Google Ads


Site Stats

Alaska, Arizona & Vermont Primary Results Thread #4

by: James L.

Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 1:29 AM EDT


4:46am: Hm, nope. We're now at 77% reporting, and Miller's up by 2,996. That's it from me, though. Goodnight and good luck!
4:41am: Okay, I lied. With 72% now reporting (the final DoE update for the night), Miller now leads by over 3,100 votes.
4:28am: Final update, I swear! From the ADN:

The final results of the race won't be known for a week. The Alaska Division of Elections said over 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and as of Monday night 7,600 had been returned. The first count of absentees will be next Tuesday and there will be subsequent counts as they trickle in on Sept. 3 and on Sept. 8.

4:24am: The Anchorage Daily News is tweeting that the Alaska DoE will stop counting votes at 12:30am local (six minutes from now) and will resume in the morning. Hope you have your morning coffee ready!
4:00am: One final update from the SSP Rocky Mountain Headquarters: We're up to 66% of the vote reporting in Alaska, and Joe Miller's lead has shot up to 2,881 votes (still 52-48). Who knows how long it'll take to sort this one out. The last time we covered a close Alaska primary, we ended up liveblogging for 24 hours.
3:22am: We're going to call it a night at SSP. Before we go, though, a quick Alaska update: 51% are reporting (not much change over the last hour), and Miller's lead is 52-48, by 2,300 votes. Based on half-assed piecing-apart of the legislative districts (y'know, it seems like once every two years I really find myself wishing that Alaska had counties), though, that lead may be kind of fragile as more rural areas start to report more. But we'll know more tomorrow.
3:20am: A few minutes ago the AP finally called AZ-03 for Ben Quayle, who wins with an overwhelming mandate of 23%. He'll face Dem Jon Hulburd in November. Also just noticed the AP called, at some point, AZ-Sen D for Rodney Glassman, who wins with 35% and will face John McCain.
2:50am: And it looks like they've just shut it down for the night in Vermont, with no clear victor in the Dem gubernatorial primary. They're still stalled at 232 of 260 precincts.
2:49am: 94% reporting in AZ-03, but still no call. It's still Ben Quayle at 23, with 18 for Steve Moak, and 17 for Jim Waring and Vernon Parker each.
2:47am: Sean Parnell has been called the victor in the GOP gubernatorial primary. It wasn't that overwhelming, though: also exactly 50% of the vote, with Bill Walker pulling in 34%.
2:45am: Almost exactly half reporting in Alaska, and the Miller lead continues to grow very slightly: he's up to a 2,200 vote lead, good for a 52-48 margin. Whoever wins will face Scott McAdams; the Sitka mayor has been called by the AP as winner of the Dem primary (with 50% of the vote).
2:14am: With 36% reporting, it's still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski. The lead is up to 1,200 votes. Interestingly, though (if I'm reading this map correctly), it seems like the Mat-Su Valley (the most conservative part of the state, including Wasilla, home of Miller's most famous endorsers) has mostly reported (based on state House districts 12 and 15). The Bush (which if you remember your 2008 history, where Young's victory eventually came from) reports later, and they might be less teabaggish and more pork-friendly out there.
2:00am: The last uncalled GOP primary in Arizona is AZ-03, although we're up to 81% reporting. Ben Quayle is still leading, by that same 23-18-18 margin over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.
1:45am: One other call: the AP call the GOP primary in AZ-01 for rogue dentist Paul Gosar. He'll face Ann Kirkpatrick. He wins with only 31%, beating Sydney Hay at 23 and Rusty Bowers at 14.
1:42am: The AP has called Don Young's GOP primary for him, beating Sheldon Fisher with 70%. He'll face Dem Harry Crawford in November.
1:41am: We're up to 33% reporting in Alaska, and it's still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski, with a 1,000 vote lead for Miller. (Well, 1,002, if you want to get technical.)


RESULTS:

James L. :: Alaska, Arizona & Vermont Primary Results Thread #4
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

33% in and
Joe Miller actually expanded his lead to about 1,000 votes.

I still expect Murkowski to win but, damn son.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Miller
up by 1002 votes 33.3%in

AK-Sen Dem candidate Scott McAdams
is the mayor of Sitka, a town of 9000 people. This is roughly the same size of Wasilla.

So...

Scott McAdams for Vice President 2016


Looks like Vermont stopped counting
Maybe they shouldn't report one town at a time, but whatever.

the towns have all finished counting
They finished it up hours ago.

The issue is whether AP is able to get the results and report them.

Vermont doesn't have an election night reporting system. Instead, individual towns count their votes (in public) and then the town clerks go home and go to bed. In the morning, they'll send the results to the Secretary of State.

So, in lieu of any official election night counts, the AP sets up a system where they try to get the town clerks to report to them -- but if the clerk doesn't call the results in, AP can only try to track them down. (And there is nothing that a small town clerk likes better than getting a phone call from an AP stringer at 1 am to find out the vote total).

They may manage to fill in a few more reports tonight, but we'll probably have to wait until tomorrow for the final 20 or so towns to know definitively who won.

(Right now there are folks in the state trying to fill in some of the missing totals from towns... the final verdict seems that the outstanding towns pretty much cancel each other out and that Shumlin/Racine will be within 50-100 votes, no bets on who is on top...)  


[ Parent ]
Alaska jargon
"Times Counted" means...?

Registered Voters 487456 - Cards Cast 60538 12.42%

What does cards cast mean?  (54k votes counted now)


And apparently...
Haase is listed as libertarian but running in the Democratic senate primary? I'm so confused.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Apparently the ADL primary always works like this
It includes the Alaska Independence, Democratic, and Libertarian party candidates in 1 primary.  I looked back at past elections, and it seems to be the way it goes.

[ Parent ]
The Alaskan election page explains it all here
[ Parent ]
I guess cards cast is votes counted already
and times counted is the same number split between parties.

[ Parent ]
AP calls AZ-01 for Rogue Dentist


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


any idea where alaska voted are still out
looks like we might be in for a long haul regardless

Alaska
Its hard to get a read on what turnout will be, but it looks like GOP primaries in recent times for Senate/Gov have been in the 80,000-110,000 range or so.

If the turnout is on the lower end, its possible that Miller could pull it off.  

Do people really see Murkowski as a port deliverer?  She's only been a Senator for a small time, and the pork probably hasn't been as huge in recent years considering certain govt programs (TARP/Stimulus/Race for Education funds) were reviled by the GOP.

And the bridge to nowhere, even though not of her specific doing, made ths tate and pork look kind of silly.

I want to get cautiously optimistic.  If he gets up by 2,500 votes I'll probably stay up all night watching.


Miller still holding to a lead with 36% in
Miller, Joe REP 23251 51.24%
Murkowski, Lisa REP     22124 48.76%

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

C'mon Sarah
Deliver a win for Joe Miller.

[ Parent ]
Not just holding, but gaining....
Wow!

[ Parent ]
Some idiot at the NRSC forgot to poll this...
...kind of like Menendez forgetting to poll MA-Sen in January....

[ Parent ]
To that end...
... Is it too much wishful thinking to imagine Scott McAdams as our Scott Brown?

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Yes...
but dare to dream, it can't hurt to dream.

[ Parent ]
Probably....
...but, one never knows...

[ Parent ]
No centerfold, please
With all respect to Mr. McAdams, whatever his chances of pulling off an upset in November, let's hope that no photos of him posing nude ever emerge


[ Parent ]
I'm torn. No question McAdams will fare MUCH better against Miller than against Murkowski, BUT...
...can he actually win?

If the reality is that a Miller primary upset makes McAdams merely a 15-point loser instead of a 30-point loser, that's no benefit to us.

But maybe Miller is bad enough that the race comes around all the way, from 30 points to dead heat?

I don't think we have any idea, except to speculate that in a Republican state that embraces more than any other state some very quirky political leadership, and in an anti-Democratic national wave, a McAdams win still would be at least a mild upset.

But we shouldn't write off this race unless and until bad polling tells us to do so.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I don't trust Alaska polling
it's a notoriously difficult state to poll. Polling showed Don Young and Ted Stevens both getting creamed in 2008. Also, back when there was talk of Palin primarying Murkowski, polls got released showing Palin crushing Murkowski but also vice versa. Alaska polling is just too unreliable.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I agree with you on Alaska polling
We'll discuss it, but it will hardly be a shock if the general election results greatly surprise us once more.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Imagine how pissed at Palin that Murkowski will be if she loses
This family fued would get even more intense in the future.

[ Parent ]
Yes it would
But we'd have to think the Murkowki's are dead...and then you think about Begich being up in 2014 and you see Murkowski licking her chops on that one.

Maybe we should be cheering for Murkowski to win this one...to save Begich in the future.


[ Parent ]
well our "some dude" is not going to beat their "some dude"
so do we really want a Palinite in the Senate?

[ Parent ]
I suppose not
But I'm wondering more about preserving a Dem in AK with Begich.  But I don't know that he's not destiend to lose in 2014 no matter what.  

If Begich's fate isn't impacted, yes I want Palin's guy in there.  He can only be crazy and be a good fundraiser for us.


[ Parent ]
Odds
There's no way our some dude beats a sitting senator but an unknown who may have crazy positions or skeletons ready to pop out during an interview or debate?  I'll take the slight chance of beating an unknown over for sure losing any day of the week

[ Parent ]
Yeah I think I might actually be rooting for Murkowski if we can't beat her
Similar to wanting Bennett in Utah instead of insane Mike Lee. Isn't Lisa pro-choice?

[ Parent ]
She claims so, but data say otherwise
Voted YES on restricting UN funding for population control policies.

Voted YES on prohibiting minors crossing state lines for abortion.

Voted NO on $100M to reduce teen pregnancy by education & contraceptives.

However, she also:

Voted NO on barring HHS grants to organizations that perform abortions.

Voted YES on expanding research to more embryonic stem cell lines.

In sum:  Rated 14% by NARAL, indicating a pro-life voting record and Rated 50% by the NRLC (National Right to Life Committee), indicating a mixed record on abortion.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01


[ Parent ]
If Murkowki is dead now
she's dead in 2014.

I wonder if he is within 10 points in October if she would endorse our some dude (President McAdams) just to try and get her last licks in.


[ Parent ]
Nah
It's really just her and Parnell with statewide name rec.  I don't think Palin will mean as much in 2014, she'll have her chance in 2012 and she'll be crushed.

[ Parent ]
Um, if Murkowski can't beat Joe Miller now, she probably can't beat even an unknown state legislator in 2014......
Methinks expecting Lisa to have new life is not very realistic.  This goes beyond one primary, the Murkowski family appear to have become disliked as a political force within their own party.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well, Parnell's term will be up in 2014
and he ran for Congress once before, so I'm expecting him to run.

[ Parent ]
He will have serious competition
after yesterday's rather bleak showing in primary...

[ Parent ]
Getting way ahead of ourselves
... but if Miller pulls it off, just how bad is the Palin-Murkowski relationship? Bad enough for a cross-party endorsement?

I know exactly nothing about Alaskan politics, so I might be hoping for too much here.

This isn't in the purview of SSP, but I wonder also if a losing Murkowski would be more willing to cross over and vote with the majority in the Senate... But again, getting way ahead of myself.


[ Parent ]
Hmm
With 80% in, looks like Potatoe Jr. is holding steady. I bet he pulls it out.

I'd love to see the results of AK-Sen (R) but I oughta head off to bed. Thanks, SSP, for another fun primary night.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Up 1,260 votes
39.27% precincts reporting

Miller: 25,040
Murkowski: 23,780


Miller's lead holding up with 39% in
Miller, Joe REP 25040 51.29%
Murkowski, Lisa REP 23780 48.71%

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Oh, this is delicious. Miller's lead is holding in AK-Sen.
If Murkowski loses...Lisa, you wuz robbed! Endorse the democrat, and give Palin a final F.U.

Cat fud squared.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male


That would be great if that happened
Nothing is better than political drama like that.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Seriously?
It's good that it's state where they don't need so much money for campaigning, otherwise, I woud have said this guy is screwed.

That being said, it makes me wonder if the Democrats will find something about this and begin to unload on him.


[ Parent ]
Correction
I meant good for the Republicans, not for the Democrats.  

[ Parent ]
Paging Tony Knowles ...
If Miller pulls this off, I wonder if Democrats would try to pull a "Dan Maes" and try to convince McAdams to step down in order to run Tony Knowles.  As with Maes, I see no reason why McAdams would do so.

Looking at which Alaska state legislative races have reported, it seems that even though only about 40% of precincts have reported, I bet a lot more than 40% of the total votes for the night have already been counted.  The districts in the bush have more precincts than the "urban" districts do, and those bush precincts haven't come in.  While Murkowski should be favored in them, they have fewer votes per precinct.  


Should, coulda, woulda
That's story. If had chosen to run in the nomination, he could have pushed this to a toss-up, if not more.

As it stands, too bad for him (and the Democrats).  


[ Parent ]
Tony Knowles is past
He's lost too much in recent years.

I agree, even though 40% of precints are in, I'd have a tough time seeing turnout that much over 100,000 votes in the GOP primary.  That's helps make this so interesting.

If we're currently at 40% of votes, that would translate to a turnout of over 125,000, which just seems too big.  


[ Parent ]
True
But what other candidate do they have? Let's hope the current Democratic nominee can pull a Kay Hagan. I doubt it, but we will see.  

[ Parent ]
Ehh, try to cultivate something new
We're not going to have a deep bench in AK.  Running the same candidate over and over who maxes out at 40-45% doesn't actually improve the positions of Dems.  

It actually hurts because eventually Knowles will dies and the Dems won't have run a serious candidate for Senate/Governor except Begich in like a 20-30 year time span (sorry Berkowitz couldn't beat Young so I don't consider him serious).


[ Parent ]
Pretty happy with the Florida results
Overall, the House, Senate, and Governor outcomes give Democrats a great chance to hold or win many of the seats in November, although Republicans managed to choose some of the more challenging opponents for Democrats to face in the House races. In my local county (Polk County), an anti-science School Board member, as well as poor member generally, is barely holding onto second place. The candidate that I chose finished 1st with 28.66%, so I am hoping she can round up the anti-incumbent votes for the November top two runoff and make the School Board more progressive.

Last update on Vermont
The AP Count has Shumlin ahead by 121 votes with 232 of 260 reporting.  Per the Seven Days blog, I know the results in St. Albans City and St. Albans Town.  I also have the results from Middlesex from the Times Argus Times Argus.

So with 235 precincts in (my count is better than AP's I am happy to say) I have Shumlin ahead by 20 votes.

That's right: 12 fricken votes.

I have their totals as follows:
From AP:
Shumlin 16960
Racine 16839

St Albans Town
Racine 143
Shumlin 129

St Albans City
Racine 146
Shumlin 129

Middlesex
Racine 127
Shumlin 93

Which give you the following totals:
Shumlin 17275
Racine 17255


Its late
And here is how the totals should read.  Still a 20 vote margin:
From AP:
Shumlin 16960
Racine 16839

St Albans Town
Racine 143
Shumlin 129

St Albans City
Racine 146
Shumlin 93

Middlesex
Racine 127
Shumlin 93

Which give you the following totals:
Shumlin 17275
Racine 17255


[ Parent ]
Murkowski gaining with 44% in
Miller, Joe REP 27787 50.88%
Murkowski, Lisa REP 26822 49.12%

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

i think Murkowski will pull ahead
and win by a couple thousand

[ Parent ]
Seems like it
I needed to see Miller up by 2,500 to get excitied, and he barely got up by half that much.

Oh well.


[ Parent ]
Ugh, it just went the other way
The lead is now only 965 votes.   It begins...

Miller: 27,787
Murkowski: 26,822

44.75% of precincts.


Here's what I don't get
I heard she's a "well-liked" nominee, yet she's consistenly in these close elections. She seems well-aware of this fact herself, but why does everyone think she would have won this thing handily in the first place?

[ Parent ]
Correction
She wasn't in close primary last time. But she was in close GE Race, and I haven't seen much evidence that she's actually "well-liked".  

[ Parent ]
She was running against Knowles
A popular 2 term governor.  He's pretty much guaranteed around 40% of the vote so her having a blowout isn't that common.  Also, the nepotism thing irked a lot of people.

She'd win the 2010 GE by 30-40 points I'd imagine.


[ Parent ]
Anti incumbents
I think its rare for AK to dislike incumbents, so they don't know what to do.  This is a surprising result that its this close.  Also Parnell only hitting 50% tells me that incumbents aren't that popular until a few terms served in AK.

[ Parent ]
I know, but..
I know that, but to be fair, incumbents are re-elected most of the time anyway.

The real question is, is current GOP "ideology" affecting their base in such way where they will vote agains their own interests (like the South)?

I mean, for a long time, Alaskans have voted over and over for incumbents that bring home the bacon. But is that more important than ideology purity among Alaskan GOPers? That's the question.  


[ Parent ]
I think that's where I have an issue
What did Murkopwski bring home?  And is there reason to think Miller couldn't bring home the same?  Its not like Murkowski has huge tenure in the Senate.

I think this primary isn't about Pork, i think people see it as a wash in that regard.  I don't think its an either/or option.


[ Parent ]
It looks like Miller is hanging on to his lead.
http://www.adn.com/2010/08/17/...

has 196 of 438 precincts reporting with Miller having a 955 vote lead.  According to Mudflats' commenters that includes part of Fairbanks and 50% of Anchorage's s vote.  


Are Fairbanks and Anchorage Miller turf?
I'd assume that's where the more moderate GOP is, but its Alaska, so I have no idea really.

[ Parent ]
Fairbanks
Miller is from Fairbanks.  I thought Murkowski represented part of Anchorage in the state legislature at one time, but I'm not sure.

[ Parent ]
WHOA
is that an error or did Miller just go up by 2,200 votes with 49.77% in?

where did you see that?


[ Parent ]
Miller lead widens again with 49% in
Miller, Joe REP 32275 51.84%
Murkowski, Lisa REP 29979 48.16%

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

just saw that also
we are going to be in for a long night.  

[ Parent ]
The Republican establishment deserves this.
For letting the crazies loose.  

[ Parent ]
That Senater crazy to you sir.
/Boxered

[ Parent ]
On top of that
If this pattern continues for the next two years, Boehner and McConnell might primaried out by their machinations.  

[ Parent ]
Agreed
They opened up something that they can't control now.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Were the control in the first place?
It reminds me of amatuer arsonists that attempt to start a fire but themselves badly hurt in the process; and rather blame themselves for starting a fire in the first place, they bomoan the fact the fire should not have burned them. Note: It's FIRE. Of course it can go out of control.  

[ Parent ]
Wait--what's funnier?
Miller

http://joemiller.us/index.php

--or--

McAdams

http://www.scottmcadams.org/

The Battle of Creative Facial Hair of 2010.

I can't believe Murkowski is eating shit.

This is the biggest surprise of 2010--if it holds.

BTW, I love--love--the still of Murkowski from Miller's web site looking like she has no idea what in the world is going on around her. It looks like an SNL skit.

McAdams has a chance if Miller's the nominee.


[ Parent ]
2nd biggest suprise
Scott Brown won

[ Parent ]
That was the biggest relief
I'll take two years of Brown over eight of Coakley.

And I'll raise you a Meehan in '12.


[ Parent ]
62,000 votes
with only 50% of precincts in.  Either we're seeing big turnout or the precincts left to report are samll in terms of vote count.

[ Parent ]
It looks like
the extremly wilderness areas of house district 37-40 have barely reported, but are they dem strongholds?

[ Parent ]
Could a moderate Republican run as an independent?
Anyone out there knowledgeable about AK election law?  I see to recall that in one of Knowles's gubernatorial campaigns, the Alaska Republicans nominated someone with legal issues and a moderate Republican launched an independent bid that basically got as many votes as the Republican nominee.  If Miller holds on, I wonder if some ambitious Alaska Republican would consider an independent bid -- if it's not too late to do so??  That would be exactly what McAdams needs.

Heck
If Murkowski gets angry enough, maybe she could be the one to go Indie.  or do they have a sore loser law?

[ Parent ]
Alaska's filing deadline is June 1.
I think that Miller will win. His name recognition should by now be larger than McAdams's, and a Republican without a scandal beats a Democrat without a scandal in Alaska any time, I think.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
You're right
You're right.  In the election I was thinking of, the other Republican ran a write-in campaign and ended up finishing 2nd.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A...

