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AK-Sen: First Ballots Will Be Counted Today

by: James L.

Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 8:32 AM EDT


In lieu of an AM digest, let's set the stage for what should be yet another dramatic day in the Alaska Republican primary saga.

  • Change Gonna Come: Since Wednesday, the scoreboard has been frozen like this:

    438 of 438 Precincts Reporting
    Candidate Votes Percent
    Lisa Murkowski 45,359 49.10%
    Joe Miller 47,027 50.90%

    That will all change later today once the folks at the Alaska Division of Elections begin counting their first round of absentee ballots. According to The Hill, 7000 absentees are in the kitty, waiting to be counted today. Given that roughly 70% of the ballots cast on election day were in the Republican primary, we should see the needle move by around 5000 votes. The Anchorage Daily News, however, isn't getting a straight figure from the DoE, while a Murkowski spokesbot claims that the number of votes counted today will be closer to 15,000 (out of over 25,000 currently uncounted). In any case, we'll keep you updated as soon as the results are posted.


  • Paranoid: True to form, Joe Miller is calling for armed guards -- or Alaska State Troopers, to be precise -- to protect the regional elections offices from Lisa Murkowski's legion of iPhone-wielding, Diebold-hacking "scrutineers". The DoE says that Miller's paranoia is unfounded, saying that there's no way that NRSC/Murkowski consultant Mike Roman (who also worked on behalf of Norm Coleman during the '08 Minnesota recount episode) could have tampered with any e-ballots. Murkowski is more or less calling Miller unhinged:

    "I believe in our nation's democratic process, it's the envy of the world. I have complete faith in our system and I am astounded that Mr. Miller continues to make blatantly false accusations that there is something nefarious happening. Observers from both sides are at regional election offices to ensure that Alaskans get a fair vote count. For someone who wants to be Alaska's Republican nominee for Senate, Mr. Miller is certainly afraid of Republicans," Senator Murkowski said.
  • Burning Down the House: You just have to love how candid Joe Miller is in his radicalism. From a FOX Business News interview late last week (of course!):

    "But out of the gate, Joe, what do you start with? Healthcare?" said Asman.

    "Oh, absolutely. Defund it. I mean a repeal would be perfect but obviously that would get vetoed. So defund everything. Get rid of the socialist aspects of government, not just in health care but the other entitlement areas that are driving us into insolvency," Miller said.

    Miller went on to say that Congress should have the "courage to shut down the government," if necessary, to eliminate government programs.

    On anyone's list, the entitlement programs that could drive the nation to "insolvency" in the decades ahead are topped by Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which make up about 40 percent of the federal budget. [...]

    Miller has said he wants an "orderly transition" away from Social Security, to "privatize" or "personalize" it, while not reducing benefits for anyone who is "currently dependent" on the program.

    Referring to Social Security, he told the Anchorage Daily News that "I think in the long run the answer is to get the government out of it, to privatize it."

    Regarding Medicare, he also wants an "orderly transition" to get the government out of that program as well because "The government has broken everything that it's had its finger in."

    That's Joe Miller, Pension Killer to his friends.


  • With a Little Help From My Friends: Here's a refreshing change of pace -- the Politico devotes two pages of text to Democrat Scott McAdams. The article puts the spotlight on the big support that McAdams is getting from Mark Begich, who's quickly becoming McAdams' biggest backer in the state. Begich, who not only helped talk McAdams into the race when no other Democrat of note was willing to take the plunge against Murkowski, has been sending staff and fundraising assistance to McAdams, and spent all of last week shopping the Mayor of Sitka around Anchorage.

    Politico notes that Alaska Democrats had tried to lure former state legislator Walter Hensley into the race before McAdams jumped in just before the filing deadline, but couldn't get Hensley to commit to a race against his "longtime friend and ally" Murkowski. There's now some rumbling that Hensley would be interested in running against Miller, but that boat has clearly sailed. McAdams is standing firm, and the state party has lined up behind him. Begich sums it up:

    "There's no trade-in. There's no swapping," Begich said. "And part of the hesitation is that they don't know Scott. But that's what campaigns are all about. I didn't know Joe Miller a few months ago." [...]

