Crist

Crist's gutsy stance on the "mosque" business may have cost him in this poll.  And, as I said in the other thread, we'll see how good PPP's numbers are in Florida after tonight.

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by: Paleo @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 18:43:46 PM UTC

I don't know, I actually think that Ipsos and Quinnipiac are closer on this one

Than PPP and Mason-Dixon. Even if Rubio is leading, there is no way he has 40% of the vote right now.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 18:45:43 PM UTC

Others have said this

But I really do think Meek will struggle to get into the conversation after today. He will have no money and likely the main reason Crist has lost his lead is because all the attention has been on the Democratic primary. Advantage back to Rubio for now but this has been such a topsy turvy race it probably has several more twists yet.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 19:49:15 PM UTC

What

we need is for more dems to get behind Crist. We need party officials telling people how Crist is their best alternative. Crist needs to make it clear that voting for Meek is the same as voting for Rubio. Rubio is doing well now because Meek is getting more dem support. Let's see what happens after the primary.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 19:52:50 PM UTC

The problem with that argument is that Crist hasn't said he would caucus with Dems

Yes it is more likely that he will caucus with Dems than without, but without even a inkling, Meek is going to have the argument that Democrats should stick with him as the "real" Democrat.

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by: Jaxx Raxor @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 20:07:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There are two problems...

1) politicians who abandon Meek ethics problems and all might suffer a backlash from African-American voters who see one of their own who duly one a primary being abandoned for an elected Republican.

2) You suffer no such problem with Greene who may have even bigger baggage also has more money to unload on Crist and try to consolidate Democratic support.  But he also has no base and even more liabilities when it comes to trying to gather that support.

As for these polls the main thing is how much will the Democratic vote evaporate and go to Crist as the race becomes more of a two man race.

Or will the Democratic nominee gather enough strength to pull over soft or pragmatic Crist voters.  In which case it's probably hello Senator Rubio.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

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by: Taget @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 20:54:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Rubio can get over 40% of the vote than he wins, IMHO

Alan Schlesinger even got 10% of the vote as GOP canidate in CT in 2006.

No way a sitting US Congressman with establishment Dem support does worst than that.

If Rubio can consolidate the GOP vote and polls over 40% he wins.

Crist has to walk a tightrope. He needs to hold some GOP votes while getting Dems to crossover.

If Crist moves right it opens up a path for Meeks to win by splitting the vote on the right allowing a liberal/progressive vote a path to vicotry. If he tries to co-op Meeks it splits the Dem vote and pushes the GOP vote to Rubio.

If Rubio is hitting 40% in polls it means Crist is losing his GOP support.

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by: izengabe @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 20:07:27 PM UTC

Jesus Crist

If you were to ask me which party would win their perspective elections in Florida between the senate and the governors mansion a year ago, I would have said dem-Sen, GOP-Gov. Now it has flipped.

This is some pathetic stuff, but I guess the governors mansion is more important in terms of redistricting, which Florida has been gerrymandered to such a degree it is only bested by Texas. Being that this is a swing state, we have a lot of seats to Gain in 2012 if Sink wins in November.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 20:27:50 PM UTC

This is the poll that the pundits said would occur when Crist went Indy.

A little later than expected but this was the status quo wisdom. That eventually Rubio would pull ahead while Meek and Crist would eat into each others support. I wonder if Meek will get any kind of post-primary bounce he can build off. If he were to all those voters would be coming from Crist.  

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by: FairfaxVA @ Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 22:44:12 PM UTC

Meek

The Democratic leadership cannot throw Meek under the bus unless Obama personally gets involved and does it.  That would be a highly risky move and unlikely to happen as it would further consolidate Republican support around Rubio.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 00:16:08 AM UTC