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SSP Daily Digest: 8/31

by: Crisitunity

Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 3:42 PM EDT


WI-Sen: Know how you can tell that this hypocrisy-on-government-aid problem (see the last couple digests for backstory... Ron Johnson's company Pacur has been repeatedly expanded with the help of government loans, y'know, the kind that of meddling in the free market that we have to get rid of) is putting a scare into the Johnson camp? Now he's been rewriting history on Pacur's website to adjust the founding date of his company, from 1977 to 1979. Johnson had previously claimed that the railroad spur built (with federal help, natch) to his company was in early '79, before Pacur was founded. (Pacur's predecessor company was founded in '77; it changed names in '79.)

CO-Gov (pdf): Republican pollster Magellan is out with a new look at the Colorado gubernatorial race; they find the combined Dan Maes + Tom Tancredo vote still less than the John Hickenlooper vote. It's Hickenlooper 46, Maes 27, Tancredo 17. (That's a lot fewer undecideds than today's Rasmussen poll; see below.)

FL-Gov: Ah, the sweet smell of unity. Well, sort of... the state party finally got around to having its fete for newly-minted gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott, the one canceled last week for lack of, well, unity. Insiders like state House speaker Dean Cannon and next state Senate president Mike Haridopolos toasted Scott, despite the fact that up until last Tuesday they were working hard to defeat him. There was someone important missing, though, that kind of defeats that whole "unity" thing... it was Bill McCollum, who confirmed yet again today that he's "staying out of" the governor's race. Meanwhile, DGA head Nathan Daschle (here's a guy who knows how the game is played) is out with a bit of concern trolling of his own, offering unsolicited advice to RGA head Haley Barbour and other interested Republicans that they probably don't want to be seen campaigning next to Scott.

NM-Gov: Biden alert! The Veep will be bringing his patented comedic stylings to the Land of Enchantment to host a fundraiser for Diane Denish, whose once slam-dunk gubernatorial bid has deteriorated into a jump-ball.

NY-Gov: State GOP party chair Ed Cox is having a helping heaping of crow from breakfast, having to get behind Rick Lazio for the GOP gubernatorial nod... out of fear of the possibility of the even more objectionable Carl Paladino winding up with the nomination. (Remember, Cox recruiting Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy to not only get in the race but switch parties to do so, only to watch him crash and burn.) Cox issued a letter urging local party leaders to get behind Cox, filled with magnanimous praise, perhaps none more so than when he calls Lazio "credible."

AR-04: Rounding out their tour of the state, Talk Business Journal/Hendrix College take a look at the 4th, the only non-open seat in all of Arkansas. Despite the rough poll numbers that they found for the Dem candidates in the 1st and 2nd, they find Mike Ross in solid shape, probably thanks to an underwhelming opponent in the form of Beth Anne Rankin. Ross leads 49-31, with 4 going to Green candidate Joshua Drake.

FL-08: In yet another example of Alan Grayson zigging when other Dems zag, he's out with an internal poll, and it puts him in surprisingly strong shape against Daniel Webster, thanks in large part to a strong performance by "other" (presumably the Tea Party candidate). The PPP poll gives Grayson a 40-27 lead over Webster, with 23 for "Other" and 11 undecided. That's all in the face of a new ad campaign from Americans for Prosperity, who are out with ads in the Orlando market attacking both Grayson and FL-24's Suzanne Kosmas. (AFP, of course, is the front group for the right-wing billionaire Koch family, and the DCCC has recently filed IRS complaints against AFP for engaging in political advocacy despite its tax-exempt status.)

FL-22: Allen West is out with a second TV ad focusing on economic issues, like that burdensome debt. (He's talking about national debt, not his own debts.) Still, most of the buzz in this race right now seems to be about his latest round of unhinged remarks on his campaign website's blog, in which he called opponent Ron Klein, calling him, among other things, a "cretin," "little Lord Ron," a "pathetic liberal," "little Ronnie," and "a mama's boy" to Nancy Pelosi.

IA-05: Rep. Steve King declined to debate opponent Matt Campbell in about the douchiest way possible: when Campbell showed up at a King town hall to ask King why he wasn't willing to debate, King said that Campbell had "not earned it."

MI-01, MI-07: Well, it looks like the fake Tea Party is truly finished in Michigan. The Michigan Court of Appeals today upheld the Board of Canvassers' decision them off the ballot because of irregularities in submitted signatures. There were Tea Party candidates ready to go in the 1st and the 7th, both competitive districts where Dems would be glad to have some right-wing votes siphoned off from the GOP candidates.

MO-04: Rep. Ike Skelton is the chair of the House Armed Services Committee, and he wants you to know it. Instead of focusing on the endless jobs-jobs-jobs mantra like many Dems, he's focusing on military issues and his commitment to veterans. His first two ads featured testimonials from a Marine mother and an Army veteran, and his third ad attacked GOP opponent Vicky Hartzler over her apparently insufficient support of the military.

NC-11: Two Democratic House members out with internals? Let's hope this is actually a trend. Buried in a CQ article about his new TV ad (with a buy in the "high five digits"), there are also some details about Heath Shuler's most recent internal poll. The poll, taken by Anzalone-Liszt, gives Shuler a 51-34 lead over Jeff Miller. More ads are likely to follow, as Shuler leads Miller in the cash department, $1.4 million to $70K.

NY-13: Rep. Mike McMahon's getting some big name help on the stump. Bill Clinton will join McMahon for a Friday rally on Staten Island.

NY-20: Scott Murphy's dipping into his big war chest with another TV spot, this one focusing on his job-preserving efforts. Murphy opponent Chris Gibson, meantime, dropped a bombshell in his first debate against Murphy last week: that government intervention exacerbated the Great Depression rather than mitigated it (a theory advanced by Amity Schlaes and approximately, oh, zero other respected economists).

PA-10: What's up with former US Attorneys in Pennsylvania turning out to be thin-skinned, poor campaigners? There's the Mary Beth Buchanan implosion, of course, but now video has turned up of Tom Marino's recent encounter with protesters at a Williamsport appearance. Marino yells back to protestors "What do you do for a job?" and "What kind of welfare are you on?" (No word on whether these questions were punctuated with "You hippies!")

VA-05: Here's a guy we haven't thought about in a long time: Ross Perot. Yet, Tom Perriello is dusting off Perot and holding him up as a guy he liked, especially in terms of his deficit hawkishness. He did so in the context of meeting with the local Tea Partiers (where he also reiterated his support for canning the Geithner/Summers economic team), probably in an effort to find some common ground with them.

State legislatures: The DLCC has a memorandum out that lays out where they'll be focusing their efforts this year (and thus what they consider to be the most competitive state legislative chambers). The 10 chambers they're emphasizing on defense are the Alabama Senate, Colorado Senate, Indiana House, Nevada Senate, New Hampshire Senate, New York Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, Wisconsin Assembly, and Wisconsin House. They're also going on the offense in the Michigan Senate, Kentucky Senate, Tennessee House, and Texas House..

WA-Init: SurveyUSA has polls of a handful of initiatives that'll be on the ballot in November. Most significantly, they find continued (although reduced, from their previous poll) support for I-1098, which would create a state income tax for high earners. It's currently passing, 41-33. Meanwhile, Washingtonians quite literally want to have their cake and eat it too: they're favoring I-1107, by a 42-34 margin, which would end sales taxes on candy and end temporary taxes on bottled water and soft drinks.

Dave's App: Just in time for the school year, here's a new time-wasting opportunity: Dave's Redistricting Application now has partisan data for Pennsylvania. (There's also partisan data for CA, MD, NC, NM, NY, and TX.)

Polltopia: PPP wants to know where you think they should poll next. Interesting options include Maine and West Virginia (where there's the tantalizing prospect of House races being polled, too).

Ads:
MO-Sen: Anti-Roy Blunt ad from Robin Carnahan
NH-Gov: Positive jobs-jobs-jobs spot from John Lynch
FL-02: Allen Boyd hits Steve Southerland on Social Security privatization, 17th Amendment
IN-09: Anti-Baron Hill from Todd Young
IN-09: Anti-Todd Young ad from Baron Hill (Social Security privatization... sensing a theme here?)
MN-06: Bio ad from Tarryl Clark
MN-06: Michele Bachmann wants you to know that she hates taxes
NJ-12: Emergency Committee for Israel ad against Rush Holt ("modest but real" buy)
OH-15: Positive bio ad about Steve Stivers' military service
PA-11: Paul Kanjorski's first TV ad, hitting Lou Barletta over what a shithole Hazleton is
SC-05: Bio ad from Mick Mulvaney (his first ad)
WI-07: DCCC ad attacking Sean Duffy over Social Security privatization (their first independent expenditure ad anywhere)

Rasmussen:
CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 36%, Dan Maes (R) 24%, Tom Tancredo (C) 14%
OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman (R) 44%
PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 39%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/31
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Grayson
Don't know about anybody else but that poll doesn't exactly fill me with confidence.

