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Louisiana and West Virginia Primary Results

by: Crisitunity

Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 2:03 PM EDT


Swing State Project came down with a rare case of Saturday Night Fever over the weekend, with regularly scheduled primaries in Louisiana and the Senate special primary in West Virginia.

Louisiana: For a brief moment there, back in June, David Vitter vs. Chet Traylor looked like it was going to be a fascinating GOP primary. In the end, though, Traylor's failure to raise money or increase his profile, along with Louisianans' decidedly laissez-faire (or is it laissez-les-bons-temps-rouler?) approach to their politicians' peccadilloes, let Vitter escape with an 88-7 victory. That's actually better than Charlie Melancon's 71% against no-name opposition.

Two House races also had some drama. In LA-02 the question was more one of whether state Rep. Cedric Richmond could avoid a runoff against Juan LaFonta, rather than whether he could get the most votes. In the end, he did, winning 60-21 -- despite a late financial onslaught from a deep-pocketed LaFonta-backing attorney, Stuart Smith, who created an anti-Richmond PAC called Louisiana Truth PAC -- and will face endangered GOP accidental incumbent Joe Cao in November. In LA-03, former state House speaker Hunt Downer was the presumed frontrunner, but barely even squeaked into a runoff with attorney Jeff Landry; Landry got 49.6% to Downer's 36%. Maybe it's not that surprising, as Downer got in late and Landry had been running and fundraising all cycle; also, Landry had the teabagger cred while Downer was dragged down by the twin lead zeppelins of "establishment" and "former Democrat." Downer has shrugged off calls for him to withdraw and avoid prolonging the fight, so the battle in the runoff (for the right to face Dem Ravi Sangisetty) will be for those 14% of voters who went for fellow teabagger Kristian Magar.

West Virginia: Not much drama was expected here, and none was to be found. Gov. Joe Manchin won the Democratic nomination against a challenge from the left from former Rep., former SoS, and former Truman (!) administration official Ken Hechler, 73-17. He'll face John Raese, whom you may remember spending millions of his own money in 2006 to finish in the mid-30s against Robert Byrd. Raese won the 10-person GOP field, drawing 71%. (The only other GOPer to break double-digits, at 15, was Mac Warner, last seen losing the WV-01 primary this spring.)

Crisitunity :: Louisiana and West Virginia Primary Results
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I know it's SSP's policy to ignore Rasmussen
but they just released a poll showing Manchin under 50.

And showing Manchin with a 73% approval rating


[ Parent ]
Seriously, how does one have a 73% approval but doesn't break 50?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I get it.
It's the old Mayor Ed Koch problem. They like the job he's doing as Governor so much that voters want to keep him Governor rather than promote him to Senate and have some they like a lot less take over as Governor. Also think the disparity could be a factor of they like Manchin on the local level but dont want someone who will support the so called "Obama agenda" going to Washington.

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[ Parent ]
Lincoln Chafee had the same problem.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen is really reaching with that one
Manchin has enough popularity to be over 50% right now.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Believe what you want
I report, you decide. All I know is that Rasmussen is a well-respected pollster and this deserves some discussion. If WV becomes a tossup, then the chances of the Republicans retaking the Senate increase drastically.

[ Parent ]
West Virginia will not become a tossup
It's a ridiculous poll, no one with high approvals is going to be under 50%. It doesn't happen like that.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Its happened before
Where extremely popular govs end up losing in the end because voters like them better as a governor than a senator.  

[ Parent ]
Ben Nelson
1996 comes to mind.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
"Rasmussen is a well-respected pollster"
  LOL! or maybe even ROTFLMAO!...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Not ignore
We just keep them in their own containment chamber.

[ Parent ]
In fairness, SSP doesn't ignore Rasmussen
They just group their polls at the end of the daily summary. This is partially because Rasumussen's flood the zone strategy with polls means there's too many to comment on.

BTW, for those who didn't see it, Steve Singiser had an excellent analysis of the Rasmussen effect on Kos the other day:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...


[ Parent ]
Ras was the first to show Coakley/Brown as a competitive race
They released a poll that had Coakley up 49-40 in early January, before which all polls had given her a healthy, 20+ point lead. The "snowball effect" really started there, and Brown made up the gap over the next 2 weeks.

This poll reminds me a lot of that one, but there are 2 key differences: this is post-primary rather than 2 weeks before the election, and Manchin doesn't seem like a guy who would run a Coakley-esque campaign.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
While true, that race made me respect Rasmussen less...
He did come out with that poll, but never came out with anything before the election. It's very frustrating about Rasmussen that he doesn't seem to want to put anything on the line by polling right before a race (another example - Rasmussen did a number of polls of Haysworth-McCain, but none within close proximity of the primary).

That will have to change in the fall, obviously.  


[ Parent ]
I should probably clarify and say
He never came out with anything right before the election

[ Parent ]
He's agonizing, isn't he?
He releases polls of races like KS-Gov and VT-Sen that no one else bothers polling because they're non-competitive, but won't poll primaries and wouldn't take another poll of MA-Sen. It's like he's afraid of being wrong. But he did so well across the board in 2008 (despite being an R-leaning pollster in a big Democratic year) that you would think he'd be confident in his ability to get races right.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
We
never did see that poll from Rasmussen seeing how well Bayh would of done against Dan Coats. Though I guess it didn't matter anyway because Bayh packed it up a few weeks later.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
He didn't do well
In swing states. On average he was about five points off in the most competitive states. SurveyUSA and PPP were both noticibly better.

[ Parent ]
Yes, he set a new narrative...
...and the media ate it up and gave Brown the lift he needed for his campaign.  It was a political play and it worked.  Fortunately, Manchin isn't as stupid as Coakley was.

It should be noted that some other pollster gave Manchin a massive lead last week.  


[ Parent ]
That poll
Was from early August. They never posted it until last week though. Also, for the record, another pollster in the week that the first Rasmussen poll came out showed Coakely up by only 11, so it was not only Rasmussen. Remember, Brown had been running ads while Coakley was receiving bad press for going on vacation in the middle of the election.  

[ Parent ]
Isn't this all a derail of this diary topic? I thought is was also SSP's policy not to allow that.
Especially Republican cheerleading.

[ Parent ]
Not really a derail
A) Discussing a WV-Sen poll in a WV-Sen recap thread isn't really offtopic.

B) That post isn't what I would classify as Republican cheerleading.


[ Parent ]
WV-Sen Primary is over now cue the close Rasmussen poll....
Rasmussen is up with its 1st post primary Wat Virginia Senate poll.

Its got a close race with Democratic Governor Joe Manchin up 48% to Republican John Raese's 42%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

I'm kind of shocked at a 48% to 42% race. I always though Manchin would win in a landslide.

Now cue the SSP Rasmussen bashing.....

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Already
happening above you :)

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
I know I started to post but got distracted by a phone call..
when I got back and finally finished my post I saw I got beat to the punch. News just flows that fast here at SSP!

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[ Parent ]
PPP
If they show it's a close race, then I'll believe it. I'm pretty down on the Dems chances in November but I just don't see an extremly popular candidate like Manchin losing simply because West Virginians hate Obama with a passion.


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