Without any scandals, I don't think Miller would have to deal with any credible write-in candidate.


[ Parent ]
Heh I can't imagine what voting is like in northern Alaska.
Must take some dedication specially in november heh.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

I love that McCollum lost
I just needed to say that.

Too bad Boyd didn't go down too.  Though I don't see how he survives November with that result.  And if Murkowski chokes too, I might just send the Tea Party a check to keep up the gag good work.... :D


All depends on if the Lawson voters show up in november.
To be honest I think Boyd will be okay but if he lost i would be surprised but not upset haha.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Its up to 2,350
51.37% of precincts in.

Just get to 2,500.


Miller still leading with 51% in
Miller, Joe REP 32955 51.85%
Murkowski, Lisa REP 30605 48.15%

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

AP doesn't delcare Ben Quayle the winner in AZ-3?
Just one precinct left.

AP has called D Senator for Glassman
in Arizona.

McCain is getting 57%
Now there's a GOP vote of confidence....

[ Parent ]
Interesting that Berkowitz hasn't won the gov primary (D)
I figured he'd have this put away. French might be a better candidate tho since Berkowitz lost to Don Freakin Young and in 2008 of all years.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

won it yet*
He's still ahead though and probably will win it just surprised he hasn't allready.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
This will really piss off McConnell
Murkowski is in his personal advisory circle, and it takes one more woman out of the Republican caucus to make it a little bit more of the white male club

But it makes an odd amount of sense
Palin beat her daddy for governor and now she again helps destroy the political fortunes of the Murkowski family.

[ Parent ]
FWIW
My source at the Egan Center put me on the phone with Republican state senate candidate Ron Slepecki, who says that he believes Murkowski will pull it out. "Juneau isn't in yet. . . . I still think she's looking good for the win,"

http://theothermccain.com/2010...


Maybe this race will turn out like AR-Sen (D)
win by 52-48 either way I suspect the margin will be less then 5.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Love the line in the linked report about
The higher Repub turnout in AK.  There is SUPPOSED TO BE HIGHER REPUBLICAN TURNOUT IN ALASKA YOU TWIT, it is a Republican state...

[ Parent ]
Heh it's fun to think of 40k as a huge advantage
when you come from a state like FL lol.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
We used to think of it as a huge advantage in Oregon
But our edge is now well over 200k (D vs. R Registered) here :-)

[ Parent ]
If only...
Any of us knew a gosh darn thing about AK voting patterns.

[ Parent ]
This is what you get when you run into a state
That doesn't have counties.

[ Parent ]
Counties wouldn't help me
I still wouldn't be able to figure anything out...

[ Parent ]
But its easier to break down voting patterns with counties
I know that I can go look up historical performance in almost any state in county by county to track what candidates need to hit to win.

[ Parent ]
You never know
After that GA-GOV run-off even then it was quite the exercise and hardly anyone got it right.

[ Parent ]
I thought that
Juneau was House district 3 and 4, and they are almost all in.

[ Parent ]
French may kick himself for not running for the Senate
Although knowing nothing about him, I'll take the mayor of Alaska's 4th largest city (even if it has less population than some buildings...)

Heh
I bet a lot of politicians are kicking themselves for not getting in.  

[ Parent ]
Wrap it up boys and girls, its over
If we extrapilate out the votes for all the counts that are at least 50% in(all but HD 6,36, 37, 38, 39, 40) there are only 3,350 votes left. Also looking at the registration numbers on the state site compared to actual numbers 75% of the number of republicans voted in the primary(its high because un/nonafiliated voters can vote republican too).  Use this to decide that there are only 7,100 could have voted republican in the 6, 36, 37,38 ,39 and 40 HD.

Also remember that we know that 1,000 already voted in the 6th and 36. so we get 6,000. also 15% voted so far in 37-40 so subtract another 300 or so.

What we get is ~9,000 votes left, many still in neutral or pro miller districts.

This thing is over.


