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AK-Sen: The Saga Continues

by: James L.

Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 11:26 AM EDT


Another day, another dose of protein-enriched cat fud from the bitter Republican ballot battle between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski. This is what it's all about, people.

  • The New Math: The Alaska Division of Elections announced over the weekend that they now have 23,472 ballots (and counting) to process. That number includes 13,740 absentee ballots (out of 16,000 that were requested), 9,069 questioned ballots, and 663 uncounted early votes. It bears repeating, of course, that not all of these ballots are Republican, and that some will inevitably be invalidated rather than counted. The first batch of votes will be counted on Tuesday, with additional counts on September 3rd and 8th. We don't know how many votes will be counted tomorrow, but the Anchorage Daily News is reporting that the DoE will determine the number at some point today.
  • Hope for Murkowski?: The Juneau Empire took a closer look at where the absentee ballots are coming from, and finds that a "slightly larger" portion of the absentees are coming from Murkowski-friendly areas:

    The biggest portion of the ballots remaining to be counted are absentees, which share some significant traits with a type of ballot that has already been counted: early ballots.

    Both early votes and absentee votes were cast by voters who sometimes weren't exposed to the last days of the campaign, which saw Sarah Palin making automated phone calls to Republican voters on behalf of Miller and Tea Party Express-funded ads making attacks on Murkowski.

    While Miller won election-day voting 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent, Murkowski won 54.1 percent to 45.9 percent among early voters.

    About three-quarters of the votes cast Tuesday were in the hotly contested Republican races for governor, lieutenant governor and senator. If that margin holds and the absentee votes mimic the early votes, that could eliminate Miller's lead, the Empire's analysis shows.

    Also, a slightly larger proportion of the absentee votes come from areas where Murkowski ran strongly. Her strongest areas were in Southeast, where she was born, in Anchorage, which she represented in the Alaska Legislature, and in the Bush. Miller, from Fairbanks, was most strong in the Interior and the Mat-Su Valley.

  • Fear and Loathing in the Mat-Su Valley: Joe Miller's sure been off to a great start in displaying Senatorial temperament, first getting nailed by us for comparing the Murkowski/Libertarian Party situation to prostitution and now snarling in the direction of the NRSC:

    Miller telephoned POLITICO Friday night, in an apparent preemptive strike against absentee-ballot challenges by Republican officials.

    "We're very disturbed over the fact that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has chosen to send a group of high-powered lawyers up here to Alaska to interfere with our election process," Miller said.

    "It appears that they're trying to steal an election. The fact of it is, is that they only have one [goal], and it certainly is not the integrity of the election. It's to skew the results against Joe Miller." [...]

    "We've received calls from many people that have been queried - absentee voters who are asked who they voted for," Miller said. "We believe that the votes ought to be counted appropriately, as they always have, without the interference of lawyers that are out there calling Alaskan voters to see how they voted, and without making challenges to the ballots."

    Way to make friends, Joe! Of course, Miller can publicly abuse the NRSC as much as he wants, and that organization will react as stony-faced as the Queen's Guard staring down a throng of ill-mannered children. At the end of the day, the committee will offer their full support to Miller -- should he be the nominee -- but you can bet they'll be grimacing on the inside if they need to do so.

    In the Anchorage Daily News, Miller campaign spokesman Randy DeSoto doubled down on the allegations, saying that the NRSC is engaged in a "nefarious" scheme to "throw out ballots" marked for Miller. I note with some amusement that Miller is accusing Murkowski of attempting to "pull an Al Franken", while also drawing attention to the fact that one of Norm Coleman's recount lawyers is apparently providing assistance to Murkowski. I guess the phrase "pulling a Norm Coleman" doesn't have the same cachet in teabagger circles.

  • The Libertarian Option: Joe Miller's tweet became a lot more famous than the article to which it was attempting to draw attention, but there was some good dirt in that particular Daily Caller article from Alaska Libertarian chair Scott Kohlhaas:

    Scott Kohlhaas, state chairman for the Libertarian Party of Alaska, told TheDC that a number of things have to happen before any decision is made. "Rumors are flying but I really have no comment on them because, I mean, Lisa would have to decide to do it and then our candidate would have to decide to voluntarily step down [and] then our executive committee would have to vote on a decision."

