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SSP Daily Digest: 8/30 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 4:10 PM EDT


• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon's gotta be wondering why all those former employees couldn't wait until after the November election to up and die. With the death two weeks ago of Lance McNaught still in the news, another WWE star, Luna Vachon, died over the weekend. An autopsy is scheduled, but the WWE paid for rehab for substance abuse for Vachon last year.

• KY-Sen: Democrat Jack Conway's out with his first TV ad for the general election. The ad buy, touting Conway's work against prescription drug abuse and child pornography as AG, is for about $150K. Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Paul is out with a doozy of a legislative proposal: to audit the nation's gold reserves. As with many things that come out of the gray area between ultra-libertarianism and black helicopters-territory, the "huh? why?" part is best answered by reading the comments on the article, which apparently suggest that our nation's gold supply actually been given away as collateral on all our debt to commercial banks/our Chinese overlords/the UN/the Bavarian Illuminati. Why is this getting filed under KY-Sen? Partly because those reserves are (allegedly!!!!1!) in Kentucky at Fort Knox, but also because at some point Rand Paul is going to inevitably get called on the carpet to say whether he agrees with dad's latest scheme.

• NC-Sen: Civitas is out with a new poll of the Senate race in the Tar Heel State, but it's an odd little critter, only polling "unaffiliated" voters. They seem to mirror the larger split statewide, with Richard Burr leading Elaine Marshall 39-32 (with 7 for Libertarian Michael Beitler). 34% of respondents had still never heard of Marshall. Burr is also out with his first TV ad of the cycle, focusing on his down-home-ness, presumably to ward off the "gone Washington" problem that sank Elizabeth Dole two years ago. The buy is for $578K (click the link to see the breakdown among the state's many media markets).

• NH-Sen: Ovide Lamontagne just got a big score: the endorsement of the Manchester Union-Leader, the state's largest newspaper and also one of the most consistently right-wing editorial pages anywhere. Newspaper endorsements can usually be shrugged off, but the Union-Leader's endorsement of Lamontagne in the 1996 GOP gubernatorial primary helped him pull of the surprise upset of Rep. Bill Zeliff. Can this help him in a four-way split, though, instead of just a two-way, especially when Kelly Ayotte and Bill Binnie have dramatically outspent him so far? Lamontagne is also finally hitting the airwaves with his first TV ad, with the primary approaching in just a couple weeks. (No dollar figure given, but it's only a one-week cable buy.)

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle just keeps handing gift after gift to Harry Reid, this time unfortunately timed to coincide with Katrina's 5th anniversary: video has surfaced from Angle's 2006 NV-02 bid in which she says she would have voted against Katrina relief funds. One other minor Nevada point, also courtesy of Jon Ralston: Clark County's GOP chair just resigned, leaving more disarray in the local Republican hierarchy as far as staying organized and disciplined for November.

• OH-Sen: The national Chamber of Commerce is out with a new positive ad touting Rob Portman, which is odd since Portman has enough money in the bank that he can pay his own way and then some. (The establishment, free-tradin' Portman is definitely their kind of guy, though, much more so than the teabaggers cluttering a number of other close Senate races.) NWOTSOTB.

• AL-05: Republican Mo Brooks (who blew out party-switching Parker Griffith in the GOP primary) has a decent, but not overwhelming, lead over Dem Steve Raby, at least according to his own internal courtesy of POS. Brooks leads 48-37; taking into consideration that it's an internal, this race isn't a likely pickup but certainly still on the table.

• KY-06: One other ad to consider today: Ben Chandler's out with another spot, this time going negative against local attorney Andy Barr, hitting him on the issue of the bad kind of SSP (social security privatization).

• MI-01, MI-03, MI-07: We Ask America is out with a trio of House district polls in Michigan. As is their usual modus operandi, the Republicans are in the lead. In the Dem-held open seat 1st, Dan Benishek leads Gary McDowell 45-29 (even WAA admits they expect that to tighten a lot, based on Benishek's name being in the news from the ultra-close GOP primary). In the reddish open-seat 3rd being vacated by GOPer Vern Ehlers, Justin Amash leads Patrick Miles 51-30. And the state's most vulnerable Dem incumbent, Mark Schauer trails ex-Rep. Tim Walberg in a rematch, 45-37.

• OH-17: "Trafican't" just got turned into "Trafican." Although there's no official word, supporters of ex-con ex-Rep. Jim Traficant are saying that re-canvassing of petitions has yielded enough valid signatures to get him on the ballot as an independent. He was only 20 shy, and they've found at least 27 new valid signatures. Traficant isn't likely to be much of a factor against incumbent Rep. Tim Ryan in this solidly blue district, though.

• AGs: I know I can rely on Louis Jacobson to go even deeper into the weeds than we here at SSP ever will. Writing for Governing magazine, he handicaps and encapsulates the nation's many state Attorney General races. He finds the Dems (who currenly have a 32-18 edge in AG positions) in danger of losing at least six seats this year, including Dem-held open seats in California, Arizona, and Georgia. One of the Dems' best (if only) offensive opportunities is Bill McCollum's old post in Florida. The St. Petersburg Times has a deeper profile of the race between Democratic state Sen. Dan Gelber, and the Sarah Palin-backed Hillsborough Co. prosecutor Pam Bondi.

• Mayors: Here's a second poll in a week's time showing current Washington, DC mayor Adrian Fenty significantly trailing in his bid for re-election, against Democratic primary opponent Vincent Gray. The Washington Post finds Gray leading Fenty 53-36 among likely voters, or 49-36 among registered voters.

• Rasmussen:
• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 38%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 57%
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 44%, Ken Buck (R) 47%
• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 37%, Mary Fallin (R) 52%
• OK-Sen: Jim Rogers (D) 24%, Tom Coburn (R-inc) 67%
• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 19%, Jim DeMint (R) 63%
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 48%, John Raese (R) 42%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/30 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 8/30 (Afternoon Edition) | 130 comments
Don't take a look at Gallup's latest Generic Ballot poll
Even Rasmussen has more favorable poll numbers.
Seems important in light of this to note the good news today...
1).  Harry Teague is leading by three

2).  Ovid Lamontage gets the Manchester Union endorsement

3).   Tea Party Express spending money against Mike Castle

All in all, not a bad day to be a Dem, even with the bad news from Gallup

(and yeah, it is really bad news, so don't look at it unless you want to end your day on a sour note).  

[ Parent ]
It'll pass...
...next week, it will probably bounce 10 points the other way... Has gallup generic balloting been this unreliable in the past?
[ Parent ]
Those are bizarre numbers
Taegan even made a giddy comment about the enthusiasm gap obviously means an even larger gap with LV since the 10-point Gallup is RV. Yet Rasmussen is only 6-points with LV!
[ Parent ]
Gallup's become a bit of a joke...
3 point lead last week, now it's 10, and it will probably be a 3 point Dem lead next week.  No one has had that kind of wild swings in their polling... Even Rasmussen seems reasonable in comparison...

What's the deal with Gallup's weird numbers lately?

[ Parent ]
Number does not matter as much as trend
Really the only thing that matters is that the Republicans are leading in the generic ballot.  Republicans rarely lead in the generic ballot.

The crazy movements we are getting in these polls really reflects a highly explosive electorate out there.  Right now, I think the Democrats will lose 45 seats.  This electorate though is highly explosive so a series of bad events for the Democrats could easily shoot that number higher is what I am reading from these polls.

Lastly, I think we have grown accustomed to easily polled electorates.  Polling is more of an art and less of a science this cycle.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
But the question is, does that mean anything?
Republicans had a sizable advantage in the generic ballot of PA-12, the problem was the race wasn't against a generic Republican and a Generic Democrat. Other factors, such as the candidate and the campaigns turned the race into a 9 point victory for Mark Critz.

Republicans have big leads in the Generic ballots of VA-09 and AL-02, yet their candidates are down double digits in both those districts due to local conditions like funding, candidate quality, how well the candidates match the district, incumbency, etc. This is what I mean in talking how important micro-political conditions will be in countering what could be a significantly favorable macro-political conditions for Republicans. Which is why I put Republican gains in the 20-35 range and think many people will be quite surprised on election day and Republicans will be hit by their failure to capitalize, (and hopefully might start moderating back into sensible, sane, and reasoned politics again, actually working with the smaller Democratic majorities).  

[ Parent ]
Comparing nationally to PA-12 is not a good way to look at it...
I think bringing districts like PA-12 into the discussion really ignores the fact that those districts are so hard to poll.  PA-12 was never at play and I really do not understand why so many people on this site, which has a pretty bright bunch of individuals, fell for the notion that it was at play.  It really shows how people fall for a few bad polls in an insanely hard district to poll and PVI while ignoring everything else.  The only reason I rank it as Likely Democratic in my survey of the House races is because the Democrats are in implosion mode in Pennsylvania.  When you have a systematic meltdown in a state, freaky things happen.  With a decently funded challenger and a politically novice incumbent, it is possible something could happen if the PA Dems do crater.

In general, one critique I have of the analysis many provide not just here, but in other forums, is that they do not focus enough on the seats that Republicans have held within the last decade.  Arguably those seats are at least open to voting for a Republican whereas a district like PA-12 has never went Republican in recent memory.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
But clearly it was open to voting for McCain on a federal level
And Obama isn't all that popular in the district
[ Parent ]
Voted for Dem for everything else
They voted against Obama because of race.  There were a lot of yards in western Pennsylvania that had Democratic signs for every race except President.  Why would you vote Democratic in every other race, but President?  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
We'll see who's right

[ Parent ]
Not a lot of stability in Gallup's generic ballot
When Republican-leaning Rasmussen shows less of a gap, it's sort of hard to know who to believe here. Generic ballots aren't always a great indicator of how things will go, I think ground game will make the difference in some races.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
No weirdness, no joke
A lot of what has been perceived as Gallup's "wild swings" falls squarely into the +/- 3% margin of sampling error. Note that this margin of error applies to each party's polling individually -- multiplying the margin of error that would apply for the lead of one party over the other.

Add in the fact that even the margin of error is a measure of probability - i.e., as pollster.com explained it a couple of months ago, when pundits were hyperventilating about a perceived Democratic come-back in the Gallup polling:

"keep something else in mind about the margin of error: It represents a probability. We can expect results to fall beyond the margin of error 5% of the time, or for one measurement out of twenty (that's the idea behind the line in Gallup's methodological blurb: "one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points")."

In short, a lot of pundits use the kind of bouncing around that Gallup shows as an occasion to either diagnose all kinds of meaningful political changes of the moment, or declare Gallup to be "unreliable" or what not. When really, what they are looking at is just a function of any reliable polling. Margins of error, plus the probability of individual samples surpassing even the margin of error, explain almost all of what you see as "weirdness".

It's the polls that don't bounce about much at all you'd better worry about - one of the things that brought down the fradulent Strategic Vision pollsters was that their numbers did not show the kind of bouncing about that you'd naturally expect.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
When is DC's primary?


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Sept. 14
Same as Maryland.
[ Parent ]
Thanks!


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
New York & Delaware, too

[ Parent ]
As well as
Wisconsin, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Who should progressives root for?
I've been hearing good things about Gray, but I honestly haven't been paying attention to this race at all. Is he challenging Fenty from the left or right?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
It's Not a Left/Right Contest
This seems to be much more a race about style and factions than it is a race over a left/right disagreement.
[ Parent ]
To put it more bluntly
It's a race about whether Fenty is black enough.
[ Parent ]
Very true,
sadly enough.

http://mypolitikal.com/
[ Parent ]
That Conway ad is passable
I don't find it to be great, but I think strategically it works well. It would be perfect if Rand Paul steps on another landmine about anti-drug funding while this is on the air.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Repost: Conference on the 2010 elections at UGA
Think you might be interested in this:

Dear Graduate Students,

Keith Poole is organizing a conference to assess the outcome of this year's midterm elections. It will be an all day conference at the Georgia Center on Friday, November 12. Please save the date. Faculty, students, and the public are encouraged to attend. Among the scheduled panel participants are:

John Petrocik ( University of Missouri)
Gary Jacobson (UCSD)
Nolan McCarty (Princeton)
Gary Miller (Washington University)
Brian Schaffner (UMass, Amherst)
Daron Shaw (University of Texas)(tentative)
Brian Gaines (University of Illinois)
Ben Bishin (UC-Riverside)
David Bradford (University of Georgia)
Jamie Monogan (University of Georgia)
Andy Whitford (University of Georgia)

In addition, Chuck Bullock will moderate a roundtable public forum consisting of Georgia politicians. The tentative schedule is as follows:

          Panel 1. 9:00 - 10:15 a.m. Public Opinion and the Elections.
          Panel 2. 10:30 - 11:15 a.m. Analyzing the Issues.
          Panel 3. 1:30 - 3:00 p.m. Public Forum: Roundtable discussion with politicians.
          Panel 4. 3:30 - 5:00. Election 2010 and the Future.



Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
I wish they did that sorta stuff in SF
And that I would know about.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Lamontagne's more threatening than Christine O'Donnell
The problem is, unlike Mike Castle, Ayotte and Binnie have run pretty conservative primary campaigns. There's no obvious opening for the guy. Plus, Lamontagne's generally viewed as a has-been among the state GOP crowd. (I lived in NH over the summer, and observed much of the political chatter.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
May the best predictor win!
I'm already on record as saying Lamontange win this, based on his previous history, the fact he's the most conservative and Binnie and Ayotte have beating the carp out of each other lately.

But yes - definitely more threatening than O'Donnell.  

[ Parent ]
Jim Bender
Is more Conservative and has more money. He has a better shot than Lamontange.  
[ Parent ]
Bender strikes me as a non-factor
I really can't see Bender getting any traction even with his money. Bender and Lamontagne are drawing votes from the same conservative pool.

And if there's any state where self-funding isn't going to get you anywhere, it's NH. When voters are used to meeting politicians individually, a ubiquitous TV presence doesn't mean much.



20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
I respect GOPVOTER on internal Republican battles but...
In this case, I'm sticking by my prediction.

[ Parent ]
That AG chart is . . . special
looks like they just took how the state is leaning politically this year and adjusted for incumbents.  Except California, can someone validate that one>

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
Here's what I know...
The Republican candidate is Steve Cooley, DA of Los Angeles County. It's the largest county in the state, home to about 1 in 4 Californians, and a major source of Democratic strength. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate is Kamala Harris, the DA of San Francisco County (coterminous with the city of San Fran), which is going to go Democratic by 40+ points anyway. So the problem is that Cooley has a really good geographic base.

Also Cooley is one of those conservative Republicans who does a good job fooling voters into believing he's a moderate.

That's all I can say, perhaps there are other factors at work though.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that one was whack
....especially with all of Cooley's free-ticket and free-other-stuff shenanigans now sullying his reputation. Plus, Harris has a good backstory, is a good fundraiser, and California is pretty darn blue. Likely Republican is a stretch.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
I agree
Likely R is a stretch, more like Leans R. Cooley has the advantage of being from L.A County, while Harris continues the annoying trend of almost every Democratic statewide candidate being from the Bay Area (we SoCal folks deserve more than just two offices jeez). It's easy to paint Harris as a SF Liberal, her refusal to use the Death Penalty on a cop-killer are all no-no's. But Cooley is somewhat moderate (by California standards), i remember NOM and the social conservatives calling him "pro-gay marriage" even though he's on record for defending Prop 8. Hopefully if he wins, he's not gonna be eyeing a Governor run.

I read the San Fransisco Chronicle's comments and most are Democrats who are voting for Cooley. Yikes.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, the Prop 8 thing really bothers me
about him, especially since I could very well wind up in Cali for grad school. ughh. And he's only 63 so a gubernatorial run down the line is definitely not out of the question. I wish we could stop him this year.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I guess this race
will be the one that really tests my theory that California is just too Democratic to elect even a moderate Republican barring a Democratic implosion. (So far, in all post-2000 statewide races the theory has been true.) While the LG is also likely to be a race, Maldonado is too easy to tie to "20%" Arnold.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
CA
California is similar to most northeastern states in that a moderate Republican can often beat a liberal Democrat. See the 2006 governor's race: Angelides wasn't a great candidate, but he wasn't an implosion.

It's harder for a moderate Republican to win a primary here than it is in the northeast. Whitman is trying to move back to the center on a bunch of issues after going to the right during the primary, and we'll see whether it comes back to haunt her.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Angelides
 Was not a good candidate at all. In the primary against Westley, all Angelides did was run negative. He had support from the unions but besides that, he did not have support from anyone else. Also, Schwarzenegger is basically a RINO for being great on all the environmental issues. Whitman will learn that she definitely has to be moderate if she wants to win reelection. I do not hate Meg policywise but I will never vote for her because something about her really annoys me and elections should be won, not bought!

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
If you define Westle as "implosion"
then Angelides was short of that, but otherwise, he was the worst candidate of the past 20 years.. aside from Cruz of course.
[ Parent ]
Cruz Bustamante was an embarassment, but
   he wasn't the worst CA candidate of the last twenty years. 1994 was only sixteen years ago (seems like a long time) and Kathleen Brown (then CA Treasurer and daughter and sister of former CA Governors) had the worst campaign of the last two decades.

    How much of that was because of her failings and how much was because of her bad campaign manager is arguable. IIRC her guy Clint Reilly so ruined his reputation that he hasn't run a major campaign since. Also of course, 1994 was a bad year for Democrats and "Gobernador Pedro" Wilson rode on the coattails of Prop 187. Still the candidate is ultimately responsible for the campaign and hers was really poor.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
I will have to disagree about Angelides
I distinctly remember one of Schwarzenegger's ads simply re-airing parts of Westley's old primary ads and asking at the end "What if Steve Westley was right?".  It was an incredibly acrimonious primary, and Schwarzenegger was able to capitalize on it in an otherwise strongly Democratic year.
[ Parent ]
Yup.
That is why this race fit my theory of Democrats losing in California as of 2000 only if they are very badly damaged or scandal-ridden.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
One advantage though
 Is that with all the turnout in the Bay Area, Harris will really turn out the base and also, her location in the Bay Area may turn into votes in counties like San Mateo, Contra Costa and Santa Clara Counties. I am working on a California Gubernatorial baseline diary right now which I am expecting to put up soon.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Problem is though...
we already have Gavin Newsom and Jerry Brown turning out voters in the Bay Area (as well as Barbara Boxer, although I hear she now lives in LA). And Dave Jones lives in Sacramento. The only people we have who could turn out voters in SoCal are Debra Bowen and John Chiang, and SoS and Controller are both lower-profile races.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Exactly
And a lack of Hispanic presence as well, except for maybe Larry Aceves who's running for State Superintendent if he wins against Bay-Area Assemblyman Tom Torlakson. Though luckily Jerry Brown is gonna be down here in Orange County on sunday. http://beta.oclabor.org/index....

Actually Barbara Boxer lives in Rancho Mirage (Riverside County) per CQ: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...  which is a far-and-away different area than the Sonoma/Marin County district she represented in the House, although i've also heard she lives in Oakland (Jerry Brown's home turf) so i'm not sure which is the right one.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
PPP
has its vote on where to poll this week.

California, Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky (that's going to win, it's just really disappointing that Tom included that), Maine (any Republicans that should be tested against Snowe in 2012?), Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Tom Jensen
said he might do the House races in WV or Maine.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
meh
I wouldn't mind seeing a PPP poll of Kentucky senate. They usually also poll the 2011 gov race right(probably too far out but still interesting). Although I also want to see where the Connecticut race is atm as I've heard a few worrying things about Blumenthal from people who live there, namely that he's running a lazy campaign.
[ Parent ]
WTF?!
West Virginia is winning.  Is there really any question that Manchin won't walk away with this one?  He is one of the more popular governors right now.

I voted for Texas, I wanna see how close White is to Perry.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Well
The Rasmussen poll showing Manchin up 48-42 despite having 70%+ approval ratings was pretty shocking and it would be good to get another poll in there to see if Ras was an outlier or whether Obama is so unpopular in WV it is actually dragging down Manchin.

I would be pretty shocked if the Ras poll wasn't an outlier tbh.

