SSP Daily Digest: 8/26 (Afternoon Edition)

AZ-Sen: Bad news! For John McCain! J.D. Hayworth still hasn’t conceded. He’s still waiting for those late-breaking absentee ballots to help him make up that oh-so-narrow 56-32 margin, apparently.

CT-Sen: This doesn’t seem like it’ll end well for Linda McMahon, whose stance on WWE has been that it’s harmless soap opera. Harley McNaught, the father of recently-deceased pro wrestler Lance Cade (who died of heart failure at age 29 in the wake of painkiller addiction), is going on the offense against McMahon in response to her comments that she “might have met him once.” McNaught said that he’d been to several functions with his son where they’d met McMahon and she’d known him by name, and also ripped the company’s “Wellness Program,” which he says was more about PR than about helping employees.

DE-Sen: There’s no third-party fallback option for teabagger Christine O’Donnell, challenging Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination. The Constitution Party had nominated O’Donnell for its ballot line, but didn’t even receive a ballot line after its membership dwindled to 287(!) members. (That’s less than something called the “Blue Enigma Party,” which still qualified for the ballot.) O’Donnell still can mount a write-in campaign after losing the primary to Castle (which she already did in the 2006 race after losing the primary to Jan Ting).

KY-Sen: Our James L. summed this up pithily: “Douche Day Afternoon.” Losing Dem Senate candidate Dan Mongiardo’s latest statement of semi-support for Jack Conway was that Conway was “not the best” but that “he’s a heck of a lot better” than Rand Paul, whose “scare[s him].”

PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): The newest Franklin & Marshall poll is another one of their choose-your-own-adventure specials, which shows the dimensions of the enthusiasm gap the Dems are facing, especially in the Keystone State. In the Senate race, Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak 40-31 among likely voters, but only 31-28 among registered voters, which isn’t much different from where we left off with their last general election poll in May. And in the gubernatorial race, it’s similar, with Tom Corbett leading Dan Onorato 38-27 among LVs, but only 29-28 (probably the best showing I’ve seen in a head-to-head in this race) among RVs.

FL-Gov: With Hayworth and Murkowski already mentioned today, it’s just turning out to be the big day of GOP disunity and sour grapes all around. While figures like Jeb Bush and state party chair John Thrasher have gotten behind Rick Scott without any major hedging, Bill McCollum is continuing his sulk, flat-out not endorsing Scott.  

KY-Gov: The aptly-named Republican Agriculture Commissioner, Richie Farmer (I guess “Rich Farmer” was a little too overly descriptive), is still mulling over a run for Governor in next year’s off-year election against Dem incumbent Steve Beshear, where early polling has shown he’d be competitive. He’s also been linked to a possible Lt. Gov. bid, as running mate to state Senate president David Williams.

SC-Gov: In another sign that a chunk of the local political establishment prefers Dem Vincent Sheheen to GOPer Nikki Haley, Sheheen just got the endorsement of 30 mayors around South Carolina. Most of these mayors are in nonpartisan elected positions, although one, Greer mayor Rick Danner, said he was a two-time voter for Mark Sanford.

VT-Gov: Faced with the unenviable task of certifying her own gubernatorial primary loss, SoS Deb Markowitz says that the final certification of the super-close race in Vermont will be done on next Tuesday. All five candidates appeared amicably at a unity rally yesterday, but only shortly after Doug Racine’s campaign manager called Peter Shumlin’s declaration of victory premature, saying to wait until Tuesday. Shumlin currently leads Racine by 192 votes.

AL-02: Rep. Bobby Bright caused some hyperventilating today when it came out that, in meeting with constituents, had punted on the issue of whether or not he’d be voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker next session. He did so by listing a number of reasons why that might not be an issue, including the decidedly morbid “heck, she might even get sick and die.”

CA-18: I don’t know who looks worse in this situation, Mike Berryhill (the Republican launching an uphill, but generally credible, challenge to Rep. Dennis Cardoza), or his former campaign consultant John Villareal. Apparently they parted ways in unpleasant fashion, as Villareal blasted Berryhill’s campaign as a lost cause… but did it in the form of a somewhat unhinged-sounding, 25-minute long rant posted to YouTube.

OH-17: Jim Traficant may still yet be able to beam himself back into Congress. He just got an extension from Jennifer Brunner, giving him more time to prove that he did collect enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot as an independent. He previously got bounced for the ballot for not having enough valid signatures.

OR-05: Hot on the heels of a too-good-to-be-true internal from Scott Bruun giving him a small lead a few days ago, Rep. Kurt Schrader hauled out his own internal from Lake Research giving him a pretty comfortable lead: 46-35. The poll’s from late July, though, so one wonders if there’s a more recent one that he’s not sharing.