    Kohlhaas said he has no illusions about the fact that Murkowski is not a Libertarian, but says that having her run as one would be a way to get more publicity for the Party and possibly help the Party gain seats in state legislatures. "There are 7,000 state legislative seats out there and we don't have one," he said. "As far as getting the name out there, this episode is doing that much better than any one state legislative seat would. And in terms of morale for our Party a state [senator] would be a real gain for us."

    At the end of the day Kohlaas recognizes that having Murkowski run as a member of the Libertarian Party would certainly "confuse some people because she is not libertarian."

    "But that happens all the time. Our job is to educate and get the philosophy out there," he said. "If we decide to do this it will advance the Party and believe me we won't do this for nothing."

    Kohlhaas said that it will ultimately be up to David Hasse to decide if he would be willing to step aside.

    "Yesterday, he was inclined to do this but today maybe not," Kohlhaas said.

    A lot of "ifs" there, of course. Murkowski certainly has her share of supporters who would like to see her commandeer the Libertarian line, including Andrew Halcro, who says that he's shelling out for a Dittman Research poll in order to see how Murkowski would do in a three-way race against Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams. (Of course, we've already seen a poll like that, but perhaps Dittman will find more encouragement for Murk.)

  • Facing the Nation: Miller appeared on CBS yesterday to give us all a taste of his overwhelmingly tea-stained agenda, and he had headlines like this one to show for it back home:

    Miller: Alaska should forgo federal help

    Uncle Ted this guy ain't! Miller also stuck by his openness to privatize Social Security, moderating himself only to say that those who have paid into the program already can keep their benefits (this despite also suggesting that Medicare and Social Security are unconstitutional). How magnanimous of him! Of course, that's the kind of talk that tickles the erogenous zones of the nutters at the Club for Growth, and The Creative Team Who Brought You Bill Sali is now saying that they'll direct fundraising dollars to Miller.

  • The Real Deal: Meanwhile, tacked on at the end of a piece on the booming salmon harvest up in Alaska, we have some more color on Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, who sounds like a staunchly reality-based dude:

    At a press conference after the primary election, McAdams, who grew up in Petersburg, said commercial fishing "goes to the core of my identity."

    "I learned to read, write and reason in a town where 85 cents on the dollar came from commercial fishing," McAdams said. "I spent five years as a deckhand working in fisheries throughout the state.

    "I seined in Southeast, Kodiak, I hand-bait longlined in the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. I have an appreciation and a great affinity for the lifestyle and the culture, and for the need for commercial fishing in our state."

    McAdams also picked up the endorsement of the Alaska AFL-CIO over the weekend (along with his fellow Democratic ticket-mates... and EFCA-backer Don Young). I'm looking forward to hearing more from and about McAdams once this Republican cat fud buffet is closed.

  • James L. :: AK-Sen: The Saga Continues
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    You know, I gotta admit, I never really contemplated
    Murkowski actually pulling this out. This is the first article I've seen that suggests that's a possibility.

    If that happens, this will be third Alaska race in the past two years where the absentee ballots have changed what everyone thinks of the race (Don Young's primary win and Ted Stevens evenual loss being the other two examples)  


    I figured that much
    Remember the other thread, where I bet that Miller's lead would shrink?

    There are two groups of voters here:
    * tea-partier activists, who would always have voted for Miller
    * non-TP Republicans, who are more likely to have voted for Miller the later they cast their vote

    I was betting that the second group was larger among absentees.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    [ Parent ]
    (Insert Mr. Burns here -- Exxxxxxxxxcellent!!!)
    This thing is going to take forever to sort out, with each side growing more angry by the day!!!!

    Careful
    ... a slightly larger proportion of the absentee votes come from areas where Murkowski ran strongly ...

    There are some 13,470 absentees to count. If they follow the primary trend, 10,300 are Republican ballots. Let's then assume that a somewhat higher percentage came from Anchorage than during the general. That might push the trend from 51 Miller, 49 Murk up to, say, 56 Murk, 44 Miller. That takes Miller's overall margin down to 500 votes or so with the questioned ballots to go.

    But.

    That's a best case scenario and ignores that a lot of the Anchorage absentees will come from military voters who will favor West Point Joe. The questioned ballots are usually people voting in a new precinct or recent registrations so they'd tend to favor Miller as well.

    I'd like to see Murkowski win but I don't think the numbers are there.


    How much did Joe actually outreach to military voters?
    Or did he, with his under-the-radar and tea-stained strategy, focus on other tea partiers?

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Miller
    Miller didn't do much of anything.

    The damage was done by radio and tv ads placed in the last month by the Tea Party Express. They focused on 'the Murkowski seat' and reminded voters how Lisa got the office in the first place and then hammered away at her support for TARP and luke-warm resistance to health care.

    Palin's last minute robocall was also a factor.


    [ Parent ]
    Someone needs to tell the Miller campaign...
    that when the official count was over after the Canvassing Board carefully went over all the absentee ballots, Al Franken was LEADING by 225 votes, and that the Coleman camp was the one that sued.

    So if Miller's camp wants to run with the "pull an Al Franken", that would imply he's saying Murkowski will finish AHEAD of him once the absentees are counted, and that Miller's people will be the ones suing.

    Preferably, someone would question Miller about this on camera.  :-)


    Franken
    Dec 19, 2008: the latest vote count in the Senate race between Republican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman and challenger, Al Franken, the former comedian.

    The current count has Franken leading by 266 votes, the first time he's been ahead. Franken received a boost yesterday when a court ruled that contested absentee votes had to be counted.

    Franken trailed for 6 weeks.


    [ Parent ]
    Coleman trailed for 6 months.


    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Longest Senate count ever
    That count went on for so long I started wondering if Minnesota would ever have a second Senator.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Poor Amy Klobuchar.
    Btw, I believe Coleman conceded in July 2009, but I think the record for longest post-election vacancy was a New Hampshire senate election back in the 70s, which was not filled until September, a 10-month vacancy.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Don't take too much pity on Amy.
    She got sky-high approval after she was the only senator for half a year. That may be the difference in making her the first senator from Minnesota reelected since 1996!

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    1974, To be exact
    That recount was such a clustermug that the Senate ultimately refused to seat either candidate, forcing New Hampshire to do the whole election over again.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

    Fortunately Minnesota didn't get quite that bad. ;)

    27, Democratic, IL-01


    [ Parent ]
    You're new here
    And you need to learn the rules of the road. This is not some kind of free-for-all open forum. The Swing State Project is a progressive website devoted to the discussion of horserace politics - not a place for Republicans to try to score points in debate. There are a few Republican commenters around here, though. If you hope to last here, we suggest you sit back and spend a few weeks reading, rather than commenting, and observing the other Republicans on here as a model to follow.

    [ Parent ]
    I guess if Miller wins. . .
    Young had better ratchet up his pork wrangling for AK.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    I wonder, what if it was
    just a Miller-McAdams race, would Young go out and start campaigning for McAdams, who he has a lot more in common with in background and political ideology than the teabagging, anti-labor, anti-government Miller.  

    [ Parent ]
    No
    Not a chance. Don Young is 80 years old but has lived the last 40 in DC. He has nothing in common with McAdams or any other Alaskans.

    Conventional wisdom is that he only stayed in office so he could keep raising campaign money to pay his legal bills. He spent over $1 million fighting possible ethics charges over trading favors for donations. A few months ago, ethics comm announced they were closing the book with no charges brought so now he can retire. His wife died a year or so ago, took a lot of fight out of him.


    [ Parent ]
    I still think he'd endorse
    McAdams. This is the guy who insulted Scott Garrett on the House Floor for suggesting Alaska's federal aid be cut back. Now you have a candidate like Miller? Plus, Miller is not a rural Alaskan like Young, who worked odd jobs when he first moved to Fort Yukon in the 1950s, like McAdams. On top of everything else, Miller is anti-labor, while Young is, perhaps, the most pro-labor Republican in Washington. I think the odds are good for at least an endorsement. And Rep. Young is 77 years old.  

    [ Parent ]
    Oh man, I hope so
    That would be the ultimate payback to the Palinites for their take down attempt of 2008.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    A couple of other points
    1. Miller has filed a couple of complaints with the Div or Elections over interference by Murk poll watchers during absentee counting. Those complaints will go to the Lt Gov who heads Div Elec. Lt Gov Craig Campbell is a lame duck, not running for re-election. He is retired military and came to state govt in 06 when he was appointed Commissioner of Military Affairs by ... Sarah Palin. When Palin resigned, Lt Gov Sean Parnell moved up to Gov and then selected Campbell as Lt Gov.

    2. Campbell would presumably have to rule on any candidate switch. If the Libertarian Party asked to remove their candidate and replace him with Lisa Murkowski, Lt Gov would have to approve this. The current Libt candidate, Frederick Haase, is healthy and pulled almost 5,000 votes in the primary. Would the Lt Gov approve a blatant poltical move that would "thwart the will of the voters"? What would prevent a rich guy from waiting to see who won the primary and then buying his way onto the ballot?

    3. The Libertarian option may be dead - apparently the party met over the weekend and voted on the issue and have scheduled an announcement "soon", complete with press conference. Since the votes haven't been tallied, one would think that they will say they will 'stand on their principles' and not sell out.

    4. Lisa M may already know this. Larry Sabato Tweeted yesterday 'Private word from Murky camp is her family favors write-in bid (not Libertarian) if she loses. No doubt emotions up & down. We'll see'  

    5. A write-in would be tough but Miller might make it easier ... said on nat'l TV yesterday that Alaska should take less fed money. That won't play well here.

    6. John Cornyn has told Miller he's 'pulling his team out.'


    Where are you getting #2?
    The relevant state statute says absolutely nothing to that effect:

    Sec. 15.25.110. Filling vacancies by party petition.

    If a candidate of a political party nominated at the primary election dies, withdraws, resigns, becomes disqualified from holding the office for which the candidate is nominated, or is certified as being incapacitated in the manner prescribed by this section after the primary election and 48 days or more before the general election, the vacancy may be filled by party petition. The central committee of any political party or any party district committee may certify as being incapacitated any candidate nominated by their respective party by presenting to the director a sworn statement made by a panel of three licensed physicians, not more than two of whom may be of the same political party, that the candidate is physically or mentally incapacitated to an extent that would in the panel's judgment prevent the candidate from active service during the term of office if elected. The director shall place the name of the person nominated by party petition on the general election ballot. The name of a candidate disqualified under this section may not appear on the general election ballot.



    [ Parent ]
    Well
    Moot point but the Lt Gov could have refused to allow the Libts to replace their candidate and then fought in court.

    Withdrawing because you are sick or your wife is dying is one thing; withdrawing because you got paid off is another.


    [ Parent ]
    I'm not prone to conspiracy theories
    But I have long wondered whether the Club for Growth was an elaborate, decades-long conspiracy by wealthy Democrats to undermine the GOP from the inside. In this cycle alone they've dashed our chances in Nevada and lost ID-1. They never contribute positively to electing Republican candidates; they just ensure that we nominate the least electable one.

    Well
    I think you were screwed on ID-01 anyway. Vaughn Ward was rapidly approaching Bill Sali territory.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Well they could elect one former CFG president to a US Senate seat...
    Just like the Dems have their left wing the GOP has their right.

    I think the Club for Growth has had a very interesting effect on the GOP. While it is a conservative group its definately a different conservative group. Its focus is mainly economic. Anti-tax, free trade, less government regulations.

    I think they were trying to act as a counter balance to the influence of the religious right social conservative wing in the GOP as well as the establishment Washington wing.

    While they have made common cause with some social cons its really important to understand the difference between the various wings and not lump them all together.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    No Libertarian ballot line for Murkowski
    Her only chance if she loses the primary is a write-in campaign.

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    I just realized
    a Murkowski write-in campaign would actually be really funny. How many people in Alaska can spell her name? I would foresee lots of hilarity similar to that from the Shelley "Snelly Gibbr" "Dracula****" Sekula-Gibbs saga.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    It would be worth it
    ....Just for that!  

    Well, actually, it wouldn't be worth a Senate seat, but it sure would be fun!

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]

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