Well I'm still paying attention...
Oh look at that 77% in Miller still up by 3,000

Also the Northern and western Districts are coming in and most must have been mail in becuase they were all 1st precint heavy


Day's Preliminary impressions
1. Some upsets (the biggest one, naturally in Alaska, if Miller clings to his lead), some near-upsets (FL-02, to some extent FL-24, AZ-08 and, may be even FL-Gov (R))

2. Some extremely close calls, especially VT-Gov (D), which will require quick reconciliation around winning candidate. Otherwise - chqances will diminish greatly.

3. A lot of "crazies" on Republican side - FL-Gov, AK-Sen (if holds), AZ-08. Unfortunately - this year most of the crazies will win, so it reminds me to some extent 1994, when, looking at newly elected Republican Congressmembers, most people said: "that's crazies - they will be defeated next time". Some - were, but not too much, and some are "still here".. Democrats were able to regain control of the House only 12 years later, and risk to lose it this year, after only 4 years.

4. Republicans are still better organized and energized. Obama squandered gigantic political capital quicker then any President after James Carter, and may be - even quicker... His name and support is an albatross in most places (in general election of course, in primary it may even help "to rally the faithful")...


Jimmy Carter?
Jimmy Carter??? Again??? Sheeeeeeeit! How about change it up a little? Grover Cleveland!

[ Parent ]
May be. I didn't looked so far back)))


[ Parent ]
"Squandered"? How exactly does that word apply in your world???......
We got the biggest stimulus ever that saved millions of jobs.  We got a major health care reform.  We got major financial industry reform.  We got a whole host of other things that without the aforementioned items were at least as meaningful as anything Clinton accomplished in any 2-year stretch of his Presidency.

The big things so many Democrats want done are controversial, that's why they're "big" and take so long to get done.  And "controversial" means you lose votes the next time around for doing those things.

Not to mention Obama inherited an economic disaster he had no control to reverse except exceptionally slowly, and the stimulus he got, and auto industry bailout plan, and other smaller things he's done are the maximum of whatever was politically possible.  Our economy was not going to be in any better position than it is now no matter what Obama did.

We lose elections sometimes simply because life isn't fair, and a party in power gets held responsible for consequences for which it wasn't responsible.  That's just among the vagaries of electoral democracy.

I have played it through my head over and over again, trying to imagine what Obama could have done that would have made things better now.  The communication strategy has been a major fail and he and Axelrod and Gibbs deserve blame for that.  Letting Baucus drag out HCR in committee was a major fail, too.  But ultimately better work in those things would not have us in a much better position than we're in now.  The economy being as bad as it is, we were likely to lose the House no matter what.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Yes, you got exactly what you mentioned in your post
The only caveat: majority seems to dislike what it got. As a result - Obama's ratings, once skyhigh, are rather dismal now. Yes, not so dismal as 2006-2008 ratings of Bush, but who cares about Bush NOW?? Obama had tremendous following among Indies like me - what remains now?? I already mentioned that all my relatives, who could vote, supported Obama in 2008. But almost noone wants to vote for him now. Under almost any circumstances. That's what i call "squander"...

[ Parent ]
Please...
The only way Obama could have kept those ratings was to do nothing at all.    

Reagan was very unpopular at this point in his presidency, his party took significant losses in the midterms, he then went on to win 49 states two years later.  Look what happened to Clinton from '92 to '94 and then '96.  

Controversial accomplishment require political capital.  If they succeed, the capital comes back.    


[ Parent ]
Yes. Sometimes..
But dsometimes - not. As it was with Carter. And with other "one-term Presidents". I don't know which way Obama will go. But would like to know...

[ Parent ]
Actually, no, "doing nothing" would have put him in an even WORSE position......
Let's play the counterfactual (a favorite word of Marc Ambinder) game and pretend Obama shocked us all at the outset of his Presidency with a stimulus plan along Republican lines, with lots of tax cuts and other random things a garden variety conservative might put into a recession-fighting plan.  And let's pretend Congressional Democrats went along with it and passed it.  Realistically, where would be today?  No one can argue with a straight face we'd be any better off, because we wouldn't.  In fact, the Bush stimulus in 2008 and the Obama 2009 stimulus together gave the country almost one-half trillion dollars (YES, ALMOST $500 BILLION) in TAX CUTS, so we actually did get that in addition to almost $500 billion in spending.  So my counterfactual isn't even very "counter" in the first place.

And let's say Obama then stuck with small stuff, no health care reform or maybe just something very Clintonesque in being watered down, and Wall Street reform also right out of the gate.

Right now the economy would be the same shambles it's in now and very likely worse, Obama' job approval would be in the low/mid-40s, and our House control would be just about gone just as it actually is.  And on top of all that, the Democratic base would be far more dejected than they are simply because so little would have been done.  We'd have a major turnout modeling problem in November that would be much worse than what we face.

The 800-pound gorilla in this election is and always has been the economy, and unless one thinks there's some genius plan out there that was politically possible that could have ended this recession for good sometime earlier this year, then it's a given we're going to lose a lot of blood this November and likely lose the House.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Exactly what i wanted to say
The people wanted change. They got change. But majority of them doesn't like that change. May be - they will like it 2 (or 4, or 25) years from now and will glorify wisdom of present President as second, well, if not Roosevelt then, at least, Kennedy. But - not now. Now many feel badly about their support of Obama in 2008, and are bitterly disappoined. that's in character of human person.. Once again - that may change, but not instantly..

[ Parent ]
Obama would be more popular now...
.. if he had been honest about the pain ahead, and consequently lowered expectations.  Whoever the fuck suggested saying '8% unemployment' should be shot.  

A plan to lower spending/deficit on some things, while investing in new technologys should have been the focus.  Doing a less massive HCR bill would allow him more short term popularity, but at the sacrifice of the one time opportunity to 'go big'.

Simply put, he could have acted differently and kept his ratings up, and probably kept both Houses, but at the cost of his accomplishments.  He is shooting for a legacy, not an unblemished political track record.    


[ Parent ]
P.S. Sorry for indulging in "pure politics" here....


[ Parent ]
McAdams
Hopefully the DSCC gets in here to help this guy out, or at least do a quick proofread of his website and tell him to fix the typos. Interior Alaska is "to far away to engage?" Come on man, stop killing the language.

Hell maybe Betty White can make an appearance; "The Proposal" was set in Sitka (though not really filmed there).

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


He has
4,500 $ on hand... :-/

33, living in Germany  

[ Parent ]
Still counting, 84%
and 2,550 margin.  That's about 550 votes in 7%... if that rate continued she'd cut the margin to 400 or so, which smells like choas to my with thousands of absentees out that won't be counted till September.

Maybe Miller will even manage to say some very mean things about Lisa during that time.

I know she wouldn't want to be a Senator, but I wonder if Palin is kicking herself for not running.


Today is my birthday and what a present!
Alex Sink in good position. Liberal Lisa embarrassed if not defeated.

How's that Tea tasting Mitch?  If all the wackos (Angle, Paul, Utah guy,Russ johnson, Miller, Rossi,etc.) win in November, you might take a back seat to DeMint.

Christine O'Donnell must be smiling today !! You can do it girl, kill that RINO Castle. Kelly Ayotte will be looking over her shoulder too.

McCain would have lost if he had had a less baggaged opponent.  



Happy birthday!
You are in good company:  my grandfather would have been 95 years old today.  He was my hero, along with being a civil rights Democrat in a conservative Southern town in NC.  

I'm not too thrilled about the AK-Sen race.  Although this might be a kick in the pants to Mitch and the NRSC, I look at this as more of a victory for Palin and Teabagger nation.  Although Murkowski isn't my favorite senator, she wasn't crazy conservative as many of her GOP senate collegues.  Heck, she even voted with the Dems on occassion.  Unfortunately, Miller, should he win the primary, will be a strong favorite to win the general election.

You are right about O'Donnell...I'm sure she is smiling.  Castle is probably not too popular with the teabaggers, but he's still fairly popular in Delaware.  If Castle is somehow defeated in the primary, I see Coons winning in the general election.    

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Alaska Boroughs
How come Alaska doesn't report by boroughs?

4:46 AM?!
poor James. Get some coffee dude.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


From Florida

FL-2: Boyd survives by about 2,000 votes
FL-24: Sandy Adams wins the Republican nomination


Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox