Google Ads


Site Stats

IL-Gov: Brady Up by 5

by: James L.

Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 4:21 PM EDT


Market Shares Corp for the Chicago Tribune/WGN (8/28-9/1, likely voters, no trend lines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 32
Bill Brady (R): 37
Scott Lee Cohen (I): 4
Rich Whitney (G): 2
Lex Green (L): 2

Did You Know... that Pat Quinn has not held the lead in a single poll this year?

Granted, nearly all of these polls have come from just two sources (PPP and Rasmussen), but that's really a non-comfort here given the sheer volume of them.
James L. :: IL-Gov: Brady Up by 5
Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

IL-Gov: Brady Up by 5 | 55 comments
Illinois Governor Race
It seem that this race is getting closer due to the strong Democratic lean of the State in whole. Over the summer Brady's lead over Quinn was on average about 8 percentage points. If this poll is indeed accurate then we may see Quinn come back from behind and win this race once Brady is defined as the downstate right wing lunatic at he is.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
Poor Lisa Madigan
Not saying this for certain, but it's highly likely she'd have this locked up if she had run.  I suspect she didn't make a go of it because of the perception that Quinn could win and that the primary wasn't worth the fight.
Biggest Democratic recruitment failure of the cycle
No contest

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
This
race is probably next to the Delaware Senate race in the list of Biggest Democratic Recruitment failures this cycle  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
?
Chris Coons is a legitimate candidate. Mike Castle would have been hard even with Beau Biden.

IL-Gov and IL-Sen were recruitment fails--though, Giannoulias really isn't nearly as bad as people think he is.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
I
meant the DSCC inability to recruit Beau Biden into the race is without a doubt a huge failure. With him in the running, this race could have easily been a tossup instead of the current race with Castle leading Coons by over 10 points consistently. I am not saying Coons is not a legitimate candidate but rather the non preferred one. Similar to both Giannoulias and Quinn.    

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Roy Cooper was also a big failure
I think that he would be ahead of Burr right now if he was our candidate

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Oh, and a few more
We kinda knew he probably wouldn't go for it, but John Lynch would be the frontrunner if he was our New Hampshire Senate candidate instead of Hodes (though Hodes is probably substantially more valuable in the Senate than Lynch would be). Also would have been nice if Obama didn't take Sebelius and Vilsack away from us. Having Kansas and Iowa on the board right now would be very helpful.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Most governors lost a lot of popularity, given the economy
I really don't agree with assuming Sebelius would have retained popularity. As for Vilsack, I'm quite uncertain he would have wanted to run for the Senate or that he would have defeated Grassley, but I do see where he would have been the strongest candidate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Vilsack can run against Grassley in 2016.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Sebelius at the very least
gives us a pulse. And she probably would have given Raj Goyle some help down-ballot. If nothing else, she would have drawn NRSC money away

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Not if her popularity had plummeted
We simply can't know what would have happened if she had remained Governor.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Parkinson's
approval is hovering around 50% right now. What makes you think she would be worse than that? I'm not saying she would have won but I do think she would still be fairly popular and made a race out of it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Also
unemployment is at 6.5% is Kansas right now. Not great but not horrible.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
That seems sensible n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
How so?
Marshall is a popular state wide elected official. That has one every race since the mid 90's.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
She herself said she didn't really have to do much to win
I think she spent $150K total for her race last cycle?  Her name rec kind of proves it since barely anyone has had a chance to know her.
[ Parent ]
Marshall
Marshall has proven to be inept at fundraising, she is 64, and she is too liberal to go against Burr.  Cooper and possibly Cal Cunningham to some extent would not have had these negatives.  Even if Cooper had entered the race, it might not have been like Democrats thought it would be with him in it.  The current Republican favoring political climate is a boon to Burr along with the Democrats focusing on defense instead of offense in this cycle's Senate races.  Although Cooper was widely seen as the best candidate, the troubles the State Bureau of Investigation has experienced recently might have hurt a Cooper Senate candidacy.  It so far has implicated him only indirectly but who could tell what salience it would have in a heated campaign.
[ Parent ]
I don't have a problem with Alexi at all
I just think that Madigan running for governor would have locked up both races no problem. Giannoulias would be crushing Kirk with Lisa at the top of the ticket. It's a crying shame we couldn't get her to go for it.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Hynes
would probably be up ten points on Brady now and probably would have been able to pull Alexi across the finish line as well. I don't mean to cry over spilled milk but that was one of the most disappointing primaries of the season for me.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
In the end
my home town will pull Alexi across the finish line. I'm not so sure about Quinn.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Is your home "town" Chicago, by any change?
[ Parent ]
Policy
wise Alexi is fantastic, especially when it comes to his support for gay rights in a state like Illinois. But his ties to the banking industry in an environment like this is what's hurting him so much and  keeping this race within the margin of error.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Didn't Lisa Madigan decline for family reasons?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
family reasons nearly always means
"family reasons"
[ Parent ]
No, as in she has children to raise.
At least that's what I heard.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
she says that
but it was very clear from all reports she didnt get into the race because the races weren't wide open for her.  I wont be running for Gov or Senate for family reasons, but Im here to announce my re-election to Attorney General!
[ Parent ]
She
not only said no to the Governor race but also to the Senate race. If I were her Id be kicking myself 24/7 for not going after either seat.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
She
probably does not want to be Governor now. It is a difficult time to govern. Not sure why she didn't run for Senate. I suppose she wants to be Governor but just not yet.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
She demanded a clear field to run for Senate
and Giannoulias wouldn't get out.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
She
would have mopped the floor with him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I think she sees she has a very nice political future set-up for herself
And didnt want to take a risk whatsoever.  She may not be kicking herself at all because she isnt trying to move up in 2010 of all years.  She may be glad she's sitting this shit out and keeping herself viable for a later contest.  If we lose IL-Gov, then she'll be ready to take out Brady in 2014.  Same with Cory Booker in NJ, Tammy Baldwin and Ron Kind could both move up then with Kohl retiring and if Johnson won, any Dem can take out Whitman in 2014, etc.

And if the economy gets back to where it needs to be for Obama to win easily then he can bring a lot of Democrats back with him.  Im fully expecting a giant class of 2010 losers to be back and ready to go for the 2012 election.  Proven winners who will be able to fundraise extremely well, all tier one candidates for the most part.

[ Parent ]
Poor Lisa Madigan?
Screw her, she most likely cost us either a senate or governor seat, whichever she would have wanted. She is by far the most popular politician in the state of Illinois.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
more like lazy Lisa Madigan
I don't much follow Illinois politics but it looks to me like she doesn't want to have to make any tough decisions or run in any race that she could conceivably lose.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
There are always midigating factors
that you have no idea about. Besides she is very popular in the state and she would have been a lock in either won.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
The reason she didn't run for senate was because the DSCC couldn't force Giannoulias out
That's actually not up for discussion, there were plenty of articles about it at the time.

I'm sympathetic towards not wanting to deal with a drag-'em down primary, but in Madigan's case, it really was a matter of not wanting a competitive primary.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
She would have
easily wiped the floor with Alexi. She knew that and so did everyone else, that's not up for discussion. President Obama would have backed her and that would have been the end of it. She obviously did not want to enter the senate race at all. She has her eye on the Governors mansion one day and she will get it. If Brady wins, which seems likely, she will be the candidate against him in 2014. I can assure you of that. She will be Governor of Illinois by 2015.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Again, she didn't run in either race because she didn't want a competitive primary
Either against Giannoulias or Quinn, that's not up for discussion either. I wish there would be at least some acknowledgment that part of the reason she didn't run for either race was because she wouldn't have a cleared field (because she would've probably beaten Quinn too).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
More like
Madigating factors!

Don't know why, but your misspelling made me think of that terrible, terrible pun.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
I actually blame Hynes for this
I know a lot of people wanted Hynes to be the nominee, but those same people forget that Hynes was running a scorched earth campaign against Quinn (remember that a year ago, Quinn's approval ratings were pretty good and he was seen as a shoo-in for November). It's really hard to keep your numbers up after a fellow Democrat has been going for broke against you for a sustained period of time.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I disagree
I think the prison thing was fair game as undoubtedly Brady will cover it as well if he has not already. His approvals lowered then mainly do to it being in the heat of a competitive primary. It is my view that they would have rose but the fact that the economy was so horrible stunted that. It is easy to blame Hynes but Quinn let him define him, it is his own fault. Quinn really never really fought back. If you can't handle it in a primary you can't handle it in the general. I remember in KY-Sen last cycle people got upset when Fischer attacked Lunsford over his past business dealings with nursing homes, everyone called it unfair. Well it was a central issue in the general, an issue that helped give McConnell another term.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Way Better Numbers for Quinn
Maybe he'll pull it out after all. (I wouldn't bet on it though)
nearly a quarter of African-Americans voters were undecided.
Obama ads and/or campaigning here could help make sure they decide for the Dem and actually vote (I see that the poll is LV's, but still).
In any event, Obama ought to be working here anyway to avoid the massive embarrassment of his old Senate seat flipping to R.
I wonder
when SSP is going to realize it's BILL Brady, not BOB Brady.  They've done this in several posts.  Bob Brady is from PA-1
This is a peculiarity that addles only my brain
I'm really quite awful with names sometimes -- be it personal acquaintances or political candidates. I referred to Bill McCollum the other day as "Rick McCollum", and Joe Sestak in private conversation as "Pat Sestak" -- twice!
[ Parent ]
Pat Sestak
Isn't Pat Sestak the host of Wheel of Fortune? :)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Pat Sejack


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sajack not Sejack nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sajack '12!
Start the draft effort!

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
He's
a Republican and Canadian for that matter.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sajak is American.
Alex Trebek, though, is Canadian.
[ Parent ]
Yeah your right
They are easy to confuse.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sajack
At least with Pat Sajack, we wouldn't have to wonder who would be his running mate.  Sajack/White '12!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Well
White is probably a better pick than Palin.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
lol!
[ Parent ]
IL-Gov: Brady Up by 5 | 55 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox