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SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 8:12 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: Just an FYI: The Tea Party Express has now spent $550K on behalf of Joe Miller - quite a sum in a super-cheap state like Alaska. (That means they've poured in about $200K in just the last week.) Remember, the TPX is the organization that helped power Sharron Angle to victory. Knocking off an incumbent senator is a much bigger task than beating Chicken Lady, of course, but the teabaggers are determined to keep this one interesting. (Also, any day I get to write about Chicken Lady is a good day.)
  • KY-Sen: Rand Paul, subjecting himself to a rare press conference, announced his preferred way of combating drug abuse in Eastern Kentucky. Instead of using federal dollars, he prefers church-based options: "I like the fact that faith is involved, that religion - Christianity - is involved, and I'm not embarrassed to say so. You have to have innovative local solutions to problems." Paul still called for the end of earmarks to fund Operation UNITE, an anti-drug program, which caused some awkwardness for his host, Hopkins County Attorney Todd P'Pool, who has made use of UNITE himself. (And yes, that awesome name is NOT a typo.)
  • NH-Sen: Paul Hodes has a new ad up, featuring music he wrote himself, which continues a theme we've seen elsewhere - namely, referring to Congress as some kind of daycare center for overgrown children. I'm not really sure how effective this characterization really is, given that it's been incumbents who keep deploying it. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB, though the Hodes campaign tells us it's "a significant buy in both the Manchester and Boston media markets" that's going up on both broadcast and cable today.
  • OR-Gov: Good news for Dem John Kitzhaber: The Oregon Progressive Party declined to nominate a candidate for governor, meaning that there won't be anyone on the ballot running to Kitz's left. Jerry Wilson, creator of the Soloflex, had been hoping for the Prog nod, and says he may run a write-in campaign instead.
  • AZ-03: Just a day before the primary, Dan Quayle emerged from his undisclosed potatoe to pen an email on behalf of his embattled, pathetic spawn, Ben. At this point, though, nothing can undo the Shame of the Super-Son.
  • CA-52: Democrat Ray Lutz has ended his 11-day hunger strike, which he launched in an attempt to get Rep. Duncan Hunter to meet him for a series of debates. Hunter actually did say he'd meet for an Oct. 15th debate, though he claims he was planning to accept that date even before Lutz went on his strike. Lutz, of course, is claiming victory - and if this tactic really did have its intended effect, I wonder if we'll ever see anyone else try it again.
  • IA-03: Rep. Leonard Boswell's been hitting Republican Brad Zaun on his flip-floppery over agricultural subsidies, and it seems like he's landed a solid blow. In Iowa, anything less than maximal statism in support of the ethanol industry is usually a political sin, but Zaun couldn't help himself at a teabagger debate earlier this spring. Zaun related a conversation with a farmer, who asked him "What are you going to do for me and the biofuels industry?" Zaun's description of his own response: "Nothing." Boswell's put out his first radio ad of the cycle (NWOTSOTB) featuring this very quote.
  • IL-11: Debbie Halvorson is getting a new campaign manager. Julie Merz, who has previously worked for Dennis Moore and Jim Matheson, is taking over for Travis Worl. It's always hard to say whether moves like this reflect campaign turmoil, a sign that the team is upgrading, or just natural turnover. The only tea leaf we have here is that Worl's departure was announced before Merz's hiring was.
  • LA-02: A good get for Cedric Richmond: New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu just gave the state legislator his endorsement yesterday. Richmond faces fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta in the primary, which is this Saturday (note the unusual date).
  • NV-03: Republican media buying company Smart Media Group says that AFSCME has put down $240K for ads against GOPer Denny Joe Heck. The union hasn't filed an independent expenditure report yet, though.
  • NY-01: Republican George Demos is up with his first TV ad, attempting to out-conservative opponents Randy Altschuler and Ed Cox - and doing his best to make himself unelectable in the general election by painting himself as "pro-life." NWOTSOTB. Meanwhile, Altschuler succeeded in knocking Cox out of the Conservative Party primary, though Cox has vowed to appeal the judge's ruling.
  • NY-25: Republican (and Mama Grizzly) Ann Marie Buerkle says she won't rule out SSP - the bad kind of SSP, of course:
  • "There's so many options when it comes to privatization. I would have to look at each plan that's being proposed... but I would certainly consider looking at it."
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Morning Edition)
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    You made a mistake David
    You said this:

    NV-3 Republican media buying company Smart Media Group says that AFSCME has put down $240K for ads against GOPer Denny Heck. The union hasn't filed an independent expenditure report yet, though.

    I think it should read:

    WA-3 Republican media buying company Smart Media Group says that AFSCME has put down $240K for ads against GOPer Jaime Herrera. The union hasn't filed an independent expenditure report yet, though.