Agreed
That poll is worse than something showing him narrowly behind because it smells.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I was just about to write something about this
23% for other seems way too steep.

The other internal from Heath Schuler seems much more believable.  


[ Parent ]
Smells bad
No way 'Other' is getting 23%.

[ Parent ]
May Be More Telling
He's at 40 in his own internal.

[ Parent ]
Disagree
Schuler has a HUGE motive in putting out polls showing is underfunded opponent trailing. His number 1 priority has to be to keep his fund raising advantage over Miller.

Leaking a poll showing him crushing Miller is his way of trying to get GOP donors to stay away. If I was running Heath Schuler's campaign I would dummy up a poll like this and leak it so as to hurt Miller's fund raising.

And with only $70k in the bank it's not like Miller has the cash to put out an opposing poll.

So I'd take this poll with a grain of salt.

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[ Parent ]
So you
believe that weird SurveyUSA poll? PoS polled this race at the beginning of the summer and found the Democrat +12.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I stick by what I said before
Schuler might have a tough race, but I firmly believe he's ahead and this poll isn't that far off.  

[ Parent ]
PPP tweets that....
...their Ohio poll is going to be as ugly as Gallup's 10 point generic ballot, yesterday.  Considering that their polling was very ugly to begin with BEFORE the likely voter model, I'm afraid to even look.

In Ohio or in general?
I didn't think it was that bad. Jensen is more polite than me be he also says the base has to "get off their asses" or meltdown is imminent.  

[ Parent ]
We're getting the point where we're going to have to highlight Rasmussen
Just to make ourselves feel better. (e.g. their take on the Toomey-Sestak race was much better than the Reuters take)  

[ Parent ]
It's definitely odd...
... Rasmussen's numbers have lately been looking much better for us. Closer races in PA, CO than before, for example, and a much closer generic ballot race.

Tom Jensen says that his Ohio poll - to be sure, of Likely Voters - shows them preferring Bush over Obama 50-42.  


[ Parent ]
The DCCC is digging up a lot of dirt on some candidates, not just Sean Duffy.
On their youtube channel, they have a lot of recent clips of Sandy Adams (FL-24) and Jesse Kelly (AZ-08) saying controversial things.  http://www.youtube.com/user/DC...

Also, Harry Reid is out with another ad against Sharron Angle.  This one uses the testimony of an unemployed person and plays three clips of Sharron Angle saying she opposes extending unemployment benefits and that unemployed are spoiled.



Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Apparently, Sandy Adams has said quite a bit of things that can be used against her.
Apparently, she opposes the 16th and 17th Amendments, opposes the Dept. of Education, would support eliminating the National Park system, and claims that some Michigan cities are under Sharia Law (seriously, why do right-wingers' conspiracy theories constantly bring up Sharia Law?).



Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Sandy Adams could be Kosmas' Sharron Angle.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Generic ballot
Outside chance the status quo has flipped. For years generic Dem would beat generic Rep for Congress and the White House but GOP attacks often painted a picture that put people off. Maybe turning the tables is at least possible in enough races to make a difference. Grasping at straws perhaps but I like to remain optimistic.

[ Parent ]
Don't know if this is grasping a straws...
Some of these candidates really do seem unelectable in any environment. I thought Sandy Adams was supposed to be the moderate in that race?  

[ Parent ]
I thought Craig Miller was the moderate in the race.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Apparently you were right


[ Parent ]
Sure
They have some real doozies that will cost them seats. I'm certain of it. Scarily though some will win regardless. Yikes!

[ Parent ]
I think a better possibility...
... is that the GOP is getting oversold at this point. The generic ballot lead is so high, yet their negatives so high, that it wouldn't shock me for the spread to narrow significantly as election day approaches.

This would, admittedly, fly in the face of most midterm elections, where the out-party usually gains a few points on Election Day compared to their generic ballot polling. But it would be consistent with lots of individual and high-profile races, where polling blowouts usually narrow towards the end.

Still, there's not much there but hunch and some historical examples that may not be applicable. And even if the House popular vote on Election Day narrows to something like a 49-46 GOP lead, that would STILL be consistent with them retaking the House under most models.  


[ Parent ]
Actuallly, the GOP needs a 4 - 5 point lead in the generic ballot
to retake the House.

I've written a bit about it earlier, with ref to Gallup (suggesting 4 points)

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

and 538 (the data I've seen so far

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

including some interesting studies from Andrew Gelman http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~...

Unfortunately, it includes this nugget that you've alluded to

In particular, the out-party consistently outperforms the generic polls.

Gelman suggests that a 6 point margin would be enough to overcome incumbency effects. But the variable is overall candidate quality. So if all 435 Rs were Tea Party nuts, that margin --might-- be higher.


[ Parent ]
What would that mean for the race?
Was Chiles drawing from both parties?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Also, I hope Chiles backs Sink if he exits.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
According to PPP, Chiles drew more GOP support than Democratic
That was a Sink-Rick Scott matchup.

[ Parent ]
I've always said Chiles was a Scott Plant....
So it would make sense if he was pulling more from Scott that he drop out.  Chiles has personal money issues, I don't doubt Scott would have paid him to run if he was going to steal votes from Sink.  

[ Parent ]
Chiles said
he's getting out because he doesn't want to create a situation where Rick Scott is governor of Florida.  If he's a plant, he's a really shitty one.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
So, that sounds like he may endorse Sink.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I suspect it might help Sink
Scott appears to be a much more polarizing figure than Sink, and if Chiles withdraws the anti-Scott vote will no longer be split. He may have been drawing more from Rs than Ds, but my guess would be that a lot of his R supporters really can't stand Scott and will throw protest votes or switch to Sink.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
If true, GOPVOTER will be disappointed.
He backed Chiles over that criminal a-wipe Scott.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Ugh.
Guess I'm stuck with Rick.

[ Parent ]
Geez, the Republicans hold the legislature.
It's not like Sink winning will shift the balance of power by much.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Apparently
Apparently, Chiles realized his plan to flip the bird at the Florida Democratic Party was backfiring to the detriment of the GOP candidate!

[ Parent ]
Good
better for a straight up fight against scott, regardless of what polls may say now.

[ Parent ]
The PoliticalWire thread has some fun comments
Including this gem:

"Better yet, [Murkowski] and McCollum could start a support group for Teabagged Republicans... Bob Inglis, Bob Bennett, Rob Simmons, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Tom Campbell, Jane Norton and Scott McInnis would all be members... Arlen Specter would have observer status..."

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Talk about asinine.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
from the link
MADISON, Wis. - A Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor has begun running ads in which he dons boxing gloves and vows to "go the distance" against the likely Democratic nominee, who was viciously beaten outside a fairground last year and left with serious injuries.


[ Parent ]
Most Interesting Nugget
DCCC's first ad is in WI-7. That tells you more about where the pros think the state of play is than anything else.

Wouldn't read too much into that
If anything Duffy had a jump start on fundraising since Obey retired late.

[ Parent ]
In Ohio
voters would rather have Bush by a 50-42 margin, upcoming on a PPP poll. I think we need to forget about OH.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

how fucking stupid could they be?


[ Parent ]
Short memories
When the present is bad people quite often look back on the past more fondly than they otherwise would. In other words, yeah, fucking stupid.

[ Parent ]
I think it's more a matter of emotions dominating impulsive pushing of buttons on phone keypads......
I think people answer questions much more impulsively when doing so by pressing buttons on a telephone keypad in response to an automated prompt, than when queried by a live caller.  Even further, people answer questions more impulsively in any telephone survey than when pausing to think things through.

All that said, I think PPP and others read too much into the results of the false Obama-Bush choice in the PPP Ohio poll.  It's not a real question people ponder, so people answer impulsively based on anger or frustration or disappointment in Obama, without considering whether they'd make that choice in real life.  It's the same impulse that drives ridiculous numbers of people to say "yes" when asked whether "Obama is the anti-Christ" or so many other ridiculous conspiracy (dictionary-word, not our beloved SSPer) questions.

And that being the case, I don't think the Obama-Bush result tells us anything we didn't know:  Obama has become unpopular by a clear plurality of voters, overwhelmingly because of the bad economy for which they now blame him after a year-and-a-half of his administration.  And further their emotions are driven by their economic heartache of the moment, less than by cognitive considerations of how we got here.

So things are likely looking worse for Strickland and Fisher than the last PPP poll......we could have guessed that solely from the bad economic news the past month or two.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Actually, Color Me Wrong
Regarding your last paragraph, I really thought the economic cake was baked, and that any marginal good or bad economic news would neither help nor hurt, respectively. (And really the "bad" economic news has only been marginal. There's been no double dip or 2008 style credit freeze.)

Even still, I thought Rust Belt Democrats would actually be well-positioned to talk about local issues a la PA-12. I thought if there was additional econ. damage it would hurt Exurban Democrats.


[ Parent ]
Early on, I thought Ohio would actually be a bright spot...
... because it's economy has been s***ty for so long, and the recession there was so deep, that manufacturing and job growth in Ohio was actually well ABOVE that national average this past year.  

[ Parent ]
My Thoughts Too
I thought if there were additional damage, it would be in places that were hoping for a (reasonably) quick recovery, and damage would be less severe in places that had that expectation dashed a while ago.

Not the first time I've been wrong.


[ Parent ]
I think the implosion is not among rust belt Democrats
Things have been terrible in the Rust Belt for decades.  These are regions that have experienced systematic long term unemployment for a very long time.

Where I think people are starting to crack is more suburban areas.  Sure unemployment might be in the mid-single digits in these areas, but unemployment is almost unknown in these areas before the recession.  Several people I know who voted for Obama have shared with me their dismay of voting Democratic.  Pretty much all of them started voting Democratic when the Republicans went off the deep end culturally, but they feel like their wallets are hurting under Democratic rule while they were doing well under Republican rule.  I was surprised as even though I am a Republican, I thought the Democrats did a far better job of bringing these people into their coalition in a more concrete fashion.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
People are very poor at judging...
... how they WILL think about something in the future or how the USED to think about something in the past, and equally bad at predicting how they would act in hypothetical situations.

The truth is, polls in early 2009 said people expected the economy to get far worse and that it would take years to recover. But they gave Obama high marks regardless and said he'd need time. One-and-a-half years later things are going just about as people expected they would, yet their approvals for Obama are well below what they used to be.

Also, the PPP poll is going to be of Likely Voters. Tom urges Dems to get off their asses, and what the illustrates is that these bleak numbers are being driven every bit as much by Democratic voters simply not caring or tuning it.

Slightly off-topic: one thing that annoys me immensely about the activist left is the assumption that the base not being enthused = THEM not being happy about their pet causes being pursued. I actually agree with many of the netroots' specific policy critiques, but there's a whole lot of idiotic self-importance there. The base of the Democratic Party are working-class and minority voters, and the reasons they aren't turning out AREN'T because there wasn't a public option or because DADT wasn't lifted: it's because (a) those voters ALWAYS turn out less in a midterm, and (b) that's being exacerbated this year because those are the voters being most hard-hit by the recession, meaning they have little time to care or focus on politics.  


[ Parent ]
^^^^^^THIS!!!.....everyone please read especially the first 2 paragraphs. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
MI-Supreme Court and MI-07, MI-01
There's still an outside shot (or perhaps not so outside now) that the Michigan Tea Party could get on the ballot. Though their appeal was denied unanimously by the Michigan CoA, they are appealing to the Michigan Supreme Court. This is where it gets interesting.

Last week Elizabeth Weaver, a Republican appointee who had been veering to the left more and more amid spats with the other Republican justices on the Supreme Court, cut a deal with Jennifer Granholm to resign on the condition that Granholm appoint a new judge from Northern Michigan (Weaver's home region). This Granholm did, appointing Judge Alton Davis to replace Weaver on the Supreme Court. This finally gives Democrats a working 4-3 majority on the Michigan Supreme Court, as opposed to the sort of unspoken deal that Weaver had with the Dems before to vote with them on important things. Therefore, given their new majority, it's entirely possible that the new Dem majority on the court could take the fake Tea Party's side and put them on the ballot. Who knows.


That's kind of cynical
I doubt a supreme court justince would turn a blind eye to the law and put a party on the ballot that didn't deserve it.  I've seen nor heard no evidence that they actually should be on the ballot.

[ Parent ]
MI Supreme Court and election law
Actually, the Tea Party should be on the ballot if the law were followed carefully; the law is in an admittedly messed up state partly because previous (Republican) Michigan Supreme Court Justices have indeed placed party loyalty above the law, and now we're stuck with their precedents.  This case will probably just make things worse.

[How do we get such irresponsible justices?  Well, we elect them in a supposedly non-partisan manner, but to get on the ballot in the first place, they have to be nominated at a party convention, where often only the most hard-core of partisans will have a voice.]

Previous court rulings have held that the board of canvassers has no authority to look at anything but the signatures; it doesn't even matter if they were collected in an explicitly fraudulent matter.  

Nobody has even claimed there were problems with the signatures.  The board of canvassers was therefore required by (previous interpretation of the) law to approve the party.  The Republican appointees voted against inclusion anyhow; their excuse was that there was inconsistent capitalization of the word "the".  

The appeals court didn't say anything about signatures, and also didn't say anything about capitalization, but apparently did say that the font size (or face) was wrong, and that this was enough to give the canvassers discretion after all.

Sample articles with more info:
http://michiganliberal.com/dia...
http://michiganliberal.com/dia...

Of course, since the newest member of the Supreme Court is a Democrat (though probably not one who could have been selected at a party convention), and he is about to face "re"-election as an "incumbent", highlighting the partisan nature of the court just now may also be a bad idea.


[ Parent ]
Now if this happened
This would be one of the greatest abominations committed against democracy and one of the most breath-taking abuses of judicial power I've ever seen.

If this happened, and as a GOPer, diminished electoral hopes would be the very least of my worries.

I think sometimes some people on here, (me included) go a bit to far considering electoral senarioes.


[ Parent ]
Wow, When did most of SSPers go Tekzilla on me?
This is just one poll, and that Ohio poll question really has no bearing on the election that will be held in November.

The Iraq War is Formally over, and democrats usually see a bump (as seen in 06 and 08) in Mid-September.  If the situation then is the same as right now, then we may be screwed, but I have a feeling things will get better.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


Right first. Wrong second.
Bush isn't on the ballot. It won't be on the election.

But if Bush is favored 50-42, what will Portman be up by? Kasich? Obviously, OH-SEN is now Lean Republican. Fisher has no resources & money to run a campaign. It sucks, because we've got so many competitive House races. (OH-01, OH-13, OH-15, OH-16) I think that's it.

Do you really think that The Iraq War being over is going to help anyone? I think that if that came with a new job it might.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


[ Parent ]
Actually
I think the war ending will hurtObama and Dems. Sure, its a popular position, but not many people know the war is ending now. Its bad timing again for the White House. With the Hurricane, the war ending is largely being drowned out. What most people will see is when the soldiers get back and gather unemployment, unemployment numbers will go waay up.  

[ Parent ]
Hurt? I think you mean 'have no effect.'


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It may balance out
The one thing that will help them is that  they may be back too late and apply to late for unemployment for the effects to be seen before November, and then there are another 2 years for the economy to turn back around.  

[ Parent ]
Without seeing PPPs sample
it's silly to even comment on it.  

It likely will reflect more on his inconsistent company than reality, but there is no way to know since Jensen is prone to making these oddball comments before he releases a poll.


[ Parent ]
I know you hate polls that show Obama turnout really low.
But the last PPP poll showed an Obama +6 electorate in an Obama +5 state. And don't forget PPP just switched to likely voters.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Yes and I said so
Now we have to look at what this poll says.

That last one had a 2% McCain no-show rate, the only time they have had a lower Mccain turnout was in the Alaska poll of yesterday.

I suspect this sample will have a high-ish Obama no-show rate.  In other words the samples will test about the same, the only change will be instead of that McCain 2% there will be an Obama 10% or whatever.

By the way the switch to "likely voters" is not a notable item otherwise it's just a way of saying "all our earlier polls sucked because we didn't know what we were doing".


[ Parent ]
Your still discounting PPP?
I would think after they nailed the primary in Florida, which no other pollster showed Scott leading in the last week like they did, you would finally have realized that PPP is a great pollster, and that you just can't come to terms with the fact that, no, 2010 will NOT be anything like 2008.  

[ Parent ]
I've explained this before
PPP polls people very well.  What they do very, very badly is have inconsistent partisan samples.

So they will poll primaries very well, since there is very little partisan or other weighting involved.

You have to be able to understand these are different things:
- polling 100 Obama voters in Florida
- polling 100 voters in Ohio, 54 who voted for obama 46 for McCain
- polling 100 voters in Ohio, 37 who voted for Obama 53 for McCain


[ Parent ]
I've refuted this before
[ Parent ]
And again, those numbers prove MY point
LOL, dude.  Give it a rest.

[ Parent ]
to emphasize
in the VA case, there was an inverse relationship between Obama approval and votes for Deeds.

In the NJ case, a difference in 16 in Obama approval had virtually 0 correlation with the vote for Corzine (2 points)


as stated http://www.swingstateproject.c... (source links work from that message)

Final PPP New Jersey Poll
Christie +6
Obama approval Even
2008 vote Obama +11
Partisan ID D44-R36-I20

Result/Exit Poll New Jersey
Christie +4
Obama approval +16
2008 vote N/A
Partisan ID D41-R31-I28

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2...

