or, more likely, a message to his supporters to stop taking the race for granted and to keep the contributions flowing. UPDATE: OK, this isn't a Buck internal; it's a joint POS/Fairbank Maslin collaboration, and it's not said on whose behalf this poll was performed. One other bit of news from the poll: it also includes gubernatorial numbers, and John Hickenlooper is closing in on the 50% mark. He's at 48, to 25 for Dan Maes and 15 for Tom Tancredo.

DE-Sen: Tax liens and penalties are sort of the common cold of political scandals, but this isn't timed well for Mike Castle, who's trying to stave off a last-minute zone-flooding from Tea Party Express on behalf of Christine O'Donnell. Castle had to make interest and penalty payments three times on his Capitol Hill pad in 2005 and 2006, although of course that pales in comparison to O'Donnell's long track record of ducking her bills. Meanwhile, we have a sense of what the Tea Party Express's fully operational battle station looks like: they've spent only $60K on O'Donnell's behalf so far, but plan to have spent $250K by the primary (including more airing of their TV spot and radio ad, as well as direct mail and out-of-state phone banking).

KY-Sen: The moneybomb shoe's on the other foot: Jack Conway's doing an online one-day fundraising scramble today. As of 1 pm ET, the day's total was up to $130K. Meanwhile, against that moneybomb backdrop, is an instance of a paid Rand Paul staffer having gotten caught sockpuppeting over at Daily Kos, concern-trolling against Conway from the left.

NH-Sen: A lot of money ($10K from various officers and employees) has flowed into Kelly Ayotte's campaign from a decidedly sketchy company in Texas: Tax Masters, one of those companies that relies heavily on late-night advertising to generate business for helping resolve debts owed to the IRS. The company and its CEO were charged with multiple violations of Texas's consumer protection laws, in the wake of hundreds of consumer complaints.

OH-Sen, OH-Gov: The Columbus Dispatch offers up some truly bad numbers for the Democratic candidates in Ohio, finding Rob Portman leading Lee Fisher 50-37 in the Senate race and John Kasich leading Ted Strickland 49-37 in the governor's race (and the GOP winning all lower statewide races too), among registered voters. One important caveat, though: the Dispatch's poll are notoriously an all-mail-in survey (why not just poll subscribers to Literary Digest?!?), and have consistently ranked dead last in most of 538's pollster ratings (until the most recent installment, when they managed to leap ahead of a few other members of the rogues' gallery, including Research 2000, ARG, and Zogby Interactive).

WA-Sen: Patty Murray leaked an internal poll today to Politico, showing that the needle has barely budged in this race between two ubiquitously-known, well-defined candidates. The Fairbank Maslin poll gives Murray a 50-45 lead, and 53/42 approval. An April internal by the same pollster, back when Dino Rossi was only considering entering the race, gave Murray an 8-point lead.

MA-Gov: A poll from local wire service State House News Service gives a decent lead to Deval Patrick, thanks to an assist from Tim Cahill. Their first poll of the gubernatorial race has Patrick leading Republican Charlie Baker, independent Cahill, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 34-28-18-4, among registered voters.

MD-Gov: For every Joe Miller, there's, well, a Brian Murphy. The Washington Post takes a quick look at the upstart GOP gubernatorial candidate, whose Sarah Palin endorsement hasn't turned into much of anything (other than a way for Bob Ehrlich to burnish his moderate credentials). In the pre-primary reporting period (all of which covers the post-Palin period), he's raised only $35K, including $14K from himself, leaving him with $31K CoH. Ehrlich raised $725K over the 18-day period, taking him to $2.5 million CoH, while Dem Martin O'Malley raised $267K and has $6.5 million CoH.

MI-Gov: While organized labor is the biggest force propelling Dem Virg Bernero in Michigan, there's one union that isn't falling in line. The state's largest construction union, the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights, is backing Rick Snyder instead. More alarmingly for Bernero, the much-larger Teamsters haven't endorsed yet and could conceivably go for Snyder too.

MS-Gov: The 2011 election is only fourteen months away, and things are taking shape in Mississippi. Phil Bryant, the first-term Republican Lt. Governor, is taking steps to prepare for a bid. Businessman Dave Dennis also seems likely to run, while the state's great-named SoS, Delbert Hosemann, also sounds like he's interested.

TX-Gov: We have two wildly divergent polls in Texas, both from GOP pollsters. Hill Research, on behalf of the Texas Watch Foundation (in a poll that seems primarily about homeowners' insurance reform, but where the gube race seems to have gotten thrown-in as an attention-getter), finds Rick Perry leading Bill White by only a 42-41 margin. On the other hand, GOPAC (perhaps having gotten an advance heads-up about the Texas Watch numbers) rolled out numbers showing Perry in better shape. Their poll, via Wilson Research Strategies, gives Perry a 50-38 lead over White.

KS-04: With polling now pretty consistently showing Mike Pompeo leading Raj Goyle by single digits in the open seat race in the 4th, the last thing the Republicans can afford here is a high-profile third-party challenge on the right. That's what they might get, though, if businessman (and former Tic-Tac-Dough host) Wink Hartman follows through on threats to pick up the just-abandoned Libertarian ballot line. The state party has started scrambling to lean on Hartman to get him to stand down.

NY-various: There's a bonanza of pre-primary fundraising reports in New York (where the primary is next week). The biggest raiser among the various Republican House challengers was Chris Cox in the 1st, who raised $103K to Randy Altschuler's $59K (although Altschuler still has a big CoH advantage). In the 23rd, the numbers were much smaller: Matt Doheny raised $41K and Doug Hoffman raised $37K, although Doheny has about three times Hoffman's CoH.

WV-01: On the back of the DCCC's wave of internal polls today, here's one more poll that probably has to go in the "good news" file: an internal poll, from POS, has Republican David McKinley trailing Dem Mike Oliverio in the open seat race in the 1st. Oliverio leads McKinley 41-36. The only other poll of this race was an Oliverio internal last month that gave him a seemingly too-good-to-be-true 52-36 lead over McKinley, but at the very least, it seems like everyone's in agreement that Oliverio's in pole position for now.

Ads:
CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with an ad in Colorado, letting Ken Buck go after himself with his own words on Social Security and the 17th Amendment
DE-Sen: Mike Castle's new ad is out; predictably, it goes after Christine O'Donnell for her crazy finances
FL-Sen: First TV ad from Charlie Crist, stressing his (what else?) independence; also Kendrick Meek's first TV ad, which is him on a swamp boat and stressing his (what else?) Dem credentials
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt ad about how much he loves small business
OH-Sen: Lee Fisher's first TV ad out of the gate is negative, going after Rob Portman for being George Bush's job-exporting trade representative
CA-Gov: Strangely sepia-toned ad is Jerry Brown's first, seemingly to remind older Californians about how much things sucked less when he was Governor the first time (SOTB: $1.2 million for one week... that's California for you)
FL-Gov: Rick Scott's first post-primary TV ad is an attack ad against... Barack Obama? (and Alex Sink, too, I guess)
GA-Gov: Roy Barnes goes negative against Nathan Deal on the issues of his recently-released tax returns, calling him "too corrupt even for Congress"
SC-Gov: Nikki Haley's first TV spot, outsider-themed with a jab at Mark Sanford
FL-22: The new Ron Klein spot is another anti-Allen West spot, but still hammering on the tax liens instead of, well, West's non-stop stream-of-consciousness crazy
ID-01: Walt Minnick's first TV spot: please disregard the "D" next to his name, because he's independent
IN-02: The NRCC's first television IE of the cycle, hitting Joe Donnelly for, well, being a Democrat
IN-08: Trent van Haaften's first TV ad is a basic introductory spot
PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper's second ad tries to cram "jobs" in there as many times as possible
PA-06: Manan Trivedi's first TV ad also works the outsider angle
PA-11: Paul Kanjorski's second ad works the Social Security privatization angle, smart in such an aged district
PA-15: Interestingly, Charlie Dent's first ad is a negative shot against John Callahan (on local property taxes), indicating he may be feeling some heat here
WI-07: Julie Lassa's second ad goes after Sean Duffy for saying that he can't do anything to create jobs
AFSCME: Here's the big buy of the day: the AFSCME is shelling out $1.5 million in four states (Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) for an ad attacking Republicans for voting against the state aid package in August)

