Age

18-34 Griffith leads 49-37?
65+ Boucher leads 58-35?

SUSA continues to churn out some weird results in their age groups...

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 06:26:11 AM UTC

Race Disparity

Another interesting note: because Boucher is leading among whites by 52-39, we can assume (I'm not gonna bother with the math) that the race is within a few points among non-whites.

What? How is that possible?

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 06:29:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Because of a ridiculously small sample.

If you look at the raw numbers, they reached 18 black people, 11 of whom said they were supporting Griffith, while only 6 were supporting Boucher.  And among the 11 Hispanics they called, 9 were supporting Griffith, and ONE was supporting Boucher.

So Boucher is supposedly losing minorities to Griffith 54%-27%.  But that's what happens with polls when there's so few minorities there to begin with.  VA-09 is 94% white, only 3.9% black, and only 1.1% Hispanic.  A few conservative ones will swing the percentages wildly.  That, or some white dudes who pressed the number for "black" or "Hispanic" just to mess with the survey.  Who knows?

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by: BruinKid @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 12:18:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Notorious SUSA

They're notorious for Republicans winning far, far more of the AA vote than they ever do, or will.

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by: Paleo @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 12:27:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I guess I have to repeat myself again...

SUSA jumped the shark long ago. I really don't take their polls seriously any more. Their samples are always screwy, especially among young voters and minority voters. (How can we be MORE REPUBLICAN than the overall results?)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 13:54:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

SUSA's crosstabs have always been screwed up

especially among young voters and African-Americans. That doesn't mean they don't (somehow) come up with good results. There's a reason Nate ranks SUSA as the most accurate prolific pollster out there.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 14:38:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

that's because they only ask like 18 of them

and the margin of error is ridiculously high.  Im glad someone else still thinks these polls are reliable and I believe just about all of them.  But you just have to keep in mind the numbers and that when you adjust the numbers for demographic silliness, you literally move it by mere percentage points.  Maybe 3?  They're still good numbers for the most part.

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by: Andrew @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 20:13:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I could believe this for this district

It's an aging area with negative population growth. Most of the younger, white voters tend to be conservative, but unlike their parents they retain no attachment or loyalty to the Democratic party so in these cases the younger population is actually significantly more Republican friendly than older, former blue dog Democrats that are very familiar with Dems like Boucher.  

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by: jwaalk @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 07:52:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Point Taken

Understandable analysis. Any idea on my other point?

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 10:05:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well considering VA-09

is 94% white the minority voting crosstabs would be both highly volatile, very small, and in the end, not a major push in one direction or the other.  

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by: jwaalk @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 12:23:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Completely agree

You see this in many rural conservaDem districts.  The conservatives who came of age before Reagan tend to lean Democratic while the conservatives who came of age afterwards tend to lean Republican.

That said, calling either of them conservative really is stretching it.  From what I have seen, the pre-Reagan conservatives are not fiscally conservative at all, but very socially conservative.  This is opposed to the post-Reagan conservatives who are very libertarian like in their ideology.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 14:08:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Never trust crosstabs. nm

nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 14:58:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Additionally...

Along with your crosstab boilerplate, I insert my standard boilerplate against polls of large, rural House districts.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 15:19:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does anybody know how Bob McDonnell's government is doing in Virginia approval-wise?

Could Boucher possibly use Griffith's time in the state legislature as insulation?

Paint him as a "Richmond insider" or something.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

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by: lidem89 @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 10:41:23 AM UTC

No

idea. Besides that Confederacy flap, McDonnell has been very quiet nationally wise. Ironic, everyone thought Bob McDonnell would be the national star and Chris Christie would be another quiet GOP governor.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 12:25:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

McDonnell's been claiming to have created a budget surplus

which pretty much nobody believes; it's all budgetary smoke and mirrors.

That said, I doubt McDonnell's popularity is waning in the 9th. I'm not sure anyone's polled his approval ratings lately, but I imagine he's still in the honeymoon period; things will probably get rougher for him later in his term if the economy fails to improve, similarly to how Kaine's popularity plummeted (well, because of that and taking over at the DNC).

Boucher has already put out four ads, all positive spots about his bio (you'd think people would know him by now, but whatever), accomplishments, and independence. Griffith has only put out one introductory ad. They haven't started attacking each other yet, which makes sense: people don't start paying attention to races in Virginia until after Labor Day (probably because there are elections every damn year here). No need in being negative when it doesn't help you.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 12:48:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Depends on who you ask

Rasmussen has done two polls showing his approval in the mid-60s, once in the Spring and again in the late summer. The polling shop at Christopher Newport University showed him with a mixed 50%/48% rating in the early summer. And the Governor's political operation commissioned an internal poll showing his approval at 63% at the end of July. However, regardless of which one is closer to correct (or if its somewhere more in the middle), those are statewide totals and to the extent they are low, are dragged down by more urban voters in NoVa, Hampton Roads, and Richmond, and his approvals would be even higher in the 9th District.

Keep in mind that McDonnell won the 9th with 66% of the vote, even against a rural state legislator (albeit not from the rural 9th).

The problem with Griffith is that his district only covers a small portion of the 9th District, so he still has to introduce himself to most of the voters who all know Boucher well. By all accounts he's doing well, but this was never going to be an easy pickup.

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by: sspiker @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 18:41:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Means he's ahead by 20

Given SUSA's ridiculous Republican bias in this cycle, and their horrible performance in house races in '08.

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by: Paleo @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 12:28:38 PM UTC

I am amazed

that Boucher is receiving 25% of the GOP vote this year.  His vote against the health care bill may save him.  I think this is a good race to watch to track whether or not the situation gets worse for Dems or not.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

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by: AC1 @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 13:35:31 PM UTC

VA-09

I think this race is a great example why the bulk of Democratic losses are not going to be in conservaDem seats.  These voters might not like Obama, but they are not necessarily opposed to spending seeing their areas are so dependent on government spending.  Until you spend some time in one of these districts like I did when I lived in PA-12, you do not realize how dependent on government programs such regions are.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 14:14:16 PM UTC

Well

They probably think their representatives are more in line with their own views than a Republican would be, particularly in some of these traditionally Democratic conservative seats with long-serving members. Most likely, moderate and progressive Democrats in swing districts are going to take the brunt of any wave unfortunately.

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by: Progressive America @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 16:05:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Loses

Moderate and progressive Democrats in swing districts are going to be the first batch of incumbents to be sunk.  Especially those elected within the last 2 or 3 cycles.  

This will really hurt the moderate and progressive factions of the party as some of their rising stars strangled in the political crib.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 16:26:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed.

The myth that the "wave" starts with Minnick, Bright, Edwards, Boucher, and those sitting in really Republican districts is just false. Granted, some of them might go down, but it's more likely that the HCR supporters and cap and trade supporters of the world, who shouldn't have voted for them in the first place, will go down.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 16:37:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I doubt it mattered

The Democrats were right in voting for legislation that inspired them to run for Congress in the first place. If there is a wave, it will be because of the persisting poor economic situation, not because of a health care or environmental vote. Many Democrats in Republican-leaning or swing districts, meanwhile, will survive due to the nature of their districts and connections with constituents. Without these connections, they could easily lose even while voting against health care.

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by: Progressive America @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 16:45:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah but this is what always happens

My feeling is that many of these seats will be gradually won back over several cycles. And ultimately, any recently elected Democratic Congressional members in swing districts who survive this year will likely have strong futures. In the end, representatives in swing districts have to understand that their careers could be over in any year and as a consequence, it should encourage them to vote with their conscious, thereby leaving a legacy of accomplishment, as Perriello, Boccieri, and Markey have done. Democrats in swing districts should have really been focused on getting the best jobs legislation possible passed, but unfortunately the Blue Dogs harmed them on this point.

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by: Progressive America @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 16:40:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its

not the blue dogs you have to worry about. It's the 41 seat Republican majority in the US Senate that prevents any job legislation even watered down ones from getting through.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 16:46:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's both

A combination of the now constantly filibustering Republicans in the Senate and Blue Dogs have both worked to block numerous legislative initiatives from being strong or being passed at all. The main relevant point here is that I think the presence of an economic recovery would have changed the fortunes of many Democrats in swing seats regardless of the health care or cap and trade votes. And I am not sure why everyone portrays cap and trade as a harmful vote. There is much evidence now, including various public polls, that Americans are receptive to climate legislation. It will be a voter enthusiasm wave that brings many Democrats down rather than public opinion on a variety of issues. The public is with the Democrats on most of the important issues, including in swing districts.

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by: Progressive America @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 17:08:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cap and trade

is part of the Republicans message of the "Nancy Pelosi energy-killing" scheme. Rick Boucher got away with supporting cap and trade, but I'm sure there are plenty of Democrats who voted for it, and that will be used against them.

If you are in an R+5 to D+5 district, Democratic turnout brought you in in 2008, and decreased Democratic turnout means you are going to be in a tough election in 2010. If you are Bobby Bright or Walt Minnick, you are used to low Democratic turnout.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 18:19:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Of course it's going to be used against them,

but just because Republicans use it against them does not mean it would really make a difference anyway. If Republicans go on to pick up a lot of seats, it will not be because of their message, but rather just circumstantial luck. The public hates the Republican message and platform as seen with their negative approval ratings. Cap and trade or not, the conservative base will turn out in any of these districts.

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by: Progressive America @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 19:02:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's right.

And technically repealing healthcare is going to increase the deficit. And technically cap and trade isn't bad either. But the American voter is not the smartest, and the Democrats have a bad messaging problem.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Sat Sep 04, 2010 at 19:07:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Healthcare

I am not convinced the Republicans will even try to repeal the healthcare bill.  From an electoral perspective, it might be better to try and fail, which will be the case, then basically run it on a shoe string budget so people hate it so much they can run against it again.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Sun Sep 05, 2010 at 00:13:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Redistricting Impact

I read somewhere that Griffith is using this race as sort of a test run for the 2012 election.  Redistricting will occur before 2012 and I think Boucher could have a much tougher race then.  If Griffith runs in 2012, one thing to his advantage would most likely be not having to face the charge of being a carpetbagger to the district.  The district barely excludes Griffith's residence.  It probably would include it in 2012 due to the district needing to gain constituents.  Griffith could be running in a more favorable district in 2012 due to the population loss.  The two districts the 9th would be able to absorb partially are the 5th and 6th districts, both of which are very favorable to Republican candidates.  Their western portions, which would be the ones that would be potentially merged with the 9th, are mostly Republican with the notable exceptions being cities such as Martinsville and Roanoke City.  Republicans, like in the last redistricting, will be able to exert control over the process.  They don't hold the trifecta of power (Governor, House of Delegates, and State Senate) like they did in the last redistricting but they hold two out of the three with the Democrats being in control of the State Senate.  What changes do you see for the Ninth District after redistricting?

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by: mdouglas @ Sun Sep 05, 2010 at 21:33:21 PM UTC

I've wondered about Democrats

maybe pushing for the ninth to absorb Roanoke City and Charlottesville while losing some of the more hardcore rural areas, or maybe just going as far as Lynchburg. I know it doesn't look pretty, but if Perriello loses, it would be a workable compromise for Republicans I think.  

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by: jwaalk @ Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 11:44:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No matter who controls the process

No matter who decides the lines, the only possible way for the 9th to expand is to eat into the 5th and 6th. And while those are generally Republican areas, the more important matter is that these are areas that have no loyalty to Boucher, unlike some of the panhandle counties that have known him for ever.

Since VA state leg elections are in odd numbered years, Griffith loses nothing by running this year. I'd expect to see him run a positive, introductory campaign through Election Day, letting outside and national groups, to the extent they want to get involved, hit Boucher on cap and trade and other issues. Then in 2012, with Obama on the top of the ticket, Griffith can run again (still as House Majority Leader) after spending the previous two years continuing to introduce himself to the voters.

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by: sspiker @ Sun Sep 05, 2010 at 22:07:30 PM UTC