    Also my opinion, Paul suggesting we should use faith based money to fight druge is bad. I am a secular man and think it would be bad to use church money to fight the drug war of Eastern KY. Just my opinion though.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    Paul and the drug issue
    While I have mixed feelings about direct church involvement with this, I don't think that's going to be a problem for Paul in and of itself.  The big problem he's facing is this: as conservative and church-based as many people in W and E Kentucky are, they are not stupid enough to say "Oh, just let the churches take care of the meth problem, and it will be fine."  It's clear Rand Paul doesn't give a shit about this issue (which is as big in Kentucky as anywhere in the country), and made the mistake of using it to further push his uber-libertarian mindset (which applies to almost everything except abortion rights).  People in Kentucky know how big of a problem this is, and want every possible weapon brought to the fight.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh I don't know
    Churches didn't mind their cash going to fights gsys in CA so maybe they won't mind there money going to fight drugs. Of course there could be a line and Paul did cross it, don't know. Either way it's a bad idea since you got it right. The drug problem is a big eipdemic in KY, it's obvious that Paul dosen't give a shit since he went from saying it's not a issue to this. Guess the rogue optimologist keeping going rogue and won't stop.

    BTW I don't think he's like his dead since although I disagreed with most on them Ron Paul had core values and principles. The son although unpredictable like his dad could wind up being a puppr for the NRSCC

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    The issue is not church money, it's that most people, including conservatives, strongly disagree with Paul on government's role......
    Most people want government at all levels actively fighting illicit drugs.  That's just true.  Very few share Paul's vision of "limited government" extending THAT far.

    That's the problem with Paul's view, that he's at odds with most voters on the first principle of government's role in this.

    It's an effective issue for Conway if he messages well.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah your right
    Thinking about. Church goers although happy to give their dough to fight gays and abortions probally won't be happy that there money would specicaly to fight drugs. I say this because people who attend church are obiously againist drugs and would most likely want the government to help out to end the war no matter the costs. Plus if you look at it from a dollar and sense prospective the federal government spend A LOT combating druge and yes churches make alot of money yes but their collection boxes could delpete quickly if it was all getting apent to combat drugs. Leaving them litle money to fund programs like say food banks.

    Yeah if Conway messages this well he can make it a issue he can run with.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Ignore my correction
    I thought it was about Denny Heck but it's not, it's regarding Dina Titus opponent Joe Heck. Thought it was a mistake but it's not. Can't blame me since both Heck's are running in the 3rd district of their states and I forgot the name of Titus opponent. Sorry about that.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Speaking of Denny Heck (WA-03)
    Some growther group (Americans for Prosperity) is running a whole bunch of ads against Heck, ref http://americansforprosperity....

    As shown in the link, the ads they're running are almost as if Denny Heck is an incumbent.... (he hasn't served in political office for nearly 20 years)

    Makes me wonder whether the growthers will be running similar ads in open seats with close PVIs (such as WI-07)


    [ Parent ]
    He hasn't served office in 20 years?
    What the hell made him such a credible candidate since he hasn't been in office since the early 1990's?

    Also your going to have to explain to me what a growther is because I have no idea qhat that means.


    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


    [ Parent ]
    Oh that's what you meant
    I thought it was a conspircy group like the Birthers and Tenthers. As screw them, I never pay attention to them. Never have never will.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Denny Heck - founder of TV-W
    the WA state version of C-SPAN. That's made him into a (partial) self-funder.

    As for the Club for Growth, it's important to pay attention to and understand the tactics of the enemy, if we expect to defeat them.

    So back to my point -- it's certainly a different tack to suggest that Ds running in open seats are essentially the same as incumbents. Will it be an effective tactic?


    [ Parent ]
    If the Club for Growth are using it as a tatic
    I don't think so. CfG for the past two cycles have done more harm than good for the GOP and have no idea how to run a effective strategy. Their plans no matter what has to back the most conservative GOPer even when their not a good fit one bit for the district/state their running in.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    You did not address the question
    I think the CfG have learned from past mistakes. IMO, Pat Toomey is their poster child.

    The question is whether ads CfG affiliated groups like the one cited

    -- can tie D candidates in open seats

    -- to the current Congress.

    My gut says no, but I think CfG types are politically smarter than we give them credit for.  


    [ Parent ]
    The guy who's running it now ain't that bright either
    I think the CfG are not politically smarter than we give them credit for and I agree with you gut. You can't tie the open seat candidates to Congress since they haven't served in Congress yet. You can't tie a guy or girl to a certain political chamber if they never served in that. Hence the Obama-Pelosi ads that never work.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Case
    and point. The CfG backed Sharron Angle during the primary. Luckily for Harry Reid....

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    And look how that's turning out
    I rest my case.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    That still does not address the question
    on whether the given ad is or is not effective strategy.

    Heck, despite his money advantages, has --not-- responded.

    I considered WA-03 lean R based on the primary results. This lack of response from Heck does not help. It's reminiscent of Kerry's late response in '04 to the swiftboat ads.


    [ Parent ]
    i almost did the same thing another digest
    And both Hecks are former state senators too I believe.

    [ Parent ]
    They are both ex-State Senators


    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Wrong Heck
    Denny Heck is the Democratic nominee running to represent WA-3.  Joe Heck is the Republican nominee running to represent NV-3.  

    [ Parent ]
    5 Years After Katrina
    And the people of Louisiana are either forced to commemorate on that sad event, or vote in the midterm election primary. What a world.

    Huh?
    I think New Orleanians are perfectly capable of doing both.

    [ Parent ]
    I was just commenting
    on the 'unusual date' of the primary. I'm guessing that's what was being referenced.

    [ Parent ]
    Ah
    I was thinking the anniversary of Katrina hitting was Sunday. And some states have Saturday elections (apart from Sabbath considerations, they make a lot more sense to me than voting on a weekday), though sure, they are rare. WV's Senate primary is this coming Saturday too.

    [ Parent ]
    Nope
    Katrina anniversary is the 29th. Primary is 28th.  

    [ Parent ]
    AZ-03
    I think the phrase "undisclosed potatoe" is priceless.

    And what does it say about the Elder Quayle that he seems to think that he can just show up, say his son isn't the porn-writing idiot that he is, and it'll all be magically better? Of course, I wouldn't expect less from a guy who's been in the news twice since 1992: once for buying Chrysler (great investment there) and once for showing up to a Bruce Springsteen concert in 2008, then getting offended and storming out when Springsteen started talking about supporting Obama. You have to be pretty damn out of it to be surprised and offended that Bruce Springsteen is a vocal Democrat in 2008.

    I'll never forgive my adopted state for giving this guy a political career, especially because the idiots dumped Birch Bayh to do it, and Evan Bayh is a two-faced weasel because of it. Ehhhh....


    disappointed in the Oregon Progressive Party
    No one is going to be down with O.P.P. this year.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    HA!
    Funny. Most of the (white) guys here don't get it, though.

    [ Parent ]
    more likely
    They are too young.  I assure you more white people bought NBN than other races.

    Also, here's an internal from the Tea Party Republican in NJ-6 that has her down 6.

    http://www.politickernj.com/ba...


    [ Parent ]
    Ah, I'm down with
    I'm down with OPP, yeah you know me.

    And I'm white. And young. Well, wait, I guess 20s is no longer considered young for SSP--you have to be a fetus with all the teenyboppers 'round these parts.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    Ben Quayle
    is "no Jack Kennedy" either.



    I love how they try to out-do each other with the word "Senator"
    Each time one says it, it's laced with more contempt than the time before.

    "You're the one who made the comparison, Senator!"

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    I can't stand libertarians like Paul
    Who live off in some lala land where a society can be run through churches and personal responsibility. The idiocy of such individuals offends me, even though it can amusing to run circles around them in any kind of argument, (especially considering these sorts of people tend to think they are so smart, creative, and original in being anti-government). I'm hoping Paul goes off during the debate and says something so over the top it finally puts Conway into the outright lead prior to any advertising.  

    Looks like I predicted right
    Rubio 40% (R)
    Crist 32% (I)
    Meek 17% (D)

    According to PPP, Democrats are now going to Meek, and Republicans have aligned themselves more with Rubio

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Any Democrat who votes for Meek
    lacks common sense and is throwing away their vote. God I hope Greene wins a low turnout primary today.

    [ Parent ]
    While I support Crist as our best chance
    it is important to respect those Democrats who prefer to vote for a card-carrying Democrat.

    [ Parent ]
    Crist is a Republican. He supported John McCain
    You can't expect Democrats to trust Crist considering his GOP history.

    [ Parent ]
    I can't respect anyone
    Who doesn't have the calculating realpolitik to do whatever they have to to keep Rubio out of the Senate. I've never particularly been a fan of Meek's, and he's a weak candidate with no geographic base or any chance of winning. A wasted vote is a wasted vote, and those people should still be held accountable for wasting their vote rather than trying to put Crist in the Senate.  

    [ Parent ]
    realpolitik = Henry Kissinger
    Kissinger had no principles.

    People with principles sometimes resort to waste in order to live with themselves.

    I hope you don't work for Crist, as IMO your response is the quickest way to get Meek supporters to dig in their heels.