Rasmussen:
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 37%, Mike Castle (R) 48%
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 47%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 36%
ID-Gov: Keith Allred (D) 36%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 52%
ID-Sen: Tom Sullivan (D) 24%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 63%
MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 39%, Charlie Baker (R) 34%, Tim Cahill (I) 18%
NE-Gov: Mike Meister (D) 28%, Dave Heineman (R-inc) 61%
NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 33%, Brian Sandoval (R) 58%
NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/7 (Afternoon Edition)
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That's a real open question.
Public Opinion Strategies, a GOP polling firm.  Or more commonly, "piece of shit."

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
It's funny that we think so little of this organization
and then they come out with the most positive poll for Michael Bennett since the primaries ended.

So I choose...to believe this race is a toss-up, exactly what I thought before this poll came out.

(and I still don't think much of POS)


[ Parent ]
The Colorado poll was truly strange.
It was a joint excercise between POS and a Dem firm that I've never heard of.  Love the result, but it would be more credible if POS were not involved.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
The question is
Are they bad pollsters or very biased? Probably a bit of both. They do team with Peter Hart for the NBC/WSJ poll which is generally decent. Maybe working with a Dem irons out their "problems". But yeah, this was the hardest seat for me to rank. Total tossup right now.

[ Parent ]
They were McCain's pollster...
Enough said.

[ Parent ]
Yup
"Iowa is in-play, Virginia is safe and Pennsylvania is tightening fast!"

[ Parent ]
And McInturff aggressively and publicly defended his polling. And Charlie Black 5 days out said...
...McCain would "probably win" Iowa and Pennsylvania.

So "probably" was his out, heh?  "Outside chance" of Obama victory prevailed...upset!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
DE-SEN, NH SEN
These two seats don't look bad at all, Castle is definitely not invincible.

And Ayotte has issues enough to write the ads themselves.


21,Democrat, NY-02, male


Gallop Generic Ballot tied at 46%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/142...

10% swing in a week.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


At this rate, Dems will be up
75-25 by election day!  This is huge!  

For some reason, Gallup has been all over the place with its generic ballot all cycle.  I'm almost embarrassed for them.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Ok, that is freaky
Maybe it's just the vagaries of the Labor-Day period.

But today has been the best day for polls (if you're a Dem) in a while.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male


[ Parent ]
Best and worst
OTOH, you had both the ABC-Washington Post Poll, and the WSJ-NBC poll, both of which showed Dems in a deep hole.  

[ Parent ]
But, both of those polls were over a week old...
They polled both of those the weekend of August 28-30.

[ Parent ]
What kind of drugs are they using at Gallup?
I really do not believe anything they put out at this point.  From that crater of a poll last week to a 10 point swing this week, I really do not believe anything that Gallup says.  There was nothing to cause that crater last week and nothing to cause this massive correction this week.  One of them must be outside the margin of error or both could be for that matter.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Don't forget that a few weeks ago
they had Dems up 6 when every other poll had them down.  Whatever they're smoking over there ... PASS THAT SHIT!!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Gallup
I recommend looking at their trendlines for comic relief.

In general, I have never been so cynical of polling as I have been over the last three months.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
Total BS I agree
Probably because the numbers are a composit of their polling from every day last week and as people kept pointing out the president's approval was much approved over that time. It is also back up today. Long way to go yet.

[ Parent ]
Nothing wrong with their polling, it's normal statistical noise......
When you have daily and weekly results, and you're doing methodologically sound polling with truly random samples, you actually get a fair amount of volatility.  Remember, one thing that made Research 2000 suspect was their LACK of volatility in their weekly results.

Think of it this way:  if you flip a coin, it's 50-50 each time for heads or tails.  But that doesn't mean you won't get heads 4 times in a row.  If that happens, are you going to insist it must be a two-headed coin?  No, that's the volatility inherent in the math of probabilities.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
No drugs, not outside the margin of error, regular statistical noise
Said this before - and I see that DCCyclone made a similar point now: there's nothing particularly incredible, or weird, let alone druggy about their results.

It's just statistical noise, and it all falls squarely within the margins of error. No reason to suddenly lose one's faith in polling.

You can easily check this for yourself. At the bottom of the page linked in, it says: "For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points."

OK, so last week, Gallup had the Reps at 51, and the Dems at 41. Taking the MoE into account, that meant that there was a 95% chance that the Reps were between 47-55% and a 95% chance that the Dems were between 37%-45%.

This week, Gallup has the Reps and Dems both at 46%. Meaning that there is a 95% chance that either party is between 42%-50%.

In short, the MoE for both parties' results this week overlap with those for last weeks'. Maybe the Reps just stayed stable at 48% or 49%, maybe the Dems stayed stable at 43% or 44%. Maybe there was a slight shift, maybe there was a stronger shift. But nothing about these numbers suggests that Gallup is on drugs or that their polling is running amock. It could all just legitimately be statistical noise, according to their own disclaimer - and it wouldn't be very different for any other pollster.

What makes these swings seem so larger than life is when you start looking at the difference between the two parties, rather than the number for each separately. Looking at the lead multiplies the MoE.

Just look above again: with the Reps at 47-55% and the Dems at 37%-45%, the GOP's lead could have been anywhere between 2% and 18%, when you take the MoE into account ... and this week, taking the MoE into account, the Reps could be ahead by 8% or the Dems could be ahead by 8%. Other than the 5% chance that even that isn't true.

It's all a good exercise for relativating poll results in general, but it says nothing bad about Gallup's polling in particular.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


[ Parent ]
Based on Gallup's model
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124...

Gallup's model shows that Democrats could lose the overall 2010 congressional vote and still retain majority-party status.

At 50% of the 2-party vote, Ds would retain 240 seats.
At 45%, Ds would retain 186 seats

This model is +/- 11 seats, with a break-even at 48%, due to incumbent effects.

So it's "safe" to say that Ds will come out of this election with somewhere between 186 and 240 seats. The mean of that would be 213 seats.

The actual result will depend on candidates, campaigns, and external factors. Based on the number of (presumably weaker) Tea Party candidates, I'm guessing the real "break-even" is closer to 47%.


[ Parent ]
I have Dems
at 214 seats right now.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I put net loss at maximum 30
We lose all the open Blue Dog and open marginal PVI (D plus or minus 6) seats for a minimum of 15--and going up from there.

People are upset but do they fire their incumbent rep? I don't see it. Perhaps in some (many) cases they don't vote or vote third-party protest. Some froshes will lose, but losing the House? The bottom hasn't fallen out yet. However, if I were unemployed, I would consider the bottom having fallen out. So, it's relative, but in a macro-political way, the Dems still have plenty of cushion.

It's called a "durable majority" for a reason.

I like the low 20s for net losses right now.


[ Parent ]
Somebody more optimistic than me
Makes me feel better.

[ Parent ]
Gallup historically has seen wild swings...
...it just seems to over-reflect whatever the trends are.  While it's most infamous for it's Dewey-Truman poll you may also remember it was the one who showed Mike Dukakis with an absurd post convention 20+ lead over George HW Bush.

I take their "bipolar" highs and lows with a grain of salt.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
Oh good grief
ECG strikes again! Maybe they saw the NBC and ABC polls and didn't want to be left out of the tied RV bandwagon. Still, the problem is with Dems not interested in voting hence the big GOP lead with LV with the networks. I'm only really interested in those numbers from now on.