[ Parent ]
I do worry a little about WV-Sen
Not b/c Manchin isn't the obvious front-runner (it's probably a Lean D race, bordering on Likely D), but b/c Raese could blanket the state with enough money to force national Dems to pump some $$$ in (thus diverting resources from IN/MO). It's hard to fathom someone so popular being vulnerable, but there's often so much cross-over party voting here, and, thus, you can't take things for granted.

Right now, I see it as...

Democrat - 46%
GOP - 35%
Independent - 19%

Manchin - 80/27/55 = 56%
Raese - 20/73/45 = 44%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Manchin
I actually see him being far less vulnerable.  I rank this Safe Dem unless we see another poll point to this thing being within 15 points.  This is West Virginia remember.  They only vote Republican for President and for Congress in the most liberal district in the state.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I voted for WV
I voted for WV:
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

If the race is tighter than people think than Manchin needs to know that ASAP. Raese is a self funder. Which means he's got all the cash he needs to fund his run. If the race is close it helps Dems to know this ASAP to get resources to WV to counter act what Raese can spend.

Last thing Dems need right now is to ignore WV and let a Raese sneak up on Manchin.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't Manchin know anyway
from internal polling?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Did Coakley?
Then again, Manchin is no Martha Coakley.  
[ Parent ]
I disagree
WV-Sen isn't nearly that close; it's Rasmussen's trend of giving big primary bounces to Republican candidates. Raese is well known and still highly dislike from the campaign he ran against Byrd in 2006. He's a has been who is hated by labor, and dislike by the moderate, Capito wing of the WV-Republican party; so he lacks any sort of establishment backing and all the money in the world can't make voters like him. He spent something like 3 million dollars to get 34% of the vote in 2006. And that was running against an 89 year old, who quite honestly, everyone knew wasn't all there anymore, but still loved like a grandfather.

Oddly enough though, I think Rasmussen's polling of Colorado is a fairly good indicator of where this race is, comparing it to other polls and other issues such as fundraising, ads, etc, and where one would expect this race to be. I think Bennett still has a shot to hold this seat, a good one in my opinion.  

[ Parent ]
I voted for Maine, even though it's not going to win
Nobody's polling there except for occasionally Rasmussen.
[ Parent ]
I've been going to Redstate recently
I normally go over there to see their take on primaries and such, but recently I have been heading there multiple times a day.

I do this because the amount of squabbling over there is too rich.  The site seems evenly split on the AK GOP Primary to the point that one anti Miller (Anti Palin by extension) commenter told a pro Miller commenter that "[Sarah] ain't gonna' have sex with you, so you can get your hands out of your pockets." http://bit.ly/9Ol60O

This, in addition to the squabbling over the Delaware primary and the New Hampshire Primary should make anyone who loves cat fud to head over there and check it out even once.

One negative about going over there is that they don't always have their facts right (surprise, Right?), but other than that, its all good fun over at Redstate.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Redstate
I used to comment on Redstate a few years ago, but I really lost interest because it is worse than DailyKos.  Partisan hackness really just gets on my nerves.  This site leans left, but there are plenty of progressives on here who enjoy throwing their side under the bus too.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
"there are plenty of progressives on here who enjoy throwing their side under the bus too"
More importantly to me, there is an atmosphere of respect here. Despite differences in viewpoint, commenters here treat each other like human beings (and if that phrase sounds ridiculous, check out the comments section on most other major political blogs.) The lack of trolls and the thoughtful, analytical nature of both the moderators and the commenters is what brought me here despite my odd-man-out status as a Republican.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
ditto
on this site.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Thats exactly it
Summed it up perfectly.  
[ Parent ]
speaking of Republicans
I had another spot of curiosity GOPVOTER. Would you still vote for Angle if you lived in NV? I ask you this as a south Louisianan hearing her state she would oppose government aid post-Katrina. On top of all the rest of her craziness.  
[ Parent ]
I would
The poll workers would probably have to come in and sedate me when they heard my screaming and cursing out the rest of the NV Republican party, but I would vote VERY reluctantly for her.  
[ Parent ]
Just curious now,
What would Angle have to do to make you vote none of the above or third party?
[ Parent ]
This feels like it's going down a bad road IMHO
I know you don't mean any harm, jwaalk, but it seems to me if we expect Republicans on the site not to make partisan points, we shouldn't be asking them to do so voluntarily
[ Parent ]
Reasons I would Vote None of the Above
As a Republican, albeit a pretty moderate one, here are the reasons I would vote None of the Above:

1)  Her foreign policy - If you cannot support some basic form of what I call the interventionist consensus, you are irrational in my book and should be aggressively barred from office.  I would almost vote for Reid simply because of her irrational stances on this issue.

2)  Privatization of Medicare.  I would entertain a partial privatization or fee tied to a Means Testing formula that would require wealthy seniors to pay for at least part of their own care, but I could not support a privatization at this stage of the game for the entire program.

3)  Opposition to water fluoridation.  Again this is so irrational it makes me question her sanity.  Talk about a throw back to the moonbat 1950s.  I would not think its crazy if she made an argument based off cost, but she made some irrational babble argument for it.  I lived in a paranoid town in western Pennsylvania, which was controlled by conservaDem nutcases, for several years who were still preaching the government plot involving fluoridation.  

If I was Reid, he needs to hit her so hard on her irrational  stances that nobody would consider voting for her.  He needs to drive moderates to the polls to vote against her.  Not all will vote None of the Above.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I thought you were pro-choice too
Anyway, I can't see how any rational person could vote for a man like, say, Allen West, even you or MASSGOP or GOPVOTER who is it seems the most conservative user here. I really hope he doesn't win. This guy is seriously unhinged, as reading his last campaign summer proves http://campaign.r20.constantco...

Message to all liberals, name calling and petulant simpleton gimmicks dare not distract me from my mission; destroying the liberal progressive socialist machine and its legislative agenda......Klein is just a stepping stone to that end.

You will find that this Conservative will parry your weak punches and deliver knockout blows. If it is a fight for America you seek, you came to the right place.....and shall find yourselves fleeing in utter desperation, same as the pathetic liberal Congressman against whom I run. I invite all of you into the arena where this intellectual Warrior awaits you on the field of combat for principles of governance and ideals.

And West then ends his campaign wrap up by saying:

They have said I am a dangerous choice -  absolutely, I am dangerous to President Barack Hussein Obama, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and her Mama's boy Ron Klein....and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, do not try to hide little Ronnie behind your skirt, your association with his defeat would not bode well for your desired future as Pelosi's heir

This is also the man who called on his supporters to make Ron Klein afraid to go outside his house. God I really hope Klein can hold on, this district is so well gerrymandered...hopefully Sink's coattails will help him. Klein only won 55-45 last time, but I got the feeling that's because he took the race for granted.

[ Parent ]
Not to delve too much into policy, but
I do not vote on the abortion issue as neither party advocates what I would support so I rarely vote on the issue.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Ah, I mean
I just had you pegged as the sort of socially liberal, economically conservative voter that used to be so common in the northeastern Republican party.  
[ Parent ]
I would classify myself as such
The problem with the abortion issue is that room for a moderate compromise is not available unless Roe v. Wade is overturned.  Until that point, there is no point of really caring about the issue from my perspective.

Not to delve too much into policy, but since it has been brought up, I would support overturning Roe, legalizing abortion in the first trimester by statute, and allowing for abortion after the first trimester for physical health, rape and incest.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Mark is absolutely right
This path is not one we want to go down. Putting the few Republican commenters we have here under a microscope and prodding them with questions like: "Well, would you vote for Republican X if they favored Policy Y?" is something that I've been seeing more of lately, and I don't particularly like it or find it productive for anyone here.

So, please stay away from stuff like this in the future.

[ Parent ]
Alright,
I was just inquiring out of curiosity. It's always interesting to figure out where more politically involved voters for either party draw the line, and it also gives me an idea of what might happen in various races with a very flawed Republican candidate. I wasn't trying to put anyone under the microscope.  
[ Parent ]
I understand, but
I don't think you can extrapolate much from a sample size of two or three "SSP Republicans" -- and the potential for de-rail is just way too dangerous.

Thanks.

[ Parent ]
It would be hard
To vote for anything that helps Reid.  
[ Parent ]
this site
I like this site because it never degenerates into partisan flame wars. It helps that the mods encourage people to stick to horse-race issues instead of policy discussions. There are plenty of other sites to go to for policy stuff.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Spot on
This is the most civilized political blog that I've ever visited, even with the pronounced leftward tilt of the moderators and participants. RedState, and to a lesser extent Daily Kos, annoy me because a lot of discussions get far too emotional and devolve into namecalling matches.

The moderators do a solid job of keeping the discussions in line, and the analytical nature of the blog attracts intelligent individuals.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
A Democrat releasing their internals
Is North Carolina's 11th congressional district, Heath Shuler released his internals. This is from Anzalone Liszt Research.

Shuler 51% (D)
Miller 34% (R)

Shuler's approval is 62/32

Shuler is also going on the air with the size of the buy in the "high fives"

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Probably under 50
But infinitely better than SurveyUSA. What has happened to them?
[ Parent ]
De sen
In the de sen primary thread a lot of people were skeptical that castle would lose but I just want to point out the possible other good things that could happen if castle wins.

1. The primary will almost certainly cause his favs to go down.
2. It will force him and the rnc/tea party et al to spend money on a side war instead of the general
3. It could cause castle to go right giving the dem amo to attack castle with to turn dem voters away from castle.
4. A tea party loss takes some sine off the tea party which is good for good governance.  

There's very little down-side to a republic on republic escalilation of war :)
never forget that :p

Rand Paul
Rand Paul and his ilk drives me nuts, even if you are against the drug war as most liberals are and that has to be some of his appeal, its not like Rand or his dad would support federal funding for drug treatment programs so people at least have a shot to get back on their feet.

Same thing about foreign policy, do you think Rand cares about our troops or the Afghans for example? No, he just doesn't want his donors to have to pay taxes.  Conway should light this guy up on these matters.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

True, I also hear that people in KY are pretty hawkish.
Conway should also try to win the rural vote by pointing out how Rand Paul is opposed to farming subsidies.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Mick Mulvaney is on the air in SC-05
The spot is positive, introductory, and harmless. The buy is "in the six figures, airing on broadcast and cable stations." The district is largely in the Charlotte media market, though part of it may be in Columbia's.

Link: http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

I'm guessing
Based on the trends of the last few weeks, we will be seeing a few new ads launched everyday until the week before the election>
[ Parent ]
Sestak
going up with TV ads tomorrow.

Sestak's campaign has booked at least $110,870 worth of time on broadcast and cable television in Harrisburg, Pittsburgh, Johnstown and Wilkes-Barre, according to sources who track media buys. About 91 percent of the money will be spent on brodcast; the cable buys are mostly for spots during Phillies games and the Penn State football opener.

http://www.philly.com/philly/b...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Wish it was more
$100K for broadcast in thos markets can't go far.  All 4 are spearate/distinct markets too I believe, so its not much at all.

I'm wondering if this is a test run to see the feedback and do a bigger buy next week.

[ Parent ]
I think he's just getting his feet wet
I'm guessing Sestak is recyling the strategy he adopted during the primaries. He'll presumably wait until voter interest begins to rise, probably after Labor Day, and then release the hounds against Toomey. Plus he'll have the benefit of me campaigning for him when I get back to Philly next week :)

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
What kind of ads
I am curious what kind of ads he is running.  I suspect they are probably positive military bio ads or anti-Wall Street ads based off where they are running.  The markets where they are being ran are probably most receptive to those messages.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Redistricting App New Data
Just a heads up that I just uploaded Pennsylvania partisan data for Daves Redistricting App. (Thanks David H.!)

There is now partisan data for PA, NC, NM and MD (couple of people are working on fixing the broken parts of MD), as well as NY, TX and CA. For those last 3, you need to check "Use Test Data" because they have custom voting districts, courtesy of JeffMD.

Enjoy.

I can't tell you how
awesome this is. You deserve an SSP medal plus a truckload of chocolate Babka.

Speaking of Babka, when's the next redistricting contest James? I think we should have one for Texas; I have an awesomely realistic compromise map for it.  

[ Parent ]
Have you
posted it?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Nope, not enough incentive
to put in the effort, lol, been so lazy. I make a new map before I get around to posting the old :D
[ Parent ]
You. Are. Amazing.
But if the rest of my life goes down the tube because I'm spending too much time with the app, I'm holding all responsible parties accountable! :D

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Win!
I can't thank you (and everyone else who has put time and effort into this) enough. Thanks for making this nerd happy. :D

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Thanks
I have been working on my Pennsylvania maps for awhile now.  This will allow some fine tweaking.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
North Carolina Redistricting
Will someone make a redistricting map of North Carolina that accounts for the Republicans there having control of at least one chamber of the General Assembly?  The Republicans in the state have a good shot at winning control of the State Senate with the State House being winnable but unlikely.  I think in North Carolina the governor has no control over redistricting.
[ Parent ]
Here you go, I made this a couple months ago:

Click for bigger.

NC-01 (blue, G.K. Butterfield - D) - The majority-black district. 52% black, snakes down into Raleigh. 66-34 Obama.
NC-02 (green, Bob Etheridge - D) - Totally screwed over Etheridge by putting the Dem parts of his district in NC-07. 61-39 McCain.
NC-03 (purple, Walter Jones - R) - Still sprawls the length of the Outer Banks. Takes in Wilmington now, but remains a solidly Republican district; 56-43 McCain. I suppose it could potentially be endangered, in an open seat situation and a good Dem year, but how likely is that to happen?
NC-04 (red, David Price - D) - The Durham/Chapel Hill district, no contest here. 65-34 Obama.
NC-05 (yellow, Virginia Foxx - R) - I don't think this changed too terribly much. Just a touch less Republican now, it's 60-39 McCain.
NC-06 (darker teal, Howard Coble - R) - Also mostly unchanged, this suburban Greensboro district remains solidly Republican at 59-40 McCain.
NC-07 (grey, Mike McIntyre - D) - The genius here is Etheridge is screwed out of his seat while one of the most dogged of Blue Dogs gets a safe Dem seat. Basically takes all the Dem territory in the south-central part of the state. 57-42 Obama.
NC-08 (lighter purple, Larry Kissell - D) - Reconfigured to be more favorable to the Republicans. This one flips from Obama to McCain, it's now 52-47 McCain.
NC-09 (light teal, Sue Myrick - R) - Still a suburban Charlotte district, still safe for the Republicans. Partisan balance pretty much unchanged, at 55-44 McCain.
NC-10 (magenta, Patrick McHenry - R) - Goes northeast instead of north/northwest now. 61-38 McCain, the most Republican district in the state.
NC-11 (light green, Heath Shuler - D) - What are you going to do with this thing? Not much. 52-46 McCain.
NC-12 (light purple Y-shape, Mel Watt - D) - What's good for Democrats is good for Republicans. Watt's district nets heavily-Democratic parts of Greensboro, Charlotte, and Winston-Salem. The most Dem district at 74-25 Obama.
NC-13 (pink, Brad Miller - D) - Reconfigured to be more of a swing district than a Dem-leaning one. Takes in suburban Wake County, parts of Raleigh, and some parts of the rural counties to the east. 53-46 Obama.

Etheridge would almost certainly lose NC-02, Kissell (if he wins this year) would be endangered in NC-08, as would be Miller in NC-13.

[ Parent ]
That's not much of a compromise map
More like a Republican gerrymander.  
[ Parent ]
Yes, it is
a compromise map wouldn't look too different from the current one; since it would likely be an incumbent protection map, about the only big change would be, assuming Kissell lost, making NC-08 more Republican.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
It is a very well constructed map.  McIntyre could easily face a credible primary challenge in such a district.  I wonder how much the 12th district can be made more compact and still be a VRA district.    
[ Parent ]
Thank you
 This is so great with getting all the data on the app. Thank you!

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Election night
So, whats election night around here like? Is it like a normal primary night (except with a lot more races), or is there something special? Just wondering since were only 2 months away.  
we all meet in a bar
that's equadistant from where we all live, get drunk and at the end of the night, egg the house of the biggest idiot of the night (usually a coakley type politician, or a the NRCC chairman).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I hate to say this but
SSP is probably going to crash. All of us election geeks are going nuts and all trying to access the site at once and the server just can't handle that. That's what happened during Election Night 2009. Shame, because election night is the most fun time to be at SSP otherwise!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sad but true
I would be curious what the costs are of uping the server capacity at least temporarily.  I would be willing to consider chipping in some if we had a little reader campaign to get adequate server space on election night.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Same here.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
It crashed
The night of MA-Sen. I can only imagine election night. SSP is really the only site that offers live election results, as well as analyzation of the numbers as they come in.  
[ Parent ]
You
can see what 2008 was like by going back in the archives. I just did that.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
SC-SEN
who are these people who want to vote for Greene? Hipsters voting for him ironically?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
That
as well as people voting for him for the lulz knowing that he won't win, as well as diehard Democrats who would vote for a rotting corpse with a (D) next to its name.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Worse candidates have got more votes....
Remember Alan Keyes got 27 percent against Barack Obama in 2004.  Alvin Greene is a likable fellow compared to Alan Keyes.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Alan Keyes
Allen West, Michael Steele, J.C. Watts, how come all the black Republicans are either unhinged, dishonest, or extremely conservative? You'd think there would be some moderate black Republicans, but such a thought is, well, laughable.  
[ Parent ]
Colin Powell, Edward Brooke
Watts voted for Obama, then there is
http://www.bookerrising.net/
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry, I always think
of Colin Powell as a solidly non-partisan guy, and Edward Brooke is a 90 year old example from the 1960s and 70s, and from Massachusetts no less. Watts did not vote for Obama, (in fact he even donated to John McCain), he said in an interview he considered voting for Obama out of frustration over the complete lack of Republican outreach to minorities during the campaign. Though Watts probably is the closest thing to a sane moderately conservative Republican there is, and maybe one of the few reasonable, black Republican politicians that I can think of.
[ Parent ]
Don't forget the corrupt Gary Franks
He was probably the worst.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Tim Scott will join the ranks this year
I wonder if he'll act as a sort of successor to Watts.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
It's probably the same uninformed 20% that voted for him in the primary
and they will be shocked to find out they havent been voting for Al Green!

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...
[ Parent ]
IA-01
Bruce Braley went up on tv Monday night in Cedar Rapids and the Quad Cities, responding to last week's hit job from the American Future Fund.
CO-Gov: Hickenlooper up 8, Tancredo fizzling
If Hickenlooper is only at 40% of the vote...
The GOP would have won this in a landslide if they got a decent candidate to run. I bet half the GOP pols in Colorado are kicking themselves for clearing the field for the plagarist.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...
[ Parent ]
Before the plagarism broke
Hick was close to McInnis who was considered a good get for the RGA. What I noticed in that poll is it is the first time I have seen a candidate (Tancredo) lose votes when Rasmussen includes leaners.
[ Parent ]
Especially
Josh Penry, for dropping out. Tom Tancredo too, for not running in the first place.  
[ Parent ]
Hick up 19
According to the Republicans at Magellan.

http://www.magellanstrategies....

[ Parent ]
MN-Gov: Dayton, Emmer tied 34-34, Horner at 13
The sample is messed up in that poll
46% - GOP?????
41% - Dem
13% - Independent

Not in Minnesota.

[ Parent ]
46% GOP in Minnesota?????
Nope, not buying it. (Thank God, too - Emmer is the guy I want least to win this year).  
[ Parent ]
Bad Sample
That poll is definitely a bad sample and gives me more confidence that Emmer is losing. The electorate in MN on election day will not be even close to 46% GOP.
[ Parent ]
I actually hope Rasmussen will poll this
They would come up with a more accurate sample.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, it is a funky model...
If I apply their internals to my projected model, I get...

GOP - 39%
Democrat - 36%
Independent - 25%

Dayton - 8/65/23 = 32%
Emmer - 66/5/13 = 31%
Horner - 9/15/26 = 16%
Undecided - 17/16/38 = 21%

Which, of course, isn't so great either. You have to give Dayton edge, though, given he's outweighing Emmer among the group with the most undecideds.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen rankings
Latest Ohio and Pennsylvania polls are out - Portman up 5 (6 with leaners) apparently equals tossup despite the financial disparity. Toomey leads by 6 (6 with leaners) which equals leans Republican. Odd.
SSP Daily Digest: 8/30 (Afternoon Edition) | 130 comments

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