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AK-Sen: Murkowski Makes Up a Bit of Ground, McAdams Staying Put (Update: Knowles Not Interested)

by: James L.

Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 6:20 PM EDT


The latest count:

438 of 438 Precincts Reporting
Candidate Votes Percent
Lisa Murkowski 45,359 49.10%
Joe Miller 47,027 50.90%

Seven more precincts have been counted, leaving just two precincts (and a load of absentees) outstanding, and Murkowski has cut the deficit to 1,492 votes from around the 2,000 mark. That gives the Murkowski camp a bit of hope, however faint, that the absentees could be enough to tip this thing back to her.

If Miller ends up winning and Murkowski wants to explore her third-party options, well, it seems that it would have to be Libertarian or bust:

Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai told me it's too late for Murkowski to file to have her name appear on the ballot as an independent, so that would need to be a write-in effort. There is a Libertarian candidate in the race, Frederick Haase, who could choose to step down. The Libertarian Party could then select a replacement for him on the ballot.

There is no other third party candidate in the U.S. Senate race, so Libertarian would be the only option for Murkowski to join a new party for a run.

And as for Democratic nominee (and Sitka mayor) Scott McAdams, he announced today on a conference call organized by the Alaska Democratic Party that he will not be stepping aside for another candidate.

UPDATE: 100% is now in, and Miller netted a couple hundred extra votes. Also, we can put the Tony Knowles rumors to bed:

Knowles, however, told POLITICO Wednesday that he's not interested in running for Senate again.

"I do not want to run for the office of Senate again," said Knowles, who lost to Murkowski by a slim margin in her first bid for a full term in 2004. She had been appointed to the seat in 2002 by her father, then-GOP Gov. Frank Murkowski, a move that generated a considerable amount of controversy at the time.

"All of the deadlines are passed. That was a decision that had to be made by the 1st of June," Knowles said. "But am I interested in running? No."
James L. :: AK-Sen: Murkowski Makes Up a Bit of Ground, McAdams Staying Put (Update: Knowles Not Interested)
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AK-Sen: Murkowski Makes Up a Bit of Ground, McAdams Staying Put (Update: Knowles Not Interested) | 74 comments
I don't get
why anyone would want McAdams to step aside. Sitka is a pretty decently-sized city for the state; I've been to Alaska before and one of my best friends is from Alaska. It's probably a lot more famous and prominent than Wasilla was before 2008.

I feel pretty good about this, actually. Begich, a mayor of an Alaskan city, beat someone with intimate and sentimental ties to Alaska, something that's very important there. Begich beat someone with a whole lot of money. Stevens brought home, famously, a lot of dough which a lot of people in Alaska were the beneficiaries of. Hard to vote against that. Still, Begich won. Stevens also was way more in line with the political views of Alaskans than Begich.

Ok, I know the caveats: 2008 was a great year for Dems. Stevens was indicted. Begich raised a lot more money than McAdams. Anchorage is a huge compared to Sitka.

Still, McAdams has a real shot; at the very least the NRSC might have to spend some money. Miller's gonna fundraise, don't get me wrong. A teabagger, he also has Yale Law School connections, I would think. I just don't think it's a GOP slam dunk: far from it.

Last point: Miller won't bring home the dough. If McAdams becomes the pork candidate, it significantly helps him. Won't help him with the teabag crowd, but that's a small minority--at least, in the general--and he wouldn't win it anyway.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

Former Gov Knowles
Would be a much stronger candidate and would put this race seriously into play. They want to replace McAdams with him.  
[ Parent ]
Whoever they is, they won't succeed
McAdams is the nominee. I'm not really sure Knowles would be that much stronger - he's a two time loser.  
[ Parent ]
Rumors only
Also, Knowles is a two-time loser who only won the governorship in the first place due to vote-splitting. I'm not convinced he's the best option. People seem to go to him because he's one of the only Alaska Dems they've ever heard of.
[ Parent ]
Plus, in his landslide re-election...
there was again the vote-splitting between two Republicans after a scandal affecting the primary winner.  And though it was a "landslide" victory, Knowles did only manage to get 51.27% of the vote in 1998.  So he never had widespread popular support in the state.
[ Parent ]
Remember
he won the primary by a substantial margin! He's no Some Dude.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
I think that would not be a good idea
McAdams might be unknown, but he has credentials and the Democrats would be better served not trying to replace him. A new face is always a good thing and even if McAdams doesn't win, he can run a good enough campaign to build a foundation for future races.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
He raised less than $10K
Even the guy running against Crapo in Idaho has done more than 4x that, and Idaho doesn't have a Dem infrastructure like Alaska does.
[ Parent ]
As I said in a comment in a newer thread
He might not have been trying at all.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Comments
Some of the comments in the previous thread about McAdams and replacing him reminds of the smoke filled rooms and backroom deals, no one else stepped up he was the victor move on.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

I haven't counted
But my feeling was most were against him being replaced.
[ Parent ]
As a point of fact, I can't ever remember a candidate
Who agreed to be replaced just because their opponent was upset by someone not considered as strong. I mean, when you think about it, does that make any sense?

That was a very strange thread (in fairness, probably started by a wierd tweet that suggested Alaska Dems were looking at Tony Knowles as a replacement for McAdams)

[ Parent ]
Numbers weren't the point of my statement, but thanks


Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

[ Parent ]
Numbers
They were the point of my statement. Indeed, the point of most, if not all of my statements at SSP.
[ Parent ]
It seems to be the de rigeur topic of conversation whenever something unexpected arises
It's kind of annoying, really. Why not just do away with primaries if the parties are going to switch out candidates every time they have some bad luck with a race?
[ Parent ]
It's one thing where a candidate is enveloped by scandal
But otherwise, it never happens where a candidate is replaced by another one voluntarily. Heck, we can't even get rid of the South Carolina dude.

(and some people on one of the threads were seriously suggesting McAdams be replaced with...Murkowski????? I mean, she's not a progressive, or even a moderate, people)  

[ Parent ]
Good for McAdams.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
I always
laugh when I read a comment like this:

I knew God was on our side thats why he made the sun shine yesterday and thats when I knew Joe would do good. He hasn't won yet but all in all it was a good day.

Read more: http://www.adn.com/2010/08/25/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Ha!
"Heaven's ways are constant. It does not prevail because of a sage like Yao; it does not cease to prevail because of tyrant like Chieh."
                        -Hsün Tzu (circa 250 BC)

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Ted Stevens
Was in an ad for Murkowski right before he died: http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...
The campaign held the ad.  
RIP Ted Stevens
Always a cool guy to his state.

I've been wondering, are we seeing a spate of bacon-masters passing away lately?  I mean, last year it was celebrities, is it pork-barrelers this year?  Between Byrd, Murtha, and Stevens...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Of the two remaining precincts
One is in HD #16 and will add about 450-500 votes, and one is in the semi-bush HD #6 and will add 40-50 more votes.  I would guess that HD 6 is more moderate/liberal, and that HD 16 is more conservative.

I would guess that Miller gains 100-150 more votes before the absentees are counted.

So as I understand it
After all the precincts have been counted, there are 16000 absentee ballots still left to be counted. How much of those 16000 does Murkowski have to win in order to turn the result back in her favor?
not necessarily...
16,000 were requested but for whatever reason not all of them will make it back and be counted.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
According to Karl Rove
56% of absentee and military.  
[ Parent ]
Wonder
how many of those were cast before the Tea Party Express went on full blast calling Murkowski a RINO for voting with the Democrats over 300 times....over 8 years.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Just wondering about that
were these absentee ballots cast before or after the Palin endorsement? And is their validity to the claim that since most of the absentees are either military or, as the media says, from the 'bush' who rely on government pork and would therefore be more inclined to vote for Murkowski?
[ Parent ]
I doubt they let people cast
absentee ballots for an August election before June...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
BINGO!
This isnt over yet, but Murkowski certainly has a hole to dig herself out of.
[ Parent ]
begich barely won
against a convicted felon.  unless murkowski goes third party, splitting the right, i don't see how any dem could win.  Knowles wins only came due to a split in the republican party and the right.  in fact, no dem (except maybe an AG or something i don't feel like looking up) has won a majority of the vote since knowles was re-elected against 2 republicans.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Stevens was convicted, but he was also
an Alaskan political titan; a supermajority of the electorate would have cast their ballots for him in every Senate election in living memory; he flooded the state with pork.  That's a massive base of loyalty.

Joe Miller is Some Dude.  He's got none of what Stevens spent decades building up.

[ Parent ]
True, but...
This is also an ugly year to be running as a Democrat in Alaska. I've come to agree with Tuttle, unfortunately. Even Miller's hatred of Alaska's life blood of pork probably won't save the Democrat.

If Murkowski does run, however, all bets are off.  

[ Parent ]
though is this year any worse than 2008 in ALASKA
it seems that palin probably brought a lot more voters to the polls and shifted a possible (though unlikely) swing state back into solid republican territory.  is it possible that the alaska pro-palin surge of 08 brought the same type of voters that will go to the polls in 2010 making the climates somewhat more equal?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Im glad Sarah Palin was picked as a VP nominee
(sheer entertainment value and another woman up there in politics, even if it's.... her....) but one thing that will forever get to me is that Obama was polling incredibly well in Alaska.  What a trophy to add to IN, NC, and VA.
[ Parent ]
Oh, I don't think a Dem victory here is at all likely
(unless Murkowski goes Libertarian), but I don't think Miller is remotely invincible; in a better year, we could win this.
[ Parent ]
Stevens
Ted stevens is like the Robert Byrd of Alaska. Long serving senators with tons of things named after them in their state. For ex. Ted Stevens international airport, the biggest airport in Alaska
[ Parent ]
I have a feeling that the conviction itself
was not well received in Alaska, in an "outsiders meddling with our stuff" way.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Democrat mayor
Of the three biggest cities in alaska only one has a democratic mayor. He is from the state captial (don't remember the name). Not only is he the mayor but a former ag of Alaska. He could be a strong candidate.
[ Parent ]
The capital of Alaska is Juneau
and I have heard that it is one of the few Democratic strongholds in the state.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Fairbanks
The second biggest city is actually pretty red
[ Parent ]
Isn't Fairbanks
a college town? though, I did hear that it basically broke even in the 2008 Senate election. Being from the Northeast, about as far from Alaska as you can get, all I know is that Juneau is blue and the MatSu region (where Palin is from) is supposedly deep, deep red.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Libertarian
Murkowski is not a libertarian, so would the Libertarian Party really want her to run on their line, even if their candidate volunteered to withdraw?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
The prospect of having an actual senator
might be enticing, though if you're a member of the Libertarian Party (or any third party), you probably don't care too much about winning.
[ Parent ]
She could be the Libertarians'
only Senator in history from now until January.
[ Parent ]
I don't think Dems should get too excited here
I was fairly excited at first, but while Miller may be a Tea Party candidate, he's no Sharron Angle. He's actually very well-credentialed: West Point, Yale Law, etc. He's clearly intelligent and comes across as very well-spoken.

While I certainly would love if the Dems could unexpectedly poach another seat from Alaska, I really doubt they'll be able to. It's going to be hard to characterize Miller as a complete nutjob.

In some ways, the best comparison is to Ken Buck in Colorado. But that's a better shot, because we have a well-funded incumbent, a disastrous situation for the GOP in the governor's race (which may boost Dems), and a state that's overall more favorable to Democrats. Plus, Buck has made a lot of gaffes.

^^^^This, unless Murkowski finds a way to run a third-party candidacy

[ Parent ]
Even if she does
I think she remains a favorite. She'd be like Crist, only she'd get more Reps, and is in  a more Rep state. Dems may vote for her to keep Miller out.  
[ Parent ]
I
said the same thing earlier. Only thing is that dems have always liked Crist. That is not the case for Murkowski.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I love that this seat is even in question
I hope Murkowski hates Miller/Palin enough to seek the Libertarian line on the ballot.

Come on, Senator - spend some GOP money and let us watch the Alaska circus. At a minimum, you could deny Miller a win in November.

[ Parent ]
I guess
the way incumbents should handle insurgent challenges is to vaporize them like McCain did to Hayworth before they could gain traction.

Also this was one huge fraking red flag the Murkowski campaign should of seen:

In the last week of the campaign, Murkowski supporter and GOP activist Kim Skipper recalled seeing the same thing every time she turned on the television: five negative ads against Murkowski from Miller's campaign, five negative ads against Murkowski from the Tea Party Express and one positive ad about Murkowski from the senator's campaign.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Forgot link
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

(Not about to get busted for plagiarism like Scott McInnis did ;)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Did you make $300,000 for that post?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well
I wired the money to my secret Swiss Bank account this morning maybe, not telling anyone.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Only problem
As a private citizen all his life, its much harder to find something to attack Miller on without a business record like Scott or Green.  
[ Parent ]
Last to presincts are in
Miller added 407 votes, Murkowski added 231.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


And my spelling in that subject was embarrassingly bad


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I can tell
Your back in New Orleans!  
[ Parent ]
Glass
houses GOPVOTER, glass freaken houses.
[ Parent ]
Freaken
Or freakin'?

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Glass
houses trhawk, glass houses.
[ Parent ]
Fraking, please.


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Fscking?
Fusking?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I'm from New Orleans
I can throw all the stones I want!  
[ Parent ]
I almost misspelled embarrassingly in my correction even!
Worst.  Fix.  Ever.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Ok so what the hell
is the deal with the "ADL" designation on the Alaska SOS web-site. Looks like there is one primary including AI, Libertarian, Democratic candidates, some-f'-ing how. WTF?
Also, WTF?
Yeah, there's a blanket primary ballot that covers those three parties.
It's probably done to save money, since there are rarely going to be contested primaries for the minor parties.
[ Parent ]
September 8th
http://politicalwire.com/archi...
Ballots will be accepted until then. This could be awhile  
Murkowski should have pulled a McCain
and buried Miller in negative ads. As of 8/4, she had $1,868,429 cash on hand and no debt vs Miller's $84,204 cash on hand with $107,781 in debt. All that money won't help her with GOP voters now - unless she goes Libertarian in November.

Of course, McAdams had just $4,553 as of 6/30. He is gonna need to kick it up a notch.

FEC link
FEC fundraising numbers are here:

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

[ Parent ]
Internal Error #1
(i.e. the site is broken)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
OpenSecrets link
http://www.opensecrets.org/rac...

Yeah, more like up three notches at least.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Cant see Libertarians taking Murkowski
Miller is more of a Libertarian than Murkowski is. He's from the small government Tea Party wing while she is from the big government pork barrel establishment wing.

Cant see an ideological party like the Libertarians backing Murkowski under any circumstances.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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They might on the basis of social issues
Murkowski is pro-choice and her opposition to a parental notification measure that was also on the ballot is part of why she lost.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
She is also against legalization of marijuana...
Which the Libertarians support and her father was the one who criminalized it in Alaska until Sarah Palin (of all people) help pass a law to decriminalize it again there.  

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
AK-Sen: Murkowski Makes Up a Bit of Ground, McAdams Staying Put (Update: Knowles Not Interested) | 74 comments

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