[ Parent ]
They were notorious in 2000
... for a tracking poll that would swing between wide leads for Gore to wide leads for Bush within two days. And this was a DAILY tracking poll.

Some other bizarre results included their 13-point Bush lead in 2004 post-GOP convention, and a 12-point Kerry lead in late spring (Kerry 55 / Bush 43).  


[ Parent ]
Richard
Daley won't seek re-election. Rahm is talking of leaving the WH, wonder if he will make the plunge.

http://www.chicagobreakingnews...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Probably thin ice posting this


[ Parent ]
On second thoughts
Probably fine since it is actually about an election. Obviously the rest of the web only cares what it means for Obama!

[ Parent ]
Don't
worry I learned my lesson. Only election related posts. I find this race particularly fascinating given that it has been twenty years since and open election. I bet a load of people run.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
That type of thing is totally fine
It's about an election -- of course we'd be interested!  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
My first thought was that I didn't want hoosierdem to be banned again for bringing up gossip then suddenly it hit me. Doh!

[ Parent ]
Who Else?
I know nothing of Chicago politics, so does anyone know if Rahm would favored to win the primary (are there primaries?) if he runs?

Male, 23, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Chuck
Todd said on Hardball that Rahm realistically only has a week to decide if he wants to run.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Rep.
Jackson, the new cook county board, Roland Burris (ugh, but I could see him running even with his age), Daley's brother the former commerce secretary (keeping it in the family) and maybe Madigan. Those are all I thought of, I am not from Chicago and those are all the obvious people I can see running.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
There's Danny Davis too
He almost made the jump to the Cook County Board so there's certainly an interest in local politics. He'd be interesting because it would probably set off a scramble on the West Side for his House seat.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Davis does seems like a possible candidate. This is probably his first and last chance at the job as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
At his age (69), why would he want it?


[ Parent ]
I concur that Burris could totally run
Rahm or no Rahm.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
It'd be a nice consolation prize.
And another notch on his bust.

[ Parent ]
Ah the mausoleum
Back when the future looked very blue. Them were the days!

[ Parent ]
Good Lord
I can't imagine Burris being viable for this race (or any race really).  He's just too tainted with the whole Blagojevich thing, his ethics hearing, and basically just being him.  I also can't really see Madigan going for it either, just because I feel like she's waiting for one of the "big ones" to come easy to her.

Daley I could see just cause Chicago clearly loves that family.  I know nothing about Jackson, but the Cook County Board isn't a bad place to be if you wanna be mayor.

Again, I'm kinda just guessing here, but I feel like Rahm has the advantage just because of his name rec.  Although who knows what his favorables would be.  Plus I'm sure Obama would be in his corner, and that would surely help in Illinois, especially Chicago.

Male, 23, NJ-12


[ Parent ]
Yup
Burris may try but he has to improve his fundraising for a start!

[ Parent ]
He
would not win, god I hope not anyway. But I just think he will likely run. He has run before and I am sure he can delude himself into thinking he can win. I agree that Rahm will have an edge. Especially if he has Obama in his corner. This is plain and simply nuts but what about Quinn if he loses this year? Is he even from there?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
For all we know, Burris may have a not-horrible favorable rating in Cook County
If his approval is 20% statewide, he may have as much as a 35% approval where it counts in a Chicago mayoral race. Which, of course, is dreadful, but in a crowded field, and when the electorate is about a quarter African-American, you never know. I wonder if Cheryle Jackson is interested?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Supposedly
Another failed Sen candidate from this year, David Hoffman, is in the mix. This will be a fascinating race if Burris, Hoffman, Rahm, Jackson, and Davis all get in.  

[ Parent ]
Tom Tunney


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
It'll Be a Huge Field
At least at first. When an office that important hasn't been free for over 20 years, interest piles up. Rahm's possible. Tom Dart (sheriff). Jim Houlihan (assessor). Manny Flores. I suppose Lisa Madigan. I don't know which African-American(s?) might emerge. Danny Davis? It'll be fun to watch this unfold this week.

[ Parent ]
Murkowski Camp Hints She May Re-enter Race
In another potentially stunning twist in the Alaska Senate race, the campaign manager for defeated incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski indicated to RealClearPolitics on Tuesday that Murkowski may run as a third-party or write-in candidate in the general election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


She's
probably sensing an opening with Joe Miller's nuttiness.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Interesting dichotomy in TX-Gov
Wonder if the favorable poll primed with homeowner's insruance before asking about the Gov's race. Homeowner's insurance has been a high profile Dem issue in state politics for several cycles. I would almost be as pleased to see that it has legs as I would to see a tied Gov's race. Lot of dem candidates trying to tide that issue up and down the ballot.

34, M, TX-5, Democrat


NY-Sen: Rudy Giuliani backs Malpass
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...

Between this and the NY Post endorsement, I expect Malpass to surge over the coming week. DioGuardi's been riding name recognition thus far, and it's only gotten him to about 20%. Blakeman's gone nowhere, and, besides an early Al D'Amato backing, he hasn't netted many endorsements either. My hunch is state Republicans are attracted to Malpass's ability to self-fund - supposedly, he could spend upwards of $10M in the general. He's also more moderate than DioGuardi on social issues.

Current predix here...

Malpass - 40%
DioGuardi - 34%
Blakeman - 26%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Are
Malpass's ads running more now? Also, would DioGuardi, with his modest self funding ability, be a factor in the general, being the Conservative Party nominee? I agree though, I expect Malpass to surge. Who is DioGuardi's base? The big national  Tea Party groups that have endorsed (FreedomWorks mainly) have endorsed Malpass, moderates are supporting Malpass and Blakeman, and the establishemnt supports Malpass (except for Cox, but he doesn't really count, as most people don't take him seriously anyway)  

[ Parent ]
Yes
I've seen them. But bottom line is no knows who any of the candidates are. Which makes endorsement a lot more important than usual.

DioGuardi is probably cruising on his daughter's endorsements. There a lot of American Idol fans in NY.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
Hmm
I wonder if she left Idol to campaign for him?  

[ Parent ]
FWIW, Kara mailed it in on Idol last year
I think she was pulling a Paula Abdul and acting like a complete airhead. I'm guessing she lost the credibility that she gained in her first year on Idol.  

[ Parent ]
She sucked last year
I could not stand her! Even Ellen was a better judge!  

[ Parent ]
I have seen a fair amount of Malpass ads
Though, Blakeman and DioGuardi are (finally) starting to as well. Blakeman's is a dreadful - an amateurish mess - but DioGuardi's isn't half bad. Malpass is definitely running the most polished, expert, expensive-looking ads of the three.

Frankly, DioGuardi's only base is the Conservative Party crowd. In the mid-80s, he was probably the most prominent New York Republican (besides D'Amato), but after he lost re-election, he too lost most of his clout among the rank-and-file - most state GOP-ers felt he was too conservative. Now, he clings to residual support from the few conservatives who remember him. Should he lose the GOP nod, I expect he garners about 3% in the general. He won't be a spoiler, since I think Malpass runs about 15% behind Gillibrand.

I think Blakeman's viewed as a little washed-up by the rank-and-file (he was the Comptroller nominee in '98), but that didn't stop D'Amato from backing him. I guess most moderates are behind him, but not enough. In fact, I think most of his support is purely geographical - he's the only candidate who hails from Long Island. He needs to run-up a massive margin there to win.

The funny thing is, this race will be decided upstate - 50% of the primary electorate will hail from there - and yet, you've got candidates from Westchester, NYC, and Long Island.

