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Predictions Thread

by: Crisitunity

Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 6:30 PM EDT


Polls close in less than an hour in select locations, so let's hear some predictions! Can Bill McCollum beat free-spending Rick Scott by virtue of being less unlikeable in the Florida governor's race? Can Jeff Greene sail his vomit-covered yacht through the rapidly closing window in the Florida Senate race? Can J.D. Hayworth help you get free government grant money?

Closing times tonight:
• Florida: 7 pm ET (except: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET in the Panhandle)
• Vermont: 7 pm ET
• Oklahoma: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET
• Arizona: 7 pm MST/10 pm ET
• Alaska: 8 pm local/midnight ET (except: 8 pm local/1 am ET in the Aleutians)
Crisitunity :: Predictions Thread
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Predictions Thread | 33 comments
Mostly going with Conventional Wisdom on these
FL-Gov: McCollum 53%, Scott 47%

FL-Sen: Meek 58%, Greene 32%, Other 10%

FL-2: Boyd 63%, Lawson 37%

FL-8: Webster wins by at least 5%.

FL-24: Miller wins.

AZ-Sen: McCain 72%, Hayworth 28%.

AZ-3: Vernon Parker wins.

AZ-5: Schweikert wins.

AZ-8: Kelly wins

VT-Gov: Markowitz wins.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Here I go
However, these predictions are for only races I care about:

FL-GOP-Gubby: I wish a different result but Scott peaked too early and got exposed for the crook he is, so:

McCollum- 55%
Scott - 45%

FL-Dem-Senny: Ditto GOP-Gubby but Greene is an even slimer slime ball than Scott and worse, he ran a shitty campaign anyway even though he could have buried Meek since the latter was completely unknown.

Meek - 60%
Greene - 40%

AZ-GOP-Senny: Hayworth, someone even more distasteful than Scott and Greene combined, except he is a huckstering loudmouth bitchass, will go down in flames as McCain completely annihilates him with militant force, you kind feel sorry for the Hayworth da Slim-Fast Huckster (not).

McCain: 65%
Hayworth: 35%

Other AZ races: Quayle comes third, and I can't remeber who else is running in the rest of the races.

Oh, last one:

AL-GOP-Senny: Palm face Palin has less influence in Alaska than even she or the media realizes. Murkowski bitchslapps Miller back to the Ice Age.

Murkowski-70%
Miller-30%  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

AL should have read AK n/t


Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
[ Parent ]
predictions
i'm saying this disclaimer once: I had a dubie internship, that ended because school is starting.

VT-GOV
Shumlin 32%

FL-Gov
MC 52%

Meek 55%

AZ mccain 58%

AK Murkowski 67%


Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

I am HORRIBLE at these
I should not even try but I will anyway. I am going to say McCain wins by a somewhat close margin of 57-43. I am going to say Glassman loses to what's his name? I am going to say that Murkowski wins by a margin of 52-48. Against wisdom but be bold or go home. Florida, Greene pulls an upset and wins by a couple of points. McCollum survives by a small 51-49 margin. I think the LG loses the AG race if that makes since and I think Boyd wins by a 60-40 margin. I am also going to say Quayle loses, I know little about the race so I am just making the ever bold prediction that he goes down. I am not about to shed a tear for the privileged sob either. To Vermont, I will say the SoS but I am just guessing.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Its OK
I've been dead wrong every week for the last month, but i still do it!  
[ Parent ]
Most
of my predicts where way off but I feel kind of good about Alaska. I am the only one who thought it would be close. Ben Quayle, are shitting me? Do we have a chance in November? Hell, I may send a donation to our guy if we do.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Being the less unlikeable politician
Is like being the most smartest model.

I suck at predictions when I know little about the state(s) involved. But what the hell:
FL-Gov:
The RentBoy AG: 55%
Evil Rich Dude: 45%

FL-Sen:
Meek: 48%
Greene: 38%
Ferre: 7%
Others: 7%

AK-Sen:
Murkowski: 64%
Miller: 36%

AZ-Sen:
Walnuts! - 62%
Just Plain Nuts - 38%

FL-Dem Primary
Boyd: 60%
Lawson: 40%

I'm kinda meh on all the other races, so I'll just leave it there.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Polls in most of FL closed 9 min before your post...
cheater! ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, Florida is holding off on releasing results until 8
because of those that live on the panhandle in the Central time zone.
[ Parent ]
What other states do that?
I know Idaho does that too but it seems like most states that are split between time zones start reporting results as they come in.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Oh yeah?
Scott 51
Mccollum 49.
Yeah, that's right. I went there.

Meek 55
Greene 38
The other one 7


Polls closed in most of Florida, cheater! :P
also, just so people know, there is a 3rd candidate in FL-Gov (R), so McCollum and Scott will not likely pull 100% of the vote together.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
They're still open in the Panhandle
poopie face. (If that is, in fact, your real name).
[ Parent ]
Woah, how'd you know my name?
also, strangely enough, Politico is showing results for FL-Sen (R) but nothing else...and the vote totals seem a bit high even for absentees...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Intellius
Wonder if that's poor coordination or early votes. I'll put this on my list of questions that will be relevant for exactly 26 minutes.
[ Parent ]
Nah.
  40% of voting will supposedly be from absentees.  100,000 voters so far seems rather low turnout - if that were all absentees.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
absentees or earlies?

[ Parent ]
361K early votes when closed Sunday
I think. Now wondering if recall correctly.

Anyway. EVs counted and rpeorted differnetlly than absentees. dpends on county.

[ Parent ]
I'd love to party with you all tonight
but I have company coming over soon so I won't be checking in till fairly late. Hopefully there will still be some action then.

I don't really feel well informed enough to make predictions so I will just say that tonight will be great news for John McCain. Also because it would result in great lulz I will predict a Susan Bitter Smith victory in AZ-05 (R), even though that's impossible because of the pure amount of win it would be made out of.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Quick predix
Alaska: Parnell, Berkowitz, Murkowski, McAdams
Arizona: McCain, Glassman, Gosar, Moak, Ward, Paton
Florida: McCollum, Meek, Boyd/Southerland, O'Donoghue, Moise, Miller
Oklahoma: Thompson, Lankford
Vermont: Markowitz
Florida
Bush 49%
Gore 49%

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
I am surprised there isn't more commentary on McCollum's...
jaw strength.
Take a look at that dude sometime, especially from the impeachment era. He looks like he could just, like, bite the cover off a baseball.  
where's the babka?
Not predicting without an incentive.

Never do anything you're good at for free. Good thing I'm a lousy lay.

I'm not sure I follow

[ Parent ]
I think we may have to wait until 8:00 eastern...
... for results in Florida. IIRC they don't release any results until all the polls in the State have closed.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
jeez
Why would Fl be gunshy about reporting results early?
[ Parent ]
Brian Moore - Sink Primary Challenger
  Why would anyone vote for him?  He's a socialist and former Buchanan supporter.  That's just weird.

24, Male, GA-05
not as odd
as Pat and Lenora Fulani together on the Reform party ticket.
[ Parent ]
Buke has some occasional laborish rhetoric...
especially when he's running for sh*t
[ Parent ]
But one of the finer moments..
in election law adjudication was hearing the Florida Supremes ask the Republican lawyer advocating Nader's place on the 2004 ballot as the Reform Party candidate on the basis of the Reform Party's 2000 showing --
"You maintain that this is the same political party? The same party that nominated Pat Buchanan has now chosen Ralph Nader as its standard bearer?"
[ Parent ]
Senate races
Rubio, Meek in Florida

McCain in Arizona (Seeing Hayworth would call for celebratory gunfire if I lived in some distant land)

Murkowski will lay the smack down and show Wasilla's Village Idiot whose boss.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

Copy and Paste
From the Primary preview thread:
PRedictions
With all the super crowded house primaries, I will not do all house races.
AZ-Sen:
McCain: 64
Hayworth: 30
Deakin: 6

AZ-03
Moak
Parker
Crump
Gorman
Quayle
the rest
I guess the winner wins with around 20%, or less.

AZ-08
Kelly: 54
Paton: 45

Fl-Gov:
Scott: 51
McCollum: 49
Scott with late momentum, also hoping to put the GOPVoter curse on him.

Fl-Sen
Meek: 54
Greene: 37
Ferre: 6
other: 3

Fl-02
Boyd: 60
Lawson: 40
Hoping the GOPVoter curse strikes twice in FL!

Fl-05
I think Nugent faces some backlash for being the handpicked candidate.
Nugent: 55
Sager: 45
Probably wrong.  

Predictions Thread | 33 comments

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