    "This guy put his name on the line when nobody else would," Begich said. "That takes a lot of guts and a lot of ability, in my view."

    Meanwhile, McAdams also secured the endorsement of national AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka, who clearly liked what he had to see after Begich facilitated a meeting between the two. The Mudflats has the video.

  • James L. :: AK-Sen: First Ballots Will Be Counted Today
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    why do they wait so long?
    I remember this from 2008--they didn't start counting the absentees right away or even the day after the election. That seems weird.

    The law
    They have to wait to give oversees ballots enough time to arrive.  Plus with it being a possibility for bad weather mail might be slow?  That's just a guess though  

    [ Parent ]
    Begich/$
    I'm still waiting for the DSCC to send out the "want to piss off Sarah Palin? Give to THIS GUY!" email.

    GOP poll
    Miller up 52-36.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

    I do worry this could be fool's gold.


    [ Parent ]
    Internal Poll
    It's an NRSC poll, so maybe it's good but maybe not.

    And I'd bet McAdams is not well known, so that makes polling less reliable. It's the same issue that Miller had: when someone has low recognition, polling this far out may not be very predictive, which was at least one reason why people were so surprised at the eventual primary result. Via Nate Silver: "If a candidate has low name recognition, but is running relatively well among voters who have become familiar with him or her, and has a strategy - like the ability to spend lots of money - for increasing  name recognition, then we should not be so surprised if that candidate performs much better than expected on Election Day." http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

    Could be fool's gold. May be too early to tell. But still might be worth an investment since it would be so cheap.


    [ Parent ]
    i agree
    But I'm liking Beach and McAdams more each day.

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    The Politico article was (surprisingly!) flattering to McAdams. I look forward to a spirited race between Miller and McAdams. Hopefully, Murkowski does not run in any form whatsoever.

    Hmmm... Considering the numbers out of MO, NC and NH, which a year and a half ago I thought would be the easiest Senate pickups for us, I wonder if KY and AK--which are generally always OFF the table for mainstream Dem candidates--are our best bets.

    Delaware, too, if the Repubs nominate O'Donnell there.


    [ Parent ]
    Well
    DE would obviously not be a pickup...

    33, living in Germany  

    [ Parent ]
    Pyrite? Perhaps.
    But there's no cost to asking the email list to send McAdams money as a one-shot "screw Palin" deal.

    [ Parent ]
    No argument
    I don't think the DSCC should touch it though.

    [ Parent ]
    Why not?
    Alaska is a very cheap series of markets. A little spending could go a long way.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    It is still Alaska
    In 2010.

    [ Parent ]
    how did we do there in 2008?
    In a Senate race with massive GOP turnout to benefit the beloved homestate VP nominee.

    [ Parent ]
    If you're referring to Mark Begich
    That was also against an indicted incumbent, and we barely won. (and not-quite-as-corrupt but still pretty corrupt congressman Don Young won in that cycle as well). So I wouldn't point to 2008 as an example of how well we can do in Alaska.

    That said - there are Democratic votes in Alaska. I still think there's some possiblity here.  


    [ Parent ]
    Not just indicted, convicted too in late October


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    You have to have the serious campaign
    It wasn't just the indictment, but a candidate ran a serious campaign that set him up when opportunity came. That was one of those "luck is preparation meets opportunity" situations. If McAdams gets some funding and help, maybe Miller will implode like other tea party candidates or maybe he'll have his own indictment, in which case McAdams and the Democrats will need to be making a real effort if they want to take advantage. Good for Begich getting behind him.

    [ Parent ]
    it probably is
    But it's nice to make them sweat!

    [ Parent ]
    Just not at the expense of
    Winnable races.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, but the more I get to know about Miller
    The crazier he seems, and the more I think we might have a chance here.  

    [ Parent ]
    In one real sense the teabaggers are either very smart or very lucky......
    Timing.

    The anti-Democratic wave is the ONLY circumstance in which they could get any these people actually elected to the United States Senate.

    If they succeed this well in GOP primaries in a more neutral year, they will get slaughtered beyond all reasonable proportions.  We would beat Joe Miller and Ken Buck and Pat Toomey and Sharron Angle and any other whackadoodles running in competitive states in a neutral year.  People like Rob Portman and Roy Blunt have a 50-50 shot in a neutral year, but those batshit insane fucks have no chance.