    [ Parent ]
    I don't have anything to do with Crist's campaign
    I know when waste is acceptable, and when it is not. We are not talking about sacrificing hundreds of thousands of human lives for the sole purpose of allowing the U.S. to save face, ala Henry Kissenger, we are talking about the best situation for FL Democrats.

    Meek has no shot at winning. That delusion needs to leave the heads of every Democrat there, that should be the starting point of any discussion. Having established that, you look at the two candidates remaining. Republicans will continue to steadily coalesce around Rubio. I think it would be accurate to predict he'll end up getting around 70% of the Republican vote with Crist getting 25% and Meek getting 5% optimistically. So assuming Crist dominates and gets 60% of independents, he still needs to be able to get around 50% of Democrats in order to defeat Rubio. Crist has no real positions, other than he has tended to be a moderate in his career. Simply put, if Democrats put him over the finish line and have the majority, he will be with the Democrats and be a fairly reliably vote on big legislation in order to shore up his position among his new "party". In a sense, by having the common sense to back Crist the FL-DP puts him in the position of knowing who sent him to Washington and who will send him back if he's good, thus ensuring his loyalty, and thus they get the strongest pseudo-Democratic nominee possible running for Senate and give the party the shot at a crucial pick up at an important time when we need all the votes we can get.


    [ Parent ]
    I would prefer
    not to have Crist... but I guess I'm more of an anti-Rubio right now.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    That's my position as well
    Marco Rubio is not okay.  The tea-baggers will claim victory if they pick up 5 House seats, lose 3 Senate seats, and if Marco Rubio wins.  Well, tea-baggers are maybe even more realistic than that, Eric Erickson will, however.

    [ Parent ]
    And Marco Rubio
    winning obviously sets himself up for something later on.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    I really don't understand the "anti-Meekness" I've seen here all season
    Meek's only chance to win is in fact if Crist comes in third:

    Meek 35
    Rubio 35
    Crist 30

    I think we should be rooting for that scenario!


    [ Parent ]
    I suspect the absolute, best case scenario for Meek is something like...
    GOP - 36%
    Democrat - 35%
    Independent - 29%

    Crist - 15/23/40 = 25%
    Rubio - 80/7/33 = 41%
    Meek - 5/70/27 = 34%

    That is, the novelty of Crist's candidacy ensures him an edge among Indies, but he fails to make the necessary inroads with either party. This model presumes that Meek handily wins both white Democrats and moderate Democrats.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    I
    would not classify it as anti Meek but more as anti Rubio. We are smart and do not want a Senator Rubio. So naturally we support Crist. Meek has no chance to win. None at all.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    That scenario
    is simply not possible. It assumes Meek will consolidate all Democrats, (and he won't, many don't like him; he's just an uninspiring machine politician from Miami whose mother handed him a house seat when she retired and he has ethical issues), while holding his own among independents, while Crist wins independents and basically splits Republicans with Rubio; ain't happening, Rubio is going to win Republicans easily, thus rendering your whole piece their obsolete.  

    [ Parent ]
    Well said
    Meek has no shot of winning whatsoever.  If Crist had dropped out and it was just him versus Rubio, way different story.  No poll has ever showed Meek with a possible route to victory with Crist in the race.

    [ Parent ]
    We'll see tonight
    about PPP's Florida polling.  They have Meek winning by 24 and Scott by 7.  Remember, they got PA-12 wrong.

    [ Parent ]
    But
    They have been almost dead on in most of their statewide polling this cycle.  

    [ Parent ]
    Rubio's consolidation of Republicans
    Seems drastic and a bit much.  I mean he turned his support from Republicans from like 54-23 to 65-20 or something.  In 1 month, that seems like a lot.

    I guess the real question will be can Crist hit Meek and turn Meek voters into Crist voters?  Or would Crist hitting Meek just cause Meek voters to stay home?


    [ Parent ]
    That's the trouble with running as an Indy
    The partisans will explore the novelty of voting for you, but in the end will return home to their own party's candidate. With all Crist's position changing, I really can't see many Republicans voting for him over Rubio come November. He needs to absolutely clean up the Independent and Moderate demographics, and try to hold Meek to the low teens. Lieberman is probably his blueprint: he held the GOP candidate (who was a weaker candidate than Meek) to 10%.  

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Lieberman
    didn't change his positions though. The problem with Crist is he ran right when he was still a Republican and is now running left as an Indy. Also the entire GOP establishment in Connecticut was more or less batting for Lieberman. Not in Florida...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    I fucking hate Florida....
    Although if they give me Alex Sink all will be forgiven with the Sunshine state.

    [ Parent ]

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