BTW, on a sorta-related note, Gail Goode has released thousands of mailers for her long-shot primary bid against Kirstin Gillibrand. She won't win, but don't be shocked if she nets as much as 30% next Tuesday. Half of the electorate will hail from NYC - Goode's base, and where Gillibrand is still largely unknown.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Blakeman
Doesn't surprise me. He was probably more concerned with getting the money to actually air the ads, since he has been a crappy fundraiser and has not self funded much. Republicans and Democrats really missed an opportunity here. Gillibrand still isn't breaking 45%. I think if one of the Congressmen had run against her she would have been the 4th incumbent to lose a primary.  

[ Parent ]
NY-Sen
I think we missed this one.

Rasmussen 9/1

Gillibrand 53%, Malpass 27%
Gillibrand 51%, DioGuardi 31%
Gillibrand 51%, Blakeman 32%


[ Parent ]
Those numbers might be a decent snapsnot for now...
But, I suspect Blakeman actually performs the weakest of the three candidates. He has the least impressive credentials (Port Authority Commissioner vs. fmr. Congressman and Reagan/Bush Deputy Treasury Secretary), he's gaffe-prone, and he has the least $$$ to play with. DioGuardi is a polished fmr. Congressman and Malpass has millions to work with.

Btw, I've already seen the Blakeman and Malpass ads this morning. As I've already said, Blakeman's is a real dud, but I hadn't seen this Malpass one. I guess it's good for a GOP primary, but I can't imagine bashing Obamacare and tying Gillibrand to Obama will prove successful come the general.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: New Ad From Reid

This one works to turn her last ad on its head.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


EVERY Reid ad has been excellent. Every Democratic Senator or candidate up this year should be required...
...to sit down and watch every Reid ad, and read the timing and volume and expense of the buy for each ad.

That's how you win.

Some of them don't have the money to have aired ads as early as Reid did, but now that it's September, they can all do the exact same thing as Reid.

But alas, we're going to get some of our candidates and maybe even Senators just trip over themselves running bad campaigns.  It just happens, there are bad candidates and campaigns every cycle, but it's more painful in one like this year when we're hanging by a thread.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Conway Money Bomb Update
According to the email I got he's over his goal of 260K now and is raising the goal to 300K. He'll probably get it. Nice to see a dem doing a money bomb for a change.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

It's almost as if
we've been afraid to do it because it's a douchey Paul family thing.  They work people!  

Tarryl Clark did some sort of money bomb, can't remember what.  It may have been some week long thing to coincide with the end of the financial report, so kind of a half-hearted one.  I bet they're waiting for Bachmann to do something stupid again and be able to knock it out of the park.  Although, now we have to worry about with Bachmann that she'd be able to match any Clark moneybomb dollar for dollar.  Bachmann raised $1.6 million last quarter without some major event, just steady as she goes.

Anyone know what Paul's last money bomb haul was?  


[ Parent ]
His last was 260K


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I was actually polled on the Texas race
I don't know if it was one of these two polls though.

(I am undecided in the race between White or voting Libertarian/skipping the race.  I reject Perry due since he suggested secession as an option, completely irresponsible for a Governor.  And his performance hasn't been so good anyway.)

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)


Skipping the race/Voting Lib...
Would be helping Perry.  I guess it's better than voting for Perry, but not voting for him and voting for White would be a double whammy and the most you could do to ensure he wasn't re-elected.  

[ Parent ]
I'm looking to confirm
that Bill White would be a centrist non-partisan technocrat (like say Phil Bredesen or Roy Barnes), and not a liberal or an extremely partisan Democrat.  If White can convince me of that, he has my vote.  If not, I'm voting Lib.

The fact that the Texas Gov position is pretty weak helps.  But I don't want White doing Obama's bidding here in Texas anymore than I want Rick Perry and his embarrassing behavior and his do-nothing attitude.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)


[ Parent ]
Um, I think Bear is a Republican, so his non-vote for Perry HELPS us. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Move one county over
I do some field canvassing for White in Denton County, I'd be happy to knock on your door and tell you why you need to vote for him.