PA-08: The ubiquitous POS is out with an internal poll on behalf of ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, giving him a 7-point lead (48-41) over Democratic sophomore Rep. Patrick Murphy. Murphy hasn’t been one of the Dems’ top worries in Pennsylvania, but as we’ve seen in recent weeks, the Dem brand in Pennsylvania seems to be waning particularly quickly.

VA-05: Tom Perriello, in an interesting bit of distancing from national Dems that’s ambiguous enough that it works from both right and left, called for the replacement of Treasury Sec. Timothy Geithner, at a local town hall. He didn’t say who his preferred replacement would be (Robert Reich, anyone?).

Ads: Lead-off ad of the day is from Alan Grayson in FL-08; the Hotline actually says it makes Grayson look “angelic” and they refer to it as the most positive ad they’ve seen so far from anyone. That Grayson… always zigging when everyone else is zagging. Other Dems out with their first TV ads for themselves today include Kathy Dahlkemper in PA-03, Julie Lassa in WI-07, and Tom Hayhurst in IN-03.

All the GOP ads today are anti-Dem ads being run by third party groups: America’s Future Fund running against Bruce Braley in IA-01, the Heritage Foundation’s lobbying arm against Mike McIntyre in NC-07, and Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity running against Gabrielle Giffords in AZ-08 and a weird two-fer (aimed at the Phoenix market, I guess) attacking both Anne Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell in AZ-01 and AZ-05. NWOTSOTB, on any of the ads.

Rasmussen:

CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 40%, Meg Whitman (R) 48%

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 40%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

UT-Gov: Peter Corroon (D) 29%, Gary Herbert (R-inc) 60%

UT-Sen: Sam Granato (D) 29%, Mike Lee (R) 54%

68 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 8/26 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. For those who don’t know, Richie Farmer is a Kentucky high school basketball legend, who also had his jersey retired by UK as part of the so-called “unforgetables” group that revived Wildcat basketball following probation and lost that memorable multi-overtime game to Duke on Christian Laettner’s last second shot.

    Being a basketball legend in Kentucky is probably a lot more politically valuable than being a proven public servant with a long record of accomplishment!

  2. Those Pennsylvania polls suggest that getting “unlikely voters” to the polls on Election Day may be particularly important in that state.

  3. Well, how is McCollum’s relationship with Sink?  And for that matter, Crist?  Is there any chance McCollum has the independent streak to endorse a Dem like Sink?

    (btw, I only asked abotu Crist because Crist seemed pretty moderate, I know he’s in the Senate race).

  4. It’s definitely a good, resonating, positive message, but any ad that features 10 seconds of chanting children kind of creeps me out.

    I’m saying, it’s a thin line between “Alan Grayson saved our school!” and the climax of a “Twilight Zone” episode…

  5. is an idiot. He’s letting McMahon wage a scorched Earth campaign against him and he isn’t attacking her like a rabid dog on her record at WWE. I mean the woman’s practically handing you an mountain of ammo to use against her and you won’t use it?! Reid dispatch your campaign manager for a trip East to knock some sense into him.

  6. Hadn’t realized that Steven Costantino was endorsed by the state party for mayor of Providence. Aside from that race, AG, and governor (left blank), I think I went with the state party’s selections on every race.

    given how much time I spend on here reading about other people voting, sometimes I forget I get to do it myself.

  7. news for Carnahan?

    KY3/Missouri State University polled the US Senate race, and the MO-8, MO-4 races.

    Word of warning, I couldn’t find a MoE for the US Senate poll and the MoE for the races in MO-8/4 seem a little high. (I rounded off the numbers since they didn’t want to do it themselves.)

    http://www.ky3.com/news/local/

    US Senate

    Roy Blunt (R): 49%

    Robin Carnhan (D): 48%

    MO-4

    Ike Skelton (D): 47%

    Vicky Hartzler (R): 35%

    MoE: +/- 7.2%

    MO-8

    Jo Ann Emerson (R): 64%

    Tom Sowers (D): 17%

    MoE: +/- 7.5%

  8. Okay, more than one actually.  First, do they do exit polls for primaries and runoffs or just general elections?  Second, is there some database or something of exit polls?

  9. http://keloland.com/NewsDetail

    Nearly 100 miles per hour; that’s how fast Republican U.S. House candidate Kristi Noem was driving when she was picked up earlier this year for speeding. But that’s not Noem’s only ticket.

    KELOLAND News checked the records for all five candidates for U.S. House and Governor; Noem has the longest list of violations, including 20 speeding tickets, three stop sign violations, two seat belt violations, and no driver’s license. Noem also has six court notices for failure to appear and two arrest warrants.

    An worse driving record sunk a candidate in Louisiana this year: James Perry was the front-runner in a special election for the state leg, until it got out that he had more than 100 traffic tickets in four years.  http://www.nola.com/politics/i

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