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AK-Sen: The Latest Count

by: James L.

Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 3:07 PM EDT


The new tally:

438 of 438 Precincts Reporting
Candidate Votes Percent
Lisa Murkowski 51,358 49.22%
Joe Miller 52,988 50.78%

More updates as we get 'em.

11:50pm: Y'know, I get a lot of spam from the DSCC. It's been well over an hour since Murkowski has conceded, and the DSCC has yet to put out a statement on the results. Quite the operation they're running there.
11:33pm: It didn't occur to me to mention this, but Murkowski also said she'd be "going home" to Alaska at the end of her term -- so it's pretty clear that she won't be attempting a write-in campaign.
11:21pm: One final ballot update for the night -- Miller added 628 votes and Murkowski added 467, bringing the gap to 1,630 for Miller. Which wasn't far off from where we started the day at!
10:28pm: Murkowski just walked away from the podium without endorsing Joe Miller. Game on!
10:21pm: Murkowski just conceded to Miller.
9:41pm: Murkowski will hold a press conference in twenty minutes.
9:40pm: Being generous, let's say there are 7000 valid GOP votes left to be counted. Murkowski would need 61% of them to win. She's done.
9:18pm: Murkowski is basically toast at this point, as she just couldn't get the juice she needed from Anchorage or the Southeast. 15,700 votes were counted today, and a number of Kenai absentees will be added to the total later in the evening. Murkowski would have to win an absurd amount of the uncounted GOP ballots (which has to be, what, 7K or so at most?) to pull this out. Not happening.
9:04pm: Miller adds 1,062 votes to Murkowski's 803 in the latest update. Miller's lead has shot up to 1,469 votes.
8:24pm: So that last batch of votes came from Southeast Alaska, the Kenai Peninsula and Fairbanks -- 3,000 more votes from these areas are expected tonight, but it's starting to look pretty grim for Murkowski.
8:08pm: And we're back! Since we last checked in, Miller added 1,057 votes and Murkowski took 1,139. The gap is now 1,210 votes.
7:20pm: SSP is taking a temporary break from the liveblog, but we'll be back shortly. In the meantime, keep your eyes peeled on that DoE page!
7:08pm: We finally have a bit of movement -- Miller picks up 353 votes and Murkowski adds 355. 50,241 to 48,949 for Miller.
6:50pm: The ADN reports that the next round of ballots to report will come from Southeast Alaska and the Kenai peninsula -- about 5800 absentees and questioned ballots from areas where Murkowski is hoping to romp in. Following that, we'll get a look at about 2750 votes from Miller-friendly Fairbanks.
5:54pm: In the comments, trhawk notes that it looks like the absentees from Anchorage HDs 27-32 have already reported, and possibly were bundled into the Mat-Su valley results. Murkowski won those HDs by nearly 55% on e-day, and if their absentees were lumped in with the Mat-Su update, that would explain why Murkowski appeared have run so much stronger in those Miller-friendly areas. Meanwhile, the ADN reports that Anchorage is done for the day, although 3000 questioned ballots and a "small number" of absentees remain to be counted there. The next round of votes to be counted will come from Juneau, followed by Fairbanks later in the evening.
5:24pm: Another update -- Miller just added 322 votes, Murkowski 488.
5:19pm: From Shira Toeplitz:

There will be 1,273 fewer ballots processed today than planned. Election officials announced that a set of questioned ballots from four state House districts in the Mat-Su Valley area will be opened Friday instead of Tuesday. ...During last Tuesday's primary, the ballots in these four state House districts voted for Miller over Murkowski, 62 percent to 38 percent.

4:29pm: The Anchorage Daily News reports that the latest batch of absentees came from the Mat-Su valley, specifically House Districts 13 through 16. Crunching the numbers myself, on election day, Murkowski won 38% of the vote in those districts. Among the absentees, she's picking up nearly 48% of the vote -- a much bigger improvement than among the Anchorage absentees, but she still has a long way to go.
4:12pm: A bunch more votes just came in -- we're now at 49,566 for Miller and 48,106 for Murkowski. Miller added 1,515 votes and Murkowski added 1,380.
3:55pm: Mike Memoli tweets that Alaska DoE officials are expecting to count ballots until 10pm Eastern tonight.
3:36pm: Crunching the numbers using Jeffmd's spreadsheet, Murkowski won House Districts 17 through 26 on election day by 53% of the vote. She won 57% from this batch of absentees.
3:25pm: Good news for Jumbo Joe Miller:

It looks like 2,391 votes were counted in this first batch. They're from Districts 17 through 26, all Anchorage.

As noted below, Murkowski was expected to run strongly here. Miller-friendly areas will report later today.
3:16pm: It's not yet clear where this batch of votes came from, but ADN reported that the first batch of results was expected to come from the Anchorage area, where Murkowski ran strongly. More votes are expected from the Mat-Su and Fairbanks regions later today, which are more Miller-friendly.
3:10pm: We now have our first update (of several to come) today. Miller added 1,024 votes to his tally today, and Murkowski added 1,367.

James L. :: AK-Sen: The Latest Count
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Is this all the votes from the
7000 absentees counted today? If so things look good for Miller; the needle barely moved at and the absentees are about half done now.  

No, it's not all
This was just over 2K GOP absentees. There will be several more updates over the course of the day. Stay tuned.

[ Parent ]
Oh...then
Murkowski is doing pretty well for initial batches.  

[ Parent ]
By my quick math...
She picked up 343 votes out of the 2,391 counted wining 57.1% to Miller's 42.9%.

At that rate Murkowski would need 9,237 more votes to be counted to over take Miller.

But of course there is no guarantee that the rest of the votes will come in at the same rate so my quick math is probably pretty useless.

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May Not Be Miller Time Yet
Obviously, who knows where these absentee ballots came from.  Miller had better hope they were just from pro-Murkowski areas.  He only received 42.8%.  If he receives 42.8% of all absentees/early/questionable ballots, he loses if there are more than 11,634 such ballots in total.

I think the questionable ballots might be more likely to break for Miller
If questional ballots are like provisional ballots my guess is that they might break more for Miller.

Provisional ballots are usually from voters who went to the polls on election day but didnt have their registration in order or went to the wrong polling place. Generally they are the less frequent voters.

My two cents is that they would be more likely to be the independent Tea Party types who usually dont vote but got motivated to go to the polls this time because they are angry at Washington.

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[ Parent ]
Good point
(and sorry -- if I had known you were doing the same math a little faster than I was (above), I wouldn't have posted!)

[ Parent ]
All from Anchorage
According to the Anchorage Daily News: "It looks like 2,391 votes were counted in this first batch. They're from Districts 17 through 26, all Anchorage."

Read more: http://community.adn.com/adn/n...


Districts 17-26
According to the Alaska Elections website, Murkowski carried Districts 17-26 with 52.82% of the vote.  The new ballots from those districts have gone to her with 57.2%.  If Murkowski over-performs her Election Day numbers by the same 4.4% in all districts in the new ballots across-the-board, she would need a total of 23,843 new ballots to be counted to eke out a victory.

[ Parent ]
My hope at this point?
There is a long drawn out legal battle over a recount.  I don't see it beyond Murkowski to do this, so I just hope Miller leads by like 4 votes in the end.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Clearly
You've been majoring in Advanced Cat Fud Studies at the Center for Republican Culinary Arts.

[ Parent ]
I'm in the wrong graduate program.
Fuck the M.A. (Ph.D., too) in political science.  I want to study THAT.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
It's stunning that 95,000+ GOP voters voted in the closed primary
Considering they're 126,486 registered Republicans in Alaska, that's a 75%+ turnout.

No
Registered I's and NP's can vote in the R primary.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the correction.


[ Parent ]
little over 200
So Murkowski has gained slightly over 200 votes with 5000 counted. It isn't looking good for her.

Worse than that ...
...it's looking very bad. She'd need 60% of the remaining votes today and then break even when the overseas, mostly military absentees, arrive.

I think she'll be forced to concede by the end of the day.


[ Parent ]
Districts 13-16
The Anchorage Daily News reports this latest batch of new ballots was from Districts 13-16 -- the Mat-Su Valley (Palinland).  Miller won 62.12% of the vote in those districts on Election Day, but he only won 52.33% of the new ballots from those districts.  With all of today's ballots, Murkowski is now out-performing her Election Day numbers in all districts that have been counted today by 5.9%.  If that were to continue in all districts across the state, she would need a total of 16,690 new ballots to be counted to pass Miller.

One factor I'm not considering
It will take someone with more mathematical ability than me to understand the effect, but one thing I'm not taking into consideration is how many new votes are coming from each district.  For example, the 10 lean-Murkowski Anchorage districts had 18,787 votes on Election Day in the GOP primary and today added 2,391 new votes.  The 4 strong-Miller Mat-Su districts had 15,515 votes on Election Day and today added 2,895 early votes.  So there were more new votes per total vote in the Miller districts than in the Murkowski districts.  Thus, while she's out-performing her Election Day numbers, it would be better for Murkowski if her districts return at least as many new votes per total vote as Miller's districts do.

[ Parent ]
According to an earlier post
The Juneau Empire took a closer look at where the absentee ballots are coming from, and finds that a "slightly larger" portion of the absentees are coming from Murkowski-friendly areas.

So that Mat-Su/Anchorage contrast may not be replicated statewide.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08


[ Parent ]
any chance of a recount?
especially if murkowski somehow comes out on top by, say, five votes?  I could see murkowski stepping down so she can run again in a few years, but if miller is just slightly behind, i don't see him backing down.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Mandatory
Mandatory recount in Alaska if the vote is within 1% which would be around 1,200 votes.

[ Parent ]
Wow, looks like that could totally be the case
Hope this happens :D

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
It also looks
like the Mirkowski districts of 27-32 are in.

If they
came in when the Mat-su vally (12-16) came in that would explain why Miller did so bad there.

[ Parent ]
Out of curiosity
How can you tell that 27-32 are in?

[ Parent ]
I just checked
the house districts on the website compaired to election day numbers(jeffmd).  When they come in they add about 300-500 more.

Early votes were alread in today but they just added a couple dozen to each district.


[ Parent ]
Cue Don Meredith
"Turn out the lights, the party's over..."

Over half of the ballots counted today and Lisa Murk has only gained 374 - still trails by almost 1,300 and her strongest districts are in.


Absolutely
If Murkowski strong districts of 17-32, and only the absentee part of Miller stong 13-16 came in, and Mirkowski only gained 374, she is toast.


[ Parent ]
Oooh, I hope it gets within 200 votes. Reecount!
I want to double major in Advanced Cat Fud studies too.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

Psh
I'm going for a masters. Best subject, ever.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I'm getting a Ph.D.!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
That last batch
probably just finished out HD 1-5 (for the day), and also brought in most if not all of HD 7,8,10,11, and 12.  Still completely out are HD 6, 9, 35, and 36 which are all about 52.5% for Joe miller, and HD 33, and 34 which are about 61% miller.  

I think that HD 37-40 are still out and they are ~75% for Murkowski.   Problem for Murkowski though is that according to Jeffmd, Miller's HD account for about 25% of the absentees(including 11% for just 33 and 34 alone), while Murkowski's HD only account for about 2.6%.


Does "Times Counted" mean votes over registered voters?


The 9 pm numbers
were from HD 3, 6, 9, 33, and 36.  HD 34 which is a big Miller district has according to hotline had 853 absentee and 160 questionable votes left still hasn't reported.

I think that Mirkowski HDs 37-40 are left, and they have a combined 420 absentees and 540 questionable votes left.

But remember that HD 34 is 80% republican while 37-40 are about 60-70% democratic, so Miller should expand his lead a couple hundred more.


I take it back
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/...

According to this HD 37-40 must have already reported, and I didn't notice it.


[ Parent ]
presser
smart money says concede.  hopeful money says RECOUNT!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Even more hopeful money says concession + McAdams endorsement...


Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
I think the best we can hope for
is a Rick McCollum-style non-endorsement.

[ Parent ]
Rick McCollum?
LOL

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Live press confrence feed?
Does anyone have a live feed for this press conference?  I'd love to watch that live.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

CNN
http://www.cnn.com/video/flash...

CNN has it, but nothing is happening yet.

Male, 23, NJ-12


[ Parent ]
Thanks, I was going to head over there
But I remembered every time I wanted to see a live event of somewhat major importance, the stupid site only has lame weather.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Update...
A guy came out and basically gave a two-minute warning.  They're not taking any questions, and the speech was described as "an address to her supporters."

Male, 23, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Anxious to find out what Murkowski has to say
I would imagine she's conceding, the question is, will she endorse Miller?

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

recount recount recount
n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Damn it, sounds like a concession


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

It does
She's done.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Concession. n/t


28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

Twitter
says Murkowski is conceding.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

And Murkowski
says Murkowski is conceding!

[ Parent ]
I was thinking the same thing.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
She'd better be
I can only deal with one Norm Coleman style whine fest once in a lifetime.

[ Parent ]
She's very gracious and classy
That was a nice speech.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Agreed
I was just thinking the same thing.  Very gracious of her staff and her constituents.  Classy woman.

Male, 23, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
I have noticed that not once has she mentioned her party
Or their nominee.

I sense some cat fud :)

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


And no endorsement.
Big shocker there...  /sarcasm

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

Sarah
Palin shall be known from this day forward as the Murkowski killer.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

...
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My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Well, congrats, Alaska, you get a do-nothing Senator.
You'd better hope Don Young ratchets up his pork wrangling.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


It ain't over yet
If Murkowski stays nob-endorsementive, or endorses McAdams, We dems can have a chance.

If that happens, Miller will be Scozzafava'd.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
if miller wins, i wonder if his "no fed help for alaska" will pan out
If begich is the only source of pork for the state, it might bring him a few extra points in the polls, enough in a close race.  I know pork probably didn't help stevens, but it's easier to give something up when they don't know they have it.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Stevens had a conviction weighing him down.
Other than that, he's basically the father of modern Alaska.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
not saying he wasn't
I'm just saying that most of those who voted in 2008 probably weren't factoring his pork wrangling abilities into their voting calculus.  In 2014 however, if miller holds true to his no pork promise and the only pork comes from begich and young, they might be more willing to keep begich, since all of a sudden they're starved for federal funds.  especially if the conservative wing of the alaska republicans decides, after miller, to try to run a similarly conservative, anti-pork politician.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Stevens was beloved for his pork
Has Stevens not provided for the state as much as he did he would have lost by a much greater margin.  Young may have gone down too with the corruption allegations.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
If Democrats
still hold the senate after November, Reid should place Begich on the Appropriations committee. Its only right that a senator from Alaska should be on that committee.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
True, he should.
Byron Dorgan and Specter are Dem members who won't be there after this year so there will be room.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I will officially declare
It is in fact, MILLER TIME!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Haha
hopefully every teabagger in Alaska makes a run for the supermarket tonight!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
any bad race for
Coors fans

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Well, Pete Coors did lose
a few years back.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Now what
Does Murkowski do? Does she give her money over to the NRSC? Does she save it for a potential future federal race? I don't care what she does personally, but I am eying that million+ that she could have used to save herself.  

I don't know
personally I don't think she'll run for the House after Don Young retires. Its just too much of a downgrade. She and Begich had a good working relationship so its possible she could run against him but I doubt it. She could run for governor after Parnell is termed out, but her father was a bad governor so that may hurt her.

Hell, if all fails she can become a lobbyist!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
her friend mitch
lines up a lobbying job worth millions in return for her endorsement of Miller.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
Yep!
That's why we got the quick concession and why there will most likely be no cat fud coming out of her. She'll play the good soldier and then go off to lobby for dollars.

In the end she really messed up by not spending her campaign kitty. She should have known she was heading for trouble when Palin endorsed Miller. She should sue her campaign staff for political malpractice.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
She should sue herself...
Her campaign staff BEGGED her to go negative earlier on Miller.  She refused.

[ Parent ]
Was this info leaked?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Run against Begich in 2014
Since she says she loved Ted Stevens, what better way than winning back the seat that he lost.

[ Parent ]
That seems the best way to go
Unless Parnell runs, then a run for Gov is good. The best hope for her is, IMO, Parnell runs for Senate, Young retires. Anyone who would primary her would be busy running for something else, she takes her pick between Gov and House (maybe the house would be easier, her dad was never a US rep)  

[ Parent ]
House is a demotion...
...can't see her moving down like that.

[ Parent ]
Its better than nothing
And would be easier for her probably.  

[ Parent ]
AK
I doubt the no pork stuff will affect how Alaska votes much and I doubt it will save Begich in a few years.  Alaska is just that conservative.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Begich isn't doing badly.
He can win again in 2014.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]

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