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SSP Daily Digest: 8/25 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 4:34 PM EDT


• AK-Sen: I've got plenty of hearsay and conjecture. Those are kinds of evidence. (Ah, Lionel Hutz, always good for a quote.) Anyway, there's lots of those kinds of evidence burning up the Twittersphere lately: maybe most significantly, the rumor that Alaska Dems are looking into getting Scott McAdams to stand down and inserting ex-Gov. Tony Knowles (the 2004 loser against Murkowski) to run in his place. Under state law, McAdams would have until 48 days before election day to drop out, but the wisdom of such a move seem uncertain, as McAdams is at least a fresh face and Knowles has two-time-loser taint. Also out there: that Lisa Murkowski is looking into some sort of independent run, which would probably have to take write-in form (although Taniel points out major practical problems with that). One other very weird alternative mentioned for Murkowski: commandeering the secessionist Alaska Independence Party. UPDATE: The Alaska state Dem party is about to hold a conference call with McAdams in which he lays out a path to victory, which certainly suggests that they aren't abandoning him.

• NV-Sen: Is Sharron Angle following Michele Bachmann down that dark and winding path to... well, she's already in Crazy Town, so whatever's around the next bend beyond that. In an interview with a right-wing talk show host Bill Manders last year, Angle agreed with Manders that there were "domestic enemies" "in the walls of the Senate and the Congress."

• WI-Sen: Here's one more installment in the ongoing story of teabaggers adopting the "government money for me, not for thee" line of argumentation (a la Clint Didier and Stephen Fincher's long history of happily accepting farm subsidies), disregarding the jaw-dropping hypocrisy that goes with it. It's been revealed that Ron Johnson's company, Paccur, got a $2.5 million government loan to pay for a 40,000 square foot expansion to its facilities. The revelation comes about a week after he said in an interview: "I have never lobbied for some special treatment or for a government payment... When you subsidize things...it doesn't work through the free market system very well."

• MD-Gov: Here's a poll showing better-than-usual results for incumbent Dem governor Martin O'Malley, locked in a rematch battle with ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich. The OpinionWorks poll, on behalf of a non-profit called Center Maryland, gives O'Malley a 47-41 lead over Ehrlich, and also gives O'Malley a respectable 49/39 approval.

• MI-Gov: Tough nerd and GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder picked a running mate: state Rep. Brian Calley, a 33-year-old who helps Snyder fill his political-inexperience and social-conservative gaps. One wrinkle: Calley was already the GOP nominee for a state Senate seat, so it's unclear how filling that vacancy will now play out. Dem nominee Virg Bernero will also need to pick a running mate ahead of this weekend's nominating convention.

• NY-St. Sen.: Campaign ads in local newspapers in state Senate races are usually a little too down in the weeds for even SSP, but take a look at this amazingly thorough anti-Greg Ball demolition derby run by a group called "Republicans for Truth" as we approach the GOP primary in open SD-40 in New York. Remember, Ball is the wacko we could have been running against in NY-19 if Nan Hayworth hadn't priced him out.

• Ads: We're awash in new ads today (as I'm sure we will be every day until November), with the biggest-ticket one seeming to be a new anti-Joe Sestak ad in PA-Sen from Rove front-group American Crossroads. The even more mysterious Americans for Job Security are also wading into MO-Sen, launching an anti-Robin Carnahan radio ad. TV spots are also up in various House races: in FL-22 for Allen West, in KY-06 for Andy Barr, in TX-17 for Bill Flores, and in AZ-08 for Gabby Giffords. NWOTSOTB, in all cases.

• Blogosphere: Congratulations to friend-of-the-site Nate Silver, whose little blog called 538.com has completed its ascendancy, getting relaunched today as part of the New York Times' online operations.

• History: New Orleans has a particularly fascinating and byzantine political history; with the LA-02 primary fast approaching, here's an interesting long article on the rise (and potential decline) of African-American political power in the Big Easy.

• Rasmussen:
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%
• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 56%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 47%, David Westlake (R) 40%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/25 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 8/25 (Afternoon Edition) | 145 comments
LA-SEN
Vitter 51% (R)
Melancon 41% (D)

Taylor 39% (R)
Melancon 40% (D)

53/41 approval for Vitter
But Louisiana does not like him as a human being

Tom Jensen:

What makes that all the more interesting is that Louisiana voters do have a pretty dim view of Vitter as a human being. 44% think Vitter has been a poor model of Christian living to only 21% who think he's been a good model and by a 32-22 margin they say Melancon has been a better exemplar of Christian values. But there's a disconnect between how voters feel about the candidates personally and how they're planning to vote. For instance Vitter's getting 30% from people who think he's been a poor model- party is trumping values.

Obama's approval is 35/61

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

What
has Mary Landrieu been doing the last two years that makes her approval rating -12?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
I know this one.
   Identifying with the national Democratic party.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Plus
she's never been that well liked in Louisiana. If she runs in 2014 she's gonna lose big, like Blanche Lincoln is this year. Seeing that Landrieu can't even crack single digits in a year like 2008 has to embolden some ambitious GOP congressman in the state. Katrina really sped up the decline of the Louisiana Democratic Party since it forced many black voters out of the state, and how the administration handled the BP thing didn't help either.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I meant
"...can't even crack double digits in a year like..."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
And how
She handled the spill. She has almost been invisible.  
[ Parent ]
Alaska law.
The legality is clear: if McAdams voluntarily withdraws, he can be replaced until 48 days pre-primary.
Thing
is why should he drop out. Personally if someone went up to me and said, "thanks for your hard work and dedication but it is clear that this race would be easier if you dropped out" I would probably be pissed. He has not done anything wrong. It is undemocratic to try and force him off if he does not want to. I think he will be our nominee.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I couldn't agree more n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
WHAT hard work?
He filed his campaign organizing papers in June. This June.  He has raised all of $9,175 since then while failing to file his FEC pre-primary report despite the FEC reminding him to do so.

I've raised more than $9,175 for candidates in a single day on DailyKos.  He's had months.

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen
What are the chances of our "some dude" beating their "some dude? probably slim

anybody seen any polling?

We all
know what the polling showed in the Senate primary.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I'm really hoping Lisa becomes a spoiler
And you know what, I think she would just be okay with that, its kinda a way of giving Sarah Palin the finger as she does down in flames.

I would love to see a Senator McAdams

And our dude isn't a some dude, he is the sitting Mayor of Sitka, AK.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I like this scenario
Our guy gets 40% and Murkowski and Miller split the scraps.
[ Parent ]
As the inventor of the term Some Dude
I can confirm that Scott McAdams does not qualify.

Although beltway writers certainly consider him to be a Some Dude, though these are the same people who write about Alvin Greene all day.

[ Parent ]
Do you think the dems might run Murkowski?
This is probably a bridge too far for them, since she has been fairly conservative and only broke ranks on one or two votes.

A top two primary would have been interesting here.  We might have seen a Miller v. Murkowski general.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

Lionel Hutz refernce FTW


Male, 23, DC-At Large
AIP
There is precedent for the AIP giving their blessing to a rogue Republican. (Gov. Wally Hickel won a second term under their line -- sadly secession did not ensue.) OTOH, isn't the AIP pretty tea-flavored these days?

27, Democratic, IL-01
Didn't
Palin's husband have ties to them?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Indeed!

[ Parent ]
KS-HR-91
This is pretty far down in the weeds, perhaps even for SSP, but this is one of those things where if I don't get it off my chest, I will explode...so, apologies in advance if it's too off-topic.

Okay, so what happens went a West Point graduate and decorated officer (Dan Manning) gets kicked out of the Army because of Don't Ask, Don't Tell and decides to run for office against a far-right bigot (Brenda Landwehr) for a seat in the Kansas House of Representatives? The incumbent bigot in question stirs up homophobia among the locals (reportedly even dropping some f-bombs) and the openly-gay candidate gets a poorly-spelled death threat attached to the front door of his home.

http://www.towleroad.com/2010/...

He's also getting a $20 donation from me today, and more when I get my next paycheck. Frankly, I think the sweetest revenge would be having Manning break Sean Tevis' fundraising record and kick ole Brenda's bigoted ass out da Lege. He could do it, too--Landwehr is a longtime incumbent, hasn't been seriously challenged in awhile and is way, way too conservative for her moderate district that's getting bluer, fast. Want to help? KS HR races are cheap--successful challengers rarely need more than $20k or so. Donate: http://www.manningforkansas.com/

Disclosure: I'm not affiliated with the campaign, but I am a gay Kansan and I am sick of this crap. So go choke on some pink dollars, Brenda.... oh and btw, that's a lovely lady mullet you're rockin'.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

She looks like a Stabenow clone
That note is disturbing.  It is also disturbing how Mullet Lady looks like a hillbilly version of Debbie Stabenow.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
If McAdams withdrew, why not a new face instead of Knowles?
Isn't there a D State Senator that is good on the stump and can get the 40-45% needed in a 3 way race?

If not, what about Levi Johnston?  If Murkowski running as a spoiler elected Levi, wouldn't she have the last laugh on Sarah? The Wassila race isn't until next year anyway (in case he loses).    

Give him a chance!
  He's mayor of a medium-sized (for Alaska) town.  Is that really such a bad profile for a candidate?!  

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I'd be willing to give him a chance
but he needs to switch his fundraising machine out of Fail mode.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well, of course.
   Who the hell would give money to a Democrat running against Murkowksi?  Only a fool.  Now the situation has changed, and it will be easier to raise money.  Maybe he'll be a total fuck-up.  But he did actually run in the primary when no else did (well, no one more electable anyway).  That deserves at least our temporary support.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
He raised less than $10K
Tom Sullivan, who's running against Crapo in Idaho, has raised over four times that -- and Alaska has much more of a Dem establishment than Idaho does.  

Roxanne Conlin has raised over $800K to run against Grassley in Iowa, and she can't have much more of a chance than McAdams did.

[ Parent ]
I disagree
On the face of it, Murkowski seemed much less likely to lose to a Democrat than Grassley. Iowa is much more Democratic than Alaska, and Grassley's opposition to health care was at least somewhat controversial. I may be splitting hairs here, knowing that Conlin has always been a long shot, but I do think there are differences.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
How about Hollis French?
How about Hollis French, who just barely lost the primary for governor (narrowly) to Ethan Berkowitz.  
[ Parent ]
Well
he has not done anything wrong so personally I do not think he should be kicked off unless he honestly wants to help the party. At least offer him a job. Also no one else besides Tony Knowles would make this more competitive then he does. We do not have a whole lot of high profile dems. The only one I can think of is the former LG who did mildly good in 2002. In all reality McAdams could potentially be better than Knowles. People may be sick of Knowles at this point and a fresh face may do better. Then again all the dem has to do in a three way race is clear 40% of the vote and I think Knowles could do that fairly easily. With McAdams I wonder if this will not turn into FL Senate where Murkowski gets a lot of dem support. I doubt it because she is not that liked among dems as Crist but then again it could happen. This is all a moot point as I doubt Murkowski goes through with this. I am hoping she does though!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I dunno
Murkowski is pissed, and Joe Miller may actually be too right wing for Alaska (I can't believe I'm writing this)  
[ Parent ]
And I actually agree with you.
If Miller wants to wean Alaska off of essential federal dollars, then he is already out of touch with Alaskans on a very key issue and McAdams' stock goes up significantly. I like McAdams' chances, after writing him off just a few hours ago. Two Dem senators from Alaska in just a few years...wow. Localizing issues is the key this year, and is much more interesting than just reflexively saying GOP candidates will do better especially in GOP states because it's a GOP year.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Meh…
It's by no means in the bag.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Of course not.
But we should not automatically write the seat off.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
No, of course not...
And I don't want to sound too optimistic here. Unlike in Kentucky, the turnout figures are not inspiring (keeping in mind the Dems did have a slightly competitive governors race).

But I do think there may be a shot, probably very dependant on what Murkowski does.  

[ Parent ]
McAdams is a new face
It wouldn't make any sense for McAdams to withdraw for anyone but Knowles or Murkowski (or whoever the mayor of Ancharage is, if s/he is a Dem.)

He's mayor of Alaska's fourth largest city.  That's better than some random state senator.

[ Parent ]
The Mayor is a R


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Ummm...Levi could run in about ten years
   You have to be at least 30 to serve in the Senate. Joe Biden ran at age 29 but turned 30 before actually being sworn in. I am not sure Levi's age but he can't be older than 21 or 22 if not younger.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
20
Levi and Bristol as AK's two senators someday?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
better than Sarah


26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
MI-Gov
Bad choice for a running mate by Rick Snyder.  His entire campaign is about how politicians are the problem.  Apparently he doesn't feel that strongly about the things his campaign is based on.  I'm not sure it will matter.  I just find it humorous that he isn't even governor and is already backing out on things he said while campaigning.

I'll be interested to see who Bernero picks.  None of the candidates mentioned in the media make me excited.      

Disagree
Calley is hardly a career politician. He's been in office for less than 4 years and before that was a businessman (a successful one at that). This pick was pretty much the safe bet: Calley is known as a pretty level-headed conservative who won't say something dumb, knows the issues, and doesn't offend anyone. And at the same time, he picks up some Tea Party and western MI support (Calley was endorsed in his state senate run by the iCaucus and represented the central-western part of the lower peninsula). It's a good pick. Not great, but good. And that's all Snyder has to do to win.
[ Parent ]
Well...
Once you start getting paid to be a politician, you're a career politician.  Also, when you're 33, 4 years is a pretty good chunk of one's career.  I think it would have been a better decision to pick another businessperson who isn't connected to the mess that's been going on in the legislature.  Oh well...I don't want Snyder to win anyway.

   

[ Parent ]
Some interesting developments on AK-SE
It's becoming increasingly probable that Murkowski has lost the Republican nomination. Her only real option would be to convice the current Libertarian candidate on the ballot to drop out. AIP apparently isn't an option, since they didn't even bother to field a candidate in this race.

Also, Joe Miller is actually going to campaign on the idea of getting Alaska off the federal teat, which has never been a winner for anyone campaigning for federal office in Alaska before.

Here's the story:

http://community.adn.com/adn/n...

Where all this is going I have no idea. Murkowski is clearly not happy. I can't even tell you where I'm ranking this seat now - things will have to shake out.

If Miller campaigns on that
I think he will lose the general election. Have Alaska politics changed so radically that they'd support an end to socialism in their state?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I think not.
   I think Alaska is still a radically right-wing socialist state.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I actually think
Miller is going to lose. Federal dollars are a key issue for Alaskans, and if Miller campaigns against the lifeblood of many Alaskans, I think he is going to lose. It may not automatically be in the bag, but we should not by any means write this race off.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Hey, I'm with him on that
let Alaska use their oil money to embiggen their state, not federal largesse.
[ Parent ]
Turnout Gap
Hey there SSP, longtime lurker and first time poster here.

CW seems to be that yesterdays primaries were good for us(democrats), with lucking out getting Rick Scott in Florida as well as Joe Miller beating Murkowski in Alaska. However, the thing that's worrying to me is that Dem turnout in Florida(a state with something like 600k more registered democrats than republicans, as well as a competitive primary on the dem side) and Arizona seemed to be so low compared to the Republicans. So my question is how much is primary turnout   by party connected to the final vote on election day? It seems like it would be an interesting thing to analyze.

The disingenuous
thing about that is that it doesn't take into account the large portion of conservative, Dixiecrats that tend to vote Republican these days.  
[ Parent ]
Teamsters and other unions to back Crist
Not sure if already posted elsewhere but saw this on the ether.

http://thepage.time.com/statem...

If Meek can't read the writing on the wall, maybe someone needs to send him a postcard.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

He's
not going to drop out, especially since the DSCC made it clear their backing him.

"Congratulations to Kendrick Meek on his hard-fought victory tonight. Kendrick was outspent five to one, but tonight proved that a compelling message, an energetic candidate, and the right ideas can beat tough odds. Kendrick ran an aggressive, thoughtful, grassroots campaign, and prevailed over inordinate resources spent against him. The general election begins tomorrow and unlike both of his opponents, Kendrick Meek is focused on creating jobs, growing the economy, and fighting for Florida's middle class. We saw in the closing weeks of this primary that as Floridians get to know Kendrick, they like him and vote for him. I believe we'll see a repeat performance come November."


19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
Boxer up 49-44 with leaners so once again SurveyUSA screwed the pooch in California. But this leads me to ask why there are no leaners in the Oregon, and more importantly, Wisconsin polls? Or have I just missed them?

 

I have no
idea. This is the Oregon question poll: http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

But after Neil Stevens stirred up RedState with Boxer down, I can't wait for him (not) to post about this poll from Rasmussen.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
OR-Sen: FWIW, Wyden has been running ads
essentially saying that "I'm different" from the typical federal politician.

Nothing from Huffman, but Wyden is certainly avoiding the Coakleys.

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
Has been having better numbers for Boxer than PPIC, Field, SUSA and, PPP's June poll. Them and PPP are the only ones showing bigger Boxer leads. SUSA is the only one showing  bigger Fiorina leads.  
[ Parent ]
Sigh
We discussed this at length at the time. All polling except SurveyUSA shows Boxer ahead by between 3 to 9 points. So, we now have you saying in one thread that We Ask America may be accurate when they are the clear outlier in PA because they are "only" 4 points beyond Toomey's next best poll yet here you dismiss the polls out of hand showing the Democrat further ahead. I call foul.  
[ Parent ]
No
When their polls are in line with everybody else. Out of all the polls here, PPP and Ras are the outliers against arguably the best pollster in America (Field). I am saying WAA (can we abbreviate them now?) is not extremely off. I think the race is very close to PPP's poll in PA.  
[ Parent ]
Absolutely not
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

You are being selective IMO.  

[ Parent ]
Sarah Palin, the Murkowski slayer!
Somebody should make a Buffy parody on that!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
This is a wonderful ad by Marco Rubio in my opinion


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Embodies
the idea of the American dream. Good ad by Marco Rubio. I may not respect his policies, but I respect the fact he worked for a better life than his parents did. Something my parents who emigrated from the Philippines constantly tell me to do.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Murkowski
WTF went wrong here? Just yesterday, people were praising how excellent of a campaign she ran. If she loses, the smart thing to do is wait until 2014 when the party has no obvious Sen candidate other than Parnell.  
Alaska...
Land of the Midnight Sun Screwy Election

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
2014 in Alaska
Parnell for Senate, Murkowski for Gov?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: A direct response to Angle from Reid
Jon Ralston linked this and noted the campaign is going all in on this new gem from Angle.  Do you think it's a good idea?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Conway Moneybomb
I am going to pledge $50.00 for Conway. Anyone want to make a pledge as well? Conway can win this thing but he is going to need more money. Even $5.00 helps. Come on, you know you wanna. Let's prove that it is not just Paul weirdoes who know how to wrangle in the cash.

http://www.conwayfightfund.com/

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Any Pledges? nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Shady anti-Richmond group going on TV in LA-02
Relatively small buys of 29, 377.12. Sounds small, buy may be more in such a market, especially for a 5 day period. The ads are paid for by the Louisiana Truth PAC, a group funded by Juan LaFonta supporters. The ads are probably very, very negative, if their website is any indication. I don't like posting it here, because some of the things are probably not true, and, if not, really sick lies, but I know people are gonna ask for it: http://therealcedricrichmond.com/
Found the ads
I'm just gonna link since when I embed, they come out huge:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v... Kinda weak.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
Second one sounds like it was produced in someone's bedroom. Very weak ads, won't do anything to him.  
[ Parent ]
WA-03: Herrera up by double-digits in SUSA poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

54-41 lead over Heck, which tracks pretty closely to the primary totals (54-43).

bothers me mostly because
this is an even district, PVI-wise. gives me the heebie-jeebies about how things will look on a national scale.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
This is a slightly conservative
leaning district, but I think Heck will be fine. For a couple of reasons. One, Washington has been one of the few states where SUSA has consistently been too bullish of Republican performances this cycle, producing outlier outlier, sort of like what they did in Minnesota last time around. So I think the race really is more like 6-8 points for Herrera.

Two, Heck has something like 8 times as much cash on hand as she does and will be able to unload on her later in the cycle.  

[ Parent ]
If I had a nickel for every time someone around here said "I think ____ will be fine"...
Oh, the riches.
[ Parent ]
That is becoming quite a cliche around these parts

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Every Democratic incumbent is doomed. None whatsoever will end up being fine! Sheesh.
[ Parent ]
Jim McDermott and most of the CBC will be okay.

[ Parent ]
God, I hope so.

[ Parent ]
That's semi-unforunate
A lot of the CBC caucus and progressive caucus in particular has been there forever, and its time for some turnover, whether its a Democrat or a Republican. That's why it's nice to see Diane Watson retiring near where I live, and a new equally good Dem in Karen Bass.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Indeed.
If I had a nickel every time I heard "Every Democrat is dooooomed!" I wouldn't have to worry about finding work! Not to mention hearing that statement for the last year has become SO BORING. It seems a lot of people miss the trees for the forest. If the statement "all Democrats are doomed" were true, then we would have lost PA-12.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Not to mention
we're going against a party that loves self-destructing (see CO-Gov, NY-23, countless others).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sigh.
The reality is, encouraging polling for Dem House candidates and incumbents is a rare sight these days -- and I have a feeling that it's only going to get worse this fall.
[ Parent ]
Heck's been hit by negative ads
by some CfG affiliated group, as I noted in an earlier open thread.

Heck hasn't responded. (at least not yet)

His image in the district is being formed now. If he doesn't respond with at least bio spots soon, this district will be lost.

[ Parent ]
I think I've finally decided
who I'm voting for. I agonized over the AG race because I like all the candidates, but I think I'm finally decided on Joe Fernandez. His fundraising is the best of all the candidates and I'm voting with an eye to padding the Dem bench in RI (not like it's lacking, but still), so that's important. Doesn't hurt that he's Filipino and would add some diversity, or that he's from Providence.

My other picks are Cicilline for RI-01, Mollis for SoS, Raimondo for treasurer (unopposed), Roberts for LG, and Taveras for mayor of Providence. I think I'll walk over to city hall and vote tomorrow (voting early since I'm going to be out of the country for a while starting next week).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Former
RNC Chairman and Bush manager comes out.

http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Good for him that
he came out this way. As Ted Haggard, Roy Ashburn, and Larry Craig can tell you, coming straight out of the closet is probably better than having an antigay record and then being outed in an embarrassing way.

OTOH I fear that this will lead to more ridiculous accusations from gay Republicans that the Republican Party is more pro-gay rights than the Democratic Party because Dick Cheney and Laura Bush support gay marriage while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton oppose it.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
FYI
He had a VERY anti gay record before now. Also Dick Cheney has never publicly came out in favor of gay marriage. His wife has but not him. Laura Bush? I have never heard that, link me.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Also
he denied he was gay several times and Bill Maher even got in trouble for calling him so.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
really?
the article makes it sound otherwise.

Cheney: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Laura Bush: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Well sort of....
The question of whether or not there ought to be a federal statute to protect this, I don't support. I do believe that the historically the way marriage has been regulated is at the state level. It has always been a state issue and I think that is the way it ought to be handled, on a state-by-state basis


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
What he's saying is
he supports gay marriage but he thinks states should pass their own laws for it rather than having one federal law saying people can marry or not. So for example if Cheney lived in CA he would have opposed Prop 8.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Meh…
I know what he means but what I am saying is that just claiming it is an issue for states to decide seems rather blah even if he personally supports it. Just my view though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Meh...
I do not care for the stance, but it is getting us somewhere on the issue.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Ken Mehlman's orientation
isn't really SSP discussion material, guys.
[ Parent ]
Really disappointed
That you participated in this glaring derail. You know better - and your second paragraph doesn't save you. Please don't do this again.
[ Parent ]
Sorry.


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Just to warn you guys
Ken Mehlman is really far off-topic for SSP. I'm disappointed to see so many people participate in this derail.
[ Parent ]
You're getting a one-week time-out
This was unbelievably blatant. I don't need to tell you that SSP is not your personal playground to post random links about whatever you like. There's really no possible universe in which any longtime community member here could think that this link was even remotely appropriate for this site.
[ Parent ]
What happened to the Florida diary? nm
nm

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Rick Scott found out about us! / jk
Photobucket

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I deleted it
to look into a legitimate but very dickish complaint by a campaign that I used inaccurate fundraising data.  I have it back up corrected now.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Once considered safe Democrats are now vulnerable
Betty Sutton in particular is signaled out in this article; I'm inclined to believe it. Way back in February, Sutton was down by 5. Also mentioned are Jim Marshall of Georgia, Allen Boyd of Florida, and Leonard Boswell of Iowa.
A Democratic pollster working on several of the key races said "the reality is that [the House majority] is probably gone." His data shows the Democrats' problems are only getting worse. "It's spreading."

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

I'm not surprised
Personally, I think we'll lose 60+ seats in the house. I'm a pessimist, though.
[ Parent ]
Hmm
I wonder how Cardoza and Costa are doing in the Central Valley. From what I can tell, their more vulnerable than what we've been told. Also Fiorina and Whitman are probably going to sweep the valley this year. And Cardoza and Costa will have to deal with the GOTV machine Whitman has to be building with her millions.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Haven't seen any polling for them
RCP which leans right has Costa at Likely, and Cardoza at Lean. The only CA house incumbent I'm worried about is McNerney in CA-11.
[ Parent ]
They
are extremely vulnerable. I drove through there, and there are signs for the Republicans and anti-Democratic Congress. In particular, people don't like Cardoza.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Those are right-wing whining signs the farmers there put up along the highway.
Their ubiquitous out there and are pretty stupid.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Cardoza's
Opponent has self funded 710k, that could be worrisome. The fact Fiorina will probably have huge margins here probably isn't helping. I still think they win, it will just be closer than anyone thought.  
[ Parent ]
I'm
more worried about that GOTV machine Whitman must be building up. She has the money. Example: She opened up an office in East LA. That's right! East LA! Where the last GOP statewide candidate opened an office there 50 years ago...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Brown has plenty of money for GOTV.
He's going to let Whitman continue to let her TV ads make people annoyed with her while he sets up a grassroots operation.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The problem is Whitman is not likeable.
She is making people annoyed to death of her.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
40-60 seats
I am guessing 40 to 60 at the moment.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Ryan
I have to issue this challenge since people just throw out certain numbers of seats all the time and I pick on you since you're a member of the red team.  When you say you have the republicans winning 40-60, do you actually have 40 to 60 seats in particular that you envision falling on election night?  I mean, to get to 60, you're talking about districts like WI-7, TN-4, CA-11, MI-9, PA-4, CT-5, etc, districts in that class falling, because inevitably there will be a few that the republicans thought they had in the bag that will get away.  

So I'm intersted to hear your perspective on this.  Knowing by the way you post, I'm sure you have Team Red picking up a bunch in NY, PA, and OH, but I'm interested to hear about the rest of the map.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
I think
When you look at the overall landscape, it seems like it would be 40-50 seats. When you look at individual races however, I think its around 30-35 seats. So, 30-35 seats.  
[ Parent ]
That's about what I think for this year.
No one should miss the trees for the forest. Looking at each individual race is more interesting anyway, to see who is most in touch with their state's/district's needs rather than just saying over and over "Republican landslide everywhere!" "Democrats everywhere are doomed!"

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
My numbers gradualy
increase: not so long ago it was 25-30 House, 5 - Senate and 5 - Governors. Now it's about 35 House, 6-7 - Senate and 6-7 - Governors. It's quite possible that the "real wave" can materialize and produce Ryan's numbers in House and 8-10 in Senate, but it still requires a "perfect storm" and, thus, is second in probability to above mentioned numbers on my charts. But, i repeat, it's quite possible because of at least 3 reasons

1. Severe disappointment on part of former Obama's coalition (Indies, first of all, but some Democrats too) with the current results of Obama's "change". It may be all and well in long term, but as a short-term politics is considered (and this year eelection surely falls under that category) - a lot of people are disappointed and even angry. Yes, economy is in bad state and all this, but now, probably, more people consider Obama responsible for that bad state then Bush. According to number of polls people are split about whether stimulus program is good or bad, most - oppose a HCR reform as it was enacted, and so on...

2. Much better energized Republican electorate, which has nothing more (almost) to lose and, as a result - much better recruitment of candidates. In that respect Republican recruitment of 2010 is a head above those of 2006 and 2008 despite craziness of some Sharon Angle-type candidates

3. The Democratic electorate is split between progressives (especially - part of Netroots) , who expected a rather solid "left-wing president" with corresponding program,and  "centrists" (both official members of party and majority of Independents, who voted for Obama and lot of other Democratic candidates in part because there are very few Republican candidates they can vote for).

So i belong to "moderate pessimists" on this subject))

[ Parent ]
40 to 60
I am actually working on my list for the moment.  I have had a list for awhile, but I keep tweaking it.  Hopefully I will have it tweaked sufficiently by tomorrow night.

I say 40 to 60 for the following reasons.  First, the Democrats gained 51 seats in the last two cycles.  Those seats have went Republican in the past and must be considered as potential takeover targets.  You can drop some from the list though because of strong Democrats and/or weak Republicans.  Of the top of my head, that gets you to roughly 40 seats.

Second, you have to look at all the seats that Bush and/or McCain won, but are held by a Democratic congressman.  48 of these seats went for McCain, but I doubt more than 20 really are in play at the moment.

Third, while I hate to guess, there are a couple wildcard races out there that we are all bound to discount or place very low on the takeover lists, but for some reason end up being in play when both sides doubted it even two months out.

Fourth, the local political environment matters.  Some states are going to be bigger bloodbaths than others.  For example, I foresee Pennsylvania being a bloodbath while somewhere like Texas or Georgia is unlikely to be as nasty for the Democrats because of what is going on locally.  The Democrats are getting lucky and potentially holding their loses in the 40 seat range because of a number of good breaks as of late.

Fifth, Nate's analysis of the generic ballot is driving my analysis to a point.  If it was not for bad candidates in a number of races, I would be more confident with the 60 figure.  Right now I lean really heavily on the 40 to 45 figure, which would be an unmitigated disaster of a House.  

Sixth, more ominously my friends more heavily involved in the markets are giving me negative signals like its late summer 2008 all over again.

I must admit I am a pessimist for the party on the losing end in the most recent elections.  I predicted the Republicans would lose around 40 seats in 2006 and around 30 in 2008.  When they did not, I was shocked.  So maybe I am overestimating Democratic performance again or I just overestimate the performance of the party on the offensive, but all I know is that I hope I am wrong and that the Democrats either get their act together and hold their loses to 20 seats or get blown out at 60 plus because anything fewer means we will have a very unstable House coupled with a very unstable Senate.  Not a good situation for our government.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I still say 30 or so

[ Parent ]
Ditto.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I think it's still too early to say
A loss of 25 is probably baked right now, but beyond that I don't know. I guess I'd probably side with conspiracy, but with the understanding that things may get worse (or they may stay the same. I'll concede that none of the economic signs right now are pointing to a better environment by November).

Politico also pointed out that things are looking different to Dems with in the beltway (more pessimistic) than those involved with the campaigns (more optimistic). Hopefully that's agood sign.  

[ Parent ]
It's still early yes
But I can agree with you that 25 is baked at this point but at the end of the day it's going to be 30 in the House and 5 in the Senate and I don't see them losing Congress.  

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Individual campaigns
The Republicans saved lots of seats the last two cycles so I don't see why Dems can't do the same, particularly those with far more money than their opponents. And again, many of these races are only now becoming properly engaged.
[ Parent ]
Yeah your on something if you really believe that
To win 60 seats they'l have to win most of the conservativDem seats then tap in to winning seats from moderate to liberal candidate and I don't see that happening nor do I see 60 strong GOPers that can flip those seats. Your dead wrong on your assumption.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
You're getting a one-week time out
We've warned you about your acerbic tone in the very recent past. It's not appropriate for SSP.
[ Parent ]
Sigh.
   Democrats have only had 4 years in control of Congress.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Yeah but I don't seeing them losing Congress one bit
Plus even if both flip (and that's a big flip) I don't see the GOP fairing well because they have had no new ideas to fixing the economy except saying no to everything. Hence the reason why they fare bad as well in polling regarding the economy.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I actually hope
We win the Senate but NOT the House. The Senate GOP leadership is more competent than the House, and I think they'd provide a better model of Republican governance, a positive one, while us winning the House would be a huge boost to Obama's re-election, being able to run against Speaker Boehnor.  
[ Parent ]
You know
I almost always agree with you GOPVOTER, but I don't think Obama would be able to run effectively against His Orangeness.

I'm not the biggest Boehner fan, but we've all seen how running against Speaker Pelosi worked out in the last several competitive special elections. I don't think running against the Speaker is a particularly good strategy for either side in any cycle. I think Pelosi's dismal approval ratings are only a reflection of the approval ratings of Congress as a whole. Not enough people are tuned in to the extent that Nancy Pelosi matters to them.

Plus, Obama will have a GOP opponent to run against for re-election, and probably an opponent who has little or no connection to Boehner himself. By 2012, the economy likely will have improved regardless of who is in power and (whether or not they are actually responsible) a GOP majority in Congress could reasonably take credit for whatever turnaround occurs.

A Republican majority in Congress is only a good foil for Obama if they fail to deliver on their promises and don't produce tangible results. And I don't think either of us would be rooting for them if we expected that to be the case.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
Do you think a Republican majority
in either House of Congress could get anything signed, or would cooperate with the President in any way? Gingrich was a good foil for Clinton because he shut down the government. Do you think Boehner would actually be more cooperative? You're absolutely right that Pelosi - and, for that matter, Tip O'Neill during the Reagan Presidency - are/were pretty useless to campaign against, but that's because enough Democrats actually worked with Republicans in the White House and Capitol Hill, not giving them their maximum demands but giving in quite a lot. I see no evidence, based on their actions these last two years, that any cooperation will be forthcoming from a significant number of Republicans in either House. And I think it's quite possible that Obama could run effectively against that kind of majority, if it comes to pass.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
In other words, a huge opportunity pissed away.
Thanks, ConDems.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Disagree
They have done a lot of good. Far from perfect but certainly worthwhile. This stuff is cyclical and we have to accept that.
[ Parent ]
I do not accept that.
We have/had/will-have-had huge majorities in both houses and a President with the biggest popular vote majority in twenty years with high approvals.  And it's gone now. Whether or not the majorities will be gone completely or if Obama recovers is relevant but comparatively unimportant; we won't have an opportunity this big again for probably quite awhile.

ENDA hasn't passed, so no federal protection for gays from job discrimination.  The Employee Free Choice Act hasn't passed, so workers have less of an arsenal to take on their employees.  Nothing on climate change.  Nothing on immigration.  A joke of a healthcare bill.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
OH-13
I can't report much.  There isn't much happening on the ground here in OH-13 right now.  You'd figure that Ganley would be looking to use his ridiculous cash-on-hand total to start defining himself positively.  I guess he thinks that because of his auto dealerships and normal community outreach through his businesses that his name recognition is already pretty good.  

The only campaigning that's going on right now is by the 527 group named Americans for Prosperity, they are robocalling houses (called my house Saturday), claiming that Betty Sutton's votes on key issues are bankrupting America, or something like that, I didn't listen to anything after that.  

Interestingly enough, two canvassers came to my house Saturday as well, one with the Ohio Democratic Party and the other with OFA.  I signed their pledge to vote in November and discussed several key races with them.  Cool stuff.  Turns out that my state house district, OH-HD18, is a republican leaning district in southwest Cuyahoga County that was taken over by democrat Matt Patten in 2008.  It could be the race that swings control of the State House (and congressional redistricting) if Strickland loses to Kasich.  So a lot of fire right now appears set on that race and the upballot races, especially the governor's race where Kasich is currently moneybombing the state with ads.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Fight hard for Sutton.
As for Boswell, I think he has enough dirt on Zaun to beat him handily.  Boyd can pull it off, but that's not guaranteed.  Marshall can win, but he needs to fight as well.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Stephen,
I thought there was a special council with the Governor, SoS, maybe auditor and others who controlled redistricting? Legislature too?  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
That's for state legislative redistricting
State redistricting is done by a 5-member panel, determined by who holds the governor, auditor, secretary of state, state house majority, and state senate majority.  At present the Dems hold a 3-2 advantage, but the only seat of the 5 that is a given right now is that the Repubs will have the state senate majority.  The governor and state house are tossups, and the SoS and Auditor races are open seats, so who knows what will happen?

Congressional redistricting on the other hand, is done by the state legislature, subject to veto from the governor.  The republicans can get a gerrymander if they win the governorship and pick up the state house (where dems lead 53-46 at the moment), otherwise it'll be decided in court most likely.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Patten has the advantage...
...of sharing a similar name to GOP State Senate stalwart Patton who's districts overlap.

Patten's a good kid.  I really liked his ads in 2008... they were 'republican style", meaning that they were emotional, passionate, and hit hard with nothing held back.  They emphasized his family and good guy image, which is the key to GOP ad success... and they are better at ads then we are.

Patten should be OK, he's a fighter!

[ Parent ]
Anonymity
For all we know that quote could be from a typical "Dem" concern troll like Doug Schoen. Besides, the whole article is much more mixed than that isolated bit suggests. Also, those incumbents mentioned haven't suddenly become endangered. I imagine they have all been on on vulnerability lists since at least the turn of the year. That being said, things are bad and could well get worse but personally I'm not there yet in terms of losing control of the House.
[ Parent ]
The more bad economic news
is reported, the worse the party in power will do in elections. Isn't that pretty much of a truism?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Possibly
Though I did say that. Anyway, I think much of that is already set in stone.
[ Parent ]
Not when the GOP in polling is fairing just as bad as Dems are in handling the economy
Coild end up the same 30 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate. Usually I would agree with you on that but not in this cycle. I mean the GOP has offered nothing to fix the economy except tax cuts and saying no.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
SC-Gov: A slew of mayors endorsed Sheheen today.
http://www.thestate.com/2010/0...

This, like GA-Gov, are races that could allow Democrats to put their foot back in the deep South.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Hickenlooper's
evil bicycle sharing, UN plot exposed!



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Disturbing


23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
LMAO!!
This is even better than the Sue Lowden Chicken remix video



17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 8/25 (Afternoon Edition) | 145 comments

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