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AK, AZ, FL, OK, and VT Primary Wrapup

by: Crisitunity

Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 3:24 PM EDT


Alaska: Last night's biggest story wound up being the Alaska GOP Senate primary, where Lisa Murkowski is on track to being the second sitting Senator to get bounced by the tea partiers, via the previously little-known Joe Miller. Miller leads Murkowski by 2,000 votes (51-49), although with about a dozen precincts outstanding and then at least 7,600 absentee ballots to be counted, we won't know anything for sure until possibly Sep. 8. With the outcome uncertain, Murkowski isn't conceding, but is already sounding sour-grapesy, sending some bad vibes in the direction of Miller-endorsing Sarah Palin. The winner will face off against Sitka mayor Scott McAdams, the Dem winner who suddenly finds himself in a potentially competitive race. (The DSCC is already out with a press release this morning hitting Miller's extremism, but they haven't said anything about McAdams yet.)

Also in the Last Frontier, the gubernatorial race shaped up as expected, with incumbent GOPer Sean Parnell (who got promoted to the job when Palin did the resigny-quitty thing) facing off against former Dem state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz. Both won their primaries with smaller than expected numbers, though (with each receiving 49% of the vote).

Arizona: Good news! For John McCain! He won his primary against J.D. Hayworth by a crushing margin -- 56-32 -- and all for the low, low cost of only his very soul (and tens of millions of dollars). He'll face off against Rodney Glassman in the Senate primary; the former Tucson vice-mayor won a crowded Dem field with 35% of the vote.

There was one lone surprise among the four contested GOP House primaries, and that was in AZ-08, where 31-year-old teabagging veteran Jesse Kelly upset former state Sen. (and establishment pick) Jonathan Paton, 49-41. Maybe the result in AZ-03 was a surprise too, given the underwhelming last few weeks of his campaign, but money and family name rec managed to push Ben Quayle to a dazzling 23% victory in a 10-person field. Democratic opponent Jon Hulburd welcomed Quayle to the field in withering terms:

This election is now between Jon Hulburd and Brock Landers. It's between a young man who fabricated a family, degraded women, and then tried to lie about it, and a small businessman and father of five who has been dedicated to his community...

In AZ-01, as expected, the victor was dentist Paul Gosar (at 31%), and in AZ-05, former Maricopa Co. Treasurer David Schweikert gets his rematch against Rep. Harry Mitchell (winning with 39%).

Florida: For Florida Democrats, the GOP gubernatorial primary was truly the Best of Both Worlds (sorry, I just can't get off the Peter Garrett thing). They could face off against a vociferously evil, Medicare-defrauding centimillionaire, or against an unpalatable dweeb with a long track record of losing elections, both of whom had turned each other radioactive with unprecedented levels of saturation negative advertising. In the end, the creepy rich guy won (spending $2.70 $84 per vote en route to a 46-43 win), advancing in thoroughly pre-defined form to face Democrat Alex Sink, left unscathed from her primary. McCollum has conceded without endorsing Scott, amidst the planned "unity rally" having already been scrapped several days in advance of the primary.

The Democrats own version of the GOP primary, in their Senate primary, turned out to not be so momentous; Kendrick Meek beat hard-partying billionaire Jeff Greene 57-31, and will try to wade into the general election battle between Charlie Crist (strangely still mum on how he'd caucus) and Marco Rubio. The most interesting House primary in the state was also one of the few Dem ones: Allen Boyd barely held off Al Lawson in a primary challenge from the left-ish in FL-02, winning 51-49 as Lawson rallied African-American voters. He'll face GOPer Steve Southerland in November. The FL-17 primary, to replace Kendrick Meek, was a relatively easy win for state Sen. Frederica Wilson, who got 35% to take over this safe blue seat. (Those sad over Regina Thomas's loss in GA-12 can at least take some comfort in that Wilson will be bringing her own crazy hat collection with her to the House.)

The tightest GOP House primary was in FL-24, where state Rep. Sandy Adams, basically that field's third wheel, made her way through the wreckage left by Craig Miller and Karen Diebel's attacks on each other to win with 30% of the vote, by a 560-vote margin (no AP call and no concession, though); Adams faces freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. Daniel Webster won with 40% of the vote in the GOP primary in FL-08, for the right to face Rep. Alan Grayson in what's likely to be the nation's most over-the-top House race. And in FL-25, state Rep. David Rivera won the GOP primary in this open seat race with 62% despite late-breaking allegations of, well, everything; he'll face Dem Joe Garcia.

Oklahoma: In the fourth case (along with AZ-08, FL-08, and FL-24) last night of the NRCC not getting their preferred and/or expected candidate (not that it matters much in this red district), social conservative Jim Lankford beat Club for Growther Kevin Calvey in the OK-05 runoff, by a wide 65-35 margin.

Vermont: The night's most refreshing primary -- one that was extremely civil and where one of the key issues was just how much each participant supported Vermont's possible move to single-payer health care -- also turned out to be its closest. With every precinct reporting this morning, state Sen. Peter Shumlin has a 190-vote lead over ex-LG Doug Racine, who in turn has a 494-vote lead on SoS Deb Markowitz. Shumlin has more or less declared victory, and will face Republican LG Brian Dubie.

Crisitunity :: AK, AZ, FL, OK, and VT Primary Wrapup
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Scott
I believe he spent about $85 per vote rather than $2.70?

Yeah that's correct (or close to right)
he got 595,183 votes and spent over $50 million.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
The $2.70 is how much he spent per Floridian


28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
JD Hayworth
Has JD Hayworth made any comment about the results?

He was everywhere on TV yesterday saying how we were going to see a stunning upset on Tuesday.

I would LOVE to see an interviewer ask him, "JD, so what do you think about that stunning upset in Alaska?"


Hayworth should just go away
I really would like to see him just go away.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Here's a funny idea for a Rick Scott campaign poster:
Photobucket

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


No-one's commenting on it. *sulks* LOL


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
We all erroneously assumed it's Scott's first general election mailer. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Breaking news
Lisa Murkowski considering running under a third party?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/b...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


Lieberman in reverse
I would enjoy nothing more than to see the Palinistas go down in flames through a Lieberman style stunt.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
OMFG YES PLEASE


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Must. Do. Hypothetical Projection.
Independent - 45%
GOP - 37%
Democrat - 18%

Murkowski - 43/38/20 = 37%
Miller - 35/57/7 = 38%
McAdams - 22/5/73 = 25%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
No way, Murkowski would be a distant 3rd. But yes she'd help McAdams win......
Losing a primary really hurts you, especially the way Murkowski lost.  Miller is fully validated, and the GOP establishment won't split in supporting Miller or Murkowski; they'll hold their noses and support the nominee in unison and call for Murkowski not to run.

And in any case I'd be shocked if Lisa tried it.  Lisa is surely in emotional shock, and I imagine she might have spent the past less-than-24 hours thinking about it simply as part of her denial.  Maybe she voiced it to someone, and that's how the rumor got started, but it doesn't mean she's serious about it.  Or maybe it's entirely a false rumor altogether.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
The smartest thing for her to do
IMO, is endorse Miller (after all ballots are counted) and wait until 2014 and challenge Begich or run for Gov if Parnell runs for Sen or retires.  

[ Parent ]
too bad Andrew Rice isn't running
in OK-05, I think he could have made the race competitive. OKC is the one area of Oklahoma moving steadily towards Democrats, moving in line with most urban areas in the United States.  

Thoughts.....
Bet Begich is happy. He is soon to be the Senior Senator form Alaska. Off topic but does that matter at all? You know besides sounding cooler (I'm the SENIOR Senator from Alaska. I am not overly sad for Lisa. Normally I hate it when moderate-ish Republicans lose to whack jobs but Murkowski is not that moderate anyway and she owes her whole political career to her dad. I do not like nepotism. We have no chance in November, Begich barely won in 2008 against a corrupt incumbent (RIP) so I do not see how we win this year. True Mama Grizzly is not on the ticket but I do not see it being competitive this year.

What is next for McCain? Does he move back to the center or does he keep his douche bag new image. People laugh but what he did to win this election disgusted me. I can't believe I once sent him money during his first Presidential run. I used to really like him, my whole family in fact. I now have no respect for him whatsoever. Back to my main point is he going to move towards the center of the aisle again? Surely he will not be as vocally conservative anyway. McCain will never be remembered as a maverick anymore but rather a coward who changed his philosophy for a late night infomercial host. McCain is a coward plain and simple.

Ben Quayle? WTF? I asked this earlier to know reply but do have a shot here? The thought of him in Congress sickens me. What did he ever do to belong in Congress? Way to go Republicans you nominated a frat boy with a famous last name. Wow.

I admit I mildly rooted for McCollum because I was afraid about Lord Voldmedort ,as Andrew calls him, winning the general. But hell with, I'm joining the bandwagon. YES, A DEM GOVERNOR IN FLORIDA, YES!!!!!  

Boyd is done. Stick a fork in him. His win was very unimpressive and that was after drastically outspending his opponent. He will have to get a high number of dems in the general and it is clear that is not going to happen. Lean R.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


If that link above your comment is true
That little ole' Lisa runs in a Third Party, it is conceivable that we get a second Democratic senator from Alaska.

How God damn awesome would that be?

DO IT LISA, DO IT!!!!!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
A Murkowski child has died so that a Quayle child may live


[ Parent ]
Ben Quayle probably should be favored
That district is pretty Republican, more so than the state of Arizona as a whole.

I'm not convinced Boyd is done because he almost lost to someone more liberal than he is.

As for McCain, he is a rank opportunist and will do and say whatever he thinks will get him reelected, unless he decides to retire, in which case, he may just vote based on his bitterness toward whoever has ever defeated him.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
The senior senator
traditionally gets consulted on judiciary-related appointments and stuff for their state, I believe.  Other than that, not particularly.

Stevens was corrupt, true, but he was also a huge figure in Alaska state politics, a la Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts.  Joe Miller isn't remotely comparable (though I still think he'll win).


[ Parent ]
THANK YOU
Finally someone mentions that. Then on top of it all you had the clueless campaign Begich ran, where he just tried to sit on a lead, and the DSCC inserting themselves, (out of state interests never). People acted surprised when Stevens almost won; forgetting this was a 40 year old incumbent who practically built the modern state of Alaska, a man with incredibly deep personal roots to countless local politicians, businessmen, and community groups, the man who was like a grandfather to many citizens.

The way I put it, think of Robert Byrd losing reelection because he got hit with corruption charges and Capito only barely wins. Then you'd have a good analogy. Not to say Begich won't have a very tough time getting reelected, particularly if he doesn't run a more practical, tough-nosed campaign than last time.  


[ Parent ]
Stevens "almost won" ENTIRELY because of Palin coattails. Remember it wasn't just Stevens, but also...
...Don Young who shocked all the pollsters.  He was down by a healthy margin in all polling, and yet won, in fact sort of comfortably.

This was all because of Palin.  Obama was actually competitive in Alaska until McCain picked her.  Had McCain picked someone else, especially Lieberman, Obama might have actually won Alaska, and he would have pulled Berkowitz over the top and allowed Begich a real cushion.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Obama was polling
the same in Montana and ND. Aren't those states politically similar to Alaska in some ways? At any rate, since Obama lost those, I'm not sure he would have won AK.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Remember my hypothetical requires a different GOP VP nominee, and that matters......
Palin hurt McCain with the general electorate, both directly and indirectly, because she's a dingbat and a demogogue.  But she helped with GOP base turnout, and in conservative states that mattered.

Say that McCain picked Lieberman, that would have been an unmitigated disaster that likely would have delivered Montana and North Dakota and, yes, Alaska to Obama.  And maybe some other states, too.  A lot of conservatives would have truly stayed home with McCain-Lieberman as their favored party's ticket.

You could look at someone else, like Pawlenty, and assume McCain won those competitive conservative states by some small margin, but I think it still would have been tighter than with Palin.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
If Palin runs in '12 and loses the R nod
will the traditional "disappointment" factor for the home state voters of losing candidates help President Obama in Alaska?

I think Sarah Palin's political instincts are brilliant -- for her constituency (not for America as a whole). But she's also tempermental like a 2 yr old when she doesn't get her way. I'd think she'd sit on her hands in '12 if she runs and doesn't get the nomination.


[ Parent ]
What is this "disappointment" factor you speak of?
I didn't notice Obama overperforming in AR/MA nor underperforming in NY.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Agree with sapelcovits, there's no "disappointment" vote. For Obama to carry Alaska...
...he needs his job approval to be in the 50s nationally, and he needs the GOP to nominate a bad candidate who runs a bad campaign, but who is not Palin (who is a bad candidate and will run a bad campaign but of course will win Alaska).  Most likely, that means Newt.  He'd be the next Goldwater.  Palin would be close, but she'd do better than Newt.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Quayle
Wins this year, Republican unify around one challenger, and he, hopefully, loses in 2012.

[ Parent ]

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