Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 3:25 PM EDT


• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: ColoradoPols has an interesting question up at their site: who's crazier, the Republicans' candidate in the Senate race or the Governor's race? (In fact, that's a good question for the comments here... not just Colorado, but for a whole number of other states too.) The DSCC would like the answer to be "Ken Buck," the whole Dan Maes UN-bicycle-plot thing notwithstanding: they're out with a new ad working the Paul/Angle-style "too extreme" angle, here focusing on Buck's support for eliminating the 17th amendment.

• PA-Sen: This is going to be a hard one for Pat Toomey to explain without some high-impact semantic gymnastics. At the Pennsylvania Press Club yesterday, Toomey said "I've never said I favor privatizing Social Security." The DSCC promptly rolled out 36 different newspaper articles in which Toomey favored privatizing Social Security. We Ask America did offer some sustenance for Toomey, though: they find him leading Joe Sestak 48-35.

• FL-Gov: Here's a bad sign for the Republican Party of Florida (aka RPOF, pronounced "rip-off"), who poured a lot of money into carrying Bill McCollum across the finish line in the primary and will have to keep propping him up for November. They're down to $54K in their federal campaign finance account (after plowing much of their holdings into outside committees backing McCollum). Maybe they'd been counting on a reimbursement check from disgraced former state party chair Jim Greer to help fill their coffers a bit, but here's the ultimate ignominy: Greer's $7K check to reimburse the party for overcharges bounced.

• LA-03: Politico has a preview of the Republican primary in the open seat 3rd (which will be decided this Saturday, don't forget). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty universally considered frontrunner, but he faces a double-teabagging from attorney Jeff Landry and engineer Kristian Magar, who are pointing to his decades as a Democrat, and his snubbing of Tea Party events. Downer's fate could rest on whether he clears the 50% mark and avoids a runoff, as he could face more trouble against just one opponent.

• MI-01, MI-07: It looks like the Tea Party won't be getting a ballot line in Michigan, after a 2-2 decision by the state's Board of Canvassers. (The tie means they're kept off the ballot.) Republicans brought the challenge pointing to possible Democratic involvement in getting the Tea Party on the ballot (to the extent that a member of the Oakland County Dem leadership helped them). This probably has the greatest impact in the competitive races in the 1st and 7th, where the Tea Party had had candidates ready to go (Lonnie Lee Snyder and Danny Davis, respectively), presumably who would eat into the GOP's vote share.

• NJ-06: Who knew that when Facebook was created that it'd become a preferred venue for leaking internal polls? Anna Little, the surprise victor in the NJ-06 GOP primary, is now touting a poll from National Research showing her trailing Rep. Frank Pallone 40-34.

• OR-05: One other GOP internal poll kicking around today: state Rep. Scott Bruun, is out with a poll via local Republican pollster Bob Moore giving him a 41-38 lead over freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader.

• Ads: The big ad of the day may be Harry Reid's newest attack on Sharron Angle in NV-Sen, using her own words to seize on her claims that the state aid package was "money laundering." Ted Strickland in OH-Gov is also out with a new ad, hitting John Kasich again on his ties to Lehman Brothers. Two House members facing credible challenges this year are also out with their first ads of the season: Republican Lee Terry in NE-02, focusing on his hatred of pork, and Democrat Martin Heinrich in NM-01, focusing on his constituent services.

• Outside Money: The Washington Post has a fantastic new little tool, in the form of a sortable chart that keeps track of outside expenditures by unions, Republican front groups, assorted weirdos, and all other manner of interest groups outside the two parties. Fun fact: did you know that Robert Kirkland (who spent $2.1 million) is #5 overall in total IEs for 2010 (on behalf of his brother Ron's losing GOP primary run in TN-08), more than the Club for Growth, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or even the DSCC?

• Rasmussen:
• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 46%
• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 40%, Roy Blunt (R) 51%
• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 45%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Afternoon Edition)
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Afternoon Edition) | 46 comments
Here's a bit
from the upcoming Louisiana Senate poll from PPP.

By a 21/44 spread Vitter is not a good model of Christian living
By a 32/22 spread Melancon is a better representative of Christian values
By a 24/17 margin, voters would rather have their daughter marry Melancon

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

The real topline numbers out tomorrow.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

OMG
They actually polled that? PPP is my new favorite pollster, hands down.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Outside Money
is cool, but caution must be exercised. They rate Americans for Job Security as only 60% GOP by partisanship, but only because they gave both for Ken Buck and against Jane Norton in Colorado. They really should be rated 100% GOP
CO-Sen
That line of attack would be brutal in almost every race across the country. But it probably loses some luster in Colorado because Bennet was appointed.
Christian Liberty
Oh my. These idiots have more of a problem with "government" than anything else, no matter how bad! What a frickin' hypocrite. Sadly, if they polled what was more important I think opposing Obama would win every time.
[ Parent ]
Re LA-Sen poll

[ Parent ]
Is
Christian Liberty the one who from time to time contributes to the PPP blog?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Indeed
Check out the nonsense at the link. I bet he said the same about Clinton. Not.
[ Parent ]
Oh Martin Heinrich
So, soooo dreamy. If there was a Dreamboat Caucus in Congress, he would be the Chairman. The ad was pretty cute, too.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
this comment made me go watch the ad
He's pretty awesome all around.  ;)
[ Parent ]
LA-03
I think that race provides the excitement on Saturday night. The WV-Sen primaries are pretty boring, LA-02 will not be as close I think, and the Sen primaries are also boring.  
MI
The fake Tea Party may yet get on the ballot. The attorney who represents their supposed party chairman has said he'll bring the case before the MI Court of Appeals to have the names placed on the ballot:

http://detnews.com/article/201...

36 different papers showed he favor Privitizeing Social Security?
Wow that's impressive for the DSCC to dig that up. Good for them. Yeah it will be hard to walk back on that with all that evidence.

BTW who the fuck is We Ask America and why are giving this GOP polling company credibility here lately? It's a honest question.

Also OR-Gov. Rasmussen gave Dudley a 1 point lead. I forget since it's been a while but it was a main diary what was the other poll SSP discussed that gave Dudley the lead and by how much?

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

SurveyUSA
I'm not sure people are giving We Ask America much credibility. I support full disclosure of all polling. Mainly, so we know who to ignore after November.
[ Parent ]
Second this comment
re: We Ask America. They make Rasmussen's numbers look credible.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
So mot to many people take them seriously?
Why's that? I don't know that's why I ask. I didn't read all the comments of the digest where they showed all those poll numbers for IL.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Because
There is no proff they are a good pollster, as a new pollster. However, where is the proof they are a bad pollster?  
[ Parent ]
They got PA-12 Special Election down correctly
That was shocking.  
[ Parent ]
Well I don't trust Republican pollsters
Or pollsters that release polls specically for a candidate. A candiate or incumbent that does that does so to make them feel that there in the race when there really not. Plus I think there numbers are out of wack in IL.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Partisan pollsters
I doubt all partisan pollsters with the exception of PPP.  There are just too many partisan pollsters pimping numbers for me to find them credible.  That really does not say much considering I find polling in general to be suspect.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Oh I couldn't agree more
Outside of PPP and to an extent M-D I don't trust most polling and your right there are too many partisan pollsters out there pimping numbers for to find them credible and I don't trust polling that made specically for a candidate/incumbent because I believe those polls commissioned specically for the pol the incumbent wants to find the numbers they want to hear so they can say there in a race when there not. I mean Christ in today's afternoon digest there's the GOP candidate running againist NJ Dem Frank Pallone who on her facebook page (i'll say this again, she said it on her facebook page, not to a newspaper or a real media outler) that she's like 7-8 points back. You really expect me to believe that poll? Fuck no. Your right there are too many partisan pollsters out there pimping there numbers to make them seem credible when there really not, point in general: We Ask America. You make a good point Ryan.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
For all pollsters, here's my general take:
Listen to everyone; trust no one.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
How about the fact
They have Toomey and Kirk up by margins nobody else has. Meaning "old" pollsters.
[ Parent ]
This^^^


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
PPP
And Rasmussen (I know) both have Toomey up big.  
[ Parent ]
Neither by 13 though.


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
9
Which is only 4 off.  
[ Parent ]
But still
That 4 points, that is alot believe it or not. They are wrong on this. This polling company is giving him and Kirk bigger leads than they would get from other pollsters, pollsters that we can actually trust (as I know nothing about this polling company, they seem to be a partisan pollster from the GOP and I don't trust partisan polling and I don't like that they don't release all of their work). Shit in recent polls Alexi has gotten 1-2 point leads. I think it's safe to say this company is far off of this and all those polls they have released in IL.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Let me see
The last four polls reported Toomey margins of 2, 9, 8 and 13 points. 2 is only 6 off of 8 and 6 is only 2 more than 4 so are you telling me you also put stock in the Garin Hart Yang poll? Don't tell me it is a Dem internal either since We Ask America are Republican linked. Nope, taken in conjunction with the fact ALL other polling in Illinois shows a tie or a tiny Giannoulias lead we can safely say Rasmussen and PPP are correct in Pennsylvania.
[ Parent ]
A "bad pollster" by definition is one that does not release sample data
You can't be a good pollster without clear transparency of what you are polling (did the poll 1000 guys in barbershop?  who knows).  Even with transparency that doesn't mean you become a good pollster, but if you don't "show your work" you have zero credibility.
[ Parent ]
That's true
I mean take PPP for example. They break down all the specifics for you when they release their memo to a certain poll. They not only tell you how many were polled and the date the poll was taken but they show approvals for the president, where certain age groups are going...i.e they show their work and show it well. That's why we trust pollsters like PPP, Qunipiac and even M-D.

Now i'm taking We Ask America when they released all those IL polls and the PA-Sen poll they did not show their work yes? I didn't read the polls on their site so i'm asking I take it they did not and that's I can't trust pollsters if they release phantom numbers.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
I'm sure at one
point this was covered ... but ...

Sean Swain is running for Governor of Ohio as a third party candidate under the "Zapatisa Party"

We don't need government. What has it done for you? It takes your money and bosses you around and then hands the cash it stole from you to the greedy bastards who force you to drag stones up the side of their pyramid for 16 hours a day or else go hungry. What a fuckin' dream.
Democracy isn't shit, I know. You choose your own slavemaster. Not cool. But just imagine if you could turn your ballot into a bullet and blow the government's brains out, once and for all. Imagine if all the down-sized and out-sourced and fed-up and walked-on from all over the country-everybody tired of taking shit-all got together in one place at one time and hijacked one election...

http://www.seanswain.org/

More seriously, I found that because PPP is asking for questions about Ohio & North Carolina where they will poll this weekend.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

NV-Sen: Angle Agreed With Radio Host That There Are "Domestic Enemies" in Congress.
This was from 2009, shortly after she announced her bid:
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Steve Benen
Brilliantly sums up the problem for Democrats.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

I do think he is wrong in saying that
an argument that says it could be a lot worse under the GOP is not a persuasive argument.  It's unpersuasive when simply said like that, but when coupled with information on how great the stimulus actually was, it should be convincing because it draws the necessary contrasts between the two sides.  If anything, this is the only argument we should be making.  First off, by saying that things would be much worse under GOP control, it automatically puts the GOP on the defense instead of the offense for once.  It then makes them have to explain why things wouldnt be worse under them and they'll simply offer the same bag of bullshit they've always proposed (tax cuts for the rich, lower capital gains taxes, taxes taxes taxes!!!  oh and deregulation), and we can attack them for offering the same things they already did under George Bush.  This does start a "blame game" and could make us look childish, but like hell should the Democrats be taking on the burden of the economy.  Let's start pointing fingers because everyone else already has theirs pointed at us anyway.

The other problem is no one wants to admit voting for these bills because they are unpopular, which is only a self-fulfilling prophecy in this case.  As usual, we cower in fear from our positions instead of marketing them and making them popular.  When we run from our votes on economic matters, all we are doing is ceding to the GOP that they are right, when every economist and the numbers say completely otherwise.

Obama hasnt even had a single fucking presidential address on the economy!!! I wouldve had 10 by now!

Im done ranting now that Im in a thoroughly bad mood now.

[ Parent ]
MO-Sen: sigh
Yes, it's from Rasmussen, but their numbers less outlier-ish these days. With leaners, they have it 54-41 Blunt.

It does seem a tad high. I would have thought Robin's ad blitz would have knocked off a few points from Blunt. Bah.

Of course, the other issue Rasmussen has is that this - like many of their polls - are ridiculous one-day polls that are of somewhat dubious reliability. This was probably an especially poor sample. I don't doubt that Blunt is ahead, but 13 points seems a tad much. 5-7, sure. 13?

Just
look at Blunt's favorability rating.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Carnahan will need to run some more ads then
and make the Blunt's Bailout more effective.  (Bailout Blunt may sound a little catchier, and I'd love to see a post title at RS titled, Please Bailout Blunt, Send him Your Donations!)
[ Parent ]
Conway is gunning for Rand Paul's own game
A campaign e-mail says he's going for a moneybomb on the 7th of September.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Social Security
Cannot we just have some honest candidates on both sides who admit the program is in trouble and that both sides are going to have accept some things they fundamentally oppose if its going to be fixed?  

The Meehan/Lentz debate from the weekend is a great example of both sides being idiots on this issue. I wanted to smack them both as they came off as panders to the geriatric tyranny.  I am just sick of hearing how we cannot cut benefits or raise taxes to pay for them.  I wish there was a Republican or Democrat that admitted that benefits will be cut and taxes will likely have to be raised even if benefits are cut.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

Be careful dude
this stuff got you banned before.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah, seriously
You're a really good contributer when you stick to the horserace stuff, and it would be a shame to lose one of the few R-leaners here.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
A couple of internal
polls to report:

CO-03

Tipton 49% (R)
Salazar 43% (D)

http://www.gjsentinel.com/news...

Democrats bracing for ABQ poll:

A recent SurveyUSA poll shocked the political community when it showed the unknown Barela leading Heinrich 51% to 45%. Heinrich's own polling does not show such a tight race. The Journal poll to come next week will influence the contest. In the unlikely event Barela is ahead, it will rattle the Dems cage mightily and might force open the cash drawers for Barela.

Assessing what people who have had access to Barela's internal polling are telling us, it is more likely that the race will show a several point gap and probably in Heinrich's favor. The congressman remains the favorite but with pressure to run a top-notch campaign that was simply not present there three months ago.

http://joemonahansnewmexico.bl...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

OH 8th, Want to give John Boehner fits???
If money were spent in the right place I know how we could get rid of John Boehner.  But let me say first of all that despite the Dems of that district getting a strong candidate, a retired army captain that would play well in those parts, there is little chance of a Dem getting elected in a straight fight.  But as luck would have it there is a conservative loon in the fray who, if supported, could suck away a lot of votes from Boehner.  Not all voters are happy with a man who polished the shoes of the hedge fund managers in a secret meeting.  Nor are they happy with his other dealings with special interests. Boehner is also on the outs with some of the tea baggers too.  The vote in this district could be split.  If you want to give this clown fits then send your money to the other dog in the manger.

http://www.jimconditjr2010.com/

If this guy got ten percent of the vote I think John Boehner would be yesterday's cold hash.

Rollo "Rob" Weems

I wish, but...
if this guy gets 10% we still need 45% to win and that's just not happening in that district, in this year, without a strong candidate.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
OH 8th Dem is a strong one to sink the John B.
   I still say take ten percent from the John B. and the waves will run over the gunwale and he sinks like a stone.  The dem candidate  Justin Coussoule, an attorney, a West Point graduate and former Army officer is just the man to do something wild like this.  The district stats are not THAT good for John B.  Give the conservatives an alternative and watch what happens.

http://ohio15th.blogspot.com/2...

The republicans have not planned to spend much here I'll bet, they would have to pull money in from other places if they get scared enough.  I tell you it could work !!!

Rollo "Rob" Weems

[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Afternoon Edition) | 46 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox