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KY-03: Yarmuth Up by Only 2 Points

by: James L.

Thu Sep 02, 2010 at 7:11 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (8/31-9/1, likely voters, no trend lines):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 47
Todd Lally (R): 45
Ed Martin (L): 1
Michael Hansen (I): 1
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Let's take stock of the polling situation:

  • In early August, Braun Research, polling for local cable news kings cn|2, gave Yarmuth a 52-29 lead over Lally in early August.
  • A Yarmuth internal by Cooper & Secrest conducted in late June showed Yarmuth up by 58-32.
  • A Lally internal by the obscure Rivercity Polling group, which was conducted over a period of nine days in late June, found Yarmuth up by only 44-43.

Let's take a look at how SUSA's estimation of the LV universe has shifted over the past three cycles:

Nov-06 Oct-08 Aug-10
Democrat 54% 57% 50%
Republican 33% 35% 40%
Independent 12% 8% 8%
Liberal 18% 20% 12%
Moderate 43% 44% 41%
Conservative 39% 31% 40%

I'm not saying that's right, but I am saying that's scary!

(Hat-tip: Kendall)
James L. :: KY-03: Yarmuth Up by Only 2 Points
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KY-03: Yarmuth Up by Only 2 Points | 22 comments
That's definitely not right in this district
I'm quite sure more than....TWELVE percent of the voters will be liberals here.

Considering that, Yarmuth will be fine.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

It's not right...
I'm willing to believe a lot, but I don't believe Yarmuth will lose.

In another thread (the one about the Perrillo poll), DCCyclone has a really good post about why these Survey USA numbers are so out of whack. Basically, they employ a decent screen, but don't do any adjusting for demographics or past voting patterns. So, it's producing some very pro-Republican results right now, since Republicans are the ones answering their polls.

(I think I got that right, anyway. Hopefully DC will weigh in if I didn't).  

In the same thread
Silver Spring lists the number of polls they got wrong favoring Dems in 2008. Maybe now, as in 2008, they are picking up a bigger wave than is really there because of the fact they don't weight. In other words the "bias" is with the party advancing. Their polls are leaning Republican this year without a doubt. Certainly more than almost every other company.
[ Parent ]
Will Yarmuth run that far behind Conway?
Even if Conway loses the Senate race by 10 points, he'll carry the third district solidly.  Lally would have to get a lot of Conway votes to win here.
Absolutely not!
SUSA just lost it... Their credibility, that is. Actually, they lost it LONG ago...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I'm not buying it...
No way in hell young voters in Louisville are THIS pro-Republican! (The internals are just whacked out in this "poll"!) SUSA jumped the shark long ago, and I stopped taking them seriously.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
If memory serves...
If memory serves, Kentucky reports fairly early because their polls close at 6 o'clock ET. Yarmuth had beaten Northrup in 2006 by 4 or 5 o'clock my time in California, and all the pundits knew a national wave was building. If on election night, Yarmuth loses, I'd have to say we've lost the House. The fact that the polling is so close right now shows that if the election were today, there'd be a 50% chance we'd lose the House. Hopefully, things calm down for the Dems by early November.

But the Yarmuth seat will be the early indicator. It's seats like his which will mean the difference for us between being in the majority or not come January 2011.

If Yarmuth loses, we wont have the votes to sustain a veto
Seriously.
[ Parent ]
Good point
n/t
[ Parent ]
They had worse numbers for Heinrich
Down 51-45. Since then three polls have him up 12, 6 and 7. The first a Dem poll, the latter being a GOP internal. Again, spot the outlier?
This
seems a bit odd to say the least. Still the Mayor numbers seem about right. The Braun poll showed Fischer leading by 6 points and in this poll he leads by two. So maybe a bit to the right but the Mayors numbers give this poll a bit more credibility. Still the mood would have to be horrible for Yarmuth to lose. This may be close after all but Yarmuth has spent no money so far, give him time to define Lally. He has the money to do so.  I wish PPP would poll here.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Not that Democratic of a district
Again I think you guys are missing something here.  Remember the Republicans held this seat until January 2007.  A lot of people are assuming districts like this are now and will always be Democratic.  This district went Republican 5 out of the last 7 congressional elections and only fell in two of the worst years in a generation for Republicans.

Yarmuth won by a pretty high margin in 2008, but it was a 51 to 48 race in 2006.  Northup got 60 percent of the vote in 2004.  Clearly this district has a tendency to vote Republican.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

And before that
It was Democratic since the 70's.
[ Parent ]
True, but...
This district used to be substantially smaller and cover the more liberal portions of Jefferson County before the 1990 Census and the retirement of Ron Mazzoli.  The Republicans have done pretty well in the currently configured KY-3.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Northup
was a great Congresswoman. Seriously she was great. I am not talking about votes or anything but she brought home the bacon and people did not forget it. She was personally popular and her work on the bridges project was seen as successful. Had she not been so Bush friendly, seriously she never backed down from Bush, she would have won. This was one of the few open districts that we carried in 95, and has been historically Democratic. From what I have heard Ward ran a half assed gaffe prone campaign in 96 and like I previously said  Northup proved to be an effective Congresswoman and was able to hold on plain and simple. Yarmuth will face a close-ish election do to the mood not because the district is historically Republican. You see many people in historically blue areas facing tough elections do to the mood as well this year. I will admit I thought Yarmuth was immune, I guess I thought wrong. I still think he wins though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Still likely Democratic
Until I see more polling, I am leaving likely Democratic, but its plausible that it could go Republican.  I might move it to Lean Democratic if I see more polling in a week or two saying otherwise.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Well I agree with you there. I wouldn't call it "safe" anyway, yes "likely" is right. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Kerry beat Bush in this district, and Obama won it in a blowout, soooooo...
...it's got a clear Dem lean.  Yes Northup's ability to win there and hold it for 12 years proves it's a swing more than blue, but it's a clear blue lean nonetheless.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Yes
Anywhere that Kerry won in the South in 2004 can certainly be classified as leaning Dem.  
[ Parent ]
Well within SUSA's 34 point margin of error
The margin they had Virgil Goode ahead by in August 2008.
Even if you take it at face
Its still a decent poll for Yarmuth.  Compared to Lally:

1.  He has more room to grow to consolidate Dem support than Lally does with GOP support.
2.  Lally leads by 15 points with Indies, that's not too likely to get noticeably worse.  
3.  Yarmuth only gets 77% of the black vote, so that might have room to grow.
4.  MoE is 4.3% so it could range anywhere from a 10% Yarmuth lead to a Lally 6-7% lead.

Also, I'm not too familiar with Kentucky.  Is there a specific reason why Lally would be doing SO WELL with the 18-34 crowd?  Why would that group be so anti-Yarmuth when Yarmuth carries every age group over 35?

Because...
in the subgroup of 18-34 voters, it was based on only 98 people, so that subgroup has a huge 10% margin of error.  (OK, 9.899% to be more precise.)  So Lally could be leading by only 48%-43%.  Still somewhat unreasonable, but at the edge of the margin of error for the small subgroup.

But more importantly, because Yarmuth is up in all the other age groups, we can probably say it was simply a bad subsample.  It happens.

[ Parent ]
KY-03: Yarmuth Up by Only 2 Points | 22 comments

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