    But we are in such a year that a guy like Joe Miller is on the cusp of getting elected to the United States Senate, and conspiracy DISfavors any DSCC investment in the Democrat.  Not disagreeing with conspiracy at all, he's dead-on right, but my point is it reflects the type of year this is.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Internal polls always show better numbers
    The PPP poll showed Miller with less of a lead. Of course the NRCC would release this, they want to discourage Democrats from helping McAdams.  

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    Sure
    I'm not suggesting McAdams shouldn't get help just not to the extent it wastes resources needed elsewhere.

    [ Parent ]
    Miller ranting against the national "outsiders"...
    Pretty damn hypocritical considering 99% of the Tea Bagger Express money came from non-Alaskans.

    Dems need to get McAdams some money fast to get on the air and frame himself while Miller is focused on Murkowski and the absentee counts. This is a crucial time for McAdams to take advantage of.  


    Maybe Not Yet
    The outcome isn't clear yet, and money will be wasted if Murkowski pulls this out. I think it's hard to argue against waiting a little to make sure that Miller is the candidate.

    In the meantime, it seems that Miller is doing a fine job for McAdams for now.


    [ Parent ]
    McAdams would have no shot against Murkowski...
    So might as well start running against Miller now to get a head start.  He should have a bio ad and at the end ask Murkowski voters to give him an honest look because while they won't agree on everything, he's much more in line with them than the extremist Miller.  

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed, but....
    Yes, there's no shot against Murkowski--which is why I don't see the harm in waiting a few days as more votes are counted to make sure he's not running against Murkowski.

    [ Parent ]
    Wait for what though?
    Run against Miller, because if it turns out to be Murkowski he's not going to win anyways.  He needs to use this time to get his name out.  Right now it's all Miller and Murkowski, they're sucking all the air out of the room.  It's like Florida all over again, with Rubio and Crist dominating and Meek thinking it more wise to sit on the sidelines and say nothing.  

    McAdams needs to make sure folks know he's in the race.  Miller is going to have 10x more money, McAdams needs to take advantage of the window now before Miller uses that money to frame Scott and then bury him.  


    [ Parent ]
    Wait for what though?
    Wait to make sure we don't wind up wasting money against Murkowski. I can think of lots of other candidates who could use several hundred thousand dollars. But I'm not talking weeks here; the picture could be clearer in a just a few days.

    "Miller is going to have 10x more money, McAdams needs to take advantage of the window now before Miller uses that money to frame Scott and then bury him."

    There's only so far money will take you, and it has diminishing returns. The first million is far more important than the second million. Plus Alaska is a cheap state. If the opponent turns out to be Miller, I'm not very concerned that McAdams won't have enough money to run a competitive campaign there.


    [ Parent ]
    I think some comparisons can be made to UT-Sen
    Assuming Murkowski is defeated. Haven't done a 'side by side' comparison of Mike Lee and Joe Miller, but I assume their levels of crazy are similar. In addition, it seems to me that McAdams is about as much of a name as Sam Granato.

    Differences:

    1) AK isn't nearly as red as UT
    2) Palin's "prestige" is now on the line getting Miller elected.  


    The first point probably being the most important


    [ Parent ]
    On point 2
    One thing I want to point out that was thrown about in other threads is that Palin is not popular in AK.  Or at least she wasn't towards the end of her half term.  Its her prestige amongst national tea-partiers, not Alaskans.  (The numbers may have changed since she hasn't been Gov for a year.)

    [ Parent ]
    Have to disagree
    McAdams is the mayor of Sitka; a small place, I grant, but a relatively prominent city in Alaska (the state's fourth-largest). Also, it seems like the guy has quite a bit of the charisma (granted, we wouldn't even have the chance to see that from Granato if he does, because Utah's redder and so nobody gives him the remotest shot).

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

    [ Parent ]
    Less red than Utah
    Kinda like saying New York is less blue than Vermont. I'm not really buying this one folks. Not this year.

    [ Parent ]
    If New York Democrats
    nominated a candidate for the Senate who was some kind of kooky left-winger, a mainstream New York Democrat along the lines of George Pataki but less known could win.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Not in 2006 or 2008


    [ Parent ]
    I disagree
    I'm talking about someone REALLY kooky. Of course, such a person wouldn't win a Democratic primary for statewide office in New York, anyway.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    It could have happened this year, without severe kookiness
    If no one primaried him, Patterson.

    [ Parent ]
    But the Joe Miller magic
    I don't think he's weak just because of the extreme right-wingyness. I think he's weak because he's attacking pork, and pork is the lifeblood of the state. Any other state with a similar lean, like Nebraska or Alabama, I think he wins handily.

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

    [ Parent ]
    The way I see it
    You take a politician who is of the state's dominant (not utterly, but solidly dominant) party, who is the personification of an issue the state is known for particularly supporting. Then the candidate loses to someone diametrically opposed to that issue. On the other side you have a mostly unknown candidate with hints of perhaps being charismatic, but it's too early to tell.

    Any analogies? I was trying to think of some, but I can't think of any.

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah,
    that's the best I could think of. I think I was trying to think of one on the other side of the aisle, though.

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

    [ Parent ]
    Fun Facts
    that I didn't know: Apparently, Alaska's PVI is as red as the bluest state (that would be Vermont). And Utah is 7 points redder than Alaska.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

    (Click the arrow thingy under the table heading to sort them by PVI (or any field).)

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets


    [ Parent ]
    In contrast, Granato is a statewide official
    The only way to know for sure is comparative polls w/r/t name recognition.

    Taking an apples to oranges comparison, per Rassmusen 6/23, Granato has a 37/33 favorable/unfavorable rating -- aka 70% have an opinion of Granato.

    Per the latest PPP poll, over half of AK voters have no opinion of McAdams.

    So while the apples to oranges comparison is shaky, if the polls can be taken at face value, Granato has --higher-- name recognition among UT voters than McAdams does among AK voters.


    [ Parent ]
    Couple of flaws
    "statewide official" He's head of the Utah Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control. I can't imagine that being a big deal in any state. Especially not Utah.

    And the polls aren't comparable because Rasmussen has had vastly inflated recognition numbers almost everywhere this cycle (as you do admit, to your credit).

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets


    [ Parent ]
    Nevertheless, the bottom line is (probably) close to the same
    As you noted, AK is about 7% less red than UT.

    If McAdams does 7% better than Granato, I think it's a 60-40 race (or 55-35-10, with the current Libertarian)

    Sure, the PPP poll suggests a 47-39 race. But one of the lessons of '08 IMO is that polls in AK understate R strength. If the '08 polls were accurate, Begich should have won comfortably. Even Rasmussen's last poll (if Wikipedia is to be believed) had Begich winning 52-44.  


    [ Parent ]
    Envy of the world
    I'm obviously more sympathetic to Murkowski than to Miller, but "our nation's democratic process, it's the envy of the world"? Like hell your democratic process is the envy of the world. In most of Europe, at least, and I assume also in Australia/N-Z, there's no envy; neither is there in chunks of South-America.

    Your process is as dysfunctional as any in the democratic, Western world. If there ever was any fundamental level of global envy, surely no longer after 2000.

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


    Envy
    Because it is all so exciting!

    [ Parent ]
    Sorta not sure what this has to do with the subject of this thread...
    But thanks for the tirade!  

    [ Parent ]
    It's because Murkowski made the claim
    Americans are constantly claiming "We're #1!" in everything. It helps to understand that there are many countries that actually conduct elections and count votes a lot more fairly and efficiently than the U.S. Agreed that it's a tangent, but because Murkowski's claim is mentioned above, it's relevant.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    I missed that in the original post...
    So I guess I understand where it's coming from. I still think it's irrelevant to the general discussion.  

    [ Parent ]
    To your point...
    I can see where it might be relevant for a weekend thread.  

    [ Parent ]
    Tirade's a big word
    I was responding directly to Murkowski's quote in the OP. And isn't a "tirade" supposed to be a lot longer than three mere sentences? Doesn't really qualify, does it?

    38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

    [ Parent ]

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