Final PPP Virginia Poll
McDonnell +14
Obama approval -11
2008 vote McCain +1
Partisan ID - D35-R35-I30

Result/Exit Poll Virginia
McDonnell +18
Obama approval -3
2008 vote McCain +8
Partisan ID D33-R37-I30

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2...

In other words, Obama voters / approvals are irrelevant.



[ Parent ]
this link to the key message
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Any doubts can be researched through those links. I did check the work done by the author of that message, and the data is impeccable.


[ Parent ]
Yes, which again proves my point
I can't even figure out what you think it means, as obviously those results are fully in line with what I have been trying to explain to you.

[ Parent ]
If you believe that an inverse relationship
proves your point,

then you believe that the numbers of Obama voters in a poll have --no-- relationship to poll numbers.

Nevertheless, you continue to cite such numbers.


[ Parent ]
If they only poll primaries well
Explain their MA-Sen, VA-Gov, and NJ-Gov results  

[ Parent ]
What about them?
Those are not this model, or this cycle, or this weighting.

Again, look at the polls.  In Virginia for example, the reason Deeds lost is in the polls... a combination of Obama no shows AND a change of mind among voters.

In the most recent NC poll, they project 18% Obama no shows and a change of 4% of Mccain voters TO Marshall.

So if PPP is right and switches are favoring the Democrat, the only remaining issue is turnout, and PPP is just guessing at that.  Their last poll had 0% Obama no shows; this one has 18% Obama no-shows... with that enormous, massive change occuring in one month.

Both polls can not be right.  Likewise their last Ohio poll, showing 2% Mccain no shows was very, very unlikely while they also said in Wisconsin that turnout would be 28% Obama no shows.

They are all over the place, in a logically inconsistent way, with their samples.  They do seem get accurate answers from the people they do poll, but they poll wildly, wildly inconsistent groups of people.


[ Parent ]
Please note that PPP....
LOOSENED their sample for the Scott poll, while they are tightening it for the Ohio poll... I don't understand why they are doing that.

[ Parent ]
Speaking of which.....
Whatever happened to Tekzilla? Did he offer up one negative comment too many?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Maybe he got tired of being right...
8-|

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[ Parent ]
Not to brag or anything...
But a few weeks ago, when I said tying Portman to Bush in Ohio would not be effective, everyone jumped down my throats and said I was dead off. Well, apparently, it is I who was right, according to PPP:
by a 50-42 margin voters there say they'd rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Yep.
And that spells problems for Strickland too. And OH-01. And OH-15. And OH-16. (and to a lesser extent OH-13)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Um, no
Hitler or Mussolini?  Manson or Starkweather?  

You need to take a logic pill on this one.  People hate Bush.  How Bush relates to Obama doesn't mean they have stopped hating Bush.


[ Parent ]
Let me ask you this
More people like Bush than Obama. Republicans have more money to tie the Democrat to Obama than the Democrats have to tie Portman to Bush. HOW does that not hurt the Dem?  

[ Parent ]
Where are you getting that?
"More people like Bush than Obama."

That's not what the poll says, and is almost certainly not true.

Both men are disliked by most people.  They do not like Bush!  LOL


[ Parent ]
Fine
They hate him less. Probably not personally, but they would rather him running the country than Obama.  

[ Parent ]
What you are disregarding
is that these numbers are the product of an aggressive likely voter screen.  The people who are most likely to show up to vote in Ohio according to PPP would rather have Bush than Obama.  It's not a statement on the people of Ohio as a whole, and I'm pretty sure the number would be turned upside down if you polled all adults or even RV's.

I'm seeing a lot of vanity from Republican/conservative idealogues who believe that this election is going to represent some massive, national shift in ideology from moderate to die-hard conservatism.  It's not that at all.  Ideology doesn't change that fast.  It's just that conservatives are going to bust down the doors to go vote while liberals and Dem moderates stay home instead of saving the asses of do nothing Dem legislators.

The favorable Dem turnout in 2008 did not represent any major shift in ideology, and the likely favorable Republican turnout in 2010 won't either. It's mostly just a reflection of highly unequal voter enthusiasm.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
What matters
Is who will show up. If registered voters overall would rather Obama by say, 55-40, that doesn't really matter if the ones who actually show up rather Bush by 50-42.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe to be more clear...
Most people don't like Hitler or Mussolini.  One campaign tying one canidate to Hitler will hurt that candidate.  The other campaign tying the other candidate to Mussolini will also hurt that candidate.

[ Parent ]
But one would crush the other
And I suspect it would be the Italian. Sort of like the 2002 French Presidential Run-off only actually worse.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Umm
How exactly does Boyd criticize anyone for social security privatization; he was Bush's Democratic spokesman for Social Security Privatization.

Overall, looks like good news today.  


Very good point.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Short memories. That's long forgotten and not easy to use against him......
Will the Republican opponent really go after that point in TV ads with the limited money he has?  I don't think so.  He'd be taking the bait and racing down the very rabbit hold Boyd wants.  The GOPer (Sutherland???...can't remember his name for sure) will want to stay away from Social Security.

Try to see how many voters by election day have any awareness at all that Boyd worked with Bush on anything.  It will be virtually none.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
3 more congressman subject to possible ethics inquiry
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09...

w/r/t the financial regulatory bill of '09

Each of the three House members - Representatives John Campbell, Republican of California; Joseph Crowley, Democrat of New York; and Tom Price, Republican of Georgia - criticized the referrals on Tuesday, with two of them saying the quasi-independent ethics office had not produced evidence of wrongdoing.

5 more escaped inquiry

The notices of dismissal  were sent to Representatives Jeb Hensarling, Republican of Texas; Christopher Lee, Republican of New York; Frank D. Lucas, Republican of Oklahoma; Earl Pomeroy, Democrat of North Dakota; and Melvin Watt, Democrat of North Carolina.


Christopher Lee is a freshman
Congresspeople sure grow up fast nowadays.

[ Parent ]
MN-06 Bachmann's ad is brilliant!
As a man who love beer, deep fried bacon and corn dogs I got to give it up for that Bachmann state fair ad:

I mean I never thought I'd see the day where a campaign slogan would be "What's up with taxing my beer?" We are a long way from the days of "Demon Rum".

I think Bachmann's got the Male 18-26 college student vote locked up with this one!

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Clever gimmick with "Jim the Election Guy," but a so-so message......
That's the 2nd ad Bachmann has out with that "Jim" dude "hosting."  It's a clever gimmick, definitely eye-catching and memorable, kudos to the ad-maker who came up with it.

But the message is "meh."  Yes everyone hates taxes, but people aren't so hostile to taxes on nonessential goodies.  Talk about the opponent raising income taxes, and you got a killer hit.  Talk about sales taxes or gas taxes, and it's a good hit, but not as strong.  But taxing beer, corn dogs, and deep fried bacon just doesn't make people angry.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Taxing beer, corn dogs, and deep fried bacon would make Homer Simpson angry!
Doh!

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[ Parent ]
more expensive beer, corn dogs and deep fried bacon make homer
something, something?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
A great compilation of Hilariously Bad CGI Political Ads:
http://www.cracked.com/article...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Speaking of the Demon Sheep ad:
Someone made it even more awesome!



Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
That's awesome!
It syncs up better than Dark Side of the Moon to the Wizard of Oz. I got chills watching it!

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[ Parent ]
Just saw on TV...
here in Los Angeles an ad attacking Barbara Boxer, claiming she'll get rid of Medicare.  It's from the Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies.

The more than $2 million in ads by Washington-based Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies criticize Sen. Barbara Boxer of California and Pennsylvania Senate candidate Joe Sestak for voting for President Barack Obama's health care overhaul. It also chides Kentucky Senate candidate Jack Conway, the state's attorney general, for refusing to join 13 other attorneys general who are challenging key provisions in the law.

The wave of advertising represents an early display of firepower by the group, a sister organization to American Crossroads, whose advisers include Republican masterminds Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie. It has already spent more than $3 million airing ads against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan in Missouri, and for Republican Rob Portman in Ohio.

...

Crossroads is spending $1 million in California and $500,000 in Pennsylvania to air the ad for one week, and $520,000 to air the ad in Kentucky for two weeks.

Crossroads, like other emerging political groups running ads in this election year, can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals and corporations but is not required to disclose those donors. Group officials aim to raise $50 million to help Republican candidates in this election.

So yep, they're up and running ads here on broadcast TV in L.A.


That
ad sadly has convinced some people on my block to vote for Fiorina.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
2 million
How far does that go in LA?  

[ Parent ]
Diary question
I was trying to embed a spreadsheet in a diary, and the thing tells me the iframe tag isn't allowed. Is there any other way to do this?


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