Hell, consider me typing this as the campaign coming by. Knock! Knock!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
You are welcome to make your case
I'm mostly interested in some assurance that White is more of a centrist technocrat and not a hyper-partisan guy.  

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
If his record as mayor is any indication
Where you had a slight Republican majority in the city council, yet most votes were never close and you had GOP members praising White for his consensus-building, I think that's what you're probably going to see if he were governor. He's a Democrat (served as a staffer in the 70s, was in the dept. of Energy in the 90s under Clinton) but a rather non-partisan guy. Probably his most ideological moves as mayor were to strongly pressure two companies to adhere to pollution standards (or face government lawsuits and bad press).

There was this relatively long (like 5-6 pages) article on White back in late '09 that talked all about White's background and tenure as mayor, it was quite impressive to say the least. Once I find it i'll send it your way.

His online ads do creep me out a little bit though :p


[ Parent ]
Just for an on the ground perspective
He's Gov. 39% and I've been wondering why.  From what I've kind of gotten is that he does nothing and while TX has been humming along with Houston, Dallas, and Austin exploding in population, great economy and such.  I have no idea how the current status of the economy of TX, but it sounds like the man just isn't capitalizing on this.  

I lived outside of Houston from 2nd-7th grade and then moved back to MN and dear god the schools.  I was in gifted and talented and one of the best students in TX, moved to MN and got my first C.  (Missing the day we learned x+b=y on a graph was also a factor. I was totally fucked after that.)


[ Parent ]
I want the Tea party Express to go into NH...
Ayotte is ripe for the picking with Ovide Lamontagne.  Ayotte paid off Planned Parenthood to the tune of $300K for a case Palin trumpeted as Ayotte winning when she endorsed her.  This is a sore spot for anti-choicers who feel Ayotte should have took the case all the way to the Supreme Court and fought the good fight rather than giving up and paying Planned Parenthood with their tax dollars.  

I wonder if TPE is sitting out because Palin endorsed Ayotte.  


Also, there's a modest chunk of the Tea Party that's actually behind Ayotte


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
MI-Gov Poll
600 LV from Mitchell Research (R)

Snyder (R) - 53
Bernero (D) - 27

MoE - 4.0%

http://wwj.cbslocal.com/2010/0...

Also, from a separate but related article (gated, unfortunately), the Michigan Republican Party has between $20 and $25 million to spend this cycle(!) Both Snyder and Bernero are expected to go on the air this week; Snyder tomorrow and Bernero Friday.


Interesting
I thought Bernero would wait a little longer to go on air.  He is down in the polls but I doubt he has the money Snyder will have.  Do you know if it's the Bernero campaign or is it the unions on behave of Bernero that's suppose to start running ads this week?

The Free Press article on the same poll says Bernero has 26%.

http://www.freep.com/article/2...

This poll has results similar to other recent polls.  The fact that there's such a large group of undecided voters is good for Bernero.  It will be interesting to see how polls react once the advertising begins.    


[ Parent ]
MI Republican party
I wonder if they will spend most of it on down ballot races, with Snyder raising a ton and self-funding?  

[ Parent ]
I was wondering
 What do you think of the ads? I found CO and OH-Sen pretty effective in defining the Republicans. GA-GOV did not really strike me though.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


PA-06: I don't like the ad that much, I'm skeptical it will move voters......
It plays the outsider angle, yeah, but cutting Congressional pay to reduce the deficit/debt is, in fact, gimmicky, and I suspect it will come off as gimmicky to many viewers.

The opening shot of Trivedi in Iraq is great, but he glosses over his service which is a lot more compelling than anything that comes later in the ad.  The "doing more with less" narrative is a smart lead-in, but it would be smarter if followed by a better idea than cutting Congressional pay.

Trivedi's personal story itself is compelling enough that I wish he'd have done (assuming he hasn't) a soft bio ad to introduce himself.  A doctor who served in combat in Iraq is gripping stuff in its own right.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10



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